Rural Health and Texas Demographic

Characteristics and Trends

2011 Texas Rural Health Forum

September 14, 2011San Antonio, TX

2

Growing States, 2000-2010

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

15.7% of numerical change in U.S.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

3

Percent ChangeDue to

Year* PopulationNumerical

ChangeNatural

IncreaseNet

MigrationPercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- -- -- --1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.091970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.261980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.421990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.152000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.352009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33

*All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009

4

Texas Business-Cycle Index

5

Texas Total Nonfarm EmploymentQuarterly Growth

6

Texas and U.S. Unemployment Rate

7

Texas Residential Permits and Mortgage Rate, 1990-2010

8

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 to 2001

2001 to 2002

2002 to 2003

2003 to 2004

2004 to 2005

2005 to 2006

2006 to 2007

2007 to 2008

2008 to 2009

InternationalState-to-State

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates.

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000-2009

9

Percent of Migrants to Texas by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2009

Net domesti

c migr

ation

International

migrati

onTotal

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

44%24% 33%

28%50% 40%

23% 8% 15%

5%18% 12%

OtherBlackHispanicWhite

67% of all migrants

Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.

(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)

52% of all migrants were international

10

Estimated Domestic Migration (2000-2008) as a Percentage of 2000 Population by County

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Legend-20 to -45%

-19 to -10%

-9 to -5%

-4 to 0%

1 to 5 %

6 to 20%

21 to 30%

31 to 65%

11

Legend0-1%

1-2.5%

2.5-3.5%

3.5-5%

5-10%

Estimated International Migration (2000-2008) as a Percentage of 2000 Population by County

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other

6%

His-panic or Latino38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

13

0-4 yrs

5-9 yrs

10-14 yrs

15-19 yrs

20-24 yrs

25-29 yrs

30-34 yrs

35-39 yrs

40-44 yrs

45-49 yrs

50-54 yrs

55-59 yrs

60-64 yrs

65-69 yrs

70-74 yrs

75-79 yrs

80-84 yrs

85+ yrs

1,200,000 800,000 400,000 0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000

Anglo Male Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Anlgo Female Hispanic Female

Black Female Other Female

Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race and Ethnicity, 2010

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.

14

0-4 yrs

5-9 yrs

10-14 yrs

15-19 yrs

20-24 yrs

25-29 yrs

30-34 yrs

35-39 yrs

40-44 yrs

45-49 yrs

50-54 yrs

55-59 yrs

60-64 yrs

65-69 yrs

70-74 yrs

75-79 yrs

80-84 yrs

85+ yrs

800000 400000 0 400000 800000

Anglo Male Anlgo Female

Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race and Ethnicity, 2010

0-4 yrs

5-9 yrs

10-14 yrs

15-19 yrs

20-24 yrs

25-29 yrs

30-34 yrs

35-39 yrs

40-44 yrs

45-49 yrs

50-54 yrs

55-59 yrs

60-64 yrs

65-69 yrs

70-74 yrs

75-79 yrs

80-84 yrs

85+ yrs

800000 400000 0 400000 800000

Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Hispanic Female Black FemaleOther Female

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.

15

Total Population by County, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Legendco48_d00'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10

82 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,001

100,001 - 500,001

500,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 - 4,100,000

16

Numeric Change of Total Population by County, 2000-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Legendco48_d00'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

17

Percent Change of Total Population by County, 2000-2010

Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010

-20%-0%

1%-10%

10.1-25%

25.1%-50%

50.1%-82%

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys

-3 to -0.5

-0.49 to -.001

0

.001 to .5

.51-2.1

Percent of Population Less Than 18 Years of Age Living Under Poverty During Past 12 Months

by County, 2005-2009

5-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-55%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

$18,000-30,000

$ 30,000-35,000

$ 35,000-40,000

$40,000-50,000

$ 50,000-76,000

Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

20

Percent of People Below Poverty in the Past 12 Months (for whom poverty status is determined)

by Metro and Non-Metro Area and County, 2005-2009

Metropolitan Areasless than 10%

10% to 15%

15.1% to 20%

greater than 20%

Non-Metropolitan Areasless than 10%

10% to 15%

15.1% to 20%

greater than 20%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

21

Percent of People Lacking Health Insurance Coverage by Metro and Non-Metro Area, 2009

Metropolitan Areasless than 20%

20.0% to 22.9%

23.0% to 25.9%

over 26%

PUMAs

Non-Metropolitan Areasless than 20%

20.0% to 22.9%

23.0% to 25.9%

over 26%

Metropolitan Areasless than 20%

20.0% to 22.9%

23.0% to 25.9%

over 26%

PUMAs

Non-Metropolitan Areasless than 20%

20.0% to 22.9%

23.0% to 25.9%

over 26%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 American Community Survey .Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

The Census Bureau estimates that in 2009 Texas had the highest uninsured rate in the country, at 26.1%, or 6.4 million people.

Texas also had the highest uninsured rate of children, with 17.4%, or 1.28 million children lacking insurance.

22

Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008Physcians per 1,000 persons aged 65+

'Age 65p County$'.Physper1k65p0

GT 0 - LE 5

GT 5 - LE 10

GT 10 - LE 20

GT 20

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates. Texas Medical Board.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

23

Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2000'PROJECTIONS X$'.phys001

0

.01-.5

.51-1

1.1-1.5

1.51-4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. Texas Medical Board. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys

-3 to -0.5

-0.49 to -.001

0

.001 to .5

.51-2.1

Physician Rate Physician Rate Change, 2000-2010

Not Border Border Not Border BorderNon-Metro Non-Metro Metropolitan Metropolitan Total

020406080

100120140160180200

95

53

175

110

159

2009Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Estimates.Department of State Health Services. Health Professions Resource Center Database.

Physicians per 100,000 byMetro & Border Status of Counties, 2009

24

25Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections.

Year

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040

26

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

AngloBlackHispanicOther

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario.

Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, 2000-2040

2040 PopulationP_40

36 - 1000

1001 - 10000

10001 - 50000

50001 - 100000

100001 - 500000

500001 - 1000000

1000001 - 8000000

Projected Population by Texas Counties, 2040

Source: Texas State Data Center. Vintage 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

28

Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2009 Estimated

Percent of the Total Population aged 65 Pct 2009TOT_POPP9

LE 10%

GT 10% - LE 15%

GT 15% - LE 20%

GT 20% - LE 25%

GT 25%

Total Population aged 65 plus 2009TOT_POP9

LE 5,000

GT 5,000 - LE 15,000

GT 15,000 - LE 25,000

GT 25,000 - LE 100,000

GT 100,000

Percent 65 Years and Older Population 65 Years and Older

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Estimates.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected

2000 Count 2040 Projection

Percent 65 Years Old and Older< 11.9 (n=66)

12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)

15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)

20.0 or more (n=38)

Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.

Percent 65 Years Old and Older< 11.9 (n=2)

12.0 - 14.9 (n=19)

15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)

20.0 or more (n=154)

Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population Estimatesand Projections Program, 2006 Projections.

<11.912.0 – 14.915.0 – 19.920.0 or more

29Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count. Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

30

Projected Population Among Older Texans

20002003

20062009

20122015

20182021

20242027

20302033

20362039

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Age 65-74 Age 75-85 Age 85+

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00AngloHispanicAfrican AmericanOther

Projection of Ethnicity of Texas PopulationAged 65 Years and Older, 2000 to 2040

31Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.

32

Projected Increase of Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006-2040

Source: Texas State Data Center. Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.

33

Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity for Texas, 2010-2040

2010

2020

2030

2040

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

Total Latino Anglo African American Other

Pro

ject

ed P

erso

ns w

ith D

iabe

tes

Source: Office of the State Demographer. 2006 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.

34

Projected Percent of the Adult Population with Diabetes by County, 2010 and 2040

LE 15%

15-20%

20-25%

25-30%

30-37.5%

2010 2040

35

Demographics and Destiny

36

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.