Russia 110106

Basic Political Developments Russian Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas Eve

o Patriarch Kirill presents Christmas greetings to Russianso 7 thousand policemen to oversee public order in Moscow on Christmas

Day EU, China, Russia urged not to visit Iran – envoys: Several Western diplomats in

New York, among them European officials, said on condition of anonymity that Moscow and Beijing were being actively discouraged from attending since it could undermine the united front of the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany on Iran's nuclear issue.

Representatives of Russia and Iran discussed the legal status of Caspian Sea - , the question of the legal status of the Caspian Sea was raised during a meeting with Iran's ambassador in Moscow, Seyed Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi Special Envoy of Russia on the Caspian Alexander Golovin.

Karabakh dispute solving needed for reactivation of Jolfa-Moscow railway - Houshang Fakher made the comment Wednesday evening in a meeting with the Head of the Joint Iran-Russia Chamber of Commerce Rajab Safarev, further pointing out that the railroad in question used to be an appropriate route for both passengers and for transferring cargo.

Russian officer killed at Gabala radar station o Russian major killed at Azerbaijani radar station

U.S. senators blast Russia for opposition leader Nemtsov's jail term - United States senators John McCain and Joe Lieberman released a statement on Wednesday, lambasting Russia over the jailing of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov for 15 days, McCain's website said.

Russia ratifies uranium agreement with Mongolia - The agreement was signed last August, following talks between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev with his Mongolian counterpart Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj.

Russian oil companies put forward additional conditions on the pricing formula of duty-free oil for Belarus - Meanwhile, members of the Belarusian oil market informed that during the talks the Russian Tax proposed to lay a duty free oil pricing formula an additional $ 45 per 1 ton. In their view, it would allow Russian suppliers to ensure equal profitability in the supply of oil in all directions. According to the agency's interlocutor, the Belarusian side does not agree to these terms. Minsk insists on a literal enforcement of the norms laid down in the oil agreements signed as part of a SES and ratified by the Belarusian parliament.

Smolensk anniversary without Pres Komorowski? - It is still not known whether Bronislaw Komorowski will take part in the one year anniversary ceremony of the presidential plane crash in Smolensk last April.

o Poland hopes it won't have to prepare its own report on Kaczynski crash - Poland hopes the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) will take into account its remarks on a draft report on the Smolensk air crash, in which case it won’t have to prepare its own report, the Polish Justice Minister Krzysztof Kwiatkowski has told reporters.

Arctic countries draft deal on search, rescue - The deal was drawn up by foreign ministers from Canada, the United States, Russia, Denmark, Greenland, Finland, Sweden and Norway -- the eight members of the Arctic Council. "Officials of the eight Arctic Council concluded negotiations on an agreement on cooperation on search and rescue in the Arctic in Rejkyavik, Iceland on Dec. 16," Canadian foreign ministry spokeswoman Laura Markle said.

Presidential administration denies St. Sofia under control of Moscow Patriarchate - Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Ukraine, Hanna Herman has said that the information about the transfer of St. Sofia Cathedral under the control of Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, which is subordinate to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) is not true.

Yet another icebreaker sent to rescue ice-nipped shipso Icebreaker attempting to rescue three ships nipped in iceo Russian icebreaker clears path to release trapped ships in Okhotsk sea

Chechen woman arrested on suspicion of plotting bombing in Moscowo A Chechen woman suspected of a possible terror attack in Moscow

detained in Volgograd Moscow mayor lambastes utilities services for poor snow removal Karelian leader outlines radical energy shift - Self-sufficiency of the alternative

energy sources will replace the region’s current major imports of coal and fuel oil, on which the region spends “huge money”, the regional leader stressed. It will also give a major environmental bonus, he added.

.RF (.РФ) Domains Have Strings Attached: Develop or Else - If you don’t develop your preregistered Russian .РФ domains, you can lose them according to Russian Minister of Communications and Mass Communications Minister Igor Shchegolev.

Medvedev lauds Russian ice hockey success Teams lose and officials win - 2010 was not a good year for Russian sports teams,

but a great one for sports officials. The Moscow News looks at some memorable events in sport.

Time to get tough on the Kremlin crooks and bullies - The ‘wet West's' message to the Russian leadership is clear: we don't really mind what you do, and even if we did mind, we wouldn't and couldn't do anything.

Dissent Turns Into a Solo Act - Pro-Kremlin youth groups are trying to thwart a vow by opposition members to picket daily outside Moscow City Hall and the jail where Mr. Nemtsov, who was a first deputy prime minister in the government of former President Boris N. Yeltsin, and a few other opposition leaders are being held.

Political Pragmatism - Russia Is Reaping the Economic Benefits of a Change in Approach to Elections in the Near Abroad

Russia: Central Asian Labor Migrants Facing Uncertain Year - There is skepticism, however, whether Putin’s new decree is enforceable. In Dushanbe, the IOM’s Malika Yarbabaeva expects it "won’t result in the mass return of migrants from Russia." A similar law from 2007 was never effectively implemented, she argues, noting that only 17 percent of all migrants live legally in Russia, highlighting the Moscow’s weak control over the state bureaucracy.

Lurching Toward Militarization: Russian Defense Spending in the Coming Decade - By Stephen Blank

A Russian woman stands, alone, for her rights - By Kathy Lally

National Economic Trends Fitch Says Russia Economy Could Put ‘Upward Pressure’ On Rating Russia freezes timber export duties at current level until WTO membership

Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions Interros not to buy back Norilsk Nickel's shares NMZK plans investment to increase output and expand product range Rosatom Sets Interest Margin on $400 Million Pre-Export Loan

Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory) Russian ex-navy officers to work for Shtokman PKN ORLEN Inks Deal With Lukoil Polska For Fuel Sales - Quick Facts Russia to aid Lebanon in natural gas? - Russian energy company Stroitransgaz is

among the 19 foreign companies investigating a natural gas pipeline along the Mediterranean coast, Russia's news agency ITAR-Tass reports.

OilEdge: A 'long game' in the Arctic... - The USGS has claimed it could hold some 90bn barrels of untapped oil, equal to Russia's total known reserves, and suggested the area may have three times as much untapped natural gas as oil; their figures are said to be the first credible estimate of the petroleum available north of the Arctic Circle.

Gazprom The Gazprom Cables - 'Not a Competitive Global Company' - Gas giant Gazprom

was meant to catapult Russia back into its role as a global superpower. Executives dreamed of the "most valuable company in the world." But secret cables from the US Embassy in Moscow provide a different picture: The Americans consider the mega firm to be chaotically organized and corrupt.

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Full Text Articles

Basic Political Developments

Russian Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas Evehttp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/01/06/38864100.html

Jan 6, 2011 05:59 Moscow Time

As Orthodox Christians around the world are marking Christmas Eve Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia Kirill will conduct a Divine service in Moscow Thursday before leading an all-night Christmas vigil in the Christ the Savior’s Cathedral.

The Russian Orthodox Church is traditionally joined in Christmas celebrations by the  Orthodox Churches of Jerusalem, Serbia and Georgia, Mt. Athos monasteries, Eastern rite Catholics and some Protestants.

Patriarch Kirill presents Christmas greetings to Russianshttp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/01/06/38866080.html

Jan 6, 2011 09:40 Moscow Time

Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia Kirill presented his traditional Christmas greetings to Russians. In his message, he urged people to remember that every man is God’s unique creation. Christ showed us the example of life according to God’s concept of man. This example is a reliable signpost helping us not to lose our way and find the only right direction to full-fledged life on Earth and to eternity, His Holiness said. The Patriarch’s Christmas message has been posted on the Moscow Patriarchate’s web site in 20 languages. The Russian Orthodox Church, the Church of Jerusalem, the Serbian and Georgian Orthodox Churches, Athos, the Far-Eastern and Eastern Catholic Churches are celebrating Christmas on the night of January 6 to 7.

7 thousand policemen to oversee public order in Moscow on Christmas Day

http://rian.ru/moscow/20110106/318169488.html

GOOGLE TRANSLATON

06/01/2011 11:16MOSCOW, Jan. 6 - RIA Novosti. Moscow police on Christmas Eve to strengthen the protection of churches, just to ensure order and security, involved about 7,000 police officers, told RIA Novosti Head of Information metropolitan police department Viktor Biryukov."Police took under special protection of 268 functioning monasteries, temples and churches of the capital, where services will be held on the occasion of Christmas. Nearly every church duty police patrols, only involves about 7,000 employees," - said Biryukov.He noted that on January 7 holiday festivities will be held on the colored Boulevard. Particular attention will be paid to security in the areas adjacent to the Cathedral of Christ the Savior, Epiphany Cathedral, Novodevichy and St. Daniel's monastery.Last year, the celebration of Christmas and the festivities attended by more than 160 thousand people.Biryukov said that the Moscow police continue to operate in emergency mode.For the coordination of deployed forces established an operational headquarters, headed by the commander of the Moscow riot police OMON, Vyacheslav Khaustov.

EU, China, Russia urged not to visit Iran – envoyshttp://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-53950920110105

2:08am IST

By Justyna Pawlak and Louis Charbonneau

BRUSSELS/UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The European Union, Russia and China should reject Iran's invitation to visit its atomic sites this month just ahead of key talks, since that is a job for the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Western diplomats said on Wednesday.

Several Western diplomats in New York, among them European officials, said on condition of anonymity that Moscow and Beijing were being actively discouraged from attending since it could undermine the united front of the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany on Iran's nuclear issue.

"We would be disappointed if Russia, or China or the European Union were to go," said a senior Western diplomat in New York.

"Some may want to go," the diplomat added. "We certainly would not be encouraging people to go. Indeed we would be discouraging people from going."

Other diplomats confirmed that Moscow and China were being urged not to attend but said it was unclear whether Russian and Chinese delegates would go. Russia and China have reluctantly supported four rounds of U.N. sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program but worked hard to water them down.

Other invitees included Brazil and Turkey, which voted against a new round of U.N. sanctions against Iran in June. Countries like the United States, Britain, France and Japan, which voted for the sanctions, did not receive invitations.

The European Commission said it had yet to reply to the invitation sent to some ambassadors, including the EU's, accredited to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, weeks before a second round of talks between Iran and six world powers on its disputed nuclear ambitions.

That second round of talks is tentatively scheduled for Jan. 21, Western diplomats in New York said.

A Dec. 27 letter from Iran's IAEA Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh to Hungary, which holds the rotating presidency of the 27-nation EU, invited the Hungarian IAEA envoy "to pay a visit to Iran's nuclear sites" on Jan. 15-16.

"Meeting with high-ranking officials during the visit to Iran is envisaged," said Soltanieh's letter, which was seen by Reuters. "The round-trip tickets, transportation, accommodation shall be arranged and paid for by my government."

EU TO PREPARE RESPONSE

The EU said inspections should be carried out by specialists from the IAEA, not by national ambassadors to the agency who were invited by Tehran.

"We haven't answered the letter," a European Commission spokesman told a regular news briefing on Wednesday, after being asked if the EU had accepted or rejected Tehran's offer.

"But what we want to underline is that there is a process going on and it is for the IAEA to inspect the Iranian nuclear facilities ... . They have people to inspect them."

Hungary, which holds the EU presidency through June 30, said EU governments would prepare a joint response with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

The bloc's hesitation to quickly accept the offer raised the possibility it would decline. Diplomats in New York said it was highly unlikely that the EU would agree to go on the trip.

The letter did not say who else had been invited. But diplomats said other invitees included China, Russia, Egypt, Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, Algeria, Turkey and the Arab League. Among those not invited were Australia, the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Germany and Japan, the envoys said.

Iran's invitation raised questions in the West as to whether it constituted a genuine step towards more nuclear transparency or a public relations stunt meant to divide major powers and buy time for further atomic advances.

The United States and Britain -- two of the major Western powers engaged in diplomacy to resolve the row over Iran's intentions -- dismissed the gesture.

Britain said "a tightly controlled visit of selected facilities is unlikely to provide the assurances needed by the international community" about Iran's nuclear plans.

One European diplomat told Reuters that it was an attempt to split the six powers that have been trying for years to persuade Tehran to halt its uranium enrichment program in exchange for an offer of economic and political incentives.

The West suspects Iran's nuclear program is directed at developing bombs. Tehran says it is for peaceful energy only and has pressed ahead with the program despite U.N. sanctions.

The IAEA has repeatedly said that Iran's refusal to allow unfettered inspections beyond declared nuclear sites has prevented it from confirm that Iran's program is peaceful.

Representatives of Russia and Iran discussed the legal status of Caspian Seahttp://www.1news.az/region/Iran/20110105103102049.html05.01.2011 10:31MOSCOW, Jan. 5 - 1NEWS.AZIran believes that the continuation of consultations among littoral countries will accelerate the achievement of a final decision on the legal status of the Caspian Sea.As the 1news.az with reference to Fars News, the question of the legal status of the Caspian Sea was raised during a meeting with Iran's ambassador in Moscow, Seyed Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi Special Envoy of Russia on the Caspian Alexander Golovin.The parties discussed the results of the summit of Caspian littoral states, held November 18 in Baku.During the meeting M. Sajjad expressed the hope that the ongoing consultations between the Caspian countries to accelerate implementation of the agreement adopted at the summit in Baku and will facilitate the achievement of a final decision and consensus on the legal status of the Caspian Sea.For its part, Golovin said that the summit in Baku was successful.

Karabakh dispute solving needed for reactivation of Jolfa-Moscow railwayhttp://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20110106054327

Tabriz - Deputy Head of Tabriz Chamber of Commerce said here Wednesday prerequisite for reactivation of Jolfa-Moscow railway is solving the Karabakh dispute.

Houshang Fakher made the comment Wednesday evening in a meeting with the Head of the Joint Iran-Russia Chamber of Commerce Rajab Safarev, further pointing out that the railroad in question used to be an appropriate route for both passengers and for transferring cargo.

He added, 'Even before the victory of the Islamic Revolution 400 trailer loads of goods used to be transited through this railroad each day.'

Fakher said that the lingering Karabakh dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia republics has led to the destruction of the railroad, asking for the cooperation and contributions of the Russians for reactivation of the railroad.

Fakher reiterated, 'Keeping in mind the volume of Iran-Russia trade, the route in question has the capacity of transiting 1.000 trailer loads of goods per day.'

Referring to the high cost of road transit, particularly due to the increased price of fuel in Iran due to abrupt deleting of the fuel subsidies by the IRI government, he said, 'Under

the current conditions the rail transport is the best way of transiting goods due to its low cost.'

The Head of the Joint Iran-Russia Chamber of Commerce, too, in the meeting referred to the role that the westerners play in continuation of the Karabakh dispute, arguing, 'The west is worried lest if the Karabakh dispute is solved Iran's role in solving the world problems would be increased and become more effective.'

Safarev added that he believes the matter cannot be solved resorting to economic solutions, as it is in need to political solutions.

He meanwhile stressed, 'It does not make sense logically that this strategic railroad would remain shut down due to that dispute for such a long period of time.'

Safarev added, 'This railroad had facilitated both sides access to the other ends' markets and can once again improve the economies of many countries along its path.'

He announced the Russian Railway Company's readiness to contribute to the reactivation of the Jolfa-Moscow railroad.

Safarev in the meeting also proposed that a periodical would be published to introduce the economic capabilities of the various Iranian provinces and that Tabriz and Moscow would sign a letter of understanding for the establishment of both sides' business offices in both cities.

Responding to the deputy head of Tabriz Chamber of Commerce for facilitating transfer of hard currently, he announced, 'A conference on Iran-Russia banking relations would be held at Moscow Chamber of Commerce next week where the two countries' banking relations would be discussed in details.'

© IRNA 2011

/TRANSLATED FROM RUSSIAN/

Russian officer killed at Gabala radar station

http://www.rian.ru/incidents/20110106/318174265.html

06/01/2011 11:33MOSCOW, Jan. 6 - RIA Novosti. In Azerbaijan, at the Gabala radar station an officer was murdered, according to APA, with reference to the police station in Gabala district.The incident was recorded on January 2 this year. Employee of the radar station, a Russian officer, 47-year-old Maj. Sergey Grachev was murdered by his colleague, whose name was not disclosed.The criminal case is under incestigation by the military prosecutor of Azerbaijan.

Russian major killed at Azerbaijani radar stationhttp://www.news.az/articles/society/29361

Thu 06 January 2011 08:50 GMT | 9:50 Local Time

A Russian officer has been killed at Gabala Radar Station in western Azerbaijan, local police report.

Major Sergey Mikhailovich Grachev, 47, who served at the radar station, was killed by a fellow serviceman on 2 January, according to Gabala District Police.

The name of the murderer has not been made public.

U.S. senators blast Russia for opposition leader Nemtsov's jail termhttp://en.rian.ru/world/20110106/162055929.html

United States senators John McCain and Joe Lieberman released a statement on Wednesday, lambasting Russia over the jailing of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov for 15 days, McCain's website said.

Several opposition leaders were detained a few hours before the beginning of 2011 during a sanctioned rally in downtown Moscow on the last day of 2010. Police said the protestors tried to break through a police cordon and disobeyed instructions. Some, including Nemtsov, were subsequently given short jail terms.

"While people around the world gathered last week to celebrate New Year's Eve, the Russian government arrested almost 70 individuals in Moscow as they peacefully sought to exercise their basic constitutional right to freedom of assembly," the American senators' statement said.

"We are deeply disappointed by the arrest of former Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov and other members of the opposition, and by the unjust prison sentences they have received," it said.

Nemtsov, a staunch critic of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, in an interview with the liberal Moscow radio station Ekho Moskvy called the sentence "mockery of common sense" and said he would challenge it.

The U.S. senators also said: "What makes this episode all the more shameful and outrageous is that the Moscow municipal government had granted a license for the rally at which these individuals were evidently arrested."

"In this respect, the treatment of Mr. Nemtsov and other members of the opposition should provide a stark warning to the rest of the world about the disregard for rule of law that has come to characterize contemporary Russia," it said.

"Despite the start of a new year, it seems the same old culture of legal nihilism continues to reign in Russia."

Earlier U.S. National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer expressed disappointment with Nemtsov's arrest.

Reacting to his criticism, deputy head of the Russian lower house's international committee, Alexander Kozlovsky, on Tuesday urged the United States to respect Russia's court rulings, insisting that Nemtsov was arrested and then jailed for disobedience to police rather than for rallying.

McCain earlier repeatedly called on the U.S. administration to treat Russia with caution. He is an opponent of the much heralded Russian-American "reset."

WASHINGTON, January 6 (RIA Novosti)

Russia ratifies uranium agreement with Mongoliahttp://en.rian.ru/russia/20110106/162057690.html

12:17 06/01/2011

Russia has ratified an agreement with Mongolia to set up a joint uranium mining company, Dordon Uran, the Kremlin said on Thursday.

The agreement was signed last August, following talks between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev with his Mongolian counterpart Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj.

Dordon Uran is expected to produce 2,000 tons per year.

Terms and conditions for the company were agreed between Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Mongolian counterpart Sukhbaataryn Batbold in December.

MOSCOW, January 6 (RIA Novosti)

Russian oil companies put forward additional conditions on the pricing formula of duty-free oil for Belarus

http://www.interfax.by/news/belarus/85865

GOOGLE TRANSLATION

06.01.11 / 10:25Belarusian refiners still cannot agree with Russian suppliers of oil pricing formula, which will come into the republic in 2011, Belneftekhim told Interfax-West."Duty-free oil to Belarusian refineries have not yet come. Negotiations are in progress to discuss pricing issues. The Belarusian side in these negotiations involving our refineries, Belneftekhim and the Belarusian Oil Company, the Russian - oil companies, the owners of resources," - shared the concern.Meanwhile, members of the Belarusian oil market informed that during the talks the Russian Tax proposed to lay a duty free oil pricing formula an additional $ 45 per 1 ton.In their view, it would allow Russian suppliers to ensure equal profitability in the supply of oil in all directions.According to the agency's interlocutor, the Belarusian side does not agree to these terms. Minsk insists on a literal enforcement of the norms laid down in the oil agreements signed as part of a SES and ratified by the Belarusian parliament."On the eve of New Year in Moscow were quite tense negotiations, which have not been successful. Now in Russia, Christmas and New Year holidays, so the talks temporarily suspended", - told members of the oil market.In this regard, the concern noted that Belneftekhim not in position to comment on the Russian side during these negotiations.At the same time in the Group stressed that in 2011 oil supplies from Russia will "definitely, duty-free." To date, according to a representative of Belneftekhim, "the situation with the temporary suspension of oil deliveries from Russia does not cause concern." "The plants are quite large carry-overs from last month, which is enough for about 20 days work at full capacity," - said the representative of the group.He stressed that "taking into account available stocks of crude oil and the Christmas holidays the negotiation process may be delayed."As reported earlier, Belarus and Russia on December 9 signed an intergovernmental agreement on the order of payment and transfer of export duties (other duties, taxes and charges having equivalent effect) when exporting from the territory of the Republic of Belarus from the customs territory of the Customs Union of crude oil and certain categories of goods produced from oil. "This agreement allows Belarus to receive free of duties and quotas oil and oil products from Russia. From under the agreement is derived processing oil from Venezuela and other countries, which will be imported under a special customs regime, providing for a mandatory re-export of products derived from this raw material.The agreement came into force after ratification by the Minsk package of 17 agreements on creation of the Single Economic Space (SES) of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan. Belarusian parliament has ratified these 17 agreements, as well as bilateral

intergovernmental agreement on the division of export duties on crude oil and petroleum products, December 21-22, 2010.In 2011, according to a draft fuel balance of the Union State, the supply of oil from Russia to Belarus should make 21.7 million tons. In this case, the balance will be indicative, guaranteed volume of imports it is not spelled out.

Smolensk anniversary without Pres Komorowski?http://www.thenews.pl/international/artykul146888_smolensk-anniversary-without-pres-komorowski.html

06.01.2011 07:17

It is still not known whether Bronislaw Komorowski will take part in the one year anniversary ceremony of the presidential plane crash in Smolensk last April.

Professor Roman Kuzniar, a presidential aide specialising in international affairs, told Polish Radio that no decision has been reached on Komorowski’s attendance at any such planned event, as there are still a number of issues that remain unresolved concerning the ongoing investigation into the crash.

“There are certain elements in the explanation as to the cause of the catastrophe that are unknown to us, and none of us know if there will be a suitably clear situation by that time,” Kuzniar said.

The comment comes as the Russian-led Interstate Aviation Committee (MAK) has yet to publish its final draft of the Smolensk report, and may have been prompted after an announcement made by Poland’s Justice Minister Krzysztof Kwiatkowski, that if the MAK report does not take into account the opinions submitted by a Polish 150-page report, then third parties may be called upon to also look into the investigation’s findings.

However, Kuzniar did say that President Komorowski’s visit to Smolensk for the anniversary would partially depend on the stance of the families of the victims of the plane crash, underlining that Komorowski would not want to do anything that would “cause negative emotions.”

During the visit of Russian president Dmitry Medvedev to Warsaw last December, it was decided that both heads of state would act as patrons of the one year anniversary of the Smolensk catastrophe.

The Russian president invited Bronislaw Komorowski for an official state visit to Moscow. After the announcement, media speculation pointed to the meeting taking place on 10 April 2011 in Smolensk.

Talking to Polish Radio, Roman Kuzniar stated that he still believes that there are good intentions on behalf of the Russian president to commemorate the anniversary. (jb)

Poland hopes it won't have to prepare its own report on Kaczynski crashhttp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/01/06/38866234.html

Jan 6, 2011 09:52 Moscow Time

Poland hopes the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) will take into account its remarks on a draft report on the Smolensk air crash, in which case it won’t have to prepare its own report, the Polish Justice Minister Krzysztof Kwiatkowski has told reporters.

Earlier, Poland criticized the draft presented by the committee in December, arguing that it did not reflect all causes that led to the crash.

At the same time, Warsaw signaled that this did not mean that the ultimate version would be rejected.

Poland’s presidential jet carrying President Lech Kaczynski, his wife and more than 90 senior Polish dignitaries crashed near Smolensk last April, killing all passengers and crew.    

Arctic countries draft deal on search, rescuehttp://www.edmontonjournal.com/Arctic+countries+draft+deal+search+rescue/4068090/story.html 

Canada says it will 'consider' ratifying agreement Agence France-Presse January 5, 2011 10:00 PM

Eight Arctic countries are poised to sign a multilateral treaty to coordinate search and rescue operations in the region, a Canadian official said Wednesday.

The draft agreement will also divide the Arctic into specific search and rescue areas, with each nation legally responsible for its own territory, according to Icelandic officials.

The deal was drawn up by foreign ministers from Canada, the United States, Russia, Denmark, Greenland, Finland, Sweden and Norway -- the eight members of the Arctic Council.

"Officials of the eight Arctic Council concluded negotiations on an agreement on cooperation on search and rescue in the Arctic in Rejkyavik, Iceland on Dec. 16," Canadian foreign ministry spokeswoman Laura Markle said.

The ministers will "consider" ratifying the treaty at the Arctic Council ministerial meeting in Nuuk, Greenland in May, Markle noted.

Arctic countries have intensified discussions on how to manage the economic opportunities and protect the fragile ecosystem in the frozen North, as the Arctic sea ice melts away and companies line up to drill for oil and gas.

Arctic expert and international law professor Michael Byers praised the deal, saying it would help ensure that "lives are not lost because of a situation of disorganization."

"There are people who might see this as the Arctic countries trying to sew up the Arctic and keep China and the European Union out, but there's nothing in this treaty that seeks to extend jurisdiction," Byers, a professor at the University of British Columbia, said.

"The signal to the rest of the world is not one of confrontation or challenge, but rather of reassurance that if you are on an airliner flying from Beijing to New York and you are forced to crash land somewhere in the Arctic, there is a pre-agreed mechanism for the different countries to respond, to pool their aircraft and their ships to coordinate to save lives," Byers explained.

Byers warned that Canada in particular would need to drastically upgrade its capabilities to become rescue-ready. "Canada is the worst-equipped of any of the Arctic countries with respect to search and rescue, when you take into account that 40 per cent of Canada is Arctic and Canada is the second largest country on earth." Byers said.

© Copyright (c) The Edmonton Journal

Presidential administration denies St. Sofia under control of Moscow Patriarchatehttp://www.kyivpost.com/news/nation/detail/94208/

Yesterday at 20:08 | Interfax-Ukraine

Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Ukraine, Hanna Herman has said that the information about the transfer of St. Sofia Cathedral under the control of Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, which is subordinate to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow

Patriarchate (UOC-MP) is not true.

She said this in response to an open letter by Head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church Cardinal Liubomyr Husar addressed to Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, in which Husar expressed concern that such a transfer would make the St. Sofia Cathedral the church of UOC-MP, which will eliminate the other three branches of the Ukrainian church. Such a step could aggravate the religious conflicts, Cardinal Husar said.

So, Herman stressed that the issue of subordinating the Sofia Cathedral to Kyiv Pechersky Lavra was not raised, and that they only talked about the transfer of the Cathedral under the patronage of the Ministry of Culture.

Yet another icebreaker sent to rescue ice-nipped ships

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=15838431

06.01.2011, 08.47

MOSCOW, January 6 (Itar-Tass) - Yet another icebreaker, the Krasin, has been sent out in assistance to the icebreaker Admiral Makarov to rescue ships nipped in ice in the Sea of Okhotsk.

A Russian Transport Ministry press service official has told Itar-Tass, "In view of the heavy ice situation and for the purposes of ensuring the safety and a guaranteed release of the fishing boats from the ice-nip, the icebreaker Krasin set out from De -Kastri port in the Tatar Strait late on Wednesday night in assistance to the icebreaker Admiral Makarov".

Icebreaker attempting to rescue three ships nipped in ice

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=15838412&PageNum=0

06.01.2011, 08.31

VLADIVOSTOK, January 6 (Itar-Tass) - An operation to rescue three ships nipped in the ice in the Sakhalin Gulf of the Sea of Okhotsk begins Thursday.

The depot ship Sodruzhestvo, the transport refrigerator Bereg Nadezhdy (shore of hope), and the research vessel Professor Kisiwetter were nipped in ice on December 30, last year.

The high-powered icebreaker Admiral Makarov of the Far Eastern sea shipping company is busy breaking through a thick ice barrier in order to rescue the ice-nipped ships. The barrier consists of hummocky ice the thickness of which is up to two metres.

On Wednesday the Admiral Makarov freed the large fishing trawler Mys Yelizavety (Cape Elizabeth) and the lower-powered icebreaker Magadan, which was stopped by powerful ice pressure, from the ice-nip, the press service of the Russian Ministry of Transport announced.

The Magadan has been now left at the edge of the icefield to perform, if necessary, the function of an auxiliary icebreaker.

Russian icebreaker clears path to release trapped ships in Okhotsk seahttp://en.rian.ru/russia/20110106/162056496.html

A Russian icebreaker on Thursday forced its way through ice to reach icebound ships in the Sea of Okhotsk, off Russia's far eastern coast.

Admiral Makarov is 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) away from the ships, its captain said.

Three ships have been trapped since Friday in ice two meters thick. Two more ships became stuck on Monday but were freed two days later.

On Monday, Magadan icebreaker got stuck while trying to rescue the icebound vessels.

A third icebreaker is on its way to reach some 400 people on the three ships stuck since last week, who have sufficient fuel, food and water.

MOSCOW, January 6 (RIA Novosti)

01/06 10:51   Chechen woman arrested on suspicion of plotting bombing in Moscow

http://www.interfax.com/

January 6, 2011 00:48A Chechen woman suspected of a possible terror attack in Moscow detained in Volgograd

http://www.interfax.ru/news.asp?id=172221

Moscow. January 6. Interfax - A native of Chechnya was arrested in Volgograd who may be involved in the preparation of an explosion in Moscow, a law enforcement source told Interfax."On Wednesday in Volgograd, a 24-year-old native of the Chechen Republic was detained, suspected of involvement in trafficking in explosives" - a spokesman said.He explained that the detainee will be on Thursday moved to Moscow, and she may be involved in preparing for an explosion in the capital.Interfax currently has no official confirmation of this information.As previously reported, on December 31, approximately at 21:30 an explosion completely destroyed one of the houses in the small club "Object" on Golovachev street, in south-east Moscow.The explosion completely destroyed a house of 80 square meters, the area of the detonation was 4 square meters. According to a source in law enforcement, the explosion on street Golovachev occurred with a spontaneously triggered improvised explosive device, whose power is set. "Luckily, no one except the woman herself, was injured" - a spokesman said.In the area of the explosion fragments of a body were found. The identity of the deceased is established - a woman whose husband was a participant in illegal armed formations in the North Caucasus."A gunman was arrested and he is in Pyatigorsk, and his wife arrived in Moscow. It is possible with an aim to make an explosion - a spokesman said.According to him, the woman detained in Volgograd has rented a “room at the guest house in the small club "Object". According to some reports, the ill minded specially rented accommodation in the private club to avoid undue attention from law enforcement agencies in preparation for the explosion.

Moscow mayor lambastes utilities services for poor snow removalhttp://en.rian.ru/russia/20110106/162054826.html

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin on Wednesday inspected the Russian capital's streets and criticized utilities services for poor work to clear snow and ice.

Moscow's streets and trees were covered in ice after an ice storm in late December, when rain drops froze on power lines and electrical wires, breaking them and disrupting

electricity supplies in entire districts. The unusual weather is still taking its toll with a second wave of blackouts and ice-covered roads and sidewalks.

But Sobyanin said the weather does not justify poor work to clean the streets.

"We were insufficiently prepared for work in extreme conditions; moreover, we were not ready to work properly during holidays. The situation is improving now, cleaning is actively underway throughout the city," he said.

The mayor called for massive fines for organizations who fail to cope with the ice and snow removal well. He said many heads of administrative districts had been fired and promised new dismissals should the situation remain unchanged.

MOSCOW, January 6 (RIA Novosti)

Karelian leader outlines radical energy shifthttp://www.barentsobserver.com/karelian-leader-outlines-radical-energy-shift.4868558-16178.html

2011-01-05 In his New Year’s address to the region, Head of the Republic of Karelia Andrei Nelidov outlined a radical turn in the region’s energy policy.

In three years, alternative energy sources like peat, waste wood and forest residue are to form the backbone of the region’s energy consumption, Nelidov told the population of about 700,000 in an address posted on the regional administration’s website.

Self-sufficiency of the alternative energy sources will replace the region’s current major imports of coal and fuel oil, on which the region spends “huge money”, the regional leader stressed. It will also give a major environmental bonus, he added.

It will take three years time to prepare the peat fields and get the necessary technology in place, Nedlidov maintained. Finnish technology will be applied in the process.

In general, neighboring Finland is a key to the modernization of Karelia. Finland itself possesses major peat resources and has developed several peat-fuelled power stations, among them the Toppila station in Oulo. No wonder, therefore, that Nelidov in his speech underlined that “this is the European approach, already well tested by our neighbors [which] … will guarantee European comfort and reliability”.

The republican leader also confirmed that as much as 15 billion RUB will be invested in the reconstruction of 63 small-scale hydro power stations in the region.

Nelidov, who was appointed regional leader in July 2010, is under major pressure to transform the regional economy. The regional budget is heavily dependent on tax revenues from a few big industrial companies, and first of all the Kostomuksha ore processing plant. Alternative industry needs to be developed, among them small businesses, tourism, fisheries and mining, he said.

Afterall, the governor himself admits, “we don’t earn even half of what we spend”.

.RF (.РФ) Domains Have Strings Attached: Develop or Else http://idnblog.com/2011/01/06/rf-%D1%80%D1%84-domains-strings-attached/

If you don’t develop your preregistered Russian .РФ domains, you can lose them according to Russian Minister of Communications and Mass Communications Minister Igor Shchegolev. This past week, Shchegolev warned: “if someone got . . . too much, and after a year at nothing appeared, the [url] address will be revoked.” (link)

Shchegolev later clarified that when he said .РФ domains must be used, he was only referring to preregistered names.

Many preregistered premiums were claimed by a small group of individuals this past November, who will now surely begin putting minisites on their .РФ domains.

As a recap, there has already been a fair share of drama in the .РФ zone. During the preregistration process, some were outraged that names secured by nic.ru (aka RU-Center) were auctioned off to the highest bidder, and a lawsuit was filed against nic.ru alleging anti-monopolistic practices in reference to the methods used by nic.ru to secure the lion’s share of premium .РФ domains for its registrants.

The develop or die mantra urged by Shchegolev may not be enforced as Andrei Vorobyov, a representative for nic.ru stated that no such rule has been included in the guidelines presented by the .РФ registry. Moreover, it would be quite difficult to determine how to define “adequate domain use”.

Many have been scared away by the mere talk of domain seizure in the .РФ zone. The restriction of a registrant’s right to do what one pleases with one’s purchased property — including not developing a domain for a year or two — could foreshadow further restrictions in the .РФ space. In fact, a large number of winners of .РФ preregistraton auctions backed out of payment, leading to a second round of preregistration auctions next week.

While the lack of protection from seizure may stunt the value of .РФ domains, adoption is still going strong as over 696,000 .РФ domains have been registered to date.

Medvedev lauds Russian ice hockey successhttp://en.rian.ru/russia/20110106/162056926.html

Wow, Russia. Woe, Canada. The Russian ice hockey team comes in for praise from President Dmitry Medvedev after thrashing Canada in the 2011 IIHF World Junior Championship Finals.

Writing on his Twitter account on Thursday, Medvedev said: "Congratulations to our national hockey team on winning the 2011 IIHF World Junior Championship. Well done!"

Russia scored five unanswered goals in the third period to overcome a 3-0 deficit and shock Canada, 5-3, at a packed HSBC Arena in Buffalo, N.Y. on Wednesday night.

The improbable comeback victory secured Russia's 13th title and first since 2003.

MOSCOW, January 6 (RIA Novosti)

Teams lose and officials winhttp://themoscownews.com/sports/20110106/188318652.html

by Evgeniya Chaykovskaya at 06/01/2011 00:512010 was not a good year for Russian sports teams, but a great one for sports officials. The Moscow News looks at some memorable events in sport.

 

Olympics

One of the highlights of the year in 2010 was, of course, the Winter Olympics in Vancouver. Russia took 11th place – worst result since tsarist times. The failure caused an investigation into spending and demands for officials to resign. Even the hockey team, which had been seen as one of the favourites, failed to bring back a medal after a humiliating defeat to Canada.

 

World Cup

The football World Cup was a sports festival for everyone to enjoy, even if Russia could not make it after a surprise loss to Slovenia in the qualifiers. The Spanish national team showed beautiful football and the world was mesmerised by Paul the octopus and his spot on predictions for Germany’s games and the final. However, Russia’s biggest World Cup triumph came when the country won the right to host 2018 World Cup which guarantees 

at least group stage participation for the national team - as well as a huge showcase for the country.

 

National football team

Russia’s misfortunes in Maribor proved to be the end of Guus Hiddink’s tenure in charge and fellow Dutchman Dick Advocaat, former Zenit gaffer, was brought in. With a lack of international action Russia were short of practice and ended the year with a humiliating 0-2 defeat in Voronezh to Belgium, the team Advocaat left in favour of Russia.

However, Russia ended the year top of the qualifying group for Euro 2012 with wins over Andorra, Ireland and Macedonia and a solitary defeat at home to Slovakia.

 

Mixed year for hockey

It was a mixed year for Russian hockey. The national team was knocked out of the Olympics by the hosts and was left without medals. It also had to make do with silver at the World Championship after back-to-back golds in 2008 and 2009. Things seemed to get towards the end of the year as Russia won all three games at Moscow’s stage of Eurotour in December.

In club hockey Ak Bars remained the team to beat in the KHL, but the league's hope of adding more foreign franchises were thwarted when planned entrants from Ukraine, Lithuania, Sweden and the Czech Republic all failed to complete the formalities in time for the 2010-11 campaign.

 

Club football

The biggest changes to club football came when Russian Football Union finally switched to the European playing calendar.

Zenit were crowned champions after an impressive campaign in the Russian Premier league, while Moscow’s CSKA managed to get to the quarter finals of Champions league before losing to eventual winners Internazionale. Rubin, who kept the mighty Barcelona at bay for three games in two seasons, finally gave in in November.

 

Teams going bust

Several clubs in Russia, both in hockey and football, fell victim to the financial crisis and went bankrupt in 2010. Moscow’s Moskva went bust and Saturn may leave Russian Premier league due to high levels of debt, while Amkar is collecting donations to keep the team afloat.

In hockey Moscow’s legendary Dinamo was ruined by lack of money, but was merged with HK MVD in order to preserve the famous brand name.

Time to get tough on the Kremlin crooks and bullieshttp://www.europeanvoice.com/article/imported/time-to-get-tough-on-the-kremlin-crooks-and-bullies/69849.aspx

06.01.2011 / 05:11 CET The jailing of Boris Nemtsov is a dark departure from Russia's already bleak status quo.

When you next meet Boris Nemtsov, will you be able to look him in the eye and say that you did everything you could while he was in jail? Did you urge your ambassadors to visit him in prison? Did your local Russian ambassador find himself bombarded with public and private protests? Did your politicians write letters to the newspapers, give speeches or go to demonstrations? Did your legislators hold hearings about freedom of assembly in Russia? Did you raise Russia's continued membership of the Council of Europe? 

Unlike the war in Georgia, or the jailing of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, this one is unambiguous. Nemtsov is an honourable man (and – full disclosure – a friend of mine). He could have taken the thirty silver roubles that have tempted so many erstwhile reformers of the Yeltsin era. He could have a nice lucrative job mis-running some big state-owned industry or maladministering a government agency (often pretty much the same thing in Russia). Many people from his corner of politics have ended up in the adhesive embrace of the Kremlin, perhaps because of blackmail, perhaps because of bribes. Nobody asks too closely.

Instead, Nemtsov ploughs a lonely furrow, as the leader of the threadbare ranks of the pro-Western, pro-justice, pro-freedom camp. I'd add ‘pro-Russian' to that list. With his admirable colleague, Vladimir Milov, Nemtsov has exposed in a series of searing pamphlets the looting and thuggery that are characteristic of the ruling regime. Libel laws make it hard to repeat the allegations in detail. But I urge readers of this column to google the pamphlets and read them.

But even if Nemtsov were a crank or a scumbag, his trial and sentencing would still be a disgrace. The conduct of the trial was a farce, the allegations ludicrous and the sentence of 15 days in prison grossly disproportionate.

This is not yet a Soviet-style crackdown (sentences then were measured in years, not days). But it still marks a dark departure from an already bleak status quo. Nemtsov and others have been detained briefly before, but this arrest came at a legally sanctioned demonstration, and the sentence is unprecedented. As the case of Sergei Magnitsky shows (he was a lawyer tortured to death in prison for his temerity in exposing a big state-backed fraud), Russian prisons are dangerous places.

The incident shatters hopes of a new era of liberalisation and modernisation under President Dmitry Medvedev, who only days earlier was praising Nemtsov as an example of a serious politician that the regime should talk to. If he wants an example of the “legal nihilism” he decries, here is one right under his window. The only way he can regain credibility now is to resign.

But it also highlights the feebleness of the outside world: the ‘wet West' one might call it.

Europe's response looks blush-makingly bad. A few limp words. No action. Even America, supposedly bewitched by the ‘re-set' in its relations with Russia, has been more forthright.

The ‘wet West's' message to the Russian leadership is clear: we don't really mind what you do, and even if we did mind, we wouldn't and couldn't do anything. That clears the way for more of the same: what will Europe do when the next demonstration (for freedom of assembly, on 31 January) is met with more truncheons, more arrests and longer sentences? Or if the flickers of remaining media freedom are snuffed out? Or if Russia starts bullying neighbouring countries?

So what will you, dear influential European Voice reader, say when you next meet Nemtsov?The writer is central and eastern Europe

correspondent of The Economist.

January 5, 2011

Dissent Turns Into a Solo Acthttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/06/world/europe/06moscow.html?_r=1

By ANDREW E. KRAMER

MOSCOW — Over the past three days, after the detention of Boris Y. Nemtsov, a prominent opposition figure, at a New Year’s Eve rally, a cat-and-mouse game has been unfolding on Moscow’s streets, still festooned with holiday decorations.

Pro-Kremlin youth groups are trying to thwart a vow by opposition members to picket daily outside Moscow City Hall and the jail where Mr. Nemtsov, who was a first deputy prime minister in the government of former President Boris N. Yeltsin, and a few other opposition leaders are being held.

Under a quirk of Russian law on rallies and protests, so-called individual pickets are legal without permits, which the opposition rarely obtains. Single protesters, standing 30 feet or so apart, may hold signs in public. As the Russian police were interpreting the rules,

two protesters standing together were grounds for arrest — even if they came from opposite sides of the political spectrum.

Which explains why Alla A. Kuznetsova, a high school chemistry teacher, stood alone on snowy Simferopol Boulevard on Wednesday, looking nervously up and down the sidewalk and hardly concerned with the few dozen police officers milling about.

With a final glance to make sure no one was around, she screwed up her courage and marched straight up to the police.

“I want to express my own, personal opinion,” she announced, adding, “I don’t want people to come close to me.”

As the sun reflected brilliantly off a million tiny ice crystal mirrors on this deep winter day, she unfolded a paper sign that read, “Freedom for Political Detainees.”

No sooner had she done so, however, than a young man flew along the sidewalk seemingly out of nowhere, skidding to a stop on the ice a few feet from Ms. Kuznetsova. With a grin, he held up his own placard, reading, “Hard Labor for Nemtsov!”

It is a scene that has been repeated frequently this week. So far, several dozen opposition protesters have been arrested after pro-Kremlin youth activists sidled up to them on the street. Technically, the pro-government activists should be arrested, too, but opposition groups say they do not always end up being formally detained.

On Tuesday, for example, 24 opposition activists and 10 pro-Kremlin youths were arrested. On Wednesday, the police detained just three opposition activists and a half-dozen or so from the pro-government camp, in part because of the opposition protesters’ efforts to avoid the youth activists.

Russian rights advocates and foreign governments alike have been looking at this odd state of affairs in the early days of 2011 with some dismay.

The White House issued a statement condemning Mr. Nemtsov’s arrest, and Amnesty International said Tuesday that it considered him and other opposition leaders prisoners of conscience.

“Yet again, the Russian authorities have failed in their obligations to protect the rights to freedom of assembly, a right guaranteed by the Russian Constitution,” Andrea Huber, Amnesty’s director for Europe and Central Asia, said in a statement.

The ban on assemblies represents a step back for Russia, after what seemed to be a thaw in the fall, when the authorities suddenly granted permits for rallies that had been banned for months. But after an eruption of nationalist violence in December, Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin signaled that street politics would once again be severely curtailed.

Undaunted, at least for now, members of the opposition group Solidarity say they will picket every day until their leaders are released. But the youth groups are making it difficult.

Soon after Wednesday’s action began, young men and women with pro-government youth groups could be seen clinging to the opposition activists, sometimes one-on-one, sometimes working zones on the sidewalk, so they were nearly never alone.

After the young man moved into the vicinity of Ms. Kuznetsova, a police commander barked, “That’s it, detain them!” But Ms. Kuznetsova slapped her sign shut, folding it in half, just in time. She was not arrested.

After that, though, a young woman took to trailing Ms. Kuznetsova throughout the hourlong event. “Get away from me, daughter,” the teacher said again and again.

The woman said, “No, I will stand next to you,” adding that it was her right to stand where she liked on the sidewalk.

January 5, 2011Political Pragmatism http://www.russiaprofile.org/page.php?pageid=International&articleid=a1294255560

By Inessa PetrovaSpecial to Russia Profile

Russia Is Reaping the Economic Benefits of a Change in Approach to Elections in the Near Abroad

Last year a great deal of attention was paid to elections held in CIS member states. Beyond domestic politics, each election was also significant to Russia and the West, giving Russia the chance to demonstrate that it is now playing a more subtle game. 

Major elections were held in four CIS states in 2010. At the beginning of the year, the international community waited with baited breath to see the outcome in Ukraine. Kyrgyz parliamentarian elections then took place in September 2010, followed by Moldovan parliamentary elections in November and finally, Belorussian presidential elections, as 2010 drew to a close. Russia, with its aspirations to be a regional leader could not remain impassive to these elections, which took place in countries that Russia has been traditionally been sensitive about.

The result in Ukraine marked a good start to the year for Russia in the eyes of many Russian and international experts – when Victor Yanukovich won the Ukrainian presidential elections, many in the Russian media couldn’t hide a smile. But Russia’s role in the elections was minimal and the result owed a lot to the failure of the Orange Revolution.

In this case, Russia did not resort to its old habit of picking a henchman and promoting him as a pro-Russian candidate. This strategy had already resulted in a complete fiasco in Ukraine. The key factor for the Ukrainian electorate was to see a candidate that catered neither to Russia, nor the West but to their homeland. This lesson was also learned by experience.

Russia engaged in a new strategy: showing equal support to both candidates. The tandem shared their responsibilities, President Dmitry Medvedev would team up with Yanukovich, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin would engage in talks with then-Prime Minister Yuliya Timoshenko. The Kremlin made it clear that it would negotiate with whoever was elected. This unemotional, hands-off approach benefited Yanukovich the most, as it allowed him to get rid of the pro-Russian tinge to his campaign. Yanukovich therefore brought Russia some small diplomatic victories. The elections were followed by a landmark treaty that will keep Russia’s naval base on the Black Sea for another thirty years. The gas dispute also seemed to be resolved, giving both Russia-Ukranian and Russia-EU relations a fresh start.

The situation in Kyrgyzstan also reveals Russia’s move toward pragmatism. When Roza Otunbayeva, interim president of Kyrgyzstan, asked Medvedev to send troops, he refused, saying that Russia can’t intervene in the internal affairs of Kyrgyzstan. While this decision fueled debate within Russia as to whether it was humane, it was well-grounded. Predicting the political and economic consequences of the operation was impossible, and action was opposed by the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). Furthermore Russia’s refusal to send troops to Kyrgyzstan did not result in a change of tone towards Russia, which is a key partner, particularly in the economic sphere.

Throughout Russia acted carefully. There was no risk in being the first country to recognize the interim government, though it took the rest of the world some time to believe that the power reshuffle had actually taken place. Even if the interim government failed, a coup against Bakiyev was likely to be perceived as a positive change. After all, Roza Otunbaeva and her colleagues had already proved themselves a skillful opposition: in 2005 she ousted former Kyrgyz president Askar Akayev.And parliamentary elections held in November this year went more smoothly than expected. Unlike in Ukraine, political parties in Kyrgyzstan are not divided into West and East and there is hardly any anti-Russian rhetoric. Memories of the color revolutions are still fresh, and Russia did not show direct support for any of the Kyrgyz candidates. Instead it subtly backed a few candidates. While Felix Kulov, leader of the “Ar-Namys party” spoke with Medvedev, Atambayev, head of the Social-Democrat Party was engaged in talks with Putin.

“After the April revolutionary events, the country started to depend more on Russia than before – in terms of dependence it sank to the level of Tajikistan”, said Sanobar Shermatova, expert on Central Asia at RIAN.

This increased dependence, combined with Russia’s support for the revolution, may yet lead to a windfall for Russia – when some beneficial deals with Russian companies are signed. 

Despite Russia’s back seat role in Kyrgyzstan, it remains partly responsible for peace and stability in the country. This coming year will therefore test Russia’s stabilizing role in the region. In the worst case scenario, political unrest could increase, forcing the CSTO to intervene.  In Moldova Russia seemed to adopt a completely laissez-faire policy. It was not until after the parliamentary elections on November 28, that the Head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Naryshkin arrived in Chisinau to engage the two parties in forming a coalition. 

This is in contrast to the EU, which scheduled numerous trips to the Republic. As a result, the EU and particularly Romanian efforts did not pay off in the recent elections – the country didn’t manage to end its long-lasting crisis, as no party won enough seats. This failure in leadership leaves Moldova politically handicapped for another few months as choosing a president remains impossible.

The Moldovan election campaign was wrongly perceived as a battle between pro-Russian and pro-European parties. There is no pro-Russian party in Moldova, and despite an anti-Russian campaign launched by former President Mihai Ghimpu, the Moldovan economy remains dependent on remittances from Russia.

“In 2010, the political debate was more mature, as it dwelled on fighting poverty rather than the geopolitical orientation of Moldova, as in previous cases,” said Moldova expert Florent Parmentier. 

The media also portrayed the so-called “conflict between pro-Russian and pro-EU forces in Moldova” as one that could endanger Russia-EU relations. “This is a serious exaggeration,” said Alexandr Tevdoy-Burmuli, professor of European affairs at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO). “Russia-EU relations is a much higher priority that elections in Moldova.”

Russia’s cautious behavior in Moldova may reflect a desire to renew relations with the EU, but it may also reflect the same pragmatic message that the results are Moldova’s own business and Russia will be able to communicate with any leader. “Russia has always defended its interests here, like other powers, but now it’s acting in a more flexible way than before,” said Parmentier.

Some point out that Russia has become more of an observer than a political force in Moldova and it lacks credible partners, which may cause problems in the near future. Russia is keen to resolve the Transdnestr conflict and will need to push both sides to sign a treaty. To achieve a satisfactory result, Russia would like to see a politician who could make concessions. Russia’s role in Belarusian elections is hard to underestimate, as it used a range of methods to discredit its formerly closest ally for his double dealings. Despite a very emotional campaign against Lukashenko that looked like a feud, Russia didn’t go too far in its punitive measures. Russia showed its pragmatic side: it recognized Lukashenko as a legitimate president. It’s also possible that Russia could have paid a higher price for a revolution in Belarus than leaving Lukashenko in power.

Elections in Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Belorussia and Moldova served as a test to Russia’s strategic role in the region. Russia passed the test and scored rather well. There was no serious damage to Russia’s image. Its politics seemed to result in a win-win situation for all stakeholders: Russia, its neighbors and the West, which is now more focused on its relationship with Russia.

Historian George Jewsbury thinks 2010 was “an unqualified victory for Moscow, at no great costs”: “Russia has consolidated its leading position within the CIS, extended its power through economic means in the near abroad, and has taken advantage of the America Re-Set to make up for any losses in the past 20 years,” he said. However it’s hard to discern whether this is mostly due to Russia’s pragmatism or new political circumstances. The latter can’t be ignored as the United States and the EU didn’t aim to intervene in the region, leaving more room for Russia.

“The United States, in its reset mode, will not be supporting any more 'color' revolutions.  Now that ideology is gone, the United States and Russia have bigger interests – modernization and technology for Russia and support in the war on terror in Afghanistan for the US,” added Jewsbury.

Russia: Central Asian Labor Migrants Facing Uncertain Year http://www.eurasianet.org/node/62664

Submitted by k_kumkova on January 5, 2011 - 10:39am January 5, 2011 - 10:35am

Fardin Saidulayev manages a newspaper kiosk in the Russian city of Novosibirsk, where he is one of the few Tajik laborers to hold a coveted work permit. Yet he faces an uncertain new year. As of January 1, new Russian legislation bans foreigners from working in trade. Saidulayev says he now lives in constant fear he will be fired, or even deported.

“I am not sure what I will do,” Saidulayev, 26, told EurasiaNet.org recently. Originally from the town of Ishkashim in the Pamir Mountains, Saidulayev has been in Russia for three years. “I may try to keep working here or I may have to start working on a building site, but competition for jobs there is fierce and the pay is lower,” he added.

Though its economy is rebounding from the 2008 global financial crisis, Moscow, the scene of recent ethnic rioting [5], is tightening immigration procedures. Russian officials now say the country only needs skilled, Russian-speaking laborers. The changes could have a drastic effect in Tajikistan, where migrant-worker remittances [6] comprise up to half the country’s GDP.

Around 98 percent of Tajik migrants in Russia work as unskilled laborers, Viktor Sebelev, the head of the Russian Federal Migration Service’s office in Tajikistan, said recently in Dushanbe. Many fail to integrate into Russian society. The Moscow-based Center of Migration Studies says that only 50 percent of labor migrants are literate enough in Russian to complete official documents; 20 percent have no command of the language at all.

In November, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed the decree banning foreign laborers from working as traders in outdoor kiosks and markets and from selling alcohol or pharmaceuticals. Foreigners still have the right to work in markets as loaders, cleaners, wholesalers or managers.

Since Putin signed the legislation, official rhetoric justifying the measure has intensified.

In early December, newly appointed Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced new restrictions on migration to Moscow. The mayor called for “firm control” over immigration and declared the quota of foreign workers in the city would be decreased to 200,000, an almost 50 percent drop in 2011 from the previous year’s total. "I have nothing against migrants, the city needs them. I just want to understand what kind of specialists are needed and in what areas," he said in comments carried by the state news agency, RIA Novosti.

Similarly, the government has cut its migrant work permit quota [7] again this year to 1.5 million, a significantly smaller number than in 2007 when 6 million migrants obtained work permits, RIA Novosti reported.

The Federal Migration Service also announced in early December that it would compile a list of all migrants from the CIS in Russia, a process expected to take two years. Proponents claim that legalizing a migrant’s status guarantees more rights, including access to healthcare. But the number of unregistered migrants far exceeds the number of permits. Some estimates place the number of migrant workers in Russia at 12 million.

A reduction in unskilled labor migration could have serious repercussions for Tajikistan’s feeble economy. In 2009, according to the International Organization of Migration (IOM), 18 percent of the working-age population migrated abroad; their remittances

accounted for 49.6 percent of GDP. Tajik government officials estimate that 900,000 Tajiks work in Russia, 30 percent in trade like Saidulayev.

There is skepticism, however, whether Putin’s new decree is enforceable. In Dushanbe, the IOM’s Malika Yarbabaeva expects it "won’t result in the mass return of migrants from Russia." A similar law from 2007 was never effectively implemented, she argues, noting that only 17 percent of all migrants live legally in Russia, highlighting the Moscow’s weak control over the state bureaucracy.

Nevertheless, the new law will simply augments the black market for foreign labor, pushing more migrants into unsafe conditions, said an official from Tajikistan’s migration service. “I do not think we will see many Tajiks return. The migrants will find loopholes in the law and continue to work in Russia. For instance, they will register their stalls in the names of Russian citizens,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity out of concern for vexing his Russian counterparts. The Tajik official argued that many Tajiks will continue to work illegally in the trade sector.

That is bad news for Saidulayev, who feels that, because he is legally registered, he has a higher profile than many migrants and could be singled out and made an example of. “I am being punished for living here legally when many people from my country live here illegally. I think this new policy will compel many Tajiks to continue living outside the Russian laws,” he said by telephone from Novosibirsk.

“At the moment I am waiting,” Saidulayev said, calling the distinction between skilled and unskilled laborers arbitrary. “I expect the police will come to close me down soon. If this happens, I don’t know what I will do.”

Editor's note: Edward Lemon is a freelance journalist based in Dushanbe.

Lurching Toward Militarization: Russian Defense Spending in the Coming Decadehttp://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37318&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=b4e8a7fea0

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 8 Issue: 3January 5, 2011 04:13 PM Age: 10 hrsCategory: Eurasia Daily Monitor, Home Page, Military/Security, Domestic/Social, Russia By: Stephen Blank

New trends in Russian defense spending signal a return towards militarization. In the past decade, defense spending increased from 141 billion rubles to 2,025 trillion rubles

without leading to a growth in deliveries, as these figures were consumed by rising costs for modernizing old models and for new models as well as losses due to corruption (Vedomosti, August 19, 2010). Meanwhile, the Russian defense ministry has already submitted to the government a ten year plan for arms procurement and re-equipment for the next decade. This is an exceptionally ambitious military building program. Rather than modernize the armed forces by 10 percent annually to 2020 as previously planned, President Dmitry Medvedev now demands that 30 percent of the armed forces weaponry should be modernized by 2015 (RIA Novosti, May 24, 2010).

The original State Armament Program from 2011-2020 allocated only 13 trillion rubles ($425 billion) to rearm the armed forces. Protests from the defense ministry prevailed upon the government during the summer of 2010 to raise the figure to 20 trillion rubles ($620 billion). Under these revised figures spending on research and development (R&D) and procurement will exceed $50 billion annually. Perhaps more importantly, total Russian defense spending may reach 4-5 percent of GDP, more than any other major power and a sign of creeping militarization. Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, recently conceded that budgetary outlays on national defense would rise in 2010 by 13.3 percent, while spending on national security and law enforcement would increase by 8.8 percent. The overall rise in those sectors through 2013 will be 22.1 percent. Since spending on healthcare, culture, cinematography, and education are also going up by large amounts general state expenditures will supposedly fall by 4.5 percent allegedly through attrition of the number of bureaucrats by 20 percent through 2013, reducing the rise of administrative costs, and privatizations (Interfax, July 28, 2010).

Thus, by 2013 Russian defense spending will be 2 trillion rubles ($65 billion) more than it is today and rise by 60 percent relative to 2010 figures. Moreover, these sums will go largely to nuclear, naval and air forces. Indeed the budget through 2013 raises procurement by 50 percent above the earlier figures (RIA Novosti, July 30, 2010).  Obviously, lucrative and productive investment will be squeezed in the coming budgets, as is already the case, this drastic increase in state spending occurs when the budget faced a deficit of 5 percent of GDP in 2010 and 4 percent in 2011. Yet, the government is now pushing a forecast calling for real annual growth of 3-6 percent annually until 2015. Like many other governments, it is painting a rosy scenario that is likely to prove too optimistic. Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, claims that by 2020 the armed forces will receive over 1,500 new aircraft and helicopters and around 200 new air defense systems (ITAR-TASS, July 19, 2010).

Yet, these promises are being made in an environment where there has been no reform since 2007 or such reforms as have been attempted failed and the government admits that the procurement plan for 2009 was only 50 percent completed, according to the Accounting Chamber (Pravda, July 21, 2010). The new plan calls for 1,300 new pieces of hardware, 213 of which require new producing facilities or modernization of existing ones. Equally, 1,000 new technologies should be worked out under the program  (ITAR-TASS, August 22, 2010). Thus, to meet the demands for procurement until 2013 that have now been accepted, the government must find 270 billion rubles ($8.8 billion): more than originally intended (60 billion rubles, $1.9 billion) for procurement until 2013.

Furthermore, Medvedev’s reform efforts have, by his own admission, fallen flat. So, these forecasts and promises should represent to unbiased observers a Russian version of what former US President, George H.W. Bush, called “voodoo economics.”

More recently, the extent of this militarization has become clearer. Medvedev still insists that defense spending will stay at 2.8 percent of GDP to 2020 even though this meant cutting other programs (RIA Novosti, November 25, 2010). The State Armament Program submitted to Medvedev and the Duma for 2011-20 now totals 20.7 trillion rubles ($646 billion) of which 19.4 trillion rubles ($634 billion) is earmarked for the defense ministry. Of this figure, 79 percent will be spent on the acquisition and purchase of high-tech armaments (including nuclear weapons which remain a priority). This represents a tripling of the current 2006-15 program that supposedly provides for the delivery of 1,300 models of equipment and armament, among which 220 require modernization or the creation of new capacities (Interfax, December 13, 2010;  RIA Novosti, December 8, 2010; ITAR-TASS, December 13, 2010; RBK Online, December 14, 2010).

Within this new program that also entails the comprehensive modernization of the entire machine tool sector along with the high-tech sector, the state order (Goszakaz) for 2011 will rise by one third to 1.5 trillion rubles ($49 billion) and then another third by 2013 to 2 trillion rubles ($65 billion) (RIA Novosti Online, December 8, 2010). By 2013, national defense expenditure will have risen 64.4 percent, while the annual budget deficit moves from 4.3 percent of GDP to 5.3 percent of GDP (if current estimates hold). In other words, this defense spending will generate inflationary pressure while also coming at the expense of healthcare, education, and environmental protection, financial assistance to the regions, housing, and presumably also infrastructure (Izvestiya, November 12, 2010). Indeed, it appears that not only did Kudrin complain that the financial sources had not yet been assessed sufficiently and that such spending may lead to a burden on the economy, it transpired that this overall spending plan (which includes large-scale hikes on social welfare programs) was prepared in secret from Kudrin, a typical Tsarist or even Stalinist ploy. Indeed, inflation is already projected at 8.5 percent and will likely grow in 2011 vitiating all these plans (Moskovsky Komsomolets, December 3, 2010). Worse still, the iniquitous mobilization reserves of the Soviet period apparently still exist though nobody is saying how large they are.

Therefore, at a time when Russia desperately needs productive infrastructural, scientific and environmental investment, it is turning in exactly the same direction as its Soviet predecessor. Moreover, it is doing so in the absence of any reform in the hidebound defense industrial sector that is an admitted swamp of corruption. The navy alone is supposed to receive one third of this 19.4 trillion rubles. And, the whole rickety program is based on the rosiest of scenarios. When the next armaments program is drawn up it will be worthwhile looking at this new one and its predecessors, all of which failed, and speculating on what Russia could have otherwise achieved for the same money.

A Russian woman stands, alone, for her rightshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/05/AR2011010503947.html

By Kathy LallyWashington Post Foreign ServiceWednesday, January 5, 2011; 4:35 PM

MOSCOW - A 45-year-old high school teacher stood small and shivering on the street across from Moscow's City Hall on Wednesday, determined to do what she could to prevent her country from turning into a totalitarian state.

The state was watching Marina Rozumovskaya - the stares of a dozen or so large policemen were colder than the 10 degrees on the thermometer. They were waiting for her to break the law. She was intent on honoring it. She would stand on the street, hold an 8-by-11-inch piece of paper bearing the words "Freedom to political prisoners" and dare the authorities to suppress her freedom of speech.

Rozumovskaya was there, she said, taking part in one of three protests across the city Wednesday, because in the past week the authorities had fired off two public warnings. Last Thursday, a Moscow court sentenced former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky to six more years in prison on top of the eight he has already served - the maximum 14-year sentence for unproven charges of stealing oil from his own company. The next day, an opposition leader who had been a deputy prime minister in the Yeltsin era was hustled into a police van as he was leaving an officially permitted demonstration in support of the right to assemble.

Boris Nemtsov, the opposition leader, had criticized the Khodorkovsky decision and castigated Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at the rally. He was sentenced Sunday to 15 days in prison, accused of disobeying police. Another leader was arrested as he left his home, before even reaching the rally.

"We live in a country of signals," Rozumovskaya said Wednesday. "It's becoming clear we are on the way back to the 1940s and a totalitarian state. How can one sit and watch quietly as it happens?"

As Rozumovskaya grew colder at her post, hundreds of Russians in the middle of a week-long national vacation were flocking to theaters and restaurants near the Kremlin, just down the street. "If you don't exercise your rights as a citizen," she said, "nothing will ever change."

The dozen protesters in Rozumovskaya's band were carefully observing the law that allows only one person to picket without obtaining a permit. They stood aside, careful not to block the sidewalk, taking turns holding up a sign. Within minutes, police made their first arrests.

Before Rozumovskaya's turn, a fellow protester had been joined by an unfriendly picket from the Kremlin-backed youth group Nashi, prompting police to take both of them away.

An angry Rozumovskaya lectured the police as if they were unruly students, demanding protection from interlopers. The lieutenant colonel in charge refused, telling her she would be arrested if anyone joined her. She demanded he cite the law.

"I said so," he told her.

Rozumovskaya moved near the statue and held up her sign. A Nashi supporter darted toward her. She rolled up her sign and left the spot. A few minutes later, the intruder gone, she returned, standing straight and still except for her shivers.

By late afternoon, 19 people had been detained from the three different protests, in front of the detention center where Nemtsov is serving his sentence, at the presidential administration building and at City Hall.

Rozumovskaya went home a free woman, her signal sent.

"I am not a politician, just a teacher," she said, "I want my pupils to live in a civilized country. I don't want them turning into people without honor and conscience."

National Economic Trends

Fitch Says Russia Economy Could Put ‘Upward Pressure’ On Rating http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHLxhJ.cZ6gM

By Jason Webb

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- A reduction in Russia’s budget deficit that reduces the economy’s vulnerability to oil shocks and a drop in inflation could put “upward pressure” on its sovereign credit rating, Fitch Ratings said today.

The country also faces a “number of challenges and question marks over its recent economic performance,” Fitch said in a report.

Editors: Linda Shen, Alexander Nicholson

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Webb in London at jwebb25@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gavin Serkin at gserkin@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 5, 2011 08:26 EST

Russia freezes timber export duties at current level until WTO membership http://wood.lesprom.com/news/46700

   Moscow. Jan 05, 2011. /Lesprom Network/. Russia earlier announced that it is freezing its timber export duties on their current level; the change took affect at the turn of the year and the freeze will remain in place until Russia joins the WTO. It would have been necessary to implement lower duties much sooner, however, as the Finnish Forest Industries Federation said in a press release received by Lesprom Network.

“It would have been good if the lower duties, which were agreed to in negotiations between the EU and Russia last November, could have taken effect immediately at the beginning of 2011 instead of after about a year because this would have promoted the revival of our forest industry cooperation. Russia has considered forest industry investments important, but these cannot be implemented if export duties and other trade barriers that hamper activities are not removed as quickly as possible. Russia should also focus on the development of its infrastructure and boost confidence in the availability of wood raw material for decades to come,” says Timo Jaatinen, Director General of the Finnish Forest Industries Federation.

Timber export duties will not be removed in their entirety once Russia joins the WTO, but the expectation is that they will not target the timber grades, which are imported by Finland, as heavily as has been the case up to now. The duties levied on hardwood will reduce by about three-thirds and softwood duties will be cut by about half.

The forest industry of Finland has adjusted its operations to reduced Russian timber imports and largely relies on domestic raw materials. How much imports recover depends on the cost of Russian timber as well as on the industry's export developments and the availability and cost of domestic timber. Russian timber imports now only account for around 10% of total consumption

In 2009, Finland imported 6.1 million cubic metres of timber from Russia when measured using the barked volume. This is equivalent to 5.3 million cubic metres of de-barked timber. International trade volumes are measured using the de-barked amount, while Finnish statistics are compiled using the barked volume.

The forest industry of Finland consumed about 52 million cubic metres of wood in 2009. Imports from Russia totalled 5.3 million cubic metres in January-September 2010. Russian timber imports peaked at 17 million cubic metres in 2005 (14.8 million cubic metres using the de-barked volume).

Pulpwood accounted for the majority of Russian exports to Finland, as Russia does not commercially utilise birch pulpwood, for example, to any great extent.

Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

Interros not to buy back Norilsk Nickel's shares

http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20110106102420.shtml

      RBC, 06.01.2011, Moscow 10:24:20.Investment company Interros does not plan to participate in the buyback of Norilsk Nickel's shares, head of the mining and metallurgical company's PR department Andrey Kirpichnikov told RBC. "We have no intention to increase our stake in Norilsk Nickel," he stated.

NMZK plans investment to increase output and expand product rangeThursday, 06 Jan 2011

http://www.steelguru.com/russian_news/NMZK_plans_investment_to_increase_output_and_expand_product_range/184816.html

It is reported that Novosibirsk Metallurgical Works named after Kuzmin, currently under the control of Russia largest metal trader Metallservis Group plans to establish its own crude steel production, which will have an annual capacity of about 300,000 tonnes to 350,000 tonnes.

Accordingly, the establishment of its own crude steel production will allow NMZK to expand its output of rebar, channels, angles and round bars, and also to partially produce slabs during the seasonal drop in demand for construction rebar. Meanwhile, in order to solve its problem with the supply of steel for rerolling, NMZK plans to install a new wide coil slitting line. Following the installation of the new line, NMZK will be able to purchase both slabs and coils for rerolling.

MZK plans investment to increase output and expand product rangeThursday, 06 Jan 2011

In addition, by 2013, NMZK plans also to install a new electric welding mill ‘20-76' with a capacity of not less than 60,000 tonnes per year for the production of water and gas and shaped pipes. The implementation term of the project is one year.

Furthermore, NMZK aims also to expand the range of its line pipes for heat pipelines and indoor gas pipelines. Currently, the maximum diameter of the pipes produced by the plant is limited to 159 mm, and now NMZK selects equipment to master the production of pipes of 219 mm, 272 mm and 426 mm diameter.

Total investments in NMZK development program would amount to RUB 5.8 billion to RUB 6 billion.

Rosatom Sets Interest Margin on $400 Million Pre-Export Loan http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRbXIKdi8u7o

By Karen Eeuwens

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Rosatom Corp., Russia’s nuclear power company, set terms on a $400 million pre-export finance loan, according to a person with knowledge of the deal.

Rosatom agreed to pay interest of 225 basis points more than benchmark rates on the five-year term loan, which may be increased to as much as $500 million, said the person, who declined to be identified because terms are private.

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., Deutsche Bank AG, Societe Generale SA and Nordea Bank AB plan to start marketing the facility to other lenders this month, the person said.

Officials for Moscow-based Rosatom did not respond to two phone calls seeking comment.

Rosatom, the largest utility in Russia, provides 40 percent of the world’s uranium enrichment services and 17 percent of nuclear fuel, according to the company’s website.

To contact the reporter on this story: Karen Eeuwens in London keeuwens@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Faris Khan at fkhan33@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: January 5, 2011 06:19 EST

Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)

Russian ex-navy officers to work for Shtokmanhttp://www.barentsobserver.com/russian-ex-navy-officers-to-work-for-shtokman.4868487-116320.html

2011-01-05 Reserve officers from Russia’s Northern Fleet can be retrained to work in the Shtokman gas project and the Murmansk transport hub, says Northern Fleet Commander Admiral Nikolay Maksimov.

Northern Fleet officers have for several years had the opportunity to be retraining for work in the civilian sector after being transferred to the reserve. The education has so far been directed towards future work within public administration, but now ex-officers can get specialization to work within the two of the largest projects in North-West Russia – development of the huge Shtokman gas field in the Barents Sea and development of Murmansk as a major transport hub.

In the end of December the Russian bank Sberbank, the Northern Fleet and the North-West Academy of Public Administration signed an agreement on cooperation on retraining of reserve officers, Sberbank’s web site reads. The bank has acted as sponsor of the Northern Fleet for more than ten years.

After the signing Admiral Nikolay Maksimov said that the partners will discuss the possibilities for changing the curricula to include subjects that will prepare the officers for work on the Shtokman and Murmansk transport hub projects, Mbnews.ru reports:

- Maybe we’ll agree to involve private business, to educate for professions that are needed in the concrete region, for example Shtokman, Maksimov said and added that this will be a pilot project and will be followed carefully.

About 1000 officers are waiting to get their retraining for civilian professions, Maksimov said. 30 reserve officers are ready to begin their retraining at the Murmansk branch of the North-West Academy of Public Administration in the beginning of January 2011.

PKN ORLEN Inks Deal With Lukoil Polska For Fuel Sales - Quick Facts http://www.rttnews.com/Content/QuickFacts.aspx?Id=1519603&SM=1

1/5/2011 3:10 AM ET (RTTNews) - Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen S.A. (POKD.L: News ) said that on 4 January 2011 it signed one-year deal with Lukoil Polska Sp. z o.o., member of the Lukoil group. The agreement was signed for the sales by PKN ORLEN of gasoline and diesel oil to Lukoil Polska for the period between 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2011.

The company noted that the total estimated net value of the deal amounts to PLN 1 601 million.

The total value of agreements signed between PKN ORLEN and companies from the Lukoil group during the last onr year amounts to nearly PLN 2 797 million and agreements signed between PKN ORLEN subsidiaries and companies from the Lukoil group during the last 12 months amounts to approximately PLN 619 million.

Click here to receive FREE breaking news email alerts for Polski Koncern Naftowy and others in your portfolio

by RTT Staff Writer

Russia to aid Lebanon in natural gas?http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2011/01/05/Russia-to-aid-Lebanon-in-natural-gas/UPI-19921294233440/

Published: Jan. 5, 2011 at 8:17 AM

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Jan. 5 (UPI) -- Lebanon is keen to tap into its domestic gas reserves by reviewing Mediterranean pipeline plans possibly with Russia's help, the country's energy minister said.

Russian energy company Stroitransgaz is among the 19 foreign companies investigating a natural gas pipeline along the Mediterranean coast, Russia's news agency ITAR-Tass reports.

The $360 million, 108-mile natural gas pipeline would run from northern Lebanon to the port city of Tyre. Gebran Bassil, the country's energy minister, said his country could alleviate many of its energy woes with the pipeline. Lebanon, he said, has a $1.5 billion deficit from fuel purchases.

Lebanon is at odds with Israel over who controls the giant Leviathan gas field in the Mediterranean Sea. Observers say Beirut may have to go to the United Nations to get a demarcation to its gas claims within its maritime borders.

Beirut says Leviathan extends into its territory and holds about 16 trillion cubic of natural gas and 4.3 billion barrels of oil. Shiite resistance movement Hezbollah has warned Israel to keep its hands off of Lebanon's energy resources.

Israel has vowed to retaliate for any attacks on its gas fields and the energy infrastructure that's expected to be developed over the next couple of years.

OilEdge: A 'long game' in the Arctic...http://www.oilvoice.com/n/OilEdge_A_long_game_in_the_Arctic/9b966a3da.aspx

Thursday, January 06, 2011Written by OilEdgeThe United States Geological Survey (USGS) calls the offshore Arctic – Exhibit 1 - the biggest unexplored area for potential petroleum reserves left on Earth. The USGS has

claimed it could hold some 90bn barrels of untapped oil, equal to Russia's total known reserves, and suggested the area may have three times as much untapped natural gas as oil; their figures are said to be the first credible estimate of the petroleum available north of the Arctic Circle. According to the Survey, the Arctic holds about 13% of the world's undiscovered oil, 30% of the undiscovered natural gas, and 20% of the undiscovered natural gas liquids.Overall, Arctic oil & gas feels like a very ‘long game’ requiring very deep pockets and patience. And, naturally, the Gulf oil spill is heightening concerns about the risks posed by drilling – and eventually producing - in such remote regions.  

Exhibit 1

It is perhaps worth beginning by pointing out that petroleum exploration in the Arctic – inside the Arctic Circle – is a not a 21st Century phenomenon. The North Slope of Alaska was explored in the 1940’s and with success from the 1960’s onwards – see my article here for an introduction to those early years. Likewise, the northern reaches of West Siberia were explored in the Soviet era, with many large gas discoveries, and the Barents Sea – jointly owned nowadays by Russia and Norway – has a 30 year exploration history. What is newer is the notion that much more of the offshore Arctic is now accessible. As global warming trends have begun to open the waters of the Arctic Ocean on a year-round basis, neighboring governments have engaged in efforts to establish their claims to land in this virgin region.  Exploration companies believe the recent rapid ice melt in the Arctic may make it easier to get reserves out of the region.

That possibility has set off an Arctic land grab, with Russia famously sending a submarine to plant a flag on the Arctic seafloor in 2007. Denmark, Canada, the USA and Norway are also staking claims to huge swathes of seafloor north of the Arctic Circle and muttering about extending their military capabilities in the area. Canada, Denmark and Russia are among many countries that have ratified the UN's Convention on the Law of the Sea, which allows a state sole exploitation rights over all natural resources within a 200-nautical mile (370km) zone extending from its coastline. Beyond that, a state can claim the right to exploit a further 150 nautical miles of seabed if it can prove that its continental shelf extends that far. Under international law, no country currently owns the North Pole or the region of the Arctic Ocean that immediately surrounds it. The Arctic Circle, which is a line encircling the globe at 66°33’39”North, encompasses an 8.2 million square mile area, or about 6% of the Earth’s surface.  The five surrounding Arctic countries – Russia, the United States, Canada, Norway and Denmark (Greenland) are entitled to claim a portion of this area. Nations with coastlines are limited to an exclusive economic zone extending 200 nautical miles (230 miles) adjacent to their coast. Since the exclusivity area extends from the known coastal shelf or land under territorial waters out to 12 nautical miles, determining exactly where their respective shelves end will prove important in determining the 200-mile zones, and in turn, the amount of natural resources each country may ultimately claim.  The total coastal area within the Arctic region is estimated to encompass an estimated 2.7 million square miles under less than 500 meters (1,640 feet) of water. As mentioned before, the area is not unexplored. In the 3.1 million acres of onshore acreage within the Arctic Circle that have been explored, roughly 400 oil and gas fields have been discovered in Russia, the Barents Sea, Canada and Alaska. These fields account for approximately 240 billion barrels of oil and oil-equivalent natural gas, or about 10% of the world’s known conventional petroleum resources.

Russia

The estimated amount of undiscovered natural gas in the Arctic is roughly three times more than that of oil and is largely concentrated in Russia. Russia has the longest Arctic coastline of any of the Arctic states, representing about 30%-35% of the total in the region; it has to prove the validity of its territorial claims – Exhibit 2 - to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf by 2011. To enhance its claim, in April 2007 Russia sent a deep-sea submarine to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean to plant a titanium-flag beneath the North Pole (Exhibit 2).Exhibit 2

Actually, the Russian government has been engaged in a lot of geopolitical gesticulation about boundaries, military might, the scale of the opportunity and so on but has not really done anything to create a favourable environment for offshore Arctic exploration. Firstly, a recent new law allows the Russian government to declare any acreage “strategic” and therefore award it to Russian companies such as Gazprom and Rosneft. There is talk of significant incentives to tempt western Majors to join in exploration and development but………Secondly, the Russian tax regime is quite punitive and the government’s budget is dominated by this revenue: it’s difficult to see how things can be changed to make risky, potentially expensive ventures attractive. So there’s a conundrum. Russian companies do not have the necessary experience for the offshore Arctic yet will be ‘given’ the best blocks to operate. Western Majors have the “Know How” but may be mere partners in a none-too-attractive commercial venture.

Something has to change!

In summary, the exploration of the offshore Russian Arctic joins exploration activity onshore in Russia in being “on the back burner”.

The Barents Sea

Russia and Norway have recently agreed on the location of their median line in the Barents Sea and to work together, triggering speculation that there might be a new wave of exploration there.

The Barents already has one or two major discoveries, especially in the Russian sector, of

which the largest is the Shtokman field, which is also known as the Stockman field, is a Russian-controlled gas development in the centre of the Russian sector of the Barents Sea, about 370 miles (500km) north of the Kola Peninsula. Discovered in 1988, the gas field is estimated to be one of the world's largest natural gas deposits with reserves estimated at 3.8 trillion cubic metres of natural gas and about 37m tonnes of gas condensate: development costs are estimated at more than $50bn. – click here for more information.

No doubt the region will see increased activity. The interesting technical question about the Barents is whether there are, after 30 years exploration, any major oil fields still to be found or whether the province is simply dominated by gas fields.

Denmark/Greenland

"Dragons be here!" was how the unknown region of the North Pole was marked on ancient Danish maps. Greenland itself has been part of Denmark for 600 years: now the prospect of "black gold" in Greenland has led a growing number of Greenlanders to call for independence from Denmark. The US Geological Survey reported last year that Greenland could be sitting on reserves of up to 50 billion barrels, with the north of Greenland perhaps holding the richest untapped oil and gas reserves. To put that into perspective, the whole of the North Sea has produced a total of almost 40 billion barrels since large-scale production began in the 1960s.

Greenland is one of a handful of frontier exploration plays left in the world that is available to international oil companies and that could be game-changing if successful. Greenland has opened its doors. It is not the first time Greenland has caught the eye of the oil giants. In the 1970s a handful of companies drilled five offshore wells; all were dry and were abandoned. Statoil drilled another in 2000 with the same result. By comparison, more than 10,000 wells have been drilled in the North Sea.Back in November 2010, Greenland’s Government announced the allocation of licenses for a Baffin Bay round. Out of 17 block applications submitted, 7 have been allocated to the bidders which include ConocoPhillips, Shell, Statoil, GDF Suez and Cairn Energy.The contracts it is offering split future revenues roughly down the middle between companies and the state; that compares with other countries such as Libya, which has offered licences that give companies just 2% of the proceeds.

The island’s openness is understandable: it needs all the help it can get. Nuna Oil, the state oil company, employs only seven people and a spokesman admitted that the paucity of reliable data meant that “nobody knows if there is any commercial oil at all”; their excellent summary map of licenses and wells can be found here. With reserves dwindling elsewhere and an oil price that may make Arctic oil attractive for the first time, the world’s largest island is experiencing a gradual renaissance – gradual because exploration in Greenland will evolve slowly as few companies are yet active and there is a restricted drilling ‘season’.

What can one say so far from current understanding of the regional geological picture and

from the ‘two-and-a-half’ wells that Cairn Energy have just completed in Baffin Bay?Firstly, there is regional evidence of petroleum with natural oil seeps onshore in west Greenland, traces of thermogenic crude in sea-bed cores, slicks observed from satellites, and persistent oil and gas seeps, and oil slicks, identified off the Canadian coast over the past 40 years. One of Cairn’s wells – the incomplete one - encountered oil shows in a volcanic section, one well failed to encounter any significant hydrocarbons, the third encountered thin gas sands – the latter two wells will most likely be written off as non-commercial. The presence of a mature, preferably oil-prone, source rock must remain a key risk.Secondly, in structural style, to my mind Baffin Bay and South Greenland resemble the UK’s West of Shetland area and the Norwegian Sea where the petroleum system is well understood and the critical exploration issue has been predicting reservoir, despite a now long exploration history, relying to a significant extent on prediction from seismic amplitudes in general and AVO in particular. It is debatable how well this has worked in fact as up to the end of 2009 about 40 wells were positioned on an amplitude or AVO anomaly within the Palaeocene west of Shetland since 1993 and of these, nine encountered notable hydrocarbons. Following post-mortem studies, the majority of the wells that failed to find hydrocarbons could be shown to represent poorly-understood amplitude anomalies, AVO artifacts and spurious DHI’s, a failure of “Know How” really.This brings me to the most remarkable aspect of the current Greenland exploration campaigns, namely that no regional ‘exploration’ 3D has been acquired. Elsewhere in the North and South Atlantic – whether West of the Shetlands, the Faroes, the Norwegian Sea, Ghana, Nigeria, Angola, Brasil, indeed almost anywhere you can think of – such 3D has been used to drive relatively high exploration success rates. Exploring with 2D seismic is reminiscent of the ‘bad old days’ before 1995!Finally, as noted above, the results of the long-awaited 2010 Baffin Bay bid round have emerged. One wonders whether the delay was due to the regulatory authorities trying to figure out how to protect their pristine environment, perhaps – as a recent international conference hypothesised – by making sure that any company involved was big enough, competent enough and had enough financial muscle to deal with the consequences of any spill?

And by no means least, not for nothing is the portion of the Labrador Current flowing through the Davis Strait off western Greenland known as “iceberg alley”, huge chunks of ice that calve from the northern glaciers making their way into the northern Atlantic along this route. Individual exploration wells may well cost more than $150m and it is difficult to identify the technologies that would underpin a development today.

This feels like yet another ‘long game’ with the Majors still cautious about getting involved.

North America

Three years ago then-US President George W Bush urged Congress to end a 27-year ban on drilling for oil in US coastal waters, to make the US less reliant on imports. As mentioned before, the North Slope of Alaska has a long exploration history and it seemed

that the offshore areas of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas would begin to show renewed interest (after some exploration activity in the 1980’s and early 1990’s).

However, even before recent events in the Gulf of Mexico, the idea of drilling in the Arctic has been controversial, with environment groups worried about the effect on wildlife. Earlier in the spring, when President Obama announced his plan to suspend the long-standing moratorium on drilling offshore Florida in the Gulf of Mexico and along the lower portion of the East Coast, he nonetheless suspended a lease sale scheduled for the Beaufort Sea in the Arctic region of Alaska. These decisions reflect a view that the environmental risk of drilling these wells in the pristine waters off Alaska is too great to allow them to go forward.

Of course, President Obama has now imposed a moratorium on offshore drilling and one early outcome of this moratorium is the suspension of drilling permits for two wells Shell was planning to drill last summer off Alaska’s coast in the Chukchi Sea. One would imagine that the offshore Canadian Arctic – for example the Canadian Beaufort – will also see a pause for thought.

A ‘long game’?

So what’s different this time: why should we see a big jump in Arctic exploration?Perhaps the oil price is a reason for some folks.Some may think that $70-80 a barrel is high enough for production in the Arctic, which might cost $50 a barrel or more. Myself, I wonder whether anything economic can be foreseen at the moment, with enormously expensive wells – Cairn is said to have spent around $400m on its 2010 campaign - and unknown, or at least unproven, development technologies.Oil companies are also said to be running out of options.Many of the world’s most prolific basins, such as the North Sea, are in terminal decline and around the globe access to frontier exploration is ever more tightly controlled by host governments. True enough….but envisaging some production ‘this decade’ would also be useful.The prize may be huge.With uncanny precision, the USGS estimates that the total mean undiscovered conventional resources in the Arctic are approximately 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 90 billion barrels of oil and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, or about 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13 % of the world’s undiscovered oil, most of which lies offshore in less than 500 meters (1,640 feet) of water.However, digging in more detail into the USGS’s estimates, it may be that the Arctic holds as much as 160 billion barrels — enough to meet the world’s needs for more than five years — or as little as 40 billion. The astonishingly wide range of projections is testament to the difficulty of working in the region, where large stretches of ocean are still frozen for most of the year and ships must contend with icebergs the size of office buildings. In reality, projections of individual prospect sizes and regional resources are nothing more than guesstimates, based on disparate data, based on sketchy data.Overall, Arctic oil & gas feels like a very ‘long game’ requiring very deep pockets and

patience. And, naturally, the Gulf oil spill is heightening concerns about the risks posed by drilling – and eventually producing - in such remote regions.For now political tensions remain fairly low. That could change if companies are successful in Greenland; this would reverberate around the Arctic and heighten tensions everywhere. Large finds would fundamentally change the fortunes of the companies and the countries that own the rights.In the short term, despite the Greenlanders hope for important, transformational wealth and oil companies’ perennial desires to drill (and move their share price!), it seems to me that offshore Greenland exploration should not be rushed, especially given the environmental risks of which everybody has suddenly become increasingly aware.

Gazprom

01/05/2011

  The Gazprom Cables

'Not a Competitive Global Company'http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,737990,00.html

By Gregor Peter Schmitz

Gas giant Gazprom was meant to catapult Russia back into its role as a global superpower. Executives dreamed of the "most valuable company in the world." But secret cables from the US Embassy in Moscow provide a different picture: The Americans consider the mega firm to be chaotically organized and corrupt.

High-ranking representatives of Russian gas giant Gazprom are hard to pin down for appointments. So when American diplomats finally got the chance, they cut right to the chase: What are the giant energy company's actual business aims?

The Gazprom man was candid. The first priority, he said according to US diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks and shared with SPIEGEL and other partners, is to provide reliable and affordable gas to the domestic population. The second, he said is to "fulfill its social obligations," including charitable projects all across Russia.

The American envoys persisted in their questioning. Was it not also the goal of the company to maximize its shareholder value and its market share? Yes, of course. The cable cites the official also adding a third priority to his company's goal: to maximize "control over global energy resources."

A "Gazprom official describes the company as a socialist rent-seeking monopolist," the US envoys reported after a September 2008 meeting in a dispatch cabled to Washington.

'Huge Wealth, but Inefficient'

That's the tenor of a number of secret US Embassy reports about the model Russian company, cables that are filled with critical American assessments about a bureaucracy that has gone overboard and a mafia-like political system in Russia.

But the assessments are particularly pointed when it comes to Gazprom, the company the Russians themselves most like to celebrate and to deploy in their battle to regain lost power in the world. Even as recently as May 2008, Chairman Alexei Miller was pledging that Gazprom would soon be "the most valuable company in the world," with market capitalization that would reach $1 trillion in the near future. But around one year later, in the midst of the global economic and financial crisis, the company's market capitalization had dropped to $75 billion.

"Gazprom is," the Americans summed up in one cable, "what one would expect of a state-owned monopoly sitting atop huge wealth -- inefficient, politically driven, and corrupt." The American diplomats also painstakingly detailed the sectors in which the energy giant is engaged in and in which falling gas prices are creating problems for it.

Falling Demand for Gas

Their results are sobering. One 2009 cable states: "Far from reaching its ambitions of becoming 'the most valuable company in the world,' Gazprom's fortunes have reversed dramatically this year. The company's market value, production, and sales have all plummeted since the onset of the economic crisis." With dramatically reduced cash-flow, the cable reads, the company has been forced to cut back on capital expenditures and its ambitions, despite political rhetoric to the contrary.

The US diplomats described Gazprom's problems as likely being "longer term," and not just a by-product of the crisis. That's because demand for gas in Germany and Europe is in decline because industrial production there and across Europe has become more efficient.

At the same time, a cable noted, few new markets are opening up in the former Soviet states. Ukraine, for example, indicated it was considering halving its gas purchases. Gazprom Chairman Miller has for some time now been longing to establish a new market in the US but, as a cable states, the country is "looking more and more saturated every day with ever larger estimates for domestic production."

According to the assessment by the US diplomats, Gazprom's greatest problem is the company's own Byzantine structures. "Gazprom is not a competitive global company," the assessment reads, despite sitting on the world's largest gas reserves. "Gazprom is the legacy of the old Soviet Ministry of Gas and still operates much the same way."

A Top Executive with a Love for Hockey

There were many indications that this was the case. The Americans learned from an informant that a senior partner in an international accountancy firm needed two years just to unravel Gazprom's holdings. The empire included one of Russia's largest banks, an important Russian media company and a major construction firm.

Experts estimated that the company had to also spend between $5 billion and $8 billion on keeping its aging infrastructure in good working order -- costs that will only increase in the future. A prominent Western oil executive told the US diplomats that while drilling a borehole in Canada only took 10 days in Russia it took twice as long.

A meeting with top Gazprom executives, such as Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev, were also sobering. In a discussion with US diplomats, the hockey fan complained that there was still no cooperation between the Russian and American hockey leagues -- and fulminated against Ukraine, which he claimed had orchestrated the gas dispute with Russia.

The Americans' conclusion is devastating: "Gazprom's legacy and the government's ownership of the company … mean that it must act in the interests of its political masters, even at the expense of sound economic decision-making." The company had made funds available for many "private bank accounts and dirty deals," one cable wrote, though it lacked any concrete proof for this claim. Gazprom itself has consistently defended itself against accusations of corruption.

In any case, the Gazprom money was not flowing as much as previously, the US diplomats wrote. "Unfortunately for Gazprom and for the Russian government, the massive revenues and profits that the company produced in 2008 are unlikely to return anytime soon," one cable reported. Although Gazprom would remain a major company, its economic contribution was likely to be diminished, the US diplomats concluded.