russia after the financial crisis anders Åslund senior fellow peterson institute for international...
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Russia After the Russia After the Financial CrisisFinancial Crisis
Anders Anders ÅslundÅslund
Senior FellowSenior Fellow
Peterson Institute for International Peterson Institute for International EconomicsEconomics
May 2010May 2010
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Economic Economic StrengthsStrengths
High economic growth: 7% a year, High economic growth: 7% a year, 1999-20071999-2007
Persistent budget surpluses, 2000-Persistent budget surpluses, 2000-88
Huge current account surplusesHuge current account surplusesAccumulation of $598 bn of Accumulation of $598 bn of
reserves by August 2008, 3reserves by August 2008, 3rdrd biggest in the worldbiggest in the world
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Causes of High Causes of High GrowthGrowth
1.1. Market reforms 1991-3 & Market reforms 1991-3 & 1998-20021998-2002
2.2. Large underutilized Large underutilized capacitycapacity
3.3. High oil prices from 2003High oil prices from 2003
No contribution from PutinNo contribution from Putin
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Importance of Importance of EnergyEnergy
65% of Russia’s exports 200865% of Russia’s exports 200850% of state revenues50% of state revenuesBut “only” 20% of GDPBut “only” 20% of GDP
Russia is highly dependent on Russia is highly dependent on energy but not extreme energy but not extreme petrostatepetrostate
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Energy CurseEnergy Curse
Energy important for Energy important for Russia’s economyRussia’s economy
Energy rents breed Energy rents breed corruptioncorruption
……and authoritarianismand authoritarianism……and dysfunctional stateand dysfunctional state
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CorruptionCorruption
Source: Transparency International (2009)
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& Authoritarianism& Authoritarianism
Source: Freedom House
Free
Not Free
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Corruption out of ControlCorruption out of Control Transparency International: Russia Transparency International: Russia
146146thth out of 180 countries in 2009 out of 180 countries in 2009 Only Equatorial Guinea is richer than Only Equatorial Guinea is richer than
Russia and more corruptRussia and more corrupt Russia is so corrupt that it has failed Russia is so corrupt that it has failed
to extend its road net since 2000. to extend its road net since 2000.
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Shocking Crisis OutcomeShocking Crisis OutcomeGDP fell by 7.9% in 2009, likely to GDP fell by 7.9% in 2009, likely to
recover by 5-6% in 2010, but is that recover by 5-6% in 2010, but is that enough in comparison with BRICs?enough in comparison with BRICs?
State revenues fell by 4.7% of GDP State revenues fell by 4.7% of GDP from 2007 to 2009from 2007 to 2009
Industrial production tumbled: -Industrial production tumbled: -10.8% in 200910.8% in 2009
Exports collapsed: - 36% in 2009Exports collapsed: - 36% in 2009
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Industrial Production Industrial Production TumbledTumbled
But Has RecoveredBut Has Recovered
Source: Russian State Federal Statistics ServiceSource: Russian State Federal Statistics Service
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New Economic New Economic RealityReality
1.1. Budget revised: -6.0% of GDP 2009, Budget revised: -6.0% of GDP 2009, slightly better 2010slightly better 2010
2.2. Exchange rate has bottomed out Exchange rate has bottomed out and stabilizedand stabilized
3.3. Oil price has risen from $34/bl to Oil price has risen from $34/bl to $85/bl$85/bl
4.4. Inflation has fallen to annualized Inflation has fallen to annualized 6.5% in March: best news6.5% in March: best news
Acute crisis is over but shock remainsAcute crisis is over but shock remains
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Key ConcernsKey Concerns1.1. State corporations: octopuses State corporations: octopuses
and black holesand black holes
2.2. Gazprom in structural crisisGazprom in structural crisis
3.3. Police hated and dysfunctionalPolice hated and dysfunctional
4.4. Only military reform until 2012Only military reform until 2012
Malaise but only the beginning Malaise but only the beginning of a debate: Thawof a debate: Thaw
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Conclusions: Conclusions: PastPast
Putin has had luck, Putin has had luck, but he has done little but he has done little for Russiafor Russia
Severe economic Severe economic mismanagementmismanagement
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Conclusions: Conclusions: FutureFuture
Status quo is not an option: Russia Status quo is not an option: Russia is at Crossroadsis at Crossroads
1.1. Either more authoritarianism, Either more authoritarianism, state capitalism and state capitalism and protectionism (Putin: 4% growth)protectionism (Putin: 4% growth)
2.2. Or political and economic Or political and economic liberalization (Medvedev: 6.5% liberalization (Medvedev: 6.5% growth)growth)
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PossibilitiesPossibilitiesRenewed liberal economic Renewed liberal economic
reformsreforms–End to nationalization policyEnd to nationalization policy–Reform of state corporationsReform of state corporations–Renewed deregulationRenewed deregulation
Easing domestic repressionEasing domestic repressionRussian accession to WTORussian accession to WTO
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