russian-armenian (slavonic) university.€¦ · russian federation iran armenia’s...
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Armenia’s integration policy between ‘complementarity’ and ‘conditionality’
Norayr Dunamalyan
Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) University.
Policy Memo Presented at the Moscow BEAR Policy Conference
“Evaluating the Potential for Cooperation: the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union”
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)
September 16-17, 2019
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ARMENIA’S INTEGRATION POLICY BETWEEN “COMPLEMENTARITY”
AND “CONDITIONALITY”
By N. Dunamalyan
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Turkey
Russian Federation
Iran
Armenia’s geopolitical position
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EU
Civil society
Media
Strengthening of institutions and good governance
EAEU
Tax policy
Duties
Labor migrants
Energy
Trade
Agriculture
Medicine
Technology
The EU and the EAEU in Armenia’s complementarity policy
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62
54
4139
30
18
22
2527 28
810
23 22
1412 13
11 12
27
2011 2012 2013 2015 2017
Support Indifferent Don't support Don't know/refusal
Note: Question: Please tell me to what extent would you support Armenia's membership in the EU?
Source: The Caucasus Research Resource Center (CRRC).
Support of Armenia's membership in the
European Union, 2011–2017.
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61
67
64
56
46
50
26
19
21
29
33
30
8
5
8
10
15
15
5
9
7
5
6
5
0 20 40 60 80 100
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Definitly positive, rather positive/ definitly yes, rather yes indifferent Rather negative, definitly negative / Rather no, definitly no Don't know/No answer
Note: Question: Five countries have decided to create the EAEU (in essence, a single market for the five countries). What is your attitude
towards that decision?
Source: EDB (2017).
Dynamics of Armenia’s public perception of the EAEU, 2012–2017.
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0,435
0,915
1,169
1,644
1,904
1,440
1,669 1,799
1,915
2,192 2,079
1,491 1,382
1,539 1,512 3,577
4,9
6,384
9,206
11,662
8,648
11,121
10,546
11,537
12,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-
0,500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Migrant remittance inflows GDP
Source: World bank and Central bank of Armenia.
Migrant remittance inflows to Armenia in correlation to GDP, USD bln.
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46
50
48
46
54
65
70
62
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2016
2017
2018
2019
EAEU EU
Source: EDB, Annual survey report «EU NEIGHBOURS east».
The comparison of trust dynamics towards the EU and EAEU in Armenia, 2016-2019, per.
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• the necessity to continue complementary policy in order to
avoid a scarce resource base effects;
• foreign policy pressure caused by the reformatting of the
post-Soviet space international relations;
• internal political problems associated with the Armenian
political elite desire of power retain;
• economic crisis and vulnerability to external factors;
• national security of Armenia and the necessity of minimization
of the risks of active hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The factors of Armenia’s integration policy
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Source: IRI public opinion survey, may 2019