russian s&t foresight 2030: looking for new drivers of …
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RUSSIAN S&T FORESIGHT 2030: LOOKING FOR NEW DRIVERS OF GROWTH
Authors: Alexander Sokolov1, Alexander Chulok
2
1corresponding author, National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow,
[email protected] 2 National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, [email protected]
Keywords: Technology Foresight, STI policy
THE ABSTRACT
The paper represents results of the Russian S&T Foresight (2011-2013) – a fully-fledged
study targeted at the identification of the most promising areas of S&T development in Russia
towards 2030 to ensure the realisation of the nation’s competitive advantages. It was organised
as a complex project involving a dozen of institutions performing particular tasks under overall
coordination by the HSE and more than 3000 experts in various fields.
Its methodology embraced a set of qualitative and quantitative methods and combined
technology push and market pool approaches. For seven S&T areas (nano, energy, ICT, bio,
medicine, transport, rational use of nature) the following group of results have been obtained:
global trends, grand challenges, windows of opportunities (25 to 30 for each area); new markets
and niches (10 to 15 for each area); innovation products and services (3 to 5 for each market);
perspective technologies and R&D field (50 thematic groups, more than 1000 items for all
areas); assessment of Russia vis-à-vis world leaders; recommendations for S&T and innovation
policy.
Key issues discussed in the paper cover new drivers of economic growth and relevant
implications for STI policy; discussions of national challenges and building common vision of
the future among key stakeholder; the role of FTA and Foresight in particular as a
communication platform that helps integrating NIS stakeholders; search for responses to Grand
Challenges; using existing and building new capacities to increase national competitiveness and
to move up along existing and emerging global value chains.
The Russian Foresight, being deeply integrated in the national STI policy, can be
considered as a case of an emerging economy facing large-scale problems and analysed as a tool
for ‘wiring up’ the NIS of a country with its particular features and problems.
1. INTRODUCTION
Over the last decade both developed and emerging economies have faced a number of
Grand Challenges, most of which are related to globalization and fast technology development.
Security issues, energy and water supply, health problems, competitiveness in industrial
production as well as many other issues strongly depend on the national capacities of S&T and
innovation. Building such capacities require smart and well informed policies aimed at building
competitive advantages under condition of declining traditional businesses and emerging new
markets, dramatic changes in the structure of Global Value Chains. Search for adequate
responses to the challenges has to be based on the longer-term vision and engagement of wider
range of stakeholders to policy formulation. It becomes a more difficult task taking account of
more sophisticated links between the actors of NIS.
A major S&T development trend in the leading countries across the world during the
recent decades was the quest for new approaches to shape the S&T and innovation policy,
particularly by setting priorities for allocating R&D funding, and making informed strategic
decisions in the light of those priorities. During these efforts, a special emphasis was given to
R&D, which creates future-oriented S&T impacts – and thus supports industrial innovation.
R&D has a great role to play in dealing with Grand Challenges, which the society and
economy are expected to face in the medium to long term. Grand Challenges require integrated
and interdisciplinary efforts responses [European Commission, 2010]. In this respect, applied
research is expected to make an immense contribution in a number of areas, for instance, for the
purpose of the depletion of strategic mineral resources; discovery of alternative energy sources,
and ensuring energy safety; tackling with the ageing society and changing lifestyles; fighting
against diseases; creation of a “green economy” towards a “post-carbon” society; development
of novel economic growth models; and exploitation of the new and emerging technologies
accompanied by a radical change of the industrial structure and other factors, which determine
competitiveness.
Setting long-term S&T priorities for creates a foundation for future economic growth;
determines the opportunities for entering prospective markets while creating new ones; and
provides a basis for technological modernisation of the sectors of the economy; as well as
generating much-needed skilled and competent labour force for these transforming systems.
The aforementioned developments have significant importance for the development of
the Russian innovation system, which inherited a historically developed gap between R&D and
business with a depletion of the pool of successful future-oriented S&T studies generated during
the Soviet period [Gokhberg, Kuznetsova, 2011]. In this respect, the idea of supporting a
coordinated R&D programme emerged with the aim of creating and accumulating a critical mass
of successful S&T applications with implications for the strategies to achieve those outcomes to
be implemented by the government, state-owned companies and all other relevant stakeholders.
The Russian Federation sets an ambitious goal of becoming one of more advanced
economies with higher living standards for its population. There is a common understanding that
it cannot be realised within the framework of the current “resource-based growth model" which
is prone to exhaust itself1. A twofold objective will have to be accomplished, which requires both
breakthroughs in the development of global high-technology markets and modernisation of the
traditional sectors of the economy. Obviously, Russia’s future positions in the global value
chains largely depend on whether its economy would be able to successfully fit into the new
wave of technological development. This, in turn, requires concentrated effort by all key players
in business, R&D, government, education, as well as a broader society.
In the last decade, the Russian STI policies have undergone significant changes, which
primarily related to the coverage of actors concerned and the spectrum of the instruments used.
А gradual shift in the R&D support system has been manifested – from investing in the
established leading research teams to paying more attention to the new demand side – which is
related with strict budget limitations and poor outcome of the S&T system (Meissner et al,
2013). Obviously, in indentifying the related priorities and establishing the criteria for their
selection, one must keep in mind the “big picture” of the future, Grand Challenges and major
windows of opportunity, technological wild cards and the available S&T capacities. Such a level
of complexity requires conduction of Foresight at the national level with involvement of key
stakeholders and experts representing all S&T areas as well as the sectors of the economy
(Zweck, 2014).
This is a common trend for most of emerging economies facing new very complex
challenges. A number of Foresight studies in the field of S&T and innovation have been
performed in BRICS countries (see Cagnin, 2014; CAS, 2010; Kahn, 2008). Agendas of those
studies have very much in common. It aims at formulating STI policy and foster efficiency of the
National Innovation Systems on the basis of new technologies.
Russia has witnessed a significant growth is in the number of Foresight studies during the
last decade (see Figure 1); while at first, the initiative came mostly from the top level – i.e. the
1 RF President’s address to the Federal Assembly, 2012 - http://www.kremlin.ru/news/17118.
federal governmental agencies, development institutions etc., later on an enhanced activity has
been witnessed at the regional level – mainly in industrially developed regions and cities around
Russia, such as the city of Moscow; Yekaterinburg, Samara and Tomsk regions; Republic of
Bashkortostan; Krasnoyarsk Territory and others. Large companies increasingly initiate
Foresight studies in the framework of developing their long-term strategies (see for example,
Dekhtyaruk et al, 2015).
This process is reflected in gradual dissemination of Foresight culture at its penetration at
various levels of administrative decision making – national, regional, industrial and corporate.
The accumulation in Russia of a “critical mass” of Foresight activities has led to a demand for
establishing more complex and wired-up system of technology Foresight.
The first large-scale study at the national level was the S&T Foresight 2025, initiated in
2007 by the Russian Ministry of Education and Science. It included three large sections:
macroeconomic forecast for the Russian economy; a Foresight study for priority S&T areas; and
Foresight for several sectors of the national economy (Sokolov, 2007; Chulok, 2009; Sokolov,
2009). Within the framework of the second cycle of the national S&T Foresight (2008-2009), the
future of the global economy and of major markets was assessed.
The fully-fledged S&T Foresight 2030 study was initiated by the Russian Ministry of
Education and Science in 2011. Its goal was the identification of the most promising areas of
science and technology development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the realisation of the
nation’s competitive advantages (Sokolov, Chulok, 2012). It was organised as a complex project
involving a dozen of institutions performing particular tasks under overall coordination by the
National Research University – Higher School of Economics (HSE).
Figure 1. Dynamics of Foresight studies in Russia
2. METHODOLOGY
The S&T Foresight has been developed with a wide range of modern tools, which have
confirmed their effectiveness in international practices. A combination of normative (‘market
pull’) and explorative (‘technology push’) approaches was used in order to provide a balance
between long-term development goals and existing S&T capacities. The normative approach was
oriented at identification and analysis of key challenges and opportunities with respect to priority
S&T areas, followed by corresponding ‘technology packages’ and other innovation based
responses. In the explorative approach, there were singled out prospective breakthrough
technologies, which could radically change the existing economic, social and industrial paradigm
(Figure 2).
Figure 2. Methodology of Russian S&T Foresight: 2030
The expert community engaged in the project covered mosdt prominent Russian and
international scholars, businessmen, government officials. Some 150 key experts have worked in
seven thematic panels. On top of that around 3000 experts were engaged in interviews and
surveys relarted to particular issues.
The major steps in the Foresight studies were as follows (for details see [Sokolov,
Chulok, 2012 and Sokolov, Chulok, Mesropyan, 2013).
1. At the first stage, on the basis of biblimetric and patent analysis, desk research of over
200 different analytical reports, strategic documents and results of Foresight studies there
was developed a list of 150 global S&T, socio-economic and political trends and assessed
their potential effects as well as timelines of maximal influence of each trend.
2. On this basis there were selected trends that could create windows of opportunity and
threats for Russia for further more indepth analysis.
3. More than 80 promising innovative markets and over 250 relevant prospective product
groups were identified and described (including their technological and consumer
properties). This created a basis for identification of prospective market niches for
Russian technologies.
4. The thematic expert panels identified over 50 priority thematic S&T areas and more
than 1000 key R&D tasks to be addressed by the Government S&T programme.
5. There were identified global centres of competence for each S&T area and leading
Russian research units were benchmarked against the global leaders.
6. The final recommendations for policy-makers were based on a wide consultation with
different NIS actors and covered three major positions: markets, technologies and
governance. The dialogue with various beneficiary groups allowed not just to identify
promising S&T areas but also to understand potential policy tools for their future priority
development.
3. RESULTS
The S&T Foresight 2030 consists of seven sections dedicated to each of the seven priority S&T
areas, including:
1. Information and Communication Technologies
2. Biotechnology
3. Medicine and Health
4. New Materials and Nanotechnologies
5. Rational use of nature
6. Transportation and Space Systems
7. Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving
The results of the S&T Foresight 2030 were mentioned in the annual Presidential Address
to the Federal Assembly2. A new federal law “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”
approved in June 2014 envisages S&T Foresight as one of the key components of the system of
national Foresight studies. In April 2013, there was established an Interdepartmental
Commission on Technology Foresight subordinated to the Presidium of the Presidential Council
on Modernisation of Economy and Innovation Development of Russia. The Commission is
headed by the Minister of Education and Science and includes top-level officials from
government agencies, heads of large high-tech companies and leading research centres. It has
been playing a key role in establishinh and promoting the national S&T Foresight system3. The
S&T Foresight 2030 results were discussed at the Commission meetings with a focus on their
wide dissemination and implementation.
The Foresight study identifies future-oriented S&T research and results to be achieved
(for details see HSE, 2013) , which may serve as potential Russia’s “entry points” to global value
chains and increasing its niches in global markets (see Figure 3). The study has also revealed a
number of “white spots” where Russian S&T is significantly lagging behind the world leaders,
and in some cases doesn’t have any relevant R&D capacities.
2 http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/297.
3 Established by the Presidential Decree of May 7, 2012 № 596 "On the long-term national economic policies".
Figure 3 . Prospective innovative products and breakthrough technologies
Information and communication technologies
Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are among the key drivers of the shift
towards a knowledge-based economy. Their development contributes to increasing the quality of
life, efficiency of private businesses and public administration, emergence of new forms of
education systems, better communication and interaction of individuals with a possibility to
access to a wide variety of information in almost all aspects of life.
Despite the fact that the ICT domain demonstrates a quite dynamic life cycle of relevant
technologies, products and services, the role of accumulated pool of S&T results in this area
remains very important. Based on the expert panels’ conclusions, seven applied research areas
were identified with particular importance to Russia:
Telecommunication technologies
Data processing and analysis technologies
Hardware components, electronic devices and robotics
Predictive modeling and simulation
Algorithms and software
Information security
Computer architecture and systems
The results which can be obtained before 2030 include prototype systems based on new
computational principles; prototype multilanguage programming systems for knowledge
extraction and formalisation; data processing technologies to solve the Big Data problem; Next
Generation Business Intelligence with new analytical tools, including personal analytical
systems, tools for real-time data processing, mobile analysis, etc.
The highest market growth rates for the aforementioned S&T products are expected to be in
health, power engineering, mechanical engineering, transport, and in personal consumption of
ICT products and services. In the medium term (before 2020), the experts expect introduction of
electronic health passports; emergence of distributed networks of telemedicine centres;
development of quality control and safety system for drugs and medical services. By 2025,
medical micro-devices are expected to emerge, implanted into the body to support its vital
functions; technologies for exchanging standardised data between transport vehicles; universal
global positioning and identification techniques within the framework of the “Internet of Things”
concept; promising platforms for collecting, summarising and presenting the content and
knowledge. The experts noted possible integration of inbuilt digital devices into mechanical
engineering products, and development of programming technologies for inbuilt systems.
Evolution of cloud computing and the development of new architectures and computational
principles lead to transformation of software and may bring radical changes in business strategies
of companies operating in all sectors of the economy. A colossal growth of data volumes
available for analysis provides a foundation for a radical increase of efficiency of managerial
decisions, including in the analytical business applications segment (Business Intelligence).
However, according to the experts, Russian developers’ skill set does not cover all the areas of
applied research required to obtain prominent positions in the prospective markets – not by a
long shot. One of the most advanced areas is “New data transfer, networking, and content
distribution technologies”. In areas, such as “Computer-aided element base design technologies”,
“New data transfer technologies”, “Digital reality technologies and systems, prospective human-
ICT interfaces”, the level of Russian research did not receive high marks.
Biotechnology
The dynamic development of biotechnology can be explained not just by the advances achieved
in biochemistry, bio-organic chemistry and molecular biology, but also by the crisis of traditional
technologies (especially when considering the new trends, particularly environment- and energy-
related); the need to ensure food supply, raw materials, and medical security; sustain the supply
of resources; increase people’s lifespan; and support healthy national gene pool.
Future-oriented research plays a major role in developing adequate responses to these challenges.
Based on the results emerged from the expert panels, seven topics for applied research were
identified within the priority research area in question as the most promising for Russia:
Development of the scientific and methodological basis of biotechnology R&D
Industrial biotechnology
Agrobiotechnology
Environmental biotechnology
Food biotechnology
Forest biotechnology
Aqua biotechnology.
Their development would contribute to achieve economic growth, enter high-technology
markets, and accomplish numerous national first-order objectives.
New kinds of biofuel would contribute to the diversification of the fuel-and-energy balance and
reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions. Cellular, genomic and post-genomic technologies
would allow making biomaterials from renewable raw materials, replacing traditional chemical
production and developing innovative products with unique properties. They would also help to
bring back rare and endangered flora and fauna species, and to preserve oceanic resources.
Improvement of technologies for bio-organic waste processing will contribute to waste disposal,
and reducing environmental pollution. With the introduction of new highly productive bio-
objects, and application of efficient operating practices production processes could be
significantly intensified. Development of technologies for producing new varieties of agricultural
plants and new breeds of animals with improved properties would contribute in producing of
high-quality and not expensive food.
At the same time achieving the above-mentioned effects and securing a meaningful niche on
promising emerging markets require a radical improvement of Russian producers’ competency
levels, which currently are quite uneven. Among the most advanced applied research areas the
experts identified “High-performance techniques for genome, transcriptome, proteome, and
metabolome analysis”; “Systematic and structural biology”; “Microorganism strains and microbe
consortia for creating symbiotic plant-microbial communities”. On the other hand, in a number
of other areas, such as “Biotechnological processes for making biomaterials, fine and mainline
organic synthesis products from renewable raw materials”, “Techniques for building genetic
databases of plant varieties and seed certification”, “Environmentally safe biocides”, the level of
Russian research conducted in recent years remains insufficient.
Medicine and health
Increasing the quality of life and prolonging life expectancy is a major priority of the
government policy as an indicator of the country’s strategic development and national security
progress4. Accomplishing of these objectives largely depends on the level of future-oriented
R&D and its results, which have become significantly more important in the recent years. The
experts identified seven topics for applied research as the most promising ones for Russia.
Molecular diagnostics
Molecular profiling and identification of molecular and cellular pathogenesis
mechanisms
Biomedical cell technologies
Biocomposite materials for medical application
Bio-electrodynamics and radiation medicine
Genomic passportisation of humans
Discovery of candidate drugs
Key trends identified in this area include growth of oncological, cardiovascular and infectious
diseases; ageing of the population; ubiquitous spreading of metabolic diseases and brain
pathologies. In turn, these challenges create new international markets where dynamics will be
closely linked to demand for diagnostics and treatment techniques based on personalised
medicine principles, reliable non-invasive express monitoring technologies for home application,
technologies for remotely accessing preventive, safe and highly effective medical services.
There is already a strong demand for an increased quality of life, especially in terms of
restoration of lost body or organs’ functionality in total or partially. Research and development
in bio-information, post-genomic and proteomic technologies provide an opportunity to
personalise therapeutic effects. For instance, drugs would be prescribed on the basis of analysis
of the patient’s individual features. According to the expert evaluations, at least half of new
drugs, which are expected to appear on the international markets by 2015 would have
pharmacogenetic properties. Regenerative medicine technology is a major area of modern R&D,
which is expected to address brain, locomotorium, oncological and many other diseases. The
leading countries of the world have already achieved promising results in human organs
regeneration, while Russia has practically made no progress in this area.
According to the experts, by 2015 Russia may expect to achieve significant scientific and
practical results in the following fields: “Biocompatible biopolymeric materials”; “Self-
sterilising coatings for medical applications”; “Testing systems based on genomic and
postgenomic technologies, for diagnosing cancer, system, infectious and hereditary diseases”;
“Biosensors and biochips for clinical diagnostics, based on new types of biological devices”;
“Techniques for fast identification of toxic substances and pathogens”.
Successes achieved in innovative pharmaceutics – biotechnologies, chemical synthesis
technologies, targeted therapeutic effects, production of advanced effective vaccines – would
4 See e.g. [the RF President’s address to the Federal Assembly, 2012].
allow Russian companies to enter promising international markets, and the government to raise
citizens’ quality of life.
In a number of areas, such as “Gradient ceramics-based biodegradable materials” and “Medical
textile with unique therapeutic properties”, the potential of Russian developments is already
considered to be significant. Further advancement of future-oriented research and securing
advantages would require development of existing and establishing new translation medicine
centres, for the development of pre-clinical technologies.
New materials and nanotechnologies
Changes in the present image of the economy and society are to a large extent linked to large-
scale application of new materials and nanotechnologies in production processes and the service
sectors.
Among the promising topics for applied research in Russia the experts mentioned the following
ones:
Structural and functional materials;
Hybrid materials, converging technologies, biomimetic materials and medical supplies;
Diagnostics of materials;
Computer simulation of materials and processes.
According to optimistic assessments, the first noticeable effects, primarily in nanoelectronics,
photonics, nanobiotechnology, medical products and equipment, neuroelectronic interfaces, and
nanoelectromechanical systems, can be expected as early as within next five years. The largest
breakthroughs of the next decade may include molecular production of macroscopic objects
(“desktop nanofactories”), and emergence of atomic design. Convergence of nano-, info-, bio-,
and cognitive technologies potentially may lead to extending the active stage of human life.
Possibly, the above-mentioned areas would largely determine the level of technologies of the
future; however, due to specific features of the field under consideration here, it does not seem
possible to predict exactly which segments have the best chances of achieving breakthroughs.
Large expectations are first of all associated with development of hybrid structures combining
organic and non-organic fragments, live tissues and synthetic components capable of giving
them new properties; with development of nanocomposites, which would allow to make
materials of unique strength, elasticity and conductivity – particularly important for achieving
progress in alternative power engineering; with mathematical modelling of nanomaterials’
properties, which is expected to significantly accelerate creation of new systems with useful
properties.
Nanomaterials will also play a major role in dealing with economic problems, since they are at
the core of advanced sensing and water treatment technologies, separation processes, and many
“green chemistry” areas. They serve as a basis for development of numerous drugs, targeted
delivery systems for them, and express diagnostics technologies for live organisms.
The experts were in agreement regarding the majority of application areas - future markets for
nanotechnologies and new materials. For example, the application of nanotechnologies is
expected to become more active in lighting equipment, sports, textile industry as early as by
2015; and extended application of nanotechnologies in automobile and aerospace industries,
shipbuilding, food industry, and construction is foreseen by 2020-2030. In the medium term, the
emergence of markets is expected, which would combine large volumes and high growth rates,
specifically: nanotechnological applications in automobile production, mining and processing
equipment, pharmaceutical and medical equipment, power engineering.
Russia’s chances for participating in these major changes, or even taking a leading position in
certain areas, are largely determined by the level of future-oriented research within six most
promising fields identified.
Unlike most of the other priority areas for applied research discussed in this report, the level of
Russian R&D in nanotechnology and new materials was evaluated by the experts as quite high,
particularly in such fields as “Nano-size catalysts for deep processing of raw materials” and
“Nano-structured membrane materials”. However, there is also a number of “white spots”, where
the level of Russian R&D was judged to be low. These, for example, include “Construction
materials for power engineering”.
Rational use of nature
In the era of globalisation and rapid development of science and technology, natural environment
becomes increasingly vulnerable. Continueing with the established inertial environment
management scenario in the future is unacceptable and involves significant risks in terms of
possible loss of life and limitation of economic growth. Most of the global challenges the
humankind will face in the near future are connected with the environment and its inefficient
management. These include, first of all, depletion of several critical resources; climate change;
growing anthropogenic pressure and pollution of natural environments; loss of biodiversity, etc.
Future-oriented research certainly plays a major role in developing systemics and integrated
responses to these challenges. However, if the international community has already realised the
importance of moving on to environmentally friendly development (“green growth”), in Russia
these topics are traditionally treated on the basis of the “leftover principle”.
Based on the results of the expert panels’ discussions, this report presents five thematic fields for
applied research under the “Rational use of nature” priority area, as the most promising for
Russia:
Environmental protection and safety technologies;
Monitoring of environment, assessment and forecasting of natural and technogenic
emergencies;
Rational use of natural resources;
Exploration of subsoil assets, mineral prospecting and integrated development of mineral
and hydrocarbon resources;
Exploration and utilisation of oceanic resources, the Arctic and Antarctic.
Results which could be achieved before 2030 include the development of systems for monitoring
the state of environment, assessing and forecasting natural and anthropogenic emergencies;
exploration and integrated development of mineral resources; highly efficient and safe
techniques for marine prospecting and mining of hydrocarbons under extreme natural and
climatic conditions. Their development and implementation would lead to more efficient
utilisation of the country’s mineral resources and their reproduction; decreasing the level of
environment pollution; and minimising damage caused by natural and anthropogenic
emergencies.
Gradual transformation of environmental technologies from a cost item into a revenue-
generating factor contributing to increasing the investments flow and entering new markets
havebecame a significant trend in recent years. According to the expert estimates, in the medium
term (by 2020), the following application areas for these technologies will have the highest
growth rates: environmentally clean materials and products; software and geoinformation
systems; equipment and materials for increasing efficiency of mining and processing of
minerals; systems for early detection and forecasting natural and anthropogenic emergencies. In
the long term (2020-2030), a significant growth is expected on water treatment and recycling
markets; environmentally safe waste disposal; secondary raw materials and finished products
made by recycling waste and drainage, and related equipment.
For Russia, the need for future-oriented research in the rational use of nature area is due not just
to the opportunities to secure significant shares of the above promising markets, but also because
of the threat to lose its current positions in the traditional segments – as a consequence of
continuous toughening of international environmental-related standards for product quality and
for technologies used for their production. Solving this multifaceted problem requires advanced
qualifications for Russian researchers and developers in all of the applied research areas
mentioned above.
Ttransportation and space systems
In the near future, transportation systems will become a basis for development of accessible,
inexpensive, safe, speedy and predictable transport links, both on regional and international
levels. Improvement of transport communications will bring about the “space compression”
effect – i.e. distances between locations would seem much shorter to consumers of transport
services. Achieving that kind of socio-economic effect involves various applied studies across
the whole transportation complex, including aviation and space. The key research areas in this
respaect are as follows:
Models of transport-economic balance and smart transportation systems with the use of
supercomputing resources at the exaflop level;
New materials and technologies for construction and operation of transport infrastructure
in the Arctic and sub-Arctic areas;
Technologies to reduce the harmful impact of transport on the environment;
Technologies to ensure safe travel in difficult conditions;
Small spacecraft clusters;
Aircrats and spacecrafts for launching suborbital small satellites;
Systems for wireless energy transmission to transport and space equipments;
Systems of autonomous landing of aircrafts and landing space vehicles, and autonomous
navigation of land and water vehicles;
Extra-long flexible elements for static and dynamic space tether systems;
Materials for the extreme conditions of space flights, high-speed travel in terrestrial and
aquatic environments.
First of all, efficiency of transport planning must be significantly increased – by creating
transport-economic balance and applying advanced modelling techniques. Increasing
accessibility and quality of services, effective speed and stability of transport in the current
situation of heavy traffic – is a big challenge, and the only way to meet it is by developing new-
generation transport technologies. Another challenge related to organisation of high-speed
transportation is the need to increase people’s mobility, which was noted in the RF President’s
address to the Federal Assembly of 12 December, 2012 [the RF President’s address to the
Federal Assembly, 2012].
An efficient modern transportation complex can become a “locomotive” of the Russian
economy, and promote the country’s innovation-based development; however, creating it
requires significant financial resources, which cannot be obtained exclusively from the federal
budget. Therefore the key economic challenge for the transport sector is increasing its
investment attractiveness – which can be achieved by reducing costs, increasing efficiency of
construction and maintenance of infrastructure, and increasing productivity.
At the same time several international high-tech markets still look quite attractive for Russian
companies. According to the expert assessments, the highest growth rates in the medium term
can be expected for smart transportation systems and new management systems, environmentally
safe and energy-efficient transport vehicles. Particular attention should be paid to markets whose
growth rates can increase after 2020. These first of all include multimodal passenger and freight
transportation and logistics systems; new materials and technologies for transport construction;
prospective transport vehicles and systems; and space services.
Among the most competitive areas of Russian R&D the experts noted “Development of research
models to study transport situation in the Arctic and subarctic areas”, “Development of air- and
spacecraft to launch suborbital small-size space satellites”, and several other topics related to
new-generation carrier rockets and spacecrafts, innovative transportation vehicles and systems
for marine and air transport. Still, this is by no means an exhaustive list of priority S&T
development areas matching the forecasted dynamics of global markets.
Energy efficiency and energy saving
The state of the energy industry largely determines the overall competitiveness of the economy,
the society’s development level and the quality of the environment. In Russia, the need to ensure
long-term sustainable and efficient development of the energy industry is defined by the
country’s leading export positions, and the industry’s role in generating government budget
revenues. The industry is highly inertial, has a long investment cycle; development of new
technologies involves high costs and a lot of time, and requires interdisciplinary research. Also,
practically in every case there are several possible S&T development areas to pursue, and a
wrong or non-optimal choice can result in major losses and increased lagging behind the leading
countries of the world. Accordingly, identifying long-term global energy trends and conducting
relevant future-oriented research become particularly important. The experts identified the
following key areas of research for Russia:
Safe nuclear power engineering;
Efficient exploration and mining of fossil fuels;
Efficient utilisation of renewable energy sources;
Efficient and environmentally clean heat and power engineering;
Prospective bioenergy;
Efficient storage of electric and thermal energy;
Efficient transportation of fuel and energy;
Modeling prospective power generation technologies and systems;
New materials and catalysts for power engineering of the future;
Efficient energy consumption;
Development of advanced electronic component base for power engineering;
Smart power generation systems of the future;
Hydrogen power;
Deep processing of organic fuels.
Regarding fossil fuel production, among the most important research and development areas
there are robotic installations for submarine and subterranean hydrocarbon production, remotely
controlled and with prolonged automated operation periods; development of technologies for
efficient hydrocarbon production at nonconventional sites (including gas hydrates, oil sands,
extra-heavy crude oil, shale gas, coal strata gas) and under anomalous conditions (dense
formations, abnormally high pressure, ultra-deep horizons, large depths, low volume density of
resources, etc.). Technologies for deep processing of off-grade resources of natural gas and low-
quality coal, to produce competitive motor fuels and chemical products, are also being actively
developed.
A clear trend in heat and power engineering is the development of materials and technologies for
making highly flexible high-power gas-turbine installations with maximum efficiency factor and
minimum pollutant emissions, which in the future are going to become the foundation of major
energy industry. Also under way is active research of fast reactors’ safety and safe closed nuclear
cycle – an important element of centralised electric energy supply. Future development of low-
power energy installations is connected with the production of low-temperature fuel cells with
extremely high efficiency factor and long service life, without specific requirements to fuel
quality, and low production and maintenance costs.
Policy implementation and future goals for Russian S&T Foresight
The results of the S&T Foresight 2030 have been widely discussed at regular high-level
expert panels, series of national and international confertences and workshops. The
dissemination of results included numerous presentations at the sites of federal and regional
authorities, development institutions, business associations, companies, technology platforms,
innovative regional clusters, domestic and foreign universities and research centres, and
international organisations.
Among the beneficiaries of the Foresight results there are the government agencies in
charge of formulation of STI policies; large state-owned and private corporations dealing with
high-tech; development institutes supporting innovations (Rusnano, Russian Venture Company
et al); regional authorities working-out regional innovation strategies and developing innovation
territorial clusters. The Foresight outputs can also be used by the research community for better
orientation among promising areas of research and undestanding their potential applications as
well as promoting results of their research among business through the established within the
project communication platforms. The business community use the project results to formulate
strategies for development of enterprises and investing in technological modernisation.
Practical implementation of Foresight results and their influence on the decision-making
processes reflects the impact of the study. The tools for practical use of the results achieved
include development detailed technology roadmaps, lists of S&T fields to be funded through
government programmes and a set of policy recommendations at different levels. To some
extent, this was the first case in Russia when Foresight played a role a pacemaker for building up
reflexivity in the policy making system (in terms proposed by Havas et al, 2010)
As it was shown above the S&T Foresight have been implemented as a kind of “rolling
exercise”, which was to a great extent based on the previously performed projects. In its turn, it
initiated wide discussions of Foresight related issues among various stakeholders, which
promoted the idea of establishing a national system of technology Foresight.
There were several actions made at the federal level that bring new prospects to overall
S&T Foresight related activities in Russia. The S&T Foresight was mentioned in the annual
Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly5. A new federal law “On Strategic Planning in the
Russian Federation” adopted in June 2014 envisages S&T Foresight as one of the key
components of the system of national Foresight studies. In April 2013, there was established an
Interdepartmental Commission on Technology Foresight subordinated to the Presidium of the
Presidential Council on Modernisation of Economy and Innovation Development of Russia. The
Commission is headed by the Minister of Education and Science and includes top-level officials
from government agencies, heads of large high-tech companies and leading research centres. The
results of the S&T Foresight 2030 were discussed at the Commission meetings with a focus on
their wide dissemination and implementation.
All this creates a solid background for initiating new rounds of S&T Foresight and
building linkages betweeen this activity and Foresight studies implemented by different players
at the federal, sectoral, regional and corporate levels.
The above presented approaches to shaping STI policy and in particular to setting priorities
for allocating R&D funds, which have been increasingly used in Russia during the last decade to
better inform strategic decisions and formulation long-term policies, reflect growing role of S&T
as a key driver for creating future-oriented innovation capacities based on bridging the gap
between research and market applications. Foresight exposes the potential of S&T to respond the
Grand Challenges, which the society and economy are expected to face in the medium to long
term.
5 http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/297.
CONCLUSIONS
Setting long-term priorities for S&T and innovation creates a foundation for future
economic growth. It determines the opportunities for entering prospective markets while creating
new ones and provides a basis for technological modernisation of various sectors of the economy
and for generating much-needed skilled and competent labour force.
The modern trends in S&T Foresight studies, which are witnessed in many countries,
reflect gradual “incorporation” of Foresight into the S&T policy making systems. Russia, which
has been actively learning best global practices, becomes one of the global players due to the
scale of its Foresight activities. To fully exploit the capacity of S&T Foresight in Russia, two
major dimensions have to be taken into account. First, establishing of closer cooperation between
key stakeholders is of crucial importance for wiring-up the national system of S&T Foresight. It
should be targeted at involvement different government agencies and large companies in the
process of building long-term visions and developing shared and coordinated policies and sets of
actions. The second dimension is related to engagement of key experts (both Russian and
international) from particular research areas and sectors of economy. All this will allow the
transformation of Foresight into a more efficient STI policies instrument, oriented towards a long
term prospective.
The identified and analysed global trends in the seven priority areas of S&T development
are becoming increasingly important for drawing up STI policy and for identifying the promising
markets and product groups in the interest of companies of the real sector of the economy.
Trends in various S&T areas are often closely interconnected, which means that in the future the
most successful technologies can be widely diffused and have large indirect impacts. According
to experts, among the priority sectors to be addressed by S&T in the medium and long-term are
the following: energy, oil and gas processing, petrochemical industry, mechanical engineering,
information and communication systems, and transportation.
The major long-term socio-economic trends like post-industrial development, the shorter
life cycles of industrial production, birth of “glocalisation”, "new industrialisation" in developed
countries and others create demand for ensuring a new quality of industrial growth. It requires
more efficient STI policy and intensifying the ability of economic agents to innovate.
Introducing culture of technology Foresight has become a major tool for conducting studies
about possible trajectories of S&T development that allow to combine and coordinate activities
of the government, business and academic community in the search for the new sources of long-
term growth. In Russia this is reflected in the formation of a national technology Foresight
system and the development of the infrastructure and mechanisms that make possible systematic
interactions between key stakeholders in the national innovation system and their participation in
the development of national STI policy by the construction of legitimised and shared
technological visions of the future economy.
A gradual “incorporation” of Foresight into the S&T policy-making should be
complemented with converging existing (e.g. quantitative and qualitative) as well as developing
and implementing more sophisticated methods and using new sources of data provided by the
growing power of ICT (Big Data, semantic search, visual presentation of Foresight data, etc.).
The Russian S&T Foresight 2030 has shown that there still is a big room for further
development of Foresight: methodology and organization; engagement and networking a wider
expert communities (e.g. international) and citizens; invading new sectors; integrating Foresight
studies at different levels (national, sectoral, regional and corporate; deeper integration into
policy formulation and implementation. The steps in this direction will allow increase Foresight
capacities and make it a built-in tool for STI policy.
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