russian’grain:’current’situa.on’...
TRANSCRIPT
Russian grain: current situa.on and 2014/15 outlook
1
Dmitry Rylko General director IKAR Moscow, Russia
Kiev, March, 2014
2
Presenta;on highlights
Russian agriculture and grains some general notes 2013/14 highlights Contours of 2014/15
3
Russian agriculture and grains Agriculture to con;nue to remain as key na;onal
priority (food security, rural popula;on)… 2013-‐20 Program: animal proteins, irriga;on, greenhouses, regional programs support… Grains and oilseeds are, generally, a type of self-‐propelled (not in focus, unless they are supported by the region)…
-2 000
-1 000
0
1 000
2 000
3 000 Beef
Import (incl. Belarus, offals, fat), TMT
CAGR = 0%
-2 000
-1 000
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000 Pork
Import (incl. Belarus, offals, fat), TMT
CAGR = 6%
-2 000 -1 000
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000
Poultry
Import (incl. Belarus, offals, fat), TMT
CAGR = 13%
IKAR
CAGR = -2%
Domes;c meat self-‐sufficiency
Growing Russian meat self-‐sufficiency
5
RUK shares in world export (es;mated)
7
2013/14 highlights • Changing quality spectrum • Changing des;na;on spectrum
• Logis;cal issues
Russian grain cumula;ve export
(Official) domes;c grain stocks
Due to very aggressive export path by the end of 2013/14 ((official) domes;c grain stocks will be lower than last year’s lowest… It will also refer to four out of five key domes;c produc;on regions…
Stocks South
Central Volga
Siberia
Ural
Wheat price index, $
Feed grain price index, $
14
Changing quality/des;na;on spectrum
Russian export structure, MMT IKAR
Russian wheat export per regions, ТМТ
18,1%22,8%
26,2%
45,2%
31,9%
20,2%
14,2%
18,4%
15,9%
6,0%
7,4%
7,7%
9,3%
7,5%
6,7%
3,3%
4,7%
5,0%
3,9%
7,3%
18,3%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014
Middle East
CIS
Remote des.n.
North Africa
Turkey
Sub.Sahara Europe
Key feature of 2013/14 is unusually high share of remote des;na;ons in Russian wheat export (Indonesia – 273, Peru 325, Mexico 265, etc.)
17
Growing US energy self-‐sufficiency spin-‐off Russian HRW in Mexico…
2011/2012 2012/2013
Russian wheat export per country break-‐downs, TMT
Azerbaijan
Ethiopia Georgia
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Others
Greece Albania Iraq Lebanon Armenia
Iran
Tunis Djibouti Spain
Jordan Libya Italy Israel Kenya Yemen Turkey Egypt
W3 W4 Feed wheat
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Others
Lebanon Sudan Jordan
Morocco Tunis
Albania Tanzania Greece Armenia
Spain Azerbaijan
Libya Yemen Kenya Israel
Georgia Iraq Iran
Turkey Egypt
W3 W4 Feed wheat
2013/2014
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Others
Mexico UAE
Jordan Bangladesh
Indonesia Tanzania
Nigeria Mozambique
Peru Libya
Sudan Kenya Israel
Georgia South Africa Azerbaijan
Iran Yemen Turkey Egypt
W3 W4 Feed wheat
Egypt is no longer our key export des;na;on…
Importers want from us more and more protein, and they get it…
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014
W3 W4 Feed wheat
20
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
14 000 000
16 000 000
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014
Russian Black Sea grains export path
Russian Azov Sea grains export path
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Logis;cs. Five Russian Black Sea terminals and Kerch transshipping scheme…
Azov Sea
Black Sea
Kerch raid transshipping: 6-‐th Russian virtual Black Sea “terminal”
Kerch raid transshipping
Kerch raid transshipping
Kerch raid transshipping
Why Kerch scheme? – strengthened Novo trucks weight control
+ Azov Sea terminals rela;ve over-‐capacity + Too high Black Sea terminals tariffs + very strong Kerch port raid service level…
Kerch transshipping as 6-‐th Russian Black Sea “virtual terminal”
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 NMC NGT KSK Tuapse Taman
Сoasters – end useds
Unindentifie
Kerch transshipping
July-December 2013/2014 July-February
From Kerch to Siberia: railroad transporta;on matrix
South Central North-West Volga Ural Siberia Far East TotalSouth 95 288 263 64 25 8 1 744 3803
Central 178 746 686 302 69 122 26 2129 1475North-West 1 4 65 17 5 12 1 105 2
Volga 20 231 182 336 95 28 3 895 313Ural 0 6 25 112 101 2 2 249 15
Siberia 48 153 565 287 107 241 206 1605 423Far East 1 14 0 7 19 165 24 229 12
Kazakhstan 69 75 36 98 305 75 4 662 1479Total 411 1518 1822 1221 726 653 267 6618 7522
Federal DistrictInternal transportations
Export
New railroad tariffs makes it more advantageous transportation from remote (Siberia) areas to terminal (mainly export) markets…
Russian import of Kazakhstan grain by railroad
Russia import of Kazakhstan grain by railroad and auto
If to add hidden truck deliveries, Kazakhstan estimated export to Russia already Exceeded 1 MMT. Isn’t it a sign of “single market”?
Record Russian corn export, TMT
Start of seasonal “short-covering”
illness
New 2014/15 season’s contours
Change of exchange rates
FOREX dynamics and level may play an abnormal role in Black Sea trade 2014/15
Wheat 3rd
cl. Wheat 4th cl. Wheat 5th cl. Rye Barley Total
South 73 19 92 N.Caucasus 113 5 0.2 118 Central 2 42 0.3 44 N.West 1 1 Volga 192 36 3 99 37 367 Urals 97 26 123 Siberia
628/254 98/97 31/31 1 107/107 865/0.5
Total: 919 389 58 100 147 1613
March 2014 Russian Interven;on fund stocks break down
Total/incl. 2013/14 campaign
In 2013/14 there was no any sizable Russian interven;on fund restocking. Moreover, by the end of 2013/14 IF will be affected by massive producers buy-‐back claims.
34
2014/15 winter sowing campaign in Russia, THA
South
All Russia
Central
…2014/15 sowing evolved from disaster to bad to fair to hopeful to (very) promising…
Winter crop condition, MHA
Record low share of poor or non-‐germinated winter grains up-‐to-‐date…
36
“What is our winter crop? Grass… But very good grass”… Farmer in Stavropol area, April 8, 2014
Winter wheat sowing, THA
Winter wheat production, TMT
Spring wheat sowing, THA
Spring wheat production, TMT
Spring barley sowing, THA
Spring barley production, TMT
Corn planting, THA
Corn production, TMT
Russia corn seeds import, MT
Corn planting, THA
Russian grain balance
IKAR apr IKAR aprarea harvested, MHA 44,1 44,9 46,1 46,0yield, ton/ha 2,14 1,58 2,00 2,02carry-‐ins, MMT 16,8 16,6 8,4 10,7production, MMT 94,2 70,9 92,3 93,0import, MMT 0,9 1,8 1,8 1,8total availability, MMT 111,9 89,3 102,5 105,5domestic disappearance, MMT 67,6 64,6 67,7 67,8export, MMT 27,7 16,3 24,1 24,8total disappearance, MMT 95,3 80,9 91,8 92,6ending stocks, MMT 16,6 8,4 10,7 12,9
2013/14 est. 2014/15 prj.
2011/12 2012/13
Russian wheat balance
USDA mar IKAR apr IKAR apr
area harvested, MHA 25,7 24,8 23,4 25,1 24,0yield, ton/ha 2,19 1,52 2,20 2,07 2,16carry-‐ins, MMT 12,4 11,2 5,0 5,0 7,5production, MMT 56,2 37,7 52,1 52,1 51,8
winter 34,4 25,5 35,9 33,5spring 21,8 12,2 16,2 18,3
import, MMT 0,4 1,2 1,0 1,3 1,2total availability, MMT 69,0 50,1 58,0 58,4 60,5domestic disappearance, MMT 36,7 34,1 34,5 33,9 34,5export, MMT 21,1 11,0 17,5 17,0 17,8total disappearance, MMT 57,8 45,1 52,0 50,9 52,3ending stocks, MMT 11,2 5,0 6,0 7,5 8,2
2014/15 prj.2013/14 est.2011/12ИКАР
2012/13IKAR
Russian barley balance
USDA mar IKAR apr IKAR apr
area harvested, MHA 8,0 8,9 8,0 9,1 9,1yield, ton/ha 2,12 1,58 1,90 1,70 1,79carry-‐ins, MMT 1,2 0,7 0,7 0,4 0,8production, MMT 16,9 14,0 15,4 15,4 16,3import, MMT 0,5 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3total availability, MMT 18,6 15,0 16,4 16,1 17,4domestic disappearance, MMT 14,3 12,4 12,8 13,0 13,5export, MMT 3,5 2,2 2,5 2,3 2,7total disappearance, MMT 17,8 14,6 15,3 15,3 16,2ending stocks, MMT 0,7 0,4 1,1 0,8 1,2
2011/12 2012/13
2013/14 est. 2014/15 prj.
Russian corn balance
USDA mar IKAR apr IKAR apr
area harvested, THA 1 743 2 094 2100 2479 2650,0yield, ton/ha 3,99 3,92 5,00 4,69 4,42carry-‐ins, TMT 450 311 295 575production, TMT 6 962 8 213 10682 11635 11700,0import, TMT 34 58 100 60 65,0total availability, TMT 7 446 8 582 10782 11990 12340domestic disappearance, TMT 5 250 6 360 7600 7615 7950export, TMT 1 885 1 927 3000 3800 3800,0total disappearance, TMT 7 135 8 287 11415 11750ending stocks, TMT 311 295 400 575 590
2011/12 2012/13
2014/15 prj.2013/14 est.
Sunflower planting, THA
Sunflower production, TMT
Record sunoil export 2013/14
1 412
9431030
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
0
50
100
150
200
250
2011/12 2012/132013/14 2011/12 cumulative2012/13 cumulative 2013/14 cumulative
Russia sunflower seeds import, MT
Sunflower planting, THA
Rapeseed planting, THA
Rapeseed production, TMT
Corn planting, THA
Corn production, TMT
Russia soybean seeds import, MT
Soybean planting, THA
