The 18th AIM International WorkshopOhyama Memorial Hall at NIES

14 15 December 201214-15 December 2012

NonNon--CO2 Emissions Analysis:CO2 Emissions Analysis:Expansion of AIM/Expansion of AIM/EnduseEnduse[Global][Global]

Tatsuya HANAOKAN i l I i f E i l S diNational Institute for Environmental Studies

TopicsTopics

1 M j t f AIM/E d [Gl b l] i1. Major outcomes of AIM/Enduse[Global] in FY2011-FY2012

2. Remaining issues for analyzing technological f ibilit f “2 d t t” d “50%feasibility of “2 degree target” and “50% reduction target”

3. Fluorocarbons emissions analysis and H it i t t i A i iHow it important in Asia regions

Major Outcomes of AIM/Major Outcomes of AIM/EnduseEnduse[Global][Global]in FY2011in FY2011--FY2012FY2012

1. Technology options for meeting a 2.6W/m2 target are evaluated in Asia & World.2. Top five key technologies are CCS, solar, wind, biomass, and biofuel which in total

account for 60% of global GHG emissions reduction in 2050account for 60% of global GHG emissions reduction in 2050.3. If the use of CCS or biomass is limited, cumulative GHG abatement cost until 2050

increases considerably. CCS and biomass have a vital role in curbing mitigation costs

Source) Akashi, O., Hijioka, Y., Masui, T., Hanaoka, T., and Kainuma, M. (2012) GHG emission scenarios in Asia and the world: The Key technologies for significant reduction, Energy Economics 34:s346-s358

Major Outcomes of AIM/Major Outcomes of AIM/EnduseEnduse[Global][Global]in FY2011in FY2011--FY2012FY2012

1. Technological feasibility of achieving a 50% global GHG emission reduction target in 2050 and its transition in 2020 are evaluated.

2 MAC to achieve the target is $150/tCO2 eq in 2020 $600/tCO2 eq in 20502. MAC to achieve the target is $150/tCO2 eq in 2020, $600/tCO2 eq in 2050.3. Additional investment for achieving the target is US$6.0 trillion by 2020 and US$73

trillion by 2050 (corresponding to 0.7% and 1.8% of the world GDP, respectively).

Source) Akashi, O. and Hanaoka, T. (2012) Technological feasibility and costs of achieving a 50 % reduction of global GHG emissions by 2050: mid-and long-term perspective, Sustainability Science, 7:139-156

Remaining IssuesRemaining Issuesfor analyzing feasibility of 2 degree targetfor analyzing feasibility of 2 degree target

1. Strengthening mitigation options in the demand-side Residential sector Residential sector Industry sector

2. Updating constraints in the supply-sidep g pp y Potentials&costs of renewables (biomass) Tracking power plants data based on LPS

3. Reassembling datasets in non-energy & non-CO2 sectors Fluorocarbons sector, including Non-Kyoto Gas (i.e. CFCs, HCFCs) CH4 emissions in waste sector Today’s Topic CH4 emissions in waste sector

4. Co-benefits of reducing global non-CO2 emissions (SO2, NOx, etc)

Today s Topic

5. Discussions on service demands and their transitions

6. Updating AIM/Enduse itself and improving interface

7. Strengthening linkage with CGE[Global]

Environmental Impacts of major gasesEnvironmental Impacts of major gases

Gas ODP GWP(SAR) GWP(AR4) Major sectors

CFC-11 1.0 4000 4750 Closed/Open foam, Aerosols, etc

CFC 12 1 0 8500 10900 R f i t ( t bil i diti i f i ti t ）CFC

CFC-12 1.0 8500 10900 Refrigerant (automobile air-conditioning, refrigeration etc）

CFC-113 0.8 5000 6130 Solvent (Electronic component, dry-cleaning etc）

CFC-114 0.8 9300 10000 Open foam

HCFC 22 0 055 1700 1810 Refrigerant (room air conditioning commercial refrigeration etc）

HCFC

HCFC-22 0.055 1700 1810 Refrigerant (room air-conditioning, commercial refrigeration etc）

HCFC-141b 0.11 630 725 Closed foam, Open foam, Solvent(Electronic component), etc

HCFC-142b 0.065 2000 2310 Open foam

HFC 23 0 11700 14800 By product of HCFC 22 production

HFC

HFC-23 0 11700 14800 By-product of HCFC-22 production

HFC-134a 0 1300 1430 Refrigerant, Closed/Open foam, Aerosols,

HFC-152a 0 140 124 Aerosols, Closed foam

HFC-32 0 650 675 Mixed refrigerantsHFC HFC 32 0 650 675 Mixed refrigerants

HFC-125 0 2800 3500 Mixed refrigerants

HFC-143a 0 3800 4470 Mixed refrigerants

HFC-227ea 0 2900 3220 Aerosols, Fire Extinguishers, g

PFCCF4 0 6500 7390 AL production, Semiconductor Manufacturing, etc

C2F6 0 9200 12200 AL production, Semiconductor Manufacturing, etc

SF6 SF6 0 23900 22800 Semiconductor Manufacturing, Electric Utilities, etc

Note1) GWP values in IPCC SAR (Climate Change 1995) are used for GHGs national inventory reports under UNFCCC, because of the stipulation in the Kyoto Protocol

Note2) GWP values in IPCC AR4 (Climate Change 2007) are the latest and will be used for GHGs national inventory under UNFCCC, after 2015 (i.e. when we report emissions in 2013).

Scale of Fluorocarbon EmissionsScale of Fluorocarbon Emissions

CO2 emissions per person in 2010 in Japan = 9.31 tCO2

+ + + + + =around 8~9

Similar

1 room air-conditioner is hermetically sealed around 800 g of HCFC-22 refrigerant= around 1.4 t-CO2 eq (if it is released to the atmosphere at the time of disposal)

tCO2 eq

a ou d t CO eq ( t s e eased to t e at osp e e at t e t e o d sposa )

CO2 emissions per household in 2010 in Japan = 4.76 tCO2

+ + + = around 2-3

Around half

+1 refrigerator around 150 g of HFC-134a refrigerant = around 0.2 t-CO2 eq

+ + = around 2 3 tCO2 eq

+ 2 room air-conditioner around 800 g of HCFC-22 refrigerant = around 1.4 t-CO2 eq+ 1 car air-conditioner around 500-700 g of HFC-134a = around 1.1 t-CO2 eq(if they are released to the atmosphere at the time of disposal)

Background information:Background information:International Regimes and IssuesInternational Regimes and Issues

Issue1) Insufficient linkage between the Kyoto Protocol and the Montreal ProtocolProtocol Regulation Target gas Greenhouse

Gas (GHG)Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS)( ) ( )

KYOTO Emissions CO2, CH4, H2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 Yes No

MONTREAL ProductionsConsumptions

CFCs, HCFCs, Halons, Carbon tetrachloride, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, Methyl bromide Yes Yes

I 2) Ph t h d l f d ti d ti d th M t l P t l

ODSs are also GHGs, but no international regulation on ODS emissions. They have been emitted without measures, in developed/developing countries

How largeemissions in CO2?Q1

Issue 2) Phase-out schedule of production and consumption under the Montreal Protocol

80

100

out

se y

ear

]

0

20

40

60

Phas

e-o

[% b

elo

w b

as

0

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

CFCs [Article5 ≒ Developing]CFCs [Non-Article5 ≒ Developed]

HCFCs [Article5 ≒ Developing]HCFCs [Non-Article5 ≒ Developed]

CFCs was abolished, but banked CFCs will be released at the time of disposal. HCFCs is not yet regulated in developing countries and produced large amounts.

Phase-out isfar from enough?

Q2

Background information:Background information:International Regimes and IssuesInternational Regimes and Issues

Issue3) Limitations of financial/technological mechanism under the Montreal Protocol Montreal Multilateral Fund only support measures for achieving phase-out schedule of

production and consumption. There is no fund to support measures for emissions reductions. Recovered fluorocarbons (e.g. refrigerants) are treated as chemical waste, thus it will be

forbidden to take out the country because of the Basel Convention.

Developing countries must treat recovered fluorocarbon in own countries. But, there is no fund, no technology and no system for recovery and treatment

How muchfund & cost?

Q3

Issue 4) Limitations of financial/technological mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol

Production is regulated under the Montreal Protocol

HCFC-22 production Dispersive use (for Refrigerants, Foams, etc)

Feedstock use (for fluorine contained resin)By-product HFC-23 CDM

Emission is regulated under the Kyoto Protocol

( )By-product HFC-23GWP=14800

CDMproject

There is no regulation for HCFC-22 feedstock production

More HCFC-22 feedstock is produced, more by-product HFC-23 is emitted. CDM project of HFC-23 destroy is hardly accepted due to various reasons.

How largeHFC23 emission?

Q4

Background information:Background information:Uncertainty of Inventory and GWPUncertainty of Inventory and GWP

Issue5) Lack of accuracy and lack of detailed data in fluorocarbon inventory Lack of accuracy of data (e.g. incomplete data and outlier in UNEP database) Inconsistency of units between different database (e g in ODP ton metric ton and CO2 ton) Inconsistency of units between different database (e.g. in ODP ton, metric ton, and CO2 ton) Lack of detailed data by gas and by category (e.g. aggregated all gases in UNEP database) Lack of data of major countries (e.g. China, India, Russia in AFEAS database) Suspected data (e.g. inconsistency b/w emission factor and emissions in UNFCCC database)

Issue6) Large effects caused by difference of Global Warming Potentials

It is necessary to create reliable global inventory from scratch. Detailed data by gas & category are necessary to convert inconsistent units.

How accurateand detail?

Q5

35%

40%9

10d l )q) 35%

40%9

10

d l )q)

Issue6) Large effects caused by difference of Global Warming Potentials

CFCs

Based on GWP values in IPCC1995（used for UNFCCC national report currently）

Based on GWP values in IPCC2007（will use for UNFCCC national report after 2015）

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

456789

o Energy‐re

late

ns (%

 199

0 leve

gas p

rodu

ction 

valent (G

t‐CO2e

q

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

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 199

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gas p

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ction 

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t‐CO2e

q CFCsHCFCsHFCs

Compared to

around1.5GtCO2eq

0%

5%

10%

15%

01234

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10

Compared t

CO2 em

issio

Glob

al Fg

in CO2 eq

uiv

0%

5%

10%

15%

01234

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10

Compared t

CO2 em

issio

Glob

al Fg

in CO2 eq

uiv Compared to

CO2 emissions level in 1990

Source) AFEAS (2011)

193

194

195

196

197

198

199

200

201

193

194

195

196

197

198

199

200

201

Note) AFEAS database is used for representing global fluorocarbon production, however the database is missing some major developing countries (e.g. China, India, Russia). Thus, this figure shows underestimated values. (e.g. CFCs production in 2004 represents 16 % of global production reported in UNEP).

) ( )

Target Sectors and GasesTarget Sectors and Gases

Code Category GHG Mitigation option

BYP By-production HFC Thermal oxidationBYP y p oduct oemission HFC Thermal oxidation

REF Refrigerants CFC, HCFC, HFC, PFC Alternative refrigerants (carbon dioxide, hydrocarbons, NH3, etc), Leakage reduction, Recovery, Decomposition Alternative aerosol (hydrocarbon aerosol propellants, not-in-

ARS Aerosols CFC, HCFC, HFC( y p p ,

kind alternatives), 50% reduction (for medical applications, general aerosol propellants)

FOM Foams CFC, HCFC, HFC, PFC Recovery, Decomposition, Alternative foams (water-blown CO2 systems, liquid CO2 foam blowing, hydrocarbon foam blowing)

SLV Solvents CFC, HCFC, HFC, PFC Alternative solvents (NIK aqueous, NIK semi-aqueous), Retrofit options, 50% reduction

FEX Fire Extinguishers HFC, PFC Inert gas systems, Water mist, Leakage reduction & recovery

SEM Semiconductor Manufacture HFC, PFC, SF6

Cleaning facility (NF3 in situ clean, NF3 remote clean), Recapture/destroy, Plasma abatement, Catalytic destruction, Thermal oxidation

ALM Aluminium PFCs SF R t fit（PFPB SWPB CWPB VSS HSS）ALM Production PFCs, SF6 Retrofit（PFPB,SWPB,CWPB,VSS,HSS）

MGS Magnesium Foundries SF6

SO2 replacement, Recovery and recycling, Alternative fluorinated compounds

ElectricalELU Electrical Equipment SF6 Leak detection, Device recovery & recycling

Overview of Overview of Global Fluorocarbon ModelingGlobal Fluorocarbon Modeling

CFC-11 REF

BYP(feedstock)

Hermetic use

HFC-23

ProductionCFC-11

ConsumptionBy-product

emissionBYP(dispersive)

CFC 11CFC-12CFC-113CFC-114CFC-115

HCFC 22

CFCs

REFREFDOMREFCOMREFTRTREFINDREFSAC

CFCsHCFCsHFCs

CFC 11CFC-12CFC-113CFC-114CFC-115

HCFC 22

Leakage emissionper annume

HCFC-22HCFC-141bHCFC-142bHCFC-123HCFC-124HCFC-225

HCFCs FOM

ELU

REFSACREFMACREFUSM

HFCsPFCsSF6

HCFC-22HCFC-141bHCFC-142bHCFC-123HCFC-124HCFC-225Gl b l

Emission at the time of

disposalHCFC 225

HFC-134aHFC-32HFC-125HFC-143a

Release use

Dispersive use

HCFC 225

HFC-134aHFC-32HFC-125HFC-143a

SLV

ARS

GlobalMarket

CFCsHCFCsHFCs

Emission at the time of consumption

HFC-152aHFC-23HFC-227eaHFC-236faHFC-245caHFC 365mfc

HFCsHFC-152aHFC-23HFC-227eaHFC-236faHFC-245caHFC 365mfc

FEX

SEM

Metal production

PFCsSF6

Emission at the time of HFC-365mfc

HFC-43-10mee

CF4C2F6C3F8

PFCs

HFC-365mfcHFC-43-10mee

CF4C2F6C3F8

Other non-specified

ALM

MGS

PFCsSF6

production

CFCsHCFCs

Emission at the time of consumptionC3F8

C4F10

SF6SF6

C3F8C4F10

SF6

35 regions

ONS

35 regions

HCFCsHFCsPFCsSF6

consumption

The latest Inventory & The latest Inventory & Baseline Emissions ScenariosBaseline Emissions Scenarios

1. Creation of the latest global inventory by gas, by category and by country UNEP Ozone Secretariat database AFEAS d t b AFEAS database UNFCCC National Inventory reports in all Annex I countries Various national statistics/report (Japan, EU, China, Russia, Indonesia, etc) Jo rnal Papers (McC lloch 1998 2003 2006 2007 Miller 2010 etc) Journal Papers (McCulloch 1998, 2003, 2006, 2007, Miller 2010, etc)

2. Baseline consumption scenario CFCs HCFCs : Following phase out schedule under the Montreal Protocol CFCs, HCFCs : Following phase-out schedule under the Montreal Protocol HFCs : Alternatives of CFCs and HCFCs considering phase-out

(extrapolating data by sector, based on GDP&POP growth) PFCs SF6 : BaU (extrapolating based on GDP & POP growth) PFCs, SF6 : BaU (extrapolating based on GDP & POP growth)

3. Baseline emission functions Emissions functions are determined by considering the time delays Emissions functions are determined by considering the time delays

between consumption and emissions depending on different service types in each category (e.g. refrigerants, aerosols, foams, solvents, others)

Leakage of banked refrigerants during the use of appliances is consideredg g g pp HFC-23 emission ratio (by-product of HCFC-22 production) is considered

both in dispersive use and feedstock use.

Baseline Fluorocarbon EmissionsBaseline Fluorocarbon EmissionsHFCs & PFCs & SF6 HFCs & PFCs & SF6 + CFCs & + CFCs & HCFCsHCFCs

1800 

2000 

2200 

2 eq

)  World

800

900 

1000 

2 eq

)  Asia

800

900 

1000 

2 eq

)  Annex I

1200

1400 

1600 

ions (M

tCO2

CFC600 

700 

800 

ions (M

tCO2

CFC600 

700 

800 

ions (M

tCO2

CFC

600

800 

1000 

1200 

selin

e Em

iss

HCFC

SF6

PFC300 

400 

500 

selin

e Em

iss

HCFC

SF6

PFC300 

400 

500 

selin

e Em

iss

HCFC

SF6

PFC

200 

400 

600 

Bas

HFC

100 

200 Bas

HFC

100 

200 Bas

HFC

0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Note) This is still tentative result under the updating process of global fluorocarbon inventory

0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Emissions of CFCs & HCFCs are larger than those of fluorinated gases under the the Kyoto GHGs in the mid-term (up to 2030), even if the world regions follow the phase-out schedule of production/consumption under the Montreal Protocol

) p g p g y

phase-out schedule of production/consumption under the Montreal Protocol. It is important to consider early mitigation actions in Asia in the next 10 -20 years

It should be focused on when discussing the mid-term targets in the international regimes.

Thank YouThank You