ship emissions impacts - htap€¦ · this inventory is being used to evaluate impacts to air ......

6/10/2008

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Ship Emissions ImpactsJames J. Corbett, University of Delaware

Atmospheric Chemistry, Climate, and Transboundary Air Pollution:A Joint TF HTAP / NAS / AC&C Workshop

The Liaison Hotel, 415 New Jersey Ave NW, Washington DC, 9-13 June 2008

Purpose: Review our current understanding

of ship emissions transboundary impacts

ContainershipTanker

Bulk CarrierGeneral CargoRefrigerated CargoRo-Ro

Goal: Explore ship emissions impacts

within goods movement context

OverviewFreight Transport

Passenger

Hypothesis: Ship emissions represent one mode

of the fast-growing global freight sector; contribute to large regional and global transboundary impacts.

Impacts overview

Air Quality and Health

Radiative Forcing

Discussion

(c) 2008, Corbett and Winebrake

Synthesis: Shipping offers mode-rebalancing

advantages for CO2; enabled by reduction of pollution health risks.

Either way, this is a systems problem.

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Plume Dilution & Transformation

Engine EmissionsCO2, NOx, CO, HC, SOx, Particles & Soot

Impact Chain of Ship Emissions

Plume Dilution & TransformationChemical and microphysical processes in plumes

Regional & Global Impact on Chemistry

Regional Impact on Air Quality

Radiative Forcing

Impact on Climate and Human Health

Freight Overview

S U S T A I N A B L E G O O D S M O V E M E N T I S A C R I T I C A L C O M P O N E N T T O

A H E A L T H Y E C O N O M Y , A S A F E E N V I R O N M E N T , A N D

A S E C U R E N A T I O N

2007 © J. Winebrake (RIT) & J. Corbett (UD)

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Freight Overview

There are only two types of transportation: Moving people and Moving freight

We are visualizing current and alternative strategies to make goods movement more sustainable.

Passenger energy and freight energy splits

o US : 75% to 25 %

o Global : closer to 50/50

Modal share of work differs.

10,000

40,000

100,000 100,000

Freight Overview

• Freight movement critical to our national economy and security

Global and US Cargo Flows (Gt-km) by Mode(2005)

2,200

500

10

2,200

330

21

41 38

10,000 7,000

1,900

900

100 100

10

100

1,000

10,000

Car

go V

olum

e (G

tkm

)C

arbo

n di

oxid

e (C

O2

in T

g-y-

1 )

10

100

1,000

10,000

Car

go V

olum

e (G

tkm

)

economy and security

• Freight transport is the fastest growing energy sector

• Freight is a major contributor to environmental problems

• Freight overlaps many

1 Road Shipping Aviation Rail

U.S. Freight (Gtkm) U.S. Freight CO2 (Tg) Global Freight (Gtkm) Global Freight CO2 (Tg)

1 Road Shipping Aviation Rail

U.S. Freight (Gtkm) EU25 Freight World Freight Gtkm

g p yareas important to our country’ : energy use, environmental quality, economic growth, congestion mitigation, and national security


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Eyring et al., ATTICA Shipping Assessment, Atm. Environ, subm., 2008

Questions that come to mind

What does it mean to observe less “net ozone destruction” in the oceans between 1985 and 2002?destruction in the oceans between 1985 and 2002?

Could it mean that there was a net increase in local source?

What is background? What is clean marine?If the trends in shipping were included, would multi-factor growth in trade and conversion to larger HTHP marine diesels explain some of the trends?explain some of the trends?

Can we characterize transboundary pollution without understanding emissions flux from ocean-based of

transportation of international “transboundary” cargoes?

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Shipping Impacts Overview

S H I P P I N G A C T I V I T Y I M P A C T SA I R Q U A L I T Y A N D C L I M A T E - F O R C I N G

C O A S T A L E C O S Y S T E M SH U M A N H E A L T H


Shipping environmental impacts overview

Episodic environmental events Routine environmental events

Vessel-basedOil spills Ocean dumping Sewage discharges Oily wastewater Vessel collisions Ship-strikes with marine life

Engine air emissions Invasive species introductions (ballast water/hull fouling) Hull coating toxics releases Underwater noise

Port-based

Dredging Stormwater runoff Port expansion Ship construction, breaking

Vessel wake erosionCargo-handling air emissions

Security, safety, human factor dimensions fit similar contextsCould expand this framework to land-side freight systems

(c) 2008, Corbett and Winebrake

6/10/2008

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ATTICA Shipping Assessment (Eyring et al., Atm. Environ., 2008)

10,000ea

r

Fuel and CO21.000

10.000

Year

100

1,000

Tg

per

Ye

0.001

0.010

0.100

Tg

per

Traditional Air Pollutants, Black Carbon and HFCs

* Registered fleet includes passenger vessels, fishing vessels plus cargo ships, but not military vessels.** Registered fleet engine HC does not include cargo evaporative HC.*** Total NMHC includes tanker loading (see Table3 of Eyring et al 2005a).

Spatial Proxies of Global Ship Traffic in 2000/2001

IMPACT STUDIES:Lawrence & Crutzen, 1999Eyring et al., 2007Lauer et al., 2007C b tt t l 2007Corbett et al., 2007

Endresen et al., 2003Lauer et al., 2007

Capaldo et al., 1999Kasibhatla et al., 2000 Davis et al., 2001Dalsoren et al., 2007

Eyring et al., ATTICA Shipping Assessment, Atm. Environ, subm., 2008

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Arctic Circle Arctic Circle

ICOADS AMVER

A choice of global proxy invent

Equator

Tropic of Capricorn

Antarctic Circle

Equator

Tropic of Capricorn

Antarctic Circle

Arctic Circle

Average ICOADS and AMVER

Equator

Tropic of Capricorn

Antarctic Circle

Wang, C., J.J. Corbett, and J. Firestone, Improving Spatial Representation of Global Ship Emissions Inventories, Environmental Science & Technology, 42(1), p. 193-199, 2008.

STEEM STEEM advanced spatial modeling of shipping to

id th t l t provide the most complete North American emission inventories.

This inventory is being used to evaluate impacts to air quality and human health.

Ship Traffic Energy and Environmental Model (STEEM)

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Impacts to Air Quality


2400

2500

3000

ause

s) 2500

3000

Downward trend expected in statewidePM mortality from goods movement

Premature mortality from goods movement California sees significant and increasing ship impacts

– without considering sulfate PM yet

2000

1700

1000

1500

2000

rem

atur

e M

orta

lity

(all

ca

1000

1500

2000

Shipping PM effectsmore than double -

nearly equal trucks in 2020

0

500

2005 2010 2020

Pr

0

500

Cargo Handling Equipment SoCAB Ports (modeled) Transport Refrigeration UnitsOcean-Going Ships Commercial Harbor Craft Rail (Locomotives)Truck Statewide Total - TREND Oceangoing Ships TREND

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Mortality from Ship Emissions: A Global Assessment

James J. Corbett, James J. Winebrake, Erin H. Green, Prasad Kasibhatla, Veronika Eyring, and Axel Lauer

November 2007

OVERVIEW OF STUDY

PM2.5 Concentrations are inventory and model dependent

AMVER and ECHAM 5: BC, POM, SO4 ICOADS and ECHAM 5: BC, POM, SO4

ICOADS and ECHAM 5: Total PM2.5ICOADS and GEOS-Chem: BC, POM, SO4

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Increased risk is broadly distributedShip emissions increase mortality risk for significant populations across the globe

Most coastal regions and many inland regions face a mortality risk greater than 10 in a million (1:100,000)

Key regions face greater mortality risk from ship emissions

Current work looking at benefits of reduction

Corbett, J.J., and J.J. Winebrake, et al, Mitigating Health Impacts of Ship Pollution through Low Sulfur Fuel Options: Initial Comparison of Scenarios, Submitted by Friends of the Earth International (FOEI) to IMO MEPC Session 57, 2008.

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Air Quality SummaryReducing ship emissions could have global health b fit b d E

Ships contribute to health impacts along major trade lanesbenefits beyond Europe and North America.

Growth in uncontrolled emissions increases risk.

Big Question: How do we choose policy standards?

Do something good:Phased control strategyPhased control strategy

Hold the line: Reductions offset growth

Mitigate impacts: Reduce to some prior year

Brown shipping lanes where particulate (PM) emissions occur; blue regions where premature mortality occurs due to ship PM

Impacts to Climate Forcing


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Change in Tropospheric Ozone Columns due to Shipping2000-2000without ships in DU

Change in ozone burden in Tg

2030-2030Schiffe,2000 in DU

Global mean increase of tropospheric ozone burden between 2000 and 2030 due to ship emissions (IPCC A2 Scenario + 'Constant Growth Scenario' with 2.2% Annual Increase Rate' for ships) is 3%

3.1 Tg(N) 6.0 Tg(N)

Eyring et al., ACP, 2007

2030-2030without ships in DU

Shipping Effects on Climate

Warming effects• CO2

• O from NO

Cooling effects• Sulphate aerosol• CH reduction from NOO3 from NOx

• BC (soot)CH4 reduction from NOx

• Changes of microphysical and optical properties of clouds from aerosols and their precursors

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-100

-50

0

50

Ship RF

A B C -0.4 mW/m2A B C

Radiative forcing due to shipping in 2000

-550

-500

-450

-400

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

RF

[mW

/m2 ]

Endresen et al., 2003

Eyring et al., 2007

Capaldo et al., 1999

this study (inventory A/B/C)

Schreier et al., 2007

-600

-550

CO2 O3 CH4 Direct Indirect Ship Tracks

from NOx

Level of scientific understanding

Good Fair Fair Fair Poor Poor

Schreier et al., 2007

Lauer et al., ACP, 2007

Radiative Forcing from ShipsRF by nature is usually defined as a global meanShipping forcings operate on different spatial scales

CO globalMean % low cloud amount

CO2 – globalCH4 - globalO3 – regional to hemisphericBlack carbon – local to regionalSulphate – local to regionalCloudiness – local to regional

R i l l b l/h i h i

(1983 – 2004), ISCCP satellite data (Lauer et al., 2007)

Regional vs global/hemispheric forcings

CO2 exerts a relatively homogeneous forcing across the hemispheresSO4 exerts a strong regional (negative)forcingA global mean forcing (e.g. CO2) does not cancel regional forcings in terms of climate effect

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Implications


Recall that one-year forcing is not insightful for

600,000,000

700,000,000

glong-term cumulative effects

Annual radiativeforcing balance is not the big-picture.

Shipping activity CO2 100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

Gross To

ns in Fleet World Total

OECD Nations

OECD with Second Flag

Liberia

Panama

Other Selected Nations

Tren

ds in Fleet World Total

OECD Nations

OECD with Second Flag

Liberia

Panama

Other Selected Nations

Shipping activity CO2 and long-lived GHGs are cumulative, whereas aerosol effects are short-term.

0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20201900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

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Summary of IPCC forecast trends

600

PIPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios Summary

(Asian Pacific Integrated Model or AIM)

300

400

500

Pow

er; T

rilli

on U

S$ fo

r GN

P/G

DP

A1 AIM GNP/GDP

A1 AIM Oil Use

A2 AIM GNP/GDP

A2 AIM Oil Use

B2 AIM GNP/GDP

B2 AIM Oil U

Petroleum use represents all sectors (dominated by passenger vehicles).

Not a good trend line for freight cargo transportation sector separately

290

100

200

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

ExoJ

oule

s (E

J) fo

r P B2 AIM Oil Use

B1 AIM GNP/GDP

B1 AIM Oil Use

Cargo growth should follow GNP if consumption is trade dominated

100

1,000

10,000

d TgCO

2/yr

Annual Freight Demand and CO2 Emissions by Mode, 2005

1

10

100

Truck Rail Ship (Domestic) Air

Gtkm/yr and

Gtkm/yr TgCO2/yr

Gtkm/yr TgCO2/yr Btu/tkm gCO2/tkmTruck 2290 350 2080 150Rail 3075 40 180 13Ship (Domestic) 1050 20 240 19Air 28 32 16000 1140

2008 © J.J. Winebrake & J.J. CorbettData derived from BTS, Table 1‐46b: http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/.

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SIFTR: Four Key Research Areas

• Energy and

Sustainable Intermodal Freight Transportation Research (SIFTR) improves freight decisions through collaborative, innovative, data-driven transformative research to make the future of freight more

sustainable.

The SIFTR Vision

Environmental Analysis.

• Economic, Congestion, and Modal Analysis.

• Safety, Security, and Infrastructure Resiliency

• Data Acquisition, S d A

Energy and Environmental

Analysis

Economics, Congestion, and Modal Analysis

SIFTRStorage, and Access.

Safety, Security, & Infrastructure

Resiliency

Data Acquisition, Storage, and

Access


Discussion Welcome

C O N T A C T :J A M E S J . C O R B E T T , P . E .U N I V . O F D E L A W A R EJ C O R B E T T @ U D E L . E D UT E L : 3 0 2 - 8 3 1 - 0 7 6 8

ship emissions impacts - htap€¦ · this inventory is being used to evaluate impacts to air ......

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