safety risk management tools eva airs perspective & implementation presented by danny ho safety...
TRANSCRIPT
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Safety Risk Management Tools EVA Air’s Perspective & Implementation
Presented byDanny Ho
Safety & Security Div.EVA Air Corporation
Aug 30, 2013
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Philosophy on Safety Risk Management
Predictive thinking, proactive implementation and reactive response.
Comprehensive, effective, feasible and sustainable.
Effective safety management requires the ability to have the right system to collect and analyze the right information at the right time.
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Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation-Traditional Practice
Real Time Monitoring (ACMS/AHM)+
Post Flight Analysis (FDM/FOQA)
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Real Time Monitoring: ACMS & AHM
MCD FSD
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Post Flight Analysis
A/C Performance Analysis
Daily Trend Analysis
30
40
50
70
80
90
DFDR
Flight Data Animation (QAR)
Hazard Identification &
Risk Management
FDM/ Aerobytes
WGBBS
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Flight Data
FDM DailyReport
AlertEvent
DetectEvent
Event ReviewEvent Review Meeting
Statistics/Data base
FDM/FOQA
Training Improvement & Procedure Modification
Quarterly ReportAnnual Report
Trend Analysis Report
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Before the flight!
Beside the real time monitoring & post flight analysis,what miss on Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation ?
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Comprehensive Safety Risk Assessment of the Flight Operation
During the flightBefore the flight After the flight
FOQA/FDMACMS/AHMFORAS
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FORASFlight Operations Risk Assessment System
• FORAS is a system which designed to capture risk attributes on the areas of crew, aircraft functionality and sector threats, and allow risk mitigation efforts could be deployed before the flight.
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Flight Operation Risk• Newly check out Captain and F/O flying together• Fatigued crew with MRT• Non precision approach or ILS out of service• Strong cross wind• Low visibility with rain or snow• Thrust Reverser INOP• RWY is not grooved with percipitation• The complexity of approach procedure & runway configuration• Operating crew never operating into this airport before
…
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Sponsored by :NASA
Prototype Developedby : Dr. Michael Hadjimichel
FORAS DevelopmentEVA AIR & Dr. Michael Hadjimichel
FORAS concept generated by ICARUS Committee Think Tank of FSF
Project Background
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System Introduction• FORAS is a methodology for generating a risk model, which produces
a relative, quantitative measurement of a specific risk exposure in flight operations.– Gather the weather information, crew experience, navigation aids, and
aircraft’s status etc.
• A decision support tool to measure and reduce risk exposure.– A decision aids for risk awareness, not a GO or NO GO decision tool.
• Proactive, predictive approach to aviation safety.– Analyze operational risks and take the actions of relevant risk mitigation
to ensure a safe operation.
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CRTS
FIS
SMIS
NOTAM
WeatherSystem
2. System Architecture
CRTS: Crew Rostering and Tracking SystemFIS: Flight Information SystemSMIS: Safety Management Information System
EVADatabase
EVADatabase
FORAS Fuzzyinference engine
FORAS CPIengine
FORAS ModelsFORAS Models
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FORAS• Flight Operations Risk Assessment System
DRV : Departure Risk Value
ALRV : Approach & Landing Risk ValueDRV & ALRV will be calculated automatically 2.5 hrs before the flight.
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Model structure
Rule Tables (Dep133;Arr166)
Raw Data (D-Value: Dep116;Arr141)
Terminal value (T-value:Dep117;Arr146)
• Crew Variable (Dep77;Arr85)
• Sector Variable (Dep6;Arr11)
• Aircraft Variable (Dep1;Arr1)
DRV / ALRV
T value definitionCode DescriptionP001_1 PILOT1 RANKP002_1 PILOT1_GRADEP003_1 PILOT1_NATIONALITYP004_1 PILOT1_LASTTIME_AT_AIRPORTP005_1 PILOT1_SECTORS_AT_RANKP005_2 PILOT2_SECTORS_AT_RANKP006_1 PILOT1_LIFE_TIME_HOURS
Code DescriptionTA01 Approach and Landing-related MEL ItemsTC01 Experience pairingTC02 Rank compositionTC03 English proficiencyTC04 Multi-nationalitiesTC05_C Airport recencyTC06_C Special airport/runwayTC07_C Numbers of previous visits TC08_C EVA type hoursTC09_C Flying recency as PF
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Crew Functionality
IntercrewCommunication
Pilot Experience Pilot Fatigue
TransientFatigue
CumulativeFatigue
A/C FlyingExperience
AirportFamiliarity
Airportrecency
Specialairport/runway
Numbers of previous visits
ExperiencePairing
RankComposition
Comm.Proficiency
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A/C FlyingExperience
TotalHours Sectors
Flyingrecency
as PF
EVA typehours
Pre-EVAhours EVA hours
Typelanding
Landingat rank
EVAlanding
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TransientFatigue
Pre-workload Pre-flight Rest In-flight fatigue
In-flightRest
Previous sectorsflown
on this duty period
Duty hourssince beginning
Pre-flightcircadian night
Pre-flightrest hours
Extra crewavailability
Crew bunkavailability
Duty hoursof
this flight
In-flightrest hours
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Cumulative Fatigue
Work Amount Rest
Pre-7 daysworkload
Previous FlyingSchedulestability Rest recency Rest amount
Pre-30 daysworkload
Pre-90 daysworkload
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AircraftFunctionality
DRV & ALRV-related MEL
Fleet ItemsA330 : 64B747 : 64B777 : 104MD11 : 79
B777-300ER
DEP22-11-09B Takeoff/Go-Around (TO/GA) Switches
32-42-01A Normal Antiskid Valve
32-30-01 Landing Gear Actuation System
ARR
22-11-02B Autopilot Backdrive Actuator System
22-11-06B Mode Control Panel Switches-A/P Engage Switches
22-31-01 Autothrottle System31-51-05A WES Autopilot Disconnect Warning Function
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SectorThreat
Airport Weather
WeatherComplexity
VisualCondition
VisibilityMargin
CeilingMargin
AmbientLight
CrosswindComponents
PrecipitationConvectiveWx Issues
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Airport
ATCFunctionality
ATCEnglish proficiency
ApproachComplexity Congestion
ATCcontrol quality
Runwaycomplexity
Airportbusy hour
A/P Familiarity
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ApproachComplexity
Specialairport/runway
FlyingComplexity
RunwayComplexity
Precisionapproach
Airportterrain/obstacle
Approachgo-around
rate
Sunlighteffective issues
Groovedrunway
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Conclusion
• The core elements of Safety Management System is hazard identification & risk management. FORAS is playing a vital & predictive role on Safety Risk Management.
Why we need FORAS?
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FORAS Promotion Program• Promote FORAS via a non commercial avenue
• Airlines who are interesting to acquire FORAS shall donate certain amount of fund into FORAS Fund according to its fleet size.
• Set up a FORAS Fund and manage it via a committee of trustees
• The Fund will be utilized to set up FORAS Scholarship, FORAS Award and the future development of FORAS, and other aviation risk management initiatives.
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FORAS Promotion Program will be available on Q4 2013.
InternetInternet
Airline A
Airline B
Airline C
Frontend Server
Backend Workstation
XML
Frontend Server
Frontend Server
DBDB
InferenceModelsInferenceModels
InferenceEngineInferenceEngine
DBDB
DBDB
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Thank you!Q&A