sahara forest project karratha feasibility study report up ... · sahara forest project karratha...
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Sahara Forest Project Karratha Feasibility StudyReport up-date
Bill Watts
Revegetation and creation of green jobs through profitableproduction of food, freshwater, biofuels and electricity
What SFP is about?
• Meeting the trilemma of:• Energy• Water • Food
• Stress on land use• Reversing desertification• Providing employment to marginal communities.
How?
• Making use of marginalised land for enclosed intensive profitable agriculture
• Making use of seawater or brackish water• Making use of solar power to drive systems• Replanting external areas with suitable crop.• Make use of industrial synergies
Why Karratha?
• Plenty of land• Best solar resource in Australia -
particularly in winter• Near seawater• Potential for synergies with other
industry
WINTER SOLAR
Benefits for Karratha?
• A new range of development opportunities
• Diversification from Extractive industries
• Employment opportunities and ladder for less skilled workforce into a Horticultural industry.
However….• Is there a market for the produce ?• Long way from the rest of the Australia • Cyclone risk• High temperatures• Would you get the labour ?
Is there a business case for an SFP development??
Feasibility study to broadly examine
• Site selection• Technical aspects• Market size and location• The business case• Explore synergies
Working Hypothesis: Compare 2 ha and 20 ha greenhouse.
2 ha:• At the lower limit of commercial
viability• Nice size to start up and train workforce
[c.10 to 20]• Less capex but higher $/m2 cost
20 ha:• At the upper end of manageable
operation [ 100 to 200 staff ]• Lower $/m2
Greenhouse internal environment
• Swamp cooler with Brine• Air distributed at low level
below plants.• Extract at high level at the
end of the runs
Workforce:
• Motivation and efficiency is crucial
• Over 50% of the cost of production
• Great opportunity for less skilled workforce
• Potential for community ownership
BENEFITS OF PROTECTIVE CROPPING
• Better quality of produce. • Pesticide free with biological pest
control• Year round production• Protection from climatic events• Highly efficient water use
0.1
0.5
0.8
0.6
1.7
2017
1.2
1.1
0.0
0.6
2023
1.0
0.0
0.5
0.9
1.7
0.0
2018
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.6
2022
0.9
2021
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.1
2.0
0.6
1.0
1.9
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.1
2.1
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.6
0.7
1.2
2.3
0.0 0.8
2.4
2024
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.8
0.4
2.5
2025
Lettuce
Chillies
2020
Eggplant
2019
Capsicum
Cucumber
Tomatoes
1.3
0.13.5
3.73.9
4.1
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.1
5.4
5.36% p.a.
Size of local market, m AUD
BUSINESS CASE
The Pilbara market for selected vegetables is however expected to grow at ~8% (including inflation) per year until 2025
Source: SFP Analysis
TOMATOES
EGG PLANTS
LETTUCE
CUCUMBERS
CHILLIES
CAPSICUMS
Greenhouse output of tomatoes vs Market size
Greenhouse size
Karratha[excluding non
residents]
The Pilbara[excluding non
residents]
WesternAustralia SE Asia
2 ha500% of market
200% of market
5% of market Very small
20 ha5000% of
market2000% of
market50% of market
Still Very small
Greenhouse
Perth HUB
Local Market
Mining Camp
Other marketsNiche Off-
taker
Low cost Back Haul
The Pilbara
The South
Logistics
Frequent existing supply contracts
Objectives
Greenhouse size Proposed Market
2 haLocal produce and mining camps; Supplying Niche off-takers and
trialling the wider market. Perhaps multi-crop
20 ha Need to secure major off-takers in Australia and abroad
Business case of stand alone greenhouse
Greenhouse size
Capex for infrastructure[Not inculded in business case]
Capex for greenhouse
and PV array Business case
2 ha $7.8 million $16.4millionIRR of around 8%. Sensitive to CAPEX,
production costs and product price
20 ha $7.8 million $143 millionIRR of around 12%. Sensitive to CAPEX,
production costs and product price. Substantial off-take required.
What next
• Target development of 2 ha scheme• Value engineer CAPEX• Develop strategy of getting Traditional Owner buy-in• Develop off take agreements• Grant funding• Other funding
2 ha facility will show the potential of the site and high light levels, and the quality of the produce to make a case for a larger scheme.
Project ObjectivesTo engage with Traditional Owners to unlock commercial benefits of Bush Plants for their benefit.
SFP to provide• Greenhouse space to test growth
of native species with high performance horticulture practice.
• Space for external plant cultivation.• Potential to set up research facility• Potential to research best species
to grow between solar panels
Industrial Synergies
Requirement for renewable power to off site hydrogen production facility
• Existing 1 MW PV array• Existing infrastructure of 33 kV network
and Horizon connection• Requirement for more solar power
• Existing seawater connections and discharge
• Existing RO desalination plant• Requirement for solar power
• New industrial facility making magnesium from brine
• Requirement for large amount of power• Waste brine suitable for SFP cooling
• Produce large quantities of CO2• Requirement for solar power in Barrup
plant for H2 production
• 20,000 ha of greenhouse in Almeria produces
• €2 billion horticultural export.
• Google map of Karratha at the same scale as the Almeria, Spain.
Potential for large scale horticulture to serve SE asia: Comparason with Almeria in Spain