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Emerging MarketsChapter
9
Stages of Economic Development
1. The Traditional Society
2. The Pre Conditions for Take-off
3. The Take-Off
4. The Drive to Maturity
5. The Age of High Mass Consumption
SOURCES: Walt W. Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth 2d ed. (London: Cambridge University Press, 1971), p.10.Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
United Nations EconomicDevelopment System
More-Developed Countries (MDC)More-Developed Countries (MDC)
Less-Developed Countries (LDC)Less-Developed Countries (LDC)
Least-Developed Countries (LLDC)Least-Developed Countries (LLDC)
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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Newly Industrialized CountriesGrowth Factors
Political Stability
Economic and Legal Reforms
Entrepreneurship
Central Planning
Outward Orientation
Factors of Production
Industries Targeted for Growth
Financial Incentives
Privatized State-Owned Enterprises
Large, Accessible Markets
Low Tariffs
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Infrastructure of Selected Countries
United States 6,243.2 214.3 49,259 13,696
Brazil 1,670.1 22.1 2,540 1,925
Japan 1,115.6 26.5 21,392 8,182
Colombia 12.6 3.3 4,154 1,147
Germany 618.2 43.9 3,174 6,680
Kenya 8.3 2.7 110 105
Mexico 242.3 26.5 3,773 1,898
Spain 318.0 15.3 3,360 4,728
India 1,100.0 62.4 2,567 485
South Africa 55.4 21.4 1,853 5,020
China 170.0 58.3 3,591 946
Highways* Railways Trucks Electricity(paved km) (km) and Buses Production
Country (000) (000) in Use (000) (kwh per head)
*Includes unpaved and paved.SOURCES: For additional information, see International Marketing Data and Statistics, 19997 (London: Euromonitor Pulications, 1997); and “Indicators of Market Size for 115 countries, “
Country Monitor, December 25, 2000.Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Common Traits of Big Emerging Markets
Are physically large.
Have significant populations.
Represent considerable markets for a wide range of products.
Have strong rates of growth or the potential for significant growth.
Have undertaken significant programs of economic reform.
Are of major political importance within their regions.
Are "Regional Economic Drivers".
Will engender further expansion in neighboring markets as they grow.
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Big Emerging Markets
AsiaASEAN^ 434.8 $666.0 $ 15,317 $ 1,294.8CEA (Chinese Economic Area)‡ 1,205.0 1,374.6 1,141 1,109.0India 10,028.0 437.2 458 63.3South Korea 43.7 476.0 10,063 280.5
Latin AmericaMexico 97.4 486.1 4,992 328.4Argentina 35.7 283.1 7,740 53.6Brazil 158.6 551.8 3,305 108.6
AfricaSouth Africa 41.4 147.8 3,570 59.4
EuropePoland 38.7 135.3 3,500 26.4Turkey 58.6 189.2 3,027 63.4
Possible AdditionsColombia 41.6 91.5 2,201 24.9Venezuela 23.7 102.1 4,307 40.9
Population GDP GDP Trade*(millions) ($ billions) (per capita) ($ billions)
* Imports and exports.^ASEAN includes Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.‡CEA consists of the provinces of Southern China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
SOURCES: For additional information, see “indicators of Market Size for 115 countries, ” Country Monitor. December 25, 2000. “Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook, 1999. International Monetary Fund, 2000, and visit www.stat-usa.gov/bems/bemschi/bemschi.html/.Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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The Americas
CUBA
CANADA
UNITED STATES
MEXICO
Alaska(United States)
Hawaii(United States)
BRAZIL
BOLIVIA
PARAGUAY
URUGUAY
AR
GE
NTI
NA
PERUECUADOR
VENEZUELA
Montreal
PACIFIC OCEAN
GUYANA SURINAME FRENCH GUIANA
GUATEMALA
ST. SALVADOR
COSTA RICA
PANAMA
GREENLAND (DENMARK)
CH
ILE
Toronto
DetroitChicago
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Dallas
COLOMBIA
HONDURAS
NICARAGUA
Miami
JAMAICA
HAITI
Buenos Aires
Belo Horizonte
Rio de Janeiro
Sao Paulo
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Economic and Social Data for Selected Countries
United States $ 741,340 18.1% $221,800 5.4% 5.1 560,300 99.5%$45,579
Argentina 16,952 38.8% 2,332 5.3% 5.3 96,000 93.9%2,336
Brazil 81,934 31.2% 12,799 4.9% 3.5 169,488 77.8%1,559
Colombia 9,264 35.2% 1,597 6.1% 1.5 29,353 85.2% 410
Mexico 57,900 33.7% 12,066 7.0% 0.7 130,000 87.6 %4,355
Venezuela 15,501 43.2% 3,679 10.2% 2.6 *28,400 84.7%36.5
Consumer Spending Hospital Number Literacy Tourism
Food Percent Clothing Percent Beds per of (Percent) Receipts
($ million) of ($ million)** of (000s) Doctors ($ million)**
Country Total* Total* Population
* Percent of all consumer spending.
** In U.S. dollars, basis 1988.
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Eastern Europe and the Baltic States
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECHREPUBLIC SLOVAKIA
HUNGARYROMANIA
BULGARIA
ALBANIA
YUGOSLAVIA
MACEDONIA
BOSNIA ANDHERCEGOVINA
CR
OA
TIA
GREECE
SLOVENIA
TURKEY
BalticSea
BlackSeaAdriatic Sea
TyrmenianSea
Gulf of Finland
AegeanSea
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Eastern European Markets
Population GDP GDP Exports Imports(millions) ($ billions) ($ per capita) ($ millions) ($ millions)
Albania 3.28 $ 2.7 $ 820 $ 80$ 147
Bosnia/Herzegovina (*) 2.66 0.8 300 NA
NA
Bulgaria 9.00 10.1 1,220 4,303 3,271
Croatia (*) 4.78 26.3 5,600 4,6337,582
Czech Republic(**) 10.30 52.0 5,050 14,57516,284
Hungary 10.30 45.7 4,505 19,10015,224
Macedonia(*) 2.05 4.8 2,400 1,2441,420
Poland 38.40 135.3 3,500 25,75142,307
Romania 22.80 34.8 1,544 8,38510,131
Slovakia(**) 5.27 20.7 1,763 12,06313,003
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(*) Former republics of Yugoslavia.(**) Former republics of Czechoslovakia.
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Sources: “Indicators of Market Size for 115 Countries,” Country Monitor,December 25, 2000; and International Trade Statistics yearbook (New York:United Nationa, 2999).
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Asia
MONGOLIA
CHINA
INDIAPAKISTAN
NEPALBHUTAN
BANGLADESH
MYANMAR
LAOS
VIETNAM
CAMBODIA
THAILAND
TAIWAN
S. K0REA
JAPANN. K0REA
PHILIPPINES
Hong Kong
MALAYSIA
SINGAPORESRI LANKA
INDIAN OCEAN
INDONESIA
BRUNEI
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Asian Markets - Selected Countries
Australia 18.5 $ 411.0 $ 22,000 $ 52,966$ 61,347
China 1,230.1 917.7 746 148,755132,007
Hong Kong 6.5 173.6 26,701 173,546192,764
India 955.2 437.2 458 30,53734,456
Indonesia 199.9 215.0 1,076 43,28539,456
Japan 126.2 4,199.5 33,277 443,000335,871
South Korea 46.0 476.0 10,361 125,365135,153
Taiwan 21.5 283.3 13,000 111,837103,652
Population GDP GDP Exports Imports(millions) ($ billions) ($ per capita) ($ millions) ($ millions)
SOURCES: “Indicators of Market Size for 115 Countries,” Country Monitor. December 25, 2000; and S.T.E.T.Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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Restructure state enterprises. SOEs account for about two-fifths of the industrial output but soak up four-fifths of investment.
Strengthen financial markets. Expand and ensure the integrity of capital markets.
Sell state assets. Sell off all but 1,000 of China’s 305,000 state enterprises and allow some to go bankrupt.
Build social services. Create housing, pension programs, and other services to relieve burdens on SOEs and to care for millions who may lose jobs.
Slash tariffs. Reduce average tariffs to 17 percent in 1997 and to 15 percent by 2000 as part of China’s bid to join the World Trade Organization.
Capitalism with Chinese CharactersJiang Zemin’s Reform Agenda
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India’s Five-Point Agenda
1. The improvement of the investment climate.
2. The development of a comprehensive WTO strategy.
3. The reformation of the agriculture, the food processing, and the small-scale industry.
4. The elimination of red tape
5. The institution of better corporate governance.
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Living Standards in Selected Countries
Brazil 38,434 4.05 73% 76% 69%Chile 3,216 4.35 70% 59% 88%China 357,064 3.40 90% NA NAColombia 8,482 4.14 76% 64% 87%Ecuador 2,626 4.36 52% 33% 62%Hong Kong 1,797 3.44 98% 80% 93%India 185,048 5.00 10% 5% 16%Indonesia 43,065 4.50 12% 15% 30%Japan 40,548 3.09 93% 65% 98%Peru 5,057 4.65 49% 43% 48%Philippines 12,750 5.37 NA NA NASingapore 815 3.67 48% 42% 37%South Africa 13,300 3.37 96% 35% 90%United States 100,308 2.62 99% 99% 99%
Percent of HouseholdsHouseholds Persons per Piped Flush Electric
(000) Household Water Toilers Lighting
SOURCES: For additional data, see Demographic Yearbook 1997 (New York: United Nations, 1997); and International Marketing Data Statistics, 18th ed. (London: Euromonitor Publications, 1997).
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Which of the Following have you Purchased in the Past Three Months?
Soft drinks 96 90 93 83 91 94
Fast-food 94 94 91 70 86 85
Athletic footwear 59 40 54 33 30 49
Blue jeans 56 39 62 45 42 44
Beer* 46 50 60 46 57 57
Cigarettes* 24 33 30 38 39 40
Product Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percentin in in in in in
United Australia Brazil Germany Japan UnitedStates Kingdom
* Among adults 18+. Source: Yankelovich Clancy Shulman.
SOURCE: Nancy Giges, "Global Spending Patterns Emerge," Advertising Age, November 11, 1991, p. 64.
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Consumption Patterns in Selected Countries (percent of household expenditures)
Food 10% 12% 19% 35% 29% 37% 38% 30% 52%
Clothing 6% 7% 8% 10% 9% 9% 7% 16%11%
Gross rent 18% 18% 11% 8% 6% 23% 12% 7%10%
Medical care 14% 13% 7% 5% 6% 6% 3% 5%3%
Education 8% 6% 12% 5% 7% 5% 10% 5%4%
Transport/communications 14% 13% 13% 12% 8% 6% 8% 13%
7%
Appliances/other durables 30% 31% 30% 25% 35% 14% 22% 24%
13%
U.S. Germany Singapore Mexico Poland Iran Kenya Thailand India
SOURCE: For additional data, see Ricardo Sookdeo, "The New global consumer."Fortune, Autumn-Winter 1993, pp. 68-72.Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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Living Standards in Selected Countries
Brazil 38,434 4.05 73% 76%69%
Chile 3,216 4.35 70% 59%88%
China 357,064 3.40 90% N/AN/A
Colombia 8,482 4.14 76% 64%87%
Ecuador 2,626 4.36 52% 33%62%
Hong Kong 1,797 3.44 98% 80%93%
India 185,048 5.00 10% 5%16%
Indonesia 43,065 4.50 12% 15%30%
Japan 40,548 3.09 93% 65%98%
Peru 5,057 4.65 49% 43%48%
Philippines 12,750 5.37 NA N/AN/A
Singapore 815 3.67 48% 42%37%
South Korea 13,300 3.37 96% 35%90%
United States 100,308 2.62 99% 99%99%
Percent of HouseholdsCountry Household Persons per Piped Flush Electric
(000) Household Water Toilets Lighting
SOURCE: Demographic Yearbook 1997 (New York: United Nation, 1997); and International Marketing Data and Statistics, 1997 (London: Euromonitor Publication, 1997)Irwin/McGraw-Hill
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