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The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia under the UNFCCC

Riyadh, November 2015

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is pleased to submit its Intended Nationally Determined

Contribution (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC) Secretariat pursuant to the decisions 1/CP.19 and 1/CP.20.

The INDC of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is based on the principles listed in Art. 3 of the

UNFCCC and the approach specified in the Economic Diversification Initiative adopted as

UNFCCC decision 24/CP.18 in Doha 2012. The Kingdom will engage in actions and plans in

pursuit of economic diversification that have co-benefits in the form of greenhouse gas (GHG)

emission avoidances and adaptation to the impacts of climate change, as well as reducing the

impacts of response measures. This will help the Kingdom to achieve its sustainable

development objectives. In this spirit, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia desires to actively

contribute to the UNFCCC negotiations maximizing long term benefits and minimizing

potential negative side effects for Saudi Arabia.

Executive Summary

The actions and plans outlined in this submission seek to achieve mitigation co-benefits

ambitions of up to 130 million tons of CO2eq avoided by 2030 annually through contributions

to economic diversification and adaptation. These ambitions are contingent on the Kingdom’s

economy continuing to grow with an increasingly diversified economy and a robust

contribution from oil export revenues to the national economy. It is also premised on the fact

that the economic and social consequences of international climate change policies and

measures do not pose disproportionate or abnormal burden on the Kingdom’s economy. This

is fully consistent with Article 3 paragraph 2 and Article 4 paragraph 8(h) and 10 of the United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

A dynamic baseline will be developed on basis of a combination of two scenarios. One scenario

assumes economic diversification with a robust contribution of oil export revenues, and the

other on an accelerated domestic industrialization based on sustainable utilization of all

indigenous resources including oil, gas and minerals.

I. National Circumstances

Physical, economic and social factors determine the vulnerability of a country to climate

change and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia exhibits significant vulnerability in all three aspects.

The Arabian Desert dominates the country, which spans approximately 2.2 million km2 of the

Arabian Peninsula. Current climatic conditions range from semi- to hyper aridity, with

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extremely low rainfall (<150mm/year in most areas), high evapotranspiration and resultant

water scarcity. In the long term, a significant share of the infrastructure on the coastlines may

be vulnerable to sea level rise. Trade and services may also be vulnerable to heatwaves and

sandstorms as well as other indirect vulnerabilities including price volatility in exports and

imports of goods and services.

1. Economic diversification is a key factor influencing the stability and sustainability of the

growth of any country’s economy, hence an economy's reliance on one income resource puts

at risk its ability to maintain a level of growth in the long run. Oil production, processing and

export are the primary economic activities of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, however there are

opportunities for gas, minerals and their derivatives to contribute to the Kingdom’s economy.

2. From 1970 to date, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has developed ten 5-year national

development plans (covering the period 1970-2019) to guide the development process for the

Kingdom and provide economic and social stability in the medium to longer term. Central to

all these plans is the policy of economic diversification designed to diversify the Kingdom of

Saudi Arabia’s sources of national income and reduce dependence on revenues from a single

source by increasing the share of other productive sectors in gross domestic product. These

sectors include the manufacturing industries, energy and related derivatives, mining, tourism

and information technology industries.

3. Two scenarios applied for determining dynamic baselines for the period 2000–2030 are

differentiated into three time-periods. First time period covers the years 2000-2015. The year

2000 is used because it is the year that most recent inventory data obtained using the Revised

1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is available (second national

communications). Second and third time- periods are from 2016 to 2020 and 2021-2030

respectively.

3.1. Scenario 1: Economic diversification with a robust contribution from oil and its

derivatives export revenues. Export revenues channelled into investments in high value-

added sectors such as financial services, medical services, tourism, education, renewable

energy and energy efficiency technologies to enhance economic growth. Ambitions

outlined in this INDC are set under this scenario.

3.2. Scenario 2: Accelerated domestic industrialization based on sustainable utilization of

oil and gas. A heavy industrial base built to use domestic oil resources as feedstock or energy

source. Increasing contributions of petrochemical, cement, mining and metal production

industries to the national economy. Economic growth will be much slower under this

scenario, and will be difficult for the Kingdom to finance its INDC ambitions with domestic

resources. In this case, this INDC will be adjusted to account for this scenario.

3.3. The main difference between the two baseline scenarios is the allocation of oil

produced for either domestic consumption or export. While exported oil will not contribute

to the GHG emissions of Saudi Arabia, the domestic consumption will increase its GHG

emissions. For the ex-ante estimations, the baseline is determined based on differently

weighted combinations of the two scenarios. Between 2016 and 2020, Saudi Arabia

reserves the right to further elaborate on its INDC and make additional submissions to

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account for these scenarios. During the run-up to the validity period of the INDC, the

baseline scenarios will be updated.

II. Contribution to Economic diversification with mitigation co-benefits

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has ambitious plans to diversify its economy away from heavy

reliance on income generated from a single resource. Therefore, contribution to the climate

ambition will be integrated in the future policy to promote this plan. The INDC is thus driven

by the aim to implement measures that accelerate the diversification process under paragraph

3.1 above (scenario 1). The following actions and plans will generate mitigation co-benefits

and contribute to economic diversification:

1. Energy Efficiency: implement measures and initiatives that will promote, encourage and

support actions in generating mitigation co-benefits in energy efficiency. Strengthen the Saudi

Energy Efficiency Program and expand its focus. Currently, the program focuses on three main

sectors, namely industry, building and transportation that collectively account for over 90% of

the energy demand in the Kingdom. Support initiatives that will produce far-reaching co-

benefits, such as the introduction of efficiency standards in the building and transportation

sectors as well as the implementation of energy efficiency measures, in various industrial

establishments. Encourage and expedite the conversion of single cycle power plants to

combined cycle power plants.

2. Renewable energies: Invest and implement ambitious programs for renewable energy

to increase its contribution to the energy mix. The scope will include solar PV, solar thermal,

wind and geothermal energy and waste to energy systems. A competitive procurement process

for renewable energy is currently under preparation and evaluation.

3. Carbon Capture and Utilization/Storage: promote and encourage actions in this area.

As part of its sustainability programme, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia plans to build the world’s

largest carbon capture and use plant. This initiative aims to capture and purify about 1,500 tons

of CO2 a day for use in other petrochemical plants. Saudi Arabia will operate on pilot testing

basis, a Carbon Dioxide – Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2-EOR) demonstration project to assess

the viability of CO2 sequestration in oil reservoirs and any other useful applications. Forty

million standard cubic feet a day of CO2 that will be captured, processed and injected into the

Othmaniya oil reservoir. This pilot project has comprehensive monitoring and surveillance

plans. The success of this pilot will determine the extent this program will contribute to the

Kingdom's ambition in addressing climate change.

4. Utilization of gas: Encourage investments on exploring and producing natural gas to

significantly increase its contribution to the national energy mix. The success on realizing the

Mitigation co-benefit ambition in this area will depend on the success of exploring and

developing natural gas.

5. Methane recovery and flare minimization: Actions will be taken to conserve, recover

and reuse hydrocarbon resources and minimize flaring and fugitive emissions.

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III. Contributions to Adaptation

Saudi Arabia is continuously investing considerable efforts and resources in activities that help

protect and renew the Kingdom’s natural environment including protection of the biodiversity

of land, seas and coastlines. Saudi Arabia differentiates its adaptation measures into those with

mitigation co-benefits and those that are entirely aimed at adaptation and raising resilience.

Adaptation measures can also contribute to economic diversification. The INDC in this area

is driven by the aim to implement measures that will enhance resilience and accelerate the

diversification process of its economy under paragraph 3.1 above (scenario 1).

1. Adaptation with mitigation co-benefits: The following adaptation measures are

expected to have significant mitigation co-benefits, depending on their degree of

implementation and availability of funds to pursue planned activities:

1.1. Water and waste water management: Implement actions that will promote and

encourage the reduction, recycle and reuse of water and wastewater in the municipal,

industrial and commercial sectors in a manner that will reduce energy consumption,

desalinated water production and unground leakage.

1.2. Urban planning: Encourage actions that promote the development and use of mass

transport systems in urban areas. Take the necessary actions to expedite the

development of the metro system in Riyadh. In addition support and expedite the

planning and development of metro systems in Jeddah and Dammam.

1.3. Marine Protection: Implement coastal management strategies that are designed to

reduce coastal erosion, increase the sinks for blue carbon, maintain related ecosystems

and address the threats that climate change poses for marine livelihoods. Support the

planting of mangrove seedlings along its coasts. In addition, strengthen and enhance

the coral reef restoration program throughout the northwestern Arabian Gulf.

1.4. Reduced desertification: Undertake measures to enhance desertification

management. Support actions that will promote the stabilization of sand movements

around cities and roads, while increasing sinks for capacity through using green belts

as barriers. Develop and enhance arid and semi-arid rural areas through various natural

resource conservation activities, biodiversity and eco-system based adaptation efforts.

The objective is to improve soil quality, water, pasture and wildlife resources through

a system of protected areas and reserves. Mitigation co-benefits may include those

relating to reducing land degradation and improving land management practices,

especially for agriculture and forestry.

2. Adaptation undertakings: The following adaptation contributions are expected to

support Saudi Arabia’s efforts to address climate change and raise resilience to its impacts:

2.1. Integrated coastal zone management planning (ICZM): Take the necessary action

to develop and implement ICZM plans that would take into account the protection of

coastal infrastructures such as roads, residential areas, industrial complexes,

desalination plants, seaports, etc.;

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2.2. Early Warning Systems (EWS): Develop and operationalize EWS that would reduce

vulnerability due to extreme weather events such as rainstorms, floods and dust storms

by increasing resilience of infrastructure;

2.3. Integrated water management planning: Develop and implement plans that will

harness new sources of freshwater, construct additional dams for collection of drinking

water and recharging of aquifers.

IV. Addressing Response Measures

Saudi Arabia will take the necessary actions to understand international policy measures to

response to climate change, assess the implications of these measures on its economy, and take

necessary steps to raise its resilience to these impacts. International cooperation in addressing

response measures is important for the Kingdom to achieve its sustainable development

objectives and realize its ambitions in addressing climate change; these include:

1. Socio-economic research studies to assess the impacts of mitigation policy measures

implemented outside Saudi Arabia on the Saudi economy, including collection of information

and development of modelling tools.

2. Research and development activities to provide technologies that enhance economic

competitiveness. Research into understanding the long-term impacts of response measures on

energy market stability and to develop measures that can sustain a stable energy market in the

long run. Technology cooperation on the basis of the approaches outlined in paragraphs 24-29

in decision 5/CP.7 will allow for the identification of appropriate technological options, which

are consistent with national priorities, and domestic human and financial resources in order to

promote enabling environment for economic diversification and technological development

(e.g. carbon capture utilization and storage).

3. The long-term aim of such measures is to achieve a growth of domestic industries that

exceeds the loss of revenue from oil export triggered by decrease in fossil fuel consumption

and market distorting actions such as fuel taxes, subsidies and incentives for all complementary

sources of energy.

V. Timeframe

The assessment of baseline covers the period 2021 to 2030. As time progresses, this assessment

will be expanded until 2050. Estimates and ambitions will be adjusted depending on the level

of development and progress toward economic diversification (as outlined in paragraph 3

above) as well as feedbacks from different sectors of the economy.

VI. Means of Implementation

The implementation of Saudi Arabia’s INDC is not contingent on receiving international

financial support, but the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia sees an important role for technology

cooperation and transfer as well as capacity building for INDC implementation.

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1. The ambitions set out in this INDC would require technical assistance and sustained

capacity building efforts and upgrading of skills at the individual and systemic levels to support

their implementation. Saudi Arabia therefore looks for benefiting from all the assistance made

available to developing countries in respect of enabling activities within the framework of the

UNFCCC.

2. Cooperate on research programme on the impacts of response measures on international

energy markets and economies of fossil fuel exporting countries, as well as success parameters

of economic diversification initiatives. Moreover, such international cooperation should focus

on the development, diffusion and transfer of less greenhouse gas-emitting advanced

technologies including fossil fuel technologies.

3. With regard to adaptation, collaboration on the following technologies is seen as crucial:

(a) water saving, recycling, capture, irrigation and sustainable management for agriculture

purposes; (b) early warning system against meteorological extreme events (such as floods,

storms and droughts; and (c) transportation technologies that are resilient to the adverse effects

of climate change while reducing and/or capturing transportation-related emissions. Saudi

Arabia aims to create long-term partnerships with universities, research institutes and the

private sector in order to enable utilization of these technologies.

VII. Monitoring and reporting progress on INDC implementation at the national level

4. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia acknowledges that a monitoring, reporting and verification

(MRV) system forms an essential part of its national arrangements for ensuring the successful

delivery of its economic diversification and adaptation measures with mitigation co-benefits.

The Kingdom’s MRV system for INDC will be an integral part of the existing and future

monitoring and reporting structures under the oversight of its Designated National Authority.

The MRV system will be deployed to track progress towards achieving INDC actions and

projects and any modifications thereof.

VIII. Ambition and Fairness

As a Party to the Convention, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s INDC is based on the UNFCCC

and in particular, its Article 3 paragraph 2 and Article 4 paragraph 8 (h) and 10. Saudi Arabia

is in the process of diversifying its economy. Being highly vulnerable to climate change and

actions and plans to address it, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will be engaged in several actions

to address climate change and make its development more sustainable. The INDC’s focus on

economic diversification as well as adaptation actions with mitigation co-benefits allows to

effectively address and tap on synergies for both responses to climate change. The ambition is

also reflected in the high capital and investment volumes required for economic diversification,

particularly if structural changes to the economy is required and to projects and actions outlined

to implement the INDC.

The contribution achieved through the mitigation co-benefits fulfils the requirement of fairness,

given that the sum of these contributions leads to a significant deviation from a business-as-

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usual emissions path for an economy that highly depends on oil and gas. The measures outlined

in this INDC would achieve significant annual mitigation co-benefits estimated to be up to 130

million tons of CO2eq by 2030. The measures focus on harnessing the mitigation potential in

a way that prevents “lock in” of high-GHG infrastructure. These contributions would only be

possible under scenario 1 pathway of sustained economic growth.