sb 375 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and ... 375 greenhouse gas emission reduction...
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SB 375 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets and Program Performance Reporting
Public Workshops
Sacramento
February 6, 2018
Los Angeles
February 5, 2018
Fresno
January 30, 2018
San Diego
February 13, 2018
Presentation Overview SB 375 target update Update to SB 375 program guidelines Reporting and tracking progress Questions, discussion, and public comment
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Regional Transportation Plans and Sustainable Communities
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California’s MPOs develop Sustainable Communities Strategies to meet region-specific GHG targets set by CARB
CARB must review plan GHG quantification once adopted
Original targets adopted in 2010; CARB must update targets every 8 years
Over 20 SCSs reviewed to date
SB 375 Targets
SB 375: Improving People’s Everyday Transportation OptionsFocus on policies and investments that bring people and destinations close together, with alternative and convenient ways to get around.
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Types of Policies and Investments
Land Use
Transportation
Transportation Demand Management
Transportation Systems Management
Local and Regional Pricing Strategies
Vehicle Technology/Enhanced Mobility
Target Update Considerations
Updated top-down analysis of climate and air quality needs
MPO recommendations Latest changes to State law and program
implementation resources Public process feedback Lessons learned to date from program
implementation
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13%18% 19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2010 Targets Adopted SCSPerformance
Staff Proposed Target(Revised)
GH
G R
EDU
CTI
ON
S R
ELAT
IVE
TO
2005
October and Revised Staff Proposal Proposed higher 2035 targets for most regions Target framework and evaluation process changes
Identify specific measures MPOs implement
Measures tracked with regular progress reports
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Scoping Plan Scenario
SB 375
New State and Local Strategies
Feedback Received on Staff ProposalDesire for a new path forward that: Addresses challenges with current target
framework and the use of modeling as a primary means of evaluation
Added focus on local and regional land use and transportation policies and investments
Ensures MPOs and their local and regional stakeholders continue to innovate and aspire to do more
Enhances implementation and tracking tools
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Proposed Path Forward
Adjust target framework and evaluation process to focus on land use and transportation policy and investments, and changes between plans
Incorporate added reporting and tracking of investments, project performance, and implementation efforts
Adjust 2035 targets to reflect updated information and stakeholder comments
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Big Four MPO 2035 Targets10
** Current SCS Performance as reflected with updated modeling results
MPOCurrently Adopted
Target
Current SCSAnticipated
Performance
CARB Revised Proposed
Target% GHG Reduction Per Capita (Compared to 2005)
MTC/ABAG -15% -15.5%* -19%SACOG -16% -16% -18 to -19%SANDAG -13% -18%** -19%SCAG -13% -18% -19%
* SCS adopted but not yet evaluated by CARB
San Joaquin Valley MPO 2035 Targets11
* Current SCS Anticipated Performance as reflected with updated modeling results
MPO
Currently Adopted Target
Current SCS Anticipated
Performance*
CARB Proposed Target
% GHG Reduction Per Capita (Compared to 2005)
Fresno COG
-10%
-10% -13%
Kern COG -13% -15%
Kings CAG -12% -13%
Madera CTC -15% -16%
Merced CAG -12.7%** -14%
San Joaquin COG -14% -16%
Stanislaus COG -14% -16%
Tulare CAG -15% -16%
** SCS adopted but not yet evaluated by CARB
Six Remaining MPO 2035 Targets12
MPO
Currently Adopted Target
Current SCS Anticipated
Performance
CARB Proposed Target
% GHG Reduction Per Capita (Compared to 2005)
AMBAG -5% -6% -6%
Butte CAG 1% -7% -7%
San Luis Obispo COG -8% -10.9% -11%
Santa Barbara CAG 0% -17% -17%
Shasta RTA 0% -0.5% -4%
Tahoe MPO -5% -5%* -5%
* SCS adopted but not yet evaluated by CARB
Next Steps13
Event/Milestone Date
CARB Target Update Workshops January – February 2018
CARB Board Hearing on Target Update March 22-23, 2018
CARB SB 375 Program Guidelines Update Draft anticipated Summer 2018
CARB SB 150 Regional Sustainable Communities Progress Report
By September 1, 2018, and every four years thereafter; Regular reporting on SCS progress to the Board
Guidelines for SCS Review
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Current SCS Review Methodology and Lessons Learned
Focus on modeling tools and technical aspects of GHG quantification
Some strategies not captured in modeling tools, require off-model calculation methods
Difficult to distinguish impacts of regional SCS strategies from other factors
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Focus on Emissions Reductions Attributable to SCS Strategies
Develop a method to distinguish impact of SCS strategies from modeling assumptions
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Demographics
Price of Fuel
Socioeconomic Factors
Land Use Strategies
Transportation Strategies
% P
er C
apita
GH
G R
educ
tion
from
200
5
MPO Target
Need for an Update to SCS Review Guidelines Establish consistency among key model
inputs and assumptions Specify procedures of sensitivity tests based
on how strategies are represented Provide guidance on off-model strategies Additional reporting on SCS strategy
assumptions
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Next Steps: Update to SB 375 Program Guidelines
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Event/Milestone Date1st Public Workshop Spring 2018Draft Guidelines for SCS Review
Early Summer 2018
2nd Public Workshop Early Summer 2018Final Guidelines for SCS Review
Late Summer 2018
Reporting and Tracking SB 375 Implementation
SB 150 (Allen) Tracking SCS Implementation
GHG target achievement
Metrics for the strategies used to meet the targets
Best practices
Challenges
The effect of state policies and funding
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VMT/capita is going up21
Source: Highway Performance Monitoring System, CalTrans
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23.5
24
24.5
25
25.5
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
VMT
per c
apita
(mile
s)VMT per capita
Focus Areas
1. LAND USE: Compact, infill, transit-oriented and transit-ready growth aligned with regional SCSs
5. INCENTIVES: Users' prices that reflect the true costs of road infrastructure and congestion and rewarding beneficial behavior
2. AFFORDABLE HOMES FOR ALL: Addressing the affordable housing shortage and the displacement that are forcing people to live further from jobs and schools
6. INNOVATIVE MOBILITY SOLUTIONS: Transportation Network Companies and shared mobility options that support pooling, public transit, and active travel
3. CLEAN TRANSPORTATION CHOICES:Transportation networks that make clean transportation choices convenient, particularly for under-served communities
7. STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT: SCS/RTP planning processes that engage public stakeholders to shape policy in meaningful ways
4. HEALTHY COMMUNITIES: Safe and convenient active transportation options and fewer pollution hotspots, especially in under-served or vulnerable communities
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People are driving to work as much as ever
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Source: American Community Survey
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Single Occupancy Commute Mode Share (%)
Transit ridership is going down24
Source: National Transit Database andCalifornia Department of Finance
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Popu
latio
n
Milli
ons
Annu
al R
ider
ship
(trip
s)
Milli
ons
Statewide Transit Ridership and Population
Transit Ridership Population
Reversing trend on farmland conversion for urban purposes
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Source: California Department of Conservation and Department of Finance
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
New
urb
aniz
ed fa
rmla
nd p
er n
ew
popu
latio
n (a
cre/
pers
on)
Statewide New Urbanized Farmland
Increasing share of multi-family housing, yet housing crisis persists
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Source: California Department of Finance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
% o
f SF
and
MF
new
hom
esNew Home Type
Single Family Home Multi Family Home
Closing the Gap: Enhancing Tools and Implementation Resources Implementation of recent SB 1 transportation bill
and housing bills Policies to expand pooling opportunities with
transportation network companies and connected autonomous vehicles
Environmental performance metrics for transportation project selection
Pricing tools for managing vehicle activity impacts and generating funds for sustainable transportation solutions
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Thank youQuestions, Discussion, and Public Comment
SB 375 Staff Contacts: Heather King, [email protected]
Jin Miao, [email protected]
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