scbac 2019 bond program financial presentation · program description fy 2012-13 fy 2013-14 fy...

SCBAC 2019 Bond Program Financial

Presentation

1

David Gaines

Finance Director

June 27, 2019

Objectives

• Overview of Denton’s Debt Structure

• Review Outstanding Debt Service and Issuance History

• Bond Ratings

• Financial Forecast Assumptions

• 2019 Bond Financial Scenarios

2

Current Tax Rate Breakdown

• Tax rate has declined $.06 over the past three years by staying near the effective tax rate

3

What does this mean?

• Maintenance & Operations

• Personnel

• Supplies

• Repairs and Maintenance

• Contractual Services

• Interest and Sinking (I&S) – Debt service payments

• Tax Supported Payments

Maintenance & Operations $0.405432

Interest and Sinking (Debt Service) $0.215045

Total Tax Rate $0.620477

Debt Overview• Outstanding Debt

• General Obligation Bonds• Certificates of Obligation• Revenue Bonds

• Debt Service Fund• Pays for Debt Service Requirements• Property Tax is principal revenue sources• Transfers from other funds, interest income, and delinquent tax revenue are other revenue sources

• Maturity Schedule• 20 Year Bonds Planned for 2019 Bond Program• Debt corresponds to useful life• 9 Year Call Option

• Level Debt Service Payments• Similar to mortgage with higher interest payments in the initial years

4

5

• General Obligations

• Pledge of property taxes

• Lower interest rates than Certificates of Obligations or other Bonds

• Requires election on uniform election date (November or May) with simple majority of voters to approve bond sale

• Certifications of Obligation

• Pledge of property taxes and City utility system revenues

• Lower interest rates than revenue bonds due to property tax pledge (difference to street maintenance fund)

• Requires publication of a notice of intent to issue CO’s with the first publication at least 45 days prior to the sale. (New Legislation Effective September 2019)

• CO’s subject to referendum by a petition signed by 5% or more of registered voters

Debt Overview

6

• Updated Requirements following the 2019 Legislative Session

• Language must include:• Principal and interest of outstanding debt obligations

• Estimated interest rate used for Bond Program

• Debt tax rate associated with Bond Program

• Impact of debt tax rate on a $100K appraised residential homestead

Bond Program Language

General Government Issuance History

7

PROGRAM DESCRIPTION FY 2012-13 FY 2013-14 FY 2014-15 FY 2015-16 FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19

FY 2019-20

Proposed Total

PROP 1 - 2012 BOND ELECTION $ 4,000,000 $ 4,000,000 $ 4,000,000 $ 4,400,000 $ 4,000,000 $ 20,400,000

PROP 1 - 2014 BOND ELECTION $ - $ - $ 9,140,000 $ 4,200,000 $ 4,950,000 $ 15,650,000 $ 14,580,000 $ 13,190,000 $ 61,710,000

PROP 2 - 2014 BOND ELECTION $ - $ - $ 2,880,000 $ 5,475,000 $ 8,210,000 $ 16,565,000

PROP 3 - 2014 BOND ELECTION $ - $ - $ 4,655,000 $ 600,000 $ - $ 2,585,000 $ 705,000 $ 8,545,000

PROP 4 - 2014 BOND ELECTION $ - $ - $ 2,175,000 $ 2,105,000 $ - $ 1,515,000 $ 4,085,000 $ 1,475,000 $ 11,355,000

SUBTOTAL - 2014 BOND ELECTION $ - $ - $ 18,850,000 $ 12,380,000 $ 13,160,000 $ 19,750,000 $ 19,370,000 $ 14,665,000 $ 98,175,000

TOTALS - 2012 AND 2014 BOND ELECTIONS $ 4,000,000 $ 4,000,000 $ 22,850,000 $ 16,780,000 $ 17,160,000 $ 19,750,000 $ 19,370,000 $ 14,665,000 $ 118,575,000

CO Funded Projects $ 13,455,000 $ 10,850,000 $ 8,100,000 $ 8,125,000 $ 18,830,000 $ 41,590,000 $ 8,400,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 110,350,000

Grand Total $ 17,455,000 $ 14,850,000 $ 30,950,000 $ 24,905,000 $ 35,990,000 $ 61,340,000 $ 27,770,000 $ 19,665,000 $ 228,925,000

8

0.00

5,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

15,000,000.00

20,000,000.00

25,000,000.00

30,000,000.00

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

Outstanding General Government Debt ServiceAs of 10/1/2018

PRINCIPAL INTEREST Fiscal Year

Debt Service

Bond Ratings

9

Denton’s Bond Ratings

• AA+ Fitch Ratings (May 2019)

• AA+ S&P Global (May 2019)

• Aa1 Moody’s (June 2019)

Bond Ratings

Moody’s Upgrade From Aa2 to Aa1

Factors in Upgrade

• Expanding tax base

• Healthy and stable financial profile

• Other strengths

• Universities• Population growth• Low unemployment• Maintenance of Fund Balance• Strong Financial and Capital Planning

10

11

-1.55%

2.93%

4.59%3.81%

11.48%

8.54% 8.23%

13.32%

9.53%8.76%

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Preliminary2019*

Mill

ion

s

10-Year History: Property Value Growth(Annual Percentage Change)

Millions

Tax Year

* Includes Frozen Values8% Decrease in Non-Frozen Values

2019 Estimate Based on Preliminary AV

Assessed Value History

Financial Assumptions

12

• Debt Issuances in FY 2019-20:• Remaining $14.66M GO debt to be issued for 2014 Bond Program• Additional $5M in COs for Vehicle Replacement and Facility Improvements

• $5 M in COs will be issued each additional year (FY21 – FY26) • $3.5 M for Vehicle Replacement (5 Year Debt)• $1.5 M for Facility Improvements (10 Year Debt)

• Approx. $3.6M Use of Fund Balance in FY2020-FY2023

• Assumes G.O. debt is amortized over 20 years at a rate of 3.75% in FY2020

• Assumes G.O. debt is amortized over 20 years at a rate of 4.50% in FY21 – FY26

13

Total project Cost Updated Options Current Staff

Option

Proposition 1: Public Safety Facilities

PD CHE Project $ 28,180,000 $ 24,180,000 $ 24,180,000

PD Substation Project $ 11,420,000 $ 11,420,000 $ 11,420,000

PD Firing Range $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000

Fire Station 8 $ 5,400,000 $ 4,900,000 $ 4,900,000

Proposition 2: Roadways and

Infrastructure

Bonnie Brae (V, VI, VII) $ 111,500,000 $ 27,000,000 $ 27,000,000

Hickory Creek $ 160,000,000 $ 34,000,000 $ 34,000,000

Street Rehab Program $ 70,000,000 $ 70,000,000 $ 70,000,000

Sidewalks $ 12,000,000 $ 12,000,000 $ 12,000,000

Robinson Road $ 12,300,000 $ 12,300,000 $ 12,300,000

Ryan Road $10M - $25M $4M-19M $ 8,690,000

Jim Christal $ 16,800,000 $ 1,680,000 $ -

FM 428 $ 44,000,000 - $ -

Other Proposition Requests

Street Lighting $5M - $15M $5M - $15M $ -

Open Space $5M - $15M $5M - $15M $ -

Total $482M - $517M $206M - 221M $ 209,490,000

Current Project Costs

Potential Bond Sale Schedule

14

Project FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY2024 FY2025 TOTAL

Proposition 1: Public Safety Facilities

PD CHE Project $450,000 $23,730,000 $24,180,000

PD Substation Project

$510,000 $10,910,000 $11,420,000

PD Firing Range $1,500,000 $3,500,000 $5,000,000

Fire Station 8 $4,900,000 $4,900,000

Proposition 2: Roadways and Infrastructure

Bonnie Brae (V, VI, VII)

$7,090,000 $2,950,000 $1,550,000 $7,870,000 $5,280,000 $2,260,000 $27,000,000

Hickory Creek $11,200,000 $14,440,000 $8,360,000 $34,000,000

Street Rehab Program

$1,000,000 $8,000,000 $11,000,000 $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $14,000,000 $70,000,000

Sidewalks $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $12,000,000

Robinson Road $7,440,000 $3,130,000 $1,730,000 $12,300,000

Ryan Road $8,080,000 $610,000 $8,690,000

Total $27,150,000 $62,030,000 $22,910,000 $44,890,000 $32,520,000 $19,990,000 $209,490,000

Estimates for Planning Purposes Only

Forecast Scenarios

15

TitleTotal

Program Cost

Assessed Value

Assumptions

Max Debt Service Tax

Rate Increase

Base Case 209,450$ 4% $0.056

Moderate Growth 209,450$ 6% $0.033

Aggressive Growth 209,450$ 8% $0.019

Mixed Growth 209,450$ Variable $0.059

Base Case 150,000$ 4% $0.024

Moderate Growth 150,000$ 6% $0.015

Aggressive Growth 150,000$ 8% $0.007

Mixed Growth 150,000$ Variable $0.026

Base Case 100,000$ 4% $0.006

Moderate Growth 100,000$ 6% No Debt Rate Increase

Aggressive Growth 100,000$ 8% No Debt Rate Increase

Mixed Growth 100,000$ Variable No Debt Rate Increase

$100 Million Bond Program



Scenarios

Base Case Scenario $210M

16

• Total tax rate remains below FY2019 tax rate throughout program• Up to a $0.056 increase to the Debt Service tax rate• 4% AV growth assumption in FY2021-FY2026• FY2021+ M&O Rate at an “effective” level• 3.5% “Rollback” Rate in effect FY2021. Calculation is an initial estimate.

Base Case $210M

FY M&O RateDebt Service

Rate Total Tax Rate Effective Rate 3.5% RollbackEffective

Difference3.5% Rollback

DifferenceAverage Tax

Bill% Tax Bill Increase

2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,447

Preliminary 2020 $0.407 $0.210 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525

2021 $0.391 $0.226 $0.617 $0.593 $0.630 $0.024 ($0.013) $1,586 4.02%

2022 $0.376 $0.244 $0.620 $0.593 $0.633 $0.026 ($0.013) $1,657 4.44%

2023 $0.362 $0.249 $0.611 $0.596 $0.623 $0.015 ($0.012) $1,698 2.50%

2024 $0.348 $0.263 $0.611 $0.587 $0.623 $0.024 ($0.012) $1,766 4.00%

2025 $0.335 $0.266 $0.600 $0.587 $0.612 $0.013 ($0.012) $1,805 2.19%

2026 $0.322 $0.262 $0.583 $0.577 $0.595 $0.006 ($0.011) $1,825 1.08%Average

$0.018 ($0.012) 3.04%(FY2021-FY2026)

Tax Rate Impact – $210M Base Case

17

$-

$0.100000

$0.200000

$0.300000

$0.400000

$0.500000

$0.600000

$0.700000

$0.800000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Property Tax Rate

Operations Rate Debt Service Rate Total Tax Rate

Projected

Moderate Growth Scenario $210M

18


Moderate Growth $210M






2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,447

Preliminary 2020 $0.407 $0.210 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525

2021 $0.384 $0.222 $0.606 $0.582 $0.618 $0.023 ($0.013) $1,587 4.02%

2022 $0.362 $0.234 $0.597 $0.571 $0.609 $0.025 ($0.012) $1,657 4.44%

2023 $0.342 $0.235 $0.577 $0.563 $0.589 $0.014 ($0.012) $1,698 2.50%

2024 $0.322 $0.244 $0.566 $0.544 $0.577 $0.022 ($0.011) $1,766 4.00%

2025 $0.304 $0.242 $0.546 $0.534 $0.556 $0.012 ($0.011) $1,805 2.19%

2026 $0.287 $0.234 $0.520 $0.515 $0.530 $0.006 ($0.010) $1,825 1.08%Average

$0.017 ($0.011) 3.04%(FY2021-FY2026)

Aggressive Growth Scenario $210M

19

• Total tax rate remains below FY2019 tax rate throughout program• Up to a $0.019 increase to the Debt Service tax rate• 8% AV growth assumption in FY2021-FY2026• FY2021+ Operations Rate an “effective” level• 3.5% “Rollback” Rate in effect FY2021. Calculation is an initial estimate.

Aggressive Growth $210






2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,447

Preliminary 2020 $0.407 $0.210 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525

2021 $0.377 $0.217 $0.594 $0.571 $0.607 $0.023 ($0.013) $1,586 4.02%

2022 $0.349 $0.226 $0.575 $0.550 $0.587 $0.024 ($0.012) $1,657 4.44%

2023 $0.323 $0.222 $0.546 $0.532 $0.557 $0.013 ($0.011) $1,698 2.50%

2024 $0.299 $0.226 $0.525 $0.505 $0.536 $0.020 ($0.010) $1,766 4.00%

2025 $0.277 $0.220 $0.497 $0.486 $0.507 $0.011 ($0.010) $1,805 2.19%

2026 $0.256 $0.209 $0.465 $0.460 $0.474 $0.005 ($0.009) $1,825 1.08%Average

$0.016 ($0.011) 3.04%(FY2021-FY2026)

Mixed Growth Scenario $210M

20

• Total tax rate remains below FY2019 tax rate throughout program• Up to a $0.059 increase to the Debt Service tax rate• Variable AV Growth Assumptions

• FY21 8%, FY22 6%, FY23 4%, FY24 2%, FY25 1%, FY2026 0%• FY2021+ Operations Rate an “effective” level• 3.5% “Rollback” Rate in effect FY2021. Calculation is an initial estimate.

Mixed Growth






2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,447

Preliminary 2020 $0.407 $0.210 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525

2021 $0.377 $0.217 $0.594 $0.571 $0.607 $0.023 ($0.013) $1,586 4.02%

2022 $0.356 $0.230 $0.586 $0.561 $0.598 $0.025 ($0.012) $1,657 4.44%

2023 $0.342 $0.235 $0.577 $0.563 $0.589 $0.014 ($0.012) $1,698 2.50%

2024 $0.335 $0.253 $0.589 $0.566 $0.600 $0.023 ($0.012) $1,766 4.00%

2025 $0.332 $0.264 $0.595 $0.583 $0.607 $0.013 ($0.012) $1,805 2.19%

2026 $0.332 $0.270 $0.602 $0.595 $0.614 $0.006 ($0.012) $1,825 1.08%Average

$0.017 ($0.012) 3.04%(FY2021-FY2026)


21


Base Case $150M






2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,447

Preliminary 2020 $0.408 $0.209 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525

2021 $0.392 $0.226 $0.618 $0.593 $0.631 $0.024 ($0.013) $1,587 4.08%

2022 $0.377 $0.234 $0.611 $0.594 $0.623 $0.017 ($0.013) $1,632 2.82%

2023 $0.362 $0.230 $0.592 $0.587 $0.605 $0.005 ($0.012) $1,647 0.90%

2024 $0.349 $0.232 $0.580 $0.570 $0.593 $0.011 ($0.012) $1,678 1.90%

2025 $0.335 $0.230 $0.565 $0.558 $0.577 $0.007 ($0.012) $1,699 1.20%

2026 $0.322 $0.228 $0.551 $0.543 $0.562 $0.007 ($0.011) $1,722 1.37%Average

$0.012 ($0.012) 2.05%(FY2021-FY2026)


22


Moderate Growth $150M






2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,447

Preliminary 2020 $0.408 $0.209 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525

2021 $0.385 $0.221 $0.606 $0.582 $0.619 $0.024 ($0.013) $1,587 4.08%

2022 $0.363 $0.225 $0.588 $0.572 $0.600 $0.016 ($0.012) $1,632 2.82%

2023 $0.342 $0.217 $0.560 $0.555 $0.571 $0.005 ($0.012) $1,647 0.90%

2024 $0.323 $0.215 $0.538 $0.528 $0.549 $0.010 ($0.011) $1,678 1.90%

2025 $0.305 $0.209 $0.514 $0.507 $0.524 $0.006 ($0.011) $1,699 1.20%

2026 $0.287 $0.204 $0.491 $0.484 $0.501 $0.007 ($0.010) $1,722 1.37%Average

$0.011 ($0.011) 2.05%(FY2021-FY2026)


23

• Total tax rate remains below FY2019 tax rate throughout program• Up to a $0.007 increase to the Debt Service tax rate• 8% AV growth assumption in FY2021-FY2026• FY2021+ Operations Rate an “effective” level• 3.5% “Rollback” Rate in effect FY2021. Calculation is an initial estimate.

Aggressive Growth $150M






2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,447

Preliminary 2020 $0.408 $0.209 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525

2021 $0.378 $0.217 $0.595 $0.571 $0.607 $0.023 ($0.013) $1,587 4.08%

2022 $0.350 $0.217 $0.566 $0.551 $0.578 $0.016 ($0.012) $1,632 2.82%

2023 $0.324 $0.205 $0.529 $0.524 $0.540 $0.005 ($0.011) $1,647 0.90%

2024 $0.300 $0.199 $0.499 $0.490 $0.509 $0.009 ($0.010) $1,678 1.90%

2025 $0.277 $0.190 $0.468 $0.462 $0.477 $0.006 ($0.010) $1,699 1.20%

2026 $0.257 $0.182 $0.439 $0.433 $0.448 $0.006 ($0.009) $1,722 1.37%Average

$0.011 ($0.011) 2.05%(FY2021-FY2026)


24

• Total tax rate remains below FY2019 tax rate throughout program• Up to a $0.026 increase to the Debt Service tax rate• Variable AV Growth Assumptions


Mixed Growth $150M






2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,447

Preliminary 2020 $0.408 $0.209 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525

2021 $0.378 $0.217 $0.595 $0.571 $0.607 $0.023 ($0.013) $1,587 4.08%

2022 $0.356 $0.221 $0.577 $0.561 $0.589 $0.016 ($0.012) $1,632 2.82%

2023 $0.342 $0.217 $0.560 $0.555 $0.571 $0.005 ($0.012) $1,647 0.90%

2024 $0.336 $0.223 $0.559 $0.549 $0.571 $0.010 ($0.012) $1,678 1.90%

2025 $0.332 $0.228 $0.560 $0.554 $0.572 $0.007 ($0.012) $1,699 1.20%

2026 $0.332 $0.236 $0.568 $0.560 $0.580 $0.008 ($0.012) $1,722 1.37%Average

$0.011 ($0.012) 2.05%(FY2021-FY2026)


25

• Total tax rate remains near effective tax rate• Up to a $0.006 increase to the Debt Service tax rate• 4% AV growth assumption in FY2021-FY2026• FY2021+ M&O Rate at an “effective” level• 3.5% “Rollback” Rate in effect FY2021. Calculation is an initial estimate.

Base Case $100M






2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,447

Preliminary 2020 $0.408 $0.209 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525

2021 $0.392 $0.205 $0.597 $0.593 $0.610 $0.004 ($0.013) $1,535 0.66%

2022 $0.377 $0.216 $0.593 $0.574 $0.606 $0.019 ($0.013) $1,585 3.24%

2023 $0.362 $0.211 $0.573 $0.570 $0.585 $0.003 ($0.012) $1,593 0.50%

2024 $0.349 $0.210 $0.559 $0.551 $0.571 $0.008 ($0.012) $1,616 1.42%

2025 $0.335 $0.205 $0.541 $0.537 $0.552 $0.003 ($0.012) $1,625 0.60%

2026 $0.322 $0.202 $0.524 $0.520 $0.535 $0.004 ($0.011) $1,638 0.78%Average

$0.007 ($0.012) 1.20%(FY2021-FY2026)


26

• Total tax rate remains near effective tax rate• No Increase to the Debt Service Tax Rate• 6% AV growth assumption in FY2021-FY2026• FY2021+ M&O Rate at an “effective” level• 3.5% “Rollback” Rate in effect FY2021. Calculation is an initial estimate.

Moderate Case $100M






2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,447

Preliminary 2020 $0.408 $0.209 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525

2021 $0.385 $0.201 $0.586 $0.582 $0.599 $0.004 ($0.013) $1,535 0.66%

2022 $0.363 $0.208 $0.571 $0.553 $0.583 $0.018 ($0.012) $1,585 3.24%

2023 $0.342 $0.199 $0.541 $0.538 $0.553 $0.003 ($0.012) $1,593 0.50%

2024 $0.323 $0.195 $0.518 $0.511 $0.529 $0.007 ($0.011) $1,616 1.42%

2025 $0.305 $0.187 $0.491 $0.489 $0.502 $0.003 ($0.011) $1,625 0.60%

2026 $0.287 $0.180 $0.467 $0.464 $0.477 $0.004 ($0.010) $1,638 0.78%Average

$0.006 ($0.011) 1.20%(FY2021-FY2026)


27

• Total tax rate remains near effective tax rate• No Increase to the Debt Service Tax Rate• 8% AV growth assumption in FY2021-FY2026• FY2021+ Operations Rate an “effective” level• 3.5% “Rollback” Rate in effect FY2021. Calculation is an initial estimate.

Aggressive Growth $100M






2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,446.735

Preliminary 2020 $0.408 $0.209 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525.219

2021 $0.378 $0.198 $0.575 $0.571 $0.588 $0.004 ($0.013) $1,535.312 0.66%

2022 $0.350 $0.200 $0.550 $0.533 $0.562 $0.017 ($0.012) $1,585.133 3.25%

2023 $0.324 $0.188 $0.512 $0.509 $0.523 $0.003 ($0.011) $1,593.065 0.50%

2024 $0.300 $0.181 $0.481 $0.474 $0.491 $0.007 ($0.010) $1,615.720 1.42%

2025 $0.277 $0.170 $0.448 $0.445 $0.457 $0.003 ($0.010) $1,625.470 0.60%

2026 $0.257 $0.161 $0.418 $0.414 $0.427 $0.003 ($0.009) $1,638.144 0.78%Average

$0.006 ($0.011) 1.20%(FY2021-FY2026)


28

• Total tax rate remains near effective tax rate• No Increase to the Debt Service Tax Rate• Variable AV Growth Assumptions


Mixed Growth $100M






2019 $0.405 $0.215 $0.620 $1,447

Preliminary 2020 $0.408 $0.209 $0.617 $0.597 $0.020 $1,525

2021 $0.378 $0.198 $0.575 $0.571 $0.588 $0.004 ($0.013) $1,478 -3.07%

2022 $0.356 $0.204 $0.560 $0.543 $0.572 $0.018 ($0.012) $1,498 1.30%

2023 $0.342 $0.199 $0.541 $0.539 $0.553 $0.003 ($0.012) $1,505 0.50%

2024 $0.336 $0.203 $0.538 $0.531 $0.550 $0.008 ($0.012) $1,556 3.41%

2025 $0.332 $0.204 $0.536 $0.533 $0.548 $0.003 ($0.012) $1,612 3.59%

2026 $0.332 $0.208 $0.540 $0.536 $0.552 $0.004 ($0.012) $1,690 4.81%Average

$0.007 ($0.012) 1.76%(FY2021-FY2026)

29

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