RREGIONAL EGIONAL SSCENARIO PLANNING STUDYCENARIO PLANNING STUDYSCENARIO PLANNING APPROACH AND OVERVIEWSCENARIO PLANNING APPROACH AND OVERVIEW

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• General Overview

• Partnering Strategy

• Project Approach

• Project Deliverables

GENERAL OVERVIEW:GENERAL OVERVIEW:PROJECT BACKGROUNDPROJECT BACKGROUND

SCENARIO PLANNING 101SCENARIO PLANNING 101

HOW DO REGIONS GROW?HOW DO REGIONS GROW?

THE 4D ANALYSISTHE 4D ANALYSIS

Building on the LRTP:“The combination of inadequate revenue for transportation improvements & local land use policies that promote decentralized growth are threatening the sustainability of our region.”

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Region at a Cross-Roads:• Rapid and Decentralized Growth

• Significant Land Available for Development

• Regional vs. Local Interests

• Inadequate Revenue to Meet Needs

What is scenario planning?Scenario planning provides a forum, process, set of tools, and measurable outcomes for communities of all sizes to contemplate future possibilities.

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Regional Applications:• Strategic Development Plans

• Long Range Transportation Plans

• Prioritizing Capital Improvements

• Growth Audits

Why do scenario planning?

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• Explore the “what if’s” of a region’s future

• Consider the tradeoffs between different growth scenarios or policy decisions

• Re-frame local growth questions

• Answer what, where, when & how growth should occur to meet a shared vision

“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used to create them.”

-- Albert Einstein

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Growth patterns & intensities observed in a region are influenced by:

• natural features

• transportation network

• available utilities

• market conditions

• local policies

Study AreaDecentralized Growth Pattern:Decentralized growth (a.k.a. suburban sprawl) favors single use, low-density development that is generally isolated, or not well connected.

Typical residential neighborhood and suburban commercial center surrounding an interchange under a decentralized growth scenario (e.g., Houston, TX or Los Angeles, CA).

Study AreaCenters, Corridors, Open Space:Growth directed into discrete centers, linked by one or more regional transportation corridors, encourages compact development, economic vitality, and environmental stewardship. Land surrounding compact centers remains green and generally reserved for rural preservation, agriculture activities, and open space.

The typical development pattern assumed for a compact town center within a centers, corridors, and open space growth scenario (e.g., BCDCOG Region, Charleston, SC).

Study AreaCompact Metropolitan Center:Compact metropolitan centers manage growth by promoting planned, compact, and orderly development patterns. These patterns are efficiently served by public facilities and services while preserving agriculture activities and open space outside of the defined development boundary.

The typical development pattern assumed in a compact metropolitan center growth scenario (e.g., Portland, OR or Miami-Dade County, FL).

Study AreaReorganizing growth patterns in the region has the potential to result in more efficient and cost-effective infrastructure, improved quality-of-life, and increased environmental stewardship.

A successful transformation in the region will require evaluation of the 4Ds commonly associated with the relationship between land use, urban design, transportation, utilities, and fiscal spending.

The 4Ds:• Density

• Design

• Diversity (mix of uses)

• Distance

PARTNERING STRATEGY:PARTNERING STRATEGY:KEY STAKEHOLDERSKEY STAKEHOLDERS

OUTREACH & COORDINATIONOUTREACH & COORDINATION

PROJECT WEBSITEPROJECT WEBSITE

Study AreaRegional Agencies/Institutions

• Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization• George Washington Region Commission (GWRC)• Rappahannock Economic Development Corporation• Rappahannock River Basin Commission• Fredericksburg Regional Commerce• GWRC Green Government Commission • Mary Washington University

Local Jurisdictions

• Spotsylvania County• Stafford County• King George County• Caroline County• City of Fredericksburg• Town of Port Royal• Town of Bowling Green

Public Utilities

• Dominion Virginia Power• Rappahannock Electric Cooperative• Verizon of Virginia• Columbia Gas of Virginia

 

Focus Groups Participants

• Virginia Economic Development Partnership• Fredericksburg Regional Alliance• Local Real Estates Experts• Local Developers

Commonwealth of Virginia

• Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT)

 

U.S. Government/Military Installations

• National Park Service  • Marine Corps Base Quantico• Fort A.P. Hill• Dahlgren Naval Surface Warfare Center

Study Area• Kick-Off Meeting with Local Jurisdictions

• GWRC Commission Briefings

• FAMPO Policy Committee Meetings

• CAO Coordination Meetings

• Study Advisory Committee

• Focus Group Meetings

• Sub-Region Citizen Workshops

Study AreaThe latest project information plus a list of upcoming events can be found at www.____________.com.

PROJECT APPROACH:PROJECT APPROACH:REGIONAL SCANREGIONAL SCAN

COMMUNITY ASSESSMENTSCOMMUNITY ASSESSMENTS

REGIONAL SCENARIO PLANNINGREGIONAL SCENARIO PLANNING

REALITY CHECKREALITY CHECK

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The “regional scan” will communicate how land is organized, used, and supported by public facilities and services. It also will serve as the baseline for measuring impacts associated with future year growth scenarios.

What is it?

What is covered?• Natural environment

• Built environment

• Supporting infrastructure

• Regional influences

• Other plans’ guidance

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Community assessments will be made in each local jurisdiction to identify the community’s stated vision and values toward development.

What is it?

What is addressed?• Community character

• Development compatibility

• Review of local plans & ordinances

• Place-making qualities

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The term “place” is generally thought of as the look or feel of a development or neighborhood, that which sets it apart from other areas. Place types have their own unique setting, land use pattern, visual qualities, and characteristics of development.

Place-Making Elements:• Development pattern

• Density or intensity

• Prevailing building height

• Open space elements

• Street pattern

• Block size

• Street connectivity

• Street cross section

• Building architecture

• Landscape

What makes a place?

Character Areas

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A place type palette will be used to identify and describe different development patterns, types, and intensities prevalent in the region. The palette will include a full range of place types that people may choose from for building future growth scenarios considered for the region.

Place Type Palette:

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“Base Year” “Future Year”

Traditional Approach…Stakeholders carry forward current trends to a pre-defined future planning horizon (i.e., business-as-usual).

Study AreaScenario Planning Approach…

“Base Year” “Future Year Alternatives”

Stakeholders consider several plausible futures for a region assuming a pre-defined planning horizon.

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Scenario Planning Approach…

Stakeholders evaluate competing development alternatives and establish a common vision for regional policies and decision-making related to new growth and anticipated changes in the region.

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Scenario Planning Software

Development Chip Game

Regional TDM Focus Area Studies Project Website

Growth Forecasts

Scenario Planning Toolbox:

Study AreaCommunityViz® Software:

What is it?A decision-based software that evaluates competing future year growth scenarios under consideration for a region.

Benefits:• Time savings

• Local calibration features

• Side-by-side comparison

• Quick updates

• Public involvement tool

• Becomes new planning tool for GWRC, FAMPO, and member jurisdictions

Study AreaCommunityViz® Software:

Who is using it?

Study AreaDevelopment Chip Game:

What is it?

The development chip game is a hands-on, interactive opportunity that participants use to express their desire as to the region’s future. In a workshop setting, participants prepare a plan representing their vision of the region based on their values. Trade-offs from scenarios are measured and evaluated to inform participants about the potential regional impacts created as a result of local (participant) land use decisions.

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Several growth scenarios will be considered for the region to highlight the trade-offs associated with competing growth patterns and intensities.

Build Growth Scenarios:

Key Features:

• Scenarios will be developed at each sub-region & then combined for the region (scenario quilting)

• Scenarios will build on ideas generated during development chip games held in each community

• Scenarios will be different enough to pose real alternative choices for meeting the region’s goals

Study AreaEvaluate the Alternatives…Reality Check!

PROJECT DELIVERABLES:PROJECT DELIVERABLES:REGIONAL SCENARIO PLANNING STUDYREGIONAL SCENARIO PLANNING STUDY

COMMUNITYVIZCOMMUNITYVIZ®® TRAINING TRAINING

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• A report will be prepared to summarize the planning process, key findings, & recommendations generated from the scenario planning initiative.

• A general framework plan for the region and supporting strategies (i.e., best management practices) presented in the report will be available as a resource for local governments.

• Local jurisdictions should contemplate recommendations in the report as they update their locally-adopted plans and ordinances.

Regional Scenario Planning Study:

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• One example of the hand-off of tools used during the planning process to support future scenario planning studies (or monitoring) in the region independent of the consultant.

• Multi-day event will be open to staff from local jurisdictions represented in the region.

CommunityViz® Training:

RREGIONAL EGIONAL SSCENARIO PLANNING STUDYCENARIO PLANNING STUDYGENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNINGGENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNING