1

Scenario Planning to Support Climate-Related Decision Making: Context RICHARD H. MOSS Joint Global Change Research Institute (Pacific NW Nat’l Laboratory and U of Maryland) Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making: the State of the Art University of Arizona, Institute of the Environment, Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions March 31-April1, 2015

!""#$%&$'

()**)+,'-+**./'01.231/45*)6.21'-)7.721/7'89:;$<;8<'

=)>?

/1'7+

?/@1

A'"B

&&'"

5-5'

03.2'./1'231'C/)D1/7'+E'+F71/D1C')6G.@27H'#++I),>'.31.CJ'3+K'@+?*C'C)L1/1,2'C1D1*+G61,2'@3+)@17'.L1@2'231'6.G'+E'E?2?/1')6G.@27H'

MN7G1/.,O.'%2.,@)+LJ'P

Q.),1'

NR21,7)+,'.,C'Q.),1'%1.'S/.,2'

=NQ&'G3+2+'FT'0

1,C1**'&U'-.D)7'V/U'

-1@)7)+,7'!+21,W.**T'&L1@21C'FT'5*)6.21'53.,>1'

Factors of Success in Planning for Non-Stationary Climate

4

! " Some planners/decision makers are successfully integrating climate change into ongoing decisions

! " Factors of success included: ! " Weather-related crises that spurred action ! " Using available information ! " Access to local expertise, and ! " Considering climate impacts within existing planning processes

! " Scenario planning: identify goals and possible ways of achieving them ! " Top-down scenarios: provide context and stress tests for robustness

! " This presentation provides a brief update on developments in top-down scenarios ! " International process ! " National assessment

S&B'8X$<Y<A'5*)6.21'53.,>1Z=?2?/1'=1C1/.*'&C.G2.W+,'NL+/27'5+?*C'(1[1/'%?GG+/2'#+@.*'\,E/.72/?@2?/1'-1@)7)+,'Q.I1/7' '''

Different Ways to Characterize the Future

5./21/'12'.*UJ'<;;]U'53'<J'\!55'=+?/23'&7717761,2'^1G+/2J'0S<U'

!"#$%&'()*+,-("#&.*/*,

Nested Scenario Approaches: Interactions from Local to Global

Global, national, and regional factors influence local communities and conditions

Nested scenario approaches explore interactions and ‘the space between’

4/2/15 7

International ‘Parallel’ Scenario Process

Parallel Scenario Process

Q+77'12'.*UJ'<;8;U'

01!*,21(345#/#6,

178!9,21(345#/#6,

:;."#$,:(&%(<#&()(3%&,!./;=.>*,2::!*6+,:;."#$,!(5%&>,?**@34'()*,2:!?*6,,2%),4"(&#**6,

Q113*'12'.*U'<;;]J'05^!'^1G+/2U'

:(&%(<#&()(3%&,&;.55#)A#*,B(",.$.4/.'(),

:(&%

(<#&

()(3

%&,

&;.5

5#)A

#*,B(

",3%'

A.'(

),

Socioeconomic Futures: Challenges to Adaptation and Mitigation

,,,::!,CD,!"#$%&'())*+,*-.'

%?72.),.F)*)2T'

,,,,,::!,ED,!/0,'%&'())*+,*-.%

^1>)+,.*'^)D.*/T'

,,,,,::!,FD,_12(345%&'())*+,*-%6#70+(4*.%

\,1`?.*)2T'

,,,,,,::!,9D,!8045%&'())*+,*-%6#70+(4*.'

^.G)C'S/+K23'

,,,,,::!,GD,%!9+4*:7*20(4*%&'())*+,*-.%'

Q)CC*1'+E'231'^+.C'

! " SSPs are socio-economic ‘reference’ pathways (no new climate policies)

! " Overarching design questions: ! " How do changes in

climate and society affect impacts and well being?

! " How easy/difficult is it to achieve a climate target given an SSP reference scenario?

The Scenario Framework Enables Assessment of Uncertaintiy in Societal and Climate Futures

Forc

ing

leve

l (W

/m2 )

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Shared Socio-economic Pathways

SSP4 SSP5

6 - 7.5 W/m2 >8 W/m2

5.2 – 6.2 W/m2 ~5.8 W/m2

Climate Policy Scenarios

? %+?/@1A'a1TK.,'^).3)'

Socioeconomic Data (SSPs)

https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb

All data will be publicly available at the SSP database Already available (national data) GDP Population (structure, education, tot) Urbanization IAM scenario data Energy Land-use Emissions Forcing & Temperature Other relevant indicators (energy/carbon price, economic feedbacks, etc..) Resolution: 5 World Regions (more details available from IAM teams 10-26 regions) At the moment there are no concrete plans for spatial downscaling

%+?/@1A'a1TK.,'^).3)'

4/2/15 12

Innovations in Scenarios for the NCA3

Scenarios for NCA3

! " Used existing literature: ! " High and low change climate

scenarios (IPCC) using global and regional models

! " Downscaled climate data ! " Population and land cover

! " What was new: ! " Climate ‘outlooks’ ! "Global mean sea level change

scenarios for risk framing ! " Participatory scenario

planning ! " Dissemination through

http://scenarios.globalchange.gov 13

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000

Hea

t W

ave

Ind

ex

H?011?!+,1;.)A#,%),?))@.5,!"#&%4%/.'(),GIFC<GIJI,3%)@*,CKJC<GIII,

NCA Scenario Planning Pilot

! " Purpose: enable communities engaged in their own planning process to explore implications of climate change and test how this method could be supported by NCA

! " Idea: Stakeholder participants (existing groups/organizations) conduct planning/visioning and consider implications of two futures with input from NCA authors ! " “The Best Chance You’ll Get” – low climate change, slow population

growth, high per capita GDP, high environmental concern, compact urban areas, less disruption of ecosystems

! " “Big Problems, Low Capacity” – high climate change, high population growth, slow economic development, low environmental concern, sprawling urban development, more disruption of ecosystems

! " In second stage, participants explore adaptation strategies (not just technologies) for the challenging scenario

! " Results would be brought into assessment chapters

4/2/15 Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute 14

Well, We Tried!

15

Going Forward

! " What is the state of the art in scenario planning?

! " How can more widespread use of scenario planning be encouraged?

! " Which aspects of top-down scenarios are useful, and which need to be improved?

16

Thank you!

Richard Moss Joint Global Change Research Institute rhm@pnnl.gov rmoss@umd.edu 301-314-6711 (o)

17