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Copyright © 2005 by akva Scenario Creations

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Ahmed Abd El Ghaffar

Katrin Alberding

Vasily Nicholsky

Anaken Lai

St. Andrews University Press United Kingdom St Andrews

Copyright © 2005 by akva Scenario Creations, A group operating under the supervision of the University of St. Andrews Management Institute. We encourage readers to use and share the content of this report, with the understanding that it is the intellectual property of akva Scenario Creations, and that full attribution is required. ISBN 0-X269847-1-0

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Today, the future seems like a puzzle to many because of growing uncertainties and an overflow

of information. The scenario approach is a method used to unwind this labyrinth of information

and indefinable variables, by developing a number of easily understandable concepts of possible

futures. The akva team applied such a method in order to build hypothetical storylines of the

future of higher education in Scotland.

Various insights and new perspectives on old concepts have been the result of our study. Major

findings include an understanding of the dynamic shifts from a static, to a more dynamic

environment, within which political trends develop towards cross-border co-operation and

liberalising democracies. Economic wealth increases and Information technology has never

been so advanced. Along these trends resides the higher educational sector that interacts with

this environment. In response to globalisation, the system opens doors to foreign students. In

response to technological developments, online classes and virtual universities come into place.

In response to a lack of specialized skills, corporations open their own universities. There is a

driver to every outcome. But where do the drivers take us next?

In our study, we identified three main drivers: technology, university funding and international

integration. Traditional forecasters would not hesitate to calculate their future, but we have learnt

better. The future, especially in the long term, is not easily predicted. There is more than one

direction in which the driver can develop, and probability is difficult to attach to variables so far in

advance. Left is the development of many futures – those that embrace the possibilities and

allow for preparation to any scenario. By asking “What if”, we developed three of these

scenarios:

1. A future with much IT at universities, a focus on public funding and little international

integration

2. A scenario where IT is less widely spread, universities are funded through the public and

the private sector, and international integration occurs on the EU level

3. A world where technology is least developed, face to face education remains important

and private educational funding takes over; integration on an international scale occurs

These scenarios form the basis of our understanding that higher education institutes will have to

prepare flexible strategies to account for change, which actually appears to be the only variable

that we can predict with certainty.

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The akva team was founded in September 2005. Headquartered in St. Andrews (Scotland), the

group focuses on scenario research and creation. It consists of four individuals from various

cultural backgrounds that contribute to the expertise of this team. Furthermore, akva Scenario

Creations disposes of an excellent resource base for its studies through the support of one of

the leading Scenario Thinking Centres worldwide: The Gateway Management Department of St.

Andrews.

Ahmed

Abd El

Ghaffar Economic Analyst

Scenario Narrator

• Ahmed is a 4th year undergraduate student at the University of St. Andrews pursuing a

degree in International Relations and Management. Prior to joining St. Andrews he

attended the British International School in Cairo where he completed his secondary

schooling and was awarded the International Baccalaureate Diploma.

• Ahmed has experience in the banking and financial services sector. He completed an

internship at MIBC Group for Marketing Securities where he was a member of a team

representing the seller in the privatization of a major bank. He also interned at HSBC

Bank in the Trade Department, Corporate Banking, and Branch Customer Service.

• Amongst other activities Ahmed enjoys horseback riding and squash. He is also a

member of the Global Investment Group and was the elected Junior Honours Class

Representative in 2004 in the International Relations Department Staff Student

Consultative Committee. Ahmed has excellent command of both written and spoken

English and Arabic.

Katrin A.

Alberding Political Analyst

Methodology Expert

Design & Layout

• Katrin is from Germany and currently a student of Management and International

Relations at the University of St. Andrews.

• Previous to her studies in the UK, she was educated in the USA and Germany; she

graduated with a High School Diploma and an International Baccalaureate Degree

• Katrin gained relevant experiences in analysis and research throughout her internships

in the Economics Department of the German Embassy in Washington DC (USA), in the

Marketing Department of DaimlerChrysler in Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) and in

Investment Banking (Mergers & Acquisitions) with Citigroup in London (UK)

• In her extra-curricular time Katrin has taken over various leadership positions, including

President of the University’s Model United Nations Society and President of the Water

Polo Club, where she also played in the first team for several years

• Other relevant skills include fluency in German and English as well as comfortable

working knowledge with MS Office, Adobe Photoshop, Lotus Notes, Datastream, SDC,

Bloomberg and Factiva

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Vasily V.

Nicholsky Social & Environmental

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Scenario Narrator

• Vasily is from Russia and currently a student in Management and Philosophy at the

University of St. Andrews

• Previous to his studies in the university, he was educated in England, where he had

graduated from one of the top mixed schools in Britain. He also holds a Russian High

School Diploma for which he had studied part time

• Vasily gained relevant experiences throughout various internships in retail, marketing,

management, investment banking and private equity

• Other relevant skills include fluency in Russian and English as well as comfortable

working knowledge with MS Office, Apple Works, Bloomberg and Reuters

Anaken

Lai Technological & Legal Analyst

Scenario Literature Expert

• Anaken is an international student from Hong Kong and currently reading (M.A. Hons)

Single Management at University of St Andrews

• Before furthering his studies in the U.K, Anaken was educated in Hong Kong and he

finished the Hong Kong A-level in 2002. Also, he achieved the “Investment

Administrative Qualification” award by Securities and Investment Institution (United

Kingdom) in August, 2005

• Anaken gained working experience in various field range from financial investment

(HSBC, HK), research assistant (Lingnan University of Hong Kong) and management

consultant (Legal Engineering Group, Hong Kong)

• Other relevant skills include fluent in Cantonese, Mandarin and English and intermediate

level on both Japanese and Russian. Also, he gains comprehensive skills on MS Office,

Adobe Photoshop, Java, Java-script, C programming, Macro-media Flash and

Dreamweaver.

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Prof. McKiernan & Dr. MacKay

We would like to thank Professor McKiernan and Dr. MacKay, alongside with the Management

Department, for their support and guidance on this project. Their expertise and willingness to

share their knowledge with us has been a true help to us and proved vital in keeping our

thoughts directed at the matter.

St. Andrews University Postgraduates

The two Postgraduates Ryan Parks and Gary Bowman deserve mention at this point for their

constant availability and great advise they gave throughout this course.

Our Fellow Group

We would also like to mention our fellow group of students participating in this class with us.

Although their project differed from our own, their opinion and knowledge on many matters has

been highly valuable to us. Not at least, it was enjoyable to experience the work between two

groups in collaboration, rather than competition.

The Publishing House

Furthermore, much appreciation goes to the publishing House (The St. Andrews University

Press), locally also known as “Reprographics”. Thank you for your excellent work!

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Executive Summary i

Meet the Team ii

Acknowledgements iv

Table of Contents v

Introduction 1

Chapter 1: Methodologies for Building Futures

Chapter Summary 3

Introduction 4

Outlining Key Methods:

• Forecasting 5

• The Delphi Method 9

• Scenario Thinking 14

- Morphological Analysis 16

- Intuitive Logics 20

- The French School 24

- The St. Andrews Approach 27

Analysis and Discussion: A Comparison of Methods 30

Chapter 2: Literature Review

Chapter Summary 36

Analysis of Scenario Literature

• Definition of Scenarios 37

• Scenario Building as a Strategic Planning Tool 39

• Potential Fields of Interest for Future Research 45

Chapter 3: The akva Approach

Chapter Summary 47

Our Approach: The St. Andrews Method 48

• Scoping and Diagnosis 49

• Data Collection 50

v

• Environmental Analysis: Drivers & Trends 55

• Ranking of Key Drivers 60

• Projection of Key Drivers 62

• Building the Scenario 64

• Selecting Signposts and Indicators 65

• From Scenarios to Strategies 66

Chapter 4: Scenarios for Vision 2020

Chapter Summary 67

• City of the Sun 68

• Megauniversities 70

• Elitist Society 72

Chapter 5: Analysis and Evaluation of Scenarios

Chapter Summary 75

Analysis

• Internal Analysis 76

• External Analysis (Gestalt) 90

Chapter 6: From Scenarios to Strategy

Porter’s Methods 92

Strategic Recommendations

• City of the Sun 94

• Megauniversities 96

• Elitist Society 99

Conclusion 102

Bibliography 104

Appendix 110

Workbook

Research Papers

vi

Scenario Thinking Introduction


IInnttrroodduuccttiioonn

This Report is a result of the course work conducted as part of the Scenario Thinking Course

MN4225. The project task of “Vision 2020” was to develop scenarios for the future of higher

education, with special reference to the University of St. Andrews. The objectives of this study

were to:

• Create a minimum of two and a maximum of four scenarios on higher education in St.

Andrews in 2020

• Provide information to understand the macro-dynamics within which higher education

institutions operate today and possibly in the future

• Establish new insights and assist the client in identifying new opportunities

• Advise the client on moving from established scenarios to the most suitable strategy

• Gain a deeper understanding of the underlying scenario methodology by applying it

Report Outline In order to achieve these objectives we have opted for a rather uncommon order of this report.

Instead of starting with our own approach straight away, we decided to begin with a very general

overview on methodology and a literature review on scenario thinking, in order to generate an

understanding of the methodologies available and the basics of the scenario approach. After

having defined and justified the basic methodological assumptions we chose to work with, we

ventured into the details of our own approach in the second part of the report.


In this chapter we give a general overview of the main methods that exist for future building. We

outline their origin, their respective advantages and shortcomings. Finally, we compare the

various methods with each other and explain why we a) opted for the Scenario approach and b)

chose to follow the St. Andrews approach to scenario building.


This chapter gives an overview of the main scenario literature available. It outlines the major

issues addressed in the appraised literature and provides ideas for further literature expansions.

1

Scenario Thinking Introduction



After having communicated the basics of scenario thinking and how we understand this method,

this chapter establishes a detailed description of our approach. At this point we explain the

scope of the project, the research considered and how we utilised the scenario method in order

to create our four scenarios.

Chapter 4: Scenarios for Vision 2020

This chapter consists of an outline of the three scenarios developed. Three futures termed “City

of the Sun”, “Mega University” and “Elitist Society” are the essence of this part of the report.

Chapter 5: Analysis and Discussion

The scenarios are analysed in the light of internal coherence and external “Gestalt”. One of the

final steps in the scenario building process is described, where the established storylines are

checked on their validity.

Chapter 6: Strategic Recommendations

In this final chapter we introduce the reader into a range of methods suggested by Porter of how

to move from scenario building to strategy formulation. Here, we critically appraise these

methods and give some general guidance on strategic recommendations to our client.

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Scenario Thinking Chapter 1: Methodologies


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Chapter Summary Forecasting • Single point forecasting (only one future)

• Based on quantitative models

• Very popular method during the ‘stable’ 1960s

• Lost much of its credibility in the 1970s

• Highly criticised for its inaccuracy during volatile periods

The Delphi Method • Forecasts made on basis of estimations made by expert panel

• Focus on human judgement

• Process is anonymous

• Aims at consensus between experts without face-to-face discussions

• First used in long-term technology forecasting

• Today expanded to other areas

• Criticism: Estimations are only as good as the experts

Scenario Thinking • Developed in the 1970s

• Created in response to fallacies of forecasting

• Aimed at forming hypothetical storylines of the future

• Vast amount of methodologies exist

• Methods differ only slightly in length, order of procedure and emphasis

• All approaches include similar steps of: problem identification,

analysis, reciprocity analysis and scenario writing

Analysis and Discussion

• Why scenarios?

- Best for long-term predictions - Allows for generation new ideas and creativity - Fosters understanding of environmental dynamics • Why the St. Andrews Approach?

- High similarity between approaches - Clearly defined steps - Comprehensive method - All tools needed for this method were available - Personal preference & location bias

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1. Introduction The future has been a fascinating concept to human kind for thousands of years. This

fascination is inherently based on the understanding that ‘knowing the future’ will allow for

sufficient preparation and avoid unpleasant surprises. In 1985, Michael Porter states that proper

foresight into the future leads to solid strategic decisions, allowing for a competitive advantage

over others that lack the knowledge and preparation. (1) In “The Opium of the Intellectuals”

Raymond Aron brings the idea to the point: "Foreknowledge of the future makes it possible to

manipulate both enemies and supporters." This idea applied to Ancient nations many years ago,

as much as it applies to businesses today. Although the grounds for prophecy remain the same,

the methodology for building futures has changed over time. What used to be the legacy of

fortune tellers and oracles, has now been replaced by a vast number of structured

methodologies, ranging from pure intuition, over social analysis to quantitative methods. Future

building has become a science on its own and today includes a great variety of approaches,

ranging from expert estimations, over statistical calculations to the “Analogy-Method” (or “best

practice Approach”). (2)

In the following chapter we will give an introduction into several selected futurology research

methods and discuss their weaknesses as well as strengths. We divided them into three

categories:

1. Forecasting

2. The Delphi Method

3. Scenario Thinking Approach

While we recognize that this division is somewhat arbitrary to a certain extend, we believed that

the forecasting method best represents an extreme of quantitative, single point forecasting, while

the scenario approach takes a place on the opposite site as being more qualitatively oriented

and offering several solutions. The Delphi method has often been accounted for as a scenario

approach, but we dedicated its own section to it, as we felt that it is an intermediate method in

between the extremes. In the second part of this chapter we will devote some time to the

elaboration of scenario thinking methods, of which we have chosen to outline a representative

selection. Finally, in the third part, we will analyse all futurology methods, as well as we will

compare the scenario approaches, in order to explain:

a. Why we chose to use the Scenario Approach and

b. Why we chose to use the St Andrews Scenario building approach

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1. Forecasting Forecasts are estimations and/or calculations based on the analysis of data that occur in

advance of an event, in order to predict the future. (3) Typical for this methodology is its

quantitative basis and the foreseeing of only a single possible outcome, instead of offering

multiple options. Schoemaker noted in 1991: “A good forecast is ideally the distillation of much

expertise into one number or probability distribution.”

The idea of forecasts, as indicated in the introduction, goes back to the oldest civilisations in

human history. “The ancient Egyptians foretold harvests…from the level reached by the Nile in

the flood season. The Oracles of Delphi and Nostradamus are early examples of often

ambiguous forecasters. In the 17th century Sir William Petty discerned a seven year business

cycle, suggesting a basis for systematic economic forecasts. In the USA a forecasting industry

developed around 1910-1930 but much of it was wiped out by the Great Depression — which it

failed to foresee!” (4)

Especially the notion of economic forecasting re-emerged with the Keynesian revolution,

following the publishing of the Keynesian theory in 1936. (5). After the Second World War

“official forecasts were produced regularly…in the Scandinavian countries, and the practice

spread to the UK in the early 1950s and most other advanced economies by the 1960s.” (4) The

trend was driven by the “enthusiastic optimism on the possibility to solve pressing macro-

economic problems” (5) and the many successes the system could achieve during this time.

Strong consensus regarding the paradigm and the relatively stable environment of the 1950s

and 60s emphasized the strengths of this methodology. It was not until the 1970s that the world

was faced with growing uncertainties, represented in exploding oil prices and a collapsing

Bretton Woods System. First cracks in the theories of forecasting were found, as the failures

mounted and an increasing amount of professionals started questioning the effectiveness of the

models.

Despite its failures in the past, many models still prevail today. “Clements and Hendry (1994)

enumerate a number of (them) including: guessing…; extrapolation…; leading indicators…;

surveys…; analysis ‘in the context of an implicit, perhaps informal model’ (see Wallis, 1989…;

time series models such as the ARIMA class (see Box and Jenkins 1970)…; structural models

(see Harvey, 1989);…and econometric systems…” (6), 1001-1013) Edmund E. Day divided

these models into three general categories of prediction, which appeared useful to the authors to

mention as a guideline: 5



• prediction by analogy

• prediction by formula and

• prediction by analysis

(7). In the first type of model, “it is reasoned that the present period is like a certain period in the

past and that, therefore, the events lying just ahead will be like those followed in the past

period.” (7). Prediction by formula, on the other hand, is probably closest to econometric /

statistical forecasts within which “prediction becomes purely a mathematical process.” (7).

Finally, the prediction by analysis “makes extensive use of quantitative methods but does not

exclude from consideration elements which at least for the present cannot be given a

quantitative expression.” (7)

Although the specific forecasting models differ among each other, they can be said to share

several advantages. One of the arguments in favour of forecasting is their objectivity through

numerical attachments. It is clear, that objectivity can never be accounted for one hundred

percent, and eventually human judgement is necessary in order to give these numbers meaning.

Nevertheless, one can argue that statistics and the results of formulae are as objective as

human creations can get. Secondly, forecasts are often favoured for their simplicity of offering

only one single future for which the decision maker has to ‘decide’ and create a strategy. As

“Gibbs (1972) argues-roughly corresponding to Karl Popper’s position in the Methodenstreit-that

prediction is needed for positions other than positivism. Regardless of one’s stance on that

matter, prediction enables us to choose effectively between alternative and competing theories

with truth claims.” (8). Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry (1995) go beyond the

advantages of forecasting and point out that models fulfil other useful roles such as

consolidating the “existing empirical and theoretical knowledge of how economies function” or

“providing a framework for progressive research strategy and explaining their own failures.” (6).

Some successes of forecasting could indeed be counted. For example Carrter predicted during

“the academia’s golden era the coming glut in graduate programs and PhD production (1965);

Pailey (1952) forecast in the early 1950s that the United States would run out of available

domestic petroleum and become a major oil importer before 1975…” (8)

Nevertheless, for each success, there seems to be at least one forecasting failure, or more. “It is

often said that there are two types of forecasts…lucky or wrong!” (9) P. Wack said in 1985:

“Forecasters seem more often wrong than right.” (47) and, even worse, they seem to be “wrong

when it hurts the most.” (47) Examples of fatal errors have been brought forward by Stephen

McNees (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) who pointed out, among other failures, that

6



“forecasts made from 1973 through early 1974 initially did not foresee the recession and later

misinterpreted the severe recession as an ‘energy spasm’…” (47). Wack added to this: “In the

summer of 1981, the median one-year-head forecasters had predicted 2.1% growth in US GNP

for 1982. Instead, the economy plunged into a deep recession, with a GNP decline of 1.8%.”

(47) Further examples are given by Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry, who point out

that that neither the consumer boom in the 1980s, nor the depths and recession in the 1990s

have been accounted for accurately. (6) In 1966, Paul A. Samuelson ironically pointed out that

"Wall Street indices predicted nine out of the last five recessions!" (19 sep 1966, quoted in the

source of the quotes). Also Lipset, who focuses on social forecasting disasters, points out typical

demographic errors and the failure of economic forecasts to anticipate the Great Depression. He

concludes that “Economists, like the rest of us, are good historians.” (8).

Although projecting past occurrences into future predictions seems to be logical, and in fact

reflects the nature of human learning, it has been highly criticised as a part of most forecasting

methods. Although the future is based on the past, it is widely acknowledged that the future will

never be quite the same. Circumstances change and increasing uncertainty in the light of

growing globalisation make it difficult to adapt old ideas to new environments. “In a volatile and

rapidly changing environment more traditional aids to planning, such as extrapolations of past

trends, are unlikely to produce reliable forecasts in the medium or long term (in Paul Goodwin

2001) (Makridakis and Gaba, 1998) In fact, it has been proven that “all forecasting efforts

irrespective of method have been less accurate in the 1970s than in the 1960s.” Ascher (1978:

76-82) supports this idea – he found that “Comparisons over time indicate that the accuracy of

economic models is not improving (8) – a hint that growing uncertainty in today’s society makes

predictions of only one future difficult. Also implied by Ascher’s studies (1978) and further

supported by Armstrong (1978) is the fact that accuracy of forecasting models does not improve

with the amount of variables used. This indicates that a) the future is too complex to put into a

number of quantifiable variables, disregarding of how many variables we use, and possibly b)

that some variables that would be important to predict the future accurately might just not be

quantifiable and thus not represented in the model. The latter idea relates to the criticism that

forecasting methods, specifically econometric forecasts, cannot capture the “soft” aspects of the

environment, such as believes, culture and relationships between individuals. Reality “often

includes elements that were not or cannot be formally modelled, such as new regulations, value

shifts and innovations.” (Schoemaker 1996) This becomes very clear when looking at computer

simulations – although they forecast, they do not interpret. A process for which human intellect

and, to some extend, human subjectivity is vital. Furthermore, formal forecasting methods are

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accused of creating bias. Edgar R. Fiedler writes in “The three Rs of Economic Forecasting –

irrational, irrelevant and irrevent” (June 1977): "The herd instinct among forecasters makes

sheep look like independent thinkers." This reflects the close networks within which forecasters

of all types ultimately communicate and influence each other. Even the fully automated process

of forecasting can be accused of such bias for that the input into the machine is yet made by the

human mind. Further to this, Richard L. Henshel (1982) claims that: “Institutional affiliation

occasionally produces an overoptimism or overpessimism that coincides with institutional self-

interest.” (8). Another reason for the vast amount of failures of forecasting models commonly

brought forward by defenders of the forecasting system is the idea that forecasting fails when

the model is poorly developed. In “are economic methods useful for forecasting?” Gregory C.

Chow claims that forecasting models fail if designed poorly, if used beyond the short term (for

which they are naturally not designed), if forecasts are influenced by earlier forecasts or if the

amount of “noise” in the market distracts from deducting the “right” data. (10) Edmund E. Day

expands on this argument by stating that the limitations of models stem from using averages and

approximations in appropriately when dealing with forecasts. (7). Otto Eckstein and Paul

Warburg pointed out in addition to this that forecasting methods are based on data that simply

cannot be collected and interpreted quickly enough to prepare for the short interval that resides

between the diagnosis of an economic crunch and an upper turning point in the economy. (11)

In conclusion to the latter authors mentioned, forecasting is a valid method to deal with the

future, but still needs further procedural improvements in order to achieve higher accuracy.

The argument in favour and against the forecasting methodology is certainly a long one and can

by no means be fully covered in this paper. The above outline should have given an indication of

the benefits and pitfalls of the method to some degree useful to our purpose. The forecasting

method is an important one and has been adequate and helpful on many occasions.

Nevertheless, the method experienced a crisis during the 1970s, when an increasing amount of

forecasts rendered into being useless, if not harm, due to faultiness. In response, a whole range

of new methodologies were developed to use as an alternative to the seemingly outdated model

of forecasting.

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2. The Delphi Method “The Delphi method is a systematic interactive forecasting method (12) based on a “structured

process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of

questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback (13). The objective of most Delphi

applications is the reliable and creative exploration of ideas or the production of suitable

information for decision making. (14) Typically, the method is applied in order to generate

forecasts of a specific, single dimension future issue, as well as it is practiced to build consensus

and stimulate the formation of new ideas. (15)

The Delphi Method originates in early US military defence research. (16). In 1944, General

Arnold asked Theodor von Karman to construct a report for the US Air Force, with the aim to

study the future of technology capabilities and their use in the military context. (12). Various

studies were approached, all based on traditional forecasting methods, which we described in

the first part of this chapter. During these attempts, “…the shortcomings of traditional forecasting

methods, such as theoretical approach, quantitative models or trend extrapolation in areas

where precise scientific laws have not been established yet, quickly became apparent.” (12) It

was not until 1946, that General Arnold initiated the establishment of the RAND Corporation (an

acronym for Research and Development), in the attempt to study “the broad subject of inter-

continental warfare other than surface.” (14). The RAND Corporation is an American Think Tank

that used to be under contract to the Douglas Aircraft Company until it separated from the

organisation in May 1948, and became an independent institution. (17) “ ’Project Delphi’ was the

name given to (that) study, starting in the early 1950s…” (15) In 1959, Helmer and Rescher, two

researchers from RAND, published “The Epsitemology of the Inexact Sciences” – a paper which

argued that the there are fields of study that have not yet developed to the point of having

scientific laws and thus the testimony of experts is permissible. (14) Following this, Olaf Helmer

and Norman Dalkey together developed what is known as the Delphi method today. Based on

the paper that Helmer had produced earlier, this new method was one of the first to “recognise

human judgement as legitimate and useful inputs in generating forecasts.” (14)

Naturally, Delphi was first applied in the field of technology forecasting. One of the earliest

reports which fully utilised the Delphi method, was published by Gordon and Helmer in 1964.

The “Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study” (18) “assessed the direction of long-term

trends in science and technology development, covering such topics as scientific breakthroughs,

population control, automation, space progress, war prevention and weapon systems” (12) up to

the year 2000 and beyond.

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The Delphi application was later expanded to other areas, such as long-term forecasts of

marketing opportunities, the evaluation of market potential for new products (19) and public

health issues (13.). Interestingly, in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the method gained

popularity in educational forecasts, as it was used by the “Educational testing Service when they

conducted a planning study for a university to be built in the Midwest” (20) or by the School of

Education at the University of Virginia. (21) “It was also applied successfully and with high

accuracy in business forecasting. For example in one case reported by Basu and Schroeder

(1977) Delphi method predicted the sales of a new product during the first two years with

accuracy of 3–4% compared with actual sales. Quantitative methods produced errors of 10–15%

and traditional unstructured forecast methods of about 20%.” (12)

The name “Delphi” obviously refers the “most revered oracle in ancient Greece” (14) and serves

as a synonym for the expert panel that is being interviewed. (19) “The authors of the method

were not happy with this name, because it implies "something oracular, something smacking a

little of the occult” (12) “whereas, as a matter of fact, precisely the opposite is involved; it is

primarily concerned with making the best you can of a less than perfect kind of information.” (14)

The Delphi method is based on a multileveled interviewing process that involves the collection

and evaluation of estimations individually provided by a panel of selected experts. The process

is anonymous and coached by a facilitator, who introduces the panel into the concept,

categorizes answers and composes new questionnaires. The Delphi method is essentially

aimed at consensus building about an opinion or view, usually without allowing for a face-to-face

debate between the experts.

Delphi builds on three key characteristics:

1. Structuring of information inflow

2. Feedback to the participants

3. Anonymity for the participants

The first of these characteristics refers to the structured development of questionnaires, the

collection of answers and their categorisation by the facilitator into relevant and irrelevant

content. The second idea of feedback is an essential part to the Delphi method. It describes the

process of making all answers available to the expert panel and allowing participants to

comment on these answers. Each expert has the chance at this point to revise his or her

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previous statement. Finally, the anonymity of each participant is guarded in order to avoid group

pressure. (12)

Today, we distinguish between two Delphi methods, which slightly differ in procedure:

1. The Standard Delphi Method (“The paper and Pencil Version”) (16)

2. The Broadband Method (“The Delphi Conference”) (16)

In the standard method, “forecasters form a panel of experts to study a particular question, but

with a carefully designed sequence of questionnaires replacing direct debate.” (22), This is

where the standard method differs from the broadband method, in the sense that the latter is an

extension of the standard version, where the relevant topics are being discussed in an open-

round among the experts previous to suggesting estimations individually. Naturally, the

Broadband method jeopardizes an amount of anonymity in favour of leading towards consensus

within an open debate.

While Fowles suggests a very detailed ten step method (23), the typical Delphi process be

summarized into six simple steps:

1. The facilitator explains the aim of the project to each participating expert and distributes

the first questionnaire

2. Each Expert completes the questionnaire individually

3. The facilitator analyses the results. If estimations differ significantly, these are noted on a

new questionnaire

4. The new questionnaire is handed to the experts for individual revision

5. Steps 2-4 are repeated as often as necessary to reach the consensus aimed for or until

the facilitator accepts the results

6. The average of the last collection of estimations from the experts summarises the

consensus of all expert estimations and represents the final estimation

The Broadband Method includes two additional steps. After the first and the third step,

conferences will be arranged in order to discuss the matters among the expert panel before

individual answers are given. (24 and 25)

There are several prerequisites that have to be considered to allow for the optimisation of the

Delphi method process. One of these refers to the recruitment of experts. On the one hand, the

chosen experts should understand the aim of the Delphi method thoroughly (26), be well

11



informed about their area and capable of providing feasible estimates. (16) On the other hand, a

situation should be created where “each member of the panel is an expert on some aspect of a

problem, but no one is an expert on the whole problem.” (22) The number of experts to include

in the panel is thereby flexible and depends on the project itself. “Experiments by Brockhoff

(1975) suggest that under ideal circumstances, groups as small as four can perform well.” (14)

Nevertheless, common is a panel group of 50-100 experts. (27) Finally, the experts’ commitment

to contribute throughout the entire process until completion of the project is essential. (27) A

second important prerequisite is the anonymity of each expert, which should be guarded in order

to avoid the disadvantages of open group discussions, such as influences exerted by dominating

participants on others. A final aspect to consider throughout the Delphi procedure is the number

of times steps 2-4 should be repeated. Research suggests that typically three rounds are

sufficient. New arguments are seldom developed beyond three rounds and participants’

motivations decreases.

The Delphi method is especially useful when scientific objectivity fails and the judgement of

experts (based on both, intuition and knowledge in the field of observation) is seen as the only

tool to close that gap. This method is also preferred when the availability of experts is limited and

not all can be gathered together at one specific point in time. Thus, the Delphi method is often

referred to as the „method of last resort.“ (Linstone, Harold A.: „The Delphi Technique“, in: 23

But this is only one of the many benefits Delphi can offer. “…There have been several studies

(Ament, 1970; Wissema, 1982; Helmer, 1983) supporting the Delphi method.”(14) One of the

most obvious advantages of Delphi naturally evolves out of the method. Its focus on anonymity

(at least in the standard method) allows the interviewees to state estimations that are unpopular

or revise what they have stated at an earlier time, without jeopardizing their credibility. (28) The

protection of anonymity also avoids potential pressure from outside to confirm to a belief, either

exercised by a group or an individual. (24) Wissema (1982) emphasises this point and states

that “the Delphi method has been developed in order to make discussion between experts

possible without permitting a certain social interactive behaviour as happens during a normal

group discussion and hampers opinion forming.” (14) Despite a strictly separated interviewing

process, the estimations of others are visible and can be reflected in the new estimations made

by the individual – an aspect that permits the development of a result that comes close to

consensus. (16) Mattingley-Scott pointed out a few convenience advantages, including the fact

that experts can participate in the process from anywhere in the world, that there is potential to

reach rapid consensus and that the coverage of a wide range of expertise at once is possible.

(15) Lastly, the Delphi method enjoys a high degree of accuracy and its results coincide more

12



closely with reality than quantitative forecasts. Studies from Milkovich et al. (1972) (29) and Basu

and Schroeder (1977) (30) confirm these findings.

Nevertheless, the perception on the overall usefulness of this method is mixed. Initially, a

common argument against Delphi was its inability to account for multiple factors in forecasts.

“This point is supported by Gordon and Hayward (1968) who claim that the Delphi method,

based on the collation of expert judgement, suffers from the possibility that reactions between

forecasted items may not be fully considered.” (14) Future outcomes were considered

completely separate from each other, which is why several extensions have been made to

account for this deficit. “This point is supported by Gordon and Hayward (1968) who claim that

the Delphi method, based on the collation of expert judgement, suffers from the possibility that

reactions between forecasted items may not be fully considered.”

(14) “Still the Delphi method can be used most successfully in forecasting single scalar

indicators.” (12) Furthermore, many argue that Delphi is more opinion than fact, and thus lacks

scientific reasoning. Opinions reflect the human bias and estimates made by the panel were

considered of low reliability, as claimed by Makridakis and Wheelright (1978). Consequently, the

quality of results of the sequence are only “as valid as the opinions of the experts who made up

the panel.” (Martino, 1978 in (14)) The same critique, probably one of the most extensive Delphi

critiques brought forward to this point, was made by Sackman in 1974. (14)

Another source of ambiguity is the evaluation of the questionnaire by the facilitator and the

possibility of manipulation, a deficit pointed out by Martino in 1978 (14). Many are also cautious

of the large expenditure of time, and consequently costs, entailed by this method. (24 and 25)

Despite many successes, the Delphi method has also been criticised for poor accuracy.

Armstrong (1978) has written one of the more elaborate critiques on this issue. There is an

ongoing debate on whether such failures are due to the poor application of the method, rather

than weaknesses of the method itself – a fallacy Goldschmidt (1975) warns to be aware of. (12)

The Delphi method is certainly an interesting one. It introduced the idea of the inclusion of

human judgement into forecasting, but nevertheless, it remains focussed on the quantification of

human subjectivity and specific forecasts. Thus, we identified this method as an intermediation

between the early forecasting model and the scenario approach. The latter shall be introduced in

detail in the next section.

13



3. Scenario Thinking

Like the Delphi Method, Scenario Thinking is a method that was developed in response to the

poor performance of forecasts in the 1960s/70s. Nevertheless, its name and origin is much

older. The term “Scenario” itself, comes from the theatrical drama background, where several

scenes typically merge into a storyline. (Martelli 1996) Essentially, the concept of scenario

thinking does not deviate much from “creating a story”. “Although the term ‘scenario’ has many

meanings (see Ducot and Lubben, 1980)…(it can be defined as) ….a script-like characterisation

of a possible future presented in considerable detail, with special emphasis on casual

connections, internal consistency, and concreteness.” (Schoemaker 1991) It is essentially a

process of aggregating knowledge about the present in order to understand the possibilities that

might evolve in the future. Already Lao Tzu, a Chinese Poet stated that "Those who have

knowledge don't predict. Those who predict don't have knowledge." (31) Unlike many

forecasting methods, scenarios are neither prophecies nor predictions of the future, but

hypotheses about how the future could evolve. With this in mind, the aim of the scenario method

is to establish a minimum of two scenarios of how the world could evolve within several years

from the present. The task requires in depth research of the targeted theme and the macro

environment and tends to reward those who utilize this method with new insights and an in depth

understanding of the subject matter.

Scenarios date back to the American school of military planning of the 1950s. (32) & (33)

Nevertheless, the first to coin the term and use the technique in the context of planning

processes was Herman Kahn, when he was still part of the RAND Corporation (the same

institution that established the Delphi Method). He defined this technique as “a hypothetical

sequence of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and

decision points.” (34) Kahn established the first Scenario Institute (Hudson Institute) and strongly

advertised the idea of looking at matters from different perspectives - “Thinking about the

Unthinkable.” (Kahn 1980s) During the 1960s and 1970s, Kahn did an enormous amount of

research in order to find an alternative methodology to the forecasting method, which began to

be widely criticised at that time. While the macro environment of the 1960s was still fairly stable

and easily predictable “The future (today) isn’t what it used to be!” (Believed to be a comment

made by an IBM executive concerning predicted future trends in personal computing around

1992 – in 48) Following the oil crisis of the 70s and 80s, as well as the collapse of the Bretton

Woods system, especially the economy became a difficult area to forecast. Increased

globalisation and thus interdependence between states also increased uncertainty in the political 14



arena – a process that is still ongoing today. The era was a fortunate one to establish an

alternative method to formalise forecasting – one that quickly spread around. According to

Linnemann and Klein (1985) Over 50% of the Fortune 500 companies used scenarios for

strategic planning. Today, the approach is still popular with big companies like Royal Dutch Shell

and General Electrics, but also with smaller companies and increasingly with the government.

Also the OECD applied scenarios on “infrastructures” before. (32)

Taking into account the great amount of scenario approaches that has been suggested since the

first development of the method in the 1970s, many have tried to categorize scenarios into easily

identifiable sections. Antonio Martelli (1996) describes a separation on several levels. One of the

divisions is based on the building logic of scenarios. This approach divides scenarios upon their

building logic into:

1. Explorative scenarios: which move from the present into the future and

2. Anticipatory Scenarios: which move from the future to the present

Another distinction by building logic can be made between:

1. Descriptive Scenarios: which describe a hypothetical future

2. Normative Scenarios: which go beyond description and include occasional judgement

A second way to distinguish scenarios suggested by Martelli is not by their building structure, but

by the method used to build them. This is a very difficult task, because there are many methods

that carry the same name and differ in process, and many methods that differ in names but

explain the same process. Often, it is difficult to draw the lines in between and categorize them

as they might overlap or be designed for different purposes. In general, similarities between the

methods seem to outdo the differences. Therefore, we decided to refrain from categorizing

scenarios by their methodology and instead chose to select a few scenario methodologies we

perceived as important and reflective of the variety of scenario methodologies available. While

we recognize that a complete reflection of all the options is not possible, we feel that our

selection will give an appropriate understanding of the scenario processes, their advantages and

disadvantages. The scenario methodologies we decided to discuss in detail in this report are:

A Morphological Analysis

B Intuitive Logics

C The French School

D The St. Andrews Approach

15



A. Morphological Analysis The term “morphology” derives from the ancient greek word “morphe”, which menas the study of

shape or form. “It is concerned with structure and arrangement of parts of an object, and how

these ‘conform’ to create a whole or Gestalt.” (35) Traditionally, morphological analysis is known

in biology, where it refers to “the form and structure of organisms without consideration of

function” (36) or in linguistics, where it refers to “the study of the structure and form of words in

languages.” (37) The concept of “Morphological Analysis” has been expanded into the area of

problem solving more than 35 years ago and, within this new context, can be defined as “nothing

more than an ordered way of looking at things." (38.) As a problem solving technique, this

analysis “was designed for multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable problems where causal modelling

and simulation do not function well or at all.” (39) Its aim is to explore all the possible solutions to

a particular technical problem and simplify seemingly non-reducible complexity of a problem, not

by reducing variables, but by narrowing down the number of possible solutions. (40) Zwicky, the

founder of the method stated in 1948: “Our aim is to achieve a schematic perspective over all of

the possible solutions of a given large-scale problem. Naturally, not all of the solutions which we

are thus led to visualize can be carried out individually in all detail. Because of unavoidable

limitations on time and means a choice must obviously be made, and preference must be given

to some specific solutions.” (38) Today, the method is applied to a wide array of fields and often

used in the field of future research.

In the problem solving context, the Morphological Analysis was formally developed and first

applied by Fritz Zwicky, a Swiss-American astrophysicist and aerospace scientist based at the

California Institute of Technology (CalTech). (49) There are several reasons that justify the need

for the development of such a method, of which Tom Ritchey (2002) identified three that we will

outline in the following paragraphs. He claims that “analyzing complex policy fields and

developing futures scenarios presents us with a number of difficult methodological problems”

(35) that were not addressed properly by previously developed methods. Firstly, as was

mentioned in the critique of quantitative forecasting earlier in this chapter, there are many factors

involved in the analysis of problems that are not necessarily quantifiable, such as intuitive

actions, human believes, affections and the like. According to Ritchey, “this means that

traditional quantitative methods, causal modelling and simulation are relatively useless.” (41)

Secondly, a growing uncertainty makes it difficult to break down complex ideas of the future into

simple models. Thirdly, Richey argues that “the actual process by which conclusions are drawn

in such studies is often difficult to trace - i.e. we seldom have an adequate "audit trail" describing

the process of getting from initial problem formulation to specific solutions or conclusions.” (35)

16



Conclusively, out of the shortcomings of previous methods, an alternative method to the formal

quantifiable approach was needed to address the deficits. While Richey does not completely

argue against formal forecasting and claims that it should be used as an aid to judgement, he

sides with Zwicky and defends the ides that “at a certain level of complexity (e.g. at the social,

political and cognitive level), judgment must often be used -- and worked with -- more or less

directly.” (35) Zwicky understood the Morphological Analysis as a perfect alternative to past

methods, which - “extended by the technique of cross consistency assessment (CCA) – (served

as) a method for rigorously structuring and investigating the internal properties of inherently non-

quantifiable problem complexes, which contain any number of disparate parameters.” (35)

It is claimed that, already before the method was formally established, it has been widely used.

Lucien Gerardin 81973) even claims that it find its origin with Ramón Lull, who lived between

1235-1315. (42.) Zwicky never denied this fact. The examples of earlier applications he brings

forward include Lagrange and the introduction of generalized coordinates as well as the

formulation of general laws of classical mechanics; or the work of Faraday, who explored time-

sequences of cause and effect and approached the matter by studying “the interrelation between

coexisting aspects of nature.” (38). Zwicky made clear that this method was applicable in a

whole range of scientific areas, such as physics, biology, botany, geology and also in sociology

as much as in statecraft. (38).

Zwicky first applied his method to the aerospace industry, in order to analyze the structure of jet

engine technology. (43). The primary use was thus in technological forecasting and new product

ideation (43) but its use diversified quickly. Zwicky later applied it to a great variety of areas,

ranging from astrophysics to jurisdiction and political matters. He was the founder and president

of the Society for Morphological Research and from 1933 until his death in 1974 he constantly

advanced the morphological approach. (44 & 35).

But not only its founder constantly extended the method and applied it to new areas. ”More

recently…(it has been) applied by a number of researchers in the U.S.A. and Europe in the field

of policy analysis and futures studies (Rhyne 1981, 1995a, 1995b; Coyle 1994, 1995, 1996;

Ritchey 1997, 1998; Stenström & Ritchey 1999; Ritchey, Stenström & Linell 2000; Eriksson

2002; Ritchey, Stenström & Eriksson 2002; see Reference List and Project List). The method is

presently experiencing somewhat of a renaissance, not the least because of the development of

small, fast computers and flexible graphic interfaces.” (35)

17

http://www.swemorph.com/references.html

http://www.swemorph.com/projects.html



Morphological Analysis is based on the idea that complex problems can be broken down into

simple entities, not by reducing variables, but by eliminating illogical solutions. Zwicky

emphasises in particular that not the variables should be narrowed down, as everything is

interrelated and it is impossible to know in advance which of these variables will have a great

impact in the future. He states that: "... within the final and true world image everything is related

to everything, and nothing can be discarded a priori as being unimportant." (45)

In his article “Morphological astronomy”, Zwicky explains in detail the procedures of the

morphological method on the example of Astronomy. Five major steps in this process can be

summarized as follows: (43)

1. Formulation and definition of the problem

2. Identification of all parameters

3. Construction of a multidimensional matrix

4. Analysis and Evaluation of all possible solutions

5. The solutions that seem logically most feasible and suitable are selected and practically

applied

In the first stage, the problem to be addressed is identified. For simplicity, we might want to take

the example of the weather. Let us assume that we wanted to establish futures for the weather

development tomorrow. In the second stage, all variables need to be addressed. For the

weather, we can identify variables such as temperature, time of the year and location. In the

third stage, each of these variables will take a place in one of the rows of the multidimensional

matrix. Zwicky created a box of 75 cells, as shown in figure 2.3.1. On the temperature line we

would place temperatures in a possible range from -20°C to + 50°C. For the time of the year we

could separate into months and the locations could be split into regions or continents along the

third bar of the matrix.

(please see next page)

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A 3-parameter Zwicky box containing 75 cells or "configurations" (45.)

In step number four, all solutions would be listed and evaluated. For example, one solution could

be -25°C, in the summer in Florida. This would obviously be a solution that would seem illogical

and thus be eliminated. Following this procedure, there will be a selection of feasable solutions

by the end of the process. This selection can then be applied in practice. Giving an example of

weather forecasting is by no means the best example to bring forward, but should be seen here

for illustrative purposes only. The one thing that can be illustrated with this is the simplicity this

method works with by using “two common principles of creativity: decomposition and forced

association. The problem is broken down into component variables and possible values

identified for each. The association principle is then brought into play by ‘banging together’

multiple combinations of these values.” (46)

Necessarily this generates a vast amount of solutions the human mind is not capable of grasping

all at once without such a method. At the same time it offers opportunities to create new ideas

that one might not have accounted for previously. Thus, the morphological technique essentially

allows for two key elements: An Analysis and deeper understanding of the present and the

future as well as the generation of completely new ideas.

The latter aspects mentioned in the last paragraph definitely count towards the advantages of

this method. Other strengths include providing “key insights into new research directions.” (43)

By giving such a wide range of possible solutions this method can generate new knowledge, not

only new ideas. Beyond that it promotes a systematic, very structured analysis of highly-complex

issues, which supports clarity of a matter. The ‘totality’ of the method through its all-embracing

matrix has been praised by several supporters such as Bailey (1994) and Doty & Glick (1994).

19



(35) Ritchey also points out that “It encourages the investigation of boundary conditions and it

virtually compels practitioners to examine numbers of contrasting configurations and policy

solutions. Finally, although judgmental processes may never be fully traceable in the way, for

example, a mathematician formally derives a proof, MA does go a long way in providing as good

an audit trail as one can hope for.” (35)

Of course, choice is a highly valued outcome of the Morphological Analysis. Nevertheless, there

is a danger of “information overload” and an overabundance of possibilities. So it happens that

was has been praised by some as an all-embracing method, has been criticised by other for an

exaggerated structure and too much of the German ‘Gründlichkeit’ (thoroughness). (35) Another

perceived disadvantage is the involvement of human judgement. Although this is also a valued

aspect of this method, it also allows for human bias and, moreover, human error to get involved.

(43) The outcomes can be weak when wrong variables have been chosen or judgement on the

feasibility of solutions has been made on wrong assumptions. Again, as with all methods, it has

to be kept in mind that, if executed poorly, disappointing or even wrong results might be the

consequence.

The Morphological approach has in many parts successfully closed the gaps that traditional

forecasting methods left to be filled. Despite existing problems with this method just mentioned,

it has been applied on many occasions and been specifically useful in opening the mind to new

ideas and opportunities. Although it carriers a seemingly complicated name, its strength lies in

simplicity - by breaking complex ideas into its parts and rearranging it in ways the human mind

could otherwise not grasp all at once. Through the multidimensional matrix it gives ideas

structure, furthers understanding and, moreover, makes developments easily traceable.

B. Intuitive Logics Intuitive Logics represents one of the earliest developments in scenario thinking and “is often

associated with the experiences of some of the forerunners in scenario building.” (Antonio

Martelli, 1996) It was first described by Pierre Wack (1985) and developed by SRI, Global

Business Network, and Shell. It is often defined as the best suited way to use all available

information about the future; it generates new ideas and it can help identifying the underlying

patterns. On the other hand, intuitive logic is strictly connected with the experts who work on the

scenario, the techniques are assembled together in the most varied way and consequently it is

difficult to check the validity of the particular approach adopted from a scientific point of view. 20



In 1967 Shell initiated the ‘Year 2000‘ study, a project to study the business environment that

would exist in 2000. The study revealed that there would be a discontinuity in the oil industry, the

historical trajectory of year-on-year expansion of the industry could not continue to 1985, let

alone 2000. As a consequence of this revelation, a number of Shell companies were tasked in

1969, to look ahead to the year 1985 in an initiative known as the ‘Horizon Planning’ exercise.

Pierre Wack, a planner at Shell Francaise, one of the participating companies in the exercise,

was familiar with the scenario approach developed by Kahn, and decided to experiment with the

technique using France as the testing ground. The initial attempt at scenarios was not a success

in that it resulted in what Wack [54] labelled ‘first generation scenarios’ which were useful in

gaining a better understanding of situations, but provided no insights beyond what was already

known. At the same time however, it did result in the realisation that “we had discovered a useful

search tool” and “the technique had promise”. Meanwhile the Horizon Planning Initiative had

confirmed the findings of the Year 2000 study which prompted the decision in Shell to

experiment with scenario planning as a potentially better framework for thinking about the future

rather than continuing to rely on conventional forecasts which were likely to be wrong in the face

of a discontinuity [57, 58]. The initial scenarios developed in 1971 on an experimental basis and

presented to senior management in 1972, proved extraordinarily successful in that they correctly

identified an impending scarcity of oil - 6 - and an ensuing pointed increase in oil prices; shortly

thereafter scenario planning was extended throughout the company.

Coincidently GE began to experiment with scenarios at about the same time as Shell and in

1971 produced four alternative scenarios of global and US economic and socio-political

conditions in 1980. However unlike Shell, there is very little in the public domain regarding GE

and scenarios, and Shell has become the most celebrated corporate exponent of scenarios, its

definition of scenarios and process methods have become the de facto “gold standard of

corporate scenario generation” [51] which is why the intuitive logics methodology is sometimes

referred to as the ‘Shell approach’ to scenarios.

Numerous variations of the intuitive logics model have since been published, each identifying a

number of discrete steps, varying from five [56] to twelve or more [57], depending on what

features of scenarios are highlighted or ignored. Some practitioners have elaborated and

branded proprietary scenario developmental models, examples of which are Future Mapping, an

approach used by Northeast Consulting Resources Inc. based in Massachusetts [50]; TAID (an

acronym for ‘Tracking, Analysing, Imaging, Deciding, Acting’), an approach developed at Kairos

Future in Sweden [58], and Idon Scenario Thinking, an approach using visual tools developed by

21



the Idon Group in Scotland [59]. At the same time, there have been efforts to develop simpler

and less resource intensive models which focus on scenario planning as a process of learning,

as is demonstrated in the work of Mercer [67] and van der Heijden et al [60] with MBA students

in UK Business Schools.

In fact, when it comes to the intuitive logics model, a large part of the ‘methodological chaos’

referred to in the introduction arises from the observation that there are almost as many ways of

developing scenarios as there are practitioners in the field. However, while the intuitive logics

methodology has received most of the attention in the literature, almost in parallel with it a

further ‘school’ of scenario techniques involving the probabilistic modification of extrapolated

trends evolved out of the work of Gordon, Helmer and others at the RAND Corporation in the

USA. This school of scenario planning incorporates two distinct methodologies

• Trend-Impact Analysis

• Cross-Impact Analysis

Trend-Impact Analysis (TIA)

The TIA model developed in the early 1970’s in the field of futures research, and is most often

associated with the Futures Group based in Connecticut. According to Gordon [61], TIA evolved

out of the fact that traditional forecasting methods relied on the extrapolation of historic data

without considering the effects of unprecedented future events. The concept of TIA is a relatively

simple one designed to modify simple extrapolations and in essence, involves four steps:

• Historical data relating to the issue being examined is collected;

• An algorithm is used to select specific curve-fitting historical data and extrapolate this to

generate ‘surprise-free’ future trends;

• A list of unprecedented future events which could cause deviations from the extrapolated

trend is developed; and

• Expert judgments are then used to identify the probability of occurrence of these

unprecedented events as a function of time and their expected impact, to produce adjusted

extrapolations

Although Gordon [61] states that “the TIA method is used frequently”, references to TIA in

context of scenarios, are relatively few in the literature.

22



Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA)

The CIA model was developed by Gordon and Helmer in 1966 at the RAND Corporation as a

forecasting game for Kaiser-Aluminium, and subsequently programmed by Gordon and

Hayward. A range of causal and correlation cross-impact variants have since been developed by

researchers, along with a number of proprietary methodologies including IFS (Interactive Future

Simulations – previously known as BASICS) developed by the Battelle Memorial Institute [51],

INTERAX (Interactive Cross-Impact Simulation) developed by Enzer at the University of

California, and SMIC (French acronym for Cross Impact Systems and Matrices) developed by

Duperrin and Gabus [61].

As with TIA, the CIA methodology attempts to evaluate changes in the probability of occurrence

of events which might cause deviations in the naïve extrapolations of historical data. The

processes underlying the two methodologies are similar but CIA incorporates an additional layer

of complexity in that rather than accepting the a priori probabilities attached to future events by

experts, it attempts to determine the conditional or proportional probabilities of pairs of future

events given that various events have or have not occurred, through cross impact calculations.

The premise of CIA is that it is essential to take cognizance of the interdependencies of events

in order to move from a system of “unprocessed initial probabilities” to a set of “corrected

probabilities” [52].

Although TIA and CIA began life as essentially standalone probabilistic forecasting tools, they

generate a range of alternative futures rather than a single point naïve extrapolation of historical

data, and when combined with judgments and narratives about the events in these futures, they

constitute scenarios.

Last but not the least, in accordance to Antonio Martelli (1996), he stated that “it could be said

that as a method intuitive logics is a residue: what is not morphological analysis, trend impact or

cross impact analysis is intuitive logics.” Indeed, in compare with the other formal methods on

building scenario, intuitive logics is the method for scenario which does not reply on a

predetermined formalized procedure. Instead, intuitive logic gives the scenario builder a wider

range of freedom on choosing and adapting them to the peculiarities of the case in hand as it

allows the use of virtually all the research and/or forecasting techniques available to them. As

Joan Robinson said “a person with a toolbox among which he or she can choose the tools most

useful to perform one particular task, Intuitive logics reflects the idea that methodology is

essentially a choice among techniques.”

23



C. The French School The US has always been known as the pioneering country for scenario work. However, their

scenario work was almost exclusively in line with public policy and planning. Meanwhile, in

Europe, the French were well-known for having been the first to have systematically studied the

"scientific and political foundations of the future" using scenario techniques. At the same time

that Khan was developing scenarios for the military in the 1950s, Gaston Berger a French

philosopher founded the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives where he developed a scenario

approach for long-term planning, which he named “Prospective Thinking” or “La Prospective”.

This approach reportedly emerged as a consequence of the repeated failure of ‘classical’

forecasting approaches [52].

Indeed, Berger concerned with the long-term political and social future of France and the

underlying philosophical premise of his work was that the future is not part of a "predetermined

temporal continuity" but something which is to be created and which can be "consciously

modelled to be humanly beneficial". The primary objective of the Prospectives Centre was to

formulate an acceptable scenario-based methodology for developing positive images or

‘normative scenarios’ of the future and to lead these images into the political arena where they

could serve as a guiding vision to policy makers and the nation, providing a basis for action [29;

30]. Although Berger died in 1960, the Prospectives Centre flourished and by the mid 1960s it

had begun to apply the La Prospective methodology to a range of public issues including

education, the environment, urbanisation and regional planning, the first reported application

being the study of regional futures by an interdepartmental government organization known as

DATAR (the Office for Regional Planning and Development) [64].

Between the 1960s and 1970s, Pierre Masse and Bertrand de Jouvenel continued the

pioneering work of Berger and as the Director of national economic planning in France in the

1960s, Masse introduced the use of the prospective scenario approach in the development of

the 4th French National Plan (1960-1965) and subsequent national economic plans have

purportedly continued to use prospective scenario techniques [62]. Meanwhile de Jouvenel, the

founder of the Futuribles Group (Association Internationale de Futuribles) which became a

catalyst in the development of the international futures movement, joined the Prospectives

centre in 1966. De Jouvenel [66] postulated that it was the particular view of the future held by

small but dominant political groups within a nation, which determined how the future of that

nation unfolded. This could be avoided, he argued, by encouraging futurists to act as catalysts in

24



articulating idealistic images of what the future could be like and which could serve as a blueprint

for the nation. The thrust of de Jouvenel's work therefore was in using scenarios to construct

positive images of the future or ‘scientific utopias’ and then specifying ways in which these could

be brought about to improve the life of ordinary people [65]. Since the 1970s, the work of the

French pioneers has been expanded on by Michel Godet, who has spent many years “honing

the tools of La Prospective” [53].

There are numerous methods for designing scenarios that combine various qualitative and

quantitative methodologies to different degrees. At one extreme, the collective systems

developed by the Futuribles Group and Godet have since come to be known as the French

school of La Prospective; however the term covers a range of concepts, and Godet [64]

suggests that the term is best translated as “strategic scenario building”. The structural scenario

method aims at constructing representations of probable futures as well as the formal rules and

routes that lead there and using a mixture of facilitated group interaction and formal quantitative

techniques (i.e. prospective workshop, structural analysis, analysis of actor’s strategies,

morphological analysis, expert inquiries).The three main elements emphasized by the French

school, La Prospective, build the core of most scenario exercises (Godet 1987: 22):

1. Identification of the key independent and dependent variables

2. Analysis of actor roles and strategies

3. Construction of plausible scenarios on the basis of assumptions about key variables and

relationships between them

In the mid-1970s, Berger and Godet began to develop their own largely mathematical and

computer-based probabilistic approach to scenario development, which is suggested to “stand

apart because of its more integrated approach and use of mixed systems analysis tools and

procedures”, including morphological analysis for scenario building, Micmac for identifying key

variables, Mactor for analysis of actors’ strategies and Smic-Prob-Expert for determining the

probability of scenarios (Micmac, Mactor and Smic are all acronyms for specific computer

programmes developed by Godet). This structural analysis model, called MICMAC, is based on

the concept of influence and dependence between issues and classifies issues as dominant,

relay, dominated and autonomous. An interesting category of tools consists of actor-issues

methods. These basically consider the environment as a game between multiple actors that try

to influence the issues that govern its evolution, either by mobilizing their resources to directly

influence the issues outcome or indirectly by influencing (i.e. negotiating with) other actors.

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There are a few actor-issue methods which stem from various disciplines and provide different

information. The MACTOR method [GODET01] originates from a systemic perspective and

provides an aggregate overview of the system under study through a number of computations

on several input matrices.

The French School emphasizes on identifying the key independent and dependent variables. It

is an inevitable fact that the identification between the independent and dependent variables is

very crucial as only the independent uncertainties are the scenario variables on which scenarios

are based. Only independent variables are an appropriate basis for constructing scenarios

because they are the true sources of uncertainty, while dependent variables are resolved once

assumptions about the independent uncertainties have been made, and thus become part of

each scenario. Therefore, with the identification of the true independent variables, scenario

planners could build up scenarios in which they could see them internally coherent and plausible

with each other.

Moreover, with the construction of plausible scenarios on the basis of assumptions about key

variables and relationships between them, it is obvious that with the close relationship between

the underlying assumption variables, it could easily prove that the upcoming scenarios are

fulfilling the crucial scenario principle on internal coherence. Internal coherence is important as

the resulted scenario will turn out to be useless if there is any contradiction between the key

underlying variables. Therefore, the French school scenario benefits us on identifying the close

relationship between the key assumption variables and making sure the resulting scenarios are

internally coherent.

However, the French School Scenario’s methods and tools have their origin in the 1960s and

1970s. Therefore, the underlying assumptions and methods of building scenarios may be out-of-

date and are no longer suitable for the current situation. Moreover, they involve, to a varying

degree, expertise, creativity and interaction. Indeed, it is a less formal approach including

interactive methods such as futures workshops and conferences. However, it seems to be less

efficient than the more formal quantitative methods. It is because there is no common standard

or progress on how well the workshop is going and it is very uncertain for the efficiency for

teamwork. Numerous problems may arise, such as communication problems, technical

problems and inter-personal problems and they will harm the efficiency and progress of

scenario-building.

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All in all, scenario development in France was more narrowly focused on the socio-political

foundations of the future of France itself [63]. There has since been a diffusion of scenarios into

the business community, however scenario work in France continues to have an important role

in public sector planning. Meanwhile although the La Prospective approach to scenarios

incorporates certain features of the Intuitive logics methodology, it is a more elaborate, complex

and more mechanistic rather than an openly intuitive approach to scenarios development,

relying heavily on computer-based mathematical models which have their roots in TIA and CIA.

Thus while Godet (2000) characterises La Prospective as a “blend of tools and systems

analysis”, it is to a large extent, a blending of the intuitive logics and probabilistic modified trend

methodologies.

Although as can be seen from the foregoing, the La Prospective school has been in existence

for almost as long as the intuitive logics and probabilistic modified trends schools, it has received

considerably less attention in the literature on scenario planning.

D. The St. Andrews Approach The St. Andrews approach to scenario creations has been established by the Management

institute of the University of St Andrews. Since 1989, it has been applied by the institute on over

50 projects for some 40 client organisations. (Grinyer 2000) We decided to discuss this method

in detail in this paper not only because it is the method we eventually chose to adhere to in order

to establish our own scenarios, but also because it is an approach “which shares many features

with others of the genre” and thus seems to be reflective of a wide range of existing methods.

Like many scenario methodologies, also the St. Andrews approach evolved from the scenario

planning at Shell International. Despite significant similarities between the methods, the St

Andrews approach has developed beyond the initial stages of the Shell approached and thus

also shows great differences. Today, the Management institute of the University of St Andrews

identifies eight main stages in their scenario building approach:

1. Scoping and diagnosis of the Objective

2. Data Collection

3. Analysis of Data: Drivers & Trends

4. Ranking by Certainty/Uncertainty and Importance/Unimportance

5. Identify key drivers and their developments into the future

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6. Creation of Scenarios

7. Selecting Signposts and Indicators

8. Facilitating the transformation from Scenarios to Strategies

In the first stage of the process, the group meets with the client and establishes a general scope

of the project. Through a dialogue with the client, concerns and specific problems should be

identified and noted. The aim of the project has to become clear at this stage and all future work

should be directed towards this aim. During this initial meeting, also the breadth of the project in

terms of time, location and topic should be identified as well as the potential limits the group

might face and abilities it can exploit.

The second stage describes the process of data collection. This can be done via primary

sources through interviews (group or individual interviews) and secondary resources, such as

via the internet and through books. The St Andrews methodologies assumes the utilisation of the

“Construction Alternative Futures Explorer” (CAFÉ) developed by Prof. Colin Eden and Prof.

Dave Langford. This concept implies the application of eight principles, by which data should be

selected. According to these principles, information is useful if it reflects:

• Events (or suggested events) which will have repercussions over a number of years.

• A Paradox for the industry

• Political, Economic & Societal Change which will lead to change in attitudes and demand

characteristics

• Technological breakthroughs

• Changes in Volume or structure of a market

• A major player showing signs of strategic change

• The resolution of complication of current strategic issues for the industry

• Analysis of past events or deductions about future events

It is advisable at this stage to split data in topic sections. Often the PESTLE categorisation into

political, economic, Socio-demographic, technological, legal and environmental data is preferred.

In the third stage, drivers and trends are identified and clearly separated from final results. In

most cases, an analysis on the Macro and the micro level is advisable at this point. In this sense,

macro usually means the global context, while micro is more focussed on the industry within

which the organisation operates and the organisation itself. Approximately ten key drivers are

then identified and ranked by importance.

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Stage four is the part where the key drivers that were previously identified are put into order of

importance/unimportance and certainty/uncertainty.

In step five a number of drivers, mostly those that are important and fairly uncertain, will be

selected to analyse in more detail. Each driver will now be inserted into a mental grid which

shows the development of the driver from the past over the present into different futures.

Step six is used to combine all these different futures into a selection of coherent and plausible

scenarios. The St. Andrews Method advises to create at least two and a maximum of four

scenarios.

In stage seven, the created scenarios are checked on their coherence, transparency and

plausibility by choosing signposts and indicators that support the assumptions made in the

scenarios.

Step eight, unlike a lot of older scenario approaches, suggests an indication of how to move

from scenarios to strategies. After all, scenario building is a method to create feasible strategies.

Thus, this phase should be used to match the strategy and resource base with the scenarios

and close any gaps that might have occurred.

The St Andrews method can be praised as well as criticised on the basis of the same reasoning

brought forward in favour and against the entire scenario approach. We will elaborate on these

in detail in the next part of this chapter.

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Analysis and Discussion Having outlined above a selected range of the major futurology methods that have been used to

prepare for strategic decision making in the past, and having looked at a few selected scenario

methodologies in detail, we will now engage into the analysis and discussion of these methods.

Some approaches of analysis have already been anticipated in the sections above by outlining

advantages and disadvantages of the methodologies. In the next section, we will discuss their

usefulness in reality in two sections. The first section will compare futurology methods with the

Scenario approach, and explain why we chose to concentrate on Scenario methodology. The

second section will discuss differences between the different scenario methodologies outlined

above and explain why we feel the St. Andrews method is the most suited one for our purposes.

In summary, we aim to answer the following questions:

a. Why Scenarios?

b. Why the St. Andrews Approach?

A comparison of Futurology methods: Why Scenarios?

Despite differences among the several scenario methods, they all share certain characteristics

that define scenarios as what they are. The characteristics have been widely appraised as well

as criticised. The Scenario approach counts many advantages, most of them over the

forecasting method. One of the greatest, is its ability to “accept uncertainty and make it part of

the reasoning.” (p. wack 1985) Unlike forecasting, it calculates for surprises and expands the

scope of possibilities to such an extend that uncertainty is widely embraced within the method. It

gives not only one possible outcome (which can either be wrong or right) but two or four possible

outcomes, which can be interlinked with each other and thus cover a greater part of possible

futures. The amount of information scenarios can take into account is another positive aspects of

the approach. Schoemaker stated in 1995: “Scenario Planning stands out for its ability to capture

a whole range of possibilities in great detail.” (Schoemaker 1995) Many other methods only

manage to account for a limited amount of variables and thus cannot grasp the whole complexity

of the problem. A very common example is the sensitivity analysis often usede in forecasting,

which only accounts for a single change in variables. Moreover, through the scenario method

complexities cannot only be captured, but also be put into simple and meaningful connections in

forms of easily understandable storylines. “I have fond that scenarios can effectively organise a

variety of seemingly unrelated economic, technological, competitive political and societal

information and translate it into a framework for judgement – in a way that no model could do.”

30



(Godet 2000) Above all, scenario thinking expands the mindset and encourages to “think the

unthinkable”. P. Wack called it “the gentle art of re-perceiving.” (p. wack 1985) By creating

different scenarios, possibly together with a diverse group of people from different backgrounds,

does not only give insights, but also expands the personal understanding of the matter. The

scenario approach has often been criticised by forecasters for its subjectivity and possible bias

in the process. We claim the opposite. Although human judgement is certainly subjective, we

believe that this subjectivity is essential in order to make sense of the world. The best example is

a computer simulation that may create thousands of possible solutions within minutes, but lacks

the ability to interpret and attach common sense to the numbers. The forecasting method

compares to scenarios in a similar manner. Above the contextual benefits, van der Heijden

(1994) even claims that “…the presentation of scenarios as stories of how futures might unfold,

with the focus on causality, is likely to be attractive to managers.” (van Heijden, 1994) This,

again, emphasises that scenarios are easy to understand and “provide a context that gives an

easy and natural explanation why ‘actors’ behaved in the way they did.” (Paul Goodwin 2001)

Lastly, the strengths of the scenario method are best exhibited in its numerous successes, some

of which include:

• Royal Dutch Shell in the 1960s/70s which prepared for the eventuality of the oil crises in

1973 and 1981 (wack 1985)

• The Anglo-American Cooperation of South Africa that explored Africa’s future by using

scenarios (Stinter 1987 in Schoemaker 1996)

• The Dutch central Planning Bureau which issued wide-ranging twenty-five-year global

scenarios (De Jong and Zalm, 1992 in Schoemaker 1996)

There is usually a very clear cut line between forecasting and scenario thinking. Nevertheless,

the line becomes more difficult to define between the Delphi method and scenarios. Many

categorize the Delphi method as a scenario method. We only agree to a certain extend. In

opposition to scenarios, the Delphi method is not applied in a team effort – more likely, it is

anonymous and estimations are noted under more isolated circumstances. As mentioned earlier,

a ‘forced’ consensus can be the result of this method – an aspect that is definitely not typical to

the scenario process. Instead of fostering creativity and engaging into a vibrant dialogue, Delphi

allows this dialogue only to a certain extent and rather inhibits a great amount of creativity or

“thinking the unthinkable” to get involved. Furthermore, the scenario method benefits of some

type of naivety brought into the process when non-experts discuss about a problem. Again, this

fosters new ideas by allowing for an unbiased approach.

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However, it should be noted at this point that the scenario approach is by no means the solution

to everything. They definitely have their pitfalls, especially when applied wrongly, and certainly

do not fit to well to all tasks. For example, for short-term outlooks, the forecasting method is

usually preferred and generates quicker and more accurate predictions. In opposition, the long-

term outlook is better defined by the scenario method.

In sum, the reason why we chose to pursue the scenario method for this project (despite having

been asked to do so by our client), is a mix between the general benefits of this method and its

suitability for this particular project: to generate an understanding of the environmental dynamics

surrounding the St. Andrews University and to establish a long-term outlook on its possible

futures.

Comparison of Scenario Methods: Why the St. Andrews Approach?

There is hardly another futurology approach that counts as many sub-divisions of separate

methods as the scenario approach. We have chosen six, which we described in more detail in

the previous section of this chapter. In the following table we have summarized the

methodologies in order to make it easier for the reader to compare the steps:


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Morphological Analysis

Intuitive Logics

Trend Impact Analysis

Cross Impact Analysis

The French School (Godet)

St. Andrews Approach

1. Formulation and definition of the problem

Define the problem

Collect historical data on topic

Collect historical data on topic

Analyze problem and define system under examination

Scoping and Diagnosis of a focal issue or decision

2. Identification of all parameters

Collect all available information about the future

Use algorithm to select curve-fitting historical data

Use algorithm to select curve-fitting historical data

X-ray the institution to be examined (know how, product lines etc.)

Data Collection adhering to the CAFÉ principles

3. Construction of a multi-dimensional matrix

Identify patterns and trends

Generate ‘surprise-free’ future trends

Generate ‘surprise-free’ future trends

Identify key variables of the institution and the environment

Data Analysis: Drivers and Trends

4. Analysis and Evaluation of all possible solutions

Establish Scenarios

Develop list of future events which could cause deviations from the extrapolated trend

Develop list of future events which could cause deviations from the extrapolated trend

Understand dynamics of institution and environment (Strength and weaknesses etc.)

Rank by uncertainty and importance

5. The solutions that seem logically most feasible and suitable are selected and practically applied

Use expert judgement to identify probability of event occurrence

Use expert judgement to identify probability of event occurrence

Reduce uncertainties (e.g. interviews with experts) and draw out most likely scenarios

Project futures for key drivers

6. Produce adjusted extrapolations

Determine conditional probabilities of future events through cross impact calculations

Check on coherence

Build scenarios

7. Produce adjusted extrapolations

Assess strategic options

Select signposts

8. Make strategic choice

Use scenarios to establish strategies

9. Complete plan of action

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Several differences can be identified between the methods. Firstly, the order is not exactly the

same for all methods, after the initial stage of analysis has been passed. This emphasises the

non-linear nature of most scenario methods that allow for the interchange or repetition of stages

where necessary. Secondly, some methods are more detailed and developed than others. For

example, compare intuitive logics, a very early and reasonably informal approach, to the St.

Andrews approach, a more detailed and developed method. Thirdly, focus on specific stages

varies between the methods. While the cross-impact analysis devotes many steps to the

evaluation and re-evaluation of established trends through the help of expert knowledge and

conditional quantification models, the morphological analysis does not imply such a complex

system of re-evaluating established trends. His point links into a fourth difference, which is

defined by the use of other methodologies within the scenario methodology. For example, by

referring to experts, the French school utilises a method within the process of scenario building

that is somewhat similar to the Delphi approach. Cross impact analysis, on the other hand, is a

good example for the utilisation of numerical models within scenario thinking. A fifth, major

difference between the methods, regards the “official ending point” of scenario building. For

example, the intuitive logics and the trend impact methods, end their scenario building process

with the writing of narratives, while the French School and the St. Andrews approach go even

further by integrating an implementation stage “from scenarios to strategy” in its last scenario

stage.

Whatever scenario method, or their categorisations, one might decide for, a similar pattern with

similar goals will be found throughout. On the basis of a wide range of available methods, Wilson

(1978) summarised the main steps of the scenario building procedure into: Problem

identification, sector analysis, reciprocity analysis and scenario writing. (68) It is realistic to say

that these simplified stages are reflected in most, if not all, scenario approaches at one point or

the other.

Since these methods appear so similar in their essence, it seems to be a matter of personal

preference and the individual task of application, rather than a question of wrong or right, when it

comes to choosing the method. For example, if the task is to generate new ideas, one might

prefer the morphological approach; if it is about developing creativity and insight, one might want

to rely on a more research based method such as the French school. Another interesting

example is the “Industrial Approach” developed by Michael Porter. In his article “Industry

Scenarios and Competitive Strategy under uncertainty” Michael Porter argued that:

“Macroscenarios, despite their relevance, are too general to be sufficient for developing strategy

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in a particular industry.” (Porter 1985) In contrast to the other methods, he designed a scenario

building technique that is specifically tailored for the industrial sector. It is aimed to be utilised in

order to achieve a competitive advantage over industrial competitors, by analysing how “the

industry structure under each scenario determines, and possibly shifts the sources of

competitive advantage”. (Porter 1985) Thus, should our primary objective be the achievement of

such competitive advantage, we might decide for Porter’s approach. Indeed, all methods will

achieve these goals in one way or another, so personal preference and access to the tools

needed to pursue the method should guide the final decision on the appropriate method.

In our case, we decided for the St Andrews approach for several reasons. Firstly, we enjoyed

the benefit of applying the scenario method in a location, where the St Andrews approach was

developed and where we could benefit from direct guidance on the procedure from the

Management Institute at St. Andrews. Secondly, it appealed to us because of its simplicity,

without being shallow. Although it is easily understandable, it embraces a great variety of steps

that seemed most logical to us and we were able to pursue on the basis of tools available.

Finally, we believe that it is a very general method that is representative of many scenario

approaches and leaves much space for individuality and personal input – all assets we tried to

utilise fully throughout our work. We will elaborate on the details of our approach in chapter

three.

35

CChhaapptteerr 22 LLiitteerraattuurree RReevviieeww

Scenario Thinking Chapter 2: Literature Review


CChhaapptteerr 22 AAnn AAnnaallyyssiiss ooff SScceennaarriioo LLiitteerraattuurree

Chapter Summary

On Scenario definitions

• No consensus on the definition of Scenarios

• Important definitions include those by:

- Schoemaker (1991)

- Becker (1989)

- Michael E. Porter (1985)

- Schwartz (1998)

Scenario thinking as a strategic planning tool

• Scenarios are useful strategic planning tools:

- Pierre Wack (1985)

- M. GODET (2000)

- Schoemaker (1991)

- Gareth Price (1995)

- Ian Wilson(2000)

- Van Der Heijden (1996)

- Michael Porter (1985)

• Main ideas on scenarios include:

- “First-Generation-Scenarios” by Pierre Wack (1985)

- “Scenarios as Test-bed” by Ian Wilson (2000)

- “Decision Scenario” by Pierre Wack (1985)

Potential Fields of interest for future research

• A clearer definition on the scenario time-scale (are scenarios a static

picture at a certain point in time, or are scenarios showing the

evolution of circumstances leading to a specific future?

• More literature on the transformational phase between scenarios and

strategy implementation

36



Introduction

A vast amount of literature on scenario thinking has been published at the latest since the

successful Royal Dutch/Shell scenarios at the beginning of the 1970s, either in the form of case-

studies, publications on scenario techniques or scenario typologies. The literature shows that

scenario planning is used across many types of organisations and industries now, and that

different approaches to the scenario building process have been developed. Furthermore, the

functions of scenarios have changed over time. Scenarios are now widely seen as a tool for

strategic planning, instead of solely giving a future outlook. What are scenarios and why are they

useful in our quest to support dialogue processes? Indeed, scenarios offer an alternative

environment in which today's decisions may be played out. They are neither predictions nor

strategies: they are descriptions of possible futures with an emphasis on events and trends.

Scenarios are designed to highlight opportunities and risks inherent in specific strategic issues.

In the following literature review, first of all, a short discussion will be prevailed on the definition

of the term scenario on various viewpoints. After having a clear picture on the definition of

scenario thinking, light will be shed on the exploration on the notion of scenario planning as a

useful strategic planning tool and its application in practise. It will also explore the question of

how we applied scenario planning on our project, the “University of St. Andrews Vision 2020”.

Finally, we will work on indicating the potential fields of interest for future research.

Definition of Scenarios

The term scenario is used in many different fields. In fact, it originated from the field of theatre,

where it is a description of the play’s outline. Besides, it is also used for the field of statistics, in

military language, and even movies. In accordance to the Oxford Advanced Learner’s dictionary

(1989: 1128) there are two definitions for the term ‘scenario’: 1) “written outline of a film, play,

etc. with details of the scenes and plot” and 2) “imagined sequence of future events”. The latter

definition describes how the term scenario is used in the sense discussed here. Scenarios do

not try to predict the future; rather they “present alternative images of the future.” (Schwartz,

1998: 6) Probably the first to use the term scenario in connection with planning was Herman

Kahn, the father of Scenario thinking. He gave the following definition: “Scenarios are narrative

descriptions of the future that focus attention on causal processes and decision points”. (Kahn &

Wiener, 1967)

However, there is no common, single definition as to what scenarios in strategic planning are. A

series of definitions, often merely variations of one and the same, is available in most literature.

37



Michael E. Porter (1985), in his paper “Industry Scenario and Competitive Strategy under

Uncertainty, defined scenarios as: “an internally consistent view of what the future might turn out

to be. By constructing multiple scenarios, a firm can systematically explore the possible

consequences of uncertainty for its choice of strategies. Moreover, scenarios are “a script-like

characterisation of a possible futures presented in considerable detail, with special emphasis on

causal connections, internal consistency, and concreteness” (Schoemaker, 1991: 549 – 550),

“plausible descriptions of future conditions with which the organisation could be faced” (Becker,

1989: 41), “a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which

one’s decisions might be played out” (Schwartz, 1998: 4), “a narrative description of a consistent

set of factors which define in a probabilistic sense alternative sets of future business conditions”

(Huss, 1988: 378).

With the summary on the definition of scenarios, it is obvious that scenarios take uncertainty into

great consideration when they try to draw a picture on what may happen in the future. Indeed,

the future is so unstable and it has become a moving target and there is no single right

projection can be deduced from past behaviour. It is an inevitable fact that the better approach

on facing uncertainty is to accept it, try to understand it and make it part of our reasoning.

Undoubtedly, uncertainty is no longer a temporary deviation from a reasonable predictability;

however, it is a basic structural feature of the business environment. Without appreciating the

importance of uncertainty, scenarios will lose their power and there will be no big difference from

forecasting.

Over the past few decades, there were numerous hot debates over the usefulness and

differences between scenario planning and forecasting. Obviously, scenarios always win the

battle on their usefulness. Pierre Wack (1985a) mentioned: “it is fashionable to downplay and

even denigrate the usefulness of economic forecasting. The reason is obvious: forecasters seem

to be more often wrong than right.” “ Traditional planning was based on forecasts, which worked

reasonably well in the relatively stable 1950s and 1960s. Since the early 1970s, however,

forecasting errors have become more frequent and occasionally of dramatic and unprecedented

magnitude.” Also as Shell’s former group managing director, Andre Benard, commented:

“Experience has taught s that the scenario technique is much more conductive to forcing people

to think about the future than the forecasting techniques we formerly used.” Moreover, Paul

Schoemaker (1991) stated that “forecasts are often wrong especially when dealing with the

macro environment. Scenario, instead, try to highlight the reasoning underlying a forecast, with

explicit attention to sources of uncertainty. Although this will normally complicate their use in

38



decision making, their value remains if circumstances change. The more stable the game, the

more valuable forecasts are; the more unstable the environment, the more scenarios may be of

help.” It can easily be seen there are lots of problems for using forecasting as a tool to foresee

our future. For example, forecasting assumes that it is possible and useful to predict the future. It

is the closely related to the rationalist assumption that there is on right answer and the art of

strategy is to get as close as possible to it. However, it may be impossible to find such “one

single right answer” and companies are always losing money and capital to do so. Also,

forecasting is done by experts, away from where the decisions are being made. That means that

the decision maker who receives the result of the forecasting activity does not know the

underlying thinking process and the uncertainties that have been taken into account to produce

the prediction. The danger to the decision maker derives from this disconnection. If he decides

to use the forecast he does not know what risk assumptions enter his decision process. He is no

longer in a position responsibility on to the expert, who is not accountable.

In our project “Vision 2020”, to a certain extent, we focus on Schoemaker’s (1991) definition

“scenario is a script-like characterization of a possible future presented in considerable detail,

with special emphasis on casual connections, internal consistency, and concreteness.” Indeed,

we rather focus on understanding the forces that would eventually compel an outcome; less on

figures and more on insight. Also, we emphasise the casual connections between the driving

forces which would ultimately generate different scenarios. When we discuss the driving forces

for our project Vision 2020, we take both macro and micro factors into consideration and choose

the 10 most appropriate drivers in finality. Then we come to think about their level of importance

and certainty and we finally choose four important but uncertain drivers as our scenario-building

blueprint. Great effort was worked on testing their casual connections and proving they are

internally consistent.

Scenario building as a strategic planning tool

Clearly scenario planning is more than inventing stories about the future. Its importance spreads

across a wide area of organisational cognition. Including to create new concepts and language

in the organisation; to consider the strength of the organisation and its characteristics; and most

importantly, to develop strategy for organisation and help them on decision-making. Some

authors (Becker, 1989; Jungermann & Thuring, 1987, Coates, 2000) make a distinction between

scenarios as a picture of the future at a certain point in time, and scenarios showing the

evolution of circumstances leading to a specific future. Those authors consider the latter as

preferred with regards to the decision making in strategic management. Pierre Wack(1985) and

39



Ian Wilson (2000) share the same idea on viewing scenario as a testing tool for organizational

decision-making. Pierre Wack (1985) proposed the idea on “first –generation” scenarios. They

are the scenarios to quantify alternative outcomes of obvious uncertainties. The goal of these

exploratory first-generation scenarios is not action but understanding. Their purpose is to give

insight into the system, to identify the predetermined elements, and to perceive connections

among various forces and events driving the system. They help decision maker to generate the

“Decision” scenario which “acknowledge uncertainty and aim at structuring and understanding it

– but not by merely crisscrossing variables and producing dozens or hundreds of outcomes.

Instead, they create a few alternative and internally consistent pathways into the future. They are

not a group of quasi-forecasts, one of which may be right. Decision scenarios describe different

worlds, not just different outcomes in the same world.” For Ian Wilson (2000), he stated “another

relatively straightforward role for scenarios is to act as “test beds” to evaluate the viability of an

existing strategy, usually one that derives from traditional single-point forecasting. By playing a

company-wide or business unit strategy against the scenarios it is possible to gain some insight

into the strategy’s effectiveness in a range of business conditions, and so to identify

modifications and/or contingency planning that require attention.” It is obvious that scenario

could be a very useful testing tool for decision-making and it leads us to a better understanding

on what is going on in the macro environment and so, with the testing ability, we could focus on

the most appropriate drivers and reach to the “Decision scenario” refer to Pierre Wack (1985).

In the early stage of our project, we generated the first-generated scenario as the test bed and to

see if they are relevant to our Vision 2020. To a large extent, it is a very useful tool for us to

understand the environment and the underlying factors affecting the future of University of ST

Andrews in 2020. But for the use of first-generated scenario, we could not have come to the

decision-scenarios that create a few alternative and internally consistent pathways into the

future.

Many others (Wack, 1985b, Schoemaker 1991, van der Heijden, 1996) see the description of

pathways to different possible futures as an essential part of the scenario itself. “Good scenarios

present more than an end-state description, but especially highlight the dynamics” (Schoemaker,

1991: 550). For Pierre Wack (1985b), “scenarios serve two main purposes. The first is

protective: anticipating and understanding risk. The second is entrepreneurial: discovering

strategic options of which you were previously unaware. This latter purpose is in the long run

more important.” Also Wack conceived “Scenarios are like cherry trees: their fruit grows neither

on the trunk nor on the large boughs but rather on the small branches. The tree needs the trunk

and boughs to grow the small branches.” In accordance to Van Der Heijden 1996, “ Scenarios

40



are intended to be representative of the ranges of possible future developments and outcomes

in the external world. What happens in them is essentially outside our own control.” Also, from

Kees Van Der Heijden and Peter Schutte (2000), they stated that “it is important to remember

that scenarios are not an end in themselves. They are instruments, i.e. means to achieve

objectives.

In our project “University of St Andrews, Vision 2020”, we conceived scenarios as tools for the

description of pathways to different possible futures. For example, we think of the both extreme

possibility for the evolution of university education. One extreme is the very high level of

technology development; the virtual university is one of the possibilities in the future, where

students are not necessary to go to the campus. Instead, they attend their lecture and tutorial on

the internet. On the other hand, the possibility should not be overlooked on the privatisation of all

university and no government funding in the United Kingdom tertiary educational system in the

future. Indeed, with the use of scenario thinking, we see the description of pathways to different

possible futures and so we can generate different scenarios not base on a single driver, but to

put the most appropriate important but uncertain drivers together and to generate the relevant

scenarios.

Furthermore, here, we will draw on the definition of scenarios - showing the evolution of

circumstances leading to a specific future. However, all authors emphasise that scenarios need

to be plausible and internally consistent to be accepted and useful. In accordance to Gareth

Price (1994) on his paper “Scenario Planning as a Discipline – which any organisation can use.”,

he stated that “There is a criterion which any scenario is required to meet – that of internal

consistency. Incredible bounds do not occur in the real world unless there is a real logic behind

them, which with understanding can provide revealing insights. Van Der Heijden (1996) stated,

“Scenario must be internally consistent. That means that events within a scenario must be

related through cause/effect lines of argument which cannot be flawed.” Also, Michael Porter

(1985) mentioned consistency of assumptions. He stated that “A scenario should be an internally

consistent view of what future industry structure could be. Internal consistency is partly ensured

by separating the scenario variables from the dependent ones. Another critical requirement,

however, is the consistency of the assumptions made about each scenario variable with each

other.” Porter even has a deeper discussion on the kind of uncertainty that may have great

impact on the internal consistency. Porter divided uncertainties into independent uncertainties

and dependent uncertainties. “Those elememts of structure whose uncertainty is independent of

other elements of structure. The sources of the uncertainty may be inside the industry or outside

41



the industry.” On the other hand, “Those elements of structure that will be largely or completely

determined by the independent uncertainties. In chain saws, for example, the future level of

advertising on television is quite uncertain but will be primarily a function of the size of casual

user demand. Casual users are receptive to television advertising while professional and farm

buyers are best reached through specialized magazines.” It is obvious that independent

uncertainties are the scenario variables on which scenarios are based. Only independent

uncertainties are an appropriate basis for constructing scenarios because they are true sources

of uncertainty. Therefore, in our project Vision 2020 all the uncertainties that we concern on are

independent uncertainties and they are the true sources on constructing scenarios. Moreover, It

is an inevitable fact that internal consistency is very crucial in our scenario-building process.

Again, we make sure our scenarios are all internal consistency in our Vision 2020 project

especially when we focus on the macro university environment as it is possibly the case that

some of the scenarios will come to be internal inconsistency when some of the drivers combine

together to generate the scenarios.

On the question how to use scenario, there are lots of answer from various authors and they try

to explain the most efficient way to use scenario as a strategy-planning tool. In brief, they

suggest on distinguishing the pre-determined element from the uncertainty and we should keep

a close eye on the pre-determined factor while emphasising the uncertainty. Gareth Price (1995)

defined “Pre-determined elements are those which can be estimated with considerable certainty,

often the consequences of events which have already happened. These are mostly the ‘babies

who are already born’, though health and migration start to bring in some elements of

uncertainty. Uncertainty grows when considering their eventual education and skill levels, and

then again relating to the technologies that might be available for them to use.” It is very obvious

that pre-determined factors are very curial and could be conceived as the starting point on

building a scenario. The further development of scenario is decided by the uncertainty and the

driving force evolved.

Indeed, most of the scenario constructing models suggests us to define the pre-determined

factor in the early stage of scenario building. For example, in the scenario constructing model by

Schoemaker (1991) , he placed “Make a list of current trends, or predetermined elements that

will affect the variable(s) of interest. Briefly explain each, including how and why it exerts an

influence. Constructing a diagram may be helpful to show interlinkages and causal relationships”

at second stage out of the total ten stages. Also, M. GODET (2000) include a Scenario Planning

model in his paper “The Art of Scnearios and Strategic Planning: Tool and Pitfalls”. He placed

42



“Key Variable internal-external pre-determined factors” at the second place as well. It is

undoubtedly that it is necessary for us to define the pre-determined factors in the very stage of

our scenario building process. In our project VISION 2020, we define the pre-determined factors

for the future of University of ST Andrews in the very early stage. We found that the pre-

determined factors are very useful especially to be the backbone of building up our specific

scenarios.

In regard on the usefulness and effectiveness on the notion Scenario planning as a useful

strategic planning tool. Numerous authors got the common viewpoint on what should be done if

they would like to use scenario planning as a useful strategic planning tool. In a briefly summary,

scenario planning is only useful if we can change the mental map of the decision makers and

their perception on what should be done in the future. Pierre Wack (1985a) stated that

“Scenarios help managers to structure uncertainty when (1) they are based on a sound analysis

of reality, and (2) they change the decision makers’ assumptions about how the world works and

compel them to reorganize their mental model of reality.” Also, from Pierre Wack (1985b), “

Scenarios deal with two worlds: the world of facts and the world of perceptions. They explore for

facts but they aim at perceptions inside the heads of decision makers. Their prupose is to gather

and transform information of strategic significance into fresh perceptions. When it works, it is a

creative experience that generates a heartfelt “Aha!” from your managers.” Indeed, it happens

when your message reaches the microcosms of decision makers, obliges them to question their

assumptions about how their business world works, and leads them to change and reorganize

their inner models of reality. Unless we influenced the mental image, the picture of reality held by

critical decision makers, our scenarios would be like water on a stone.

Therefore, in our project VISION 2020, it is our task to design scenarios so that the decision-

makers for the university policy would question their own model of reality and change it when

necessary, so as to come up with strategic insights beyond their minds’ previous reach. To do

so, we had a comprehensive research on the university’s mission and goal in the future. It is

important to understand their goal and strategy on achieving their goals as it would provide us a

better source on how could we build up the scenario and to influence the mental image and

microcosms of the managers.

In addition, regarding on what should we avoid to do on scenario building, there are lots of

suggestion from various authors who try to help us to stay away from falling into the scenario

trap. Ian Wilson(2000) suggest “we do not develop a complete strategy for each of the

43



scenarios, and then by some means – maybe by applying the test of discounted cash value –

select the one that appears to give the greatest promise of success and profitability. The second

thing that we do not do is assign probabilities to the scenarios and then develop a strategy for

the “most probable” one.” Pierre Wack (1985b) pointed out “Decision scenarios describe

different worlds, not just different outcomes in the same world. Never more than four.” Besides,

Michael Porter stated “Attaching probabilities to scenarios is beset with problems of bias and

conventional wisdom. It is important to find unbiased ways to assess the probabilities of

scenarios, based on the underlying causal factors of each scenario variable. Managers’ own

implicit probabilities should be indetified and confronted if they vary widely or contradict those

indicated by industry analysis.

With the very precious advice and suggestion from the authors above, we do not assign any

probability on our scenarios nor rank their importance in relevant. Also, we built up four

scenarios which is the maximum number suggested by Pierre Wack in our project. Their

suggestion is very useful and we can put equal effort on every scenario and to concentrate on

the main four in order not to waste time on the less appropriate ones.

In fact, there are some factors affects the effectiveness of scenario planning and the main factor

is the bias in our mind. Brad MacKay and Peter McKiernan (2004) pointed out the kind of bias

and their effect on scenario planning. Firstly, “The hindsight bias is a phenomenon that takes

place after the occurrence of an event. It leads people to overestimate the likelihood that they

could have predicted its outcome before its occurrence as easily using foresight, as it was using

hindsight after its occurrence.” Secondly, “Creeping Determinism is a phenomenon that can lead

unknowingly to minister-pretation, self-fulling prophecies, self-sealing processes and escalating

error through an inherent human tendency to gravitate towards determinist explanations of

history that result from the process of retrospection itself.” Thirdly, “The foresight bias, results

from a shallow perception of history. It occurs when we take for granted perceptions and

conceptions of what we think ‘we know we know’ about the past.” As bias built up in our mental

map and it is hardly to erase or change it, therefore, to keep it on the minimum level, we should

build up the scenario just base on what we think we think is the mode of the world. We must

open our mind to all possible alternatives in the future.

On the other hand, scenario is not perfect at all and the following is a brief discussion on the

weakness of Scenario. MacKay and McKiernan (2003) point out that “… scenario thinking

failures are beginning to enter into the discourse. Scenarios are not a panacea for difficulties in

44



understanding the future and can they be vulnerable to faulty reasoning.” This point has carefully

been made to us by the authors during our scenario workshop, strongly identifying scenarios as

a tool for managers as opposed to a strict method. Schoemaker (1995) names a number of

criteria to determine if “final scenarios are any good”. These are “relevance, internal

consistency… generically different futures… description of an equilibrium or long term state”. We

have followed a similar pattern as described earlier Also, Price (1994) provides us with the

knowledge that “relatively few (organisations) have achieved sufficient success that scenario

planning has become an ongoing component of their management systems.” Although we could

reply that it is not scenarios alone which enable success. Indeed, the very definition of success

is here questioned as we may inquire whether success may be measured as a function of the

informing of the Executive; or rather as a function of its implementation whilst not forgetting that

any implementation may be ruined due to internal difficulties which are out with the scenarios

intended goals and parameters for success.

Potential fields of interest for future research

With the rapid development of scenarios, some new theory such as “Scenario Thinking” and

“Scenario Planning” built upon the basic ideas of Scenario creations. In accordance to Brad

MacKay and Peter McKiernan on their paper “The role of hindsight in foresight: Refining

strategic reasoning.” (2004) They defined “Scenario thinking as a methodology for improving

foresight recognizes that in dynamic environments the future cannot be known, but it can be

understood. Traditionally scenario thinking has been referred to as scenario planning. There is,

however, increasing recognition that the process of building scenarios has value that goes

beyond that a mere planning tool for improving foresight. For this reason, the term scenario

planning has been changed increasingly to scenario thinking in the literature, to reflect its role in

cognitive processes and the importance of individual reasoning techniques in interpreting the

past, considering present events and processes and perceiving the future.” It is necessary to pay

attention to the further development of Scenario as the more specific of the further development,

the larger the difference between the use of scenario and the bigger the gap between the way

we try to foresee the future.

On the other hand, more work should be done on the definition on the time-line of the scenario

building. Should we conceive scenarios as a picture of the future at a certain point in time? Or

are scenarios showing the evolution of circumstances leading to a specific future? Although

there are some discussion touch on the time-line of scenario, it is not yet enough to find out the

answer. Furthermore, there is very little literature explaining the development from Scenarios to

45



the implementation of strategies – a field that can certainly be elaborated more. Therefore, for

the further research on any potential field, effort should be dedicated not only to existing ideas

and theories, but also to further developments and the specific fields of Scenarios.

46

CChhaapptteerr 33 TThhee aakkvvaa AApppprrooaacchh

Scenario Thinking Chapter 3: The akva Approach


CChhaapptteerr 33 TThhee aakkvvaa AApppprrooaacchh

Chapter Summary Our Approach • We chose to use the St. Andrews Method

1. Defining the

Project Scope

• The Scope of the project has been defined by topic (fairly narrow topic:

the future of higher education), time (15 years) and geography (main

focus on Scotland)

• Limitations of project include: time, access to resources, cognitive

limits

2. Data collection • Mainly secondary data from the internet and the library

• Data was divided into the following categories: Political, Economic,

Socio-Demographic, Technological, Legal, Environmental and

Education

3. Analysis of Data • Main drivers and trends have been chosen and elaborated

4. Ranking of data • The ten most important drivers were ranked by importance first and

then inserted into a two-by-two matrix, where they were ranked by

degree of certainty and importance

5. Projection of key

drivers

• The three key drivers (technology, university funding and international

integration) were individually projected into different futures

6. Scenario building • Previous projections were aligned and merged into three scenarios:

City of the sun, Mega universities and elitist society

7. Signposts and

Indicators

• Scenarios were checked on internal coherence and external fit

(“gestalt”)

8. From Scenarios to

Strategies

• Future strategy recommendations

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The akva Approach: St. Andrews Method

Scenarios cannot be established ad-hoc. They have to be built as part of a process and

systematically prepared. We have seen in the first chapter, that there are various approaches to

scenario thinking, of which we have outlined a selection of methods, including the St. Andrews

method. In the same chapter, we already explained why we chose this method above the others.

In this chapter we will go a step further and elaborate on how we utilised the St. Andrews

approach in order to build our scenarios.

As explained in chapter one, the St. Andrews Method can be summarized in the following steps:

1. Scoping and diagnosis of the Objective

2. Data Collection

3. Analysis of Data: Drivers & Trends

4. Ranking by Certainty/Uncertainty and Importance/Unimportance

5. Identify key drivers and their developments into the future

6. Creation of Scenarios

7. Selecting Signposts and Indicators

8. Facilitating the transformation from Scenarios to Strategies

These individual steps have been approached within the course context of the St. Andrews

University Management Class on Scenario Thinking in the following manner:

Timeline 13 Oct 14 - 27 Oct 28 - 29 Oct 30 Oct – 15/23 Nov

1Scope project with Key Client

Project Evening

2Data Collection Individual data

collection weeks 3-5Scenario Workshop Group work: Analysis and

ranking of drivers, projection of key drivers into different

futures; First scenario developments

6-8Report Write-up Formalisation of

Scenarios, selection of signposts and strategy

recommendations

The detailed approach to each phase of the scenario building process and their results will be

discussed throughout the remaining part of this chapter:

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Step 1: Scoping and diagnosis of a focal issue or decision Defining the problem and deciding on the breadth of the project is an essential starting point of

any scenario approach that allows for effective research to take place, guided by the principles

previously established. The “scoping stage” of our scenario building process for Vision 2020 took

place during a “Project Evening”, where members of the akva team were introduced to the client

and familiarized with the objectives of the assigned project, which was defined by the client as

follows:

“The University aspires to excellence in its teaching and research activities and, while being

rooted in Scotland, intends to maintain its global reach. It wishes to create several scenarios

about how the future might unfold in higher education so it can prepare a set of actions to

implement its chosen vision.” (Prof. P. McKiernan, Oct 2005)

Together with the client, the group determined the scope of the project by looking at three main

dimensions: a) The topical dimension, b) The time dimension and c) the geographic dimension.

[1] The first of these is concerned with the breadth of the topic, which can be either scoped very

broadly, such as “economic development” or very narrowly, such as “division of income”. In the

case of Vision 2020, we identified the topic to be fairly narrow as “The future of higher education”

(with relevance to the University of St. Andrews). The second dimension refers to the time

horizon that the scenarios will embrace. In our case, the time scale was set at fifteen years.

Reibnitz (1994) describes time horizons between 5-10 years as short-term, 11-20 years as mid-

term and above 20 years as long-term timelines. [2] According to this distinction, the Vision 2020

falls into the mid-term category. Finally, the geographical dimension can be divided into local,

regional, national or even international areas. The akva group assumed that the scenarios are

primarily to be established on the future of the University of St. Andrews. In this context, we

decided to define the primary geographic scope through the Scottish region, whilst keeping in

mind that regional arrangements, such as the European area, as well as the global struture

would play a distinctive role within our research as well.

Having defined the general scope of the project, we then attempted to identify a number of key

issues that would be relevant and lay within the defined borders of the project scope. Focal

issues identified in a common effort included university fee developments, the rapid

development of information technology and the increase in virtual education (see “The Open

University”), the spread of commercialised universities run by corporations, Scotland’s fight for

autonomy as well as intensified international security laws due to terrorist threats that have

49



made it more difficult for students to study abroad. In regards to St Andrews in particular, the

ethnicity mix of the student body, the importance of celebrities in regards to number of

applications and the quality of subjects were discussed as internally relevant points. These focal

issues were defined in the light of knowledge on current developments and with the help of the

client, who was asked to name inherent problems which the educational system and St.

Andrews in particular, currently faces.

In the final stage of the workshop, we devoted some time to determine the limitations our group

would inevitably face. We identified clear cognitive and imaginative limitations, which, as H.

Simon explained in his bounded rationality theory (Simon 1957), are inherent to the human mind

that cannot possibly grasp all available information. Another restriction acknowledged was the

tight time-frame within which the scenarios had to be developed and produced (1 month). This

put definite limits on the diligence with which data could be obtained (e.g. time for extensive

interview sessions would be too short) and scenarios could be developed. Finally, despite

extensive research experiences within the team, we realized that our abilities would not match

those of experts and that, overall, access to resources would be limited to publicly available

sources and secondary data, which represent a clear danger of carrying on previous

misinterpretations of facts and figures.

Step 2: Data Collection

Data collection is crucial to all scenario developers. Through this process, they accumulate

empirical materials on main drivers and trends, which later develop into a row of feasible

scenarios. In accordance to the establishment of scope and breadth of the project, the akva

group decided to structure the data collection process with the help of the PESTLE method (with

an addition of an extra section on developments in education). Thus, the Future of higher

education was researched in seven main categories: Politics, Economics, Socio-Demographics,

Technology, Legal, Environment and Education.

There are two general types of data that can be sought: Primary and secondary data. While

primary data refers to direct sources (e.g. a witness), secondary data are retrieved through

indirect sources, such as newspapers or articles, that seek information from primary or other

secondary sources and add their own interpretation. For our project we agreed to concentrate on

secondary data, which we retrieved via the worldwide web and the university library (books and

academic journals) from credible data sources such as government sites or renowned news

50



agencies. In this study, we purposely refrained from interviews, as we decided the time frame

was too short to allow for a thorough interview process to take place.

There is no doubt that secondary data can offer real advantages, as it relieves researchers from

having to conduct their own fieldwork or reduces the fieldwork required – an approach that would

have been beyond our available time frame, financial capacities and current expertise base.

Another benefit of secondary data is, that it does not necessarily require access to the people

who supplied it as well as it is inexpensive to use. Besides, it has historical value and is useful

for establishing comparisons and evaluating primary data. In detailed, internal secondary data is

information that has already been produced by organizations or private individuals. The data

was not collected to respond to the specific needs of the researcher, but constitutes a veritable

data-source for those consulting it. Archives, notes, reports, documents, rules and written

procedures, instructions and press cutting are just come of the types of internal data the

researcher can use. In fact, when we collect the internal secondary data for our project, it helps

us to reconstitute past actions that have had an influence on events and decisions and involved

individuals. For example, when we analyzed the internal secondary data on the educational

funding by the United Kingdom government, we reconstitute their past action on reducing the

funding support and we strongly believe that they have had an influence on events and decision

on the future education system in the next 15 years time. Regarding on the methodology on

collecting the internal secondary data, we all almost use internet as our data-collection tool as

we can obtain the data very efficiently with a very low cost.

On the downside, reliable secondary data can be difficult to obtain and, once located, there

might occur a problem of gaining access to it. Knowing how to identify and access data sources,

both external and internal to organizations is central to the collection of secondary data.

However, in the absence of suitable secondary data, researchers can collect their own primary

data through fieldwork. This brings us to the question of what methods the fieldworker should

use.

Regarding the methodology for data collection, they vary according to whether the researcher

adopts a quantitative or qualitative approach. In the following session, the first part will go to the

definition of both method and a short discussion on the difference between them. Then the light

will be shed on discussing which methodology we chose and in what way we applied them on

our project.

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Quantitative can be defined as a deductive approach in relation to research and they aim at

testing theory with its epistemological orientation on natural science model and in particular

positivism and objectivism. In contrast, Qualitative is defined as an inductive approach in relation

to research and they aim at generating theory with its epistemological orientation on

interpretivism and constructionism as its ontological orientation.

Indeed, it is conventional in research to make a distinction between the qualitative and the

quantitative. However, this distinction is both equivocal and ambiguous. The distinction is

equivocal as it is based on a multiplicity of criteria. Also, the distinction between qualitative and

quantitative is ambiguous because none of these criteria allow for an absolute distinction

between the qualitative and the quantitative approach: the nature of the data, the orientation of

the research, the objective or subjective character of the results obtained and the flexibility of the

research. To do the distinction between qualitative and quantitative method, it is necessary to go

back to the very nature of a researcher’s data. A brief distinction can be seen as follow.

“Numerical data” provides quantitative information, while “non-numerical data” furnishes

information that is clearly of a qualitative nature. Also, in accordance to Evrard et al. (1993: 35),

qualitative data corresponds to variables measured on nominal and ordinal (non-metric) scales,

while quantitative data is collected using interval scales and proportion scales.

For our project, we adopted the quantitative approach as our data-collection methodology. The

reason for choosing the quantitative approach is mainly due to the ontological stance of our

project. It is an inevitable fact that our project VISION 2020 requires a very large amount of both

external and internal secondary data. Indeed, part of these secondary data have to be numerical

and statistical in which to show us the trend on development in various fields and to be the

source to back up our decision on the ten important driving forces when we go to build up our

scenarios.

All in all, we benefited greatly from defining the methodology of data-collection, whilst working on

collecting the necessary data for our project VISION 2020. It provided us with a very clear

understanding of the categories of data we were looking for, and offered us a useful guideline to

follow throughout our research.

Whilst keeping mind the appropriate method and type of data to seek, we also made use of the

eight principles of "CAFE: Construction Alternative Futures Explorer" composed and advocated

by Professor Eden and Professor Langford. These principles served to be especially valuable in

52



helping us to choose data that contained useful and suggestive information, which were needed

to identify major trends and drivers within the current environment. These principles are as

follows:

Principle One

This principle suggests seeking information that describes “events (or suggested events) which

will have repercussions over a number of years.” The influence of these events will be defining

for the scenarios to be developed, as they may lead us to different outcomes. The information

we have sought reflects this characteristic in the sense that we chose to collect data on

fundamental issues, such as influential political alliances between states (EU developments and

global power structures), which are surely to have a lasting impact several years from now.

Principle Two

The second principle calls for awareness of paradoxes within an industry – things that do not

necessarily make immediate sense data appear contradictory. Such paradoxes can often lead to

helpful insights and a broader understanding of the method. Throughout our research we have

paid attention to this type of information, but did not find any of such contradictions among the

data we collected.

Principle Three

This principle hints to information that reflects “Political, Economic and Societal Change which

will lead to change in attitudes and demand characteristics.” In opposition to the second

principles, we have found much data that adheres to this description. For example, we found

data that suggest the increasing emergence of a knowledge based society with greater

emphasis on the services sector. Such a finding has great impact on the demand of education.

We have found similar data in all of the researched areas.

Principle Four

Principle four draws attention to “technological breakthroughs”. Today, technology is seen as a

major driver of change that can have an effect on the basic structure of society. If the

industrialisation age has not taught us that lesson, the information age certainly has.

Technological changes are particularly important in the educational context, as they can alter the

space utilisation on campus, speed up communication significantly and equip students as well

as Professors with a great deal of physical independence. Regarding its importance, we have

53



dedicated a whole research topic on this field and found many interesting developments

worthwhile mentioning.

Principle Five

“Changes in Volume or structure of a market” is the fifth content of information seen as relevant

by the founders of the CAFÉ method. Such changes could, for example, refer to emerging

patterns of competition, e.g. the increased emergence of corporate universities, which is one of

the structural changes we could learn about through our research. Such movements in structure

are vital to observe, as they could shift demand and supply and require enormous adaptations

by the individual participants of a market to remain competitive.

Principle Six

If “a major player shows signs of strategic change”, the data is worthwhile to analyze, according

to principle six. In the educational sector, this might mean a greater focus towards specialisation

in a subject, an extra-ordinate rise of student scholarships given out by the universities or the

launch of a construction campaign for new university buildings. Strategic change always

indicates that an organisation is reacting (or pre-acting) to a major change in the market and, at

the same time the organisations’ action may give rise to a development soon to be adapted by

others. Such developments would be reflected in the possible future scenarios. For example, the

existence of the “Open University” indicates a strategy that may direct the whole educational

market towards increased online education in the future – thus a principle that should be well

considered when researching and analysing data.

Principle Seven

The seventh principle says that attention should be paid to data which suggests “the resolution

of complication of current strategic issues for the industry”. An example might be the resolution

of the ongoing university fee debate or a political agreement on migration law. Such resolutions

have direct implications on the evolution of the educational system and have been accounted for

when discussing the possible development of university fees in our scenarios.

Principle Eight

Voltaire once suggested: "It is said that the present is pregnant with the future."

(Voltaire in “The Portable Voltaire”) The last principle, for that reason, advocates an “analysis of

past events or deductions about future events” when interpreting data. Although this principle

has to be seen with caution, as it seems to suggest a continuation of the past into the future

54



(which is never the case), it is a useful principle, because it emphasises the need to base future

scenarios on solid grounds of facts. That we have adhered to this principle will be seen in our

final analysis of scenarios, where we will explain from which factors of reality our assumptions

derived.

Step 3: Data Analysis: Drivers & Trends

The entire data collection was minimised to characteristic sentences that we collected within a

workbook. This workbook contained all the essentials of the information on the six PESTLE

categories (+ education) that we could bring together over a period of two weeks of intense

research. (a soft copy of this workbook can be found in the appendix of this book). At the end of

the researching period we engaged in a two day Scenario Workshop, during which we could

discuss and analyse the information in greater detail. In the light of the eight principles discussed

above and the information we collected during the research period, we extracted a range of key

drivers and trends from our workbook that we perceived as defining of the current environment

and potentially influential on future developments. These included:

Politics

Globalisation and

the role of the state

• The global political arena has gone through major changes even

more rapidly after the fall of the Berlin Wall

• Many countries have converted into liberal democracies and

countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, America and Europe alike have

merged into regional arrangements, within which the nation state has

given up some control in the hope of gains from the greater

community (primarily security and economic gains)

• States are still in place today, but their respective control on

information flow, technology developments, arms, migration and

disease is diverting; government decisions are becoming more

transparent

• Non state actors are already gaining in importance and influence

• The future development of this trend will greatly depend on the

sophistication of governments and their willingness to cooperate with

other states

European Union • Since the early post war years, The EU has become one of the most

55



sophisticated regional arrangements in the world

• It consists of a monetary union, allows for the principles of free

movement within its borders and established many agreements

between member states facilitating cooperation on areas such as

culture, media and not at least educational programmes

• Just recently, the Union has been expanded from 15 to 25 members,

through opening its borders to a wide range of the democratised post-

soviet states

• Further expansions are planned in 2007 (Bulgaria and Croatia) and

possibly around 2017 (Turkey)

• Britain has always been a special case and mostly kept out of the

most engaging treaties such as the Schengen agreement and the

monetary union

• Although cooperation exists, Britain’s “attitude” towards further

integration and possibly expansion in the future is uncertain

Scottish Autonomy • A few years back, Scotland celebrated the establishment of its own

parliament in Edinburgh

• Scotland has been granted more rights more recently, but still

remains under the political jurisdiction of the English Parliament

• Currently, one of the most heated debates concerns the right for

separate taxation laws in Scotland, opening the possibility for making

Scotland a potential “low tax paradise” in the future

Economics

Economic

Globalisation

• The globalization of the economy is an ongoing trend that could be

followed over several decades

• The early beginnings rest with the establishment of GATT/WTO and

the spread of free trade agreements

• In the future, the networked global economy will be driven by rapid

and largely unrestricted flow of information, ideas, cultural values,

capital, goods and services, and people: that is, globalization

UK Economy • The UK, a leading trading power and financial center, is one of the

quartett of trillion dollar economies of Western Europe. Over the past

two decades the government has greatly reduced public ownership

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and contained the growth of social welfare programs.

• Performance and perceived image of the Scottish economy differs

greatly from the English economy

• Devolved Scottish government has identified five key drivers of

economic development that are especially important and to which it

will give priority over the next years:

- Basic education and skills

- Research & development and innovation

- Entrepreneurial dynamism

- Electronic and physical infrastructure

- Managing public sector resources more effectively

• While the current performance of the labour market in Scotland is

strong, this follows a period of considerable structural change

throughout the period 1995-2003

• Future economic development in Scotland will highly depend on the

support Scotland continues to receive from England and the skilled

labor it succeeds in attracting. Recently, a variety of programs have

been installed in order to aid the development, such as a guaranteed

visa of two years for foreigners that studied in Scotland and wish to

stay in order to work in Scotland after graduation

• There is a trend towards the service sector, emphasizing the quest for

an increased knowledge based society

Socio-Demographics

Demography • The continuous growth of the world population is an old phenomena.

The number of people on planet earth is estimated to be 7.2 bn in

2015 compared to 6.1 bn today

• Today, life expectancy has increased due to excellent medical care

and a healthier lifestyle

• Nevertheless, Japan, Europe and to some extend the USA are going

to experience the effects of a decreasing population, mainly due to

decreasing birth rates, soon

• Decreasing birth rates originate in the idea that children cannot be

57



afforded and/or are not agreeable with the new careers opportunities

many young women decide to seek

Migration • There is a growing migration trend from Scotland to England,

specifically to London

UK Lifestyle • Britain, although cheaper than most Scandinavian countries, has one

of the highest living costs in Europe

• Despite that disadvantage, many foreigners decide to come to Britain

for their excellent living standards

Technology • In the midst of the information age, information technology increases

in importance everywhere

• New inventions and their adaptation occurs quicker than ever before

• Communication tools such as blackberries, video and telephone

conferencing cross borders and the internet are already standard in

most corporations and slowly start to spread into the educational

sector

• The virtual university (The “Open University”) already exists and an

increasing amount of universities, like the Boston University, start

offering online courses and distance learning programs as well as

complete online degrees

• The development of information technology has been on an incredible

progress. Internet was first developed in just a few universities in the

U.S.A for data-sharing purposes. However, in the mid 1990s. It

developed on an extremely large scale and nowadays, it is something

we must know or even possess for our living. With the development

of computing technology, it is a trend in the academic field that most

of the lecture material has gone online. Students, lecturer and

researchers communicate with one another by internet tool such as

E-mail, messenger and virtual conferences. Technology

developments

Scotland: “Silicon valley” of Europe

• In the recent years, there have been a rising number of technological

firms which set their branch or even their head quarter into Scotland.

Indeed, Scotland is currently renowned from being called “the Europe

Silicon Valley”. It is obvious that the technological status for Scotland

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has been on the rise and it is gaining international attention all over

the world

Legal

Law on Education

Policy

• In 2004, the British prime minister announced a revolutionary

education policy regarding the university funding policy in the next 5

years. In regard of the latest UK educational policy, there will a great

reduction on education funding for all British university and the tertiary

education fee will increased by treble start from September, 2006.

Indeed, it has been the trend for the U.K. government on reducing

funding resources on tertiary education for a long time

Immigration Law

• In the light of terrorist attacks in major cities such as New York,

Madrid, London, debates on immigration laws have become heated

• Immigration laws are now tighter, the requirement for DNA defined

passports is spreading quickly, especially in the Western countries

• The immigration law has a direct effect on the number of overseas

students that come to study in the UK

Education

Education in the UK • The next three years will be a time of considerable change within the

Higher Education sector in the UK

• The 2004 Higher Education Act introduced differential fees and a new

student support system which will come into effect in 2006. Combined

with the Office for Fair Access this is likely to ensure that higher

education retains its place in the political spotlight. 2005 will see a

General Election with differential tuition fees likely to be a key issue

and the Comprehensive Spending Review 2006-9 will be important to

gauge the post-differential fee public contribution to higher education.

Corporate

Universities

• There has been a recent trend towards corporate universities. Such

universities are already partially in place and expanding

St. Andrews

University

• Within the past years St Andrews has enjoyed a major increase in

applications, especially from abroad

• Its international ranking and reputation has been enhanced

throughout this time

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• These changes are generally attributed to increasing teaching quality

as well as the presence of royalty at the university

Step 4: Ranking by Certainty/Uncertainty and Importance/Unimportance

In the attempt to put the most significant macro-economic trends into order, we summarised the

most relevant trends into ten key points and, in the process of a group discussion, ranked them

in order of perceived importance. The order evolved as follows:

1. Education Funding

The trend is towards decreased government funding, but increased funding through

corporate funding and private scholarships

2. Information Technology

The speed of technology development and spread of its use in universities is increasing

3. Competition

Universities are facing greater competition from virtual universities (equals to global

competition), corporate and private universities

4. National Security & Immigration Laws

National security has tightened

5. Economy

A structural change towards a knowledge based society is occuring

6. Demographics

Europe’s population is aging and shrinking at the same time; there is migration away from

Scotland

7. Shift of Political / Economic Power

A shift of power structures from the UK and USA towards developing countries

8. St. Andrews University int. Recognition

The international recognition of St Andrews has increased

9. Importance of University Degree

University Degrees have become more important

10. Uk Lifestyle

Living quality in the UK is comparably good

After a thorough discussion within the group and outside of the group with our client, we decided

to revisit these drivers. We came to the conclusion that a range of the trends mentioned above

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are closely interrelated and can be categorized into more general groupings. Moreover, we

decided to remove the factor “importance of University Degree” from the list, as we realised that

this point can be understood as an outcome of rankings, the demand of the labour market and

the like, rather than it being a driver. We also installed a seemingly completely new headline

called “Globalisation & International Cooperation” – we found that this incorporates international

security laws to a certain extend and better reflects a major trend in society. After re-visiting our

ranking, we came up with the following structure (again ranked by importance):

1. Technology

Application of Information Technology in universities increases

2. University Funding

Public funding↓ vs. private funding ↑

3. Globalisation & International Integration

International cooperation between countries increases

4. Demographics

Europe’s Population is shrinking and aging

5. Global Politics

Power shift to developing Countries

6. St Andrews Reputation

Increase of international recognition of St Andrews up

7. UK Lifestyle

Increase in living quality

The second part of this step incorporates the ranking of the key indicators into a two-by-two

matrix by importance/unimportance and certainty/uncertainty. We came up with the following

distribution on the matrix:


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Important

Technology

University Funding

International Integration

Certain Uncertain

Demographics

St Andrews International Reputation

Global Politics

UK Lifestyle

Unimportant Step 5: Identify the Key drivers

It is difficult to draw clear cut lines between the fields the various factors belong to, and certainly

this is not completely possible in reality to assign the right place for all of these drivers.

Nevertheless, we came up with a feasible distribution, with technology as most important but

also most uncertain aspect. Although it is relatively certain that new technology will be

developed, new inventions are difficult to foresee – even less their impact and their speed of

adaptation for university use. We found this factor very important, as it can change the whole

structure of future education significantly, in terms of time and space dimensions. Secondly,

university funding was put at a relatively stable level between certain and uncertain. We

perceived this trend as clearer than the technology trend. Reforms of UK fees have already

begun, indicating the direction of this driver. Again, the importance is high, because the source

of funding can determine the whole outset of university structure. We will go into detail on this

argument at a later point. Finally, international co-operation can determine legislation aspects as

well as a country’s willingness to standardise on an international level and make use of greater

cross-national exchanges of resources. These three drivers represent the main drivers we will

later use to build a framework for several scenarios. Although the other drivers in the matrix are

worth noting and will be included in the scenario storylines, they play only a secondary role.

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The three main drivers are now evaluated separately from each other within a future projection

graph:

Technology

University Funding

Int. Integration

2010

2020

2015

Past Present Future

For each driver, several possible futures are being outlined. It is obvious, that, the further the

final date of projection away, the more difficult it is to outline a scenario for the driver that

matches reality one hundred percent. However, it is possible to make appropriations and

informed guesses, based on previous information collected. We identified the following possible

developments within the next fifteen years for the three individual drivers:

Technology

• High & cheaper development of technology; high utilisation of IT in universities or

• Some development in IT; a few selected ones are applied in universities or

• Very little and expensive further developments; hardly any new technology is introduced

in universities

University Funding

• Solely public

• public and private

• Solely private

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International Integration

• UK puts EU integration on hold

• Regional Integration within the EU, isolation from rest of the world

• World integration

Step 6: Building the Scenario

In order to develop feasible scenarios that are internally coherent and cover a wide range of

possibilities, we set the drivers next to each other and aimed at finding logical connections

between them, that could lead into possible scenarios. After a thorough round of discussions, we

combined the man drivers as follows:

Lots of Technology Public Funding Stop EU Integration

Some Technology Public & Private Funding EU integration

Little Technology Private Funding World integration

From this basic framework we developed three storylines that added some meaning to the

connections. The first of these scenarios represents the “City of the Sun” Scenario. The second

is what we called the “Mega Universities” and the third represents the idea of an “Elitist Society.”

As we will explain and discuss these three scenarios in detail in the following two chapters, we

will only summarize the basic assumptions that fundamentally underlay each scenario at this

point. These assumptions are linked to the main trends and drivers we have identified in the

importance/certainty matrix:

Scenario One: City of the Sun

• Stronger ICT, some on-line universities but most of the education still takes place on face

to face basis

• Universities remain public

• U.K holds off the complete integration into the European Union

• Greying but rich population

• Integration of universities starts to occur

• Student numbers in Scotland decline due to migration to Greater London Area

• Number of mature students rises

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Scenario Two: Megauniversities

• Information Technology is still used in education and substantially decreases the costs of

universities

• Higher education is funded by both the public and private sectors

• European Union integration increases and Europe becomes isolated from the East

• People increasingly immigrate out of Scotland to England and other European Countries

• The European Population continues to age

• The University of St Andrews remains an internationally recognised higher education

institution

• Living Standards in Europe and the United Kingdom improve

Scenario Three: The Elitist Society

• Information Technology is used in higher education but fails to significantly decrease

university costs

• Universities are financed by the private sector

• The world is more integrated, interconnected, and interdependent

• People increasingly immigrate out of Scotland to England and other European Countries

• The Europeann Population continues to age

• The University of St Andrews remains an internationally recognised higher education

institution.

• Living Standards in Europe and the United Kingdom improve

Step 7: Selecting Signposts and indicators

From the creation of the scenarios, we moved straight into the analysis and discussion of the

scenarios, which is, much like step eight, an integral part of this report which will be discussed in

more detail in chapter five. This step is dedicated to the analysis of scenarios by their

coherence, transparency and structure. The storyline is checked on its foundations in reality, as

well as aspects of surprise are discussed. Indicators are established for the client, in order to

help him or her to recognise signs in the future which indicate that a particular scenario seems

likely to evolve. Finally, the scenarios are analysed in regards to each other and the broad

picture they establish together. This part of the scenario process is particularly important, as it

indicates if scenarios can be validated to provide the basis for future strategy building, or if

several stages of the process have to be repeated in order to eliminate the mistakes that have

been found.

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Step 8: Scenarios to Strategy

The eights and final step in the scenario building process is the stage where the generated

scenarios are utilised to build future strategies. Porter has outlined the variety of choices the

decision maker faces when deciding how to draw a strategy on the foundations of the various

scenarios. We will define Porter’s outline in more detail in chapter six, where we also give some

final strategy recommendations that derive from the scenarios we have established.

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Scenario Thinking Chapter 4: Scenarios


CChhaapptteerr 44 SScceennaarriiooss ffoorr VViissiioonn 22002200

Chapter Summary St. Andrews City of the Sun

• Greying but rich population

• Universities are completely public

• Integration of universities starts to occur

• Student numbers in Scotland decline due to migration to Greater

London Area

• UK holds on EU integration

• Number of mature students rises

• Stronger ICT, but most of the education still takes place on face to

face basis

• Limits on fees are imposed by Government

Mega Universities • More university students are in their 30's or 40's

• St. Andrews remains prestigious

• Many students come from within the EU

• St. Andrews is a specialized college

• Scottish universities are all part of “The University of Scotland”

• Europe’s education is standardized

• Cross-country branches of universities exist

• Government and private sponsors are funding universities in Scotland

• Technology is cheaper and more widely applied

Elitist Society • A Union of Democratic European States exists

• A standard European education system was implemented

• Universities are privatised

• The University of St. Andrews is privately owned and funded

• Education is elitist and either

a) only affordable to the rich or

b) sponsored by companies for those who distinguished themselves

• The elite of students is international

• IT is important, but not the main driver in education

• Focus is on face-to-face, on campus education

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City of the Sun

St Andrews in the year 2020 is still doing well. There is a greying but relatively rich population

with much leisure time living in Scotland and across Europe. Time travellers from 2005 would

easily recognise United Kingdom and most of its higher education and research infrastructures,

though perhaps not the names above the entrances (due to integration of some of universities

into bigger regional institutions, and creation of new universities). The vast majority of

universities and public research centres have remained as public centres of discovery and

knowledge dissemination, but often as sites or campuses that are a part of larger nationalised

institutions. However due to its history and strong academic reputation St Andrews still remains

as a separate university alongside other ancient and some of red brick institutions (those

institutions include: Oxford, Cambridge, Durham, Bristol and Edinburgh).

Student numbers in Scotland have declined in the last years before 2020 due to

demomographic shifts towards southern England and greater London area, but that has only

became noticeable in 2015 as the participation rate of young people in higher education rose

simultaneously in the UK to over 50%. The reason for that being that U.K has held off the

complete EU integration (it is still a part of visa free area for European citizens, however the UK

is not obliged to obey the laws coming from Brussels, similar to Switzerland in 2005). That has

resulted in rise of applicants from the Southeast Asia and South America. The EU now including

37 countries has voted on the law (Internal Security Through Immigration Control Act) that has

imposed strict visa controls due to growing threats of terrorism. As a matter of fact it only grants

visas to perspective students that are willing to migrate into the EU and work in the sectors of

economy where the European citizens don’t wish to work, thus effectively rejecting high flyers

from oversees. U.K however is different in respect that education is now viewed as the state

export product. St Andrews University has benefited from that directly as the foreign students

(please note that the students from EU can still come and study with out visas and at discounted

rates, compared to other oversees students, and visa versa) have to pay high tuition fees.

Another notable change in the higher education is that the number of mature students has risen

dramatically as the life learning process became more common due to the further development

of dynamic knowledge economy. Moreover as of year 2012 the working week was reduced to 30

hours (six-hour working day: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday) for every

employee above 51-58 (depending on the collective agreements in the different industries). St

Andrews University was one of the first ones to react to that legislation by offering: study

programmes not only for career-related teaching and extending its evening degree program. By

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that single move St Andrews University not only provided a social service to “third age” citizens

seeking to use their leisure time intellectually and creatively ( a service that has lead to greater

financial support from the Higher Educational Institution of United Kingdom) but has also

increased its research outputs by almost a two fold ( the reason for the research increasing is

because the mature students usually already hold an undergraduate degree, and wish to

anticipate in more intellectually challenging programs) another source of raising funds, as major

companies are willing to pay a lot for new research.

As far as the teaching is concerned most of it still takes place on-campus and face-to-face,

although “blended mode learning” with strong ICT component is widely used in the United

Kingdom thanks to Online Public British Subscription Network that through the integrated use of

internet reaches almost every home in the United Kingdom. That system has proved most

efficient as it allows universities to share their library and journal resources thus cutting costs.

Furthermore through the use of I.T. the University of St-Andrews now offers a wider selection of

part time degrees. What's more all the students now get handed a devise similar to what used to

be known as blackberries, those machines help students of today to coordinate their group

projects and access the online resources. Plus they allow students to access the videos of

lectures, which is most convenient for the purposes of exam revision.

The last decade has also seen an increase in entirely on-line institutes in the United Kingdom,

with the Open University being the leader due to its long history and experience in that specific

sector of education. However, the degrees from those universities are not as prestigious as from

the institutions that carry out face-to-face education. The reason for that being, those personal

softer skills are still held to be extremely important. Plus on-line education can’t substitute the lab

practices that science students need to do (on-line can only provide a simulation, nevertheless it

is better to do the experiments in non virtual world, as it gives you a real feel for it).

.

Even though all the universities in the U.K are now public the quality of education is still different.

Some institutions including St Andrews are regarded as high tiers as clearly illustrated by data

from education rating agencies. With their graduates being targeted by major international

corporations. Another important issue at the moment is concerned with the university limits to

fee ranges. There is a hot debate on the notion for standardizing the tuition fee on the same

level for all face-to-face educational institutions in the United Kingdom. Indeed, the supporting

preachers claim that with the low level of barriers for entry, the society will be benefit from the

formation of fiercer competition between tertiary education institutions; it is an inevitable fact that

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the positive inter-university competition will pave the way on raising the general educational

standards in the United Kingdom. However, there is a strong opposition from the conservative

wing and they clarify the possible adverse outcome resulted from the “uniform degrees collusion”

if the uniform accreditation is on the way. In the long run, the U.K. national educational quality

will thus descend. The issue is going to be decided upon by British Court of Justice in June

2022.

As far the educational course structure is concerned it is still a familiar to time travelers formula

of Bachelors, Masters and PhD. However in the world of 2020 not every university has the right

to offer the PhDs and due to the creation of the so called “aptitude banks” in 2016, resulting from

the enhanced information technology use. Those aptitude banks store information on all the

students in U.K and ensure that the brightest students go to the best universities. St Andrews

has benefited from this as it is regarded as one of the best educational institutions in the U.K and

the world, hence having the right to accept graduates for the PhD programs.

Mega Universities Scotland has changed dramatically in the last 15 years. Edinburgh and Glasgow were vibrant

cities, this has changed. Edinburgh is still a nice city but it has shrunk and the diversity of its

population decreased. It's basically full of British and European citizens due to the increased

European integration and a contrasting isolation from the rest of the world. This is partly

occurred after the 2013 City Bombings. Osama Bin Laden used the United State's foreign policy

in the Middle East to gather more supporters. His attacks took on a more complex destructive

character On July 19, 2013 he lead and executed a coordinated attack in which big western

cities where simultaneously hit. London, New York, Washington, Paris, Madrid, Rome, and

Munich were all attacked on the same day by numerous suicide bombers. This event resulted in

unprecedented fear of the outside world which led the West as a whole to close down its

borders.

Another city that has changed in character is Glasgow. It is no longer a commercial centre.

Basically a lot of Scots have abandoned Scotland and are living and working in England now.

The Scottish migration that started in the turn of the century increased. As London grew more it

absorbed more and more of the educated blue collar workers. Furthermore any companies that

provided substantial jobs also moved to London as this was perceived as an attraction for high

70



caliber employees. It became a vicious cycle in which people wishing to get employed went to

London knowing that big companies were located their and at the same time companies moved

their headquarters to London to attract highly qualified employees.

Another demographic trend that started in the turn of the century and dramatically increased is

the aging of the European population. As a result a lot of university students are in their 30's or

40's either seeking a degree to be eligible for job promotion or to occupy time and better

themselves. Furthermore although the European Union (EU) closed its borders to Asian and

African immigrants it opened its doors to immigrants from Australia, New Zealand, and Russia in

order to sustain its required workforce. In addition to tackle this problem and other dilemmas

such as increasing competition from Chinese products, Europe came to realize that further

integration was the solution. In 2019 Europe became a federal state similar to the United Sates.

To solve the aging population problem Russia was included in the Union of Democratic

European States.

Something that has improved in this country is the quality of living. Part of the process of EU

integration included legislation that specified minimum living standards in member states. For

example, standards on construction specifications were put into place in 2011. One thing that

hasn’t changed is St. Andrews' prestige. It's still one of the most well known higher education

institutions in Europe and has a lot of students from other European students; the eastern

European population has especially increased.

St. Andrews' small size is still the same, but now its part of a bigger university. St. Andrews has

become a specialized college teaching International Relations and Management only, and it is

part of the University of Scotland. In 2017 all the Scottish universities joined to establish a mega

university. They had collaborated increasingly on many levels and finally reasoned that by

combining their resources each college could become an expert in its field. Funds would be

collected by the University of Scotland and distributed amongst the colleges according to their

performance. St. Andrews had a head start as it was ranked many times the best university in

Scotland before the mega merger. Therefore when the merger occurred it was able to attract

large funds from the University of Scotland which enabled it to invest in the research and

teaching of its specialised subjects: International Relations and Management. Shortly it emerged

as one of the most prestigious European colleges in these fields. Also since the University of

Scotland has a lot of resources now, it also has branches in several European capitals. As a

result of increased European Integration and later the emergence of the Union of Democratic

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European States a European standardization of education was created in 2018 which allows the

University of Scotland's European branches to enroll as many European students as they wish.

St. Andrews is still a public sector university as it is part of the University of Scotland. In 2015 the

United Kingdom's Top Up Fees legislation was reversed. People had began to realize that the

long run effect of such a legislation would lead to a trend where the rich attend university and the

unprivileged become less interested in education as it became a source of financial heartache.

Moreover the importance of Information Technology (IT) to higher education was recognized.

Through IT methods such as online teaching and virtual libraries, universities were able to

decrease their costs to the extent that the government could adequately fund them. In 2014 the

then ruling labour party was transformed and it became leftist. This was the final trigger through

which the legislation was reversed. Yet there are private Sector higher education institutions.

The amount of money required to establish a university in the size and scope of one of the mega

European universities is massive. Therefore private sector higher education institutions tend to

be specialised colleges with similar size and scope to St. Andrews College.

Elitist Society Scottish education is very different now compared to 15 years ago. This is due to many

changing factors some concerning education itself and some concerning other variables. At the

turn of the century Scottish migration had become a problem and by 2012 its affects were

greatly negative on the economy. Edinburgh and Glasgow are not the cities they used to be.

Edinburgh decreased in size and became more of a cultural and arts center. Commercial activity

in the city is minimal. Glasgow is no longer a commercial center. Gradually more and more of its

blue collar workers moved to London seeking jobs and abandoned Scotland. It was a vicious

cycle in which companies that provided substantial employment moved their headquarters to

London in order to attract high caliber individuals and at the same time Scots seeking

employment moved to London because it was were the most prestigious organizations and the

largest employers were located.

The aging of the European population is another demographic factor that greatly effected

Europe in the past 15 years The result was that the European Union eased its immigration laws

to attract as many people as it had to in order to satisfy its workforce requirements. The overall

result of this demographic trend was that the Scottish population aged and any Scottish youth

moved to England and in addition the United Kingdom and Europe became dependent on 72



foreign countries for employment, it attracted labour from regions like the Middle East and North

Africa and countries like India and Pakistan. Furthermore increasingly people aged between 30

and 40 years old are attending university to occupy time or to better themselves. In order to

tackle this problem and other dilemmas such as increasing competition from Chinese products

that forcefully penetrated the European market, Europe came to realize that further integration

was the solution. In 2019 Europe became a federal state similar to the United Sates. To solve

the aging population problem countries like Turkey and Russia were included in the Union of

Democratic European States.

Furthermore Europe's living quality increased. In an effort to maintain European living standards

after the incorporation of Eastern European states, Turkey, and Russia; the European Union

(EU) put in to affect legislation that maintained minimum living standards. For example, common

EU specification for construction where passed in the European Union Parliament in 2012.

Education is completely different know. Higher education was affected by the above factors and

others. In 2006 Top Up Fees were put in effect through which English universities charged

national students higher annual fees than they previously did. As government funding decreased

these fees increased and substituted it. By 2009 Scottish universities were no longer able to

compete with English ones as private finance had increased the teaching and research quality of

English universities and Scottish universities remained under funded from the government. Both

teachers and students abandoned Scottish universities and moved to English ones. In 2007 the

Scottish executive tried to use Information Technology (IT) to save its universities. It reasoned

that if it introduced such methods as web based libraries and online teaching it would decrease

its universities' costs and therefore be able to maintain their funding. Although this worked in a

way it didn’t in another way. University costs were lowered in Scotland through IT yet this was

perceived by the public as a simultaneous decrease in quality. Virtual teaching was regarded as

a second class teaching method. Face to face education was regarded as the only real way to

mold the minds of the future. As a result by the beginning of 2010 Scottish universities including

the University of St. Andrews started charging higher annual fees to their national students.

The University of St. Andrews was one of the few Scottish universities that were able to

relatively maintain their reputation through their ability to attract more government finance. St.

Andrews was seen as one of Scotland's landmarks. In addition alumni contributions played a

role in sustaining the university's facilities. Furthermore as it began to charge fees its research

and teaching improved and therefore its recognition began to recover.

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The positive effect of Top Up Fees on the quality of education in United Kingdom as a whole

made other European countries start experimenting with fee charging. In 2014 the English

executive followed by the Scottish executive in 2016 started a process where by universities

were privatized. They reasoned that since Top Up fees enhanced the quality of education

privatization would extremely improve it. Again other European Countries followed in this

process. Moreover when the Union of Democratic European States was formed in 2019 a

standard European education system was implemented.

The world we live in today has effected education both positively and negatively. Although higher

education has improved in terms of quality through privatization as competition in the higher

education free market forced such enhancement, the cost of education has greatly increased. It

is no longer funded by the government it has become part of the private sector with the final aim

of making profit. The University of St. Andrews isn’t any different it was one of the last

universities to be in Scotland yet in 2017 it was bought by Gerald Cavendish Grosvenor The

sixth Duke of Westminister. Therefore education is now only available to rich students who can

pay the price. As a result of the high prices universities charge they seek to attract rich

international students form other parts of the world. The University of St. Andrews is known to

have a large rich Asian student body. Education in Scotland and Europe as a whole has become

a function of the elite. St. Andrews used to be known as an elitist university where royals and the

rich went. This remains the case but it no longer applies to a few universities, higher education

has become only available to the elite. Some from unprivileged backgrounds have the

opportunity to attend higher education institutions in Europe and St. Andrews. If such students

have excellent secondary school qualifications they are sponsored by a multinational company.

Most multinational companies now have joint venture agreements with higher education

institutions which educate their geniuses. St. Andrews University established such an agreement

in 2016 with the Royal Bank of Scotland.

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Scenario Thinking Chapter 5: Discussion & Analysis


CChhaapptteerr 55 DDiissccuussssiioonn && AAnnaallyyssiiss ooff tthhee SScceennaarriiooss

Chapter Summary

City of the Sun • Real GDP per capita continues to rise

• U.K not fully integrated into the European Union

• Educational structure would remain similar to what we have today

• Expansion of I.C.T

• Education and research remain in a public sector

Mega University • Terrorist organisations are hitting back. In the summer of 2005 London

was bombed, in the same year Taba, Egypt was hit by suicide

bombers, and in November 2005 Amman, Jordan was also hit by

suicide bombers.

• Young Talent Scheme

• The interdependence of the European countries amongst each other

can realistically push them to uniting under one state

• Technology proven to be a cost saving method

• Universities are faced with funding difficulties and success of their

increased cooperation pointed to union as a successful solution.

• Reversal of the Top Up Fees Legislation isn’t particularly surprising as

it has been recently introduced and will be implemented in 2006

The Elitist Society • There is a big possibility that the public will dislike new teaching

methods. It is plausible that cost saving teaching methods such as

online teaching will be perceived by the public as a trade off between

price and quality

• The Scottish executive will have no choice but to adopt Top Up Fee

Legislation to be able to compete with English universities and

adequately fund its own higher education institutions

• Privatisation of Universities in Scotland

• Formation of the Union of Democratic European States

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Introduction

In this chapter we will dedicate some time to the analysis and discussion of the scenarios we

have described in the previous chapter. This is an important part of the report, and ultimately the

scenario building process, as it aims to verify the individual scenarios against various objectives

on two major levels:

a. Their internal structure

b. Their interplay with each other

Within these levels, we will check each storyline on plausibility, internal coherence, inclusion of

“surprise factors”, transparency, relevance to the client’s objectives and the quality of the titles.

In the last part, we will turn to the external structure and look at the “gestalt” –the interrelations

between the three scenarios. The analysis provides a crucial basis in order to decide whether

the scenarios are suitable in reality and can be used as building blocs for strategy development

or if a revision of any stage within the scenario building process is needed in order to fill the

gaps.

Internal Analysis: The Internal Logic of the Scenarios

The City of the Sun

The St. Andrews City of the Sun scenario is relatively realistic. The socio demographic

developments mentioned in this scenario are plausible as there is already a trend developing

that points out to younger people migrating towards the regions of Greater London and Southern

England. It is also well known that United Kingdom and Europe have an aging population. The

fact that that between 1971 and 2003 the number of people aged over 65 and over rose by 28%

while the number of under 16s fell by 18% in the U.K alone, speaks for itself. Furthermore our

findings confirm the assumption that the population is going to be relatively well off, the real GDP

per capita has risen from 11,716 (USD) in 1960 to 30,273(USD) in 2004 in U.K and the same

trend could be seen across the whole of Europe (9,427 to 28,538 in France, 8,187 to 26,658 in

Italy for example).

As far as political developments are concerned the hypothesis that U.K would be a part of E.U.

but is not going to fully integrate becomes more and more likely as the Conservative party is

likely to win next parliamentary elections, due to the rising unpopularity of the Labor party

following the fiasco in Iraq. It is also reasonable to assume that in future some of the universities

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are going to amalgamate. The reasons behind such a move are simple: at the moment Scottish

universities are finding it difficult to maintain good quality in all of their taught subjects as they

are experiencing financial restraints that prohibit them from offering a top class education across

the board of disciplines. Furthermore, there is already a sign of merger between the universities

in Scotland as university of Strathclyde is allied with the university of Glasgow, and the university

of St Andrews is sharing research with university of Dundee and medical training with university

of Manchester. Furthermore that kind of integration would allow sharing of recourses and cost

cutting through shared teaching.

Furthermore, it is hard to see extensive privatization of the universities in the United Kingdom

within next 15 years or so, as the U.K has always been viewed as a country with the leading

higher educational system that has set the standard across the world, thus suggesting that

government would be reluctant to withdraw from that area. For that reason, it is also plausible to

assume that the educational structure would remain similar to what we have today, although

there is a possibility of some new degrees and qualifications emerging hey are unlikely to pose

threat to traditional system of Bachelors, Masters and PhDs.

The expansion of the Information and Communication technologies also seems deemed to

continue over the period of next 10-15 years, as it is an efficient way to cost cut through sharing

off on-line resources and creation of on line libraries. The creation of on-line universities is

already taking place with the growing success of the Open University. Furthermore at the

moment we are already witnessing a grater use of I.C.T through the increased use of

blackberries and through the increased use of programs such as Skype and MSM that allow

students to coordinate their projects and group assignments by on-line discussions. The fact

that some of the lectures now are backed up by power point presentations that are displayed on

big plasma screens, could only be imagined in the wildest dreams some 20 years ago.

The SCENAIO is coherent and logically connected. It introduces the 2020 Scotland as a greying,

yet affluent place to live, also pointing out that the Educational System has changed somewhat,

even though the former institutions are recognisable. It portrays the University as doing having

adapted to new conditions and doing well.

Moving on to details of the student population, the SCENARIO points out that there are fewer

people living in Scotland, as many of them move to England. This was compensated for by a

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rise in the participation rate to 50% and the inflow of foreign students, who were denied

admission to the EU institutions. This generates a significant amount of money for the university.

Furthermore, the problem of an ageing population is addressed. It describes the new legislation

for people in their 50’s working less hours, and hence the increase in the mature students

numbers. University now offers more part-time and evening degree with a lot broader a

perspective in mind. University seems to have capitalised on this as well by getting increased

government funding.

The Debate on the Tuition fees is also very plausible. It faces opposition, and welfare argument

is against it. Furthermore, in the attempts to differentiate themselves from the mass, it makes

sense for a few elite universities to raise the price of the tuition, and it is possible that they may

be pricing the poorest out. A logical follow up from this is the creation of “aptitude banks” – if

the quality universities are differentiating themselves, it makes sense to ensure they get the

quality students, and award prestigious degrees. Furthermore, in this light, it is only natural that

there is an agency that ranks the university’s performance.

The use of Information Technology can not fully substitute for class room learning for an

established university. Therefore Blended mode learning seem very plausible, as it enhances

the classroom experience with a wealth of IT-enabled features. Building on this, the university

offers a range of part-time degrees via the same channel, thereby utilizing it to a further degree.

Overall, the SCENARIO seems coherent, in a way that it describes the challenges that have

arisen over the 15 years, together with the ways university has cope with them. Moreover, the

university seems to have extracted the maximum benefit form the opportunities that arose.

Therefore it’s status, as one of the best in the world, a logical conclusion to the argument.

The SCENARIO is rather surprising overall. It is surprising in an unusual way: most of the

assumptions and described events are conceivable. Some are of course more likely then others,

but still the logic is there and every other point seems to be in place. Yet when an overall picture

is considered, it is surprising. It does seem plausible that should universities switch to fees-

based income, that some, if not many will find it difficult to manage on their own. Places like

University of Derby, University of Wolverhampton and Coventry University may merge rather

swiftly after such change in legislation. However the notion that most Universities in the UK are

parts of various nationalized institutions is surprising by itself.

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The increase of participation rate for young people to over 50% is not surprising, albeit for

different reasons, as is the general migration towards the south of England. So is the increase in

the number of applicants form southeast Asia. However the reason for that is very surprising.

One may see the EU being enlarged to 27 members, but bearing in mind the recent French and

Dutch referenda even that seems a stretch – let alone 37 member-states. Furthermore, Europe

is possibly the most liberal part of the world, and seeing them impose such strict visa restrictions

is surprising.

The sharp change in socio-demographic mix of students, towards the mature students, and

senior part-time students seems to be very surprising, but is merely a response to the

developments described above. A tad more surprising perhaps is the legislation for the 50 year

olds to be working less. Moreover the university’s sudden strength in research is somewhat

unexpected, as research has never been the university’s strong point.

As surprising as the application of IT seems to be, it is more than plausible. Blended learning

model is a lot more of a probable development, then say a full substitution of classroom learning

by the on-line courses. Moreover, Megabyte Public British Subscription Network seems to be a

great idea in how to utilize universities recourses more efficiently and with a greater benefit to

society. What is surprising that they found a compromise as to which shares what and at what

price do the do it?

The fact that fee ranges are heavily contested and seem to have created a tier university system

is not surprising in itself. The fact that after 15 years it is still contested id what surprises a lot

more. Furthermore the development whereby not every university is able to award PhD’s is

something that is unthinkable just now. However the creation of the aptitude bank is a

progressive idea. Britain can not afford to waste talent. However surprising those things seem

now, when used in conjunction they definitely make sense.

The title St. Andrews the City of the Sun is engaging. It appeals to the reader as it draws a direct

link to Tomasso Campanellas work“The City of the Sun”. The reason for that scenario being

called “The City of the Sun” is because it is a very positive scenario for the University of St.

Andrews, and even though a lot of changes take place in the process of 2005-2020 St. Andrews

University remains as prestigious and well respected institution. Furthermore, the title is very

memorable, as the association with a classical work gives it some credibility. The word

combination of “city of the sun” gives it a warm and positive feeling.

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The scenario also addresses our client’s focal issue well. The client wishes to understand how

the developments in the next 15 years will affect the University of St. Andrews. The aspiration

lies in its foundation that proclaims “to aspire to excellence in its teaching and research activities

and, while being rooted in Scotland, to maintain its global reach”.

The St. Andrews City of the Sun Scenario addresses the clients concerns about the future and

illustrates one of the potential future developments that could take place within next 15 years.

The scenario starts off by describing the various factors that might have a direct or indirect effect

on the educational system in general and on the University of St. Andrews in particular. Those

factors include demographic, political, economical and social aspects among many others. For

instance the fact that the life expectancy in the United Kingdom and the rest of the world is

increasing combined with the ongoing trend of life long education could result in the number of

mature students rising in the near future. The implications for the client of such a development

would include introducing a new spectrum of programs that would capture that section of the

market, would be through the introduction / extension of evening degree programs, part time

degrees or introducing new non career related degrees. A number of such potential

developments and potential responses to them by our client are considered in the City of the

Sun Scenario.

The Scenario also includes further future events that may occur and have a direct effect on the

University of St. Andrews. The Top-up Fee legislation and the increased use of the Information

and Communication Technologies are considered, as well as the government actions and

potential mergers of the higher educational institutions. Thus it may be concluded that the City of

the Sun Scenario is relevant to our client as it sets out a number of signposts that may occur and

some possible strategic solutions to the challenges that might be heading our way. Being aware

of those possible future developments and engaging in “thinking outside the box” would help our

client to react quicker than it’s competitors and allocate resources more efficiently, that in would

lead to a better performance.

The Mega University

The Mega University scenario is relatively realistic. The mentioned political developments and

the West's and Europe's isolation from the East as a result of increased terrorist attacks are very

plausible, as events have occurred that already hint to this. Within the past five years, the United

States along with the United Kingdom (often perceived as ‘representatives of the Western bloc)

are in war with Iraq and the United States also went to war with Afghanistan. These are both

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Muslim countries. Furthermore terrorist organisations are hitting back. In the summer of 2005

London was bombed, in the same year Taba, Egypt was hit by suicide bombers, and in

November 2005 Amman, Jordan was also hit by suicide bombers.

As for socio demographic developments there are also events that hint to such trends. For

example, the immigration of people from Scotland has been occurring. The Scottish executive

has launched the Young Talent Scheme which gives overseas student that have graduated from

Scottish higher education institutions a two year work permit in an effort to attract educated

people to Scotland. The ageing of the European population has been occurring for several

years and is a dilemma. Some European countries have eased their immigration laws in an

effort to tackle this problem.

The creation of Union of Democratic European States is not a far fetched idea nor is the

inclusion of Russia in that Union. There has been an increase of European integration and an

expansion of the European Union. Countries in Europe are becoming more and more

interdependent economically. There has been a lot of talk about a common European political

position and a European army. The interdependence of the European countries amongst each

other can realistically push them to uniting under one state.

The merger of Scottish universities has basis. Universities are currently finding it hard to

maintain good quality in all their taught subjects as they are experiencing financial restrains that

don’t allow this. Furthermore they are currently cooperating in research as well as in teaching.

For example the University of St. Andrews cooperates with the University of Manchester

although it is not Scottish. To pursue a medicine degree in St. Andrews a student attends three

years in the university and the rest of his/her education is continued in Manchester. Further

similar cooperation amongst Scottish universities can lead to integration and a future union.

The reduction of university costs through Information Technology (IT) and the reversal of the

Top Up Fees legislation is a plausible possibility. Technology is proven to be a cost saving

method. In education it can be used in the form of virtual libraries and online teaching and that

would cut costs. As for the Top Up Fees Legislation it has been recently introduced and will be

implemented in 2006. It already faces a lot of opposition from the public and is not a widely

supported initiative. If this legislation leads to a trend where universities are only attended by the

rich it will face more public opposition and be reversed. This would leave Scottish education in

the more dependent on government funding and in the hands of the public sector.

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The Mega University Scenario is coherent and logically connected. It starts by speaking about

the shrinking of Edinburgh and Glasgow which is a rational result of increasing immigration out

of Scotland. It also speaks about the decreased ethnical diversity of the two cities which is a

result of the mentioned City Bombings which led the West and Europe to close down their

borders to the East.

Next the Scenario illustrates a world were universities are increasingly being attended by

students in their 30's and 40's. This conclusion is logically derived from the ageing of the

European population. Europe also opens its borders to New Zealand, Australia, and Russia to

counter the decrease in its work force as a result of an ageing population and an intentional

decrease of immigrants from Asia and Africa.

The formation of the Union of Democratic European States results from the above socio-

demographic problems and other mentioned factors such as increased interdependence

amongst European countries and their need to unite to face difficult challenges.

The mega merger is also a logical product of mentioned factors. The problems universities faced

with funding and success of their increased cooperation pointed to union as a successful

solution. Next the European standardized higher education system is mentioned which is a

rational by product of further European integration and the creation of the Union of Democratic

European States. Furthermore the University of Scotland's branches throughout European cities

is possible because of this system and the mentioned union of European countries.

The use of Information Technology in education expectedly decreased costs. This made the

government capable of continuously funding higher education and therefore they remained in

the hand of the public sector. The Mega University Scenario logically flows as one event or

development smoothly leads to another.

The Mega University Scenario has accounted for several surprise factors. Some elements are

more surprising than others. The occurrence of a terrorist attack on several western cities at the

same time at a first glance is not surprising as several terrorist attacks are occurring all over the

world every year. Yet, if such an attack actually occurs it will surprise everyone. Such events

never fail to surprise. On the other hand the restriction on immigration laws would not be solely

surprising as it has been recently discussed in the United Kingdom's political arena and has

considerable public support.

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The shrinking of Edinburgh and Glasgow as a result of immigration out of Scotland also belongs

to a more certain category, as this process has already started. Demographics is nothing that

can be changed suddenly and over night, and it thus reflects one of the most accurately

expected developments. This is also applicable to the aging of the European population. Yet the

resulting increasing attendance of people aged between 30 and 40 years old in universities

might be more surprising. Universities have always been thought of as a place for young men

and women, a place full of partying, the best times of a person's life. Such a socio-demographic

trend would change the character of university life.

St. Andrew's specialisation in international relations and management are far reaching ideas, but

not completely in odds with possible expectations. The university of St Andrews already excels

in both subjects, particularly international relations. Yet the possibility of the university only

teaching these subjects is very surprising as only a few might imagine universities like St.

Andrews to teach two subjects only. The mega merger may be the most surprising element in

the Mega University Scenario. Although many trends may lead to such a development, the

thought of decreased authority, and to an extend possibly decreased individuality of each

university, is often an uncomfortable one, people naturally might reject. It thus carries and aspect

of surprise to suggest a university the size of the “University of Scotland”. The idea of having a

cross-borders university might stretch the borers of expectation even further.

The reversal of the Top Up Fees Legislation isn’t particularly surprising as it has been recently

introduced and will be implemented in 2006. It also already faces a lot of opposition from the

public and is not a widely supported initiative. The formation of the Union of Democratic

European States is extremely surprising and appealing yet it is not a far fetched idea. As

mentioned before the European Union has been enlarged and countries with in the

supranational organisation are becoming more and more interdependent. Yet the formation of a

state that includes all European countries would surprise anyone as these countries still have a

strong national identity.

Our client's focal issue is how the future might unfold in higher education. Precisely the client

wishes to understand how developments in the next 15 years will affect the University of St.

Andrews: University of St. Andrews' Vision 2020. The University aspires to excellence in its

teaching and research activities and, while being rooted in Scotland, intends to maintain its

global reach.

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The Mega University Scenario addresses the clients concerns about the future and illustrates a

possible higher education picture in 15 years. It starts by describing Socio-demographic and

political development, mainly European isolation from the East, immigration away from Scotland,

and an ageing European population. Although these trends are not particularly higher education

development they affect Scotland and therefore the countries' universities too. For example the

ageing of the European population and other factors such as increasing competition from China

led European countries to unite to form the Union of Democratic European States. This unity in

turn affected higher education in Scotland and as a result the University of St. Andrews. For

example, the Eastern European student body grew in St. Andrews and a standardized European

higher education system was created which St. Andrews adheres to. Furthermore this has

allowed the University of Scotland which St. Andrews became part of to open branches in

European capitals and enroll as many European students as it wishes. Although a future

possibility may not seem relevant to higher education in Scotland or St. Andrews it is. Any part of

the Mega University Scenario has various implications for higher education in Scotland and in

turn St. Andrews University.

Other future events that are discussed in the Mega University Scenario have direct affects on St.

Andrews University and higher education in Scotland. The increased collaboration amongst

universities in Scotland which later led to their merger and the creation of the University of

Scotland greatly affects St. Andrews. It has turned it into a college. It is still the same size but is

now specialized in international relations and management and therefore has excelled in its

mastery of these subjects.

The reversal of Top Up Fees Legislation and the increasing use of IT in universities has a direct

affect on the St. Andrews Colleges. People realized that universities were becoming a place of

the privileged and thus the legislation was reversed. Furthermore, the use of IT in universities

allowed them to decrease their costs which gave the government a better chance to continue

funding universities.

As a whole the Mega University Scenario is extremely relevant to our client's focal point. Future

possibilities discussed in the scenario either have an indirect effect on higher education in

Scotland and St. Andrews or a direct one.

Reviewing the titles, we believe that the Mega University Scenario carries an engaging headline.

It appeals to a reader in a way that it makes him or her feel that something he or she is going to

start reading about something huge that will take place in the future, reflecting a big change.

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This is always interesting. We are attracted to big changes and developments, radical ones that

will have tremendous affects; otherwise it is not as important to read about the future. If no

change would take place then why read about the future, we already now how it looks like and if

something small will develop it is not that interesting as the world wont look much different from

what it is today. So, the Mega University Scenario signals a big change with big implications and

therefore it is important and appealing.

The title is exceptionally memorable. The word mega gives the reader the feeling of big. Big

things stick to a person's memory: big events, big people, big objects, big money, big rankings,

and also words that imply big. The idea behind the Mega University Scenario is surely to remain

memorable to people that read the title.

The Elitist Society

The Elitist Society Scenario is relatively realistic. There are events that have occurred that hint to

the mentioned socio-demographic developments described in the scenario. For example, the

immigration of people from Scotland has been occurring. The Scottish executive has launched

the Young Talent Scheme which gives overseas student that have graduated from Scottish

higher education institutions a two year work permit in an effort to attract educated people to

Scotland. The ageing of the European population has been occurring for several years and is a

dilemma. Some European countries have eased their immigration laws in an effort to tackle this

problem.

The creation of the Union of Democratic European States is not a far fetched idea nor is the

inclusion of Russia and Turkey in that union. There has been an increase of European

integration and an expansion of the European Union. Countries in Europe are becoming

interdependent economically. There has also been a lot of talk about a common European

political position and a European army. The interdependence of the European countries

amongst each other can realistically push them to state formation.

The introduction of Top Up Fees in Scotland has plausibility. Such legislation has already been

passed in England and is supposed to be implemented in 2006. If English universities change to

the better because of this legislation Scottish universities will not be able to compete with them.

In addition if the government tries to use IT to decrease university costs it is likely that it will be

successful in doing so. Yet, there is a big possibility that the public will dislike new teaching

methods. It is plausible that cost saving teaching methods such as online teaching will be

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perceived by the public as a trade off between price and quality. Thus the government may

realistically abandon such initiative. The Scottish executive will have no choice but to adopt Top

Up Fee Legislation to be able to compete with English universities and adequately fund its own

higher education institutions.

If Top Up Fees are successful in Scotland it could realistically lead the Scottish executive to

think that the more the better. More would mean privatization. If this occurs an automatic result

would be a further increase in tuition fees as any private sector commercial organisation aims to

make money. It is also realistic to presume that if this happens the University of St. Andrews will

put an effort to attract rich international students that can pay its high tuition fees. Once it is

privatised it will be abandoned by many unprivileged students thus it won't be functioning at full

capacity. Therefore the enrollment of a large number of international students will be easily

accommodated by the university.

The Elitist Society Scenario is coherent and logically connected. It starts by speaking about the

shrinking of Edinburgh and Glasgow which are rational results of increasing immigration out of

Scotland. It also speaks about the decreased ethnical diversity of the two cities which is a result

of the mentioned City Bombing which led the West and Europe to close down their borders to

the East.

Next, the Scenario illustrates a world were universities are increasingly being attended by

students in their 30's and 40's. This conclusion is logically derived from the aging of the

European population. Europe also opens its borders to foreign labour to counter the decrease in

its work force as a result of the aging population.

The formation of the Union of Democratic European States resulted from the above socio-

demographic problems and other mentioned factors such as increased interdependence

amongst European countries and their need to unite to face difficult challenges.

The privatization of Scottish, English, and other European universities is a result of the

introduction of Top Up Fee Legislation and its success which led governments to believe that

privatization would even better higher education institution more. Top Up Fee Legislation was

introduction in Scotland and the rest of Europe as a result of its introduction and success in

England. The failure to substitute cost saving online teaching methods for face to face teaching

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as a result of opposition from the public signaled the government's final attempt to try to continue

funding higher education.

The development of universities into a place of the elite is simply a result of privatised

universities' higher tuition fees which unprivileged students can not afford. At the same time for

Scottish universities to fill their capacity and substitute the departing unprivileged students with

ones that can pay their tuition fees they had to attract rich students from other countries.

The Elitist Society Scenario logically flows as one event or development smoothly leads to

another.

The Elitist Society Scenario is overall surprising. Some elements are more surprising than

others. The further shrinking of Edinburgh and Glasgow as a result of immigration out of

Scotland isn’t surprising as this process has already started. This is also applicable to the ageing

of the European population. Yet, the resulting increase of attendance of people aged between

30 and 40 years old in universities would surprise people. Universities have always been thought

of as a place for young men and women, a place full of partying, the best times of a person's life.

Such a socio-demographic trend would greatly change the character of university life in a

surprising way.

The introduction of Top Up Fee Legislation in Scotland isn’t surprising. Such legislation has

already been introduced in England and if Scotland follows England this would not be a surprise

as it is a logical thing to do. It would be difficult for Scottish universities to compete with English

ones otherwise.

The privatisation of Scottish and English universities would be very surprising. The United

Kingdom traditionally has basic free public services such as education and health. It is regarded

as each citizen's right to have the opportunity to pursue higher education and access to health

services. A change from that would surprise the public and even shock it. People would start to

fear their livelihood. If higher education institutions are privatised does that mean the health

service could also be privatised? In addition the privatisation of other European universities

would be even more surprising especially does in welfare states such as Germany.

On the other hand the signing of joint venture agreements in which higher education institutions

educate the future employees of multinational companies isn’t surprising. Some of these

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companies already own education institutions. A further development of that trend into a

cooperative agreement between multinational companies and established universities isn’t

particularly surprising.

The formation of the Union of Democratic European States is extremely surprising and intriguing

but it is not a far fetched idea. As mentioned before the European Union has been enlarged and

countries with in the supranational organisation are becoming more and more interdependent.

Yet the formation of a state that includes all European countries would surprise anyone as these

countries still have a strong national identity.

Our client's focal issue is how the future might unfold in higher education. Precisely the client

wishes to understand how developments in the next 15 years will affect the University of St.

Andrews: University of St. Andrews' Vision 2020. The University aspires to excellence in its

teaching and research activities and, while being rooted in Scotland, intends to maintain its

global reach.

The Elitist Society Scenario addresses the client's concerns about the future and illustrates a

possible higher education picture in 15 years. It starts by describing Socio-demographic and

political development, mainly immigration away from Scotland, an aging European population,

and a dependence on foreign labour. Although these trends are not particularly higher education

events they affect Scotland and therefore the countries' universities also. For example, the

European ageing population forces the University of St. Andrews to adjust its systems to take

into consideration students in their 30's and 40's. The university had to introduce more evening

classes and more home learning. Immigration out of Scotland also affects the university as it

makes its relations with foreign teaching associations necessary in order to higher foreign

lecturers if it fails to attract British ones to St. Andrews. Basically although a future possibility

may not seem relevant to higher education in Scotland or St. Andrews it is in an indirect way.

Any part of the Elitist Society Scenario affects and has various implications for higher education

in Scotland and in return St. Andrews.

Other future events that are discussed in the Elitist Society Scenario have direct affects on St.

Andrews University and higher education in Scotland. The introduction of Top Up Fee

Legislation in Scotland started a process that changed the character of St. Andrews. Firstly

students that could barely collect funds to attend university no longer do. In addition the

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university now depends more on its collection of funds to finance its self rather than on the

government's funding. As a result good management is important for the university.

The introduction of the mentioned legislation and its success led later to the privatisation of

higher education institutions in Scotland including St. Andrews. This completely changed the

university. It turned it into a place where the elite meet. The university adopted an aim similar to

that of other commercial organizations: making profit. Therefore its tuition fees increased more

and therefore more unprivileged students stopped attending universities and St. Andrews. This

made the university exert more effort into attracting rich foreign students that could pay its high

fees. As a result the international student body greatly increased.

The Elitist Society Scenario is very relevant to our client's focal point: higher education. Some

elements are relevant and have implication for higher education in a direct way and some in an

indirect way.

The Elitist Society Scenario was chosen as a title to because it is provocative. It indicates the

exclusiveness of a society which is pleasant for those within the circle, but uncomfortable for

those outside of it. It is engaging, because it makes a reader ask himself or herself questions

like: what does a society like this look like? Is it completely elitist society or a normal society that

is a bit elitist? Moreover, they might ask themselves where they would find a place within such a

society? Those readers that know they are reading a scenario concerning higher education in

Scotland will be even more intrigued. They will ask themselves: What does an elitist society

mean to higher education? Readers will be pushed to read the scenario to find out what is “The

Elitist Society”.

The title is also memorable. It defines the way the world will look like in a few, meaningful words.

The reader imagines a world full of the elite. He imagines something close to the feudal age an

elitist society where the elite rule powerfully and lead comfortable lives more exotic and luxurious

than imaginable. Such a picture is sure to stick in any persons mind.

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External Analysis: “Gestalt” of the Scenarios The three presented scenarios clarify each other's essence when read together. They both have

common elements. These were identified by us as certain and important drivers and therefore

they were integrated into all our scenarios. The socio-demographic trends in which people

increasingly immigrating out of Scotland and the European population ages is a common factor

amongst our scenarios. In addition the preservation of the University of St Andrews as an

internationally recognised higher education institution is incorporated in all of the scenarios. The

improvement of living standards in Europe and the United Kingdom is also a common factor but

a less important one.

Although the scenarios have some common elements they are overall completely different. The

Mega University Scenario is at one extreme. It describes a scenario where St. Andrews

becomes a specialized college teaching international relations and management only and it is

part of a bigger institution, the University of Scotland. This university encompasses all previous

Scottish universities and has branches in European cities outside of the United Kingdom.

Through IT methods such as online teaching and virtual libraries, universities were able to

decrease their costs to the extent that the government could adequately fund them. St. Andrews

is still government funded as it is part of University of Scotland, a public sector institution.

At the other end of the spectrum is the Elitists Society. It is a world that is completely different to

the Mega University Scenario. In contrast in the Elitist Society universities were privatised and

have therefore become part of the private sector. As a result of the high prices universities

charge they seek to attract rich international students form other parts of the world. Education is

now only available to rich students who can pay the price. If unprivileged students have excellent

secondary school qualifications they may attend higher education institutions and are sponsored

by a multinational organization. The Scottish executive tried to use it to decrease university costs

is an effort to continue funding universities as it did in the Mega University Scenario. Although

costs were decreased the public opposed unconventional teaching methods such as online

teaching and favoured face to face teaching.

The one thing both scenarios have in common is increasing integration and interdependence of

European countries which led to the Union of Democratic European States which was formed in

2019. Consequently a standard European education system was implemented.

90



The third scenario is called St. Andrews the City of the Sun. It is a moderate scenario that is

positioned in the middle between the other two. In this scenario St. Andrews University remains

part of the public sector. Furthermore, universities start integrating but not to the extent that

occurred in the Mega Merger Scenario. In this scenario IT is increasingly used in universities,

but most of the education still takes place on face to face basis. The government also placed

limits on tuition fees that universities can charge to ensure that they are not greatly increased.

Over all the education structure remains similar to today's structure. This scenario also explains

that the United Kingdom put a hold on European integration which is something different from

the other two scenarios in which the opposite occurs.

The three presented scenarios clarify each other. The Mega University Scenario is on one end

of the spectrum while the Elitist Society Scenario is on the other end and the St. Andrews City of

the Sun Scenario is in the middle.

91

CChhaapptteerr 66 SSttrraatteeggiicc RReeccoommmmeennddaattiioonnss

Scenario Thinking Chapter 6: Strategic Recommendations


CChhaapptteerr 66 SSttrraatteeggiicc RReeccoommmmeennddaattiioonnss

From Scenarios to Strategies “Scenarios are not an end in themselves. Many companies falter in translating scenarios into

strategy.” [1] This chapter is aimed at closing this gap, by elaborating on choices available to

decision makers to move from scenarios to strategies. With this in mind, we will give some brief

strategic recommendations to our scenarios, in order to allow our clients to make the best use of

this report.

Michael Porter suggests five different methods to move from scenario creations into action.[1]

The methods include:

1. Bet on the most probable scenario

2. Bet on the “Best” Scenario

3. Hedge

4. Preserve Flexibility

5. Influence

The first of these methods aims at attaching probabilities to the scenarios and then design a

strategy around the most probable scenario. Decision makers choosing this method run the risk

that the scenario does not occur. In essence, we believe that attaching probabilities to scenarios

ruins their initial intention and puts them on an equal footing with forecasting (including all their

disadvantages), which is why we decided not to recommend this method to our client.

The second method also suggests concentrating on only one scenario. This scenario is to be

characterised as the one that would be most beneficial to the organisation should it occur.

However, the same risk of non-occurrence applies and we do not wish to suggest a strategy to

our client that is based on more or less “hoping for the best”. Thus, we also rejected this

approach.

92



Hedging is the third method introduced by Porter. It implies a rough preparation for all scenarios

by designing strategies for each. However, because there is a lack of focus on one specific

scenario, the strategies are not very detailed and any greater specification will be costly. This

method, although safer in terms of risk and recommendable because it prepares for all cases,

will carry smaller benefits compared to a situation where one “correct” scenario was chosen.

Generally, this method is more in line with the idea of scenarios and has to be evaluated in the

light of the client’s financial capabilities as well as attitude to risk.

A fourth way to move from scenarios to strategy is by preserving flexibility. A neutral state of

observation would be maintained until it is clearer, which scenario will actually occur. The

strategy will then be picked accordingly. Although this method might sacrifice first-mover

advantages, it is a relatively inexpensive and safe way to know which strategy to chose.

Finally, Porter invites to be pro-active instead of re-active and to influence developments in a

away that will lead to the most desired scenario. Although this might be understood as an ideal

situation, we find this method highly unrealistic. It would require a great amount of resources and

an extensive network to exercise such an enormous influence. Many organisations are too small

to exert such a power and it is doubtful whether even the largest companies in the world could

influence all the drivers towards the development of a scenario that is desirable. We believe, that

in reality the environment is too complex to be influenced to such a degree.

In conclusion of this discussion, we would like to suggest the most appealing method of

“preserving flexibility” to our client. Although we recognize that even this method has

shortcomings, we believe that it matches best our client’s aims and the resources (financial and

otherwise) available to him. In the following part we will outline the various signposts that we

believe will indicate the occurrence of one scenario over another in the future and give some

strategic recommendations that might be helpful to our client once he has made a decision on

the respective scenario.

93



City of the Sun

Reading the Signs

The SCENARIO can be detected while it is in the process of occurring. Each event development

gives off a certain signal that the client can monitor and therefore tell if the scenario is coming to

pass.

The mainland Europe’s isolation from the rest of the world can easily be detected. It has started

with an unidentified increased threat of terrorism. One can assume pretty much anything after

the London bombings, thus it may have been a variety of events. The biggest signpost to

Europe's isolation from the east would be a restriction on its immigration laws and a final closing

of its educational borders to non-European students, unless they satisfy tough conditions.

The increased participation rate is not something that will happen overnight. Nor is it an easy

thing to monitor. However the year the 50% target will be in sight, relative to the average

increase in the participation rate may be a signal. Many will be eager to claim that the next year

will be the year of the 50% participation.

Similar story for the number of mature student in the tertiary education. One wouldn’t expect an

overnight change in their participation rate, but as the population is ageing and there is a distinct

value to getting a degree people will continue enrolling at the age of 30 and beyond. A good

signal for that would be if any given established university would be targeting mature students as

their preferred target market.

The differentiation of the universities in to a tier system would be signalled by a number of

events. It would start by accepting any of the ratings as official, or establishing a ranking agency.

Further more, the first time a different fee is charged to go to a different university would also be

a signal. Than signals will follow one another – the first case brought to court, the first ruling and

finally somewhat of a consensus decision. A shift in the party in power can also be a signal. It is

more likely to happen should Tories be in power.

Each major development contained in the SCENARIO would be clearly signalled by several

events. Some events will be more visible as some have an impact at an on the world at an

international level while others have an impact on Scottish higher education in particular

94




The University of St. Andrews should prepare for the City of the Sun Scenario before it

untangles. Every single time a signpost development takes place the university should be quick

to react to it. That would involve the reallocation of resources and sometimes the change in

strategy.

The University should start adjusting its structure to meet the requirements of mature students.

This might imply introducing an extended program of evening degrees and introducing a wider

range of non-career orientated subjects. The later would be relatively easy to achieve as the

University already offers a vast variety of joint honours across different disciplines; a competitive

advantage that could be utilised further. However, it is important not to rush those changes at

the moment, but to be aware of their existence so when the time comes the decision could be

made quickly and at minimal cost.

If any of the signposts of mainland Europe’s isolation from the rest of the world start to occur, it

would be plausible to be prepared to invest in new halls of residence, as that move would enable

St. Andrews to accommodate the increased number of students from overseas thus giving it an

early advantage. Furthermore, it might be a good idea to start working with foreign high quality

institutions on student exchange programmes. That move would not only offer the students of St.

Andrews to spend a term or a year abroad, thus extending their horizons but could also result in

a growing awareness of the university abroad as of a top academic institution. That in turn would

result in higher ratio of applications, thus allowing the university to accept only top quality

students, which in turn would make it easier to remain as a top-tier status.

The university should also be ready to increase its funding in the area of Information and

Communication Technologies (ICT) across the existing schools. Having the state of the art

Computer Department and some of the best lectures in that field it may want to build on that

advantage. Even though the initial costs of setting up might be relatively high in the long run the

strategy could prove to be cost saving. Additionally, the high level of technology would facilitate

better research opportunities, an advantage that would allow St. Andrews to catch up on that

area of activity. Better research would in turn mean greater financing and higher league table

positions.

95



Mega university

Reading the Signs

The Mega University Scenario can be detected before it occurs. Each development gives off

certain signal that the client can monitor and therefore tell if the scenario is coming to pass.

The West and Europe's isolation from the rest of the world can easily be detected. The start of

this development is an immense terrorist attack targeted against several western cities. It could

also be in the form of many smaller terrorist attacks each hitting a single European city but with

all the events occurring in a short time span. Following such an event the West would be forced

to fight back. The biggest sign post to Europe's isolation from the East would be a restriction on

its immigration laws and a final closing of its borders to non-westerners.

The aging European population as well as immigration out of Scotland are already occurring. Yet

their increase and their development into a dramatic problem could be signalled through future

statistics. Moreover if Scotland introduced more legislation that attracts young talent to the

country then this would signal that immigration out of Scotland has become a problem.

Furthermore the growth of the ageing European population into a big dilemma can be signalled

by an easing of European immigration laws to allow other westerners and other from places like

Russia to enter the country in an effort to help solve the issue.

The establishment of the Union of Democratic European States will be signaled by further

European integration and cooperation. The realization that certain challenges could not be dealt

with by one country would lead to more integration. The creation of a European common political

position and then a European army would be sign posts for this development.

The inclusion of countries like Russia and Turkey into the European Union would signal the

improvement of the quality of life in the United Kingdom. Schemes ensuring good living

standards would be targeted at countries like Russia and Turkey to force them to reach Western

European standards of living. Simultaneously any unacceptable determinants of quality of life in

the United Kingdom would be improved to reach the common European Union standards.

Most importantly are the signals of the mega merger between Scottish universities to create the

University of Scotland. A signal for this development would be increased collaboration amongst

Scottish universities in terms of research. They would also start to cooperate in teaching.

96



Teachers that are experts in a certain subject might become employed at two universities and

divide their time between them. This would result from a limited amount of experts in certain

subjects. Furthermore universities will start to have subject in which they are specialized in and

renowned for and the remaining subjects would be of poor quality as a result of a lack of

sufficient funds to maintain a university's teaching and research standards in all fields. Bit by bit

universities would merge until the merger includes all Scottish public sector universities.

The reversal of the Top Up Fees Legislation would be initially signaled by the developed

exclusivity of universities until they became a place of the rich. Next public strikes would take

place as a reaction to this trend. Moreover the use of IT to decrease university costs would make

the reversal of the legislation feasible. Finally, a shift by the Labour Party to the left would be the

most significant signal.

Each major development contained in the Mega University Scenario would be clearly signaled

by several events. Some events will be more visible as some have an impact at an international

level while others have an impact on Scottish higher education in particular.


The University of St. Andrews should be prepared for the Mega University Scenario before it

unravels. Every time a signal hints that the scenario is realising the University should take more

action to be prepared for it.

The University should try to adjust its system to meet the requirements of 30 and 40 year old

students. This could mean having more evening classes and less halls of residence. Although

the university shouldn’t take immediate action towards this development it should keep such

options in mind to use when the ageing population problem in Europe explodes.

Moreover contact with professor associations in New Zealand, Australia, and Russia should be

initiated. This will make St. Andrews better positioned to counter the problem of increasing

immigration out of Scotland. When this immigration puts St. Andrews in a situation where it

needs to recruit staff from abroad, its contacts in the mentioned countries could be put to good

use.

97



The University should also prepare to turn into a specialised college teaching international

relations and management. When the mentioned sign posts concerning this development are

realised then the University should start to put more of its resources into these two subjects. This

would continue to attract renowned lecturers to these schools, improve the schools' facilities,

and in turn their rankings. Such action would allow St. Andrews to attract a relatively large

amount of funds from the University of Scotland once it has been established as funds will be

distributed according to performance.

Furthermore the University of St. Andrews should initiate certain activities in other parts of

Europe. This should make the university better positioned when the Union of Democratic

European States is created and when a standardised European higher education system is put

into place. These activities could start in the United Kingdom. Specialised colleges teaching

international relations which the university is particularly renowned for could be opened in

England. Later such colleges could be built in the biggest European capitals such as Rome and

Paris. In time the university could add management as a taught subject in these colleges and

this would complete its expansion into Europe. Obviously as demand dictates the university

would open new colleges in other European cities.

The University of St. Andrews could also put efforts into increasing the use of IT. If it puts

resources into this and tries to utilise IT as a means to decrease costs it can become a pioneer

in this costs saving method. Later when other public sector universities need to save costs they

would turn to St. Andrews for help. This could give St. Andrews a leading position in the

University of Scotland.

98



Elitist Society

Reading the Signs

The Elitist Society Scenario can be detected before it occurs. Each event's development gives

off certain signals that the client can monitor and therefore tell if the scenario is coming to pass.

Europe's cooperation with the rest of the world can easily be detected. This would start with an

improvement in relations between Europe especially the United Kingdom and the Middle East.

The next signal would be Europe's ageing population problem reaching an extent where it

requires an immediate solution. The most feasible solution would be to attract labour from

closely located countries such as those that are in the Middle East and North Africa, and also

Pakistan and India.

The ageing European population as well as immigration out of Scotland are already occurring.

Yet their increase and their development into a dramatic problem could be signalled through

future statistics. In addition, if Scotland introduced more legislation that attracts young highly

qualified people to the country then this would signal that immigration out of Scotland has

become a bigger problem. Furthermore, the growth of the European ageing population into a big

dilemma can be signalled by an easing of European immigration laws to allow foreigners to enter

the country in an effort to help solve the issue.

The establishment of the Union of Democratic European States will be signaled by further

European integration and cooperation. The realization that certain challenges could not be dealt

with by one country would lead to more integration. The creation of a European common political

position and then a European military apparatus would be signposts to this development.

The inclusion of countries like Russia and Turkey into the European Union would signal the

improvement of the quality of life in the United Kingdom. Schemes ensuring such quality would

be targeted at countries like Russia and Turkey to force them to reach Western European

standards of living. Simultaneously any unacceptable determinants of living standards in the

United Kingdom would be improved to reach the common European Union standards.

The success of the top Up Fees legislation in England would be an initial signal of its adoption in

Scotland. Furthermore once Scottish universities become unable to compete with English

universities Scotland's adoption of the legislation would be more certain especially when

99



students and staff start moving from Scottish universities to English ones. The introduction of IT

in universities to substitute more conventional ways of teaching along with the public's

opposition towards it, favoring face to face teaching would be a final signal that the Scottish

Executive will adopt similar Top Up Fee legislation as it has tried to cut universities' costs to

continue funding them but failed to do so.

The ability of St. Andrews to maintain its reputation and standards through government funding

and alumni contributions until Top Up Fees are introduced will be signaled by rhetoric in the

media and amongst academics and people that refers to St. Andrews as a Scottish land mark

and a symbol that has to be protected.

The privatization of Scottish higher education institutions will be signaled initially be the success

of the Top Up Fee Legislation in Scotland. The privatisation of English universities and the

success of such a process would be the second signal. Once Scottish universities are privatized

the fees they charge will obviously increase. Bit by bit students that aren't well off will not attend

university as it will become a financial burden for them. As society accepts that university

education is less of a requirement and more of a privilege only a minority will attend it.

The joint venture agreements between universities and multinational companies to educate their

employees would be signal by the assistance that these companies will give higher education

institution when they are in financial trouble prior to the introduction of the Top Up Fee

Legislation. The cooperation between the companies and the universities would continue and

later be formalized in these joint venture agreements. They will become a vehicle through which

unprivileged hardworking students are educated once universities are privatized.


The University of St. Andrews should be prepared for the Elitist University Scenario before it

unravels. Every time a signal hints that the scenario is realising the University should take more

action to be prepared for it.

The university should try to adjust its systems to meet the requirements of 30 and 40 year old

students. This could mean having more evening classes and less halls of residence. Although

the university shouldn’t take immediate action towards this development it should keep such

options in mind to use when the aging population problem in Europe explodes.

100



Moreover contact with professor associations in New Zealand, Australia, and the United States

which are English speaking countries should be initiated. This will make St. Andrews better

positioned to counter the problem of increasing immigration out of Scotland. When this

immigration puts St. Andrews in a situation where it needs to recruit staff from abroad, its

contacts in New Zealand, Australia, and the United States could be put to good use.

To be ready for the hard times that the University will experience until Top Up Fees Legislation is

introduced in Scotland and Scottish Universities can charge higher fees to solve their financial

problems St. Andrews has to take initiative. Once the mentioned legislation is introduced in

England St. Andrews has to market its services to multinational companies. It should attract

finance from them for research as well as teaching in return for research sharing and education

for their employees. In addition, the University of St. Andrews should increase alumni events and

foster alumni organisations. This will put the university in a good position to utilise its alumni and

contributors during the hard times that the university will experience.

The University of St. Andrews should also pour funds into marketing itself abroad particularly in

the United States where its reputation is already established. If the university succeeds in

attracting a larger international student body it will benefit in two ways. Firstly, the high tuition

fees international students pay will help the university during times of financial hardship before

Scotland adopts the Top Up Fee Legislation. It will also help the university once it is privatised

and charges high tuition fees to all its students. In this phase in the universities life having an

established reputation abroad will help it attract the rich students that are capable of paying its

price.

101

Scenario Thinking Conclusion


CCoonncclluussiioonn

We can draw a range of different conclusions from this report, as it addresses a variety of

issues. In the first chapter, we have learnt about the different methodologies used to build

futures. We have compared and critically assessed the various methods and concluded that the

Scenario method has several advantages over the other methods, such as creating more than

one possible future, considering human judgement and opening the mind to new ideas. In the

same chapter we explained why we preferred the St. Andrews Scenario Approach above the

others. Reasons included its simplicity, its comprehensive nature and personal preference. From

the second chapter of this report we carried away a great amount of knowledge on literature,

main authors and the themes discussed. Major authors identified certainly included P. Wack, but

also Schoemaker and Godet.

After having established the theoretical base, we moved into the second part of this report: the

outline of our approach to the project “Vision 2020”. Here, we described the St. Andrews method

in more detail and how we utilised its structure to create a collection of three scenarios. It is

difficult to summarize the whole depth of this section into a few words. Equally complex are the

lessons learnt from chapter three. Firstly, it has demonstrated the simplicity and clear structure

of the St Andrews approach. Secondly, we have established a deep understanding of the

process as well as the educational environment that we researched. Both insights have been

utilised in order to create three different scenarios on the future of education, with which we

communicated our gained knowledge and understanding to the client. The scenarios developed,

reflected three different worlds of education, with varying focus on the three key variables:

technology, university funding and international integration. We then moved into a critical

analysis of our three scenarios (City of the sun, Megauniversity and Elitist Society) in chapter

five. We tested our scenarios on their quality individually and in respect to each other, and found

them to be coherent and plausible. Having validated our storylines, we moved into the final

section of this report and made some general suggestions on using scenarios best in order to

make a strategy choice. We then gave some strategic suggestions for each scenario.

In the previous discussion we have already reasoned that our scenarios communicate valuable

information to our client. However, what we have not touched on is the question, in how far the

akva team has benefited from this study. Looking back, it becomes clear that we had the

102

Scenario Thinking Conclusion


opportunity to expand on various fields of expertise throughout the process of developing this

report:

The first field of expertise refers to the theoretical concepts, which lay at the heart of all

methodologies. We have learnt not only about the different futurology approaches individually,

but also how they relate to each other. We are now able to judge between the benefits and

shortcomings of these methods and capable of deciding under which circumstances one

approach is more suitable than another.

The second area of expertise is the subject matter. Through in depth research and analysis of

data, we could identify major trends that are not only influential in within the educational arena,

but have affect on our immediate surroundings. Whilst elaborating on the various drivers, we

gained an understanding of the global environment and the major forces that move the world

around us.

Finally, the last level of knowledge refers to project related skills. These range from

communication skills, over time management skills to the ability of structuring complex ideas into

simple entities. The project has certainly demanded many of these skills, often all at the same

time.

With this in mind, we hope that this document serves as useful of a purpose for our client, as it

did for us.

103

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Scenario Thinking Appendix


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