scenarios for managing of european viticultural …
TRANSCRIPT
SCENARIOS FOR MANAGING OF EUROPEAN VITICULTURAL LANDSCAPES
iEMSs 2020Session C1 Methods for integrated modelling of spatial-environmental planning issues
17 September
Yang Chen1, Louise L. Willemen2, Nina Schwarz1
1 Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Geo-Information Management, ITC, University of Twente, The Netherlands2 Departement of Natural Resources, ITC, University of Twente
Introduction - SECBIVIT project and cases Modelling winegrowers’ behaviour
• Conceptual model• Workflow
Generic vs locally adapted agent-based models• Why generic vs. locally adapted?• Relations between generic and locally adapted models
Computerised generic model Discussion and outlook: local vs generic: relations? spatial
extent?
OVERVIEW
2
http://www.secbivit.boku.ac.at/
SECBIVIT — SCENARIOS FOR PROVIDING MULTIPLE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND BIODIVERSITY IN VITICULTURAL LANDSCAPES
1. ABMs on winegrowers’ land use decisions2. Quantification of ecosystem services (ES) 3. Analyzing trade-offs and synergies between
biodiversity and ES 4. Decision-support tool for stakeholders
3
CASE STUDY REGIONS
4
MONTILLA-MORILES, SPAIN
Photo credit: S. Winter
Grapevine
Inter-rows
5
LEITHABERG, AUSTRIA
Photo credit: S. Winter
6
Groundcover management (inter-row vegetation, soil tillage)
Pesticide use• Herbicides• Insecticides• Pheromone
dispenser• Fungicides
o Synthetic o Sulphur + copper
COMMONALITIES ACROSS EUROPEAN VITICULTURAL LANDSCAPES
Yield Pest abundance Habitat for natural
predators Biodiversity Soil conservation Landscape
aesthetics
https://www.jeanleon.com/en/a-step-by-step-look-at-the-grapevine-growth-cycle/
7
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THE ABM
Winegrowers as agents who take land use decisions in coupled human-natural systems
8
Generic ABM
Locally adapted ABMsSpain France Germany Austria Romania
IMPLEMENTATION: GENERIC VS LOCALLY ADAPTED ABM
9
Stakeholder involvement
- Expert interviews- Focus group- Current policies
ABM (landscape)- ABM: Winegrowers’ behavior on
inter-row ground cover management &
pesticide use
Generic ABM & Locally adapted ABMs
Validation & Analyses
- Validating against independent statistics (e.g. NUTS 2/3 level)- Comparing model outcomes: generic ABM vs. locally adapted ones
WORKFLOW TO OPERATIONALIZE THE ABM
- CLIMEX 4.0- Statistical analyses
Policy drivers
Scenarios with estimates on biocontrol,
carbon sequestration,
and biodiversity
- Field experiment: soil / grapevine / pest / natural enemies /… sampling and analyses -> Biocontrol model
Climate drivers
Ecological processes
- Questionnaire design and implementation-> Survey results-> Decision rules
10
SURVEYKey concepts covered in this survey General information about the
winegrower General information about the vineyard
(physical and agri-business) Actual behavior on
Inter-row vegetation management Herbicide, Insecticide, and Fungicide use
(average and extreme situations) Pheromone dispenser use
Driving factors behind actual behavior—per behavior and in general Economic factors (cost, subsidy, risk, etc.) Social factors (tradition, respect, etc.) Environmental factors (commitment,
preservation, etc.) Adaptive capacity (resources, information,
etc.)
11
Why a generic model? (common ground, and inform policy) Cost effective Easy to be implemented and integrated for large-scale modelling To explore and inform policy Serve as blueprints for locally-adapted models, no re-inventing all the
time
Why locally adapted? Heterogeneity in climate, social-economic, policy environment Allows for considerations when implementing higher-level policies
A GENERIC MODEL VS LOCALLY ADAPTED ABMS
12
CONSIDERATIONS IN THE GENERIC VS LOCAL ABMS
Factors Generic ABM Locally-adapted ABMs
Spatial resolution 1 hectare same
Spatial extent Fixed extent Fixed extent across the cases?
Temporal resolution 1 year same
Temporal extent 20-30 years, 50 years max same
Landscape characteristics VirtualInitialized to match with
case region (Corine CLC2018, USGS DEM)
Winegrowers decision rules
Based on all survey results
Adjust to case-specific conditions
Ecological processes Average statistical relationships
Case-specific experimental results and
observations
Scenario drivers General trends Case-specific policies, climate conditions 13
Winegrower characteristics-Personal-Attitudes-Management
Vineyard properties-Slope-Water-Soil-Pest-Natural enemies-Groundcover-Yield
Landscape properties:Spatial extent, climate, soil, policy, market, etc.
ILLUSTRATION OF THE GENERIC ABM (NETLOGO)
14
Limitation we are facing: less survey data than planned (COVID19) two case studies likely will be dropped
Ongoing work: finalize concept, implement, validate ABM and run scenarios
Current issues in the concept: Potentially ignoring processes at landscape level given a
chosen spatial extent? Comments, suggestions, questions on the generic vs. locally
adapted ABMs?
DISCUSSION
15
References Anderson, K., Findlay, C., Fuentes, S., & Tyerman, S. (2008). Garmaute Climate Change Review: Viticulture, Wine and
Climate Change. University of Adelaide.
Bartkowski, B., & Bartke, S. (2018). Leverage points for governing agricultural soils: A review of empirical studies of European farmers’ decision-making. Sustainability, 10(9), 3179.
Dessart, F. J., Barreiro-Hurlé, J., & van Bavel, R. (2019). Behavioural factors affecting the adoption of sustainablefarming practices: a policy-oriented review. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 46(3), 417-471.
EIP-AGRI. (2019). Diseases and pests in viticulture. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eip/agriculture/sites/agri-eip/files/eip-agri_fg_diseases_and_pests_in_viticulture_final_report_2019_en.pdf
Kallas, Z., Serra, T., & Gil, J. M. (2010). Farmers’ objectives as determinants of organic farming adoption: The case of Catalonian vineyard production. Agricultural Economics, 41(5), 409-423.
Neethling, E., Petitjean, T., Quénol, H., & Barbeau, G. (2017). Assessing local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in the context of climate change. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 22(5), 777-803.
Pertot, I., Caffi, T., Rossi, V., Mugnai, L., Hoffmann, C., Grando, M. S., . . . Anfora, G. (2017). A critical review of plant protection tools for reducing pesticide use on grapevine and new perspectives for the implementation of IPM in viticulture. Crop Protection, 97, 70-84. doi:10.1016/j.cropro.2016.11.025
Schlüter, M., Baeza, A., Dressler, G., Frank, K., Groeneveld, J., Jager, W., . . . Wijermans, N. (2017). A framework formapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems. Ecological Economics, 131, 21-35. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.08.008
Winkler, K. J., Viers, J. H., & Nicholas, K. A. (2017). Assessing ecosystem services and multifunctionality for vineyardsystems. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 5, 15.
Winter, S., Bauer, T., Strauss, P., Kratschmer, S., Paredes, D., Popescu, D., . . . Batáry, P. (2018). Effects of vegetationmanagement intensity on biodiversity and ecosystem services in vineyards: A meta-analysis. Journal of AppliedEcology. doi:10.1111/1365-2664.13124 16
THANK YOU!
9 institutions in 7 countries Funded by:
17
EXTRA INFORMATION
EXTRA MATERIALS
Eurostat, 2015
PEST AND THEIR NATURAL ENEMIES
Reineke and Thiery, 2016
CLIMATE, SOIL, TERRAIN
Case region Climate Soil Annual rainfall
Mean daily Maximum
summer temp
Number of rainy days in the
growing season (March-
September)
Slope (percent rise) of
vineyards: mean and (max)
Montilla-moriles,Spain
Semi-continential mediterranean cliamte (Csa)
blinding-white Albariza 627 36 24 7.4 (53.6)
Entre-deux-Mers,France Oceanic climate (Cfb) compact sands; silt;
clayey-limestone 914 27 69 4.3 (50.6)
Tarnave,Romania
Continental climate (Dfb)
brown soil (eumezobasic/eutricam
bisol); regosols; anthropic soil
586 28 57 12.8 (51.8)
Leithaberg,Austria
Continental climate (Cfb)
calcareous silt, sands, gravels, loam,
lacustrine clay, gritty alluvial deposits
614 27 65 3.8 (52.3)
Palatinate,Germany
Temperature oceanic climate (Cfb) sandstone, volvanic soil 675 24 94 5.2 (56.9)
Csa: hot-summer Mediterranean climateCfb: temperate oceanic climateDfb: warm-summer humid continental climate
Sources: climate-data.org; meteoblue.com; wine-searcher.com; terroir-france.com; austrianwine.com; USGS DEM (srtm-1-a-s); CORINE land cover 2018
OVERVIEW OF VINEYARDS PHYSICAL PROPERTIES
OVERVIEW OF VINEYARD MANAGEMENT PROPERTIES
OVERVIEW OF THE REPORTED BEHAVIOR ON INTER-ROW MANAGEMENT
OVERVIEW OF THE REPORTED BEHAVIOR ON PESTICIDE USE
ATTITUDES — LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE IN VITICULTURAL ACTIVITIES IN GENERAL
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
80% training (87,3% accurate)20% testing(78,6% accurate)
80% training (risk estimate 2,02)20% testing(risk estimate 4,39)
Groundcover Bare soil in the inter-row is more common in Spain Seed mixtures are used in Austria, France, and Germany
Pesticides Herbicides are not used in Austria, France, and Germany Insecticides are not used in Germany (small sample all organic) Pheromone dispenser are much more common and more used
in Austria, France, and Germany than in Spain and Romania
DIFFERENCES IN REPORTED BEHAVIOR
CURRENT POLICIESCountry Groundcover
managementPesticide use
Austria Groundcover on slope, managed green cover instead of spontaneous
Subsidies if not using herbicides and insecticidesBuyers restrict useOrganic viticulture rules
France Local AOC forbids glyphosate, mandatory to treat leafhopper (Scaphoideus titanus); National movement to promote organic production
Germany Government requires winter green cover, some labels require year-round cover and even well-mixed variety
Buyers restrict number of substance residues
Romania EU organic viticulture rules
Spain Financial support for covered vineyards
EU organic viticulture rules