SCHOOL DISTRICT ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS

May 22, 2012

...The ProcessEnrollment HistoryStudent Research

-Geo-codeAppraisal ResearchHousing Research

-Single Family-Multi Family

Economic Indicators -Census DataProjections

-Campus and Grade

Existing Enrollment Trends

• 973 New Students, exceeded forecast by 500 students• Total net growth previous 5 years: 899• Kindergarten growth of 8%, largest class in recent history• First grade exceeds 3,000 students for first time• KG-3rd grade enrollment exceeds 9th-12th by over 2,500 students• 12th grade survival rate dropped below 95% for first time

cohorts EE/PRE-K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th

2007/08 0.98 1.02 1.03 0.99 0.99 0.95 1.01 1.00 1.03 0.98 1.08 0.87 0.90 0.97

2008/09 1.05 1.01 1.03 0.98 1.00 0.98 0.99 0.97 1.03 0.98 1.09 0.87 0.89 0.97

2009/10 1.05 1.01 1.01 0.99 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.98 1.05 0.98 1.09 0.91 0.89 0.99

2010/11 1.07 1.05 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.01 1.11 0.91 0.90 1.01

2011/12 1.02 1.08 1.02 1.01 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.10 0.90 0.91 0.94

Year (Oct.) EE/PRE-K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth % Growth

2006/07 1,381 2,754 2,719 2,604 2,598 2,510 2,469 2,456 2,575 2,512 2,749 2,392 2,218 2,118 34,055 -1,115 -3.2%

2007/08 1,354 2,816 2,835 2,690 2,579 2,479 2,523 2,465 2,538 2,518 2,701 2,404 2,150 2,157 34,209 154 0.5%

2008/09 1,427 2,857 2,887 2,791 2,682 2,540 2,460 2,453 2,551 2,475 2,736 2,345 2,129 2,089 34,422 213 0.6%

2009/10 1,502 2,881 2,891 2,847 2,702 2,639 2,525 2,407 2,570 2,509 2,689 2,490 2,093 2,114 34,859 437 1.3%

2010/11 1,612 3,033 2,902 2,949 2,898 2,752 2,673 2,597 2,481 2,588 2,777 2,445 2,247 2,115 36,069 1,210 3.5%

2011/12 1,647 3,262 3,089 2,925 2,927 2,879 2,750 2,710 2,668 2,498 2,844 2,511 2,223 2,109 37,042 973 2.7%

Year (Oct.) TotalBlack or African

American % Hispanic %American Indian or

Alaska Native % Asian % White %Two or more

races %

Native Hawai ian/

Other Pacifi c %2008/09 7,045 387 5.5% 2,199 31.2% 39 0.6% 181 2.6% 4,237 60.1%2009/10 7,342 402 5.5% 2,346 32.0% 38 0.5% 203 2.8% 4,353 59.3%

2010/11 7,530 303 4.0% 2,735 36.3% 29 0.4% 195 2.6% 4,097 54.4% 152 2.0% 19 0.3%2011/12 7,764 315 4.1% 2,849 36.7% 23 0.3% 206 2.7% 4,192 54.0% 158 2.0% 18 0.2%

TEA CHANGES IN RACE/ETHNICITY REPORTING

Understand Race/Ethnicity Trends

Economical ly Disadvantaged % ED

2,531 35.9%2,798 38.1%

2,804 37.2%2,901 37.4%

Track changes in poverty

Kindergarten Growth Exceeds 8% (13% in two years)

Kindergarten Growth exceeds

19%

10 Shaded Schools had a total increase of 173 students. 75% of net growth from 2010/11 to 2011/12

Apartment Points

Appraisal District DataDallas County Appraisal District

• Combined over 63,000 records• “Over 65” exemptions•Accurate Residential Geo-Code

Over-65 increases consistent with aging population as detailed through 2010 Census reports.

Source: Dallas County Appraisal District

Over 65 Exempt

Non-Owner Occupied

Over 65 Exempt

Non-Owner Occupied

2010/11 13,296 9,875 976 3,4442011/12 13,824 10,769 2,155 5,245

Students

Year

Single Family Lots

Park at North Vista ( Meyer Elementary)

Students / Units = Yield 221 (115 Elem) / 252 = .88

Trailing Vine Apartments (Hirsch Elementary)

Students / Units = Yield 56 (18 Elem) / 96 = .58

Note: In 2010 this complex had 89 students (43 Elem) a yield of .92.

Note: In 2010 this complex had 235 students (127 Elem) a yield of .93.

Future Development - Viridian

Huffines Community2,000 Acres

3,500 Single FamilyMulti-Family or

TH/Condo450 acres of lakes

Mixed UseBuild-out 8-10 years

• Developer has begun permitting SF homes.• Expects 250 Homes by end of 2013

2000 CensusTotal Population ISD: 68,207 Total “Under 18” Population: 20,12229% of Total Population Under 18

2010 CensusTotal Population ISD: 74,409 Total “Under 18” Population: 18,79125% of Total Population Under 18

Grade Level Analysis and Projections

Year (Oct.) EE K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th K-12 Total Growth Percent2006/07 203 620 580 614 581 548 575 611 558 599 632 610 565 527 7,620 7,8232007/08 270 549 671 557 622 598 552 586 627 568 637 583 602 520 7,672 7,942 119 1.5%2008/09 263 599 603 649 561 607 581 559 598 608 615 569 578 530 7,657 7,920 -22 -0.3%2009/10 299 563 643 578 640 552 588 579 540 579 656 570 548 512 7,548 7,847 -73 -0.9%2010/11 311 537 597 594 563 649 562 609 578 559 663 578 511 506 7,506 7,817 -30 -0.4%2011/12 313 577 576 598 575 568 634 551 615 579 584 599 558 441 7,455 7,768 -49 -0.6%2012/13 313 565 601 580 610 584 573 641 548 621 610 536 574 497 7,540 7,853 85 1.1%2013/14 313 558 588 580 578 616 587 603 635 542 666 554 523 509 7,539 7,852 -1 0.0%2014/15 313 575 583 585 576 579 614 617 592 640 573 610 538 459 7,541 7,854 2 0.0%2015/16 313 579 590 575 586 580 585 597 617 597 679 524 599 476 7,584 7,897 43 0.5%

10-YEAR GRADE LEVEL PROJECTIONS

AGE5 AGE6 AGE7 AGE8 AGE9 AGE10 AGE11 AGE12 AGE13 AGE14 AGE15 AGE16 AGE17620 679 640 644 692 648 665 641 639 646 643 643 677

0.931 0.848 0.934 0.893 0.821 0.978 0.829 0.959 0.906 0.904 0.932 0.868 0.651

Census Enrol l2010 8,477 7,506 0.8852011 8,437 7,455 0.8842012 8,410 7,540 0.8972013 8,358 7,539 0.902

Campus ProjectionsYear (Oct.)

Enrol lment Capaci ty EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5TH Total Growth

% Growth K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

2006/07 41 122 127 112 102 115 116 7352007/08 50 122 147 133 127 109 129 817 82 11.2% 1.000 1.205 1.047 1.134 1.069 1.1222008/09 50 126 140 160 147 131 126 880 63 7.7% 1.033 1.148 1.088 1.105 1.031 1.1562009/10 73 113 113 112 141 135 135 822 -58 -6.6% 0.897 0.897 0.800 0.881 0.918 1.0312010/11 67 121 109 110 113 139 130 789 -33 -4.0% 1.071 0.965 0.973 1.009 0.986 0.9632011/12 74 118 130 104 115 110 144 795 6 0.8% 0.975 1.074 0.954 1.045 0.973 1.0362012/13 74 124 120 133 107 117 113 788 -7 -0.9% 1.050 1.020 1.020 1.030 1.015 1.0252013/14 74 128 126 122 137 106 118 811 23 2.9% 1.032 1.020 1.015 1.028 0.991 1.0082014/15 74 130 133 126 126 140 108 837 26 3.2% 1.019 1.038 0.996 1.035 1.020 1.0232015/16 74 120 133 134 130 128 143 862 25 3.0% 0.920 1.026 1.010 1.031 1.015 1.0192016/17 74 125 123 134 138 131 130 855 -7 -0.8% 1.040 1.028 1.007 1.031 1.009 1.0172017/18 74 127 129 124 138 140 134 866 11 1.3% 1.015 1.031 1.005 1.032 1.015 1.0192018/19 74 130 131 130 128 140 143 876 10 1.2% 1.020 1.028 1.007 1.031 1.013 1.0182019/20 74 135 134 132 134 130 143 882 6 0.7% 1.040 1.029 1.006 1.032 1.012 1.0182020/21 74 138 139 135 136 136 132 890 8 0.9% 1.025 1.029 1.006 1.032 1.013 1.0192021/22 74 142 142 140 139 138 138 913 23 2.6% 1.028 1.029 1.007 1.032 1.013 1.018

BENNETT ELEMENTARY

Bennat Elementary 2010 Census Age5 Age6 Age7 Age8 Age9 Age10

114 103 118 122 151 151 7592010/11 121 109 110 113 139 130 722 0.951

Age4 Age5 Age6 Age7 Age8 Age9110 114 103 118 122 151 718

2011/12 118 130 104 115 110 144 721 1.004

Age3 Age4 Age5 Age6 Age7 Age894 110 114 103 118 122 661

2012/13 124 120 133 107 117 113 714 1.080

Age2 Age3 Age4 Age5 Age6 Age799 94 110 114 103 118 638

2013/14 128 126 122 137 106 118 737 1.155

Age1 Age2 Age3 Age4 Age5 Age691 99 94 110 114 103 611

2014/15 130 133 126 126 140 108 763 1.249

Under1 Age1 Age2 Age3 Age4 Age5106 91 99 94 110 114 614

2015/16 120 133 134 130 128 143 788 1.283

SF1 Census Block data by age

Campus Enrollment by grade

Annual New home Closings

When/how do we adjust household size?School Year Households Population Enrollment Student per HH

2005/06 19,458 53,510 10,886 0.562006/07 21,391 59,681 12,731 0.602007/08 22,713 63,824 14,165 0.622008/09 23,813 67,391 15,278 0.642009/10 24,744 70,273 16,085 0.652010/11 25,407 72,410 16,705 0.662011/12 26,067 74,552 17,358 0.67

3Q06 19333Q07 13223Q08 11003Q09 9313Q10 6633Q11 660

Change above - 2.75 – 2.86 – Actual 2010 Census 2.93

ISD Population Estimates

Texas Education Agencyhttp://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/adhocrpt/Standard_Reports.html

Small “Area” Estimates

• AOI: collection of 2010 census blocks• Summarized data• researched housing April ‘10 – April ‘12• Developed occupancy rate using parcel owner ship records• Census household sizes• April 2012 Population• Compared change to local population estimate changes and ISD growth.

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