Puyallup School District Trends & Projections

Presented to the Puyallup School Board

W. Les KendrickJanuary 2009

Outline

Enrollment trends in Puyallup and the Region

Demographic trends affecting enrollment

Projections

Puyallup Enrollment TrendP223 Enrollment OCTOBERExcludes Chief Leschi Students and Full-Time Running Start Students

15,58216,199 16,488 16,823 17,190 17,518 17,916

18,446 18,684 18,83019,355 19,648 19,825 19,958

20,486 20,762 20,885 20,794

4.00%

1.80% 2.00% 2.20% 1.90% 2.30%3.00%

1.30%0.80%

2.80%

1.50%0.8% 0.7%

2.6%

1.3%

0%0.6%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Oct-91 Oct-92 Oct-93 Oct-94 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

Enrollment Percent Change

Puyallup Elementary Enrollment P223 EnrollmentExcludes Chief Leschi Students

8,866 9,075 9,038 9,116 9,279 9,303 9,442 9,646 9,835 9,915 10,111 10,129 10,159 10,217 10,408 10,618 10,625 10,686

2.40%

-0.40%0.90%

1.80%0.30%

1.50%2.20% 2.00%

0.80%2.00%

0.2% 0.3% 0.6%1.9% 2.0%

0.1% 0.6%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Oct-91 Oct-92 Oct-93 Oct-94 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Enrollment Percent Change

Puyallup Junior High EnrollmentP223 Enrollment Excludes Chief Leschi Students

3,5493,751

4,065 4,150 4,241 4,3104,467

4,618 4,670 4,6774,838

5,043 5,079 5,078 5,122 5,109 5,182 5,056

5.7%

8.4%

2.1% 2.2% 1.6%

3.6% 3.4%

1.1%0.1%

3.4%4.2%

0.7% 0.0%0.9%

-0.3%

1.6%

-2.5%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Oct-91

Oct-92

Oct-93

4-Oct

Oct-95

Oct-96

Oct-97

Oct-98

Oct-99

Oct-

00

Oct-

01

Oct-

02

Oct-

03

Oct-

04

Oct_

05

Oct-

06

Oct-

07

Oct-

08

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Enrollment Percent Change

Puyallup High School EnrollmentP223 EnrollmentExclude Chief Leschi Students and Full Time Running Start Students

3,1673,373 3,385

3,557 3,6703,905 4,007

4,182 4,179 4,2384,406 4,476 4,587 4,663

4,956 5,035 5,078 5,052

6.5%

0.4%

5.1%

3.2%

6.4%

2.6%

4.4%

-0.1%1.4%

4.0%

1.6%2.5%

1.7%

6.3%

1.6%0.9%

-0.5%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Oct-91 Oct-92 Oct-93 Oct-94 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Enrollment Percent Change

Pierce County Public Schools Enrollment Trend (October)

113,610 115,489 117,302 120,131 121,911 123,616 124,518 125,601 127,518 128,078 128,924 128,079 128,563 128,730 129,750 130,025

2.20%1.70% 1.60%

2.40%1.50% 1.40%

0.70% 0.90%1.50%

0.4% 0.7%

-0.7%0.4% 0.1%

0.8%0.2%

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

Enrollment Percent Change

Puyallup’s Share of County K-12 Public School Enrollment(October P223 Enrollment)

14.51% 14.57% 14.65% 14.58% 14.70% 14.92% 15.01% 14.99% 15.18% 15.33% 15.38% 15.58% 15.93% 16.13% 16.10% 16.02%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Pierce County Districts: Change in Enrollment2007 - 2008

675107

42413833

153

-6-10

-47-50-57-62

-88-91

-133-135

-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000

Steilacoom

Orting

Chief Leschi

Fife

Dieringer

Clover Park

Tacoma

Bethel

Clover Park Technical College

Carbonado

Eatonville

Sumner

University Place

Bates Technical College

Franklin Pierce

Puyallup

White River

Peninsula

Net Change in Enrollment: 275

Key Demographic Trends to Watch

Births and the K-12 Population

Population Growth in the District

New Housing Growth

Projected Pierce County BirthsMy forecast based on birth rates and the State population forecast for Pierce County

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,00013,00014,000

Births 10,174 10,052 10031 10085 10278 10469 11,139 11011 11234 11394 11611 11793 11978 12149 12321 12452

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Projected Births:2007-2015

Next year’s cohort

Puyallup District Population ForecastBased on PSRC Neighborhood Forecast for Areas in and Around the Districtand the Latest Population Estimates for the District

015,00030,00045,00060,00075,00090,000

105,000120,000135,000

Based on PSRC NeighborhoodForecasts

94,922 113,000 117,000 127,000 139,400

Census 20002008 OFM

Estim.2010 2015 2020

County K-12 Public School Forecast Based on Projected Changes in the Age 5-19 Population

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

K-12 Public Schools (PierceCounty)

125,601 128,653 130,025 131,149 137,782 146,021

Age 5-19 County Forecast (OFM) 161,653 166,430 172,300 173,789 177,959 185,959

2000 Census

20052008

Estimate2010 2015 2020

Back of the Envelope CalculationsWhere is Enrollment Headed in 2020?

Calculations Based on Projected Change in the County K-12 Public School PopulationForecasts for 2020

Based on ProjectedCurrent Constant % Downward % Gains in County Pop.

County Public School K-12 Population 130,000 146,000 146,000 146,000Puyallup Share of K-12 16.0% 16.0% 15.7% 16.8%Puyallup Enrollment 20,794 23,360 22,922 24,528

What about next year? Things to watch

Housing market is a big factor

Virtual schools?

Private schools and the economy

New Single Family Homes Sold in the Puyallup School District: 2006-2008Source: New Home Trends

577

317

117

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2006 2007 2008*

*As of December 5, 2008

New Single Family Homes Currently for Sale in the Puyallup School DistrictSource: New Home Trends

324

844

1094 1088

883

1307

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008

Enrollment Forecast

Low, Medium & High

Low, Medium & High Headcount ForecastOct-2009

20,794 20,621 20,811 21036

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Oct-08 Low Medium High

Alternative Projections 2009-2020Excludes Chief Leschi and Full-Time Running Start

22544

23805

24895

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

Low Growth 20,794 20621 20601 20652 20868 21042 21274 21497 21779 22059 22241 22321 22544

Medium (Recommended) 20,794 20811 20978 21162 21516 21824 22141 22443 22803 23155 23402 23534 23805

High Growth 20,794 21036 21355 21688 22191 22639 23024 23384 23798 24193 24467 24612 24895

O ct_08 O ct_09 O ct_10 O ct_11 O ct_12 O ct_13 O ct_14 O ct_15 O ct_16 O ct_17 O ct_18 O ct_19 O ct_20

Summary of the Enrollment Picture as of Today

Enrollment is projected to remain flat and possibly decline in 2009. Enrollment might also be down or show very little growth in 2010.

Long range enrollment to 2020 is still projected to grow due to increases in county births and housing and population increases in the District.

Enrollment in 2020 is projected to be somewhere between 22,500 (Low) and 24,900 (High).