schroder european alpha funds · position sizing liquidity 3-5 year upside conviction level...
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Marketing material for professional investors or advisers only. This material is not suitable for retail clients
Schroders Investment Conference 2018, Manchester
22 May 2018
#SICM18
@Schroders_UK
James Sym, Fund ManagerJames Rutland, Fund Manager
Schroder European Alpha Funds
Schroder European Alpha Income Fund Schroder European Alpha Plus Fund
Benchmark FTSE World Europe ex UK index FTSE World Europe ex UK index
Number of stocks 30–50 30–50 (Top 10 > 30%)
Portfolio restrictionsStock +10 %/No minimum +10 %/No minimum
Business cycle style +/- 20% +/- 20%
Tracking risk 4-8% target range 4-8% target range
Launch date 1 May 20126 October 20031 June 2014 (James Sym assumed responsibility)
Structure UK ICVC, UCITs
Share classes A, C and Z income + Accumulation Shares. C and Z Hedged
A, C and Z income + Accumulation Shares. C and Z Hedged
Yield frequency Quarterly NA
Fund overview
1
Source: Schroders.
Concentrated, unconstrained and medium-term
Who we are
James Rutland, Fund Manager
Source: Schroders. *Schroder International Selection Fund will be referred to as Schroder ISF throughout this presentation
2
– Co-manager of Schroder ISF* European Alpha Focus, back-up fund manager for the Schroder European Alpha Income Fund and Schroder European Alpha Plus Fund
– Joined Schroders’ Business Cycle Team in 2014– Investment career commenced in 2010 at Goldman Sachs where he was an analyst in
the industrials team – Chartered Financial Analyst– Degree in Economics, University College London
James Sym, Fund Manager
– Manager of Schroder European Alpha, Alpha Plus and Alpha Focus funds. He joined Schroders in 2013
– James was a Fund Manager at Cazenove Capital Management from 2007 to 2013 – Chartered Financial Analyst– BSc in Natural Sciences (Mineral Physics) and Management Studies, Cambridge
University
Fund manager biographies
What we offer
3
Source: Schroders. As at April 2018.
– Concentrated European Funds of around 40 stocks
– A pragmatic business-cycle approach
– Focused on company meetings and local knowledge from our network of local brokers
– Medium-term (3–5 year) valuation horizon
– Income fund offers around 3.5% yield currently
Anti-consensual positioning to benefit from expectation of rising inflation
What we are thinking
Source: Schroders. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
4
KEY POINTS
– We are positioned anti-consensually: OW financials/value, UW growth/’bond-proxies’
– We think we are at an inflection point. Inflation is going to rise
– We are seeing early signs of a rotation to position for this
– Inflation rising and value outperforming will be very painful for many European funds
– Not all about the macro. Business cycle is an influence, bottom-up stock picking key
Performance in GBP % Year to date 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012† Since launch1
Schroder European Alpha Income Fund ‘Z Acc’ +0.5 +16.3 +24.0 +13.0 +0.6 +40.1 +15.2 +166.0
FTSE World Europe Ex UK -0.8 +17.5 +19.7 +5.3 +0.2 +25.2 +14.4 +110.8
Relative +1.3 -1.2 +4.3 +7.7 +0.4 +14.9 +0.8 +55.2
Quartile Q1 Q3 Q1* Q1 Q2 Q1* Q1 Q1*
Schroder European Alpha Income Fund
Source: Morningstar, bid to bid with net income reinvested to 30 April 2018, net of fees in GBP, Z Acc. Quartile rankings are based on Z share class (main unit share class), IA Europe ex UK peer group. On 24 March 2014, the fund previously named Cazenove European income Fund, changed its name to Schroder European Alpha Income Fund. Prior to 24 March 2014 the fund uses the trackrecord of Cazenove European income fund (launched on 02 May 2012) as a performance track record.Source of ratings: Morningstar, Square Mile, FE Trustnet and Rayner Spencer Mills, as at 30 April 2018 and Citywire, as at 31 March 2018. 1Launch date: 02 May 2012. *Top decile.
5
Performance to 30 April 2018
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Performance in GBP % Year to date 1 year 2 years 3 years 5 years Since
inception1
Schroder European Alpha Income Fund ‘Z Acc’ +0.5 +10.5 +43.6 +41.5 +106.0 +166.0
FTSE World Europe Ex UK -0.8 +7.4 +38.4 +32.9 +63.3 +110.8
Relative +1.3 +3.1 +5.2 +8.6 +42.7 +55.2
Quartile Q1 Q1 Q1* Q1 Q1* Q1*
Schroder European Alpha Income FundPerformance to 30 April 2018
6
Source: 1Launch date: 02 May 2012. *Top decile. Source: Morningstar, bid to bid with net income reinvested to 30 April 2018, net of fees in GBP. Quartile rankings are based on Z share class (main unit share class), IA Europe ex UK peer group. Source of ratings: Morningstar, Square Mile, FE Trustnet and Rayner Spencer Mills, as at 30 April 2018 and Citywire, as at 31 March 2018
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested.
Schroder European Alpha Income Fund – risk factors:
As a result of fees being charged to capital, the distributable income of the fund may be higher but there is the potential thatperformance or capital value may be eroded.
The fund can be exposed to different currencies. Changes in foreign exchange rates could create losses.
Equity prices fluctuate daily, based on many factors including general, economic, industry or company news.
In difficult market conditions, the fund may not be able to sell a security for full value or at all. This could affect performance and could cause the fund to defer or suspend redemptions of its shares.
Failures at service providers could lead to disruptions of fund operations or losses.
Schroder European Alpha Income FundPerformance as at 31 December 2017
7
2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
Schroder European Alpha Income Fund +16.3 +24.0 +13.0 +0.6 +40.1
FTSE Europe ex UK Index (TR) +17.5 +19.7 +5.3 +0.2 +25.2
Source: Morningstar, bid to bid, net income reinvested, net of fees, as at 31 December2017, based on Z Acc Units, GBP.
Performance in GBP % Year to date 1 year 2 years 3 years Since 30.05.20141
Schroder European Alpha Plus Fund ‘Z Acc’ +0.2 +13.4 +49.8 +46.9 +52.6
FTSE World Europe Ex UK -0.8 +7.4 +38.4 +32.9 +39.4
Relative +1.0 +6.0 +11.4 +14.0 +13.2
Quartile Q2 Q1* Q1* Q1* Q1
Schroder European Alpha Plus FundPerformance to 30 April 2018
8
Source: Morningstar, bid to bid with net income reinvested to 30 April 2018, net of fees in GBP, Z Acc. Quartile rank is based on Z share class (main unit share class), IA Europe ex UK peer group. Source of ratings: FETrustnet, Morningstar and Rayner Spencer Mills, as at 30 April 2018 and Citywire, as at 31 March 2018. 1James Sym began managing the fund on 30 May 2014. *Top decile.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested.
Schroder European Alpha Plus Fund – risk factors:
Funds which invest in a smaller number of stocks can carry more risk than funds spread across a larger number of companies.
The fund can be exposed to different currencies. Changes in foreign exchange rates could create losses.
Equity prices fluctuate daily, based on many factors including general, economic, industry or company news.
In difficult market conditions, the fund may not be able to sell a security for full value or at all. This could affect performance and could cause the fund to defer or suspend redemptions of its shares.
Failures at service providers could lead to disruptions of fund operations or losses.
Schroder European Alpha Plus FundPerformance as at 31 December 2017
9
2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
Schroder European Alpha Plus Fund +20.1 +25.3 +12.4 -10.7 +20.3
FTSE Europe ex UK Index (TR) +17.5 +19.7 +5.3 +0.2 +25.2
Source: Morningstar, bid to bid, net income reinvested, net of fees, as at 31 December2017, based on Z Acc Units, GBP.
Investment process
Investment process
Source: Schroders. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
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A robust framework to support pragmatic investing
Investment decision
Local broker network
Meeting senior management on site
European conferences and seminars
A scientific approach
What will move the share price?
3 year valuation upside
If we are wrong, what is the risk?
Position sizing
Liquidity
3-5 year upside
Conviction level
Business cycle approach integrated throughout the entire investment process
Idea generation Hypothesis testing
Business cycle approach
12
Integrated throughout idea generation, hypothesis testing and investment decisions
Typical overweight style groups
Consumer cyclicalsFinancialsIndustrial cyclicalsGrowthCommoditiesGrowth defensivesValue defensives
Recovery
GDPRecession
Expansion Slowdown
Beta
Aiming for consistent outperformance in all market environments
Assessing company earnings and allocating to a style group Tilting the portfolio to suit current positioning in the cycle+
Source: Schroders. Stocks mentioned above are shown for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Investment process
Idea generation: bottom-up research, led by senior management meetings
13
Source: Schroders. As at 31 March 2018.
Network of local brokers across Europe
Since March 2016
- 520 management meetings
- 36 multi-city European field trips
- 18 European conferences and seminars
European conferences, seminars and conference calls
Meeting senior management in their office and at their sites
Investment process
Source: Schroders.
14
Hypothesis testing: the scientific method
Make observation
Develop general theories
Extracthypothesis
Design experiments
Collect data
A scientific process to test investment ideas
Accept
Reject
Construct conclusion
Investment process
Source: Schroders.
15
Hypothesis testing: the scientific method - typical hypotheses
Management are incentivised
Debt is feasible
We are protected on the downside
This is a “fat pitch”
Revenue growth is underestimated
Supply tostay flat
Competitive advantage is sustainable
Investment process
Source: Schroders.
16
Investment decision: bringing it all together
Investment decision
Position sizing
Business cycle skew
Fundamental riskframework
Conviction levelLiquidity
3-5 year upside or understand
downside
Target valuation
Opportunity cost
Company Last year
M&A /cash
dividends
end 2 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 5yr tota l -2 -1 1 2 -2 -1 1 2
Air Liquide Dec-12 3.1% 0% 20% 10% 14% 13% 10% 0% 11% 6% 10% 7% 8% 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 68% 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.8
Akzo Nobel Dec-12 3.3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% -25% 4% 4% 0% 3% 5% 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.7 521% 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 4.0 4.0 4.6 5.4
Arkema Dec-12 3.4% - - - - +ve -20% 0% 67% 30% 38% 17% 12% 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.5 507% 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 3.9 4.5 4.6 4.9
BASF Dec-12 4.1% 0% 21% 18% 50% 30% 0% -13% 29% 14% 4% 4% 4% 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.6 69% 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 5.7 5.3 5.5 5.7
Bayer Dec-12 2.8% -44% 10% 84% 5% 35% 4% 0% 7% 10% 15% 11% 10% 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 70% 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 6.6 6.9 6.7 6.9
Brenntag Dec-12 2.3% - - - - - - - +ve 43% 20% 9% 12% 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 680% 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.2 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.5
Clariant Dec-12 3.0% +ve -100% +ve 2% 1% -100% - - +ve 14% 6% 14% 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.4 - 2.0 2.3 1.0 0.7 2.4 2.3 3.1 3.5
DSM Dec-12 3.5% 0% 0% 14% 0% 20% 0% 0% 12% 7% 3% 3% 5% 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.0 255% 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.6 5.7 4.1 4.7 5.0
EMS Chemie Dec-12 3.2% 5% -49% 25% 10% 9% -15% 0% 30% 8% 7% 10% 7% 1.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 0.0 13% -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 8.4 9.2 9.1 9.2
Fuchs Petrolub Dec-12 2.0% 8% 6% 25% 43% 50% 7% 6% 59% 11% 28% -9% 12% 2.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 3.4 20% -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 8.5 9.1 9.3 9.0
Givaudan Dec-12 3.9% 10% 10% 80% 7% 4% 3% 9% 4% 2% 64% 12% 10% 2.2 1.3 1.7 2.6 2.1 -7% 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 6.8 7.3 7.4 7.6
K+S Dec-12 3.7% 0% 30% 38% 11% 0% 380% -91% 400% 30% 8% -7% 0% 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.3 2.0 181% 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.9
Kemira Oyj Dec-12 5.3% 10% 3% 6% 33% 4% -50% 19% 167% 10% 0% 3% 10% 1.4 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 162% 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.2
LANXESS Dec-12 2.2% - - - +ve 300% -50% 0% 40% 21% 18% 0% 20% 1.5 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.1 481% 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.2 3.7 4.6 3.9 4.6
Lenzing Dec-12 2.8% 50% 33% 0% 25% 40% 0% 0% -23% 61% -20% -15% 4% 2.2 2.2 2.6 1.9 3.0 44% 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.4 6.4 5.8 4.6 5.0
Linde Dec-12 2.3% 0% 11% 12% 12% 13% 6% 0% 22% 14% 8% 7% 10% 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 205% 1.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.4
Solvay Dec-12 3.3% 0% 6% 5% 5% 5% 0% 0% 5% 0% 39% 2% 4% 1.9 1.1 0.9 1.5 0.9 333% 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 2.9 3.8 3.7 4.1
Symrise Dec-12 2.6% - - - - +ve 0% 0% 20% 3% 5% 15% 7% 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 71% 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 7.5 7.7 7.8 8.0
Syngenta Dec-12 2.9% 90% 43% 47% 7% 30% 25% 0% 16% 14% 19% 8% 9% 2.3 3.1 1.9 1.6 1.9 41% 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.7
Tessenderlo ChemieDec-12 6.5% 0% 6% 0% 0% 6% 5% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.6 93% 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.9
UMICORE SA Dec-12 3.1% 14% 37% 30% 14% 55% 0% 0% 23% 25% 0% 5% 5% 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 30% 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0
Wacker Chemie Dec-12 1.3% - - +ve 25% 13% -20% -33% 167% -31% -73% -33% 96% 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.8 97% 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.4 6.0 4.3 2.4 2.7
Yara Intl Dec-12 4.2% - +ve 4% 6% 60% 13% 0% 22% 27% 86% -15% 2% 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 313% 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.1
Capex / Depreciation
Divide
nd Q-scoreDebt/EBITDADiv growth
– Example of the chemical sector, using selected data points– Allows a very rapid and unemotional assessment of the sustainability and growth potential of the
dividend– First stage before further investigation. Often induces questions for management– Always read with valuation in mind
Dividend sustainability database
17
Source: Schroders, as at 31 March 2013. Securities mentioned are shown for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Risk assessment vs. position size Companies are assessed over a number of operational and financial metrics
Portfolio constructionTaking intentional risk
18
Source: Bloomberg, as at 30 April 2015. Examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell.
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Small position, higher risk
Large position, higher risk
Small position, lower risk
Large position, lower riskAltran/Fortum
Abengoa
Incr
easi
ng
risk
Increasing position size
Delta Lloyd
Wienerberger
Bankia Inputs attempt to capture both operational gearing and balance sheet strength
Identify high risk stocks
Once risk has been assessed, both valuation and liquidity are taken into account
Portfolio construction informed by risk bands
Our investment process in action
Source: Schroders. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
19
Case study: PGS
Idea generation Hypothesis testing Investment decision
Outcome: PGS rerates on top line inflection
Met PGS management in Oslo
Introduced via brokers: Danske
What will move the share price?
FCF 2019 yield >20%
Schulumberger and Polarcus conference calls
Supply dramatically
affects pricing
ROCE for new
streamers?
Western Geco fleet
to exit
ROCE for new
streamers?
Downside: Material
Conviction: High
Business cycle skew: In line with cycle.
Liquidity: Adequate
Action:Bought PGS in February 2018Top 10 Holding
Upside: Very significant
Our investment process in action
20
Case study: IQE
Outcome: Strong growth prospects underestimated by the wider market
What drives the share price?Product range?
Revenue to significantly
increase
2022 revenue: £950m
CREO potential
Met divisional management and management of peers
Introduced via specialist technology broker: BTIG
Conference calls with industry experts, Schroders Asian technology analyst
Upside: Significant
Downside: Limited
Conviction: High
Business cycle skew: Against skew.
Liquidity: Adequate
What will move the share price?
ROCE for new
streamers?
Mass adoption of
VSCELs
Revenue to significantly
increase
2022 revenue: £950m
Check Apple & Android
supply chain for 3D
sensing
Idea generation Hypothesis testing Investment decision
Action:Bought IQE in March 2017Top 5 holding
Source: Schroders. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
Our investment process in action
21
Case study: Zurich
Upside: Medium
Downside: Protected
Conviction: High
Business cycle skew: In line with cycle.
Liquidity: Significant
Idea generation Hypothesis testing Investment decision
Outcome: insurer to re-rate from strengthening balance sheet
What drives the share price?Product range?
Revenue to significantly
increase
2022 revenue: £950m
CREO potential
What will move the share price?
ROCE for new
streamers?
Revenue to significantly
increase
Met Zurich management in Switzerland and London
Introduced via broker: KBW
Attended financial services conference in Surrey
Dividend yield
sustainable and grows
Is there excess capital?
Provisions conservative,
reserve releases
sustainable
Z-ECM, Solvency II & balance sheet
Action:Bought Zurich in November 2016Top 10 Holding
Source: Schroders. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
Our investment process in action
22
Case study: Bayer Pharmaceuticals
Introduced via broker: Kepler and UBS in London and Frankfurt
Conviction: Medium
Business cycle skew: In line with cycle.
Liquidity: Significant
Idea generation Hypothesis testing Investment decision
Outcome: Monsanto deal benefits not reflected in current share price
What drives the share price?Product range?
Revenue to significantly
increase
2022 revenue: £950m
CREO potential
What will move the share price?
ROCE for new
streamers?
Revenue to significantly
increase
Monsanto deal to unlock value,
crop cycle to recover
Regulatory approvals,
strategic merits? Farm profit
cycle
Met Bayer management in Frankfurt & Leverkusen
Attended UK conference
Secondary research into crop science.
Brazilian market dynamics
Shares undervalued
Action:Bought Bayer in April 2017Top 5 holding
Upside: Medium/significant
Downside: Protected
Source: Schroders. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
Market views
Implications of inflation
24
Source: Schroders.
Higher inflation =
higher nominal growth +
interest rates +
end of QE
Completely different portfolio
A completely different portfolio will be needed
– Expectations for inflation have fallen back again– This has been the key driver of the long underperformance of value stocks, especially financials– We expect this to change, Q4 2016 was a ‘practice run’– Previous mantra of “I buy good quality companies” has attracted assets, the result? these are incredibly
crowded trades
25
Source: Bloomberg, as at 25 April 2018. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Kepler Cheuvreux, as at March 2018.
Market questioning inflation’s return
Euro 5y5y forward inflation expectations
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
(Healthcare + Consumer Staples) / Stoxx 600
(Commodity-Sensitive + Financials + Industrials) / Stoxx 600
Reflationtrade!!!
Financial crisis
Defensive growth versus global and domestic value in Europe
Reflation tradeReflation trade
The components of employee nominal compensation in the Eurozone
26
% Yoy, pp
– Unemployment is now below the long-run median in the eurozone
– We can already identify pockets of actually quite high wage inflation (e.g. R&D engineers, Germany)
Source: Eurostat, Datastream, Kepler Cheuvreux, as at Q1 2018. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
Why is an inflation surprise coming?Even Europe now has a relatively tight labour market
-5-4-3-2-10123456
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Compensation per hour - contrib. Hours worked per employee - contrib.Number of employees - contrib. Employee nominal compensation
Capacity utilisation %
27
Source: JP Morgan, as at April 2018. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
Why is an inflation surprise coming?
- 10 years of underinvestment means that there is less slack in industrial assets than one thinks
- Our portfolio benefitted from many of these recoveries: UK brick prices are up 30% in 2 years
- This means pricing power = inflation
Capacity utilisation is at the cycle high
What do your clients own…?
28
Source: Schroders and Morningstar. Based on top 10 largest active funds in Europe ex-UK by AUM. Reflation trade refers to the period from 12 July 2016 to 27 January 2017 corresponding to the trough to peak move in inflation expectations as measured by the 5y5y forward.
Many clients had a poor experience during the “reflation trade”
Fund Size (£bn) 3 years to 12 July 2016 Reflation trade
Fund 1 4.6 Q1 Q4
Fund 2 3.1 Q2 Q4
Fund 3 2.7 Q1 Q1
Fund 4 2.6 Q2 Q4
Fund 5 2.6 Q1 Q4
Fund 6 2.4 Q2 Q3
Fund 7 2.1 Q4 Q3
Fund 8 2.0 Q1 Q2
Fund 9 1.8 Q1 Q4
Fund 10 1.7 Q2 Q4
Portfolio positioning
PositioningSchroder European Alpha Plus Fund
30
Source: Schroders, FactSet, as at 30 April 2018. Stocks shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
Business cycle relative weightingsTop 10 stocks Fund size: £396m
Stock Weight %
P/E FY1
P/E FY2
Dividend yield
Bayer 5.2 14.7 13.4 2.8
Orange 4.9 13.9 12.8 4.3
Telefonica 4.6 11.2 10.0 4.7
ING Group 4.2 10.5 9.9 4.8
KPN 4.1 21.5 18.4 4.9
Lundin Petroleum 4.1 23.3 25.2 1.2
Aurelius 4.0 13.3 12.2 7.0
Novo Nordisk 3.4 18.3 17.5 2.7
Zurich Insurance 3.0 12.8 11.2 5.7
AXA 2.8 9.0 8.6 5.2
-15.5
-7.0-5.0
2.64.9
5.1
9.6
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Gro
wth
Def
ensi
ve
Gro
wth
Ind
ust
rial
Cyc
lical
Co
nsu
mer
Cyc
lical
Co
mm
od
ity
Cyc
lical
Val
ue
Def
ensi
ve
Fin
anci
al
31
Source: Schroders, FactSet, as at 30 April 2018. 1Fund manager estimate for A Inc share class. Securities mentioned above are shown for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell.
PositioningSchroder European Alpha Income Fund
Stock Weight % P/E FY1 P/E FY2 Dividend
yield
Orange 5.3 13.9 12.8 4.3
Bayer 5.1 14.7 13.4 2.8
Telefonica 4.5 11.2 10.0 4.7
KPN 4.1 21.5 18.4 4.9
Altran Technologies 4.1 14.2 12.0 1.7
ING Groep 3.9 10.5 9.9 4.8
Lundin Petroleum 3.5 23.3 25.2 1.2
Ipsos 2.9 11.1 10.5 2.7
Bankinter 2.9 14.7 13.6 3.2
Zurich Insurance 2.9 12.8 11.2 5.7
Market cap weighting
Dividend style % Fund Net yield
Cyclical yield 30.4
3.6%1Growth yield 13.0
High yield 32.5
Stable yield 15.1
68.5
30.0
1.5
Large Cap (>€5bn) Mid Cap (€1-5bn) Small Cap (<€1bn)
Top 10 stocks Fund size: £1,388m
What we ownInflation protection
32
Source: Schroders. Percentages refer to the Schroder European Alpha Income fund as at April 2018.Sectors listed are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Other Value stocks is a subjective judgement by the fund manager based on future P/E, dividend and free cash flow yields and includes Lundin Petroleum, Bayer, Porr, Ahlsell, Bpost, Continental, Pandora, Dixons Carphone, Lagardere, Ipsos, Atea
FinancialsInsurance and banks
TelecommunicationsIncumbents over challengers
Other Value stocksShort duration
30%
15%
23%
Not expensive
Not over-owned
Not bond proxies
Not excessively cyclical
Inflation beneficiaries
Which financials?There are banks and there are banks…
33
*Dividend Yield includes buyback for DanskeSource for table: FactSet. Source for chart: KBW. As at April 2017. Forecast risk warning: Please see the information slide at the end of this presentation.Securities shown are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
Bank Equity ratio
Return on Equity (2018e)
Dividend yield*(2018e)
Bankinter 12% 13.3% 3.6%
Danske 16% 13.7% 4.7%
ING 14% 10.2% 4.9%
KBC 15% 17.1% 5.1%
Nordea 19% 12.0% 8.1%
Greek banks
ItalianPopulari The banks we own
decreasing risk
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
34
Source: Bloomberg. As at 24 April 2018. 1Stoxx Europe 600 Telecom relative to Stoxx Europe 600. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
Telecoms performance at an all time low…
previous relative low
new all time relative low...
Telecoms sector 30 year versus Stoxx Europe 600 relative performance1
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
DifferentRanking funds by Telecoms and Financials exposure
35
Source: Morningstar, Schroders. Data as at 31 March 2018. Report run as at 09 May 2018. Index is the FTSE Europe ex UK. Based on the IA Europe ex UK peer group. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell.
17/05
/2018
20:23
:51Rank Fund Name % Telecoms1 Fund 1 16.52 Fund 2 15.33 Schroder European Alpha Plus Z Acc 15.24 Fund 4 15.05 Schroder European Alpha Income Z Acc 14.66 Fund 6 13.37 Fund 7 12.48 Fund 8 11.99 Fund 9 11.5
10 Fund 10 10.5: : :: : :: : :
106 Fund 106 0.0
Rank Fund Name % Financials1 Fund 1 34.92 Fund 2 31.13 Fund 3 31.14 Fund 4 31.05 Fund 5 30.96 Schroder European Alpha Plus Z Acc 30.87 Fund 7 30.38 Fund 8 29.99 Fund 9 29.2
10 Fund 10 28.811 Schroder European Alpha Income Z Acc :28.7: : :: : :
106 Fund 106 0.0
Monthly fund updatesFund manager videos commenting on European markets
36
Source: Schroders.
Key points:
Conclusion
37
– On a relative basis European Value is still reasonable value
– This is relative to Growth stocks but especially compared to other asset classes
– Inflation rising will be the key to unlocking this Value
Other considerations:
– Inflation rising and value outperforming will be very painful for many European funds. And the market overall is not cheap in absolute terms
– The challenge is to access this without going too far down the quality curve or taking excessive cyclical risk
– Unlike elsewhere (the US) an active strategy has historically paid off in Continental Europe
– Schroder European Alpha Funds are well placed to access this opportunity
Source: Schroders.
Thank you
Appendix
Active or Passive in European Equities?
5Y rolling return Europe ex UK IA Sector1
41
Return (%)
Source: Morningstar Direct. 1Peer Group: Open End Funds – IA Sector – Europe Excluding UK, excluding Index Funds. Currency: Pound Sterling. *European tracker average = BlackRock -Continental European Equity Tracker, HSBC - European Index, L&G - European Index Trust, Vanguard - FTSE Developed Europe ex UK Equity Index (these represent 15% of the IA Eu ex UK AUM as at 30 June 2017).
Persistent active outperformance20 years of data
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Top quartile 2nd quartile 3rd quartile 4th quartile European tracker average*
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Percentage of total funds
42
Source: Morningstar Direct. As at June 2017. 1We define a successful fund as one that has been in existence for at least 10 years and has outperformed over that period. Morningstar Direct.
Distribution of ‘successful’ fund underperformance 2007–20171
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Years of underperformance
74% underperformed at least 4/10 years
75%Percentage of successful
funds that underperformed for 2 or more consecutive
years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17
% of funds outperforming European tracker…
43
Source: Morningstar Direct. Peer Group: Open End Funds – IA Sector – Europe Excluding UK, excluding Index Funds. *European tracker average = BlackRock - Continental European Equity Tracker, HSBC - European Index, L&G - European Index Trust, Vanguard - FTSE Developed Europe ex UK Equity Index (these represent 15% of the IA Eu ex UK AUM as at 30 June 2017). Most concentrated is defined as the 50% of funds with the fewest stocks. High tracking error funds are the 50% of funds with the highest tracking error in each quarter, and we rank passive funds against those funds future returns.
Percentage of active funds beating passive (5 year rolling)
Average index percentile rank
Average against concentrated fundsAverage against high tracking error funds
More active funds outperforming
Fewer active funds outperforming
44
Source: Scott, T. L. (2016). Performance and Active Fund Manager’s Personality – is there a connection? Unpublished, Birkbeck, University of London.
“People buy people…” 17/
05/
201
8
20:
23:
51
Performance
Openness to experience
Agreeableness
Conscientiousness
Extraversion
Neuroticism
Performance
Openness to experience
Extraversion
Looking elsewhere
Disclaimer
Marketing material for professional investors or advisors only. This material is not suitable for retail clients.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Schroders has expressed its own views and these may change. The data contained in this document has been sourced by Schroders and should be independently verified before further publication or use. This presentation is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect.
The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Unit Trusts Limited (Schroders) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for error of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions.
The forecasts included in this document should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date ofissue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. We accept no responsibility for any errors of fact or opinion and assume no obligation to provide you with any changes to our assumptions or forecasts. Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors.
FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. FTSE®” is a trade mark of London Stock Exchange Plc and The Financial Times Limited and is used by FTSE International Limited under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings vestin FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.
Issued in May 2018 by Schroder Unit Trusts Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA. Registered No: 4191730 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. PEE01091
45
Disclaimer
Schroder European Alpha Income Fund – risk factors:
As a result of fees being charged to capital, the distributable income of the fund may be higher but there is the potential thatperformance or capital value may be eroded.
The fund can be exposed to different currencies. Changes in foreign exchange rates could create losses.
Equity prices fluctuate daily, based on many factors including general, economic, industry or company news.
In difficult market conditions, the fund may not be able to sell a security for full value or at all. This could affect performance and could cause the fund to defer or suspend redemptions of its shares.
Failures at service providers could lead to disruptions of fund operations or losses.
Schroder European Alpha Plus Fund – risk factors:
Funds which invest in a smaller number of stocks can carry more risk than funds spread across a larger number of companies.
The fund can be exposed to different currencies. Changes in foreign exchange rates could create losses.
Equity prices fluctuate daily, based on many factors including general, economic, industry or company news.
In difficult market conditions, the fund may not be able to sell a security for full value or at all. This could affect performance and could cause the fund to defer or suspend redemptions of its shares.
Failures at service providers could lead to disruptions of fund operations or losses.
46
ContactAdvisory sales desk: +44 (0) 207 658 3894
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31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA.
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