science / environment · book design by charlotte staub. isbn 0-393-31637-8 (pbk) w.w . norton...
TRANSCRIPT
I
SCIENCE ENVIRONMENT
The global trends documented in Vital Signs 1997-from food supply 10 11111111111
health-will playa large part in determining the quality of our lives alld 0111 hll
drens lives in the next decade This sixth volume in the series from the Worldwatch Institute shows in ~ llIph
ic form the key trends that often escape the attention of the news media and wOllt
leaders-and that are often ignored by economic experts as they plall 101 11 future Written by the staff of the award-winning Worldwatch Institute lhis Iltlll lets readers track key indicators that show social economic and environllllnial progress or the lack of it This authoritative data has been distilled from lholl
sands of documents obtained from government industry scientists and iull fllIl
tional organizations into forty-five vital signs of our times Each year Vital Signs presents emerging trends in more than one hundI
clear and compelling charts tables and graphs accompanied by conci 4(middot
thoughtful analysis Among the findings Half the languages in the world are likely to become extinct in the comingshy
century By 2020 deaths from noncommunicable diseases will outnumber thos(
from communicable diseases by five lo one Financial losses from weather-related disasters hit arecord $60 billion lasl
year Despite arecord grain harvest in 1996 carryover stocks are still too low for
comfort after having been drawn down from 104 days to 51 days from 1987
to 1996 Whether you read Vital Signs for a preview of the next decade or to verify a
partiClllar trend you will find it comprehensive and authoritative Vital Signs is an
middotxcellent companion to Worldwatchs annual State ajthe Warld
VITAL SIGNS reg WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE reg
ISBN 0-393-31637-8
90QOOgt
WWNORTON
tgtlt1NrW YQRKmiddot 10NOON
$1200 USA $1599 CAN
234567890
j 7-- ~ C middot
L -
J()1rh
d I f
Copyright 1997 by Worldwatch Institute
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
First Edition
VITAL SIGNS and WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE trademarks are registered in the U S Patent
and Trademark Office
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of
the Worldwatch Institute of its directors officers or staff or of its funders
The text of this book is composed in Garth Graphie
with the display set in Industria Alternate
Composition by the Worldwatch Institute manufacturing by the Haddon Craftsmen Inc
Book design by Charlotte Staub
ISBN 0-393-31637-8 (pbk)
WW Norton amp Company Inc
500 Fifth Avenue New York NY 10110
WW Norlon amp Company Lid
10 Coplic SIreei London WCIA IPU
This book is prinled on recycled paper
o
11 WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Hunter Lewis Chairman 0ystein Dahle Hazel Henderson UNITED STATES NO RWAY UNITED STATES
Andrew E Rice Vice Chairman Herman Daly Abd-El Rahman Kham UNITED STATES UNITED STATES ALGERIA
Lester R Brown (Ex Officio) Orville L Freeman Larry Minear UNITED STATES UNlTED STKfES UNITED STATES
Carlo M Cipolla Lynne Gallagher Izaak van Meile lTALY UNlTED STATES THE NETHERLANDS
Edward S Cornish Mahbub ul Hag Wren Wirth UNlTED STATES PAKISTAN UNlTED STATES
WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE STAFF
Janet N Abramovitz Christopher Flavin Molly OMeara Ed Ayres Hilary F French Tara L Patterson Lori A Baldwin Gary Gardner James M Perry Jr Chris Bright Joseph Gravely Michael Renner Lester R Brown Millicent Johnson David Malin Roodmun Mary Caron Reah Janise Kauffman Curtis Runyan Suzanne Clift Anne Platt McGinn Cheri Sugal Elizabeth A Doherty Lama Malinowski Denise Byers Thommn Seth Dunn William H Mansfield III Amy Warehime Barbara Fallin Jennifer D Mitchell
OFFICERS
Lester R Brown Christopher Flavin Reah Janisc Kltlllllllllli
PRESIDENT SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT CORPOHATI SHtltlC IA11
RESEARCH
William H Mansfield III BarlJura Futil 11
SENIOR VICB PRESIDENT Hilary F French ASSISTANI TIIIIAl1 1111111
OPERATIONS VICE PRBSIDBNT RESEARCH
Worldwatch Database Disk
The data rom all graphs and tables contained in this book as weil as
rom those in all other Worldwatch publications of the past two years
are available on disk for use with IBM-compatible or Macintosh comshy
puters This includes data rom the State of the Word and Vital Signs se ries of books Worldwatch Papers Word Watch magazine
and the Environmental Alert series of books The data are formatted
(or use with spreadsheet software compatible with Lotus 1-2-3 version
~ including all Lotus spreadsheets Quattro Pro Excel SuperCalc
Qnd many others For IBM-compatibles a 32-inch (high-density) disk
is provided Information on how to order the Worldwatch Database
Dish CQn be found on the final page of this book
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 9 FOREWORD 11
OVERVIEW A YEAR OF CONTRASTS 15
Near-Record Energy Expansion 16
Carbon Emissions Set Record 16
Storms Rock Insurance Industry 17
Bike Output Tripie That of Cars 18
Food Security Deteriorating 18
The Growing Appetite for Protein 19 Economic Pace Picks Up 20
Population Growth Siowing 21
World Is Disarming 21
Part One KfY INUICATORS
FOOD TRENDS 25
World Grain Harvest Sets Record 26 Soybean Harvest Recovers to
Near-Record 28
Meat Production Growth Siows 30 Global Fish Catch Remains Steady 32 Grain Stocks Up Slightly 34
AGRICULTURAL RESOURCE TRENDS 37
Fertilizer Use Rising Again 38 Grain Area Jumps Sharply 40 Irrigated Area Up Slightly 42
CONTENTS
ENERGY TRENDS 45 Fossil Fuel Use Surges to New High 46 Nuclear Power Inches Up 48
Geothermal Power Rises 50
Wind Power Growth Continues 52 Solar Cell Shipments Keep Rising 54
AT M 0 S P HER I C T REN D S i I
Carbon Emissions Set New Rc(old lfi Sulfur and Nitrogen EmissiollH
Unchanged 60
Global Temperature Down Sliltlly 11J
62
Global Temperature Down Slightly Seth Dunn
The temperature of the atmosphere at the Earths surface averaged 15 32 degrees Celsius in 1996 according to preliminary figshyures placing it among the five warrnest years since data collection began in 1866 I (See Figure l) Though this is a slight drop from the 1995 high of 1540 degrees Celsius global temperatures have increased nearly half a degree since 19502
The 1990s are already the warrnest decade on record-averaging 01 degrees Celsius above the 1980s-according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA which collects the land and ocean surface-temperashyture measurements 3
The warmth of the current decade is parshyticularly remarkable because it has occurred in conjunction with several short-term natural and humanmade cooling effects These include the centurys largest volcanic event the 199 1 eruption of Mount Pinatubo the solar energy cycle which has been at a minishymum during the 1990s and atmospheric depletion of ozone now at record levels
More recent cooling influences also affectshyed 1996 temperatures The presence of La Nifia an upwelling of unusually cool waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean had a role in the temperature drop Also partly responsishyble was the reversal of the North Atlantic Oscillation a 30-year trend of cooling in Greenland and warming in North America and Europe leading to record precipitation and extreme cold events in the two latter regions during 1996
According to data from the Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia 1996 conshytinued an underlying upward trend begun in the mid-1970s with so me regions warming quickly Summer temperatures in northern Siberia are warmer than they have been in a millennium forcing boreal forests northward Antarctica has warmed at more than twice the average global rate during the last 50 years causing five of the continents ice shelves to disintegrate 8
Rising atmospheric temperatures interact dynamically with ocean processes Geological re cords and computer models
reveal that the oceans heat-carrying conveyor belt shifts suddenly in response to temperashyture changes- leading to abrupt climate changes such as dramatic cooling in northern Europe-which may reduce the ocean s abilishyty to absorb carbon 9 Warming also causes oceans [0 lose nitrate slowing the growth of carbon-assimilating phytoplankton 10
Many aquatic marine and terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to small temshyperature increases freshwater fish coral reefs and boreal forests are particularly at ri sk Warming moreover be haves synergisshytically with ozone depletion and acidification to compound ecological stresses 2 And it can feed on itself in certain inst~nces the loss of boreal forest and warming of tundra could release large amounts of carbon dioxide as weil as methane another potent greenhouse gas I )
Feedbacks from the ocean and biosphere as the atmosphere warms are examples of clishymates tendency to behave unexpec tedly when rapidly forced to change 14 Such surshyprises which have occurred in the past but are difficult to predict could increase the rate of warming-which is al ready expected to be the fastest seen in 10000 years S This clishymate instability poses serious and widespread risks to human hea lth according to a 1996 report prepared for the World Health Organization the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization 6
Evidence of the human fingerprint in clishymate change continues to strengthen with improved understanding of sulfates and other influences on the atmosphere s temperature17
(See Figure 2) A team led by Goddards James Hansen has clarified the relationship between these influences and observed global temperature changes and suggests there could be areturn to the warming trend as the La Nifia e ffect fades 8 Hansen believes there is a high likelihood that another temperashyture record will be set before the end of the century9
GLOBAL AVEHAGE TEMPERATURE 1950-96
YEAR TEMPERATURE IclcgrEeS Celsius)
1950 1486
1955 1492
1960 1498
1965 1488 1966 1495 1967 1499 1968 1493 1969 1505 1970 1502 1971 1493 1972 1500 1973 15 11 1974 1492 1975 1492 1976 14middot82 1977 1511 1978 1505 1979 1509 1980 15 18 1981 1529 1982 15 08 1983 1524 1984 15 11 1985 1509 1986 1516 1987 1527 1988 1528 1989 1522 1990 1539 1991 1536 1992 1511 1993 1514 1994 1523 1995 1540 1996 (preI) 1532 SoUltCE Goddard Inst itut( (or Sp~umiddotc Sludics New York 14 jnnuary 1997
_J Degrees Celsius
1550 -r----------shy________--
15 30 I _I I
Souree Goddard Institute for Spaee Studies
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Figure 1 Average Temperature at the Ealths Surface 1950-96
2000
Degrees Celsius 30 --shy- ---shy___________--
Souree Hadley Center
251shy1-shy----shy-shy- -shy- ------l Projeeted Wit lOut bull
2 0 I Sulfate Correetiol1 15r-------~Lmiddot~ ~ 10 shy
amp~_
05 I -1 ~o leeeq_
o Ittbulltlijr~iJ~middot -~ j ~~ c c v
-05 +I-----r------------ 1860 1900 1940 1980 2020
Figule 2 Models of Global Warming Compared With Observations 1863 - 2047
2060
VitAl Signs 1UI 111
Notes
20 International Energy Agency World Energy Outook 1996 Edition (Paris 1996)
21 Nations Urged To Pass Laws On Emissions New Yorh Times 19 July 1996
SULFUR AND NITROGEN EMISSIONS UNCHANGED (pages 60-61)
1 Dr Jane Dignon Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA unpublished data series letter to author 22 January 1997 Sultan Hameed and Jane Dignon Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides in Fossil Fuel Combustion 1970- 86 journal o( the Air and Waste Management AssociatioJ1 February 1992
2 For a discussion of the methodology used to creshyate this data set see Sultan Hameed and Jane Dignon Changes in the Geographical Distributions of Global Emissions of NO and SO x from Fossil Fuel Combustion between 1966 and 1980 Almospheric Ellvironmellt 22 no 3 (1988) 441middot49 Jan e Dignon and Sultan J-Iameed Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides from 1860 to 1980 jAPCA February 1989
3 Dignon op cil note 1 4 Helen M ApSimon and David Cowell The
Benefits of Reduced Damage to Buildings from Abalement of Sulfur Dioxide Emi ssions Ellergy Policy July 1996
5 Hameed and Dignon op eil note I 6 Mare Levy European Acid Rain The Power of
TotemiddotBoard Diplomacy in Peter M Haas el lt11 eds [llslilutiol1s (or the Earth (Cambridge MA The MIT Press 1993)
7 Environmental Protection Agencys 1996 Auclion of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Coal We eh 1 April 1996 JeH Bailey Electric Utilities Are Overcomplying With Clean Air Act Wall Sireet Journal 15 Nove mber 1995
8 Environmental Protection Agency EPA Report Shows Americans Breathing Cleaner Air While Economy Grows press release Washington DC 17 December 1996
9 EU Air Pollution Down in Early 1990s Reuler European Commwlity Reporl 22 July 1996
10 Per Elv ingson Declaration Promises Unkept Acid News December 1996
11 Authorities Reveal 3 Million Deaths Linked to IIIness from Urban Air Pollution and More than 70000 Industrial Polluters Targeted for
Nota8
Closure unde r New Crackdown both in International Envirollment Reporter 30 October 1996 China Adopts Effective Measures to Curb Pollution XillHla News Agellcy 14 October 1996
12 India to Shut Polluters Near Taj Wall Street journal 31 Dece mber 1996
13 Peter M Vitousek et al Human Alteration of the Global Nitrogen Cycle Causes and Consequences (draft) Ecolog ica I Issues in press
14 Robart Howarth ed Nitrogen Cycl ing in the North Atlantic Ocean and Its Watersheds Report of the International SCOPE Nitrogen Project Biogeochemislry October 1996 (special issue) I
15 DW Schindler and SE Bayley The Biosphere as an Increasing Sink for Atmospheric Carbon Es timates from Increas ing Nitrogen Deposition Global Biogeochemislry Cycles vol 7 (1993)
16 David Weldin and David T il man Influence of Nitrogen Loading and Species Composition on the Carbon Balance of Grasslands Science 6 December 1996
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DOWN SLIGHTLY (pages 62-63)
1 James l-iansen et al Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Air Temperature Analyses Globa l Land-Ocean Temperature Index as posted at lthttpwwwgissnasa govlDataGISTEMPgt viewed 14 January 1997 R Monastersky 1996 Year of Warmth and Weather Reve rsals Science News 18 January 1997
2 Hansen et al op eil note 1 3 Juumlmes Hansen et al 1996 Tempera ture
Observa ti ons as posted at lt http www giss nasa gov IResea rc hObserves u r ft e m p htmgt viewed 14 January 1997
4Ibid 5 Hansen et al op eil note 1 William K
Stevens Global Climate Stayed Warm in 1996 With Wet Cold Regional Surprises New Yorh Times 14 January 1997
6 David Parker and Phi I Jones Global Climate 1996-Not As Warm as 1995 U K Me teo rological Office J-Iadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and University of East Anglia Climatic Research
Unit 15 ]anuary 1997 7 Keith R Briffa et al Unusual 1Wentiethshy
Century Warmth in a 1000-Year Temperature Record from Siberia Nature 13 July 1995 Fred Pearce Lure of the Rings New Scientist 14 December 1996
8 DG Vaughan and CSM Doake Recent Atmospheric Warming and Retreat of ce Shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula Nature 25 January 1996
9 Wallace S Broec ker C haotic Climate Scientific Amelcan November 1995 Jorge L Sarmiento and Corinne Le Quere Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Model of CenturyshyScale Global Warming Science 22 November 1996 Fred Pearce Wi ll a Sea Change Thrn Up the Heat New Scienlist 30 November 1996
10 Louis A Codispoti Is the Ocean Losing Nitrate Nature 31 August 1995
11 RT Watson et al ed s Climale Change 1995 Impa cts Adaptalions and Mitigation Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on C1imate Change (Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press 1996) Chris Bright Traeking the Ecology of Climate Change in Lester R Brown et al State o( the World 1997 (New York W W Norton amp Company 1997)
12 David W Schindler et al Consequences of Climate Warming and Lake Acidification for UV-B Penetration in North American Boreal Lakes Nature 22 February 1996 Frecl Pearce Canadian Lakes Suffer Tripie Blow New Scientist 24 February 1996
13 George M Woodwell and Fred T MacKenzie Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climatic System Will the Warming Feed the Warming (New York Oxford U niversi ty Press 1995)
14 ]T J-Ioughton et al eds Climate Change 1995 The Science o( Climale Change Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press 1996)
15 Ibid 16 AJ McMichael et al eds Climate Change alld
Human Health prepared by a Task Group on behalf of the World Health Organization (WHO) World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme (Geneva WJ-IO 1996)
17 BD Santer et al A Senreh for Human Influences on the Thermal Structu re of the
Atmosphere and NevilJe N ilt gt11 All Incriminating Fingerprint both ill NIIIII 4shyJuly 1996 Richard A Kerr SkY-lliflh l illltliJl~~ Drop New J-lints of Greenhou~t WUlng Science 5 July 1996 Figure 2 from Th IIlldlcy Centre for Climate Predietion anel H(~c ICh Modeling Climate Change 1860-2050 (Brlll kllcll U K The Meteorological Office 1IHuaIY 1995)
18 J Hansen et a l A Pinatubo elimat Modcling Investigation in G Fiocco D Fua 11111 G Visconti ed s Global Environmenta Callge (Berlin Springer-Verlag 1996)
19 J-Iansen et al op eil note 3
WORLD ECONOMY EXPANDS FA S T E R (pages 66-67)
1 Internationa l Monetary Fund (IMIf) World Economic Outlooh October 1996 (Washington DC 1996)
2Ibid 3Ibid 4Ibid 5Ibid 6Ibid 7Ibid 8 Andrew Pollack The Question Facing Japall
Can its Vibrant Engine Ever Be Restarted Nil
York Times 2 January 1997 9 IMF op eil note 1
IOIbid 11 Ibid 12 Ibid 13 Ibid 14 Vietnamese Economy At A Crossroad~
journal o( Commerce 21 June 1996 15 IMF op eil note 1 16Ibid 17 Ibid 18 Ibid 19 Ibid 20 Mexican Output Rises 74 Eclipsill)lt
Economic Forecasts New Yorh Times i November 1996
21 IMF op eil note 1 22 Ibid 23 Ibid 24 Ibid 25 Ibid 26 Ibid 27 Ibid
142
234567890
j 7-- ~ C middot
L -
J()1rh
d I f
Copyright 1997 by Worldwatch Institute
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
First Edition
VITAL SIGNS and WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE trademarks are registered in the U S Patent
and Trademark Office
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of
the Worldwatch Institute of its directors officers or staff or of its funders
The text of this book is composed in Garth Graphie
with the display set in Industria Alternate
Composition by the Worldwatch Institute manufacturing by the Haddon Craftsmen Inc
Book design by Charlotte Staub
ISBN 0-393-31637-8 (pbk)
WW Norton amp Company Inc
500 Fifth Avenue New York NY 10110
WW Norlon amp Company Lid
10 Coplic SIreei London WCIA IPU
This book is prinled on recycled paper
o
11 WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Hunter Lewis Chairman 0ystein Dahle Hazel Henderson UNITED STATES NO RWAY UNITED STATES
Andrew E Rice Vice Chairman Herman Daly Abd-El Rahman Kham UNITED STATES UNITED STATES ALGERIA
Lester R Brown (Ex Officio) Orville L Freeman Larry Minear UNITED STATES UNlTED STKfES UNITED STATES
Carlo M Cipolla Lynne Gallagher Izaak van Meile lTALY UNlTED STATES THE NETHERLANDS
Edward S Cornish Mahbub ul Hag Wren Wirth UNlTED STATES PAKISTAN UNlTED STATES
WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE STAFF
Janet N Abramovitz Christopher Flavin Molly OMeara Ed Ayres Hilary F French Tara L Patterson Lori A Baldwin Gary Gardner James M Perry Jr Chris Bright Joseph Gravely Michael Renner Lester R Brown Millicent Johnson David Malin Roodmun Mary Caron Reah Janise Kauffman Curtis Runyan Suzanne Clift Anne Platt McGinn Cheri Sugal Elizabeth A Doherty Lama Malinowski Denise Byers Thommn Seth Dunn William H Mansfield III Amy Warehime Barbara Fallin Jennifer D Mitchell
OFFICERS
Lester R Brown Christopher Flavin Reah Janisc Kltlllllllllli
PRESIDENT SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT CORPOHATI SHtltlC IA11
RESEARCH
William H Mansfield III BarlJura Futil 11
SENIOR VICB PRESIDENT Hilary F French ASSISTANI TIIIIAl1 1111111
OPERATIONS VICE PRBSIDBNT RESEARCH
Worldwatch Database Disk
The data rom all graphs and tables contained in this book as weil as
rom those in all other Worldwatch publications of the past two years
are available on disk for use with IBM-compatible or Macintosh comshy
puters This includes data rom the State of the Word and Vital Signs se ries of books Worldwatch Papers Word Watch magazine
and the Environmental Alert series of books The data are formatted
(or use with spreadsheet software compatible with Lotus 1-2-3 version
~ including all Lotus spreadsheets Quattro Pro Excel SuperCalc
Qnd many others For IBM-compatibles a 32-inch (high-density) disk
is provided Information on how to order the Worldwatch Database
Dish CQn be found on the final page of this book
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 9 FOREWORD 11
OVERVIEW A YEAR OF CONTRASTS 15
Near-Record Energy Expansion 16
Carbon Emissions Set Record 16
Storms Rock Insurance Industry 17
Bike Output Tripie That of Cars 18
Food Security Deteriorating 18
The Growing Appetite for Protein 19 Economic Pace Picks Up 20
Population Growth Siowing 21
World Is Disarming 21
Part One KfY INUICATORS
FOOD TRENDS 25
World Grain Harvest Sets Record 26 Soybean Harvest Recovers to
Near-Record 28
Meat Production Growth Siows 30 Global Fish Catch Remains Steady 32 Grain Stocks Up Slightly 34
AGRICULTURAL RESOURCE TRENDS 37
Fertilizer Use Rising Again 38 Grain Area Jumps Sharply 40 Irrigated Area Up Slightly 42
CONTENTS
ENERGY TRENDS 45 Fossil Fuel Use Surges to New High 46 Nuclear Power Inches Up 48
Geothermal Power Rises 50
Wind Power Growth Continues 52 Solar Cell Shipments Keep Rising 54
AT M 0 S P HER I C T REN D S i I
Carbon Emissions Set New Rc(old lfi Sulfur and Nitrogen EmissiollH
Unchanged 60
Global Temperature Down Sliltlly 11J
62
Global Temperature Down Slightly Seth Dunn
The temperature of the atmosphere at the Earths surface averaged 15 32 degrees Celsius in 1996 according to preliminary figshyures placing it among the five warrnest years since data collection began in 1866 I (See Figure l) Though this is a slight drop from the 1995 high of 1540 degrees Celsius global temperatures have increased nearly half a degree since 19502
The 1990s are already the warrnest decade on record-averaging 01 degrees Celsius above the 1980s-according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA which collects the land and ocean surface-temperashyture measurements 3
The warmth of the current decade is parshyticularly remarkable because it has occurred in conjunction with several short-term natural and humanmade cooling effects These include the centurys largest volcanic event the 199 1 eruption of Mount Pinatubo the solar energy cycle which has been at a minishymum during the 1990s and atmospheric depletion of ozone now at record levels
More recent cooling influences also affectshyed 1996 temperatures The presence of La Nifia an upwelling of unusually cool waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean had a role in the temperature drop Also partly responsishyble was the reversal of the North Atlantic Oscillation a 30-year trend of cooling in Greenland and warming in North America and Europe leading to record precipitation and extreme cold events in the two latter regions during 1996
According to data from the Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia 1996 conshytinued an underlying upward trend begun in the mid-1970s with so me regions warming quickly Summer temperatures in northern Siberia are warmer than they have been in a millennium forcing boreal forests northward Antarctica has warmed at more than twice the average global rate during the last 50 years causing five of the continents ice shelves to disintegrate 8
Rising atmospheric temperatures interact dynamically with ocean processes Geological re cords and computer models
reveal that the oceans heat-carrying conveyor belt shifts suddenly in response to temperashyture changes- leading to abrupt climate changes such as dramatic cooling in northern Europe-which may reduce the ocean s abilishyty to absorb carbon 9 Warming also causes oceans [0 lose nitrate slowing the growth of carbon-assimilating phytoplankton 10
Many aquatic marine and terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to small temshyperature increases freshwater fish coral reefs and boreal forests are particularly at ri sk Warming moreover be haves synergisshytically with ozone depletion and acidification to compound ecological stresses 2 And it can feed on itself in certain inst~nces the loss of boreal forest and warming of tundra could release large amounts of carbon dioxide as weil as methane another potent greenhouse gas I )
Feedbacks from the ocean and biosphere as the atmosphere warms are examples of clishymates tendency to behave unexpec tedly when rapidly forced to change 14 Such surshyprises which have occurred in the past but are difficult to predict could increase the rate of warming-which is al ready expected to be the fastest seen in 10000 years S This clishymate instability poses serious and widespread risks to human hea lth according to a 1996 report prepared for the World Health Organization the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization 6
Evidence of the human fingerprint in clishymate change continues to strengthen with improved understanding of sulfates and other influences on the atmosphere s temperature17
(See Figure 2) A team led by Goddards James Hansen has clarified the relationship between these influences and observed global temperature changes and suggests there could be areturn to the warming trend as the La Nifia e ffect fades 8 Hansen believes there is a high likelihood that another temperashyture record will be set before the end of the century9
GLOBAL AVEHAGE TEMPERATURE 1950-96
YEAR TEMPERATURE IclcgrEeS Celsius)
1950 1486
1955 1492
1960 1498
1965 1488 1966 1495 1967 1499 1968 1493 1969 1505 1970 1502 1971 1493 1972 1500 1973 15 11 1974 1492 1975 1492 1976 14middot82 1977 1511 1978 1505 1979 1509 1980 15 18 1981 1529 1982 15 08 1983 1524 1984 15 11 1985 1509 1986 1516 1987 1527 1988 1528 1989 1522 1990 1539 1991 1536 1992 1511 1993 1514 1994 1523 1995 1540 1996 (preI) 1532 SoUltCE Goddard Inst itut( (or Sp~umiddotc Sludics New York 14 jnnuary 1997
_J Degrees Celsius
1550 -r----------shy________--
15 30 I _I I
Souree Goddard Institute for Spaee Studies
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Figure 1 Average Temperature at the Ealths Surface 1950-96
2000
Degrees Celsius 30 --shy- ---shy___________--
Souree Hadley Center
251shy1-shy----shy-shy- -shy- ------l Projeeted Wit lOut bull
2 0 I Sulfate Correetiol1 15r-------~Lmiddot~ ~ 10 shy
amp~_
05 I -1 ~o leeeq_
o Ittbulltlijr~iJ~middot -~ j ~~ c c v
-05 +I-----r------------ 1860 1900 1940 1980 2020
Figule 2 Models of Global Warming Compared With Observations 1863 - 2047
2060
VitAl Signs 1UI 111
Notes
20 International Energy Agency World Energy Outook 1996 Edition (Paris 1996)
21 Nations Urged To Pass Laws On Emissions New Yorh Times 19 July 1996
SULFUR AND NITROGEN EMISSIONS UNCHANGED (pages 60-61)
1 Dr Jane Dignon Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA unpublished data series letter to author 22 January 1997 Sultan Hameed and Jane Dignon Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides in Fossil Fuel Combustion 1970- 86 journal o( the Air and Waste Management AssociatioJ1 February 1992
2 For a discussion of the methodology used to creshyate this data set see Sultan Hameed and Jane Dignon Changes in the Geographical Distributions of Global Emissions of NO and SO x from Fossil Fuel Combustion between 1966 and 1980 Almospheric Ellvironmellt 22 no 3 (1988) 441middot49 Jan e Dignon and Sultan J-Iameed Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides from 1860 to 1980 jAPCA February 1989
3 Dignon op cil note 1 4 Helen M ApSimon and David Cowell The
Benefits of Reduced Damage to Buildings from Abalement of Sulfur Dioxide Emi ssions Ellergy Policy July 1996
5 Hameed and Dignon op eil note I 6 Mare Levy European Acid Rain The Power of
TotemiddotBoard Diplomacy in Peter M Haas el lt11 eds [llslilutiol1s (or the Earth (Cambridge MA The MIT Press 1993)
7 Environmental Protection Agencys 1996 Auclion of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Coal We eh 1 April 1996 JeH Bailey Electric Utilities Are Overcomplying With Clean Air Act Wall Sireet Journal 15 Nove mber 1995
8 Environmental Protection Agency EPA Report Shows Americans Breathing Cleaner Air While Economy Grows press release Washington DC 17 December 1996
9 EU Air Pollution Down in Early 1990s Reuler European Commwlity Reporl 22 July 1996
10 Per Elv ingson Declaration Promises Unkept Acid News December 1996
11 Authorities Reveal 3 Million Deaths Linked to IIIness from Urban Air Pollution and More than 70000 Industrial Polluters Targeted for
Nota8
Closure unde r New Crackdown both in International Envirollment Reporter 30 October 1996 China Adopts Effective Measures to Curb Pollution XillHla News Agellcy 14 October 1996
12 India to Shut Polluters Near Taj Wall Street journal 31 Dece mber 1996
13 Peter M Vitousek et al Human Alteration of the Global Nitrogen Cycle Causes and Consequences (draft) Ecolog ica I Issues in press
14 Robart Howarth ed Nitrogen Cycl ing in the North Atlantic Ocean and Its Watersheds Report of the International SCOPE Nitrogen Project Biogeochemislry October 1996 (special issue) I
15 DW Schindler and SE Bayley The Biosphere as an Increasing Sink for Atmospheric Carbon Es timates from Increas ing Nitrogen Deposition Global Biogeochemislry Cycles vol 7 (1993)
16 David Weldin and David T il man Influence of Nitrogen Loading and Species Composition on the Carbon Balance of Grasslands Science 6 December 1996
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DOWN SLIGHTLY (pages 62-63)
1 James l-iansen et al Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Air Temperature Analyses Globa l Land-Ocean Temperature Index as posted at lthttpwwwgissnasa govlDataGISTEMPgt viewed 14 January 1997 R Monastersky 1996 Year of Warmth and Weather Reve rsals Science News 18 January 1997
2 Hansen et al op eil note 1 3 Juumlmes Hansen et al 1996 Tempera ture
Observa ti ons as posted at lt http www giss nasa gov IResea rc hObserves u r ft e m p htmgt viewed 14 January 1997
4Ibid 5 Hansen et al op eil note 1 William K
Stevens Global Climate Stayed Warm in 1996 With Wet Cold Regional Surprises New Yorh Times 14 January 1997
6 David Parker and Phi I Jones Global Climate 1996-Not As Warm as 1995 U K Me teo rological Office J-Iadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and University of East Anglia Climatic Research
Unit 15 ]anuary 1997 7 Keith R Briffa et al Unusual 1Wentiethshy
Century Warmth in a 1000-Year Temperature Record from Siberia Nature 13 July 1995 Fred Pearce Lure of the Rings New Scientist 14 December 1996
8 DG Vaughan and CSM Doake Recent Atmospheric Warming and Retreat of ce Shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula Nature 25 January 1996
9 Wallace S Broec ker C haotic Climate Scientific Amelcan November 1995 Jorge L Sarmiento and Corinne Le Quere Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Model of CenturyshyScale Global Warming Science 22 November 1996 Fred Pearce Wi ll a Sea Change Thrn Up the Heat New Scienlist 30 November 1996
10 Louis A Codispoti Is the Ocean Losing Nitrate Nature 31 August 1995
11 RT Watson et al ed s Climale Change 1995 Impa cts Adaptalions and Mitigation Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on C1imate Change (Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press 1996) Chris Bright Traeking the Ecology of Climate Change in Lester R Brown et al State o( the World 1997 (New York W W Norton amp Company 1997)
12 David W Schindler et al Consequences of Climate Warming and Lake Acidification for UV-B Penetration in North American Boreal Lakes Nature 22 February 1996 Frecl Pearce Canadian Lakes Suffer Tripie Blow New Scientist 24 February 1996
13 George M Woodwell and Fred T MacKenzie Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climatic System Will the Warming Feed the Warming (New York Oxford U niversi ty Press 1995)
14 ]T J-Ioughton et al eds Climate Change 1995 The Science o( Climale Change Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press 1996)
15 Ibid 16 AJ McMichael et al eds Climate Change alld
Human Health prepared by a Task Group on behalf of the World Health Organization (WHO) World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme (Geneva WJ-IO 1996)
17 BD Santer et al A Senreh for Human Influences on the Thermal Structu re of the
Atmosphere and NevilJe N ilt gt11 All Incriminating Fingerprint both ill NIIIII 4shyJuly 1996 Richard A Kerr SkY-lliflh l illltliJl~~ Drop New J-lints of Greenhou~t WUlng Science 5 July 1996 Figure 2 from Th IIlldlcy Centre for Climate Predietion anel H(~c ICh Modeling Climate Change 1860-2050 (Brlll kllcll U K The Meteorological Office 1IHuaIY 1995)
18 J Hansen et a l A Pinatubo elimat Modcling Investigation in G Fiocco D Fua 11111 G Visconti ed s Global Environmenta Callge (Berlin Springer-Verlag 1996)
19 J-Iansen et al op eil note 3
WORLD ECONOMY EXPANDS FA S T E R (pages 66-67)
1 Internationa l Monetary Fund (IMIf) World Economic Outlooh October 1996 (Washington DC 1996)
2Ibid 3Ibid 4Ibid 5Ibid 6Ibid 7Ibid 8 Andrew Pollack The Question Facing Japall
Can its Vibrant Engine Ever Be Restarted Nil
York Times 2 January 1997 9 IMF op eil note 1
IOIbid 11 Ibid 12 Ibid 13 Ibid 14 Vietnamese Economy At A Crossroad~
journal o( Commerce 21 June 1996 15 IMF op eil note 1 16Ibid 17 Ibid 18 Ibid 19 Ibid 20 Mexican Output Rises 74 Eclipsill)lt
Economic Forecasts New Yorh Times i November 1996
21 IMF op eil note 1 22 Ibid 23 Ibid 24 Ibid 25 Ibid 26 Ibid 27 Ibid
142
Worldwatch Database Disk
The data rom all graphs and tables contained in this book as weil as
rom those in all other Worldwatch publications of the past two years
are available on disk for use with IBM-compatible or Macintosh comshy
puters This includes data rom the State of the Word and Vital Signs se ries of books Worldwatch Papers Word Watch magazine
and the Environmental Alert series of books The data are formatted
(or use with spreadsheet software compatible with Lotus 1-2-3 version
~ including all Lotus spreadsheets Quattro Pro Excel SuperCalc
Qnd many others For IBM-compatibles a 32-inch (high-density) disk
is provided Information on how to order the Worldwatch Database
Dish CQn be found on the final page of this book
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 9 FOREWORD 11
OVERVIEW A YEAR OF CONTRASTS 15
Near-Record Energy Expansion 16
Carbon Emissions Set Record 16
Storms Rock Insurance Industry 17
Bike Output Tripie That of Cars 18
Food Security Deteriorating 18
The Growing Appetite for Protein 19 Economic Pace Picks Up 20
Population Growth Siowing 21
World Is Disarming 21
Part One KfY INUICATORS
FOOD TRENDS 25
World Grain Harvest Sets Record 26 Soybean Harvest Recovers to
Near-Record 28
Meat Production Growth Siows 30 Global Fish Catch Remains Steady 32 Grain Stocks Up Slightly 34
AGRICULTURAL RESOURCE TRENDS 37
Fertilizer Use Rising Again 38 Grain Area Jumps Sharply 40 Irrigated Area Up Slightly 42
CONTENTS
ENERGY TRENDS 45 Fossil Fuel Use Surges to New High 46 Nuclear Power Inches Up 48
Geothermal Power Rises 50
Wind Power Growth Continues 52 Solar Cell Shipments Keep Rising 54
AT M 0 S P HER I C T REN D S i I
Carbon Emissions Set New Rc(old lfi Sulfur and Nitrogen EmissiollH
Unchanged 60
Global Temperature Down Sliltlly 11J
62
Global Temperature Down Slightly Seth Dunn
The temperature of the atmosphere at the Earths surface averaged 15 32 degrees Celsius in 1996 according to preliminary figshyures placing it among the five warrnest years since data collection began in 1866 I (See Figure l) Though this is a slight drop from the 1995 high of 1540 degrees Celsius global temperatures have increased nearly half a degree since 19502
The 1990s are already the warrnest decade on record-averaging 01 degrees Celsius above the 1980s-according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA which collects the land and ocean surface-temperashyture measurements 3
The warmth of the current decade is parshyticularly remarkable because it has occurred in conjunction with several short-term natural and humanmade cooling effects These include the centurys largest volcanic event the 199 1 eruption of Mount Pinatubo the solar energy cycle which has been at a minishymum during the 1990s and atmospheric depletion of ozone now at record levels
More recent cooling influences also affectshyed 1996 temperatures The presence of La Nifia an upwelling of unusually cool waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean had a role in the temperature drop Also partly responsishyble was the reversal of the North Atlantic Oscillation a 30-year trend of cooling in Greenland and warming in North America and Europe leading to record precipitation and extreme cold events in the two latter regions during 1996
According to data from the Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia 1996 conshytinued an underlying upward trend begun in the mid-1970s with so me regions warming quickly Summer temperatures in northern Siberia are warmer than they have been in a millennium forcing boreal forests northward Antarctica has warmed at more than twice the average global rate during the last 50 years causing five of the continents ice shelves to disintegrate 8
Rising atmospheric temperatures interact dynamically with ocean processes Geological re cords and computer models
reveal that the oceans heat-carrying conveyor belt shifts suddenly in response to temperashyture changes- leading to abrupt climate changes such as dramatic cooling in northern Europe-which may reduce the ocean s abilishyty to absorb carbon 9 Warming also causes oceans [0 lose nitrate slowing the growth of carbon-assimilating phytoplankton 10
Many aquatic marine and terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to small temshyperature increases freshwater fish coral reefs and boreal forests are particularly at ri sk Warming moreover be haves synergisshytically with ozone depletion and acidification to compound ecological stresses 2 And it can feed on itself in certain inst~nces the loss of boreal forest and warming of tundra could release large amounts of carbon dioxide as weil as methane another potent greenhouse gas I )
Feedbacks from the ocean and biosphere as the atmosphere warms are examples of clishymates tendency to behave unexpec tedly when rapidly forced to change 14 Such surshyprises which have occurred in the past but are difficult to predict could increase the rate of warming-which is al ready expected to be the fastest seen in 10000 years S This clishymate instability poses serious and widespread risks to human hea lth according to a 1996 report prepared for the World Health Organization the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization 6
Evidence of the human fingerprint in clishymate change continues to strengthen with improved understanding of sulfates and other influences on the atmosphere s temperature17
(See Figure 2) A team led by Goddards James Hansen has clarified the relationship between these influences and observed global temperature changes and suggests there could be areturn to the warming trend as the La Nifia e ffect fades 8 Hansen believes there is a high likelihood that another temperashyture record will be set before the end of the century9
GLOBAL AVEHAGE TEMPERATURE 1950-96
YEAR TEMPERATURE IclcgrEeS Celsius)
1950 1486
1955 1492
1960 1498
1965 1488 1966 1495 1967 1499 1968 1493 1969 1505 1970 1502 1971 1493 1972 1500 1973 15 11 1974 1492 1975 1492 1976 14middot82 1977 1511 1978 1505 1979 1509 1980 15 18 1981 1529 1982 15 08 1983 1524 1984 15 11 1985 1509 1986 1516 1987 1527 1988 1528 1989 1522 1990 1539 1991 1536 1992 1511 1993 1514 1994 1523 1995 1540 1996 (preI) 1532 SoUltCE Goddard Inst itut( (or Sp~umiddotc Sludics New York 14 jnnuary 1997
_J Degrees Celsius
1550 -r----------shy________--
15 30 I _I I
Souree Goddard Institute for Spaee Studies
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Figure 1 Average Temperature at the Ealths Surface 1950-96
2000
Degrees Celsius 30 --shy- ---shy___________--
Souree Hadley Center
251shy1-shy----shy-shy- -shy- ------l Projeeted Wit lOut bull
2 0 I Sulfate Correetiol1 15r-------~Lmiddot~ ~ 10 shy
amp~_
05 I -1 ~o leeeq_
o Ittbulltlijr~iJ~middot -~ j ~~ c c v
-05 +I-----r------------ 1860 1900 1940 1980 2020
Figule 2 Models of Global Warming Compared With Observations 1863 - 2047
2060
VitAl Signs 1UI 111
Notes
20 International Energy Agency World Energy Outook 1996 Edition (Paris 1996)
21 Nations Urged To Pass Laws On Emissions New Yorh Times 19 July 1996
SULFUR AND NITROGEN EMISSIONS UNCHANGED (pages 60-61)
1 Dr Jane Dignon Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA unpublished data series letter to author 22 January 1997 Sultan Hameed and Jane Dignon Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides in Fossil Fuel Combustion 1970- 86 journal o( the Air and Waste Management AssociatioJ1 February 1992
2 For a discussion of the methodology used to creshyate this data set see Sultan Hameed and Jane Dignon Changes in the Geographical Distributions of Global Emissions of NO and SO x from Fossil Fuel Combustion between 1966 and 1980 Almospheric Ellvironmellt 22 no 3 (1988) 441middot49 Jan e Dignon and Sultan J-Iameed Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides from 1860 to 1980 jAPCA February 1989
3 Dignon op cil note 1 4 Helen M ApSimon and David Cowell The
Benefits of Reduced Damage to Buildings from Abalement of Sulfur Dioxide Emi ssions Ellergy Policy July 1996
5 Hameed and Dignon op eil note I 6 Mare Levy European Acid Rain The Power of
TotemiddotBoard Diplomacy in Peter M Haas el lt11 eds [llslilutiol1s (or the Earth (Cambridge MA The MIT Press 1993)
7 Environmental Protection Agencys 1996 Auclion of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Coal We eh 1 April 1996 JeH Bailey Electric Utilities Are Overcomplying With Clean Air Act Wall Sireet Journal 15 Nove mber 1995
8 Environmental Protection Agency EPA Report Shows Americans Breathing Cleaner Air While Economy Grows press release Washington DC 17 December 1996
9 EU Air Pollution Down in Early 1990s Reuler European Commwlity Reporl 22 July 1996
10 Per Elv ingson Declaration Promises Unkept Acid News December 1996
11 Authorities Reveal 3 Million Deaths Linked to IIIness from Urban Air Pollution and More than 70000 Industrial Polluters Targeted for
Nota8
Closure unde r New Crackdown both in International Envirollment Reporter 30 October 1996 China Adopts Effective Measures to Curb Pollution XillHla News Agellcy 14 October 1996
12 India to Shut Polluters Near Taj Wall Street journal 31 Dece mber 1996
13 Peter M Vitousek et al Human Alteration of the Global Nitrogen Cycle Causes and Consequences (draft) Ecolog ica I Issues in press
14 Robart Howarth ed Nitrogen Cycl ing in the North Atlantic Ocean and Its Watersheds Report of the International SCOPE Nitrogen Project Biogeochemislry October 1996 (special issue) I
15 DW Schindler and SE Bayley The Biosphere as an Increasing Sink for Atmospheric Carbon Es timates from Increas ing Nitrogen Deposition Global Biogeochemislry Cycles vol 7 (1993)
16 David Weldin and David T il man Influence of Nitrogen Loading and Species Composition on the Carbon Balance of Grasslands Science 6 December 1996
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DOWN SLIGHTLY (pages 62-63)
1 James l-iansen et al Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Air Temperature Analyses Globa l Land-Ocean Temperature Index as posted at lthttpwwwgissnasa govlDataGISTEMPgt viewed 14 January 1997 R Monastersky 1996 Year of Warmth and Weather Reve rsals Science News 18 January 1997
2 Hansen et al op eil note 1 3 Juumlmes Hansen et al 1996 Tempera ture
Observa ti ons as posted at lt http www giss nasa gov IResea rc hObserves u r ft e m p htmgt viewed 14 January 1997
4Ibid 5 Hansen et al op eil note 1 William K
Stevens Global Climate Stayed Warm in 1996 With Wet Cold Regional Surprises New Yorh Times 14 January 1997
6 David Parker and Phi I Jones Global Climate 1996-Not As Warm as 1995 U K Me teo rological Office J-Iadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and University of East Anglia Climatic Research
Unit 15 ]anuary 1997 7 Keith R Briffa et al Unusual 1Wentiethshy
Century Warmth in a 1000-Year Temperature Record from Siberia Nature 13 July 1995 Fred Pearce Lure of the Rings New Scientist 14 December 1996
8 DG Vaughan and CSM Doake Recent Atmospheric Warming and Retreat of ce Shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula Nature 25 January 1996
9 Wallace S Broec ker C haotic Climate Scientific Amelcan November 1995 Jorge L Sarmiento and Corinne Le Quere Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Model of CenturyshyScale Global Warming Science 22 November 1996 Fred Pearce Wi ll a Sea Change Thrn Up the Heat New Scienlist 30 November 1996
10 Louis A Codispoti Is the Ocean Losing Nitrate Nature 31 August 1995
11 RT Watson et al ed s Climale Change 1995 Impa cts Adaptalions and Mitigation Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on C1imate Change (Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press 1996) Chris Bright Traeking the Ecology of Climate Change in Lester R Brown et al State o( the World 1997 (New York W W Norton amp Company 1997)
12 David W Schindler et al Consequences of Climate Warming and Lake Acidification for UV-B Penetration in North American Boreal Lakes Nature 22 February 1996 Frecl Pearce Canadian Lakes Suffer Tripie Blow New Scientist 24 February 1996
13 George M Woodwell and Fred T MacKenzie Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climatic System Will the Warming Feed the Warming (New York Oxford U niversi ty Press 1995)
14 ]T J-Ioughton et al eds Climate Change 1995 The Science o( Climale Change Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press 1996)
15 Ibid 16 AJ McMichael et al eds Climate Change alld
Human Health prepared by a Task Group on behalf of the World Health Organization (WHO) World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme (Geneva WJ-IO 1996)
17 BD Santer et al A Senreh for Human Influences on the Thermal Structu re of the
Atmosphere and NevilJe N ilt gt11 All Incriminating Fingerprint both ill NIIIII 4shyJuly 1996 Richard A Kerr SkY-lliflh l illltliJl~~ Drop New J-lints of Greenhou~t WUlng Science 5 July 1996 Figure 2 from Th IIlldlcy Centre for Climate Predietion anel H(~c ICh Modeling Climate Change 1860-2050 (Brlll kllcll U K The Meteorological Office 1IHuaIY 1995)
18 J Hansen et a l A Pinatubo elimat Modcling Investigation in G Fiocco D Fua 11111 G Visconti ed s Global Environmenta Callge (Berlin Springer-Verlag 1996)
19 J-Iansen et al op eil note 3
WORLD ECONOMY EXPANDS FA S T E R (pages 66-67)
1 Internationa l Monetary Fund (IMIf) World Economic Outlooh October 1996 (Washington DC 1996)
2Ibid 3Ibid 4Ibid 5Ibid 6Ibid 7Ibid 8 Andrew Pollack The Question Facing Japall
Can its Vibrant Engine Ever Be Restarted Nil
York Times 2 January 1997 9 IMF op eil note 1
IOIbid 11 Ibid 12 Ibid 13 Ibid 14 Vietnamese Economy At A Crossroad~
journal o( Commerce 21 June 1996 15 IMF op eil note 1 16Ibid 17 Ibid 18 Ibid 19 Ibid 20 Mexican Output Rises 74 Eclipsill)lt
Economic Forecasts New Yorh Times i November 1996
21 IMF op eil note 1 22 Ibid 23 Ibid 24 Ibid 25 Ibid 26 Ibid 27 Ibid
142
62
Global Temperature Down Slightly Seth Dunn
The temperature of the atmosphere at the Earths surface averaged 15 32 degrees Celsius in 1996 according to preliminary figshyures placing it among the five warrnest years since data collection began in 1866 I (See Figure l) Though this is a slight drop from the 1995 high of 1540 degrees Celsius global temperatures have increased nearly half a degree since 19502
The 1990s are already the warrnest decade on record-averaging 01 degrees Celsius above the 1980s-according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA which collects the land and ocean surface-temperashyture measurements 3
The warmth of the current decade is parshyticularly remarkable because it has occurred in conjunction with several short-term natural and humanmade cooling effects These include the centurys largest volcanic event the 199 1 eruption of Mount Pinatubo the solar energy cycle which has been at a minishymum during the 1990s and atmospheric depletion of ozone now at record levels
More recent cooling influences also affectshyed 1996 temperatures The presence of La Nifia an upwelling of unusually cool waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean had a role in the temperature drop Also partly responsishyble was the reversal of the North Atlantic Oscillation a 30-year trend of cooling in Greenland and warming in North America and Europe leading to record precipitation and extreme cold events in the two latter regions during 1996
According to data from the Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia 1996 conshytinued an underlying upward trend begun in the mid-1970s with so me regions warming quickly Summer temperatures in northern Siberia are warmer than they have been in a millennium forcing boreal forests northward Antarctica has warmed at more than twice the average global rate during the last 50 years causing five of the continents ice shelves to disintegrate 8
Rising atmospheric temperatures interact dynamically with ocean processes Geological re cords and computer models
reveal that the oceans heat-carrying conveyor belt shifts suddenly in response to temperashyture changes- leading to abrupt climate changes such as dramatic cooling in northern Europe-which may reduce the ocean s abilishyty to absorb carbon 9 Warming also causes oceans [0 lose nitrate slowing the growth of carbon-assimilating phytoplankton 10
Many aquatic marine and terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to small temshyperature increases freshwater fish coral reefs and boreal forests are particularly at ri sk Warming moreover be haves synergisshytically with ozone depletion and acidification to compound ecological stresses 2 And it can feed on itself in certain inst~nces the loss of boreal forest and warming of tundra could release large amounts of carbon dioxide as weil as methane another potent greenhouse gas I )
Feedbacks from the ocean and biosphere as the atmosphere warms are examples of clishymates tendency to behave unexpec tedly when rapidly forced to change 14 Such surshyprises which have occurred in the past but are difficult to predict could increase the rate of warming-which is al ready expected to be the fastest seen in 10000 years S This clishymate instability poses serious and widespread risks to human hea lth according to a 1996 report prepared for the World Health Organization the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization 6
Evidence of the human fingerprint in clishymate change continues to strengthen with improved understanding of sulfates and other influences on the atmosphere s temperature17
(See Figure 2) A team led by Goddards James Hansen has clarified the relationship between these influences and observed global temperature changes and suggests there could be areturn to the warming trend as the La Nifia e ffect fades 8 Hansen believes there is a high likelihood that another temperashyture record will be set before the end of the century9
GLOBAL AVEHAGE TEMPERATURE 1950-96
YEAR TEMPERATURE IclcgrEeS Celsius)
1950 1486
1955 1492
1960 1498
1965 1488 1966 1495 1967 1499 1968 1493 1969 1505 1970 1502 1971 1493 1972 1500 1973 15 11 1974 1492 1975 1492 1976 14middot82 1977 1511 1978 1505 1979 1509 1980 15 18 1981 1529 1982 15 08 1983 1524 1984 15 11 1985 1509 1986 1516 1987 1527 1988 1528 1989 1522 1990 1539 1991 1536 1992 1511 1993 1514 1994 1523 1995 1540 1996 (preI) 1532 SoUltCE Goddard Inst itut( (or Sp~umiddotc Sludics New York 14 jnnuary 1997
_J Degrees Celsius
1550 -r----------shy________--
15 30 I _I I
Souree Goddard Institute for Spaee Studies
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Figure 1 Average Temperature at the Ealths Surface 1950-96
2000
Degrees Celsius 30 --shy- ---shy___________--
Souree Hadley Center
251shy1-shy----shy-shy- -shy- ------l Projeeted Wit lOut bull
2 0 I Sulfate Correetiol1 15r-------~Lmiddot~ ~ 10 shy
amp~_
05 I -1 ~o leeeq_
o Ittbulltlijr~iJ~middot -~ j ~~ c c v
-05 +I-----r------------ 1860 1900 1940 1980 2020
Figule 2 Models of Global Warming Compared With Observations 1863 - 2047
2060
VitAl Signs 1UI 111
Notes
20 International Energy Agency World Energy Outook 1996 Edition (Paris 1996)
21 Nations Urged To Pass Laws On Emissions New Yorh Times 19 July 1996
SULFUR AND NITROGEN EMISSIONS UNCHANGED (pages 60-61)
1 Dr Jane Dignon Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA unpublished data series letter to author 22 January 1997 Sultan Hameed and Jane Dignon Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides in Fossil Fuel Combustion 1970- 86 journal o( the Air and Waste Management AssociatioJ1 February 1992
2 For a discussion of the methodology used to creshyate this data set see Sultan Hameed and Jane Dignon Changes in the Geographical Distributions of Global Emissions of NO and SO x from Fossil Fuel Combustion between 1966 and 1980 Almospheric Ellvironmellt 22 no 3 (1988) 441middot49 Jan e Dignon and Sultan J-Iameed Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides from 1860 to 1980 jAPCA February 1989
3 Dignon op cil note 1 4 Helen M ApSimon and David Cowell The
Benefits of Reduced Damage to Buildings from Abalement of Sulfur Dioxide Emi ssions Ellergy Policy July 1996
5 Hameed and Dignon op eil note I 6 Mare Levy European Acid Rain The Power of
TotemiddotBoard Diplomacy in Peter M Haas el lt11 eds [llslilutiol1s (or the Earth (Cambridge MA The MIT Press 1993)
7 Environmental Protection Agencys 1996 Auclion of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Coal We eh 1 April 1996 JeH Bailey Electric Utilities Are Overcomplying With Clean Air Act Wall Sireet Journal 15 Nove mber 1995
8 Environmental Protection Agency EPA Report Shows Americans Breathing Cleaner Air While Economy Grows press release Washington DC 17 December 1996
9 EU Air Pollution Down in Early 1990s Reuler European Commwlity Reporl 22 July 1996
10 Per Elv ingson Declaration Promises Unkept Acid News December 1996
11 Authorities Reveal 3 Million Deaths Linked to IIIness from Urban Air Pollution and More than 70000 Industrial Polluters Targeted for
Nota8
Closure unde r New Crackdown both in International Envirollment Reporter 30 October 1996 China Adopts Effective Measures to Curb Pollution XillHla News Agellcy 14 October 1996
12 India to Shut Polluters Near Taj Wall Street journal 31 Dece mber 1996
13 Peter M Vitousek et al Human Alteration of the Global Nitrogen Cycle Causes and Consequences (draft) Ecolog ica I Issues in press
14 Robart Howarth ed Nitrogen Cycl ing in the North Atlantic Ocean and Its Watersheds Report of the International SCOPE Nitrogen Project Biogeochemislry October 1996 (special issue) I
15 DW Schindler and SE Bayley The Biosphere as an Increasing Sink for Atmospheric Carbon Es timates from Increas ing Nitrogen Deposition Global Biogeochemislry Cycles vol 7 (1993)
16 David Weldin and David T il man Influence of Nitrogen Loading and Species Composition on the Carbon Balance of Grasslands Science 6 December 1996
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DOWN SLIGHTLY (pages 62-63)
1 James l-iansen et al Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Air Temperature Analyses Globa l Land-Ocean Temperature Index as posted at lthttpwwwgissnasa govlDataGISTEMPgt viewed 14 January 1997 R Monastersky 1996 Year of Warmth and Weather Reve rsals Science News 18 January 1997
2 Hansen et al op eil note 1 3 Juumlmes Hansen et al 1996 Tempera ture
Observa ti ons as posted at lt http www giss nasa gov IResea rc hObserves u r ft e m p htmgt viewed 14 January 1997
4Ibid 5 Hansen et al op eil note 1 William K
Stevens Global Climate Stayed Warm in 1996 With Wet Cold Regional Surprises New Yorh Times 14 January 1997
6 David Parker and Phi I Jones Global Climate 1996-Not As Warm as 1995 U K Me teo rological Office J-Iadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and University of East Anglia Climatic Research
Unit 15 ]anuary 1997 7 Keith R Briffa et al Unusual 1Wentiethshy
Century Warmth in a 1000-Year Temperature Record from Siberia Nature 13 July 1995 Fred Pearce Lure of the Rings New Scientist 14 December 1996
8 DG Vaughan and CSM Doake Recent Atmospheric Warming and Retreat of ce Shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula Nature 25 January 1996
9 Wallace S Broec ker C haotic Climate Scientific Amelcan November 1995 Jorge L Sarmiento and Corinne Le Quere Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Model of CenturyshyScale Global Warming Science 22 November 1996 Fred Pearce Wi ll a Sea Change Thrn Up the Heat New Scienlist 30 November 1996
10 Louis A Codispoti Is the Ocean Losing Nitrate Nature 31 August 1995
11 RT Watson et al ed s Climale Change 1995 Impa cts Adaptalions and Mitigation Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on C1imate Change (Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press 1996) Chris Bright Traeking the Ecology of Climate Change in Lester R Brown et al State o( the World 1997 (New York W W Norton amp Company 1997)
12 David W Schindler et al Consequences of Climate Warming and Lake Acidification for UV-B Penetration in North American Boreal Lakes Nature 22 February 1996 Frecl Pearce Canadian Lakes Suffer Tripie Blow New Scientist 24 February 1996
13 George M Woodwell and Fred T MacKenzie Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climatic System Will the Warming Feed the Warming (New York Oxford U niversi ty Press 1995)
14 ]T J-Ioughton et al eds Climate Change 1995 The Science o( Climale Change Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press 1996)
15 Ibid 16 AJ McMichael et al eds Climate Change alld
Human Health prepared by a Task Group on behalf of the World Health Organization (WHO) World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme (Geneva WJ-IO 1996)
17 BD Santer et al A Senreh for Human Influences on the Thermal Structu re of the
Atmosphere and NevilJe N ilt gt11 All Incriminating Fingerprint both ill NIIIII 4shyJuly 1996 Richard A Kerr SkY-lliflh l illltliJl~~ Drop New J-lints of Greenhou~t WUlng Science 5 July 1996 Figure 2 from Th IIlldlcy Centre for Climate Predietion anel H(~c ICh Modeling Climate Change 1860-2050 (Brlll kllcll U K The Meteorological Office 1IHuaIY 1995)
18 J Hansen et a l A Pinatubo elimat Modcling Investigation in G Fiocco D Fua 11111 G Visconti ed s Global Environmenta Callge (Berlin Springer-Verlag 1996)
19 J-Iansen et al op eil note 3
WORLD ECONOMY EXPANDS FA S T E R (pages 66-67)
1 Internationa l Monetary Fund (IMIf) World Economic Outlooh October 1996 (Washington DC 1996)
2Ibid 3Ibid 4Ibid 5Ibid 6Ibid 7Ibid 8 Andrew Pollack The Question Facing Japall
Can its Vibrant Engine Ever Be Restarted Nil
York Times 2 January 1997 9 IMF op eil note 1
IOIbid 11 Ibid 12 Ibid 13 Ibid 14 Vietnamese Economy At A Crossroad~
journal o( Commerce 21 June 1996 15 IMF op eil note 1 16Ibid 17 Ibid 18 Ibid 19 Ibid 20 Mexican Output Rises 74 Eclipsill)lt
Economic Forecasts New Yorh Times i November 1996
21 IMF op eil note 1 22 Ibid 23 Ibid 24 Ibid 25 Ibid 26 Ibid 27 Ibid
142
Notes
20 International Energy Agency World Energy Outook 1996 Edition (Paris 1996)
21 Nations Urged To Pass Laws On Emissions New Yorh Times 19 July 1996
SULFUR AND NITROGEN EMISSIONS UNCHANGED (pages 60-61)
1 Dr Jane Dignon Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA unpublished data series letter to author 22 January 1997 Sultan Hameed and Jane Dignon Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides in Fossil Fuel Combustion 1970- 86 journal o( the Air and Waste Management AssociatioJ1 February 1992
2 For a discussion of the methodology used to creshyate this data set see Sultan Hameed and Jane Dignon Changes in the Geographical Distributions of Global Emissions of NO and SO x from Fossil Fuel Combustion between 1966 and 1980 Almospheric Ellvironmellt 22 no 3 (1988) 441middot49 Jan e Dignon and Sultan J-Iameed Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides from 1860 to 1980 jAPCA February 1989
3 Dignon op cil note 1 4 Helen M ApSimon and David Cowell The
Benefits of Reduced Damage to Buildings from Abalement of Sulfur Dioxide Emi ssions Ellergy Policy July 1996
5 Hameed and Dignon op eil note I 6 Mare Levy European Acid Rain The Power of
TotemiddotBoard Diplomacy in Peter M Haas el lt11 eds [llslilutiol1s (or the Earth (Cambridge MA The MIT Press 1993)
7 Environmental Protection Agencys 1996 Auclion of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Coal We eh 1 April 1996 JeH Bailey Electric Utilities Are Overcomplying With Clean Air Act Wall Sireet Journal 15 Nove mber 1995
8 Environmental Protection Agency EPA Report Shows Americans Breathing Cleaner Air While Economy Grows press release Washington DC 17 December 1996
9 EU Air Pollution Down in Early 1990s Reuler European Commwlity Reporl 22 July 1996
10 Per Elv ingson Declaration Promises Unkept Acid News December 1996
11 Authorities Reveal 3 Million Deaths Linked to IIIness from Urban Air Pollution and More than 70000 Industrial Polluters Targeted for
Nota8
Closure unde r New Crackdown both in International Envirollment Reporter 30 October 1996 China Adopts Effective Measures to Curb Pollution XillHla News Agellcy 14 October 1996
12 India to Shut Polluters Near Taj Wall Street journal 31 Dece mber 1996
13 Peter M Vitousek et al Human Alteration of the Global Nitrogen Cycle Causes and Consequences (draft) Ecolog ica I Issues in press
14 Robart Howarth ed Nitrogen Cycl ing in the North Atlantic Ocean and Its Watersheds Report of the International SCOPE Nitrogen Project Biogeochemislry October 1996 (special issue) I
15 DW Schindler and SE Bayley The Biosphere as an Increasing Sink for Atmospheric Carbon Es timates from Increas ing Nitrogen Deposition Global Biogeochemislry Cycles vol 7 (1993)
16 David Weldin and David T il man Influence of Nitrogen Loading and Species Composition on the Carbon Balance of Grasslands Science 6 December 1996
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DOWN SLIGHTLY (pages 62-63)
1 James l-iansen et al Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Air Temperature Analyses Globa l Land-Ocean Temperature Index as posted at lthttpwwwgissnasa govlDataGISTEMPgt viewed 14 January 1997 R Monastersky 1996 Year of Warmth and Weather Reve rsals Science News 18 January 1997
2 Hansen et al op eil note 1 3 Juumlmes Hansen et al 1996 Tempera ture
Observa ti ons as posted at lt http www giss nasa gov IResea rc hObserves u r ft e m p htmgt viewed 14 January 1997
4Ibid 5 Hansen et al op eil note 1 William K
Stevens Global Climate Stayed Warm in 1996 With Wet Cold Regional Surprises New Yorh Times 14 January 1997
6 David Parker and Phi I Jones Global Climate 1996-Not As Warm as 1995 U K Me teo rological Office J-Iadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and University of East Anglia Climatic Research
Unit 15 ]anuary 1997 7 Keith R Briffa et al Unusual 1Wentiethshy
Century Warmth in a 1000-Year Temperature Record from Siberia Nature 13 July 1995 Fred Pearce Lure of the Rings New Scientist 14 December 1996
8 DG Vaughan and CSM Doake Recent Atmospheric Warming and Retreat of ce Shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula Nature 25 January 1996
9 Wallace S Broec ker C haotic Climate Scientific Amelcan November 1995 Jorge L Sarmiento and Corinne Le Quere Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Model of CenturyshyScale Global Warming Science 22 November 1996 Fred Pearce Wi ll a Sea Change Thrn Up the Heat New Scienlist 30 November 1996
10 Louis A Codispoti Is the Ocean Losing Nitrate Nature 31 August 1995
11 RT Watson et al ed s Climale Change 1995 Impa cts Adaptalions and Mitigation Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on C1imate Change (Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press 1996) Chris Bright Traeking the Ecology of Climate Change in Lester R Brown et al State o( the World 1997 (New York W W Norton amp Company 1997)
12 David W Schindler et al Consequences of Climate Warming and Lake Acidification for UV-B Penetration in North American Boreal Lakes Nature 22 February 1996 Frecl Pearce Canadian Lakes Suffer Tripie Blow New Scientist 24 February 1996
13 George M Woodwell and Fred T MacKenzie Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climatic System Will the Warming Feed the Warming (New York Oxford U niversi ty Press 1995)
14 ]T J-Ioughton et al eds Climate Change 1995 The Science o( Climale Change Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge UK Cambridge University Press 1996)
15 Ibid 16 AJ McMichael et al eds Climate Change alld
Human Health prepared by a Task Group on behalf of the World Health Organization (WHO) World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme (Geneva WJ-IO 1996)
17 BD Santer et al A Senreh for Human Influences on the Thermal Structu re of the
Atmosphere and NevilJe N ilt gt11 All Incriminating Fingerprint both ill NIIIII 4shyJuly 1996 Richard A Kerr SkY-lliflh l illltliJl~~ Drop New J-lints of Greenhou~t WUlng Science 5 July 1996 Figure 2 from Th IIlldlcy Centre for Climate Predietion anel H(~c ICh Modeling Climate Change 1860-2050 (Brlll kllcll U K The Meteorological Office 1IHuaIY 1995)
18 J Hansen et a l A Pinatubo elimat Modcling Investigation in G Fiocco D Fua 11111 G Visconti ed s Global Environmenta Callge (Berlin Springer-Verlag 1996)
19 J-Iansen et al op eil note 3
WORLD ECONOMY EXPANDS FA S T E R (pages 66-67)
1 Internationa l Monetary Fund (IMIf) World Economic Outlooh October 1996 (Washington DC 1996)
2Ibid 3Ibid 4Ibid 5Ibid 6Ibid 7Ibid 8 Andrew Pollack The Question Facing Japall
Can its Vibrant Engine Ever Be Restarted Nil
York Times 2 January 1997 9 IMF op eil note 1
IOIbid 11 Ibid 12 Ibid 13 Ibid 14 Vietnamese Economy At A Crossroad~
journal o( Commerce 21 June 1996 15 IMF op eil note 1 16Ibid 17 Ibid 18 Ibid 19 Ibid 20 Mexican Output Rises 74 Eclipsill)lt
Economic Forecasts New Yorh Times i November 1996
21 IMF op eil note 1 22 Ibid 23 Ibid 24 Ibid 25 Ibid 26 Ibid 27 Ibid
142