Climate Change Division

Science Related Activities

R.R. Rashmi, AS (9910195285)

R.S. Prasad, JS (8130676464)

J.R. Bhatt, Adviser (9810277008)

Ajay Raghava, Deputy Director (9810266823)

Lokesh Chandra Dube, Programme Officer (9811722675)

CO2 in atmosphere: 401 ppm in 2014 from 298 ppm in 1901

Global mean surface temp. increased by 0.89oC between 1901 and 2012.

Global mean sea level increased by 0.19 m between 1901 and 2010.

Key Findings 5th Assessment Report (2014)

Most of the growth from middle income countries like China and India

Per capita emissions still low in most developing countries; lot more growth in

emissions expected under business as usual

To limit increase in temperature to 2o C relative to preindustrial level, GHG

emissions at global level to be reduced by 40-70% compared with 2010 by 2050

and near zero by 2100

Global Scenario

Projected impacts on India

Increase in extreme rainfall events, mean and extreme precipitation during monsoon

Changes in more than 1/3rd of forest area by 2100, mostly from one forest type to another

Reduction in monsoon sorghum yield by 2 to 14% by 2020, with worsening yields by 2050 and 2080

Reduction in wheat yields in Indo-Gangetic Plains

Estimated countrywide agricultural loss (more than US$7 billion) in 2030; severely affect income of 10% population

Extreme events are expected to be more catastrophic for east coast.

Country CO2 Emissions/year

(Billion Tons)

Emission of CO2 per Capita

(Tons/Person)

China 10.59 7.6

United States 5.33 16.5

EU-28 3.42 6.7

India 2.34 1.8

Russia 1.77 12.4

Japan 1.28 10.1

Germany 0.770 9.3

Source: Trends in Global CO2 Emissions 2015 Report. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

Global Emissions in 2014

Historical Emissions & Carbon Space

Historical emissions since 1750s resulted in global temp. rise by 0.85° C

Cumulative historical emissions in 2009 (1850 as base year):

USA 29%

Other Developed countries 45%

China 10%

Other Emerging Economies 9%

India 3%

Limiting future climate change require substantial and sustained reductions

in emissions

National Communications

INC (2004): GHG Inventory of 1994 (1.23 billion tonne

CO2e, with LULUCF)

SNC (2012): GHG Inventory of 2000 (1.30 billion tonne

CO2e, with LULUCF), 5.7% increase from 1994.

Highlights of BUR-1

BUR-I (2015): GHG Inventory of 2010 (1.88 billion tonne CO2e, with LULUCF), 45% increase from 2000.

Forest sector net sink; neutralized 12% emissions

Per capita emission 1.56 mt CO2e

12% reduction in emission intensity between 2005 and 2010.

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India’s GHG Emissions Sector-Wise

1994

Energy 71%

IPPU 8%

Agriculture 18%

Waste 3%

2010

Climate Change Action Programme

Central Sector Scheme - Approved Cost Rs. 290 cr in 2014

Scheme Objectives:

Build and support capacity at Central & State levels to assess climate change, formulate adequate response measures and implement relevant activities

Create and strengthen scientific & analytical capacity for assessment of climate change in the country

Establish appropriate institutional framework for scientific & policy initiatives

Implementation of climate related actions in the context of sustainable development

Scheme components:

Long Term Ecological Observatories (LTEO)

National Carbonaceous Aerosol Programme (NCAP)

Coordinated Studies on Climate Change for North East region (CSCCNER)

National Institute for Climate Change Studies and Action (NICCSA)

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Long Term Ecological Observatories (LTEO) Programme

Objective:- Create a network of field sites for undertaking observations to study effects of climate change Total outlay:- Rs. 40 crore for five year

Eight sites

Western Himalaya, Eastern Himalaya, North-Western Arid Zone, Central Indian Forests, Western Ghats, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Jammu & Kashmir, and Sundarbans

Different agencies to conduct studies on identified themes across these sites

Outcome/ Output:

Report on various biological indicators in the selected ecosystems.

National Carbonaceous Aerosols Programme

Objectives

Understand role of carbonaceous aerosols in regional climate change over India using

source measurement, modelling and impact analysis

Developing national carbonaceous aerosols emission inventory, emission measurement

in four sectors (residential, diesel transport, agriculture field burning & brick production)

Modelling for source apportionment and regional transport

Understanding influence on clouds & rainfall

Consortium of 17 institutes implementing at cost of Rs 55.57 crore

Outputs/Outcomes:-

• Emissions inventory, data portal

• Source apportionment

• Emission factors

• Long term simulations for rainfall

• Impact on cloud properties

• Deposition in subcontinent and Himalayas

Coordinated Studies on Climate Change in North Eastern Region

Objectives:-

Undertake studies on impacts of Climate Change in North Eastern India;

Create a knowledge base for monitoring CC in NER owing to its special geographical and ecological context

Bridge existing gap in knowledge on CC impact, adaptation and mitigation

Development of mitigation & adaptation options for the region

Scope of Operation:-

Focus Areas:

Forests

Biodiversity

Water

Agriculture

Human Settlements

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Outputs/Outcomes:-

Report will include

• impacts of climate change in North Eastern States on forests, biodiversity,

water, agriculture & human settlements, and

• mitigation & adaptation options for the region

National Institute on Climate Change Studies & Actions

Cabinet approval for NICSSA

Structure and functions of the Institute to be decided by

Committee of Secretaries – Note submitted

Objective- Carry out scientific, socio-economic, technical and

analytical studies and coordinate as a national apex institution

with all institutions on research and other scientific activities

(including preparation of inventories, NATCOM, BUR etc.)

Support capacity building and training

Apex institution to support and inform the Government & public in

the area of climate change

‘PARAMPARA’ released by Prime Minister at COP21 in Paris

First of its kind catalogue with 194 examples of traditional

climate friendly practices of India along with another 52

write-ups, arranged sector wise in 8 sections.

Climate friendly lifestyle brochure released at COP21 in Paris

• Habitat and Culture • Food and Agriculture • Transportation • Energy and Water • Building and

Construction • Waste Management • Health and Yoga • Nature Conservation

Climate Change Outreach and Awareness

Science Express Climate Action Special Train Hand-holding support to Centre for Environment Education,

Ahmedabad for ensuring flawless script of the exhibits of 205 panels of the 8 coaches, both in English and Hindi.

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Activities planned Preparation of Third National Communication

Preparation of Second and Third Biennial Update Reports

Preparation of document ‘India: emission trends’

Launch of LTEO programme

Launch of CCAP programme

Increasing Indian participation in IPCC

Issues likely to be raised in the Parliament Glacier melting

Changing monsoon

Impacts of Climate Change

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THANK YOU

Scope of IPCC

IPCC prepares

Assessment reports

Methodology reports

Special report Technical papers Supporting material

First IPCC Assessment Report (1990) : decisive role in leading to creation of the UNFCCC

Second Assessment Report (1995): provided important material to adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997

Third Assessment Report (2001)

Fourth Assessment Report (2007): attention to the integration of climate change sustainable development, mitigation and adaptation

Fifth Assessment report (2014)

Observed impacts of climate change in India (indicators of Climate Change)

Between 34% and 39% of India’s forests are expected to change in character by 2085 as a consequence of climate change (Chaturvedi et al. 2011).

There is increasing evidence that declining rainfall trend in southern Western Ghats (Krishnan et al. 2013) is likely to impact the tropical evergreen forests through loss of tree diversity.

A major increase in the alien invasive plant, Lantana camara, in forests of southern India beginning around 2003, has been shown to be related to a combination of a prolonged drought and intense fire during this period (Ramaswamy and Sukumar 2013).

In Sikkim, many endemic plant species have migrated to higher elevation in two alpine valleys between the mid-19th century and the present (Telwala et al. 2013). Although biodiversity has not yet suffered, further upward migration could cause contraction of the distributional range of these plants and eventual extinction of some.

Observed Impacts of Climate Change in India

Due to an increase in the minimum temperature of upstream waters of Ganges river by 1.5 °C over a 30-year period, the Indian Major Carps suffered breeding decline (Vass et al. 2009).

The El Nino of 1997 increased sea surface temperatures by several degrees in the Indian Ocean, resulting in massive die off or bleaching of coral reefs (Arthur 2000). The more southerly species-rich reefs suffered greater declines than those further north as in the Gulf of Kutch that were better adapted to saline and higher temperature waters.

With increased frequency of EL Nino and drought conditions, there will be increase in the frequency and intensity of wildlife-human conflicts. Elephants have dispersed from natural habitats to human-production landscapes during severe droughts. In 1982-83 this happened from Tamil Nadu to Andhra Pradesh (where elephants had not been present for several hundred years), and in 1986-87 from Jharkhand in southern West Bengal. These conflicts are still perpetuating (Sukumar 1996 and Sukumar 2016).

Coordinated Studies on Climate Change for North East region (CSCCNE)

Climate change projections using the latest climate change models, for different sectors

State Action Plan and Adaptation Plan to be based on improved predictions

Develop Incremental (short term) and Transformational (long term resilience) Adaptation strategies

Develop CC impact and “Inherent Vulnerability Profiles” at District and Block levels

Evaluate the Current Developmental programs in light of improved understanding of climate regimes

Develop a NE Climate Change Research Centre

Socio-Economic Implications 22

National Carbonaceous Aerosols Programme (NCAP) (Black Carbon Research Initiative)

Specific objectives of the project, to be taken up in the first phase (2014-2019), are listed below:

Estimating emission magnitude and uncertainty of carbonaceous aerosols and co-emitted species from major source-sectors.

Deducing source influence on regional atmospheric abundance of carbonaceous aerosols with seasonal and spatial resolution.

Estimating the regional radiative impact of carbonaceous aerosols on sub-continental scales with seasonal and spatial

resolution and source/sector influence.

Understanding atmospheric processes and emission sectors influencing deposition of carbonaceous aerosols on target

ecosystems like the Himalaya.

Understanding carbonaceous aerosol alteration of clouds and rainfall.

S. No. Name of Institute

1 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay

2 Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur

3 Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi

4 Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Bhopal

5 Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Mohali

6 Bose Institute, Kolkata

7 University of Kashmir, Srinagar

8 Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra

9 Indian Institute of Hyderabad

10 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune

11 CSIR-North East Institute of Science & Technology

12 Indian Institute of Technology, Madras

13 National Physical Laboratory (NPL)

14 CSIR-Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore

15 Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur

637139. 759326. 862809.

379837. 461178. 531398.

1214248. 1523766.

1757352.

4057617.

5658642.

7465862.

334191. 554333.

845119.

1994 2000 2005

Brazil South Africa IndiaChina Indonesia

Comparison with other Developing countries Emissions, Gg

4126525.6866 4156404.2456 4183082.7489

5198540.6489 5121651.8856 5178201.0348

6499923.3732

7075609.4145 7228293.1559

2291944.0841 2053320.981 2135398.1611

-

20,00,000

40,00,000

60,00,000

80,00,000

1994 2000 2005

EU15 EU28 USA Russian Federation

Developed countries emissions (Gg)

Comparison with reported GHG Emissions of other countries

-

20,00,000

40,00,000

60,00,000

80,00,000

1994 2000 2005

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

in G

g C

O2

e

Year

Brazil

South Africa

India

China

Indonesia

Per capita GHG emissions

Rank Country GHG emissions (t CO2e per capita), 2000

1 Qatar 67.9

2 UAE 36.1

3 Kuwait 31.6

4 Australia 25.6

5 Bahrain 24.8

6 USA 24.5

7 Canada 22.1

22 Russia 13.2

46 South Africa 9.5

83 Brazil 5.0

99 China 3.9

140 India 1.9

WORLD 5.6

Per capita GHG emissions (tonnes CO2e)

1994 2000 2010

US 21.43 22.54 18.92

Brazil 9.53 11.96 7.10

Russia 14.83 11.24 11.53

China 2.91 4.32 9.35

India 1.31 1.25 1.56

South Africa 8.91 9.48 10.07