scientific ecosystems and research reproducibility marcus munafò

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SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

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Page 1: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITYMarcus Munafò

Page 2: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

The Reproducibility Crisis?

Page 3: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

…or Opportunity?

Open Science Collaboration (2015). Science, 349.

Page 4: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

Questionable Practices

Simmons et al. (2011). Psychol Sci, 22, 1359-1366.

Page 5: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

Questionable Practices

Carp (2012). Neuroimage, 63, 289-300.

“…nearly as many unique analysis pipelines as there were studies in the sample…”

Page 6: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

Questionable Practices

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/neuroskeptic/2013/10/16/the-f-problem

Page 7: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

Incentive Structures

Bones (2012). Perspect Psychol Sci, 7, 307.

Page 8: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

Incentive Structures

Fanelli & Ioannidis (2013). PNAS, 5, e10271.

Page 9: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

Incentive Structures

Button et al. (2013). Nat Rev Neurosci, 14, 365-376.

Page 10: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

But Science is Self-Correcting!

Ioannidis (2012). Perspect Psychol Sci, 7, 645-654.

Page 11: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

But Science is Self-Correcting!

Panagiotou & Ioannidis (2012). J Clin Epidemiol, 65, 740-747.

Page 12: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

But Science is Self-Correcting!

Greenberg (2009). Br Med J, 339, b2680.

Investigated citation network of papers addressing the belief that B amyloid, a protein accumulated in the brain in Alzheimer’s disease, is produced by and injures skeletal muscle of patients with inclusion body myositis.

Page 13: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

But Science is Self-Correcting!

Bastiaansen et al. (2015). Biol Psychiatry.

Abstracts often “spin” results to give impression that results are positive when they are not.

Citation inflation exists for both “positive” studies and “claim” studies in this literature.

True both within this literature (A, B) and in the wider (Web of Science) literature (C, D).

Page 14: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

But Science is Self-Correcting!

Kaplan & Irvin (2015). PLoS One, 10, e0132382.

In 2000 the National Heart Lung, and Blood Institute required the registration of primary outcome on ClinicalTrials.gov for all their grant-funded activity

Page 15: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

Scientific Ecosystems

Higginson & Munafò (in preparation).

Journals can require higher power (m) and/or more stringent P-value (α).

Evaluations can give more weight to confirmatory studies and number of studies.

% correct

red = highblue = low

Page 16: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

Crisis or Opportunity?

Page 17: SCIENTIFIC ECOSYSTEMS AND RESEARCH REPRODUCIBILITY Marcus Munafò

Acknowledgements

[email protected]

@MarcusMunafo

@BristolTARGhttp://www.bristol.ac.uk/expsych/research/brain/targ/

Tobacco and Alcohol Research Group:

Angela Attwood PostdocMiriam Cohen PhD StudentMichael Dalili PhD StudentKayleigh EaseyPhD StudentMeg Fluharty PhD StudentTherese Freuler Research AssistantSuzi Gage PostdocHarry Gove Research AssistantMeryem Grabski PhD StudentSarah Griffiths PhD StudentEleanor Kennedy PhD StudentJasmine Khouja Research AssistantLindsey Lacey Research AssistantGlenda Lassi PostdocRebecca Lawn PhD StudentJim Lumsden PhD StudentOlivia Maynard PostdocDiana Pratt AdministratorAndy Skinner PostdocAmy Taylor PostdocMichelle Taylor PhD StudentLea Trela-Larsen PhD StudentDavid Troy PhD StudentJennifer Ware Postdoc