scotland's changing fiscal framework through the prism of understanding society. david bell...
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Scotland's Changing Fiscal Framework through the Prism of Understanding Society
.
David BellUniversity of Stirling
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The Scottish Electoral Map in 2010 and 2015
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The Changing Settlement: Timeline
843 - Kenneth MacAlpin – first king of Scotland
1707 – Union of the Parliaments
1998 – Scottish Parliament established
2012 – Scotland Act 2012
2015 – Scotland Act 2015?
? – Independence (again) or full fiscal autonomy (FFA) within the UK?
Scottish Rate of Income Tax (SRIT)Land and Buildings Transaction TaxLandfill Tax
(Nearly) all of income taxShare of VATAir Passenger DutyWelfare Powers
Referendum (Sep 2014)The “Vow”The Smith Commission (Nov 2014)Draft legislation (Jan 2015)
Power to vary basic rate of incomeTax by (up to) 3p. Never used.
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Outline
• How is Scotland the same as the rest of the UK?
• How is it different?
• The present arrangements - funding, policy environment
• The UK’s changing fiscal environment
• Conclusions
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How is Scotland the same?
wales
northern
east
midl
north ea
st
yorks
hire
south w
est
scotla
nd
north w
es
west m
idl
east
of engla
nd
south ea
st
london£0
£500
£1,000
£1,500
£2,000
£2,500
£3,000M
onth
ly P
ay
Source: Understanding Society Wave d
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Potted view of Scottish economic performance before and after introduction of Scottish Parliament in 1998
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The Social Environment
• Identity
rUK Scotland05
101520253035404550
Proportion of US Respondents Describing Themselves as "British" by Area of Residence
Prop
ortio
n of
Adu
lt Re
spon
dent
s
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
05
101520253035404550
Percent of LFS Respondents Describing Themselves as “British” by Area of Residence
Living in Scotland
Living in rUK
Perc
ent o
f Res
pond
ents
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Slightly more authoritarian?
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20123.4
3.45
3.5
3.55
3.6
3.65
3.7
3.75
3.8
3.85
Libertarian-Authoritarian Scale
Scotland Rest of Great Britain
Libe
rtar
ian
<-->
Aut
hori
tari
an
Source: British Social Attitudes Survey
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More left wing?
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
Left-Right Scale
Scotland Rest of Great Britain
Left
<--
> Ri
ght
Source: British Social Attitudes Survey
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More sympathetic to welfare?
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132.65
2.7
2.75
2.8
2.85
2.9
2.95
3
3.05
3.1
3.15
Welfarism
Scotland Rest of Great Britain
Uns
ympa
theti
c <-
-> S
ympa
theti
c
Source: British Social Attitudes Survey
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Inequality of income?
Scotland London rUK0.335
0.34
0.345
0.35
0.355
0.36
0.365
0.37
Household Net Incomes
Wave bWave cWave d
Gini
Coe
fficie
nt
Scotland London rUK0.36
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.4
0.41
0.42
Gross Pay From Employment
Wave bWave cWave d
Gini
Coe
fficie
nt
Source: Understanding Society
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Satisfaction with health, life
completely d
issatisfi
mostly d
issatisfied
somewhat diss
atisfied
neither s
atisfied or
somewhat satisfied
mostly s
atisfied
completely s
atisfied05
10152025303540
Satisfaction with health
rUKScotland
Perc
ent (
%)
completely d
issatisfi
mostly d
issatisfied
somewhat diss
atisfied
neither s
atisfied or
somewhat satisfied
mostly s
atisfied
completely s
atisfied05
10152025303540
Satisfaction with life overall
rUKScotland
Perc
ent (
%)
Source: Understanding Society
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How is it different? Proportion of adults born outside UK
northern
ireland
north east
scotla
ndwales
yorks
hire and th
e hum
north w
est
south w
est
west midlands
east of e
ngland
east midlands
south east
london0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Pr
opor
tion
of A
dult
s Bo
rn O
utsi
de U
K
Source: Understanding Society Waves a-d
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Scotland the White?
rUK Scotland0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
White BritishAsianOther
Prop
porti
on o
f Adu
lts
Source: Understanding Society
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Slightly older population
0.0
05
.01
.01
5.0
2kd
ensi
ty d
vag
e
20 40 60 80 100Age
Scotland rUK
Source: Understanding Society
Implications for fiscal sustainability?
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Satisfaction with health may be relative?
96 97 98 99Percentile
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ScotlandrUK
Mea
n an
nual
day
s in
hosp
ital
Source: Understanding Society
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Significant health inequalities
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Higher public spending per head
National Statistics
2009-10outturn
2010-11outturn
2011-12outturn
2012-13outturn
2013-14outturn
England 97 97 97 97 97
Scotland 113 113 115 117 115
Wales 109 110 112 111 111
Northern Ireland 121 121 124 124 123
UK identifiable expenditure
100 100 100100
100
Source: HMT: Public Expenditure Statistical Analysis (July 2015)
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How is Scotland’s Funding Determined?
• Welfare – demand driven – paid by UK Government
• DEL – base and increment – known as the “block grant” – determined by the “Barnett Formula”
• Scotland receives its population share of any grant increase agreed for “comparable” English departments such as health and education
1 1 0 01 1Sc rUK rUK rUK Sc ScE p E p g T g T
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Scotland: The Policy Environment
• Scottish Government: areas of responsibility (spending)– Health– Social care– Education– Local government– Justice– Transport
• Opportunities for policy analysis?• Distinctive Scottish policies
– Long-term care– University tuition fees– Prescription charges
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Policy environment – “The Commission on the Future Delivery of Public Services”• Priorities
– Concentrating the efforts of all services on delivering integrated services that deliver results
– Prioritising preventative measures to reduce demand and lessen inequalities
– Identifying and targeting the underlying causes of inter-generational deprivation and low aspiration”
– Implications for longitudinal studies?
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Public Bodies (Joint Working) (Scotland) Act
• Granted royal assent on April 1, 2014. It will put in place:
– Nationally agreed outcomes, which will apply across health and social care, and for which NHS Boards and Local Authorities will be held jointly accountable
– A requirement on NHS Boards and Local Authorities to integrate health and social care budgets
– A requirement on Partnerships to strengthen the role of clinicians and care professionals, along with the third and independent sectors, in the planning and delivery of services
– Exogenous(?) policy variation on (similar/same?) populations – opportunities for Understanding Society?
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The Changing Fiscal Environment
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Scotland’s increasing tax powers
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Full fiscal autonomy with different oil prices
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Scottish Rate of Income Tax (SRIT)
Income
Income TaxRate
£10k £42k £100k
20p
40p
50p
10p
Scottish Government
HM Government
= £4.7bn
Vertical tax competition within shared tax base?
Horizontal tax competition over mobile tax base?
15p
£52k
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Support for moving fiscal responsibility to Holyrood
State
pensio
nVAT
Corporati
on tax
Income ta
x
Unemploym
ent ben
efits
Disabilit
y ben
efits
Taxe
s on N
orth Se
a oil a
nd gas
Housing b
enefit
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Don't knowRemain at WestminsterPartially devolved to ScotlandFully devolved to Scotland
Source: Centre on Constitutional Change Survey
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Preferences for taxes and benefits among those who wish powers moved to Holyrood
State pensio
n
Disabilit
y benefits
Unemployment b
enefits
Housing benefit
Taxes o
n North
Sea oil a
nd gas
Income ta
x
Corpora
tion tax
VAT0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Higher rate than in the UK currentlyDon't knowSame rate as in the UK currentlyLower rate than in the UK currently
Source: Centre on Constitutional Change Survey
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Principles? Logic?
• Who bears what risks?
• Accountability?
• Who controls macroeconomic policy
• Efficiency
• How important is size asymmetry?
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Decentralisation ratios in OECD countries
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
10
20
30
40
50
60
4.75
9.92
49.52
26.52
22.81
13.23
29.81
1.09
26.67
3.10
16.63
3.59
12.58
7.12
41.92
36.62
39.76
Scotland pre 2012
Scotland Act 2012
Scotland 2015
Expenditure share %
Reve
nue
shar
e %
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The Block Grant Adjustment – How will it work?
Year 1
<£30bn?
A
CScottish
Income Tax Revenue
Reduced Block Grant:size of reduction
determined by growth in UK tax base
Year 2
A*
C£30bn
Shortfall if Scottish incometax not growing as fast as
UK income tax
The Indexed Deduction Method
B B*D*
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Determining the Scottish (Welsh?) future budget
0 0 1 0 01 1 1 1 1Sc Sc Sc rUK Sc rUK rUK Sc ScE g T g T p g T g T
Change in Scottish Government Budget
Growth in Scottishtax base
Scottish populationshare
UK tax revenuein period 0
Share of Scottish taxesin period 0 going to UKgovernment
Share of Scottishtax revenues retainedby Scottish Parliament
Scottish taxes in period 0
Growth in rUKtax base
Barnett Formula
Block Grant Adjustment
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The Budgetary Effect of Slower Scottish Tax Base Growth
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
-2.0%
-1.8%
-1.6%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
Scotland ActScotland Act Pop Adj SmithSmith Pop Adj
YearCh
ange
Rel
ative
to
Barn
ett O
utco
me
(as
perc
ent
of G
DP)
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Modelling the tax and welfare provisions – CCC Research
UnderstandingSociety
Scottish sample
MicrosimulationSoftware
Differences in tax rates
Differences in welfare benefits
Differences in growth rates
Differences in demography
Effects on block grant
Distributional effects
Effects on net household income
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1p increase in SRIT
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How stable is the income tax band distribution?
2012Non-
TPBasic rate
Upper rate
Additional rate
Total
2009
Non-TP 52.77 43.82 3.23 0.19 100
Basic rate 12.58 82.25 4.99 0.17 100
Upper rate 6.68 23.95 65.61 3.76 100
Total 24.94 66.5 8.16 0.4 100
2012
Non-TP
Basic rate
Upper rate
Additional rate Total
2009
Non-TP
54.04 43.23 2.5 0.23100
Basic rate
10.38 84.95 4.53 0.13100
Upper rate
4.96 29.91 61.7 3.43100
Total 22.29 70.03 7.33 0.35 100
rUK Scotland
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New powers over welfare coming to Scotland
• Benefits for carers, disabled people and those who are ill• Benefits covered by the Regulated Social Fund• Discretionary housing payments
• End of any consensus on UK-wide social insurance?
• Administrative nightmare
• How to adjust Scottish budget to cover welfare payments?
• Interaction between welfare powers and Scottish policy initiatives (eg free personal care)
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Welfare powers being transferred
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Attendance Allowance Share
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Disability Living Allowance
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Conclusions
• Profound effects on the (unwritten) UK constitution are in train
• Chaotic fiscal decentralisation
• Existing funding structures have no principled rationale – proposed alternatives have even less – fiscally unsustainable
• Leading to break-up of the UK in the (near/distant?) future?
• But – great opportunities for social science – particularly longitudinal studies such as Understanding Society