Scotland’s Identity

John CurticeStrathclyde University/NatCen

Ways of Asking

• Forced Choice (either directly or after offering multiple choice)

• Moreno• Different Identities Separately

Forced Choice National Identity

74 79 92 97 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Scottish British

Sources: 74-97 Scottish Election Study; 99-13 Scottish Social Attitudes

A (Slight) Age Difference

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

12

17

2118

20

2624 25

2220

23

31

2012 2013

% B

ritis

h

Trends in Moreno National Identity

97 99 3 7 11 12 130

102030405060708090

100

2332 31 27 29 23 25

3835 34

30 3330 29

27 22 2228 23

30 29

4 3 3 5 5 5 44 4 4 6 5 6 6

Scot not Brit More Scot Equal More Brit Brit not Scot

But No Evidence of More Recent Change

Feb May Sept Dec Feb May0

102030405060708090

100

24 23 24 23 22 24

30 27 28 26 25 24

33 33 33 34 33 34

4 5 5 7 6 67 9 8 8 9 9

Sc not Br More Sc than Br EqualMore Br than Sc Br not Sc

Source: Ipsos MORI

Looking at the Two Identities Separately

1 2 3 4 5 6 705

101520253035404550

6 4 3

913

20

44

11 10 9

18 1613

22ScottishBritish

Strength of Identity

% fe

elin

g th

at w

ay

Source: SSA 2012

Dependent Variables

• Referendum Vote Intention (after squeeze)• Independence (in/out Europe) vs. Devolution

(with/without tax) vs. No Parliament• SP take all decisions vs. All bar foreign vs. All

domestic bar tax & welfare vs. No decisions

Scottish Identity Far From Sufficient

Scottish British0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

36

7

29

7

38

5

39

4

201120122013Ref Vote

But Is (Almost) Necessary

Sc not Br More Sc Equal More Br Br not Sc0

10

20

30

40

50

6053

32

12 11 9

46

23

11 12

4

51

34

14

8 6

53

34

129

5

2011 2012 2013 Ref Vote

% s

uppo

rt in

depe

nden

ce

More Recent Confirmation

Sc not Br More Sc than Br

Equal More Br than Sc

Br not Sc0

102030405060708090

100

67

46

169 7

18

39

7181

87

YesNo

Source: Ipsos MORI May 14. Don’t Knows included in denominator

It’s Britishness That Matters More!

1 2 3 4 5 6 70

10

20

30

40

50

60

12 11 11

1824

18

30

53

43

33

2317

11 9

ScottishBritish

Strength of Identity

%su

ppor

t ind

epen

denc

e

Identity Not as Powerful as The Economy

Very Fav Favourable Neither Unfavourable Very Unfav0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

53

34

12 95

86

67

23

5 2

Identity Economy

% Y

es

Only (Really) Matters When Convinced The Idea is Practical

Perceived Impact of Independence on Economy

Scottish only

More Scottish

Equal More British/Brit

ish only

Stronger 88 67 42 29No Difference

33 31 12 12

Weaker 9 4 3 3

More Devolution Helps Satisfy The Duallists (But Also Has Cross-Appeal)

Scottish only

More Scottish

Equal More British

British only

Independence

52 32 17 19 8

Devo Max

29 34 35 20 26

EITHER 83 66 52 39 34

Summary

• Referendum would not be happening without the existence of a distinct sense of national identity.

• But a strong Scottish - or more importantly a weak British identity - is not a sufficient condition for supporting independence.

• People need to be convinced of practical efficacy of independence if they are to be persuaded to let go of their Britishness. (More devolution may be thought sufficient).

• Onset of referendum may have rekindled some people’s sense of being British.