scottish urban air quality steering group - modelling & monitoring workshop - joost wesseling

MODELS AND MONITORING NSL

SEPA | December 2014 1

Contents

●Air Quality models in the Netherlands ●Monitoring of the NSL ●Monitoring Tool ●Exceedances ●Uncertainties ●Air Quality presently in the NL


AIR QUALITY MODELS


Standard Calculation Models Air Quality (SRM) ● Dutch law provides 3 Standard Calculation Models Air Quality (SRM)

– SRM-1 for streets / street canyons in an urban environment – SRM-2 along highways and larger other roads – SRM-3 near industrial facilities

● These models are described in detail in several documents.

● Other models are allowed if they are comparable to the SRM’s or if

they can be applied to other situations than the SRM’s.

● Wind tunnel experiments are also allowed, provided a specific protocol is followed.

● The RIVM advises the minister of Infrastructure and the Environment on model approval.


Netherlands: traffic and livestock important ● For traffic the local authorities must provide

– The exact location and height of the main roads – Numbers of light, medium-heavy, heavy vehicles and busses – Average speed and appropriate emission class – Average congestion and appropriate emission class – Location and shape of sound barriers

● For livestock the local authorities must provide – numbers of animals – Type of housing – Exact location

● For traffic and livestock the emission factors are provided by the Dutch government.


Model system

Background (double counting)

+ Local streets SRM1

+ Highways SRM2

+ Industry / livestock SRM3


Large-scale backgrounds NO2

• RIVM prepares maps on a 1x1 km2 resolution.

• Recent years are calibrated using measurements.

• Predictions based on • Economy • Technology • NL / EU


Large-scale backgrounds PM10


Model system Simple empirical model, derived from wind tunnel, calibrated using field measurements



+ Highways SRM2



Model system Gaussian dispersion model, yearly average values only. Calibrated using field measurements.



+ Highways SRM2



Model system

Gaussian dispersion model, hourly and yearly average values.



+ Highways SRM2



NO2, data 2010 - 2013

Extensive model validation, mainly for NO2, some NOx, PM10


NL versus UK, 2010, NO2


MONITORING NSL

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Monitoring NSL ● All emissions, background calculations, local model results,

corrections etc are combined in the yearly Monitoring report of the NSL.

● The report is send to the Dutch parliament around December of each year.

● There is a lot of public interest.

● RIVM tries to provide the inputs and results in a transparant way.

● Some of the input is checked and commented.

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Monitoring NSL: data and responsibilities

Monitoring report (RIVM et al.)

Monitoring database

www.nsl-monitoring.nl - Update data (restricted) - View data (public)

Monitoringtool - Urban roads(SRM-1) - Rural roads, highways (SRM-2) - Agriculture (SRM-3)

Generic input I.e. Emission factors, meteo, backgrounds concentrations

(ministry IenM)

Local roads Roads and traffic data,

effects of measures (local municipalities,

natl. roads: rijkswaterstaat)

Schiphol Agriculture

(ministry IenM)


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Quality of the monitoring ● Critical review (Wesseling en Beijk, 2010): system with great

potential but also some issues:

– Quality of input data and effects of measures: limited quality control and documentation (in 2010).

– Actualization process: focus on limit values, quite a number of errors.

– Large uncertainties: focus on limit values, without a margin for uncertainties leads to a predictable number of ‘hidden’ exceedances.

– Completeness: only the larger projects are included in the NSL monitoring.

– Health: there was not enough focus on health effects (in 2010).


MONITORING TOOL

https://www.nsl-monitoring.nl


https://www.nsl-monitoring.nl


Show locations Show roads Show transfers Measures Corrections All roads Topography

Select monitor Monitoring round Year to view Jurisdiction


Amsterdam


Concentrations, NO2, 2013


Intensities traffic, 2013


Road types, 2013


Speed type, 2013


Congestion, 2013


Calculation transfer, 2013


Detail concentration


Detail traffic


Detail transfer


Areas with measures

EXCEEDANCES 2015



Amsterdam, NO2, 2013


Amsterdam, NO2, 2015


Rotterdam, NO2, 2013

Exceedances 2013, calculated NSL


Near livestock

NO2, all PM10 daily limit PM10 near livestock

Exceedances 2015, calculated NSL


NO2, all PM10 daily limit

UNCERTAINTIES


The effects of uncertainties ● All calculations and measurements are uncertain.

● The results of calculations for the NSL are subject

to different types of uncertainties. – Systematic: are the general basis assumptions regarding

back grounds and emission factors correct?

– Random: every concentration is calculated using many assumption. On average the assumptions will be correct but for a specific individual location the assumption may not be correct.


Effect systematic uncertainties NSL

• Predictions for the

future have an uncertainty of 20-30%

• In the Netherlands many concentrations are just below limit values.

• Small changes in de predictions can have a significant effect of the number of exceedances. Variation emission factors

Var

iatio

n ba

ckgr

ound

s

Expected NO2 exceedances in 2015

Expe

cted

NO

2 ex

ceed

ance

s in

201

5


Effect random uncertainties NSL

Highest concentrations, sorted

Expected NO2 in 2015 Limit value (40.5)

NO

2 c

once

ntr

atio

n [

ug

/m3

]




NO

2 c

once

ntr

atio

n [

ug

/m3

]




NO

2 c

once

ntr

atio

n [

ug

/m3

]

Was exceedance Not any more

Turns out to be an exceedance


AIR QUALITY NOW



National network NO2, trend

Rural urban street


Rural urban street

National network PM10, trend


National network PM2.5, trend

Rural urban street

2013


56 56 SEPA | December 2014 56

scottish urban air quality steering group - modelling & monitoring workshop - joost wesseling

Environment

monitoring nsl sepa

no2 sepa

nl sepa

air quality models sepa

local model results

model system background

model approval

netherlands monitoring