seals, dolphins & salmon in the moray firth paul thompson university of aberdeen
TRANSCRIPT
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Seals, dolphins & salmon in the Moray Firth
Paul Thompson
University of Aberdeen
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0
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40000
50000
60000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tot
al c
atch
of s
alm
on
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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tot
al c
atch
of s
alm
on
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Breeding Stock Size
EggsParr
Smolts
.
Net & Rod Catches
Seals Dolphins
Food
Food
Climate variation/change
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Breeding Stock Size
Net & Rod Catches
EggsParr
Smolts
.
Seals Dolphins
Food
Food
Climate variation/change
Industrial Pollution
Mergansers
CormorantsPorpoises
Killer whales
Pike
Cod
Poaching
Acid rain
Red deer
Over-grazing
Alien introductions
Goosanders
Afforestation
Tourism
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• Is predation by seals and dolphins significant?
• If so, can we do anything about it?
• If so, is it cost-effective?
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Is predation by seals and dolphins significant?
• Carry out an experiment
• Use a natural experiment
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0
2000
4000
6000
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10000
12000
14000
16000
600 700 800 900 1000 1100
Moray Firth harbour seal abundance
Sal
mon
cat
ches
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1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000Size of Beauly River Salmon Run
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dol
phin
abu
ndan
ce
F 1,9 = 6.35, p < 0.05, r2 = 0.41
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Is predation by seals and dolphins significant?
• Carry out an experiment
• Use a natural experiment
Requires info on predators’
population size diet
food consumption
•Model consumption of salmon
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A little of what we know, and a lot of what we don’t
Grey Seal Bottlenose Dolphin
Harbour Seal
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year
15000
20000
25000
30000
3500040000
Pup
Pro
d uct
ion
2001 UK population ~ 130,000 (+/- 15%)
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Max
Mo
nth
ly C
ou
nt
1988 1989
Seasonal changes in haul-out counts
Movements of satellite tagged grey seals caught in the Moray Firth
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Moray Firth
Cardigan Bay
Western Isles
NORTH SEA
Firth of Forth
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129 individuals
(95% Confidence Limits = 110 - 174)
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1990-1995
1996-2000
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UK population ~ 50,000
Moray Firth ~ 1,000
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1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
ME
AN
CO
UN
T (
+/-
s.e
. )
Moray Firth Trends
August Moult counts
June/July Pupping Counts
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Harbour Seals Grey Seals0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Clupeids
Gadids
Flatfish
Sandeels
Salmonids
Cephalopods
Others
Grey & harbour seal diet
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87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95
Year
0
20
40
60
80
100
Die
t Com
posi
tion
(%)
Year-to-year variation of clupeids in harbour seal winter diet
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Breeding Stock Size
Net & Rod Catches
EggsParr
Smolts
.
Seals Dolphins
Food
Food
Climate variation/change
Mergansers
Cormorants
Porpoises
Killer whales
Pike
Cod
Poaching
Goosanders
• Is predation by seals and dolphins significant?
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• Is predation by seals and dolphins significant?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5Probability
•If so, can we do anything about it?
• If so, is it cost-effective?
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http://www.abdn.ac.uk/zoology/lighthouse
http://smub.st-and.ac.uk/