Second National Communication of the Kyrgyz Republic

under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Zuhra Abaihanova

Climate Change Policy AdviserUNDP Environmental Programme in KR

Side event: Bonn Climate Change Talks, 5 June 2009

Key challenges under the SNC preparation

Lack of institutional, technical and financial capacity to:• maintain regular GHG inventory process

• provide the long-term climate forecasting • re-assess the long-term hydro-power potential of the country

Lack of legal potential to deal with climate change issues at the sub-national and sector levels (laws, acts, methodologies)

Insufficient policy-makers’ awareness and support to climate change related activities (adaptation, mitigation)

Main outcomes: GHG inventory

Greenhouse gas inventory for 2001–2005 and re-assessment of the time period of 1990- 2000

Sectors:• Energy;• Industrial processes;• Use of solvents and other production;• Agriculture;• Land use, land use change and forestry;• Wastes.

GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC,PFC, SF6

Gases-precursors: CO, NOx, NMVOC, SOx

GHG emission sum per sectors

Total emission of gases-precursors per gases

Main outcomes: Vulnerability and Adaptation

Observed climate change for 1885-2005, centigrade.

According to the assessment based on the instrumental observations from 1883 to 2005, an average temperature trend for the republic made up 0.79°С for 100 years.

In average, by the end of the century the air temperature will increase from 4°С to 6°С.

Precipitation will change in the range of -3% to +2%.

Vulnerability and Adaptation

Sectors:

• Water resources Vulnerability indicators - parameters of glaciers, volume of the surface water-flow, parameters of lakes

• Agriculture Vulnerability indicators - heat availability, productivity of various types of crops and pastures

• Population health Vulnerability indicators – morbidity and mortality rate

• Climatic emergency situations Vulnerability indicators - frequency of mudflows, landslides, breaches of high-mountainous and glacial lakes, avalanches

V&A: Water resources

Glaciers number:The 60th – about 82002100 - 142-1484

Glaciers volume: 2000 - 420 cubic km2100 - 40-170 cubic km

Surface water flow:Current status – 47 cubic km2100 - 24 - 33 cubic

km

01000200030004000500060007000

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Десятилетия

Кол

иче

ство

лед

ни

ков

Сохранившиеся Исчезнувшие

State of glaciation by 2100

As compared to the Glacier Catalogue of the 60s. Extant glaciers marked with dark blue, the melted marked with red.

V&A: AgricultureV&A: Agriculture

V&A: AgricultureV&A: Agriculture

Crops productivity

05

1015202530354045

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Assessment of change trends in the main crops productivity till 2100 per regions

V&A: Population health

Vulnerability assessment covered only such diseases, as:• cardiovascular diseases, • acute intestinal infections, and • malignant neoplasms. Increase in morbidity and mortality rates connected to

cardiovascular diseases, acute intestinal infections.

Forecast for cancer morbidity revealed the opposite dependencies (increased for women and slightly reduced for men).

Groups of risk – children and aged people.

Expected monthly average morbidity rate for acute intestinal infections in

Bishkek city under two climatic scenarios (per 100 thousand people)

Expected average annual morbidity rate for cardiovascular system diseases for Chui region

(per 100 thousand people)

V&A: Population health

V&A: Dynamics of emergency situations for expected climate change

Main outcome: Climate change mitigation

Assessment of GHG emissions under three scenarios of the Republic’s development:

• A - with no mitigation actions been undertaken, i.e. with preservation of all existing conditions and correlations at the national level, but in view of worldwide tendencies of technologies development;

• В - taking into account the mitigation actions defined in the national and sector development plans;

• С - taking into account the mitigation actions in line with the national and sector development plans, as well as additional actions to be undertaken within long-term outlook.

Estimated cost and expected emission reduction in 2100 from the measures stipulated in the national and sector development

plans and from additional measures

Experience and lessons learnt

• The methodologies for estimation of GHG emission from the sources not covered by the IPCCC Guidelines have been developed and used – blast works, antimony and mercury production, secondary metal fusion; inventory time series continued;

• Assessment of retrospective climate change tendencies has been done by means of the national method - method of annual changes analysis – and gave a possibility to use all available observations.That helped to receive a continuous line of climate change trends since 1983.

• Synergy in collaboration with other relevant activities in the country and

programme approach have effectively resulted in incorporation of the SNC developments and recommendations into the Country Development Strategy and other strategic development documents at the national, sub-national and local levels.

Recommended studies under the TNC

• GHG inventory time series continued;• Fuller vulnerability assessment for the population health

at the national level ( the SNC studies are of fragmentary character as cover separate regions and the capital);

• Vulnerability assessment for the sector of agriculture with a use of modeling methods (i.e. modeling of crop productivity assessment related to CC)

• Re-assessment of hydro-power potential of the country in view of the long-term CC forecast, as well as agricultural needs, water distribution at the CA regional level, etc.

Thank you for your kind attention!