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Securities offered through Securities Service Network, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Fee-based advisory servicesoffered through SSN Advisory, Inc., a registered investment advisor.
Securities offered through Securities Service Network, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.Fee-based advisory services offered through SSN Advisory, Inc., a registered investment advisor.
EMICO Advisory Services and Securities Service Network Inc. are separate companies.Securities Service Network Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice; consult your tax or legal advisor
regarding your particular situation.
The indices mentioned in this seminar are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information contained in this commentary has been obtained from sources that are reliable. This presentation is for
information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or
Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.
FORMALITIES
1. Putting the S&P 500 in Perspective
2. Factors Affecting the Stock Market in 2014
3. The U.S. Economy in 2014
4. 2015 Forecasts
AGENDA
COMPARING RETURNS ACROSS ASSET CLASSES
Source: Russell, MSCI, Standard & Poor's, NAREIT, Barclay's Capital, JP Morgan. Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014MSCI Barclays MSCI Russell 2000 NAREIT Equity NAREIT Equity Russell 2000 NAREIT Equity
Emerging Markets Aggregate Bond Emerging Markets Growth REIT Index REIT Index Growth REIT Index39.78% 5.24% 79.02% 29.09% 8.3% 19.7% 42.77% 28.0%MSCI Diversified Russell 2000 NAREIT Equity Barclays MSCI Russell 2000 S&P 500EAFE Portfolio Growth REIT Index Aggregate Bond Emerging Markets 37.23% Growth
11.17% -27.28% 34.47% 27.9% 7.84% 18.63% 13.01%S&P 500 Russell 2000 MSCI Russell 2000 S&P 500 Russell 2000 Russell 2000 S&P 500Growth Value EAFE 26.85% Growth Value Value 11.39%9.13% -28.92% 31.78% 4.65% 18.05% 31.96%
Russell 2000 Russell 2000 S&P 500 Russell 2000 S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500Growth -33.79% Growth Value 2.11% Value Growth Value7.05% 31.57% 24.50% 17.68% 30.14% 9.61%
Barclays S&P 500 NAREIT Equity MSCI Diversified MSCI S&P 500 Diversified Aggregate Bond Growth REIT Index Emerging Markets Portfolio EAFE 29.64% Portfolio
6.97% -34.92% 28.0% 19.20% 0.15% 17.32% 7.76%Diversified S&P 500 Russell 2000 S&P 500 S&P 500 Russell 2000 S&P 500 Barclays
Portfolio -37.00% 27.17% Value Value 16.35% Value Aggregate Bond5.70% 15.10% -0.48% 28.28% 6.00%
S&P 500 NAREIT Equity S&P 500 Diversified Russell 2000 S&P 500 MSCI Russell 20005.49% REIT Index 26.47% Portfolio Growth 16.00% EAFE Growth
-37.7% 15.40% -2.91% 23.30% 4.94%S&P 500 Russell 2000 Diversified S&P 500 Russell 2000 S&P 500 Diversified Russell 2000
Value Growth Portfolio 15.06% -4.18% Growth Portfolio 4.90%1.99% -38.54% 24.74% 14.61% 19.65%
Russell 2000 S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500 Russell 2000 Russell 2000 NAREIT Equity Russell 2000-1.57% Value Value Growth Value Growth REIT Index Value
-39.22% 21.17% 15.05% -5.50% 14.59% 2.9% 2.15%Russell 2000 MSCI Russell 2000 MSCI MSCI Diversified Barclays MSCI
Value EAFE Value EAFE EAFE Portfolio Aggregate Bond Emerging Markets-9.78% -43.38% 20.58% 7.75% -12.14% 13.58% -2.00% -1.80%
NAREIT Equity MSCI Barclays Barclays MSCI Barclays MSCI MSCIREIT Index Emerging Markets Aggregate Bond Aggregate Bond Emerging Markets Aggregate Bond Emerging Markets EAFE
-15.7% -53.18% 5.93% 6.54% -18.17% 4.21% -2.30% -4.50%
COMPARING RETURNS ACROSS ASSET CLASSES
Source: Russell, MSCI, Standard & Poor's, NAREIT, Barclay's Capital, JP Morgan. Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014MSCI Barclays MSCI Russell 2000 NAREIT Equity NAREIT Equity Russell 2000 NAREIT Equity
Emerging Markets Aggregate Bond Emerging Markets Growth REIT Index REIT Index Growth REIT Index39.78% 5.24% 79.02% 29.09% 8.3% 19.7% 42.77% 28.0%MSCI Diversified Russell 2000 NAREIT Equity Barclays MSCI Russell 2000 S&P 500EAFE Portfolio Growth REIT Index Aggregate Bond Emerging Markets 37.23% Growth
11.17% -27.28% 34.47% 27.9% 7.84% 18.63% 13.01%S&P 500 Russell 2000 MSCI Russell 2000 S&P 500 Russell 2000 Russell 2000 S&P 500Growth Value EAFE 26.85% Growth Value Value 11.39%9.13% -28.92% 31.78% 4.65% 18.05% 31.96%
Russell 2000 Russell 2000 S&P 500 Russell 2000 S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500Growth -33.79% Growth Value 2.11% Value Growth Value7.05% 31.57% 24.50% 17.68% 30.14% 9.61%
Barclays S&P 500 NAREIT Equity MSCI Diversified MSCI S&P 500 Diversified Aggregate Bond Growth REIT Index Emerging Markets Portfolio EAFE 29.64% Portfolio
6.97% -34.92% 28.0% 19.20% 0.15% 17.32% 7.76%Diversified S&P 500 Russell 2000 S&P 500 S&P 500 Russell 2000 S&P 500 Barclays
Portfolio -37.00% 27.17% Value Value 16.35% Value Aggregate Bond5.70% 15.10% -0.48% 28.28% 6.00%
S&P 500 NAREIT Equity S&P 500 Diversified Russell 2000 S&P 500 MSCI Russell 20005.49% REIT Index 26.47% Portfolio Growth 16.00% EAFE Growth
-37.7% 15.40% -2.91% 23.30% 4.94%S&P 500 Russell 2000 Diversified S&P 500 Russell 2000 S&P 500 Diversified Russell 2000
Value Growth Portfolio 15.06% -4.18% Growth Portfolio 4.90%1.99% -38.54% 24.74% 14.61% 19.65%
Russell 2000 S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500 Russell 2000 Russell 2000 NAREIT Equity Russell 2000-1.57% Value Value Growth Value Growth REIT Index Value
-39.22% 21.17% 15.05% -5.50% 14.59% 2.9% 2.15%Russell 2000 MSCI Russell 2000 MSCI MSCI Diversified Barclays MSCI
Value EAFE Value EAFE EAFE Portfolio Aggregate Bond Emerging Markets-9.78% -43.38% 20.58% 7.75% -12.14% 13.58% -2.00% -1.80%
NAREIT Equity MSCI Barclays Barclays MSCI Barclays MSCI MSCIREIT Index Emerging Markets Aggregate Bond Aggregate Bond Emerging Markets Aggregate Bond Emerging Markets EAFE
-15.7% -53.18% 5.93% 6.54% -18.17% 4.21% -2.30% -4.50%
DISCLOSURES
The indices mentioned on the previous slide are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All data is sourced from Yahoo Finance and MSCI unless otherwise noted. All data are as of 12/31/14.
The "Diversified Portfolio" model is a weighted average of the following: 25% in S&P 500, 25% in Barclay's Aggregate, 10% in Russell 2000, 10% in MSCI EAFE, 5% in MSCI EME, 5% in Russell 2000 Growth, 5% in Russell 2000 Value, 5% in S&P 500 Growth, 5% in S&P 500 Value, and 5% in NAREIT Equity REIT Index.
S&P 500 measures the performance of large capitalization U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-value-weighted index of 500 stocks that are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. The weightings make each company’s influence on the Index performance directly proportional to that company’s market value.
S&P 500 Growth and S&P 500 Value measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in large cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those S&P 500 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than average growth orientation. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive.
Russell 2000 measures the performance of small capitalization U.S. stocks. The Russell 2000 is a market-value-weighted index of the 2,000 smallest stocks in the broad-market Russell 3000 Index. These securities are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ.
Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in small cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the Russell 2000 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those Russell 2000 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than-average growth orientation. Securities in the Value Index generally have lower price-to-book and price-earnings ratios than those in the Growth Index. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive.
MSCI EAFE is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of the developed stock markets of Europe, Australasia, and the Far East.
MSCI Emerging Markets is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of equity markets in 21 emerging countries around the world.
NAREIT Equity REIT Index is a composite index of all tax-qualified real estate investment trusts (REITs) that are listed on the NYSE, the American Stock Exchange or the NASDAQ National Market List.
Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (formerly the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index) includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year.
1. Putting the S&P 500 in Perspective
2. Factors Affecting the Stock Market in 2014
3. The U.S. Economy in 2014
4. 2015 Forecasts
AGENDA
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. All data as of December 31st, 2014.
2014 SNAPSHOT
D J M A M J J A S O N D1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
S&P 500 - 2014 Performance
Dec 31 Close: 1,848.36 2013
Dec 31 Close: 2,058.9 2014
11.39%
D J M A M J J A S O N D1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
S&P 500 - 2014 Performance
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. All data as of December 31st, 2014.
MARKET EVENTS IN 2014
Fed Interest Rate Hike
Jitters
Emerging Markets Selloff
Ebola & Europe
Oil Price Declines
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Data are as of 12/31/14.
LABOR MARKET PERSPECTIVES
LOW GASOLINE PRICES GIVE CONSUMERS A BREAK
$3.77 Jun 2014
$2.63 Dec 2014
$4.11 Jul 2008
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. As of 11/24/14
CORPORATIONS ARE FLUSH WITH CASH
Source: Standard & Poor’s, FRB, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Securities, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
(Top left) Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Data are as of 12/31/14.
Source: BLS.gov, online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Survey conducted December 2014. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of economists throughout the year.
FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
0.11%
0.35%
0.96%
1.58%
2.23%
Federal Funds Rate2007 - est. 2016
Actual Forecast
1. Putting the S&P 500 in Perspective
2. Factors Affecting the Stock Market in 2014
3. The U.S. Economy in 2014
4. 2015 Forecasts
AGENDA
HOUSEHOLD FINANCES ARE HEALTHIER
Source: BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Revolving includes credit cards. **4Q14 household debt service ratio and 4Q14 household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Data are as of 12/31/14.
IS THE NATIONAL DEBT UNSUSTAINABLE?
1946: 113%
1974: 24%
Source: U.S. Treasury, BEA, CBO, St. Louis Fed, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Note: Years shown are fiscal years (Oct. 1 through Sep. 30). 2015 numbers are CBO estimates as of August 2014.
Data are as of 12/31/14.
THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY REMAINS STRONG
Source: The Conference Board, U.S. Federal Reserve as of 8/31/14.1. The composite index of leading indicators is an index published monthly by the Conference Board, used to predict the direction of the economy’s movements to come. The index is made up of 10 economic components, whose changes tend to predict changes in the overall economy. It is not possibly to invest directly in an index. Past
performance does not guarantee future results.
IS SENTIMENT TOO HIGH?
Source: University of Michigan, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Peak is defined as the highest index value before a series of lower lows, while a trough is defined as the lowest index value before a series of higher highs. Subsequent 12-month S&P 500 returns are price returns only, which excludes dividends. Impact on
consumer sentiment is based on a multivariate monthly regression between 1/31/2000 – 5/31/2014. Data are as of 12/31/14.
INFLATION IS TAME
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food and energy prices.
Data are as of 12/31/14.
1. Putting the S&P 500 in Perspective
2. Factors Affecting the Stock Market in 2014
3. The U.S. Economy in 2014
4. 2015 Forecasts
AGENDA
Name/Company 2015 S&P 500 Target
David Bianco, Deutsche Bank 2,150
Brian Belski, BMO 2,250
Jonathan Gilonna, Barclays 2,100
Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup 2,200
David Kostin, Goldman Sachs 2,100
Dan Greenhouse, BTIG 2,200
Jonathan Golub, RBC 2,325
Julian Emmanuel, UBS 2,225
Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suisse 2,100
Savita Subramanian, BofA Merrill Lynch 2,200
Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley 2,275
John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer 2,311
Tom Lee, FundStrat 2,325
GROUP AVERAGE 2,212 (7.45% growth)
Source: Business Insider, 2015
2015 FORECASTS
2015 INTEREST RATE FORECASTS
Source: Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
*Forecasts of 17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, midpoints of central tendency except for federal funds rate which is a medium estimate.
Data are as of 12/31/14.
HISTORICAL S&P 500 GROWTH PATTERNS
Source: Robert Shiller, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data shown in log scale to best illustrate long-term index patterns. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Data are as of 12/31/14.
ARE STOCKS OVERVALUED?
Source: Standard & Poor’s, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Dividend yield is calculated as the annualized dividend rate divided by price, as provided by Compustat. Forward Price to Earnings Ratio is a bottom-up calculation based on the most recent S&P 500 Index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Returns are cumulative and based on S&P 500 Index price movement only, and do
not include the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 12/31/14.
INTRA-YEAR DIPS ARE NORMAL
Source: Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. Intra-year drops refers to the largest market drops from a peak to a trough during the year. For illustrative purposes only. *Returns shown are calendar year returns from 1980 to 2014.
Data are as of 12/31/14.
THE PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE REAL CHANGE IN S&P 500
Source: New York Times, Standard & Poor’s, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Average GDP growth of 3.2% based on figures for 1946 to 2010. Figures show total return, assuming reinvestment of dividends, adjusted for annual change in Consumer Price Index.
FOREIGN MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
Source: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forward Price to Earnings Ratio is based on each index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings per share (EPS) in the next 12 months (NTM),and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 12/31/14.
DIVERGING INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENTS
Source: T. Rowe Price. As of September 30, 2014.Chart is for illustrative purposes only, and does not reflect actual interest rates. As of September 30, 2014.
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
At EMICO Advisory Services, we partner with clients in a personal and caring environment to provide goal-based financial advice that enables clients to
experience retirement with confidence and peace of mind
WEBSITE
www.emicoadvisory.com