seds transportation sector modules
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SEDS Transportation Sector Modules. Anant Vyas and Deena Patel Argonne National Laboratory Presented at SEDS Peer Review Washington, DC May 7-8, 2009. Transportation Sector in Context of SEDS. Converted Energy. Primary Energy. Macroeconomics. End-Use. Biomass. Biofuels. Buildings. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
SEDS Transportation Sector Modules
Anant Vyas and Deena PatelArgonne National Laboratory
Presented at SEDS Peer ReviewWashington, DCMay 7-8, 2009
Transportation Sector in Context of SEDS
Macroeconomics
Biomass
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Biofuels
Electricity
Hydrogen
Liquid Fuels
Buildings
Heavy Transportation
Industry
Light Vehicles
Macroeconomics Converted EnergyPrimary Energy End-Use
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Major Transportation Components• Light Duty Vehicles
Cars*Light Trucks*
• Heavy Duty TransportationHighway (Trucks and Buses)*AviationPipelineRailWaterFarm & Off-highway* Only cars, light trucks, and medium & heavy trucks are evaluated through the Portfolio Decision Support
(PDS)
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Light Duty Data Flow
Macroeconomics
GDP, Population 16-84
Liquid Fuels
Light DutyVehicles
Hydrogen
Natural Gas Natural Gas Price
Hydrogen Price
Gasoline, Diesel and Ethanol Prices
Electricity Electricity Price
Liquid Fuels
MacroeconomicsVehicle Expenditures
Hydrogen Demand
Flex-fuel Demand
Electricity Demand
Gasoline & Diesel Demand
CO2 Produced
Bio-Fuels
Hydrogen
Natural Gas
Electricity
LPG/CNG Demand
Incoming Data Outgoing Data
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Major Assumptions for Light Duty Vehicles
• National estimates (no regional estimates)
• Annual vehicle miles and fuel use estimated
• Vehicle choice model adapted from EERE/OVT Multi-Path Study
• EPA dynamometer test fuel economy estimates degraded by a factor of 0.8 for ICE vehicles and 0.85 for HEV and FCV (can be revised to match the new 5-cycle method)
• Energy use by flexible-fuel vehicles estimated for the Liquid Fuels Module to separate as ethanol blended gasoline and E85
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Major Components of Light Duty SectorVehicle Technologies1.Conventional 2.Conventional Diesel3.Advanced Diesel 4.Flex-fuel 5.CNG/LPG 6.Electric 7.Charge-Sustaining (CS) HEV8.Flex-fuel CS HEV9.Diesel CS HEV10.Gasoline Plug-in HEV11.Flex-fuel PHEV12.Diesel PHEV13.Hydrogen Fuel Cell PHEV14.Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
Vehicle Choice: Based on a two-stage multi-nomial logit model
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0.9
1.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30Vehicle Age
Su
rviv
al P
rob
ab
ility
fro
m N
ew
Cars
Lt Trucks
Vehicle Survival
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
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10,000
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14,000
16,000
18,000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30Vehicle Age
An
nu
al M
iles
pe
r V
eh
icle
Cars
Lt Trucks
Age-Dependent Usage
ICE
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EV/HEV
FCV
Decision Flow In Light Duty Module
Future Car and Light
Truck Sales
Vehicle Characteristics by Technology
Vehicle Choice Model
MacroeconomicData
Fuel Price
Future Light Duty Vehicle
Sales
Car and Light Truck Sales Shares
by Technology
Future Car and Light
Truck Sales by
Technology
Historical Car and Light Truck Sales by
Technology
Vehicle Survival and Age
Dependent Usage
Car and Light Truck VMT, Fuel Use by
Fuel Type and CO2 Emissions
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Light Duty Data Sources
• Vehicle survival and annual usage functions from NHTSA/NCSA report Vehicle Survivability and Travel Mileage Schedules (2006)
• Vehicle price and MPG from AEO 2008 and PDS 2010
• Other Vehicle Characteristics adapted from DOE/EERE Multi-path Study
• Historical vehicle sales from AAMA and Ward’s Motor Vehicle Facts & Figures (various editions)
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Heavy Duty Transportation Data Flow
Macroeconomics
GDP, Population, Income
Liquid Fuels
Heavy DutyTransportation
Natural Gas Natural Gas Demand
Gasoline, Diesel and Crude Prices
Petroleum Products Demand
Liquid Fuels
MacroeconomicsTruck Sales
Electricity Demand
Gasoline, Diesel , Jet Fuel and
Residual Fuel Demand
CO2 Produced
Bio-Fuels
Natural Gas
Electricity
Natural Gas Demand
Incoming Data Outgoing Data
Coal Coal Demand
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Heavy Duty Transportation Modes and Fuels
Medium and Heavy Trucks*
Gasoline (ethanol blend), LPG/CNG,
and Diesel (bio-fuel blend)
Buses
Gasoline (ethanol blend), CNG, Diesel (bio-fuel blend), and
Electricity
Domestic, International, and General
Aviation
Jet Fuel (can be bio-fuel blend) and Aviation gasoline
PipelinesNatural Gas
and Electricity
RailDiesel and Electricity
WaterGasoline,
Diesel, and Residual Fuel
Farm & Off-Highway
Gasoline (ethanol blend) and Diesel (bio-
fuel blend)
* Only medium and heavy trucks are evaluated through the Portfolio Decision Support
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Major Assumptions for Heavy Transportation• National and annual estimates developed
• Medium and heavy trucks will continue to use gasoline and diesel fuel
• Medium and heavy truck VMT will be sensitive to fuel cost per mile
• Buses will rely increasingly on diesel fuel
• Aviation will continue to improve its energy intensity (Btu/RPM), but the rate of improvement will decline over time
• Rail will improve ton-miles hauled per diesel gallon at a rate slower than the historical
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Heavy Transportation Energy Use Estimation
Macroeconomic Data
Medium & Heavy Truck
Sales
Truck Survival and Age
Dependent Usage
Truck VMT and Fuel Use
Macroeconomic Data & Crude Cost
Domestic and International
RPM
Domestic and International
BTU/RPM
Domestic and International Jet
Fuel Demand
General Aviation Jet Fuel and Aviation Gasoline Demand
Medium & Heavy Trucks
Aviation
Coal Demand Rail Ton-MilesRail Diesel
DemandRail TMT per Diesel Gallon
Rail
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Heavy Duty Energy Demand Estimation
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Natural Gas Demand
Pipeline Natural Gas Demand
PipelinePetroleum
Products and Crude Demand
Pipeline Electricity Demand
Coal and Distillate Fuel
Demand Water Diesel and Residual Fuel Demand
Water
Crude Cost
Macroeconomic Data Farm & Off-
highway gasoline and
Diesel Demand
Farm & Off-highway
Crude Cost
Heavy Transportation Data Sources
• Truck sales from AAMA and Ward’s Motor Vehicle Facts & Figures
• Truck survival rates from ORNL’s Transportation Energy Data Book
• Truck age dependent annual usage from Census Bureau’s Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey
• Energy consumption by mode and fuel type from Oak Ridge National Lab’s Transportation Energy Data Book
• Aviation data from U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics and Federal Aviation Administration
• Rail ton-miles and fuel use from AAR’s Railroad Facts• Farm & off-highway diesel use from DOE/EIA
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SEDS (Deterministic) and AEO 08 Projections
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0
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10,000
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45,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tra
nsp
ort
atio
n E
ner
gy
Use
Tri
llio
n B
tu
Gasoline+Flexfuel--SEDS Diesel--SEDS Jet Fuel--SEDS
Total--SEDS Gasoline+E85--AEO Diesel--AEO
Jet Fuel--AEO Total--AEO
AEO 2008 projections end in 2030. Data are extrapolated to 2050 by applying average annual growth during 2025-2030.
Light Duty Energy DemandReference Scenario
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Light Duty Energy DemandHigh Oil Scenario – Change from Reference Scenario
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Light Duty VehiclesVMT and MPG
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Heavy Duty Energy DemandReference Scenario
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Heavy Duty Energy DemandHigh Oil Scenario – Change from Reference Scenario
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Future Work• Complete stochastic versions of both transportation
modulesIncorporate stochastic distributions of light vehicle prices
and fuel economiesIncorporate stochastic distribution of medium and heavy
truck fuel economiesIncorporate stochastic distributions of aviation and rail
energy intensities
• Investigate and update long-term VMT elasticity for light duty vehicles and medium & heavy trucks
• Make light truck share of new LDV sales sensitive to fuel price
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