Water Security: A Key Driver of Global Food Supplies

Pr. Mohamed Ait KadiChair GWP Technical Committee

San Jose, Costa Rica, August 9, 2012

Plan of this talk

1. Will food supply keep up with growing demand?

2. What are the key levers 0f a solution?

M. AIT-KADI

Since 1992, 80% of countries have embarked on reforms to

improve the enabling environment for water resources

management based on the application of integrated

approaches as stated in Agenda 21 and affirmed in the

Johannesburg Plan of Implementation

UN-Water Status Report for Rio+20

21st Century a Changing & less Predictable World Profound changes in price relativities with much local variability

>$100 oil; all fossil fuels more expensive

Other non-renewable raw materials – more expensive

Water - scarcer/costlier many places

Land – more competition

A more unpredictable climate

Future increased dependence on what can be grown – Food, Feed, Fiberand Fuel (4Fs)

What hasn’t changed ? The need to eat ~ 9 billion people by 2050 & changing diets

>> The challenge = TO BALANCE FUTURE FOOD DEMAND & SUPPLY SUSTAINABLY

M. AIT-KADI

Food

Security

Geopolitical

Risks

Economic

Risks

Societal

Risks

Env.

Risks

WaterScarcity

ExtremeWeather

F/D/DES

BiodiversityLoss

GovernanceGaps

Globalization

Food PriceVolatility

Oil PriceVolatility

Migration

Chronicdisease

Food Security &

Interconnected Global Risks

M. AIT KADI

Problems can’t be solved by countries acting in isolation

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

200

400

600

800

US

$/b

arr

el

US

$/t

on

Corn

Wheat

Rice

Oil (right scale)

Source: von Braun 2008 with data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.

Diverse policy responses to food crisisTrade

restriction

Trade

liberaliz.

Consumer

subsidy

Social

protection

Increase

supply

AsiaBangladesh X X X X

China X X X X

India X X X X X

Indonesia X X X

Malaysia X X X

Thailand X X X

Latin AmericaArgentina X X X X

Brazil X X X

Mexico X X X

Peru X X X

Venezuela X X X X

AfricaEgypt X X X X

Ethiopia X X X X

Ghana X X

Kenya X

Nigeria X X X

Tanzania X X X

Source: von Braun 2008 with data from IMF, FAO, and news reports, 2007-08.

« Land – grabs »

Rio

ts

PoliticalStability

Food Security

Energy Security

The volatility in food prices in 2008 should be treated as a warning sign of what is to come!

Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

The age of consequences

State failures

International conflicts

Migrations

Difficulties of supplying cities

Increasing food insecurity

More competition over water resources

Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

Plan of this talk

1. Will food supply keep up with growing demand?

2. What are the key levers of a solution?

M. AIT-KADI

Will Food Supply Keep up With Growing Demand?

Drivers of Demand are Well Understood

• Population Growth • All in LDCs

• Income Growth

Mostly in LDCs

• Urbanization: Up from 50% to 70%

• Shift in Food Preferences: Wheat, Maize &

Soybeans for Feed

• Biofuels: maize, oilseeds

• Processed Foods

Increased Risk and Uncertainty on the Supply Side

• Limits to Land, Water, Soils, Biodiversity, Forests, Fisheries

• Slowing Productivity Growth

• Stagnant Investment levels in R & D

• Energy prices/High input & transport costs

• Increased Risks and Uncertainty from climate change/variability

• Interlinked International Markets (Globalization, Information & Standards, Supermarkets..)

M. AIT-KADI

Key Drivers of Global Food Suply

1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land

2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities

3. Declining Agricultural Productivity

4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change

M. AIT-KADI

« Thirst for water & Hunger for Land »

Comparing regional long term perspectives

M. AIT-KADI

Regional per capita availability of water is declining

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1960 1990 2025

Africa

World

Asia

MENA

‘000 m3

Rising Water Use

In The 20th Century,

Population Grew Three-fold,

But Water Use Grew Six-

fold!

Rivers are Overtaxed

Underground water is being mined at unsustainable rates

and 10% of world grain production

depends on unsustainable aquifer withdrawals.

Asia will be a major importer (China)WANA also;SSA could feed itself with a low increase of per

capita food ratio;Latin America will be a major exporter (Brazil,

Argentina) but with important ecological risksCanada and Russia could benefit from climate

change and increase their export capacityUSA and EU could increase also but in weak

proportions

>>> Food self-sufficiency is not a viable option

M. AIT-KADI

Agrimonde Scenario - 2050% Consumption/Production KCAL

Regions Agrimonde2003

Agrimonde1

MENA - 32% - 63%SSA - 12% -53%LA + 11 % + 32%

Asia - 2% - 19%Ex-USSR -2% +77%

OECD-1990 + 6% + 46%M. AIT-KADI

Key Drivers of Global Food Suply

1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land

2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities

3. Declining Agricultural Productivity

4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change

M. AIT-KADI

Changes within the agricultural sectorIncreasing land & water inelasticities

M. AIT-KADI

Maize production and use for fuel ethanolUSA 1995-2010

Key Drivers of Global Food Suply

1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land

2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities

3. Declining Agricultural Productivity

4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change

M. AIT-KADI

Decapitalisation of Agriculture

Irrigated

Area

Food price index

World Bank lending

for irrigation

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

0

Africa Irrigation

M. AIT-KADI

Agricultural productivity growth is slowing

Source: World Bank Development Report 2008 (figure refers to developing countries only)M. AIT-KADI

World cereal production: Not growing enough

0

300

600

900

1,200

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Wheat Coarse grains Rice Total (right)

Source: Data from FAO 2003, 2005-07.

Million tons Total Million tons

70%

M. AIT-KADI

Key Drivers of Global Food Suply

1. Growing Scarcity of Water & Land

2. Increasing Water & Land Ineslasticities

3. Declining Agricultural Productivity

4. Threats to Agriculture From Climate Change

M. AIT-KADI

Model-Projected Runoff Change (%)

[(2041-2060)-(1900-1970)]

(Milly et al., 2005)

Climate Change = A threat multiplier

Increased Frequency & Intensity of

Floods & Droughts

Modified from Puri & Arnold, 2002

Need to Understand the Complex

Relations Between Climate, Land/Water

Use, Surface/Subsurface Flows + Feed

back SUPPLY & DEMAND

Multiple-Aquifer

Stresses

Multiple-Aquifer

Flow Systems &

Flow Directions

Complex Climate

Relations

Regional Flow Systems

GW/SW

Relations

Climate change risks

Expected impact on agricultural output potential

(% change1961-90 compared to 2070-90)

Without carbon fertilization

With carbon fertilization

World -15.9 -3.2

Industrial countries -6.3 7.7

Developing

countries -19.7 -7.7

Middle East/

North Africa -21.2 -9.4

Morocco -39.0 -29.9

Source: Cline 2007.

Daily per capita calorie availability withan without climate change

Source: Food Policy Report, IFPRI, September 2009

World food price increases and climate changevarious scenarios (2010-50)

Food Security will Detrioratein its 4 dimensions

M. AIT-KADI

Conclusion:Long term (2050) global food abundance is not

totally guaranteed;

No reason to become Malthusian and prophesyfamines

But the constraints { reduction of availble lands, water scarcity,increased risks of natural disasters, biodiversity loss, social responsiveness} are soimportant that we have to consider a potential riskfor temporary food scarcity,

And a long term increase of food prices!

M. AIT-KADI

Plan of this talk

1. Will food supply keep up with growing demand?

2. What are the key levers of a solution?

M. AIT-KADI

Produce more food;With higher yields;In all kinds of agriculture, mainly poor;With higher input pricesWith climate change (water scarcity, floods,

droughts) and need for adaptationBeing environmental friendly,But with better prices!!

A NEW EQUATION

M. AIT-KADI

More food must be produced sustainablythrough better water management, the spread and implementation of existingknowledge, technology and best practices, and by investments in new science and technology and rural and social infrastructures that enable farmers to benefit from all of these;

M. Ait-Kadi

More Crop Per Drop!

• The political and economicgovernance of the water and foodsystems (at both national and international levels) must beimproved to increase productivityand sustainbility

M.Ait-Kadi

Policies to help households cope

Eliminate agricultural trade barriers, incl. stop biofuelsubsidies

M.Ait-Kadi

Comment nourrir l’humanité?

Thank you!

This is a unique time in history – decisions made now willdisproportionately influence the future !!! M. AIT-KADI