semi equipment and materials outlook equipment and materials outlook dan tracy sr. director,...

SEMI Equipment and Materials Outlook

Dan Tracy

Sr. Director, Industry Research & Statistics

SEMI

8 September 2016

Outline

Industry Stats Update

SEMI Equipment Outlook

Fab Materials Market

Packaging Materials Market

Summary

Year-to-Date “Snapshot”-

Y-o-Y trends are moving into positive territory

-5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0%

IC Units (July)

Equipment Billings (July)

Equipment Bookings (July)

Leadframe Units (July)

Silicon Wafer Shipments (July)

Litho Chemicals (June)

Process Gases (June)

MFC Units (June)

MFC Billings (June)

% Y-o-Y Change

Year-over-Year Growth Comparison

Source: SEMI and SIA/WSTS

Fab Equipment Spending Outlook: Maintained positive outlook for 2016

Forecast Date

2016 Growth

Estimate

2017 Growth

Estimate

Aug 2015 ~7% n/a

Nov 2015 ~3% n/a

Feb 2016 ~4% ~13%

May 2016 ~2% ~13%

Aug 2016

(current)

~4% ~11%

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast

Some Key Fab Projects

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

NAND Foundry China SEA

US

$ B

illio

ns

Fab Investments (including construction and equipping)

2015 2016F 2017F

NAND

• Micron Fab 10X in Singapore

• Flash Alliance Fab 2

• Intel Fab 68 in China

• Samsung NAND fab in Xian and Line 18

• SK Hynix M14

• XMC’s new 3D NAND fab in China

Foundry

• GLOBALFOUNDRIES Fab 8 phase 2

• Samsung S2 and S3

• SMIC Beijing B2 and B3.

• TSMC Fab 12, Fab 14 and Fab 15

• UMC Fab 12A P5 and Xiamen fab.

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, August 2016

New Fab Activity-

21 Fabs to begin construction; 11 in China

Changing Fab Landscape: 200mm Capacity is Back!

Semiconductor Equipment Forecast

SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio-

Highest 3-mma Bookings Since 2010

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Ja

n-1

4

Feb

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Feb-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

n-1

6 (

f)

Ju

l-1

6 (

p)U

S$

Mill

ion

s

North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill (based on three month averages)

Bookings Billings

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

Ja

n-1

4

Feb-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Feb

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Apr-

15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Jun-1

6 (

f)

Ju

l-1

6 (

p)

Book-t

o-B

ill R

atio

Source: SEMI August 2016

Total Semiconductor Equipment Spending-

Recent Order Activity has Improved

Source: SEMI/SEAJ

2016 Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Billings

(U.S. Dollars in Millions)

Region 2016 Year-to-

Date (July)

2015 Year-to-

Date (July)

Y/Y %

Change

Europe $849 $1,323 -35.6%

Japan $2,649 $3,115 -15.0%

North America $2,499 $3,472 -28.0%

Korea $3,771 $5,416 -30.4%

Taiwan $5,542 $5,332 3.9%

China $4,438 $2,642 68.0%

SEA/ROW $2,248 $1,139 97.3%

Total $21,996 $22,439 -2.0%

Bookings (US$ M)

Y/Y %

88.9%

-38.8%

-30.5%

-16.5%

43.5%

33.4%

90.4%

8.9%

Year-over-Year Bookings Comparison-

Etch/Clean, CVD, Insp/Mtrlgy Up; Litho down

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000

Lithography

Etch/Clean

CVD

Other Dep.

Insp./Metrology

Test

A&P

US$ Millions

YTD Bookings (through July)

2015 2016

Source: SEMI/SEAJ

2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F

China 3.38 4.37 4.90 7.22 7.05

Europe 1.92 2.38 1.95 1.74 2.64

Japan 3.38 4.18 5.49 4.60 5.14

Korea 5.22 6.84 7.46 6.30 8.29

North America 5.27 8.16 5.12 4.74 5.07

SEA/ROW 2.08 2.15 1.97 3.33 3.35

Taiwan 10.57 9.41 9.63 9.94 9.98

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

US

$ B

illio

ns

Taiwan SEA/ROW North America Korea Japan Europe China

$31.82

$36.52 $37.87

$41.52

$37.50

SEMI® 2016 Equipment Forecast-

By Market Region

Source: SEMI September 1st Update Totals may not add due to rounding

SEMI® 2016 Mid-Year Equipment Forecast-

By Equipment Segment

2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F

Other 1.42 1.63 1.90 1.86 2.04

Test 2.72 3.55 3.33 3.53 3.64

Assembly & Pack. 2.32 3.06 2.51 2.51 2.60

Wafer Process 25.36 29.26 28.78 29.97 33.24

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

US

$ B

illio

ns

Wafer Process Assembly & Pack. Test Other

$31.82

$37.87 $36.52

$41.52

$37.50

Source: SEMI September 1st Update

Totals may not add due to rounding

Fab Materials Outlook

Silicon Shipment Index-

Steady Growth in 200mm over Previous 3-Years

Source: SEMI

% Annual

Growth

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

YTD July

200mm -1.8% 1.6% 5.3% 3.0% -2.6%

300mm 5.5% -0.7% 16.3% 7.1% 1.2%

Global Silicon Wafer Diameter Trends

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

F

20

17

F

Mill

ion

s o

f S

qu

are

In

ch

es

Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2015; Forecast SEMI March 2016

Includes polished and epi wafers. Excludes reclaim, non polished, and SOI.

300 mm

200 mm

150 mm

Advanced Lithography Materials-

Revenue Recovery*

$USM 2014 2015 2016F

193 resists $622 $584 ~$630

ARC $512 $422 ~$430

Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription August 2016

* Avg. Yen/$: ~120 in 2015 and ~110 1H 2016

Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast

Actual Forecast

2014 US$ M

2015 US$ M

2016 US$ M

2017 US$ M

Silicon Wafers1 $7,990 $7,580 $7,560 $7,648

Photomasks2 3,220 3,267 3,343 3,438

Photoresist 1,374 1,326 1,406 1,422

Photoresist Ancillaries3 1,711 1,796 1,871 1,884

Wet Chemicals4 1,422 1,416 1,446 1,484

Gases 3,481 3,497 3,551 3,578

Sputter Targets 629 628 639 671

CMP Slurry & Pads5 1,569 1,588 1,651 1,734

Other/New Materials 2,855 3,022 3,179 3,280

Total $24,250 $24,121 $24,646 $25,129

% Growth -0.5% 2.2% 2.0%

Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI August 2016

Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Notes

1. Silicon wafers include merchant sales value only; includes

SOI wafers; no reclaim wafers

2. Includes captive market

3. Includes resist removal chemicals, developers, anti-reflective

coatings, contrast enhancers, edge bead removers,

adhesion promoters, etc.

4. Source is Linx Consulting LLC, includes precious metals

5. Estimates for IC applications only

6. Includes low k dielectrics, copper plating solutions, dielectric

precursors, organometallic precursors, etc.

7. All forecasts in current dollars

8. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated


Regional Fab Materials Markets-

~2% Growth in 2016

China 8%

Europe 10%

Japan 18%

Korea 19%

North America

18%

SEA/ROW 5%

Taiwan 22%

2015 = $24.1 billion

Region 2016F

$US B

2017F

$US B

%

Change

China $2.11 $2.24 6.3%

Europe 2.46 2.47 0.5%

Japan 4.41 4.42 0.3%

Korea 4.65 4.78 2.8%

North America 4.34 4.33 -0.2%

SEA/ROW 1.25 1.31 5.2%

Taiwan 5.43 5.58 2.8%

Total $24.6 $25.1 2.0%



Packaging Materials Outlook

Worldwide Packaging Materials Forecast

Actual Forecast

2014 US$ M

2015 US$ M

2016 US$ M

2017 US$ M

Leadframes $3,206 $2,991 $3,017 $3,048

Organic Substrates1 7,694 7,779 7,841 7,658

Ceramic Packages 2,075 2,082 2,122 2,153

Encapsulation Resins 2,555 2,583 2,758 2,910

Bonding Wire2 3,364 2,924 2,771 2,775

Die Attach Materials3 664 679 700 720

Others 232 258 292 323

Total $19,790 $19,296 $19,501 $19,587

% Growth -2.5% 1.1% 0.4%



Source: Amkor

Worldwide Packaging Materials Forecast Notes

1. Source is TechSearch International. Includes PBGA,

PPGA, LGA, and CSP laminates

2. Assume gold value of $1,260/trz for 2014, $1,188/trz for

2015, $1,200/trz for 2016, $1,300/trz for 2017

3. Includes die attach film (tape) materials

4. Other includes solder balls and wafer level package

dielectrics

5. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated

6. All forecasts in current dollars


Regional Packaging Materials Markets

Region 2016F

$US B

2017F

$US B

%

Change

China $4.42 $4.60 4.2%

Europe 0.63 0.64 0.5%

Japan 2.38 2.34 -1.5%

Korea 2.48 2.48 -0.2%

North America 0.60 0.59 -1.5%

SEA/ROW 4.79 4.75 -0.8%

Taiwan 4.21 4.19 -0.4%

Total Regions $19.5 $19.6 0.4%



China 22%

Europe 3%

Japan 12%

Korea 13%

North America

3%

SEA/ROW

25%

Taiwan 22%

2015 = $19.3 billion

Packaging Material Market Trends

• CSP laminate substrates, CSP leadframes, and WLP are driven by mobile computing and communications

• Flip chip and copper pillar continue to expand the market for underfill materials. • Need more development for WLP dielectrics used in multi-layer structures

• Mold compounds- warpage control/package reliability (MSL1); withstand high flexing for wearable applications • QFN- cost optimization through design (including strip size) and reduced plating area (also improves MSL); higher lead counts (routable); improved power dissipation

Source: SEMI and TechSearch International- Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook

Laminate Substrates

• ~$7.8B market

• Stable supply base

• Good demand/supply balance in recent years

• Flip chip substrate suppliers

– Bump pitch trends drive finer features and higher substrate prices

– Previously, focused on MPU and graphics applications

– Now, the focus is on mobile applications- growth market but more cost sensitive and shorter development cycles

– Laminate CSP could be impacted by growth in FO-WLP

Source: SEMI and TechSearch International- Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook

Silicon versus Organic Substrates Revenues

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F

Reven

ue

s

(US

$ M

illio

ns)

Silicon Organic Substrates

Source: Techsearch & SEMI, August 2016 Silicon revenues do not include SOI or reclaimed silicon

Summary

Summary

Equipment

• Strong order activity so far this year

• Forecasting ~3% growth in 2016 and 10% to 11% in 2017

• 3D NAND and China investments key to spending

Materials

• Low-single digit unit growth

• $44.1 billion market in 2016; growing to $44.7 billion in

2017

SEMI Market Data Reports and Databases

Fab Forecast

Semiconductor, Power

Devices, MEMS, Opto/LED

• World Fab Forecast

• FabFutures

• World Fab Watch

• SEMI FABVIEWNew

• Fab Equipment

Monitor

• Global 200mm Fab

Outlook to 2018

• Customized Fab

Transition Report

• Global Semiconductor

Packaging Materials

Outlook

• China Semiconductor

Packaging Market

Outlook

• Opto/LED Fab Watch

or Forecast

• Customized

Benchmark Data

Collection

• Regional Spotlights

Packaging Market

and Other Market

Material Market

Semiconductor

Materials

• Material Market Data

Subscription

• Photomask

Characterization

Report

• Silicon Reclaim Wafer

Characterization

• Customized

Benchmark Data

Collection

• Global Semiconductor

Packaging materials

Outlook

Equipment & Component

Market

• Equipment Market

Data Subscription

- Book-to-Bill Report

- Semiconductor

Equipment Market

Statistics (WWSEMS)

- New Equipment Forecast

• SEMI Secondary Fab

Equipment Report

• Mass Flow Controller

Market Statistics

• Regional Trends

semi equipment and materials outlook equipment and materials outlook dan tracy sr. director,...

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