semicon japan 2009 - semiconductor equipment and materials outlook
DESCRIPTION
An overview and forecast of the global semiconductor equipment and materials market. Also, includes a summary of the semiconductor packaging materials market. This was presented at SEMICON Japan by Dan Tracy of SEMI Taiwan. Additional Resources: http://www.semi.org/fabs http://www.semi.org/marketinfoTRANSCRIPT
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 20091
Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Outlook
Dan TracySEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group
December 2, 2009
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 20092
Outline
Update on current market and forecast for,
Semiconductor Equipment
Semiconductor Materials
Summary
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 20093
Silicon Area Shipment Index
Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group November 2009
Worldwide Wafer Area Shipment Index(Three-month moving average)
507090
110130150170190210230250
Jan-
98M
ay-9
8Se
p-98
Jan-
99M
ay-9
9Se
p-99
Jan-
00M
ay-0
0Se
p-00
Jan-
01M
ay-0
1Se
p-01
Jan-
02M
ay-0
2Se
p-02
Jan-
03M
ay-0
3Se
p-03
Jan-
04M
ay-0
4Se
p-04
Jan-
05M
ay-0
5Se
p-05
Jan-
06M
ay-0
6Se
p-06
Jan-
07M
ay-0
7Se
p-07
Jan-
08M
ay-0
8Se
p-08
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9Se
p-09
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 20094
Semiconductor Equipment
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 20095
Semiconductor Equipment Spending by Region
Europe, 7%
Japan, 16%
North America,
25%Korea, 15%
Taiwan, 23%
China, 6%
Rest of World, 8%
Source: SEMI/SEAJ October 2009
2009 Year-to-date through SeptemberMarket Billings = $10.2B
2008 Market Billings = $29.5B
Europe, 8%
Japan, 24%
North America,
19%
Korea, 17%
Taiwan, 17%
China, 6%
Rest of World, 9%
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 20096
0.45
0.550.650.750.850.951.051.15
Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 (f) Oct-09 (p)
Boo
k-to
-Bill
Rat
io
Source: SEMI November 2009
SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 (f) Oct-09 (p)
US$
Mill
ions
Bookings Billings
North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill(based on three month averages)
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 20097
SEAJ Japan Book-to-Bill Ratio
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09
US$
Mill
ions
Bookings Billings
Source: SEAJ October 2009
Japanese Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill(based on three month averages)
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09
Boo
k-to
-Bill
Rat
io
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 20098
Worldwide Semiconductor (Fab, Test & Assembly) Equipment Trends
Worldwide Bookings and Billings forSemiconductor Equipment
(based on 3-month averages)
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
Jan-
97A
pr-9
7Ju
l-97
Oct
-97
Jan-
98A
pr-9
8Ju
l-98
Oct
-98
Jan-
99A
pr-9
9Ju
l-99
Oct
-99
Jan-
00A
pr-0
0Ju
l-00
Oct
-00
Jan-
01A
pr-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Jan-
02A
pr-0
2Ju
l-02
Oct
-02
Jan-
03A
pr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Jan-
04A
pr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct
-04
Jan-
05A
pr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06A
pr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct
-06
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08A
pr-0
8Ju
l-08
Oct
-08
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9Ju
l-09
US$
Bill
ions
Billings Bookings
Source: SEMI/SEAJ October 2009
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 20099
Orders- First year-over-year improvement since 1Q 2007
Equipment Order Trends
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%1Q
200
7
2Q 2
007
3Q 2
007
4Q 2
007
1Q 2
008
2Q 2
008
3Q 2
008
4Q 2
008
1Q 2
009
2Q 2
009
3Q 2
009%
Cha
nge
Quarter-over-Quarter Year-over-Year
Source: SEMI/SEAJ
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200910
SEMI® 2009 Year-End Equipment Forecast By Market Region
Source: SEMI Mid-Year 2009 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, December 2009
Totals may not add due to rounding
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35
N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China ROW
ROW 2.61 1.40 2.31 2.96China 1.89 1.05 1.87 2.56S.Korea 4.89 2.95 4.47 5.90Europe 2.45 1.01 1.87 2.15Taiwan 5.01 4.04 5.92 7.76Japan 7.04 2.25 3.64 4.50N. America 5.63 3.33 4.41 5.39
2008 (A) 2009 (F) 2010 (F) 2011F
US$
Bill
ions
$16.03
$24.49
Totals may not add due to rounding
$29.52 $31.22
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200911
SEMI® 2009 Year-End EquipmentForecast By Segment
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Wafer Process Assembly & Pack. Test Other
Other 2.00 1.14 1.63 2.02Test 3.45 1.57 2.54 3.27Assembly & Pack. 2.04 1.36 1.95 2.38Wafer Process 22.03 11.95 18.37 23.55
2008 (A) 2009 (F) 2010 (F) 2011 (F)
US$
Bill
ions
$29.52
$16.03
$24.49
$31.22
Totals may not add due to rounding
Source: SEMI Mid-Year 2009 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, December 2009
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200912
Equipment Spending Trends
16%
13%15%
17%
20% 20%
17%
20%
14% 13%
17%
14%12%
16%
12%
24%
17%
13%
17%
7%
10%$139.0$140.7$166.6
$213.0$227.5
$262.3
$204.4
$125.6
$149.4$137.2
$132.0
$144.4$102.0
$77.0$60.0$55.0
$247.7$255.6
$248.6$219.6
$242.1
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
F20
10F
2011
F
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
US$
Bill
ions
Equipment Spending % of Semiconductor Revenue
Semiconductor Revenue ($B) WSTS
Source: SEMI and SIA November 2009
Line ChartBar Charts
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200913
Semiconductor Materials
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200914
Photoresist Market Trends
$0$25$50$75
$100$125$150$175$200$225
Glo
bal R
even
ues
$US
Mill
ions
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09
Advanced Positive NegativeSource: SEMI CGMG November 2009
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200915
Anti-Reflective Coatings Markets
104117 116
89
61
95 100
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100$110$120$130
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09
Rev
enue
s $U
S M
illio
ns
Global Anti-Reflective Coatings Market
*Total may differ slightly due to roundingSource: SEMI CGMG November 2009
America16%
Europe8%
Japan21%
Taiwan21%
Korea22%
Other Asia12%
2009 Market (year to date) = $256M
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200916
Leadframes-Shipments return to year ago levels
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription
Global Leadframe Shipments
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep
-08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9
Sep
-09
Mill
ions
of U
nits
IC Discrete
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200917
Gold Bonding Wire- Clear Transition to Smaller Diameter
% Share of Gold Wire Market by Diameter
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E
>30 micron 25-30 micron <25 micron
Source: SEMI and Techsearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200918
Packaging Materials Outlook
160.7
18.0
343
7,055
20107,4796,5737,574Organic Substrates
(K square meters)
171.3137.4158.0Mold Compound (millions of kg)
20.315.415.8Bonding Wire (billions of meters)
365300331Leadframes(billions of units)
201120092008Segment
Source: SEMI and Techsearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200919
Trends in China:
Packaging houses- More than 15 companies are capable of substrate-based packaging technology- Seven bumping fabs with wafer size arranged from 125mm to 300mm- TSV for CIS is under mass production
Packaging Materials- China is estimated to represent about 14% of the market in 2009- Substrate drives the growth of packaging material market in the next several years- China headquartered packaging material suppliers have made progress in leadframe, bonding wire, mold compound, and solder ball area
China Semiconductor Packaging Market
Source: SEMI China Semiconductor Packaging Market Overview
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200920
SEMI® 2009 Materials Forecast By Market Region
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia 6.90 5.97 7.09 7.57China 3.57 3.26 3.75 4.10S.Korea 5.90 4.68 5.14 5.58Europe 3.29 2.47 2.86 3.08Taiwan 7.90 6.76 7.85 8.55Japan 9.98 7.67 8.72 9.40N. America 4.93 3.68 4.27 4.63
2008 2009F 2010F 2011F
US$
Bill
ions
$42.47
$34.50
Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription Novmeber 2009
$42.91$39.69
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200921
Materials Forecast By Segment
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Fab Packaging
Packaging 18.32 16.73 18.65 19.58Fab 24.14 17.77 21.04 23.33
2008 2009F 2010F 2011F
US$
Bill
ions
Totals may not add due to rounding.
$42.47
$34.50
$39.69
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription November 2009
$42.91
SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 200922
Summary• Unit shipment trends
– Bottomed in January/February– Strong rebound into the third quarter
• Semiconductor Equipment Market– At the beginning of 2009, bookings fell to levels last reported in the early
1990s.– Bookings are improving from this bottom– Market forecast
• a -46% decline in 2009• +53% growth in 2010 and +28% growth in 2011
• Semiconductor Materials Market– 2009 forecasted to decline -19%– 2010 outlook to be inline with overall semiconductor market growth