september, 2013 strategy and analyses departmentpoland’s economic performance
TRANSCRIPT
September, 2013
Strategy and Analyses Department
Poland’sPoland’sECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
22
• Area: 323 thousand km2 - 9th in Europe, 69th in the world
• Population: 38.5 million - 8th in Europe,34th in the world
• Currency: Polish Zloty (USD 1 ≈ PLN 2.96) (EUR 1 ≈ PLN 4.12)
• GDP total: EUR 381.0 bln (USD 487.7 bln)
• GDP per capita PPP: EUR 16 800 (USD 20 592)
• GDP per capita: EUR 9 900 (USD 12 538)
• GDP growth: 4.5%*, 1.9%
• Membership: OECD, WTO, NATO, EU
Large domesticmarket
Central location in Europe
International legaland business
standards
Young and well- educated workforce
* Data for 2011
Strengths of PolandStrengths of Poland
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200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 000
1 800 000Entry into the NATO
OECD
WTO
Schengen
Poland joins the EU
Leader of GDP growth in EU
Poland’s GDP in mn PLN
Data: Poland’s CSO
PolandPolandSSustainableustainable and and balancedbalanced economic growth economic growth
EU Presidency
44
%
Data: Poland’s CSO
Poland’s Poland’s GDP GDP growthgrowth(% change. yoy)(% change. yoy)
According to CSO data. 2012 GDP growth amounted to 1.9%. The biggest growth contribution was made by net exports. According to CSO estimates. in the 1st half of 2013 growth
amounted to 0.7%.
2.6
3.7
5.1
7.0
6.2
7.1
5.04.5 4.3
1.2 1.4
3.9
5.3
3.6
6.26.8
5.1
1.6
3.94.5
1.91.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
* - MoE forecast
55
Nominal GDP of EU - CEE countries (PPS , EUR bn, Nominal GDP of EU - CEE countries (PPS , EUR bn, 2012)2012)
Data: Eurostat
Estonia23,5
Latvia32,3
Slovenia43,1
Lithuania53,3
Bulgaria88,4
Slovakia104,0
Hungary167,1
Czech Republic212,4
Romania267,7
Poland649,1
66 CEE & Balkan EU member statesCEE & Balkan EU member states GDP gGDP growth ratesrowth rates 202009-201209-2012 ((compared with the same compared with the same periodperiod of the previous year of the previous year))
Data: Eurostat
77
EU 10 GDP performance in 2004-2014EU 10 GDP performance in 2004-2014
Data: Eurostat, 2013-2014 - forecast
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EU 27 2,5 2,1 3,3 3,2 0,3 -4,3 2,1 1,6 -0,3 -0,1 1,4
Euro zone 2,2 1,7 3,2 2,9 0,4 -4,4 2,0 1,4 -0,6 -0,4 1,2
Bulgaria 6,7 6,4 6,5 6,4 6,2 -5,5 0,4 1,8 0,8 0,9 1,7
Czech R. 4,7 6,8 7,0 5,7 3,1 -4,5 2,5 1,9 -1,3 -0,4 1,6
Estonia 6,3 8,9 10,1 7,5 -4,2 -14,1 3,3 8,3 3,2 3,0 4,0
Latvia 8,9 10,1 11,2 9,6 -3,3 -17,7 -0,9 5,5 5,6 3,8 4,1
Lithuania 7,4 7,8 7,8 9,8 2,9 -14,8 1,5 5,9 3,7 3,1 3,6
Hungary 4,8 4,0 3,9 0,1 0,9 -6,8 1,3 1,6 -1,7 0,2 1,4
Poland 5,3 3,6 6,2 6,8 5,1 1,6 3,9 4,5 1,9 1,1 2,2
Romania 8,5 4,2 7,9 6,3 7,3 -6,6 -1,1 2,2 0,7 1,6 2,2
Slovenia 4,4 4,0 5,8 7,0 3,4 -7,8 1,2 0,6 -2,3 -2,0 -0,1
Slovakia 5,1 6,7 8,3 10,5 5,8 -4,9 4,4 3,2 2,0 1,0 2,8
88
1.1
8.3
3.7
11.6
-4.5
9.0
7.5
0.8
6.7
0.6
12.6
10.7
3.6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
output PPI
Data: Poland’s CSO
Data not fully comparable. From 2006 data base on a new methodology.
Poland’s iPoland’s industrial ndustrial pproductionroduction
January-July 2013 industrial production increased by 0.5% (yoy); prices of sold production of industry increased by 1.3%.
-0.3
0.9
18.1
2.5 3.0
12.4
-0.6
1.0
-6.4 -7.0
1.5
15.5
12.1
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
output PPI
99
Data: Poland’s CSO
Data not fully comparable. From 2006 data base on a new methodology.
Poland’s constructionPoland’s construction pproductionroduction
January-July 2013 construction production decreased by 17.7% (yoy); prices in construction sector decreased by 1.8%.
1010
January-July 2013 unemployment rate amounted to 13.1%; average employment (yoy) amounted to 5,488 thous. and the average wages and salaries in enterprise sector stood at PLN 3,781 (+1,9% yoy in real terms).
Data: Poland’s CSO
Labour market Labour market –– unemployment unemployment rate in Polandrate in Poland
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
I 2004
IV 2
004
VII
2004
X 2
004
I 2005
IV 2
005
VII
2005
X 2
005
I 2006
IV 2
006
VII
2006
X 2
006
I 2007
IV 2
007
VII
2007
X 2
007
I 2008
IV 2
008
VII
2008
X 2
008
I 2009
IV 2
009
VII
2009
X 2
009
I 2010
IV 2
010
VII
2010
X 2
010
I 2011
IV 2
011
VII
2011
X 2
011
I 2012
IV 2
012
VII
2012
X 2
012
I 2013
IV 2
013
VII
2013
%
1111
June-July 2013 consumer prices rose by 0.9%; prices growth was driven by a higher dynamics of food and non-
alcoholic beverages prices (by 3.5%). Housing charges rose by 1.7%, including energy carriers (by 0.2% yoy).
27,8 19,9
14,9
11,8
7,3
10,1
5,5
1,9 0,8
3,52,1
1,0
2,5
4,23,5
2,6
4,33,7
21,6
18,5
13,2
8,69,8
8,5
6,3
0,8 1,7
4,4
0,7 1,4
4,03,3 3,5
3,14,6
2,4
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
annual average XII/XII
Data: Poland’s CSO
Consumer Price Index in PolandConsumer Price Index in Poland
1212
Nominal trade value – PolandNominal trade value – Poland 2004-2012 2004-2012 (commodities; in EUR mln)(commodities; in EUR mln)
59 6
98 71 4
24 87 9
26 101
839
116
244
98 2
18
120
373 13
6 69
4
143
456
71 3
54 81 1
70 100
784 12
0 39
0 142
448
107
529
134
188 15
2 56
8
154
040
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Exports Imports Data: Poland’s CSO
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In 2012 the main receivers of Polish exports were developed countries (82.2%), in which UE countries (76%). The main Polish exports partners were Germany (25.1%), United Kingdom (6.8%) and Czech Republic (6.3%).
Poland’s foreign trade Poland’s foreign trade geographicalgeographical structure structure(according to CSO data for 2012)(according to CSO data for 2012)
Data: Poland’s CSO
ExportsExports ImportsImports
17.8%
76.0%
6.2%
European Union
Other developed
Developing countries
57.5%
7.1%
35.4%
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After 7 months of 2013 total Polish exports increased by 6.2%, to EUR 86.9 bn, whereas imports decreased by 1.7%, to EUR 87.5 bn.
Exports to Turkey increased by 4.6%, to above EUR 1.4 bn.
Polish imports from Turkey rose by 6.2%, to about EUR 1 bn.
In trade with Turkey Poland recorded a surplus of EUR 430 mn.
In January-July 2013, Turkey’s share of the total Polish turnover was: in exports – 1.7% in imports – 1.2%.
Trade Poland-TurkeyTrade Poland-TurkeyJanuary-July 2013January-July 2013
Data: Poland’s CSO
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Electromechanical products and its parts: 64.4% in exports 40.7% in imports
Chemical industry products: 14.2% in exports 11.1% in imports
Light industry products: 25.9% in imports
Metallurgical products: 9.5% in exports 10% in imports.
After 7 months of 2013 in Poland’s trade After 7 months of 2013 in Poland’s trade with Turkey the dominant role had:with Turkey the dominant role had:
Data: Poland’s CSO
1616
Foreign Direct Investments in PolandForeign Direct Investments in Poland
Main foreign investors in Poland are European Union countries. At the end of 2012 FDI inward stock accounted to EUR 176.9bn. According to NBP data for 2011, companies from the Netherlands,
Germany, France and Luxembourg are the biggest foreign investors in Poland
46.1 45.9
63.6
76.8
95.6
121.3116.6
128.5
161.4153.3
176.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EU
R b
n
Poland - Foreign Direct InvestmentsPoland - Foreign Direct Investments
Data: NBP
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According to NBP data, in 2011, Turkish companies invested in Poland EUR 62,9 million. The estimated stock of Turkish FDI in Poland at the end of 2011 amounted at EUR 26.5 million.
According to PAIiIZ in 2012 there were 6 companies with Turkish capital (Nurol Holding, Mesa Mesken AS, Niff Rubber Industry, Polimer Kaucuk Sanayu ve Pazarlama AW, Koc Holding – Beko Polska).
Companies from Poland invested in Turkey till the end of 2011 EUR 184.3 million.
Among the biggest Polish investors in Turkey are companies operating in IT sector (Asseco), pharmaceutical industry (Polpharma – biggest Polish investor in Turkey), and also in chemical industry (Selena).
According to PAIiIZ data 100 Polish companies want to invest in Turkey.
FDI Poland-TurkeyFDI Poland-Turkey(according to National Bank of Poland data for 2011)(according to National Bank of Poland data for 2011)
18 Ernst&Young Report – European Ernst&Young Report – European Attractiveness Survey 2013Attractiveness Survey 2013
Country 2011 2012Annual change
Share(2012)
1 Poland 121 148 22.3% 3.9%2 Russia 128 128 0.0% 3.4%3 Turkey 97 95 -2.1% 2.5%4 Serbia 67 78 16.4% 2.1%
5Czech Rep. 66 64 -3.0% 1.7%
Country 2011 2012
Annual
change
Share(2012
)
1 Russia 8,362 13,356 59.7% 7.8%2 Poland 7,838 13,111 67.3% 7.7%3 Serbia 13,479 10.302 -23.6% 6.0%4 Turkey 7,295 10,146 39.1% 6.0%5 Romania 5,985 7,114 18.9% 4.2%
Number of jobs created by FDI in CEE
Number of FDI Projects in CEEPoland was the continent’s strong performer
in 2012, attracting 22.3% more projects than in 2011. Within the CEE region, Poland outpaced Russia to become the leading destination for FDI projects in 2012.
With 13,111 jobs created by FDI, up 67.3%, Poland ranked 3rd in terms of job creation for the whole of the continent (after the UK and Russia). US investments rose sharply in services projects, while German companies increased their presence in the automotive and logistics sectors.
Poland is also developing BPO centres in finance, accounting, contact and research.
Poland was the top improver globally in the past year, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2013 report. It has won attention as the fastest growing EU member since 2008, and benefts from a skilled native workforce and an extensive and able migrant workforce.
Poland was the leading CEE destination according to investors, claiming 37% of the votes.
Pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/500-507 Warsaw
tel +48 22 693 50 00fax +48 22 693 40 46
email [email protected] www.mg.gov.pl
Ministry of Economy
Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention
Ministry of Economy pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5 tel. +48 22 693 50 00 email: [email protected] and Analyses Department 00-507 Warsaw fax +48 22 693 40 46 web: www.mg.gov.pl
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