session 2 - non technical barriers presented by tim bruton

8/7/2019 Session 2 - Non Technical Barriers Presented by Tim Bruton

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/session-2-non-technical-barriers-presented-by-tim-bruton 1/20

Theimage cannotbe displayed.Your computer may nothaveenough memory toopen theimage,or the imagemay havebeen corrupted. Restartyour computer,and then open thefileagain.If thered x stillappears,you may havetodeletethe imageand then insertit again.

Non-Technical BarriersSolar Flair 09

Tim Bruton- NaREC




Criteria for any new technology

Does it work?

Is it affordable?

What is the benefit ?




Photovoltaics essential to modernlife




Photovoltaic power works

Preferred technology for satellites for 50 years

Cells from 1958 Pioneer Satellite BatchMission still functioning

Many system now still function well after 20

years 20 year manufacturers warranty usual




Does it work in the UK?

The Earth receives 6000 times more energy

from the sun than it consumes on a daily basis

University of Northumbria study for former

DTI- existing south facing roofs in UK cities

sufficient to generate the UK annual electricityproduction




Running Interference 1

� To replace one conventional

1000MW station with turbines would

mean filling Dartmoor AND theCountry needs 55000MW. At peak

demand! To replace ONE 1000MW

station with solar panels needs 1.5

Dartmoors Sir Bernard Ingham

Wind turbine action groups conference.June 19th 2004

UPPERMILL. SADDLEWORTH




Running Interference 2

� BP CEO Tony Hayward told

attendees of the Oil &Money conference thats

being held this week in

London that the goal of a

carbon-free economy is not

likely to happen anytime

soon, if at all

21st October 2009




Conspiracy Theorists

Western Nations have been kept in fear for

50 years by the threat of Communism

Environmental concerns date exactly from

the fall of the Berlin Wall

Michael Crichton State of Fear p 541




Spain Hits 50% Wind EnergyNew wind power record: 53.7% of Spains total

electricity demand09 de noviembre de 2009

Wind power in Spain reached a new record last night,providing at its peak 53.7% of Spains total electricitydemand 10.7% greater than the previous record set inNovember last year.

Spanish electricity grid, Red Eléctrica, said that todaysrecord is a first since it was sustained over several hoursduring last night. Between 03.00 and 08.30 on 8November wind met over 50% of electricity demand.

The surge in wind power last night triggered waterpumping stations which transport water into reservoirs.This store of water will then be released over the daygenerating electricity via water turbines at times of peakdemand.




Perception

Common belief UK

Climate is poor Influential people

dismiss

renewables/solar

Reality is solar will

work in the UK




The issue is cost

Typical electric power generation in the UK is

850kWhr/kWp For a £4300/kWp PV system installed plus 5%maintenance for 20 years give an electricity cost of 26.5p/kWhr vs 13p ( retail price)

42 year payback time on avoided electricity cost.

In a survey of architects by Romag Ltd 100% of respondents cited cost as the main barrier to use of PV.




Cost Reduction mechanisms

Silicon feedstock price reduction due to lower

demand and greater supply

Continuous technology improvement more

from less

New technologies: thin films concentrators




Product cost

MUSIC FM(1996)

CRYSTAL CLEAR(2005)

Feedstock (¼/kg) 20 30

Wafer Thickness (µm) 200 150

Wafer Size (mmxmm) 150 x150 200x200

Cell efficiency (%) 16 18Cost (¼/Wp) 1.2 1.0




Cost evolution




2020PV electricity pricePV electricity price

((¼ ¼ / kWh) / kWh)

0.200.20

0.140.14

0.10.177

0.130.13

0.110.11

PV electricityprices

compared with

expected consumer

electricity prices

(+ 1%/yr)

consumer electricity priceconsumer electricity price

((¼ ¼ / kWh) / kWh)

0.160.160.190.19

0.190.19

0.230.23

0.120.12

0.260.26

0.140.14

0.120.12




Feed in Tarrif transforms Affordability

From April 2009, a similar incentive scheme

to Germanys will be introduced in the UK torenumerate small scale suppliers of solar

generated electricity.




Benefits of PV

No electricity bills and no price increases

Actual income around £1200 p.a for a typical

house

Make a significant impact on Carbon Dioxide

reduction and avoiding further climatechange- 1.3 Tonnes of CO2 per house per year




UK roadmap

Exponential growth in UK market from 2010

Major expansion of employment in the installationsector

Development of solar cell and module manufacture

in the UK within 2 to 5 years

Self sustaining R&D investment and expansion of the

sector

session 2 - non technical barriers presented by tim bruton

Documents