One  reporter’s  perspec,ve  on  covering  Climate  Change  and  the  

occassional  Na,onal  Water  Emergency    Seth  Borenstein  AP  Science  Writer  

sborenstein@ap.org  On  TwiCer:  @Borenbears  

       

First,  I  like  cold  hard  data    

•  The  last  month  to  be  cooler  than  normal  globally  was  in  February  1985.  That  month  Mel  Gibson  was  named  People  magazine’s  Sexiest  Man  Alive.  Nearly  half  of  the  people  on  Earth  were  not  alive  then.  

That’s  336  months  in  a  row  

•  Flip  a  coin  336  ,mes.  The  odds  of  it  randomly  landing  heads  (warmer)  327  ,mes  in  a  row.  

•  1  in  138,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000    

•  (1.3  with  101  zeros,  that’s  more  than  a  googol)  

 

Condi,ons  today  

The  data  for  Lower  48  states  Week Date None D0-D4 D1-D4 D2-D4 D3-D4 D4 One Year Ago

02/28/12 42.48 57.52 38.66 19.50 7.63 2.50

Start of Water Year

09/25/12 23.41 76.59 65.45 42.12 21.48 6.12

Start of Calendar Year

01/01/13 27.22 72.78 61.09 42.05 21.31 6.75

3 Months Ago

12/04/12 23.84 76.16 62.37 42.22 20.63 6.49

Last Week 02/26/13 33.62 66.38 54.17 36.35 16.95 5.45

Current 03/05/13 34.33 65.67 53.34 36.44 17.04 5.45

Conditions for the Contiguous U.S.

Drought  disaster  declared  for  Oklahoma  (Jan.  2013)  

•  By  Shelby  Travis  •  via  The  Associated  Press    •  Oklahoma  City  —    •  The  U.S.  Department  of  Agriculture  has  designated  76  of  Oklahoma's  77  coun,es  

and  nearly  two-­‐thirds  of  Arkansas'  coun,es  as  primary  natural  disaster  areas  due  to  ongoing  drought  condi,ons.  

•  Wednesday's  declara,on  makes  farmers  in  the  areas  eligible  for  low-­‐interest  emergency  loans  of  2.15  percent.  

•  In  Oklahoma  —  only  OCawa  County  is  not  a  primary  disaster  area  —  but  farmers  there  are  also  eligible  because  the  county  is  con,guous  to  those  in  the  primary  disaster  declara,on.  

•  The  47  of  75  Arkansas  coun,es  that  are  primary  disaster  areas  are  in  the  northwestern  two-­‐thirds  of  the  state  and  farmers  in  coun,es  con,guous  to  those  coun,es  are  also  eligible  for  federal  assistance.  

•  U.S.  Agriculture  Secretary  Tom  Vilsack  designated  a  total  of  597  coun,es  in  14  states  as  primary  natural  disaster  areas  in  the  declara,on.  

•  Copyright  The  Associated  Press  

A  picture  tells  it  beCer  

Let’s  look  at  three  worlds  

• The  world  of  Scien,sts  • The  world  of  Climate  Science  • The  world  of  Journalism  

The  world  of  scien,sts  

•  1.  Data  not  anecdotes  •  2.  Objec,ve  not  subjec,ve;  “cool”  not  “hot”  •  3.  Incremental  •  4.  Lengthy  •  5.  Time  consuming    

Scien,sts  

             

Theori'cians    Experimentalists                  Communicators                

The  subcategory  of  Climate  Science  

•       Climate  averages  (like  yearly  global  

temp.  rainfall)    

Too  much,  too  liCle  water      

Climate  extremes  (such  as  hurricanes,  other  storms,  heat  

waves,  cold  snaps)  

The  world  of  Journalists  

•  1.  Anecdotes  more  than  data  •  2.  Subjec,ve  (“How  do  you  feel?”)  A  hot  not  a  cool  medium  

•  3.  Drama  •  4.  Brief  •  5.  Fast.  

The  world  of  Journalists  

       Science/Tech/Medical/Explainer  

     

General  Assignment    

Poli,cs    

Television  Morning  Show    

         Sports  reporters    

Celebrity  journalists    

Put  them  all  together  

•     

So  What’s  in  that  intersec,on  

•  Climate  Extremes  •  Heat  Waves  •  Storms  •  Science  Writers  •  Good  science  communicators  who  are  scien,sts  

•  b  

What’s  not  in  that  intersec,on    

•  Most  television  media  •  Many  poli,cians  •  The  poli,cal  he-­‐said,  she  said  sense  of  balance  when  it  comes  to  the  science  of  climate  

•  And  most  importantly  for  this  session:  WATER  ISSUES  

The  climate  extreme  that  doesn’t  come  off  so  well  on  television  

 

• Drought  is  incremental  

• It  happens  slowly    

And  water  is  

• Taken  for  granted  unless  you  have  too  liCle  or  too  much  of  it.  Think  of  your  last  meal,  your  yard,  fountains  of  Las  Vegas,  golf  courses.  

But  if  you  talk  to  experts  

• Water  is  where  we’ll  have  more  conflicts,  wars,  fights,  lawsuits,  and  changes  in  lifestyle.  Either  because  of  too  liCle  or  too  much.  

• Water  effects  us  everyday,  more  than  heat  or  storms.  

Some  advice  for  journalists  

•  From  an  old  hand  who  got  into  science  and  environment  wri,ng  in  1989  solely  because  of  what  was  then  the  largest  drought  in  South  Florida  records.  

Check  Water  Bills  •  Officials`  Water  Bills  Show  Increase  

•  January  28,  1990|By  MICHAEL  SAUNDERS,  and  SETH  BORENSTEIN,  Staff  Writers  •  Faced  with  a  record  water  shortage,  regional  water  managers  asked  -­‐-­‐  then  

ordered  -­‐-­‐  4  million  South  Florida  residents  to  use  less  water.  •  But  many  of  those  officials  did  not  follow  their  own  orders,  their  water  bills  show.  •  Five  members  of  the  South  Florida  Water  Management  District`s  governing  board  

are  on  public  water  supplies  in  areas  where  residents  were  asked  or  ordered  to  cut  water  use.  Only  two  of  those  five  cut  back,  and  the  district`s  top  execu,ve  used  about  40  percent  more  water  in  January  than  in  December.    

•  In  April,  the  district  imposed  three-­‐day-­‐a-­‐week  limits  on  outdoor  water  use  in  northeast  Broward  County.  In  July,  the  same  restric,ons  were  imposed  in  northeast  Palm  Beach  County,  and  on  Dec.  18,  restric,ons  were  imposed  from  Jupiter  to  Key  West.  Residents  were  told  to  trim  consump,on  by  15  percent.  

•  ``We  have  to  live  with  what  we  preach,  absolutely,``  said  water  board  member  Arsenio  Milian  of  Miami,  whose  December  water  bill  reflected  a  33  percent  increase  over  his  previous  bill.  

 

Be  ready  to  change  at  the  drop  of  rain  

•  Dry  Despite  Deluge  I  spent  months  on  a  big  narra,ve  piece  on  how  horrible  and  mass  effec,ng  the  drought  was.  The  day  before  it  was  to  run,  it  didn’t  just  rain,  it  was  a  deluge.  So  we  had  to  vamp  on  the  story,  with:  hCp://ar,cles.sun-­‐sen,nel.com/1989-­‐06-­‐30/news/8902180487_1_everglades-­‐na,onal-­‐park-­‐rain-­‐freshwater-­‐fish  

Think  Bringing  It  Home  To  People  

•  We  decided  to  look  at  day-­‐to-­‐day  water  use  in  people’s  homes  and  got  a  family  of  four  to  let  us  monitor  their  every  day  water  use,  even  lesng  us  in  the  shower  with  the  dad  (he  wore  swim  trunks):  

•  hCp://ar,cles.sun-­‐sen,nel.com/1990-­‐04-­‐15/news/9001030015_1_severe-­‐water-­‐shortages-­‐limited-­‐water-­‐supply-­‐droughts  

Thank  you  

•  Seth  Borenstein  •  Science  Writer,  The  Associated  Press  •  Washington  DC;  202-­‐641-­‐9454  •  Sborenstein@ap.org;  TwiCer:  @borenbears  •  hCp://bigstory.ap.org/  •  hCp://bigstory.ap.org/content/seth-­‐borenstein  

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