Shaw Trust / CDG

Merger Plan SupportP

LMI Why?The impact and value of local labour market information to colleges, local authorities and local enterprise partnerships Youth Employment Convention #yec2013

9 May 2013

Speakers...

• Ben Verinder, Associate Director, PublicCo

• Paul Bivand, Associate Director, Inclusion

• Lovedeep Vaid, Senior Statistician, Inclusion

• Sue Gidman, Associate Director, PublicCo

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Avoiding LMI in isolation...student attitudes

Nothing in Common: The career aspirations of young Britons mapped against projected labour market demand (2010 - 2020)But – are young people more sensible than the forecasters?

4

Avoiding LMI in isolation...employer attitudes

UKCES 2013

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Avoiding LMI in isolation...employer attitudes

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Avoiding LMI in isolation...the environment

Macleod Associates 2013

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Avoiding LMI in isolation...the environment

“Giving robust careers guidance while improving student attitudes to work and boosting their basic employability skills are the most important elements in effective training for young unemployed people, according to colleges

“Inconsistent rules about what types of courses are funded, the availability of local jobs and the difficulties colleges have in tracking student progress are the biggest barriers to working effectively with the unemployed, say colleges..”

“It is particularly important that students are not encouraged by agencies to leave their college course in order to take up very short-term jobs, cutting short their training and their chances of sustainable employment.”

Job Skills?

Providing careers guidance

Tracking destinations performance

Developing college marketing /student

recruitment

Designing curriculum (case for new courses or

changes)

Undertaking business development & funding

opportunities

Developing business cases for investment and

potential mergers and acquisitions

Analysis of MI @ college level:

Enrolments, completions destinations

Headline labour market & economic analysis:Supply and demand

Market Analysis: competition & existing

provision

Curriculum designBespoke / tailored

analysis

Bespoke analysis: ad-hoc business development / M&A/new employers etc

College activities / functions

Data requirements

LMI is required to support a range of college activities and functions

Local provision & employer demand for skills - How well does the college meet the needs of the local labour market, and how does this compare to competitors

Strategic analysis of supply & demand in the local economy - How is the labour market changing and what are the qualification requirements for different jobs

Future skills and job needs - What is future employer demand for skills and qualifications

College LMI

Module 1:Use your Management

InformationWhich college subject areas

currently align with recent jobs and vacancies by detailed occupations -in the college catchment area and

beyond?How do these ‘in demand’ subject

areas compare with college enrolments, success rates and

other management information –and how do you compare with

rival colleges and schools?

Module 2:Strategic intelligence: LMI

Which occupations are growing and which are seeing a rise in wages?

Which occupations are sought by claimants?

What qualification levels are needed for these occupations? And how does that

match with local skill levels?How does this compare with combined

college output data (FE Choices)?

Curriculum planning

(faculty/College)

Career planning

(students)

Module 3: Future demand

What skills and qualifications are likely to be needed by

employers? What industries and

occupations are forecast to grow?

What GCSE qualifications are students arriving with?

Rigorous analysis to identify local needs, behaviours and skills mismatches

Module 1Aligning college subject areas to recent jobs and vacancies by detailed occupations:

1) Labour Force Survey jobs by 4 digit occupations taken up in the last 3 months matched to the LFS subject area of original qualification.

2) LFS subject areas aggregated to Tier 2 ILR sector subject areas

3) JCP vacancies ramped up to full vacancy count by using LFS4) Highlight ILR ‘in demand’ subject areas needed to satisfy job demand.

College catchment areas:

1) Modelled to local authorities by using populations by occupation from the Census and the Annual Population Survey.

2) LA’s can be aggregated to make up ever widening catchment areas or other areas such as LEPS.

Compare with own college management information and rival colleges

1) Colleges can compare subject area analysis against own management information on enrolment, completions (in year and trends), learner destinations, Types of users (individual vs employer), employer/learner satisfaction

2) Use starter and success rate date from the ‘Education and Training National Success Rates Institution Reports’ from the Data Service MI library to compare rival college status against ‘in demand’ subject areas.

Local provision & employer demand for skills

falling jobs and rising wages rising jobs and rising wages

falling jobs and falling wages rising jobs and falling wages

Module 2: LMI

Align pay by occupation from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings to occupations making up ILR subject areas.

Show subjectarea matrix:

Trends in occupations sought by claimants from the DWP set against vacancies: Dynamic Ratio. Occupation characteristics from the Labour Force Survey: part time/full time, self employed and gender. Which occupations are being taken up by students?

Highest qualification levels of those entering employment by occupation from the Labour Force Survey matched against local skill levels using the Census and Annual Population Survey.

falling jobs and rising wages rising jobs and rising wages

falling jobs and falling wages rising jobs and falling wages

Strategic analysis of supply & demand

Module 3

Skills and qualifications likely to be needed by employers: 1) UKCES Employers Skills Survey results for local areas.2) Review of Sector Skills Council Reports: sector skill shortages

and occupation demand from Employers

Occupation forecasts: use UKCES ‘Working Futures’ analysis to take forward subject area matching exercise to show future demand. Results are meant to be seen as indicative of likely trends given a continuation of past patterns of behaviour and performance.

Incoming student profiles: full GCSE achievements by subject for schools in the relevant local authorities.

Future skills and job needs

(dummy numbers)

Example output: subject area opportunities

(dummy numbers)

Information can be used to create year on year trajectories

Example output: college MI and rivals

falling jobs and rising wages

rising jobs and rising wages

falling jobs and falling wages

rising jobs and falling wages

Examples of output: occupations and earnings matrix

Focus Key activities OutputAssess current use across the college

• Audit the understanding and use of LMI across the college to identify any gaps or opportunities

• Review current skill levels to use and interpret LMI• Critique and feedback on current service levels

A clear identification of strengths & weaknesses in the current LMI function

Develop expertise • Identification of relevant LMI sources • Assistance with analytical techniques• Development of reporting and interpretation

capability

Increased competence in analysing and interpreting LMI

Undertake tailored training • Conduct training courses on specific elements of LMI analysis

• Train the trainer sessions to ensure effective knowledge transfer

Up skilling of all relevant and appropriate staff

Provide ongoing support • Access to trained to LMI analysts • Technical support• Frequent engagement and review

Readily available support

Sustainable Support

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Beyond the labour market – work experience

“Only a minority of employers offer work placements and where they do they tend to be provided for those in education and for schoolchildren in particular....

“The majority of those who are currently engaged are motivated for altruistic or philanthropic reasons....

“It is encouraging, however, that a fifth or employers claim that one of the reasons they are not involved is because no-one has approach them. This does suggest that there will be a significant minority of employers who could be immediately open to the idea of offering work placements.”

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Beyond the labour market - student recruitment

.

Beyond the labour market - internal comms

.

Total City of London Camden Greenwich

Scheduled team meetings 596718 6046 6891 1398

81% 87% 85% 69%

Newsletters 382366 3955 3019 1009

52% 57% 37% 50%

Intranet 378256 4378 4249 764

51% 63% 52% 38%

Formal staff suggestion schemes 331189 2851 3193 796

45% 41% 39% 39%

Annual staff surveys 284882 2241 3079 683

39% 32% 38% 34%

One-to-one verbal communication 88991 465 1051 247

12% 7% 13% 12%

Internet 62717 677 618 50

8% 10% 8% 2%

Informal staff messages/feedback by forum/message book/diaries 55970 150 232 265

8% 2% 3% 13%

Informal/ad-hoc team meetings 14066 23 148 30

2% *% 2% 1%

Other 28441 101 131 11

4% 1% 2% 1%

Don't know 1767 193 41 0

*% 3% *% 0%

None of the above 34682 122 489 373

5% 2% 6% 18%

Beyond the labour market – student absence

Beyond the labour market – nursery care

1 National Statistics

What’s required...

• Providers have the right offer and incentives to get youth into sustainable work, progress through education or at work.

• Customers are informed and able to make the right decisions for themselves or their businesses in full knowledge of the options available and the opportunities that they will open up.

• Employers feel that that they have confidence in the system to provide them with the skilled people that they need; are aware of what the skills offer is; and are part of the process that will influence what is provided

• Providers operate in a competitive commercial setting and there is no longer an incentive for some providers to promote and provide courses that secure the highest take up and pay the highest rates rather than address the greatest need or deliver the most economic needs.

Where are we now...

• Fantastic examples of world class provision and employer-led training. • The freedoms and flexibilities introduced means that providers across

the system have been freed from regulations and bureaucracy to respond to employers and individuals needs (e.g. Employer Ownership of Skills fund)

But• Some courses have little employer backing, that fail to prepare the

learner for work or add value to the economy. • There is duplication of provision, poor performance of contracts, limited

oversight of how delivery meets the needs of employers and individuals• Significant disconnect between the skills we produce and the skills we

need.• Promise of greater local influence yet little has been delivered.

Future direction...

Embed employment and skills at the heart of all commissioning and delivery and demonstrate the impact of provision on sustained employment and career progression, by:

• Increasing the proportion of providers’ funding allocation that recognises success in this area;

• Extending the rate at which sustainable employment or career progression is be measured;

• Promoting the introduction of outcome incentive payments across specific sectors that are determined and agreed locally;

• Applying outcome incentive payments across all post-16 vocational learning; in concert with the rollout of Raised Participation Age.

Focus Key activities OutputReview current delivery design

•Review current provision and curricula against leading practice and LMI analysis•Obtain feedback on current delivery

A clear identification of strengths & weaknesses in current provision

Create the opportunity • Support to develop alternative delivery approaches and curricula

• Knowledge transfer – how to develop & grow employer relationships as required

A clear road map for achieving new approaches

Detail implementation • Establish project management & governance• Set clear timescales & action owners• Determine & agree key milestones

A fully implementable plan with clear action owners & timescales

Implement & Evaluate • Provide project management support• Establish the evaluation & success criteria for

monitoring• Revisit & refresh support

A seamless transition to the new delivery model.

Design and Implementation