shoreline school district trends & projections william l. (“les”) kendrick (consultant)...

Shoreline School District Trends & Projections

William L. (“Les”) Kendrick(Consultant)

October 16, 2006

October Headcount Data is Used in this Report for Estimating Trends and Projections

2 Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

Outline

• Enrollment Trends: Shoreline and the County

• Demographic drivers of enrollment

• District enrollment projections

• Projected Change by grade level and service area


District Enrollment TrendOctober Enrollment

P105: 1972-1990P223: 1991-2005

987310538

14674

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


Elementary Enrollment TrendShoreline District K-6

5230 5241 5415 5338 5285 5464 5421 52925072 5012 5024 4866 4773 4741 4620 4518

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Oct_91

Oct_92

Oct_93

Oct_

04

Oct_

95

Oct_

96

Oct_

97

Oct_

98

Oct_

99

Oct_

00

Oct_

01

Oct_

02

Oct_

03

Oct_

04

Oct_

05

Sept_

06


Middle School Enrollment TrendShoreline District (Grades 7-8)

1416

1551 1578 1590 1593 1593 1635 16481565 1579 1542 1550 1586 1589 1602 1565

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Oct_91

Oct_92

Oct_93

Oct_

04

Oct_

95

Oct_

96

Oct_

97

Oct_

98

Oct_

99

Oct_

00

Oct_

01

Oct_

02

Oct_

03

Oct_

04

Oct_

05

Sept_

06


High School Enrollment TrendShoreline District (Grades 9-12)

2853 2827 28763028 3102

33363482 3500 3576 3543 3533 3508 3520 3523

3651 3584

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Oct_91

Oct_92

Oct_93

Oct_

04

Oct_

95

Oct_

96

Oct_

97

Oct_

98

Oct_

99

Oct_

00

Oct_

01

Oct_

02

Oct_

03

Oct_

04

Oct_

05

Sept_

06


Shoreline’s Pattern is Somewhat Similar to Other Districts

• Demographic trends in births and migration are affecting all Districts in the county.

• Smaller birth cohorts have led to declines in elementary enrollments

• Net population gains from people moving in and out of the county have been smaller in recent years


King County Public Schools Enrollment Trend

221133225851

230170233675

237823242897

247527 249769 249587 249319 250399 249971 250791 252241 254,294

2.1% 1.9%1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 1.9%

0.9%

-0.1% -0.1%0.4%

-0.2%0.3% 0.5% 0.8%

150000

170000

190000

210000

230000

250000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

0.11

0.12

0.13

0.14

0.15

Enrollment Percent Change


King County Public Schools Elementary Enrollment Trend

126957128840

130023 130643132374

134470136281 136549

135229 134612133355

132372 132000 131668132807

1.5%0.9%

0.5%

1.3%1.6%

1.3%

0.2%

-1.0%-0.5%

-0.9% -0.8%-0.2% -0.3%

0.9%

100000

105000

110000

115000

120000

125000

130000

135000

140000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

Enrollment Percent Change


King County Districts: Change in Enrollment1991 to 1997

34323364

27742452

21171933

18501667

11831146

1039684

604561

523514

4804427

00

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Issaquah

Kent

Seattle

Federal Way

Northshore

Highline

Auburn

Tahoma

Lake Washington

Enumclaw

Shoreline

Mercer Island

Renton

Riverview

Snoqualmie Valley

Tukwila

Bellevue

Vashon Island

Skykomish

Technical College

Voc. Institute


King County Districts: Change in Enrollment1997-2003

2165958

838803773

562545

352220176

1150

-13-58-99

-129-407

-659-884-934

-1060

-4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Issaquah

Federal Way

Auburn

Kent

Renton

Tahoma

Snoqualmie Valley

Technical College

Bellevue

Tukwila

Mercer Island

Voc. Institute

Riverview

Skykomish

Northshore

Vashon Island

Enumclaw

Shoreline

Seattle

Highline

Lake Washington


King County K-12 Public School Enrollment Growth

26394

3264 3837

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1991-1997 1997-2003 2003-2005

More growth in the last 2 years than in the prior 6 years.


Puget Sound Public School Enrollment Net Change:

King, Kitsap, Pierce, Snohomish Combined

12427

10039

8860 8727

12618

9911

6517

1439 1189

4714

855

2397

376

3152

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000


Private School Enrollment King County K-12

2965630834 31614 32362 33042

34021 34837 35024 3449033188

4.00%

2.50% 2.40% 2.10%3.00% 2.40%

0.5% 0.30%0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Enrollment % Change

Note: 2003 Private school data from OSPI excludes some schools that are traditionally included thus skewing the trend. For this reason 2003 data is omitted from the chart.

Demographic Trends


King County Births, Population Gains from Migration and Shoreline Enrollment

Population Estimates from OFM

-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00032,00034,00036,000

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

Pop. Change Births (5 Years Prior) Enrollment

Births trending down

Births trending up


King County BirthsPercent of Cohort Enrolled in Shoreline 5 Years Later

3.46% 3.42%3.64%

3.02% 3.14%3.32% 3.25% 3.13%

2.79% 2.81% 2.82%2.61% 2.63%

2.84% 2.81%

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Births 19999 20499 21203 22384 22949 22796 23036 22326 21972 21817 21573 21646 22212 22007 22487

Pct of Cohort in Shoreline 3.46% 3.42% 3.64% 3.02% 3.14% 3.32% 3.25% 3.13% 2.79% 2.81% 2.82% 2.61% 2.63% 2.84% 2.81%

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000


Projected County Births and Shoreline’s Share of the Cohort

2.81% 2.79% 2.75% 2.75% 2.70% 2.65% 2.65% 2.64% 2.64% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60%

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Births 22487 21778 21863 22431 22874 22900 23189 23372 23557 23723 23657 23867 24032 24198 24367 24460

Pct of Cohort in Shoreline 2.81% 2.79% 2.75% 2.75% 2.70% 2.65% 2.65% 2.64% 2.64% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Projected Births


King County PopulationChart Also Shows the Population in the Shoreline Service area as a

Percent of the Total King County Population

3.60%

4.19%

1400000

1450000

1500000

1550000

1600000

1650000

1700000

1750000

1800000

1850000

3.30%

3.40%

3.50%

3.60%

3.70%

3.80%

3.90%

4.00%

4.10%

4.20%

4.30%

KC Pop (OFM) 155307415791831606135162432216424511659385167951617021401720098173703417583001774300177930017883001808300

Shoreline Pct of Pop. 4.19% 4.12% 4.06% 4.02% 3.99% 3.95% 3.91% 3.87% 3.83% 3.80% 3.76% 3.72% 3.67% 3.66% 3.60%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


King County Population ForecastBased on OFM Intermediate Series

Chart Also Shows the Projected Change in the Population in the Shoreline Service Area as a Percent of the Projected King County Population

3.57%

3.50%

3.42%

3.60%

1500000

1600000

1700000

1800000

1900000

2000000

2100000

3.00%

3.20%

3.40%

3.60%

3.80%

4.00%

KC Pop (OFM Projection) 1808300 1860359 1936594 2014734

Shoreline Pct of Pop. 3.60% 3.57% 3.50% 3.42%

2005 2010 2015 2020


Shoreline School DistrictPopulation Estimates & ProjectionsHigh Growth Population Projection

Estimates and Projections Based on:Data from OFM, PSRC, Census & the King County Growth Report

64815

68700

66430

6510066041

55000

57000

59000

61000

63000

65000

67000

69000

71000

Avg. House-hold Size = 2.51





New Home Trends in Shoreline(Data from the New Home Trends Database)

• Approximately 650 new construction housing units have been sold in the District in the past 5-7 years.

• About 500 of these units were in multi-family complexes (apartments, condos, townhomes)

• Of the approximately 500 multi-family units listed as sold in New Home Trends, approximately 300 were conversions of apartments to condos or townhomes (132 were recently converted in the Echo Lake service area)

• Development has been concentrated to the west of I-5, especially single-family home development.

Projections


Projecting the Future• Population in the Shoreline District likely to grow

between now and 2020.• The District population as a percentage of the

county population will continue to shrink.• Housing units are expected to increase but the

average household size will decline (generally indicates fewer children).

• County births are expected to be relatively stable between now and 2010 and are expected to increase between 2010 and 2020.

• Birth cohorts and the population trends are the best predictors of future enrollment.


Future Enrollment• District will enroll a smaller share of future birth cohorts.

– K enrollment was 3.46% of county births in 1991– K enrollment was 2.85% of county births in 2005– Percent will range between 2.8% and 2.6% between now and 2020

with a gradual decline over time.

• Share of King County K-12 growth will decline over time– 4.3% in 1991– 3.5% to 3.7% projected by 2020

• The Low, Medium and High forecasts differ in their assumptions regarding the District’s share of future K-12 population growth in King County.


King County K-12 Public School Enrollment Projection

272150

274092

245000

255000

265000

275000

285000

295000

2006 2010 2015 2020

Based on OFM Age 5-19 Population Projections Cohort Model


Shoreline School District Enrollment Projection

October Headcount

9000

9500

10000

10500

Low 9727 9629 9533 9389 9200 9143 9105 9101 9124 9220 9290 9324 9367 9398 9483

Medium 9727 9689 9652 9553 9392 9353 9331 9340 9376 9485 9568 9609 9654 9693 9749

High 9727 9772 9766 9662 9537 9581 9596 9640 9706 9850 9967 10029 10094 10151 10198

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Projected Change by Level2005-2010

(Low, Medium, and High Projection)

-100

-295 -278

17

-274-224

105

-258-183

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Elementary Middle High School

Low Medium High

Service Area Trends and Projections


Single Family Development Projects:1998-2005 (New Home Trends)


Shorewood/Einstein TrendsNet Enrollment Change Between Oct-97 and Oct-05

PSRC Census Estimates show a net gain of approximately 800 residents in these areas since the 2000 Census

64

208

-46

-174

-15-43 -65 -43

-200-150-100

-500

50100150200250


Shorecrest/Kellogg TrendsNet Enrollment Change Between Oct-97 and Oct-05

PSRC Census estimates show a gain of approximately 400 residents in these areas since the 2000 Census

-101

-159

-100

-3

-124

-75

-192-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0


Projected Enrollment Change by School Sept_06 to Oct_12

HeadcountFeedHi Level FeedJr School Sept_06 Oct_12 Change

Shorecrest 1 Kellogg Briarcrest 336 338 2

Shorecrest 1 Kellogg Brookside 456 522 66

Shorecrest 1 Kellogg Lake Forest Park 383 346 -37

Shorecrest 1 Kellogg North City 340 320 -20

Shorecrest 1 Kellogg Ridgecrest 297 286 -11

Shorecrest 2 Kellogg Kellogg 723 667 -56

Shorecrest 3 Kellogg Shorecrest 1490 1378 -112

Shorewood 1 Einstein Echo Lake 362 384 22

Shorewood 1 Einstein Highland Terrace 341 350 9

Shorewood 1 Einstein Meridian Park 542 541 -1

Shorewood 1 Einstein Parkwood 415 472 57

Shorewood 1 Einstein Sunset 397 410 13

Shorewood 1 Einstein Syre 483 552 69

Shorewood 2 Einstein Einstein 794 700 -94

Shorewood 3 Einstein Shorewood 1814 1550 -264


Summary• Enrollment is expected to continue to decline over

the next 5-7 years.• Enrollment should start to grow between 2010 and

2020 as births and population increase in the county (the natural cycle of K-12 enrollment).

• Middle and high school enrollments will show a declining pattern over the next 5-7 years.

• Elementary enrollment should be more stable in the next 5-7 years, though losses will likely continue through 2009.

shoreline school district trends & projections william l. (“les”) kendrick (consultant)...

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