SIDS and Climate Change Indicators

Soonil D. RughooputhFaculty of Science, University of Mauritius, Mauritius

Tel 230 454 1041 Ext 1481; Fax: 230 454 9642; sdr@uom.ac.mu

ABSTRACT

There is no doubt that the climate is changing. Climate change is also affecting our natural

world, society and economy. Our climate has been evolving continuously since centuries. But

the last two millennia have witnessed an unprecedented change in the climate. The clear message

from the scientific community is that this warming is due, at least in part, to the increasing

concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The global average temperature is

projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 oC over the period 1990-2100 with an associated increase in

the mean sea level. Such rapid rate of change will leave the ecosystems less time to adapt,

making them more vulnerable to the phenomenon of climate change. Small islands are particular

at risk. In this paper, we discuss on climate change impacts on different sectors of the economy

that are particularly of interest to small islands. In order to track these changes as they happen,

small islands are encouraged to gather together a set of indicators that are influenced by climate.

These indicators will be important to assess whether signs of change already emerging develop

into important trends that affects our daily lives. Within the next decade or so, the first things to

change may be subtle aspects of the behaviour of plants, animals and people. These indicators

cover climate such as temperature and rainfall but also include environmental and economic

pointers such as risk of flooding and droughts, frequency of cyclones, abundance of butterflies,

tourist population. The set of indicators will help to raise awareness of how our climate is

changing, the pace of change and how it is altering the fabric of our natural and man-made world

forever and it will instill a sense of urgency in responding to it.

Keywords:

Climate Change; Climate Indicators; Vulnerability; Small Islands

1. Introduction

Life on earth depends on the climate. Knowledge about climate can help us in many ways, suchas profitable crop growing, building comfortable houses, the best holidays, outdoor sportsactivities, healthy life or planning for the future. Moreover, precautionary measures can be takento reduce health impacts on man, such as thermal stress, sun exposure, asthma and other vectorand air borne diseases.

There is no doubt that the climate is changing. Evidence is gathering that man-made greenhousegas emissions are responsible for the changing earth's climate (IPCC, 2001). The strongwarming of the last 50 years cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone, but requiresthe inclusion of the effects of human emissions. Climate change will be threatening the worldenvironment more and more; sea level rise threatening the existence of low-lying small islandstates thereby putting millions of people at risk, temperature increases, drought and flooding willaffect people's health and way of life and cause the irreversible loss of many species of plantsand animals. In the context, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UnitedNations Environment Programme (UNEP) jointly established the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) in 1988. It deals with issues such as the extent to which humanactivities have influenced and will in the future influence the global climate, the impacts of achanged climate on ecological and socio-economic systems, and existing and projected technicaland policy capacity to address anthropogenic climate change.

It is true that our climate has been evolving continuously since centuries, but the last twomillennia have witnessed an unprecedented change in the climate due to the excessiveaccumulation of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere such as carbon dioxide (CO2),methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluocarbons (HFC), perfluocarbons (PFC) andsulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Except for CFCs the rest of the gases occur naturally (<1% of theatmosphere). These gases allow incoming solar radiation to pass through relatively unimpeded,but partially absorb and reemit outgoing infrared terrestrial radiation. This natural processincreases the average earth's temperature from -18 oC to 15 oC – vital for the existence of life onearth. However, anthropogenic activities such as energy generation from fossil fuels anddeforestation have been increasing the concentration of the greenhouse gases beyond theirnatural levels resulting an enhanced greenhouse effect. This has caused an increase in the earth'stemperature – global warming.

Over the last 140 years, the average global surface temperatures have increased by 0.6°C (Figure1) and an observed rise in sea level (10 - 20 cm) (Figure 2). The ten hottest years on recordhave all occurred within the last two decades. Current climate models predict that globaltemperatures will rise by a further 1.4 to 5.8° C by the end of the 21st century whilst the globalmean sea levels are predicted to rise by 9 to 88 cm by 2100 as a result of thermal expansion ofthe oceans, and the melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets [10-11-12]. It will also impact onman’s health, such as thermal stress, sun exposure, correlation with disease and asthma. Suchrapid rate of change will leave the ecosystems less time to adapt, making them more vulnerableto the phenomenon of climate change. Extreme weather events such as very intense tropicalcyclones, flash floods, severe drought, heat and cold waves are becoming more frequent aroundthe world [1-5]. Many small island states situated in the tropics, like Mauritius and Rodrigues

are always experiencing these phenomena [6-8]. It is predicted that changes in the climatepatterns will increase the frequency of these events thereby threatening the lives and propertiesof many people worldwide [1-5, 9].

Figure 1. Global temperature change, 1861-2000 [Source: IPCC, 2001]

Figure 2. Global average sea level rise (1990 - 2100) for the six SRES scenarios[Source: IPCC, 2001]

This paper discusses the use of indicators for climate change as useful tools – use varying fromscientific understanding of climate change to climate change impacts on different sectors. Itcalls for SIDS to start building these indicators for their own developmental purposes helpingscientists and policy-makers to design and implement rational response strategies to address theenvironmental, social and economic impacts of climate change, and prepare appropriatecontingency plans.

2. Assessing the Impacts of Climate ChangeAgriculture and tourism largely contribute to the economy of many small island states. Thesetwo industries are directly influenced by the state of the climate. For example, the slightestchange in the temperature can alter the flowering of plants, the growth and yield of sugarcane issensitive to precipitation and temperature, the tourists are easily influenced by the state ofweather prevailing over our region. The predictions of global climate change thus calls for theneed to develop appropriate mechanisms to assess the impacts of climate change on theeconomy, society and environment in order to inform the development of policy to adapt to suchchanges. In 1999, the United Kingdom Department of the Environment, Transport and theRegions (DETR) produced a set of 34 indicators (provided by the UK Environmental ChangeNetwork (ECN)) which can be used to monitor how the climate of the UK is changing (see Table1); the indicators are also available at www.nbu.ac.uk/1ccuk/ (DETR, 1999). The updated datarevealed the 10-year period 1993-2002 was the warmest on record in Central England, 0.7 °Cabove the 1961-1990 mean; the average number of hot days (≥20 °C) in 1993-2002 in centralEngland was 7.4, over twice the long-term average; in the last four years, the seasonaldistribution of precipitation, and the gradient from southeast to northwest Britain, have beenclose to the long-term average; warm January-March temperatures in recent years have beenreflected in lower gas consumption in this winter quarter; recent years have seen large increasesin (i) the number of Thames Barrier closures, (ii) cases of Lyme disease, (iii) proportion ofpotato crop irrigated, and (iv) areas of forage maize, but these are not wholly attributable toclimate change. Meanwhile, areas of vines have slightly decreased; yearly changes in the timingof natural events continue to reflect warmer temperatures. Wales (see Table 1), Scotland,Ireland, the Environment Agency, and the European Environment Agency also adopted climatechange indicators which not only included most of those in the UK 1999 list of 34 but alsoincluded new ones such as snow cover, sea temperature, gales and wind speed, fish stocks, andgrowing season length. For instance, Wales and EEA listed 60 and 49 candidate indicatorsrespectively, of which 22 and 18 have been respectively short-listed.

Whether or not a potential climate change indicator can be retained as such depends on itsfulfillment of the selection criteria of availability, sensitivity, policy relevance, public resonance,future availability and length and homogeneity of time series. The UK list, for instance, isselected on the following criteria being satisfied:

• Sensitive to climate - strong correlations with climate variables, which will cause long-term trends if the climate changes,

• Long time series exist of good quality,• Data are collected routinely and readily available at low cost,• Relevant and easy to understand by the public and policy makers,• If possible, representative of region or sector and related to ECN set of variables.

The set of indicators are reviewed from time to time to identify gaps and weaknesses in theexisting set of climate change indicators, particularly in terms of the quantity and quality of thedata available. New proposals adopted by others are considered along with a reappraisal toassess whether the original set of indicators was still appropriate; whether new indicators shouldbe devised; and whether indicators should be discontinued. On the basis of these, the current setof indicators is updated and refined, to better represent the country’s climate impacts. Futureareas of research may also be recommended.

Table 1: List of all indicators for UK and Wales

UK-34

• Air temperature in Central England

• Seasonality of precipitation

• Precipitation gradient across the UK

• Predominance of westerly weather

• Dry and wet soil conditions

• River flows in northwest and southeast

Britain

• Frequency of low and high river flows in

northwest and southeast Britain

• Groundwater storage in chalk in southeast

Britain

• Sea level rise

• Risk of tidal flooding in London

• Atmospheric ozone levels in summer in

rural England

• Domestic property insurance claims

• Supply of gas to households

• Domestic holiday tourism

• Scottish skiing industry

• Number of outdoor fires

• Incidence of lyme disease in humans

• Seasonal pattern of human mortality

• Use of irrigation water for agriculture

• Proportion of potato crop that is irrigated

• Potato yields

• Warm-weather crops: grapes

• Warm weather crops: forage maize

• Late summer grass production

• Date of leaf emergence on trees in spring

• Health of beech trees in Britain

• Dates of insect appearance and activity

• Insect abundance

• Arrival date of the swallow

• Egg-laying dates of birds

• Small bird population changes

• Marine plankton

• Upstream Movement of Salmon

• Ice on Lake Windermere

Wales-22

• Air temperature

• Rainfall

• Outdoor fires

• Human mortality

• Leafing dates

• Timing of peak insect abundance

• Insect abundance

• Bird migration timing

• Egg laying time

• Sea level

• Upland and lowland river flows

• North Atlantic Oscillation

• Snow cover

• Westerly winds,

• gale index

• Sea temperature

• Flowering of clover varieties

• Ear emergence –on ryegrass

• Greenness –from NDVI analysis of satellite

images

• Flowering time of native flora

• Timing of frogspawn

• Gulf Stream index

3. SIDS and Climate ChangeThe efforts on producing climate change indicators should be extended to all countries in theworld, in particular, the SIDS on account of their vulnerability. The poorest countries are likelyto be the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. 60% of the additional 80 millionpeople projected to be at risk of flooding are expected to be in Southern Asia (Pakistan, India, SriLanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar) and 20% in South East Asia (from Thailand to Vietnam,including Indonesia and the Philippines). Africa, the Middle East, India and many SIDS areexpected to experience significant reductions in cereal yields. An additional 290 million peoplecould be exposed worldwide to malaria by the 2080s. In some areas, water resources fordrinking and irrigation will be affected by reduced rainfall or as ground water in coastal zonessuffers from salination as sea levels rise. People's lives may be put at risk from an increasedfrequency of droughts and flooding. An additional three billion people could suffer increasedwater stress by 2080. By the 2070s, large parts of northern Brazil and central southern Africacould lose their tropical forests because of reduced rainfall and increased temperatures. If thishappens, global vegetation which currently absorbs carbon dioxide at the rate of some 2-3gigatonnes of carbon (GtC) per year will become a carbon source generating about 2 GtC peryear by the 2070s and further adding to carbon dioxide build up in the atmosphere (currentglobal man-made emissions are about 6-7 GtC per year).

SIDS have all the environmental problems and challenges of the coastal zone in a limited landarea. SIDS must communicate to its population by using SIDS sites and data. Commonindicators (a set of say 15-20) must be selected and examined for their robustness; proposedindicators given in Table 2. This exercise will also unearth some good SIDS data on some otheraspects.

Table 2: Proposed Common Indicators for SIDS

• Temperature trends (Land, Sea, Soil -Annual Means and Extremes)

• Precipitation trends• Predominance of westerly weather (Figure

3)• Storms (frequency, intensity and duration)• Dry and wet soil conditions• River flows• Frequency of low and high river flows• Groundwater storage• Risk of tidal flooding• Domestic property insurance claims• Supply of electricity/gas to households• Tourist Flux• Number of outdoor fires• Incidence of food poisoning• Seasonal pattern of human mortality• Water Use (irrigation water for agriculture

as well as household water use)• Proportion of economic crop that is irrigated• Economic crop yields (e.g. sugar cane)

• Warm-weather crops: grapes• Sale of air conditioners• Sales of beer and soft drinks• Grass production• Date of leaf emergence on specific trees in

spring• Time of flowering of plants (e.g. sugar cane,

flamboyant)• Health of specific trees (cypress)• Dates of insect appearance and activity• Insect abundance• Arrival date of certain birds• Egg-laying dates of birds• Small bird population changes• Abundance of marine species including

plankton and algal blooms• Date of Frog spawning• Ice on high mountains and lakes• Bat activity• Water quality• Atmospheric ozone

Figure 3: Predominance of westerly weather: the North Atlantic Oscillation IndexFor the indicator “Predominance of westerly weather”, some SIDS can opt for the North Atlantic Oscillation, a largescale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low. The corresponding index varies

from year to year, but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years.

4. Case of Mauritius: A Glance at some potential IndicatorsJust as in other parts of the world, the climate in the South West Indian Ocean is also changing.Mauritius and the adjoining islands are therefore at risk. Below we illustrate a few potentialclimate change indicators for Mauritius which are under study for possible use to monitor howthe climate in Mauritius is changing, how it maybe affecting aspects of our lives and naturalenvironment and how it impacts on our economy [10-12]. Around 50 indicators will be studied.Statistical techniques will be used to test the relevance of these indicators using establishedcriteria. The selected indicators will be eventually be published on the Mauritius MeteorologicalServices website with fly-in data as the database grows. The outcome from this study will be ofgreat use to the policymakers on agriculture, tourism and other weather related industry.

Annual Mean Air TemperatureAir temperature is obviously one of the most fundamental indicators of climate. Records ofmeasured surface air temperatures in Mauritius extend back to 1876. The data are qualitycontrolled and updated monthly by the Mauritius Meteorological Services. Analysis oftemperature records for the Royal Alfred Observatory (Figure 4) shows an upward trend akin toglobal estimates. Under the doubled scenario of the GCM, Mauritius will experience anincrease of temperature by 2.2 oC (January) to 2.7 oC (August).

22

22.5

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Figure 4: Mean yearly values of Air Temperature 1876-2003, Royal Alfred Observatory[Source, MMS]

Trends of Precipitation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Figure 5: Mean Rainfall over Mauritius 1960-1989

The selection of gauges contributing to this series has been carefully scrutinised over time toensure a homogenous precipitation series. Monthly precipitation for Mauritius is averaged andquality controlled for 22 representative meteorological stations. Precipitation series forMauritius extends from 1876 to the present and exists as a series of precipitation totalsrepresentative of the mean areal precipitation over Mauritius (Figure 5). Mauritius receives ananuaal rainfall of around 2000 mm whilst the estimated mean annual evaporation is around 1700mm ([Padya, 1989]. Nine reservoirs intercept part of this water. Ground water is alsoextensively exploited. Based on the GCM model, it is expected that rainfall would generallyincrease as a consequence of an increase of CO2 especially in months of May (1.61 times) andSeptember (1.24 times with little changes in January and July.

Tropical cyclonesTropical cyclones - including hurricanes and typhoons – with their high gusts and, most of times,abundant rain, have been and continue to be extremely disruptive events for inhabitants in theglobal tropics and subtropics. The warm tropical oceans of the southern hemisphere summermonths are the breeding grounds for their development. Knowledge of how and why thecharacteristics of these coupled ocean-atmospheric systems have changed in the past is a topic ofmuch interest. With a more complete understanding, we will be better prepared to answer thequestion: "How will tropical cyclone activity change in future years?". Figure 6 shows thenumber of tropical /depressions cyclones in the South West Indian Ocean basin; with an annualaverage of 10 of these developing into full blown tropical cyclones each year (see Figure 7 fortrack positions). Some storms may grow to a diameter of more than 600 km with gusts of theorder of 270 km/h persisting for several hours. Statistically, cyclones are more frequent in themonths of January and February. It has been shown that, during the last 3 decades, the number ofintense tropical cyclones (central pressure below 945 hPa) in the south-west Indian Ocean has anincreasing tendency (Hoarau, K., 1999). This is especially the case of the extreme systems(pressure below 920 hPa) for which a stronger increase in frequency occurred over the period1990-99. It is noted that the ENSO which occurred in the 1980s were accompanied by nointense cyclones (Hoarau, K., 1999). The decade 1990-99 constitutes the one for which thegreatest number of intense cyclones has been observed since the data exists.

0

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59-6061-6263-6465-6667-6869-7071-7273-7475-7677-7879-8081-8283-8485-8687-8889-9091-9293-9495-96

Year

Number TD

TC

Figure 6: Storm Frequency in the SW Indian Ocean (1959 – 1996)TD represents Tropical Depressions; TC represents Tropical Cyclones

Figure 7: Best Track Positions of Tropical Cyclones in theSW Indian Ocean for all years 1972 to 2001

[Source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center]

ThunderstormsSmall-scale weather phenomena such as severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hailstorms,waterspouts and downpours, is of common occurrence in Mauritius. They are normally short-lives and very localised. Severe thunderstorms are generated by the highly unstable atmosphericconditions through a combination of warm moist low-level air and relatively cold dry air in theatmosphere. Severe thunderstorms can be very dangerous to aircrafts in particular the associatedstrong winds and flash floods. Figure 8 below shows the frequency of thunderstorm occurrencein Mauritius over the period 1971 to 2004.

Figure 8: Thunderstorm Frequency heard in Mauritius (1971 – 2004)[Source, MMS]

20-24

15-19 11-14

9-10 7-8

5-6 3-4

1-2 0

Sea Level Rise

100

120

140

160

180

200

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Figure 9: Mean Seal Level (cm) above tide staff zero for Port Louis (1987-2002)[Source: MMS]

Sea level relative to the land (known as the revised local reference) is recorded at Port Louis(Trou Fanfaron) for Mean Sea Level since August 1986 (Figure 9). Based on a sea level datumcalculated in 1968 by HMS Owen, it has been estimated that sea level rise at a rate of 1.2 mm/yr(comparable to global mean sea level increase of 1.0-2.0 mm per year during this century)(Ragoonaden, 1997). It is predicted to rise above 1995 levels by 23 cm by the 2050s and 42 cmby the 2090s as a result of further thermal expansion and melting of land ice. Sea level rise willthreaten the existence of some small island states and put millions of people at risk. The impactsof sea level rise can be either a permanent feature resulting in land loss due to an increase inmean sea level and/or a transient one so that coastal areas could face a significantly increasedrisk of flooding, inundation and erosion with or without more frequent and severe storm surges.In both cases, however, the coastal ecosystems (coral reefs, mangroves, coastal wetlands, riverdeltas, etc) and marine resources will be heavily impacted, especially when destructive effectssuch as tropical cyclones, anthropogenic damages, tsunamis, and declining environmental qualityare superimposed on the sea level rise. Changes in these ecosystems will have a negative impacton tourism, freshwater supplies, fisheries and biodiversity.

This indicator permits the computation of the horizontal loss of land based on various verticalincreases in sea level and enable the quantification of the economic impacts of this loss; theamounts of residential, commercial, industrial, and agriculture lands subject to permanent loss.Social and environmental impacts of these losses depend on the adaptation strategyimplemented. The degree of permanent losses due to an increase in mean sea level depends onthe topography of the island and reef protection (if present). For Mauritius, it is not sosignificant because of its relatively high relief and its physical reef barrier. However climatechange could increase those impacts in a multitude of ways. If the sea level rises faster than thenthe coral reefs can grow, then the reefs will have less of an attenuating effect on wave energy.Higher sea surface temperatures could also cause an increased incidence of coral bleachingevents that would similarly reduce the reef’s protective capabilities. It is also possible thatclimate change could cause an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe storms in thearea. While the above impacts area still uncertain, it is indisputable that an increase in mean sealevel will give storm surges a higher reach on the shores of Mauritius putting more property atrisk to storm damages. The impacts of storm surge flooding can be quantified (the length of

coastal line expected to be at risk as well as the value of the damages expected) as a result ofpredicted sea level elevations. This indicator can also be used to study waves.

A significant percentage (~ 45%) of the coastline of Mauritius has a built-up frontage, consistingmainly of coastal roads, hotels, industries, coastal conurbations (around 62% of the islandpopulation) and bungalows. The remaining is distributed as under agriculture and vegetation(~31%), public beaches (~8%) and 16% cliff and/or grazing. Several stretches of coastline areespecially vulnerable to a combination of increase in sea level and sea surge, humaninterventions and natural variability, especially those around South East coasts and, to a lesserextent, areas of West coasts. Preliminary studies indicate that protecting the coastline iseconomical, but local areas may be best left to the sea [Kelly et al, 2004]. Any sudden changesin sea surges, overtopping and breaching defences, will be especially expensive. Rising sealevels may be especially threatening to coastal aquifers (causing saline intrusion) and coastalresorts.

Economic CropsSugar cane has been the most valuable crop in Mauritius for many decades; at one time,Mauritius being a monocrop economy. Sugar cane, a tropical plant grown in warm countries, isvery sensitive to climate variations; any global climate change will definitely impact on sugarproduction and hence entail serious socio-economic responses. The yield of sugar cane is notclosely related to any single weather variable. Climatic parameters like solar radiation,temperature, wind, and rainfall have a profound influence on yield and quality. Low caneproductivity of the lowlands has been attributed to lack of available moisture whilecomparatively lower temperatures and radiation are the limiting factors uplands. (Nayamuth,1999) Sugar cane ripening is dependent upon the same climatic factors during this phase ofdevelopment as well as prior to the latter. It is imperative to understand the plant’s response tothe environment to achieve maximum productivity. Sugar cane yields are clearly adverselyaffected by cyclones, excessive rain, summer droughts, particularly if they are not irrigated. Thespecific indicator is the annual average yield (in tons per hectare) of sugar cane in Mauritius(Figure 10); other potential indicators are the sugar yield and the cane elongation - Figure 11 –the barometer for estimating cane yield for the last 4 decades). Quantitative studies using fourGCM scenarios reveal approximately 30% to 56% decrease in the yield (NCC, 1998). Therecoverable sucrose content will be lower with increase in temperature. Higher frequencies ofclimate extremes such as cyclone, droughts and prolonged rainfall will also have an uncertain,more risky, impact on sugar production (Figure 12].

0

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60

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100

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0

2

4

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12

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Figure 10: Island averages of cane yield (A) and commercial sugar (B) (t/ha) [1970-2003][Source: MSIRI annual reports]

20

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0 50 100 150 200 250

Figure 11: Cane Elongation (1984-2004)[Source: PROSI Magazine]

A

B

Figure 12: Deviations of sugarcane yields from their regional means (1970 – 1993)[Rughooputh, 1997]

HealthClimate also influences the biology and health of the human populations directly since humanphysiological adaptive activities such as sweating and the degree of comfort, and indirectly, onthe environment (food and diseases). Below we show, in Figure 13, how the human mortality isdirectly affected by climate- a higher incidence of deaths in winter than in summer.

0.00000

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0.00020

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0.00090

0.00100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Figure 13: Crude Death Rate in Mauritius (1976-2001) [Source: CSO, Mauritius]

5. Conclusions

The use of indicators for climate change is increasingly become very important for severalreasons: for scientific understanding of climate change, to study the impacts on different sectors,to predict the impacts and for scenario building, to assess the sensitiveness of different economicsectors to climate change, for new opportunities that it may present. The SIDS, being vulnerableto climate change as opposed to the most other countries, have to build these indicators for theirown developmental purposes. It is expected that the climate change indicators will helpscientists and SIDS policy-makers for their future plans. Based on precautionary and anticipatoryapproaches, SIDS should design and implement rational response strategies to address theenvironmental, social and economic impacts of climate change, and prepare appropriatecontingency plans.

AcknowledgementsIt is a pleasure to thank the Mauritius Meteorological Services for their support and Mr RBooneady for helping in retrieving some data presented. The author wishes to thank theUniversity of Mauritius for providing the necessary facilities for this work.

References:

Cheeroo-Nayamuth, B. F., and Nayamuth, A. R. (1999). Vulnerability and adaptation of thesugar cane crop to climate change in Mauritius. Réduit: Mauritius Sugar Industry ResearchInstitute; Vacoas: National Climate Committee. 40 p.: 23 figs, 12 tbls.

CSO Central Stastical Office, Mauritius

DETR, 1999. Indicators of Climate Change in the UK, published by DETR (Defra); alsoavailable at www.nbu.ac.uk/1ccuk/

Hoarau, K. 1999.La Frequence Des Cyclones Tropicaux Intenses Dans Le Sud-Ouest DeL'ocean Indien (1970-1999), Publications de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie,Vol. 12, 1999, 405-413

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001: Climate Change SynthesisReport, World Meteorological Organisation/ United Nations Environment Programme

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is the U. S. Department of Defense agencyresponsible for issuing tropical cyclone warnings for the Pacific and Indian Oceans. ],http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/climostats/Statclimo.html

Kelly K and Rughooputh, S.D.D. V., 2004, unpublished results

MMS Mauritius Meteorological Services, Mauritius

Padya, B.M., 1989: Weather and Climate of Mauritius, Mahatma Gandhi Institute.

Ragoonaden, S. (1997). Impact of sea-level rise on Mauritius. Journal of Coastal Research,Special Issue, 24, 206-223.

Rughooputh, S.D.D.V., 1997, Climate Change And Agriculture: MicroclimaticConsiderations, In Proceedings Of The 2nd Annual Meeting Of Agricultural Scientists OfMauritius, Mauritius, 73-82