Simcoe County District School Board

Pupil Accommodation Review 2010:03 Alliston Elementary Schools

Demographics, Enrolment and Projections

April 26, 2011

• Ontario’s population is projecting healthy growth over the next 27 years.

• Net migration is projected to account for 68 per cent of all population growth

• The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to more thandouble

• The children’s (0-4) share of population is projected to decline until 2015, rise slightly over the 2015–2026 period as the baby boom echo generation have children and then resume declining until 2036.

• The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to grow from 9.1 million in 2009 to 10.8 million by 2036.

• The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, with its population increasing by 3.0 million by 2036.

• Total fertility rate in Ontario reached its lowest level ever recorded in 2002, at 1.48 children per woman. Since then it has increased to 1.57 in 2007 (latest available). It is believed over the long term values below the replacement level (2.1) are likely.

Ontario Demographic Trends 2009-2036

Source: Ministry of Finance Spring 2010

• Between 1996 and 2006, New Tecumseth’s population has grown from 22,902 to 28,800

• 2010 population is estimated at 30,400 with a 2031 population allocation of 56,000

• Between 1991 and 2006, population growth driven mainly by intra-provincial migration

• Comprised largely of young families (younger adults (20-44) and youth (0-19))

• Empty-nesters and seniors also experienced an increase over this time period

• 55+ will see the largest growth rate

Population and Age Characteristics

Population, Age & Household Characteristics

Source: Statistics Canada, SCDSB

Note: Dissemination areas and attendance areas do not entirely align, therefore figures are approximations.

Population by Age Group

Total Pop. 0-4 5-9 10-14 55+ Total Pop. 0-4 5-9 10-14 55+

Alliston Union PS 4,675 280 440 430 925 3,480 195 210 260 835

Ernest Cumberland ES 4,915 365 305 395 815 6,980 440 475 600 1,395

Total 9,590 645 745 825 1,740 10,460 635 685 860 2,230

Area2001 2006

Persons Per Household

1 2 3 4-5 6 1 2 3 4-5 6

Alliston Union PS 525 525 290 445 55 395 405 220 310 50

Ernest Cumberland ES 260 490 300 550 50 480 725 460 710 70

Total 785 1,015 590 995 105 875 1,130 680 1,020 120

2001 2006Area

Number of Children at Home

Under 6 6-14 15-17 Under 6 6-14 15-17

Alliston Union PS 365 640 200 220 410 195

Ernest Cumberland ES 405 830 215 560 960 370

Total 770 1,470 415 780 1,370 565

2006Area

2001

Household Characteristics – SCDSB Student Counts

Students Counts by Geography

2001 2006 2010

Alliston Union PS 684 622 454

Ernest Cumberland ES 470 514 696

Total 1,154 1,136 1,150

Area

• Persons Per Unit (PPU)• Low Density – 2.55• Medium Density – 2.42• High Density 1.65

• Average PPU is expected to decline in the short to medium term and then level out

• PPU decline driven by aging population which increase single occupancy households

• Newer homes typically have higher PPU then older homes

• Housing occupancy levels tend to increase in the short term (1-10 years) as new home buyers from families

• A gradual decline follows as children age and leave home

• Stabilization then occurs as older homes are regenerated by new families

• The overall decline in PPU will require greater housing construction to maintain constant growth levels

• Pupil Yields represent the average number of students from each home

• Yields vary depending on characteristics of the unit

Age

• New units generally contain younger families with elementary students

• Established units generally contain older families with secondary students

• Older units generally contain a mix of younger students (rejuvenated units) and secondary students with low yields

Price

• Starter priced homes generally yield elementary

• Middle priced homes generally yield a mix

• Higher priced homes generally yield secondary or no students

Density (High to Low Yields)

• Single family, semi detached

• Townhouses, walk up apartments

• Apartments

• Condominium

• Retirement, seasonal

Pupil Yields

Pupil Yields

Pupil Yields

Elementary Secondary

1988 1998 2003 2008 1988 1998 2003 2008

Adjala-Tosorontio 0.35 0.41 0.1 0.2352 NA 0.19 0.18 0.0897

Barrie 0.32 0.31 0.21 0.0994 NA 0.14 0.13 0.0256

Bradford West Gwillimbury 0.38 0.32 0.14 0.1469 NA 0.14 0.09 0.0579

Clearview 0.31 0.38 0.22 0.2562 NA 0.17 0.07 0.062

Collingwood 0.32 0.38 0.05 0.1148 NA 0.17 0.02 0.0488

Essa 0.38 0.31 0.2 0.2095 NA 0.13 0.13 0.0605

Innisfil 0.29 0.31 0.2 0.2057 NA 0.14 0.15 0.0703

Midland 0.34 0.28 0.05 0.0526 NA 0.13 0.12 0.0338

New Tecumseth 0.38 0.3 0.12 0.1237 NA 0.13 0.08 0.0426

Orillia 0.29 0.27 0.12 0.1849 NA 0.12 0.14 0.038

Oro-Medonte 0.36 0.37 0.1 0.1989 NA 0.17 0.11 0.0449

Penetanguishene 0.27 0.19 0.2 0.0746 NA 0.08 0.1 0.0282

Ramara 0.32 0.37 0.08 0.1301 NA 0.16 0.02 0.0458

Severn 0.31 0.39 0.05 0.1946 NA 0.16 0.07 0.0984

Springwater 0.34 0.36 0.18 0.2703 NA 0.16 0.04 0.08

Tay 0.3 0.32 0.08 0.0966 NA 0.15 0.03 0.0397

Tiny 0.28 0.24 0.04 0.0812 NA 0.11 0.03 0.0241

Wasaga Beach 0.27 0.25 0.11 0.1319 NA 0.11 0.04 0.0325

County Average 0.32 0.32 0.13 0.1533 NA 0.14 0.09 0.0492Note: Yields are a weighted factor between dif ferent unit types and tenure

Source: Watson & Associates – SCDSB EDC Background Study, October 2008

Localized Pupil Yields by Unit Type

Source: Watson & Associates – SCDSB EDC Background Study, October 2008

Unit Type Elementary Yield

Low Density 0.1496

Medium Density 0.1746

High Density 0.0228

Seasonal 0

Adult 0.0231

Total 0.1237

Based on 1-15 year Cycle

Pupil Yield Cycle

Historical Growth

• From 2000 to 2005 approximately 1,100 building permits issued inthe Town.

• From 2006 to 2010 approximately 1,080 building permits issued inthe Town.

YearBuilding

Permits

Alliston

Union PS

Ernest

Cumberland

ES

Total

2000 186 760 411 1,171

2001 104 745 423 1,167

2002 183 733 418 1,151

2003 215 731 467 1,198

2004 200 724 471 1,195

2005 224 696 453 1,149

2006 358 681 488 1,169

2007 173 651 533 1,184

2008 346 608 592 1,200

2009 126 560 620 1,180

2010 81 535 661 1,196

Source: Committee of the Whole Report PD-2011-02 & EDC background study (CN Watson)

Majority of permits issued from 2006-2010 were in the Alliston settlement area Report PD-2011-02

Student Population

Growth – Alliston Residential Development

Source: Town of New Tecumseth

Growth – New Tecumseth Residential Development

Source: Town of New Tecumseth

Growth

• 7,202 units in remaining subdivision units• 2,210 Alliston

• 2,827 Non-Urban

• A total of 9,840 units would be required to be built by 2031 to meet Growth Plan targets (5,904 Greenfield and 3,936 in Built Boundary)

• Timing of when targets will be met is unknown and influenced by a number of factors• Servicing

• Demand

• Policy and Urban Area Delineation

• Economic Condition

• Stage of Approval Process

Projection Methodology

• Survival Cohort Method• Compares number of students in a grade to the number of students in the

previous grade in the previous year (Retention Rates)

• Completed for each grade for over a historical period

• Applicable for areas that have relatively stable increasing or decreasing trends

• Retention Rates take into account students who have come from new housing

• Confirmation of Trends• Census data

• Pupil yield analysis

• MPAC data

• Comparisons with other districts

• Kindergarten Students• Census

• Historical Review

• MPAC Analysis

Historic and Current

Enrolment

Core Enrolment

Holding Enrolment

District Program

EnrolmentCalculate Historic

Retention Rates

Apply Average

Retention Rates to

Existing Enrolment

Identify Anomalies

& Confirm Trends

Base Projection By

School

•Examples of anomalies

include large families moving

into schools with small

populations, an inordinate

increase or decrease in a

certain grade in a certain year

not explained by growth, the

addition or removal of special

programs.

•Trends reviewed include, but

are not limited to, kindergarten

enrolment, district program

participation, secondary

school feeders, secondary

student attrition, grade 11-12

retention, grade 12 returnees.

Enrolment Projection Methodology – Existing Community (Includes communities with

consistent growth)

Projection Methodology

Enrolment Projection Methodology – Existing Community with New Development (Large

Scale)

Projection Methodology

Historic and Current

Enrolment

Core Enrolment

Holding Enrolment

District Program

Enrolment

Calculate Historic

Retention Rates

Apply Average

Retention Rates to

Existing Enrolment

Identify Anomalies &

Confirm Trends

Base 10 Year

Projection By School

New Development

Determine Number

of Units Beyond

Current Rate of

Growth

Determine Timing of

Unit Construction

Apply Pupil Yield to

Units

New Community

Projection

Base Projection By

School

Including Growth

Projections

Enrolment Projection Methodology

JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SE Total FTE

2005 35 27 36 35 38 40 41 47 39 41 16 391.5 360.5

2006 26 1.357 48 1.241 34 1.169 42 1.043 36 0.907 34 0.813 33 0.852 35 1.032 48 0.974 38 14 385.5 348.8

2007 33 1.250 33 1.147 55 1.075 36 1.120 47 1.153 42 1.000 34 1.031 34 1.232 43 1.042 50 24 428.0 395.3

2008 30 1.030 34 0.908 30 0.991 54 0.931 34 0.935 44 0.807 34 0.985 34 1.075 36 1.000 43 26 395.5 363.5

2009 32 1.100 33 1.029 35 1.169 35 0.991 54 0.896 30 0.977 43 1.060 36 1.104 37 1.139 41 17 390.5 358.0

2010 31 1.000 32 1.000 33 0.914 32 1.014 35 0.953 51 0.767 23 1.059 45 0.986 35 1.027 38 21 376.0 344.5

1.043 1.015 0.993 0.995 0.923 0.989 1.035 1.049 1.036

2011 31 1.043 32 1.015 32 0.993 33 0.983 31 0.927 32 0.989 50 1.051 24 1.054 47 1.049 37 21 372.2 340.5

2012 31 1.043 32 1.015 33 0.973 32 0.983 32 0.927 29 0.985 32 1.048 53 1.054 25 1.050 50 21 370.2 338.5

2013 31 1.046 32 1.015 33 0.973 32 0.993 31 0.925 30 0.985 29 1.045 33 1.049 55 1.060 27 21 354.9 323.1

2014 31 1.035 32 1.012 33 0.969 32 0.994 32 0.931 29 0.987 29 1.048 30 1.038 35 1.045 58 21 361.7 330.1

2015 31 1.042 32 1.014 33 0.980 32 0.989 31 0.926 29 0.987 29 1.047 31 1.049 32 1.048 36 21 337.3 305.7

2016 31 1.042 32 1.014 33 0.978 32 0.988 32 0.927 29 0.986 29 1.046 30 1.049 32 1.050 33 21 334.4 302.7

2017 31 1.042 32 1.014 33 0.975 32 0.989 31 0.927 29 0.986 29 1.047 30 1.048 32 1.051 34 21 334.6 302.9

2018 31 1.042 32 1.014 33 0.975 32 0.991 32 0.927 29 0.986 29 1.047 30 1.047 32 1.051 33 21 333.9 302.3

2019 31 1.041 32 1.013 33 0.975 32 0.990 32 0.928 29 0.986 29 1.047 30 1.046 32 1.049 33 21 333.9 302.3

2020 31 1.042 32 1.014 33 0.977 32 0.990 32 0.927 29 0.986 29 1.047 30 1.048 32 1.050 33 21 333.9 302.3

Flat line JK enrolment Retention rate for movement of Flat line SE

students from grade to grade Enrolment

Discounted retention rate due to Retention rate average Total bodies and

anomaly of 5 previous years Full Time Equilivant

Existing grade enrolment times 5 year

retention average results in projected

grade enrolment for next year

• Historical retentions applied that blend impact of existing and new units

• Base projections assume location of specialized programs remain constant

• Base projections assume attendance areas remain constant

• Retentions assume growth will occur at “relatively” consistent rate

• Projections change as new information becomes available

Projection Assumptions

Alliston Union PS Projections

Year JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SE Total FTE

2005 40 1.160 59 0.999 57 0.950 57 1.010 61 1.040 76 1.113 75 1.028 73 1.004 88 0.955 96 15 695.50 646.00

2006 51 1.200 48 0.975 58 1.053 60 1.080 61 1.025 63 1.092 83 0.980 73 1.097 80 1.006 89 17 681.00 631.50

2007 43 1.088 56 0.938 45 0.991 57 1.042 63 1.066 65 1.200 75 0.946 79 1.034 76 0.962 77 17 650.50 601.25

2008 42 1.047 45 0.883 49 1.000 45 0.912 52 0.920 58 1.131 74 1.007 76 1.013 80 1.079 82 8 607.50 564.25

2009 40 0.964 40 1.033 47 0.857 42 0.989 45 0.942 49 1.217 70 0.932 69 0.960 73 1.006 80 7 560.00 520.00

2010 39 1.125 45 1.000 40 0.946 44 0.952 40 1.011 45 1.265 62 0.943 66 1.080 74 0.993 72 8 535.00 493.00

1.056 0.971 0.966 0.997 1.001 1.228 0.973 1.031 1.000

2011 35 1.056 41 0.967 43 0.969 39 0.995 44 0.994 40 1.228 55 0.963 60 1.036 68 1.008 75 8 507.91 469.82

2012 35 1.049 37 0.965 40 0.955 42 0.981 38 0.989 43 1.234 49 0.961 53 1.026 61 1.008 69 8 474.70 438.84

2013 35 1.050 37 0.970 36 0.949 38 0.971 40 0.976 37 1.217 53 0.963 47 1.024 54 1.016 62 8 447.14 411.27

2014 35 1.067 37 0.984 36 0.940 33 0.981 37 0.986 40 1.232 46 0.956 50 1.026 49 1.005 55 8 426.06 389.88

2015 35 1.056 37 0.976 36 0.954 35 0.980 33 0.993 37 1.234 49 0.960 44 1.037 52 1.005 49 8 414.47 378.49

2016 35 1.056 37 0.972 36 0.956 35 0.984 34 0.990 32 1.229 45 0.962 47 1.030 45 1.007 53 8 407.39 371.41

2017 35 1.056 37 0.972 36 0.954 34 0.982 34 0.988 34 1.229 40 0.961 43 1.030 49 1.008 46 8 395.44 359.47

2018 35 1.057 37 0.973 36 0.951 34 0.980 34 0.987 34 1.229 41 0.960 38 1.029 45 1.008 49 8 390.76 354.76

2019 35 1.058 37 0.975 36 0.951 34 0.980 33 0.986 33 1.228 41 0.960 40 1.030 39 1.008 45 8 382.48 346.46

2020 35 1.056 37 0.976 36 0.951 34 0.981 34 0.988 33 1.230 41 0.960 40 1.030 41 1.007 40 8 378.19 342.20

2021 35 1.057 37 0.974 36 0.953 34 0.981 34 0.989 33 1.230 41 0.961 39 1.031 41 1.007 41 8 379.27 343.28

Alliston Union PS Enrolment History

Alliston Union PS Enrolment History

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Alliston Union PS Grade Distribution

Alliston Union PS 2010-11 Grade Distribution

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Enrolm

ent

Alliston Union PS JK History

Alliston Union PS JK History

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

JK Enrolm

ent

Ernest Cumberland ES Projections

Year JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SE Total FTE

2005 31 1.159 48 1.009 55 0.988 41 1.061 53 0.922 42 0.989 47 0.938 45 1.000 35 0.940 40 18 453.00 413.75

2006 50 1.113 35 1.137 54 0.918 51 1.098 45 1.067 56 1.036 43 1.043 49 1.056 48 1.057 37 22 487.50 445.50

2007 58 1.081 54 1.203 42 1.074 58 1.050 53 1.167 53 0.920 52 1.070 46 1.071 53 1.053 50 16 532.50 476.75

2008 71 1.155 67 1.037 56 1.084 45 1.181 69 1.075 57 1.029 54 1.078 56 1.065 49 1.076 57 13 592.00 523.00

2009 70 1.077 77 0.963 65 1.036 58 0.911 41 0.993 68 0.982 56 1.063 62 1.081 60 1.102 54 12 620.00 547.00

2010 68 1.050 73 1.020 78 1.101 71 1.096 63 1.073 44 0.985 67 1.107 62 1.041 64 1.000 60 11 661.00 590.50

1.095 1.007 1.065 0.980 1.052 0.990 1.063 1.054 1.046

2011 65 1.092 74 1.007 73 1.065 83 0.980 70 1.048 66 0.981 43 1.069 72 1.053 65 1.044 67 11 689.30 619.68

2012 65 1.094 71 1.007 75 1.063 78 0.957 80 1.048 73 0.994 66 1.068 46 1.053 75 1.042 68 11 707.55 639.49

2013 65 1.082 70 1.000 71 1.057 79 0.957 75 1.043 83 0.987 72 1.066 70 1.050 48 1.033 78 11 722.36 654.70

2014 65 1.083 70 1.008 71 1.062 76 0.969 77 1.053 79 0.987 82 1.066 77 1.050 73 1.033 50 11 730.18 662.49

2015 65 1.089 71 1.006 71 1.062 75 0.969 73 1.049 80 0.988 78 1.066 87 1.052 81 1.038 76 11 768.40 700.51

2016 75 1.088 71 1.005 71 1.062 75 0.966 73 1.048 77 0.987 79 1.067 83 1.052 92 1.038 84 11 790.43 717.57

2017 75 1.087 82 1.005 71 1.061 76 0.964 72 1.048 76 0.989 76 1.067 85 1.052 87 1.037 95 11 805.70 727.43

2018 75 1.086 81 1.005 82 1.061 75 0.965 73 1.048 76 0.988 75 1.067 81 1.051 89 1.036 90 11 809.04 730.82

2019 75 1.087 81 1.006 82 1.062 87 0.967 73 1.049 76 0.988 75 1.067 80 1.051 85 1.036 92 11 818.26 740.01

2020 75 1.087 82 1.005 82 1.062 87 0.966 84 1.049 76 0.988 76 1.067 80 1.052 85 1.037 88 11 825.14 746.86

2021 75 1.087 82 1.005 82 1.061 87 0.966 84 1.049 88 0.988 75 1.067 81 1.052 84 1.037 88 11 836.33 758.07

Ernest Cumberland ES Enrolment History

Ernest Cumberland ES Enrolment History

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Ernest Cumberland ES Grade Distribution

Ernest Cumberland 2010-11 Grade Distribution

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Enrolm

ent

Ernest Cumberland ES JK History

Ernest Cumberland ES JK History

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

JK Enrolm

ent

Factors Affecting Projections & Retention Rates

• Attendance Area Changes/Holding School Designation

• Kindergarten In-take

• In/Out Factor

• Ministry Initiatives (Early Learning, elimination of OAC, etc.)

• Growth

• Demographics

• Actions of other school boards

• County program placement

• Economy

Capital Plan Projections

2010 Capital Plan 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Alliston Union PS 560 533 506 472 445 423 412 406 394 389 380 379

Ernest Cumberland ES 620 659 688 705 719 726 763 785 798 801 811 819

Total 1180 1192 1194 1177 1164 1149 1175 1191 1192 1190 1191 1198

2009 Capital Plan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Alliston Union PS 564 520 486 461 436 414 405 399 394 388 393 395

Ernest Cumberland ES 523 550 608 636 653 670 677 715 740 749 754 761

Total 1087 1070 1094 1097 1089 1084 1082 1114 1134 1137 1147 1156

2008 Capital Plan 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Alliston Union PS 601 591 543 570 549 529 518 512 513 510 514 519

Ernest Cumberland ES 477 492 564 690 740 790 837 863 917 950 955 938

Total 1078 1083 1107 1260 1289 1319 1355 1375 1430 1460 1469 1457

2007 Capital Plan 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Alliston Union PS 631 601 587 581 577 584 588 651 705 745 766 777

Ernest Cumberland ES 439 446 458 482 517 535 561 577 584 606 605 609

Total 1070 1047 1045 1063 1094 1119 1149 1228 1289 1351 1371 1386

Timing Considerations for New Schools in General

• Total number of students (sustainable)

• Capacity of school (OTG)

• Effects of Ministry of Education Policy and Initiatives

• Available space in neighbouring schools

• County Class or District Program placement

• Ability for schools to increase capacity (additions, reconfiguration)