simplex infra 4q fy 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Quarterly Highlights Standalone
Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 3QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)Net sales 1,486 1,796 1,352 (17.2) 10.0Operating profit 145 156 130 (7.0) 11.8
Adjusted Net profit 18 26 12 (30.9) 49.8Source: Company, Angel Research
Simplex Infrastructures (Simplex) reported a disappointing set of numbers for
4QFY2013 owing to slow moving order book (~20% of total order book)
and working capital pressures due to delay in payments from clients. The
company has secured orders worth `6,306cr in FY2013, taking the orderbook to`15,463cr (2.7x trailing revenue) as of 4QFY2013.
Slow moving orders impact execution: On the top-line front, the companyreported revenues of`1,486cr for 4QFY2013, a decline of 17.2% yoy, and was
below our estimate of `1,691cr. The revenue contribution from domestic and
overseas operations stood at 85% and 15%, respectively, for FY2013. On the
operating front, Simplex posted an EBITDA of`145cr in 4QFY2013, indicating a
decline of 7.0% yoy; the EBITDA margin stood at 9.8% and was above our
estimate of 8.8%. On the bottom-line front, the company reported an adjusted
PAT of `18cr for the quarter, a decline of 38.5% yoy, which was below our
estimate of `21cr respectively. This was mainly due to a lower-than-expected
revenue growth and high interest cost during the quarter.
Outlook and valuation: Simplex has not been performing well on the revenuefront since the last 2-3 consecutive quarters due to slow moving orders and
delays in payments from clients. However, the company has a strong order book
(`15,463cr; 2.7x trailing revenue) and we expect execution to pick up in
2HFY2014. We introduce FY2015 estimates, and build in a modest improvement
in the execution cycle from 2HFY2014. We estimate revenue and PAT CAGR of
9% and 32% over FY2013-15E. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with atarget price of `131, valuing the company at 7x FY2015E earnings.Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 5,983 5,885 6,296 7,020% chg 24.5 (1.6) 7.0 11.5
Adj.Net Profit 89 53 59 93% chg (28.2) (40.5) 10.5 57.5
EBITDA (%) 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.6
FDEPS (`) 18.1 10.8 11.9 18.7P/E (x) 5.7 9.5 8.6 5.5
P/BV (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
RoE (%) 7.8 4.3 4.5 6.7
RoCE (%) 10.7 8.6 8.8 9.7
EV/Sales (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.8 5.7 5.7 5.3
OB/Sales (x) 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4
Order Inflows 6,561 6,117 6,954 7,899
% chg (18.2) (6.8) 13.7 13.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUYCMP `103
Target Price `131
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Net Debt (` cr) 2,595
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 55.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 21.6
FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.6Indian Public / Others 10.8
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 4.8 21.8 19.2
Simplex (32.6) (54.0) (78.6)
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
507
0.8
264/101
884
Infrastructure
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (` cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
2
19,760
5,986
SINF.BO
SINF@IN
Viral Shah022-39357800 Ext: 6842
Simplex InfrastructuresPerformance Highlights
4QFY2013 Result Update | Infrastructure
May 31, 2013
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Simplex Infra | 4QFY2013 Result Update
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Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 3QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Net Sales 1,486 1,796 1,352 (17.2) 10.0 5,821 5,924 (1.7)Total Expenditure 1,341 1,640 1,222 (18.2) 9.8 5,283 5,390 (2.0)Operating Profit 145 156 130 (7.0) 11.8 538 534 0.7OPM (%) 9.8 8.7 9.6 107bp 16bp 9.2 9.0 23bp
Interest 77 68 74 12.8 3.7 289 228 26.6
Depreciation 50 48 51 3.5 (2.0) 200 183 9.4
Non Operating Income 7 2 14 185.6 (53.1) 42 18 138.8
Nonrecurring items - 3 (1) (100.0) (100.0) - (7) (100.0)
Profit Before tax 25 46 19 (44.2) 36.7 90 133 0.8Tax 8 16 7 (54.4) 3.4 31 44 (30.9)
Net Profit before MI 18 29 11 (38.5) 57.9 60 89 (33.0)PAT (%) 1.2 1.6 0.8 (42)bp 37bp 1.0 1.5 (48)bpMinority Interest (MI) - - - - - - -Net Profit after MI 18 26 12 (30.9) 49.8 60 96 (37.6)Adj. PAT (%) 1.2 1.4 0.9 (47bp (2)bp 1.0 1.6 (59)bp
Adj. FDEPS 3.6 5.3 2.4 (30.9) 49.8 12.1 19.4 (37.6)Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:4QFY2013 Actual vs Estimates
(` cr) Estimates Actual Variation (%)Net Sales 1,691 1,486 (12.1)
EBITDA 149 145 (2.4)
EBITDAM (%) 8.8 9.8 97bp
Interest and Financial Charges 70 77 8.9
Adj. PAT 21 18 (14.3)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Slow moving orders impact execution
On the top-line front, the company reported revenues of`1,486cr for 4QFY2013,
a decline of 17.2% yoy, and was below our estimate of`1,691cr. This was mainly
due to (a) slow moving order book (~20% of total order book) and (b) working
capital pressures due to delay in payments from clients. The revenue contribution
from domestic and overseas operations stood at 85% and 15%, respectively, for
FY2013.
The Management has guided for a revenue growth of ~10% in FY2014; it expects
order inflows to be in the range of `7,000-8,000cr in FY2014. We believe the
company would be able to meet its guidance in terms of order inflows.
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Exhibit 3:Execution performance disappoints
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4:Revenue mix (FY2013, %)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Slower execution hurts profitabilityOn the operating front, Simplex posted an EBITDA of `145cr in 4QFY2013,
indicating a decline of 7.0% yoy. The EBITDA margin stood at 9.8% and was
above our estimate of 8.8%. Going forward, given the current order book mix, we
estimate Simplex to report EBITDA margins in the range of 9.5-10%. On the
bottom-line front, the company reported an adjusted PAT of`18cr for 4QFY2013,
a decline of 38.5% yoy, and also below our estimate of`21cr. This was mainly due
to lower-than-expected revenue growth and high interest cost during the quarter.
Exhibit 5:EBITDAM back on track
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6:Slower execution hurts profitability
Source: Company, Angel Research
Order book analysis
The companys order book stood at `15,493cr (excluding L1 orders of
~`1,572cr), a growth of 1.8% yoy, thus converting into an order book to sales
ratio of 2.7x trailing revenues. Simplex had secured orders worth `2,052cr and
`6,306cr in 4QFY2013 and FY2013 respectively. Going forward, we expect the
domestic segment to drive revenue growth, which constitutes 85% of the total order
book.
1,
322
1,
569
1,
796
1,
585
1,
398
1,
352
1,
486
22.2
34.5 31.3
28.1
5.7
(13.9)(17.2)
(20.0)
(10.0)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13
Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)
19
22
10
16
33
11
Buildings
Roads &BridgesIndustrial
Marine
Pilling
Power
UrbanInfra
125
132
156
153
119
130
145
9.5
8.4
8.7
9.7
8.5
9.69.8
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13
EBITDA (`cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)
24
21
26
28
13
12
18
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.8
0.9 0.9
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.61.8
2.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13
PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)
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Exhibit 7:Order inflows Segment wise (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8:Order backlog Segment wise (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and valuation
Simplex has not been performing well on the revenue front since the last 2-3
consecutive quarters due to slow moving orders and delays in payments from
clients. However, the company has a strong order book (`15,463cr; 2.7x trailing
revenue) and we believe execution should pick up in 2HFY2014. The Management
has guided for a revenue growth of ~10% in FY2014; it expects order inflows to
be in the range of`7,000-8,000cr in FY2014. We believe the company would be
able to meet its guidance in terms of order inflows. Further, Simplex is a well-
diversified player in terms of sectors, geographies and client mix, and unlike its
peers, has limited exposure to road BOT assets.
We introduce FY2015 estimates, building in a modest improvement in the
execution cycle from 2HFY2014 onwards. We estimate revenue and PAT CAGR of
9% and 32% over FY2013-15E. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock, with atarget price of `131, valuing the company at 7x FY2015E earnings.
Investment argument
Diversified play
Simplex is one of the oldest infrastructure companies in India (over eight decades
of work log). Since inception, the company has been involved in different segments
of the infrastructure sector, from piling (1924) to power (1960), to roads, railways
and bridges (1980), and the real estate business (2007). The company has
executed ~2,400 projects and is currently involved in >150 ongoing projects in
India and abroad. This reflects the company's execution capabilities, and ability to
successfully execute complex and numerous projects on time. The company is also
well spread geographically, with a presence in the Middle-Eastern countries of
Qatar, Oman, Dubai and Abu Dhabi and is now venturing into newer
geographies such as Bangladesh. In terms of its client profile, Simplex has a
healthy mix of government and private sector projects. This successful
diversification has not only provided the company the experience of executing
different and complex projects but has also qualified it to bid for bigger ticket-size
projects going ahead.
16
39
5
6
3
15
2 15 Buildings
Bridges
Industrial
Marine
Pilling
Power
Rail
Urban Infra
25
297
3
3
20
2
10 Buildings
Bridges
Industrial
Marine
Pilling
Power
Rail
Urban Infra
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Exhibit 9:Recommendation summary
Company CMP TP Rating Top-line (` cr) EPS (`) P/E (x) OB/FY12 FY13E FY14E CAGR (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E CAGR (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E Sales (x)
ABL 201 255 Buy 1,853 1,928 2,234 9.8 16.0 18.0 22.2 17.7 12.6 11.2 9.1 2.3CCCL 11 - Neutral 1,931 2,281 2,492 13.6 (3.3) 0.7 2.0 - (3.4) 16.4 5.6 2.2
IRB Infra 119 157 Buy 3,687 3,997 4,312 8.1 16.7 15.7 16.6 (0.3) 7.1 7.6 7.2 2.4
ITNL 167 230 Buy 6,645 7,444 8,041 10.0 26.8 29.8 32.1 9.4 6.2 5.6 5.2 2.2
IVRCL 18 35 Buy 3,773 6,287 6,836 34.6 (3.9) 2.3 3.0 - - 7.5 5.8 4.9
JP Assoc. 66 90 Buy 13,358 14,850 15,631 8.2 2.2 2.5 2.9 13.8 29.8 26.0 23.1 -
L&T 1,402 1,761 Buy 60,873 68,946 78,040 13.2 67.5 77.9 88.3 14.4 20.8 18.0 15.9 2.5
NCC 31 42 Buy 5,725 6,167 6,945 10.1 2.4 2.7 3.6 22.0 12.8 11.7 8.6 3.2
Punj Lloyd 43 - Neutral 11,717 12,954 14,740 12.2 (0.2) 0.5 0.9 - - 84.9 46.3 1.9
Sadbhav 109 153 Buy 1,565 2,511 2,736 32.2 1.5 7.3 7.8 131.3 75.0 15.1 14.0 3.3
Simplex In. 103 131 Buy 5,897 6,308 7,033 9.2 10.8 11.9 18.7 31.9 9.5 8.6 5.5 2.7Unity Infra 29 45 Buy 2,180 2,455 2,734 12.0 12.7 14.6 14.9 8.0 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10:SOTP breakup
Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP `
ABL 87 34 - - 168 66 - - - - 255
CCCL 16 100 - - - - - - - - 16
IRB Infra 45 29 - - 112 71 - - - - 157
ITNL 80 35 - - 120 52 - - 30 13 230IVRCL 15 43 - - - - 20 57 - - 35
JP Assoc. 24 27 23 25 - - - - 43 48 90
L&T 1,318 75 - - - - 443 25 - - 1,761
NCC 23 55 - - 7 17 - - 12 29 42
Punj Lloyd 64 100 - - - - - - - - 64
Sadbhav 54 35 - - 99 65 - - - - 153
Simplex In. 131 100 - - - - - - - - 131Unity Infra 45 100 - - - - - - - - 45
Source: Company, Angel Research
Company background
Simplex is one of the oldest construction companies in India, based in Kolkata.
Over the years, Simplex has diversified across various segments to encash upon
the untapped opportunities emerging in the construction business and has
delivered on an excellent track record. The company is present across
eight segments buildings (25% of order book), bridges (5%), industrial (10%),
marine (1%), pilling (3%), power (23%), rail and roads (24%) and
urban infrastructure (8%).
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Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 4,552 4,808 5,983 5,885 6,296 7,020Other operating income 12 16 26 12 11 12Total operating income 4,564 4,824 6,010 5,897 6,308 7,033% chg (3.1) 5.7 24.6 (1.9) 7.0 11.5
Total Expenditure 4,110 4,333 5,477 5,361 5,711 6,356R.M. consumed 1,856 1,705 2,306 2,252 2,336 2,619
Construction expenses 580 250 293 259 277 309
Employee expenses 1,472 1,711 1,972 2,015 2,217 2,439
SG&A 202 668 907 835 881 990
EBITDA 454 491 532 536 596 677% chg 12.5 8.1 8.5 0.7 11.2 13.5
(% of Net Sales) 9.9 10.2 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.6
Depreciation & Amortisation 157 167 189 206 213 226
EBIT 297 324 344 330 383 451% chg 9.2 9.1 6.1 (4.0) 16.1 17.6
(% of Net Sales) 6.5 6.7 5.7 5.6 6.1 6.4
Interest & other Charges 122 148 231 290 346 369
Other Income 26 24 21 43 50 56
(% of PBT) 13.0 12.0 15.6 51.8 57.9 40.7
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 201 200 133 83 87 138% chg 15.8 (0.1) (33.5) (37.7) 5.0 58.7
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - (5.8) - - -
PBT (reported) 201 200 127 83 87 138Tax 71.5 74.4 44.7 30.9 29.6 47.0
(% of PBT) 35.6 37.1 35.1 37.3 34.0 34.0
PAT (reported) 129 126 83 52 57 91Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) 1.9 1.4 (1.0) (1.2) (1.4) (1.5)
Prior period items - - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 127 125 84 53 59 93ADJ. PAT 127 125 89 53 59 93% chg 3.0 (2.0) (28.2) (40.5) 10.5 57.5(% of Net Sales) 2.8 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.3
Basic EPS (`) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 11.9 18.7Fully Diluted EPS (`) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 11.9 18.7% chg 3.0 (2.0) (28.2) (40.5) 10.5 57.5
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Balance sheet (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 10 10 10 10 10 10Share App Money - warrants - - - - - -
Reserves & Surplus 968 1,078 1,197 1,273 1,327 1,413
Shareholders Funds 978 1,088 1,207 1,283 1,336 1,423Minority Interest 5 6 6 10 8 7Total Loans 1,302 1,661 2,132 2,656 2,956 3,156
Deferred Tax Liability 88 138 195 205 209 216
Total Liabilities 2,374 2,893 3,539 4,154 4,510 4,802APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 1,277 1,509 1,804 1,903 2,003 2,103
Less: Acc. Depreciation 289 384 525 670 819 977
Net Block 988 1,125 1,279 1,233 1,184 1,126Capital Work-in-Progress 19 27 44 44 44 44
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 3 23 54 93 93 93Current Assets 3,125 3,766 4,909 5,764 6,193 6,828Inventories 671 812 879 798 861 958
Sundry Debtors 1,806 2,298 1,689 2,305 2,419 2,697
Cash 110 106 73 83 87 99
Loans & Advances 398 405 630 793 819 913
Other 140 145 1,638 1,785 2,007 2,161
Current liabilities 1,760 2,048 2,747 2,981 3,004 3,289
Net Current Assets 1,364 1,718 2,162 2,783 3,188 3,539Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 2,374 2,893 3,539 4,154 4,510 4,802Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 201 200 127 83 87 138
Depreciation 81 95 141 144 149 158Change in Working Capital (212) (357) (478) (611) (401) (339)
Less: Other income (26) (24) (21) (43) (50) (56)
Direct taxes paid (71) (74) (45) (31) (30) (47)
Cash Flow from Operations (28) (160) (275) (458) (245) (146)(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (63) (241) (312) (99) (100) (100)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (1) (20) (31) (39) - -
Other income 26 24 21 43 50 56
Cash Flow from Investing (37) (237) (322) (95) (50) (44)Issue of Equity (21) - (0) - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 82 358 471 524 300 200
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (12) (12) (11) (11) (6) (6)
Others 7 47 104 50 4 7
Cash Flow from Financing 56 393 564 563 299 201Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (9) (4) (33) 10 4 12
Opening Cash balances 119 110 106 73 83 87Closing Cash balances 110 106 73 83 87 99
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Key RatiosY/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 4.0 4.1 5.7 9.5 8.6 5.5P/CEPS 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.6
P/BV 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Dividend yield (%) 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
EV/EBITDA 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.7 5.7 5.3
EV / Total Assets 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 11.9 18.7
EPS (fully diluted) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 11.9 18.7
Cash EPS 57.5 58.9 56.2 52.5 54.9 64.4
DPS 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Book Value 197.7 219.9 244.0 259.4 270.1 287.7
Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 6.5 6.7 5.7 5.6 6.1 6.4
Tax retention ratio 64.4 62.9 64.9 62.7 66.0 66.0
Asset turnover (x) 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5
ROIC (Post-tax) 8.8 8.1 7.1 5.5 6.0 6.5
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.2 6.3 7.9 7.6 8.2 8.0
Leverage (x) 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.1
Operating ROE 11.9 10.5 5.9 1.6 1.4 3.4
Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 13.0 12.3 10.7 8.6 8.8 9.7
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 13.8 12.9 11.1 8.9 9.1 10.0
ROE 13.5 12.1 7.8 4.3 4.5 6.7
Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.4
Inventory / Sales (days) 54 56 51 52 48 47
Receivables (days) 139 155 121 124 137 133
Payables (days) 156 159 159 194 190 180
Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 234 253 258 325 341 333
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1
Net debt to EBITDA 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.8 4.8 4.5
Interest Coverage 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Simplex Infra
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)