sinaloa--revenue shift da

8/10/2019 Sinaloa--Revenue Shift DA

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Sinaloa Are the Shit

First is our uniqueness:

Violence from the drug war is on the decline now crime ratestatistics prove that Nietos reforms are workingZaludovsk! "#$%#&'(Karla Zaludovsk!covers Latin America for Newsweek. Murders in Mexico Down From Heigtof te Drug !ar" #ut $iolence %ersists& Filed' )*+)&'at ,'-* %M tt'))www.newsweek.com)murders/mexico/down/eigt/drug/war/violence/ersists/*,0110

Some of the (e)ican states where drug warrelatedviolence has een most

intense * like +oahuila* ,uerrero and -amaulipas* showed a decreased homicide

rate . /n 0urango * part of the (e)ican 1golden triangle*2 an area notorious for

drug trafficking* homicides decreased ! nearl! half in $3&% as compared to the

previous !ear.4 AD$234562M2N47 5t is unclear wat ercentage of recorded omicides are related to organi8ed crime since tegovernment modified te classification in 9cto:er" doing awa; wit a searate categor; for drug war G a title last eld :; Al ?aone. >?hat Al +apone was to eer and whiske! * >said

commission mem:er Artur #ilek" = ,u9m@n is to narcotics .>7 How did te cartel get started7 Mexican smugglers ave longtrafficked omegrown eroin and mariuana to te .6. #ut in te >10s" Mexico also :ecame te rimar; route for ?olom:ian cocaine :ound for te.6. At te time" .6. law enforcement was cracking down on te ?olom:ian drug roducersB attemts to si te lucrative drug into Florida :; :oatsand lanes. 6o te ?olom:ians ired MexicoBs Juadalaara cartel to smuggle drugs across te :order" and aid tem in cocaine" wic allowed teMexicans to :uild teir own drug networks in te .6. #efore long" te Mexicans were te senior artners in te relationsi. !en JuadalaaraBsleader was arrested in >11" te grouBs remaining caos" including a ;oung Ju8mn" divided u its trafficking routes" creating te 6inaloa" ure8" and4iuana cartels. 4ese gangs soon :ecame locked in a series of turf wars tat ave killed more tan ,0"000 eole. #ut trougout te :loodsed" 2l

?aoBs organi8ation as continued to grow.7 !; as 6inaloa succeeded7 4e C/foot/, Ju8mn ma; :e a grade scool droout" :ut eBs also =alogistical genius"= said ack 3ile;" te ead of te Drug 2nforcement AdministrationBs ?icago division. HeBs trafficked cocaine from ?olom:ia toMexico in small rivate lanes" in te luggage of airline assengers" and on te cartelBs own -s. 6inaloa as also moved cocaine on custom/:uilt E>million su:marines. 2l ?ao" C," as sown similar ingenuit; moving drugs from Mexico to te .6. HeBs :uilt scores of tunnels under te :order"some of wic are air/conditioned and :oast alf/mile/long trolle; lines. HeBs sent drugs troug .6. ceckoints in idden car comartments" in cansof alaeOos" and in te :ellies of fro8en sark carcasses. 9nce in te .6." te drugs are ferried to wareouses in ?icago G wic Ju8mn as calledis =ome ort= G :efore :eing divided u and distri:uted across te nation.7 !; ?icago7 5tBs te transortation u: of America. 4e cit; is located

witin a da;Bs drive of 0 ercent of te nationBs oulation" and is crisscrossed :; maor interstate igwa;s and railwa; lines. ?icago is also a ugedrug market in its own rigt. 6ome , ercent of eole arrested in ?ook ?ount; in *0>* tested ositive for at least one i llegal narcotic G te igestercentage of an; :ig .6. cit;. !it is monool; in te cit;" Ju8mn dou:led wolesale eroin rices" tus cutting rofit margins for street dealers.4at fueled greater cometition for turf and exacer:ated ?icagoBs eidemic of gang violence. =5t used to :e onor among tieves"= said Harold !ard" aformer gang mem:er turned anti/violence camaigner. =Now" itBs :; an; means necessar;.=7 How violent is te cartel7 6inaloa can :e exceedingl;

:rutal G it left >- severed eads in ice:oxes outside a ma;orBs office in te nortern Mexican cit; of Nuevo Laredo in *0>*. #ut comared wit otercartel leaders" 2l ?ao is a ractical :usinessman wo refers =:ri:e over :ullet.= He invests millions in corruting olice and government officials in


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Mexico rater tan intimidating tem wit violence. =4ere is a level/eadedness a:out P6inaloaBsQ leadersi tat te oter grous lack"= said Malcolm#eit" autor of a :ook on Ju8mn titled 4e Last Narco. 6ome o:servers claim tat tis fact as led :ot Mexican and .6. autorities to go eas; on

6inaloa.7 5s tat allegation true7A $3&3 National 5ulic adio investigation of (e)ican arrestrecords noted that Sinaloa had suffered notal! fewer arrests than other cartel s. .6.court documents also show that top Sinaloa officials regularl! met with 06A agents

etween $33B and $3&$ and fed them intelligence aout rival cartels" helping law

enforcement crush their competitors. .6. and Mexican officials ave denied sowing an; favoritism toward 6inaloa"

and te D2A as arrested several ig/ranking cartel mem:ers in recent ;ears" including esRs $icente Sam:ada Nie:la" te son of te organi8ationBs

No. * leader" 5smael Sam:ada. 5n a rare *0>0 interview" the senior Zamada said that such arrests had noeffect on the cartel" and that its drugs would keep flowing north even if 6l +hapo

were rought down. =!en it comes to te caos" ailed" dead" or extradited"= e said" >their replacements are

read!.>

And* the Sinaloa victor! directl! correlates to increased peace in (e)ico ;continued monopol! is ke! to prevent an e)plosion of violence

0otinga &' C3and;" =4iuana $iolence 4icks " #ut Don@t #lame ?artels"= $oice of 6an Diego" Aril >"voiceofsandiego.org)*0>-)0-)>)tiuana/violence/ticks/u/:ut/dont/:lame/cartels)

?h! did violence suddenl! e)plode in $33D *a ;ear after Mexico saw a record/low omicide rate7 -he

Sinaloa +artel and its former partners suddenl!egan to fight against each other.!e@re not sure w; te feud :roke out :etween tose organi8ations"ut it led to a no;holds;arred attempt totake over ma=or 9ones of control in different parts of (e)ico " eseciall; along te :order.7As aresult*we saw an e)plosion of violence in -i=uana* +iudad Euare9 and (te Mexican state ofNuevo eonfrom *00/*0>0.7 7ut in $3&&* things had egun to shift . 4ere were -> omicides in 4iuanatat ;ear" and eole were alread; talking a:out ow good tings were.7 9f course" >0/>C ;ears ago" no one would ave found close to C00 omicides to

:e an acceta:le level.7 How as violence in 4iuana evolved from te worst da;s of te drug/war eriod7 /ts a different kind ofviolence now.4Tou don@t see :odies anging from :ridges" decaitated eads" running gun :attles in te streets of 4iuana.7 /nstead*theres more locali9ed* street;corner violence among local criminals fighting overturf* nothing like what we saw in $33D and $33G.4!at does te current level of violence mean for residentsof 4iuana wo aren@t criminals7 5 don@t tink te cange in te level of violence G >,0 additional omicides G as te same direct effect on dail; livesas te *00 violence" wic was reall; terrif;ing for eole in 4iuana.7 For ordinar; citi8ens" for scoolkids" for ousewives" for :usinesseole" tisdoes not mean a maor cange in teir da;/to/da; lifest;le. 5f ;ou@re driving ;our kids to scool ever; da;" tis ;ear is no different tan last ;ear.7 5n*00" ;ou were muc more likel; to :e directl; confronted wit a sign of tis violence.7 Tou were driving under tose :ridges and seeing tose gu;sanging from tem. 5 ad Mexican students wo@d go soing at ?ostco and see someone run out wit an automatic weaon in front of teir car.7 5

don@t tink wat we saw last ;ear entered te radar screen of ordinar; eole.7 !at calmed te drug wars7 5art of the reasonwere seeing things calm down is that competition has largel! eroded.-he Sinaloa

+artel largel! won. Hou have one ig organi9ation that calls the shots* and nood!

reall! challenges them.4-he cartel is still ver! strong even after the arrest ofleader Eoaquin 16l +hapo2 ,u9man. 5t@s still the largest and most powerfulorgani9ation* and his usiness partners who are at large still have effective controlof the organi9ations drug operations.7?hen theres no competition in the lack

market *it@s a terri:le ting if ;ou@re tr;ing to sto te flow of drugs. 7ut its a great thing if !ou want peace. 7

% link arguments

&. /nternal estructuring ; revenue decline causes an increase inviolence la!offs* competition* and internal management fights

7eau Iilmer et al &3(?odirector" 3AND Drug %olic; 3esearc ?enterU 6enior %olic; 3esearcer" 3ANDU %rofessor" %ardee3AND Jraduate 6cool" et al" *0>0" 3educing Drug 4rafficking 3evenues and $iolence in Mexico' !ould Legali8ing Mariuana in ?alifornia Hel"&tt'))www.rand.org)content)dam)rand)u:s)occasionalVaers)*0>0)3ANDV9%+*C.df

%resuma:l;" the 0-J demand for laor will decline" at least at te aggregate level. ,iventhe lack of speciali9ation* one would think almost all the individual 0-Js willsuffer some4 decline. 9ne uestion is weter tose reductions in force& can :e acieved troug natural7 attrition& or weterthe! will require 1la!offs *2 to use familiar industrial argon.7 arge;scale dismissals might carr! a

peculiar risk * oth for the organi9ation and for soci;4 et! in general. -hose who are

Kred ma! tr! to create their own organi9ations " so D49 manag/7 ers ma; ave to tink strategicall; a:out wom


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to dismiss. Also* those leaving have proal!4ecome accustomed to earning levels the!cannot attain in legal trade. 6ince te wole indus/7 tr; would :e affected :; te downturn" other 0-Js will not

e hiring. 4us* the Kred agents4 might attempt to compete with their formeremplo!ers .4Hence" in te sort run" there could e additional violence resulting from at leastthree4 sources:4 B conLict etween the current leaders and the dismissed laor7 W

within 0-Js.6ven after the Kring of e)cess laor* the earnings of the leadership

most4 likel! will decline. 9ne wa; te individual manager migt comensate for tis is to elimi/7 nate is or er suerior"generating s!stemic internal violence from senior managers wo7 :ecome more susicious in te face of te overall

decline in earnings.7 Wetween 0-Js. -he leadership of an individual 0-J ma! tr! tomaintain their earnings4 ! eliminating close competitors.

$. 0rug shift economic strain causes crime shift that is destaili9ingecause it increases cartel competition(urra! et. al &&(?ad Murra;" Aslee ackson Amanda ?. MiralrIo" Nicolas 2iden" Aril *,t *0>>"2lliott 6cool of 5nternational

Affairs)5nter/American Drug A:use ?ontrol ?ommission' ?astone 3eort"tts'))elliott.gwu.edu)sites)elliott.gwu.edu)files)downloads)acad)las)mexico/mariuana/0>>>>.df" Mexican Drug 4rafficking 9rgani8ations andMariuana' 4e %otential 2ffects of .6. Legali8ation

(e)ican 0- Js would likel!ranch into other avenues of crime . 5erhaps the mostovious short;4 tenn effect of mari=uana legali9ation is that this would ro the

Sinaloa and -i=uana cartels of up4 to half of their total revenue.l &" -he economicstrain placed on the Sinaloa cartel and -i=uana4 cartel ma! not necessaril! help

(e)ico in the short term. -he short;term effects of legali9ation4 could ver! well

create chaos for (e)ico .-he cartels compensate for their loss of drug revenue4 !

ranching out into other criminal activities//kidnaing" murder/for/ire" contra:and" illega immigrant smuggling"extortion" teft of oil and oter items" loan/sarking" rostitution" selling7 rotection" etc.&l 4is means tat if te social and economic enviromnent

remains te same7 ten te; are not going to return to te licit world.&l >1 /f the Sinaloa cartel and the -i=uana4cartel turn towards activities like kidnapping* human trafficking and e)tortion* it

could lead to a4 spike in violence that would prove to e destaili9ing in those

organi9ations areas of operation.

And* there is a tangile impact to the shift Sinaloa would go to war with the othercartels(urra! et. al &&(?ad Murra;" Aslee ackson Amanda ?. MiralrIo" Nicolas 2iden" Aril *,t *0>>"2lliott 6cool of 5nternational


-he Sinaloa cartel and -iiuana cartel would likel! e)pand into the cocaine* heroin*and4 meth amphetamine networks. Several e)perts agree that if mari=uana were nolonger a proKtale4 enterprise for the Sinaloa cartel and 4iuana cartel te; would sift towards trafXckingin oter7 roXta:le drugs. &$B ?hat is less clear" however* is how this t!pe of transition wouldaffect4 violence. As mentioned earlier in tis aer" the ,ulf +artel* a Familia* and the Euare9

cartel are4 alread! heavil! committed to the cocaine* heroin* and

meth amphetamine industries to various4 e)tents. -hese other 0-Js might

respond violentl! to an! attempts ! the Sinaloa cartel or4 -i=uana cartel to take

an! of their shares of the trafKcking market. Jiven tat its revenue streams7 were disruted" tere is also teossi:ilit; tat te 6inaloa cartel would make a deal wit its7 allies" te Julf ?artel and La Familia" rater tan Xgt tem. 4e imlications of tis are7

unclear. /f this occurs then the legali9ation of mari=uanawill have rought few

securit!4 dividends


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%. 5ower =ocke!ing ; the aff causes power =ocke!ing etween thecartels that increases mari=uana violence5avlik &'(im" =Legal %ot Means More $iolence in Mexico


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;;;t#c

egali9ation causes spill up and turns the whole aff

?arles D. ?ull;& Stimson &3is a 6enior Legal Fellow in te ?enter for Legal Y udicial 6tudies at 4e Heritage Foundation. #eforeoining 4e Heritage Foundation" e served as Deut; Assistant 6ecretar; of DefenseU as a local" state" federal" and militar; rosecutorU and as a defenseattorne; and law rofessor. Legali8ing Mariuana' !; ?iti8ens 6ould ust 6a; No& Legal Memorandum ZC, on Legal 5ssues 6etem:er >+" *0>0.

tt'))www.eritage.org)researc)reorts)*0>0)01)legali8ing/mariuana/w;/citi8ens/sould/ust/sa;/noac ,/>$iolent" :rutal" and rutless" MexicanDTOs will work to maintain their black-market proftsat te exense of Americanciti8ens@ safet;. 2ver; week" tere are news articles cataloguing te murders" kidnaings" ro::eries" and oter tuggis :rutalit; emlo;ed :; Mexican

drug gangs along te :order. It is nonsensical to argue that these gangs will simply give up

producing mari=uana when it is legalizedU indeed" their profts might soar , depending on theactual tax in ali!ornia and the economics o! the interstate trade.!ile suc rofits migt not :e ossi:le ifmariuana was legali8ed at te national level and tese gangs were undercut :; mass roduction" tat is unlikel; ever to aen. Nor does an;one reall;

:elieve tat te gangs will su:ect temselves to state and local regulation" including taxation. And since te ?alifornia :allot does noting to eliminate

te :lack market for mariuanaGuite te oosite" in factGlegalizing mari"uana will only incenti#ize $exican DTOs

to grow more mari"uana to !eed the demand and exploit the black market. %urtermore" shouldali!ornia legalize mari"uana, other entrepreneurs will ine#itably attempt to enter the

marketplace and game the s!stem . In doing so, they will compete with $exican 0-Js

and other criminal organizations. Ine#itably, violence will follow , and unlike now, that

#iolence will not e confined to the order as large;scale growers seek to protecttheir turf &tur! that will necessarily include anywhere they grow, har#est, process, or sellmari"uana. 'hile this may sound !ar-!etched, ali!ornians in (lameda ounty are alreadyexperiencing the reality o! cartel-run mari"uana !arms on sometimes stolen land,)*+protected by guys )who are pretty hea#ily armed and willing to protect theirmerchandise.&PCCQ It is not uncommon !or drugs with large illegal markets to be controlled bycartels despite attempts to roll them into the normal medical control scheme. For instance"cocaine has a medical purpose and can be prescribed by doctors as 2r;trox;lum coca" yet its trueproduction and distribution are controlled by drug cartels and organized crime.PC,Q (scompetition !rom growers and dispensaries authorized by the T( cuts !urther into the

$exican DTOs/ business, ali!ornians will !ace a real possibility o! loodshed on their own

soil as the cartels/ proft-protection measures turn !rom defensive to offensive . 4us"

mariuana legalization will increase crime, drug use, and social dislocation across te state of ?aliforniaGteexact oosite of wat ro/legali8ation advocates romise.

+auses me)ican government to accommodate cartels that causes ma=or acklashfrom the nited States.(urra! &&(?ad" 2lliott 6cool of 5nternational Affairs)5nter/American Drug A:use ?ontrol ?ommission" ?ad Murra;" Aslee ackson"

Amanda ?. MiralrIo" Nicolas 2iden" -)*,

2ffects of Legali8ation on Mexican D49s $exican DTOs would likely lose all o! the re#enuefrom selling Mexican/roduced mariuana in te nited 6tates. 4e most academicall; sound estimate is tat Mexican D49s make E>.C :illion a ;ear in wolesale mariuanarevenues. 4e; would lose E*>-" *C">- a ;ear in ?alifornia alone" and E>"*C"000"000 from te total national market if onl; ?alifornia legali8ed and

te federal resonse was muted.>0 5n tis reort" we postulate that $exican DTOs could lose all o! their profts!rom $exican-produced mari"uanaunder tese conditions :ecause te 4H? to dollar ratio is likel; not te sole determining factorfor mariuana consumers. Furtermore" if ?alifornia legali8ed mariuana oter states would likel; follow suit and diversion would increase (assuming aconsistent or weakened federal resonse. Mexican D49s could still make some mone; off of mariuana :; roducing it in te nited 6tates. 4is is

:ecause" Mexican criminal grous oerate large outdoor canna:is lots" often comosed of several tousand lants" articularl; on u:lic lands inwestern states.&>0 9ne exert we soke to :elieved tat for te Mexican D49 grow oerations on .6. soil" legali8ation would ave little" if an;reercussions.>01 4is reort argues tat for Mexican D49s to comete in a legali8ed .6. market te ualit; of teir .6./roduced roduct wouldave to increase significantl;. 5n addition" te; would ave to roduce on suc a large scale tat avoiding detection would :e extraordinaril; difficult. Arecent raid :; te Mexican Arm; found *- ectares dotted wit greenouses in te state of 6inaloa utili8ing comlex irrigation and fertili8ations;stems.>>0 4is demonstrates tat Mexican D49s are now attemting to comete wit .6. sinsemilla. However" esta:lising suc comlexoerations on te .6. side of te :order would :e a muc more difficult undertaking considering te logistical reuirements. 4is is eseciall; true

now tat local" state" and federal law enforcement agencies are launcing unrecedented& efforts to com:at illicit mariuana >0C >0, >0 Kilmer" etal." 3educing Drug 4rafficking 3evenues and $iolence in Mexico. *-. Nataniel Morris" interview :; autors" Arcata" ?A" Marc ," *0>0. 4otal MexicanD49 mariuana revenue was E>.C :illion in *00. ?alifornia reresents [ of tat market and te 3AND ?ororation estimates tat Mexican D49s

would lose C[ of teir market sare nationall; if ?alifornia sensimilla were easil; diverted to oter states. Kilmer" et al." 3educing Drug 4rafficking3evenues and $iolence in Mexico. *>. >0 .6. Deartment of ustice" National Drug 5ntelligence ?enter" Domestic ?anna:is ?ultivation Assessment.*. >01 Dra. #eatri8 3amire8" interview :; autors" Mexico ?it;" D.F." Mexico" Marc >," *0>>. >>0 Mica 3osen:erg" Mexico mariuana growers learnnew tricks from .6.& 3euters (Decem:er >-" *0>0 tt'))www.reuters.com)article)*0>0)>*)>C)us/mexico/drugs/id6432,#20??*0>0>*>C

(accessed Fe:ruar; >0" *0>>. * growt on u:lic lands.>>> Moreover" these operations would not be #iable on the
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/09/legalizing-marijuana-why-citizens-should-just-say-nohttp://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/09/legalizing-marijuana-why-citizens-should-just-say-no


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$exican side o! the border dueto te investments and trafficking costs associated wit suc endeavors. $exican DTOswould try to sell mari"uana in other markets. As discussed in ?ater *" mariuana is ro:a:l; not te largest revenuestream for all D49s. However" it is more significant for some tan oters. 6ecificall;" !or $exico0s largest DTO 1the 2inaloacartel3and one of its most violent (te 4iuana cartel" the losses would be signifcant. #ased on teir areas of oeration"sei8ures to wic te; were linked" and law enforcement intelligence ertaining to tese D49s" mariuana \is likel; a maorit; of te revenuegenerated" wit Mexican eroin" metametamine" and 6out American cocaine trailing.&>>* 5f te mariuana roduced :; tese D49s were no longer

via:le in te .6. market" te; ma; tr; to unload existing stocks onto te domestic market. #ased on te num:er of reorted users in eac countr;"some exerts currentl; estimate tat 10[ of Mexican D49 mariuana roduction is destined for te .6. wile >0[ sta;s at ome.>>+ 5n Mexico" tere

as :een a reorted *0[ increase in te lifetime revalence of mariuana use since *00*" :ut ealt officials tat we soke wit stated tat tis is mostlikel; due to more effective surve;ing as oosed to increased use. >>- However" even if tese D49s could exand te domestic market it still would notrovide te rofits necessar; to make mariuana a significant revenue source" given te lower rices for tis drug in Mexico. 4ere is also te ossi:ilit;

tat Mexican D49s could turn to oter international markets for teir mariuana.The likelihood o! $exican DTOs tra4ckingcannabis to the 5uropean market is possible but unlikely" due to te low weigt to value ratio of mariuana and tetransortation costs of overseas trafficking. 5t is ossi:le tat D49s would unleas Mexican mariuana sulies on oter Latin American countries.6out American mariuana use as :een steadil; increasing" wit te largest ercentage of users in ?ile" Argentina" and rugua;.>>C However"%aragua;" ?olum:ia" and #ra8il alread; roduce te canna:is consumed in tis region. 4erefore" Mexican mariuana would ave to comete wit

tese alread; esta:lised :argain/riced suliers.>>, 2ven if te; succeeded in controlling tis market" it would take time. 'hat is certainis that at least in the short-term" the 2inaloa cartel and Ti"uana cartel would lose nearly allcurrent re#enues !rom mari"uana i! 6.2. states legalized that product under a muted federal resonse. 6ort/term 2ffects on Mexican D49s and 6ecurit; 5mlications $exican DTOs would likely branch into other a#enueso! crime. %eras te most o:vious sortterm effect of mariuana legali8ation is tat tis would ro: te 6inaloa and 4iuana cartels of u to alf ofteir total revenue.>>The economic strain placed on the 2inaloacartel and 4iuana cartel may not necessarilyhelp $exico in the short term.The short-term e7ects o! legalization could #ery well create

chaos !or $exico. The cartels compensate !or their loss o! drug re#enue by branching outinto other criminal acti#ities-/kidnaing" murder/for/ire" contra:and" illegal >>> >>* 4om Allman" interview conducted :; autors"kia" ?A" Marc " *0>>. Am; L. 3oderick" .6. Drug 2nforcement Administration" 6an Diego Field Division" email corresondence wit autors" 6anDiego" ?A" Fe:ruar; *+" *0>> >>+ Kilmer" et al." 3educing Drug 4rafficking 3evenues and $iolence in Mexico. . >>- os] Luis $8ue8" interviewconducted :; autors" Mexico ?it;" DF" Mexico Marc >" *0>>. >>C nited Nations" 9ffice on Drugs and ?rime" !orld Drug 3eort *0>0. >1,. >>,nited Nations" 9ffice on Drugs and ?rime" !orld Drug 3eort *00. 1. >> Am; L. 3oderick" e/mail message to autors" Fe:ruar; *+" *0>> *immigrant smuggling" extortion" teft of oil and oter items" loan/sarking" rostitution" selling rotection" etc.&>> 4is means tat if te social and

economic environment remains te same ten te; are not going to return to te licit world.&>>1 5f te 2inaloa cartel and theTi"uana cartel turn towards acti#ities like kidnapping, human tra4cking and extortion, itcould lead to a spike in #iolencetat would rove to :e desta:ili8ing in tose organi8ations areas of oeration. 4e 6inaloa carteland 4iuana cartel migt slinter into smaller grous. 5n addition" the loss o! more than +89 o! re#enue wouldprobably !orce them to downsize their operations. Like an; large :usiness going troug downsi8ing" emlo;ees willlikel; :e sed first in order to maintain rofita:ilit;.>*0 4ese former D49 oeratives will likel; not return to earning a legitimate income" :ut rater

will indeendentl; find new revenue sources in a manner similar to teir emlo;ers.There!ore it is possible that thelegalization o! mari"uana in the 6nited 2tates could cause territories currently under the

control o! the 2inaloa cartel and Ti"uana cartel to become more #iolent than they are toda;.4is is trou:ling" as 6inaloa" #aa ?alifornia" 6onora" and ?iuaua states are alread; among te most violent areas of Mexico.>*> Medium/termeffects on Mexican D49s and 6ecurit; 5mlications 4e 6inaloa cartel@s a:ilit; to wage violence would likel; :e amered. !it a massive dro in terevenue stream of te 6inaloa cartel" Mexico s largest and most owerful D49 could :e dealt a otentiall; devastating :low. 4e 6inaloa cartel could :efinanciall; and tus logisticall; amered from exanding into oter D49s territor;. 5f inter/cartel conflicts due to territor; disutes are diminised"

tis could lead to a reduction of violence.The :I might negotiate with $exican DTOs .During the ;


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stating its intensions" the go#ernment would a#oid cooperating with the 6nited 2tatesto reress te cartels.2uch accommodation could be accomplished tacitly. 9r" in te worst of cases" the go#ernment mightdirectly or indirectly broker agreementsdefining geograical trafficking corridors to te nited 6tates for eac cartel. ndertis t;e of arrangement" the cartels could continue their drug tra4cking businessfocused on te 6 market

witout concern for confrontation wit government securit; forces unless teir failure to onor teir tactic or formal agreements caused ro:lemsinside Mexico. 4is t;e of accommodation scenario ma; seem far/fetced. However" during its 0 ;ear in ower" te %35 maintained sta:ilit; and

avoided art; fragmentation troug a cororatist aroac.The :I would essential >buy o7> dissidents with "obs,

programs, subsidies" sinecures" or oter incentives to aease teir comlaints and tere:; incororate tese otentiall; ro:lematicindividuals and grous into te olitical s;stem. !itin tat framework" the :I allowed ma"or drug cartels to increase their in?uence andpower" due artiall; to entrenced corrution and a lack of accounta:ilit; witin te government. 2xamles of suc ig/level corrution a:ound. 5nte >10s" te entire Federal 6ecurit; Dictorate was dis:anded :ecause it ad :een comletel; taken over :; te drug cartels. Anoter well/knowninstance in >11 involved %resident 2rnesto SedilloBs Drug ?8ar" Jeneral esus Jutierre8 3e:ollo. Altoug raised :; is 6 counterart #arr;Mc?affre; for is integrit;" Jeneral Jutierre8 was arrested :arel; two monts later for aving :een on uare8 ?artel a;roll for ;ears. Moreover" wilete federal olice lacked te skills and autorit; necessar; to carr; out investigations" criminal organi8ations controlled te state and municial olice.

As a result" te Mexican government could not act effectivel; against te cartels even wen te olitical will to do so excited. 5n tis vein" two formersenior Mexican officials" orge ?asteneda and 3u:en Aguilar "ave exressed a worrisome ersective. 4e; stated u:licl; tat MexicoBs war on drugsand organi8ed crime as failed / and cannot :e won. Moreover" they highlight that the drug problem is only an issue !or the 6nited 2tates /not for Mexico.The authors assert that since the 6nited 2tates is not willing to address the drug war e7ecti#ely" $exicans couldreduce #iolence in their county by" in effect" tolerating narcotics-tra4cking organization. 4e; emasi8e tat it is not necessar; to ave anexlicit act wit te 4?9sU moreover" tactic agreements wit te 4?9s regarding drugs would allow Mexican securit; forces to concentrate on citi8ensecurit; tasks suc as extortion" kidnaing" and teft. Furter" some commentators assert tat a %35 victor; in te residential election would in effect

:ring a:out te adotion of otion D. %eras suc assertions are artisan efforts to curr; votes for oter olitical arties. 9r" te; ma; reflect concerntat >* ;ears out of office ma; :e insufficient time for te %35 to ave transformed te art; =maciner;= and develoed over 0 ;ears in ower.

!atever te motivation" te adotion of 9tion # could :e uite ro:lematic for Mexico. !itin te context of an effective democratic societ;" tedraw:acks of suc an otion would entail a dramatic increase in imunit;" making a mocker; of te rule of law and fostering a culture of lawlessness.Furter" an accommodation strateg; ma; :e more difficult to acieve tan ?asteneda and Auilar assert. 4e structure and seer num:er of modern

4?9s would make te old =%35/st;le= arrangements muc more difficult to enforce. Moreover" te 4?9s ave exanded teir malicious ortfolios:e;ond drugsU crimes suc as kidnaing and extortion are not integral to teir overall oerations. 'ould the TOs simply gi#e up theirper#asi#e and lucrati#e business networks to concentrate only on drugs shipments to the 6nited 2tates@

*. 5mact on 6 Mexico Defense 3elationsi. %rom the perspecti#e o! impro#ing 62A$exican de!enserelations, Option D would be the worst possible outcome. !eter a Mexican governmentBs willingness to negotiatedirectl; wit te 4?9s stemmed from corrution at te igest levels" institutional weakness" or siml; and effort to reduce violence in Mexico" theimpact would be de#astating to 62A$exican security and de!ense cooperation. 5n suc a case"positi#e relations with the 62 military would be incon#enientfor te Mexican government. 2o i! the nextadministration chose a strategy o! TO accommodation" the $exican go#ernment wouldundoubtedly seek to halt all acti#ates between the 62 and $exican militaryand defense counterarts"and tr; to dismantle any existing institutional linkages. 5n tis scenario" te administration would most likel; order teMexican militar; to focus solel; on i ts traditional missions and sto suorting law enforcement oerations" wic would lace te militar; at odds

wit te 4?9s. !ereas %resident ?alderonBs order to te militar; to work wit teir 6 counterarts resulted in greatl; imroved cooeration" aresidential order to alt an; relations wit te nited 6tates would ave detrimental conseuences for furter colla:oration. nder suc conditionste nited 6tates would seek to maintain institutional militar;/to/militar; ties wile awaiting te return of a government tat would confront te 4?9s.

ooperation would no doubt be limited" at :est" to functional connections suc as disaster relief and :order coordinationissues. During that >sexenio,> the 6nited 2tates would clearly be unwilling to pass in!ormationor intelligenceto Mexico for fear tat suc information would :e assed almost immediatel; to te 4?9s.The $exican militarywould presumably return to its traditional mission to de!end against the improbable threat o!a 62 in#asion.


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uniqueness

6rr negative Nietos administration has stopped showcasing ma=ordrug war victories which means that their uniqueness evidence aout

violence can never e dispositive

Fela;7rown Novemer $3&'($anda" 6enior Fellow of Foreign %olic; #rookings 5nstitute" %D from M54" ?anging teJame or Droing te #all' Mexico@s 6ecurit; and Anti/?rime 6trateg; nder %resident Nieto&" Novem:er *0>-%eOa Nietoadministrationto (e)icos pulic securit! prolems has een its vow of

silence regarding its law enforcement strateg!. Felie ?alder_n loved arading catured narcos in front of 4$

cameras and olding u:lic :riefings on is administration@s anti/crime accomlisments.Although" as detailed :elow" te %eOa Nietoadministration largel! has stopped showcasing apprehended drug traffickers:efore te 4$cameras* the administrations securit! polic! has also come to e dominated ! high;

value targeting. More significantl;" %resident %eOa Nietoand is officials have said little pulicl! as to howthe administrations anti;crime polic! would e defined" oerationali8ed" and imlemented. -hissilence * also mimicked ! (e)ican media in their reduced coverage of criminal

violence* complicates efforts to evaluate te effectiveness of man; of %eOa Nietos securit! andanti;crime policies .

Sinaloa is the 0J(/NAN- cartel now in spite of leadershiparrests* the organi9ation has no challengers* ut preventing Sinaloasplinter is essential to keep the peaceFela;7rown Novemer $3&'($anda" 6enior Fellow of Foreign %olic; #rookings 5nstitute" %D from M54" ?anging teJame or Droing te #all' Mexico@s 6ecurit; and Anti/?rime 6trateg; nder %resident Nieto&" Novem:er *0>-

7 9n Fe:ruar; **" *0>-" after a tirteen/;ear manunt" (e)ico@s secial nav; units" act/7 ing on intelligence from and in close cooeration witte nited 6tates" capturedoauIn 16l +hapo2Ju8mn" the head of the Sinaloa +artel* (e)icosmost powerful drug trafficking organi9ation.> !it is daring escae in a laundr; cart from a Mexican rison in*00>" after seven ;ears in ailU is a:ilit; to evade a determined .6. effort to recature im for more tan a decadeU and is careful cultivation of oweramong local oliticians and of olitical caital among local communities troug andouts and emlo;ment in te drug econom;" 2l ?ao ad

:ecome a oular cult figure" eseciall; among Mexico@s downtrodden. 6ven while on the lam* he managed to turnthe Sinaloa +artel into the worlds most powerful drug trafficking organi8ation (D49"

dominating the .S. drug distriution market " managing smuggling from +olomiato the nited States* and reaching perhaps all the wa! into 2astAsia.*7 Jlorified in narcocorridos(Mexican folk :allads a:out drug traffickers" e also amassed a erson/ al fortune' For:es Maga8ine listed im as te >0t ricest man in Mexico" and>">C+rd in te world" in *0>*" wit a net wort of rougl; 6E> :illionU 7 and as one of te world@s most owerful individuals.+ More tan an; oter"

6l +hapo came to s!moli9e the power " influence" and imunit; of Mexican drug traffickers.And while thee)traordinaril!violent contestationamong Mexican drug trafficking organi8ations that hascharacteri9ed (e)icos criminal marketsince *00, left man! of the drug groups

shattered * splintered* and wiped out * the Sinaloa +artel*also known as te 6inaloa Federation" not

onl! retained* ut also e)panded its power and influence . 4us 2l ?ao@s cature was ailed as adramatic success for .6. and Mexican law enforcement" and as exemlar; of te new :ilateral cooeration emerging after decades of distrust"

susicion" and mutual recrimination. #ut the capture of 6l +hapo*following te u:lici8ed arrests of oter to caos andlieutenants during te current administration of %resident 2nriue %eOa Nieto and te revious administration of Felie ?alder_n" alsoepitomi9es how eas! it is for an anti/crime olic; to :ecome consumed :; a ig/value

targeting osture" and ow difficult it is to adot a more comreensive law enforcement and anti/crime strateg; tat imrovesrule of law" emowers te state" and strengtens te :onds :etween te state and its citi8ens.7 4e eigt ;ears of a :lood:at among Mexican D49sand wit te countr;@s militar; and olice forces generated intense trauma' More tan 0"000 Mexicans and tousands of ?entral Americans ave

died.- %eras as man; as over twent; tousand eole ave disaeared.C Tet 6l +hapos capture ironicall! came atthe time when the Sinaloa +artel appears to have recaptured large parts of(e)icos criminal market" including ?iudad ure8" 4iuana" and Monterre;., 2ven wile cele:rated as a maor victor;" 6l+hapos capture ma! thus still parado)icall! trigger another set of contestations*destaili9e these new fragile alances of power* and set off new infighting . 6everal monts

after te arrest" tat as :; and large not aened so far.?hether it does or not depends on whether the


9/14

Sinaloa +artel will manage to preserve a clear and visile hierarch!of command

and continue to signal its victorious dominance in large parts of (e)icos criminal

markets "so that its local* much weakened* ut not wiped out rivals* such as the

Eu@re9 +artel* the ,ulf +artel* and the Zetas* are not tempted to challenge itsrecent victories. 5t also deends on weter it will continue ursuing te same local entrencment strategies as it did under 2l ?ao.

Altoug under 2l ?ao@s leadersi te

Sinaloa +artel pushed aggressivel! to e)pand its territor!

(one might even call the cartel a revisionist power inserting itself into or initiating conflicts over 4iuana"

Nuevo Laredo" and ?iudad ure8" it did so in wa!s that managed to anchor the organi9ation inlocal areas far etter than other potent (e)ican criminal groups* such as the Zetas"Los ?a:alleros 4emlarios" or La FamIlia Micoacana. /t achieved such entrenchment ! fairl! effectivel!managing the remnants of local rivals Gand ! reducing violence and streamlininge)tortion in areas of its dominance " tus making its suervision of te criminal market less grating to local oulations.9n te oter and" te Setas or te 4emlarios" for examle" merel; sougt to dominate troug unrestrained :rutalit; or unrestrained extortion oftenintolera:le to local oulations.>0

Sinaloa hegemon! is high now the! are the most dominant drugcartel in (e)ico new leadership proves the! have organi9ationalresilience

,ange &3#&'#&'(David" 5n6igt ?rime Anal;sis" 9rgani8ed ?rime in te AmericaBs =Mexico 5dentifies New Face of 6inaloa ?artel=A new leader of (e)ico8s Sinaloa +artel hasreortedl; emergedfollowing te Fe:ruar; arrest of oauin =2l?ao= Ju8man" lending instant notoriet; to a reviousl; unknown mem:er of tis owerful drug trafficking organi8ation. 7 According to informationgiven to Mexican autorities :; a 6 court" 5smael =2l Ma;o= Sam:ada delegated most of te cartelBs oerations in nortern Mexico to Jerman MagaOa%asos" alias =2l %aisa"= no less tan five ;ears ago" reorted 5nfo:ae.7 Desite is ig ranking" ver; little is known a:out MagaOa' no oto of im as

:een released to te u:lic" and e does not aear on a list of te most wanted drug traffickers in Mexico" altoug te nited 6tates as reortedl;reuested is extradition" according to 4erra. MagaOa is allegedl; resonsi:le for overseeing large siments of cocaine to te nited 6tates andcommands a legion of itmen oerating trougout te countr;.7 MagaOa reortedl; kees a low rofile :; aving is artner" 6ergio JarduOo2sco:edo" andle communication wit oter drug traffickers" reorted Diario %resente.7 5n6igt ?rime Anal;sis7 MagaOaBs alleged lacement in te

uer ranks of the Sinaloa +artel //widel! considered the largest and most powerful drugtrafficking organi9ation in the Americas// is likel; to convert im racticall; overnigt from an unknown into one ofte most wanted criminals in Latin America. !ile little is currentl; known a:out im" it is unlikel; tat will remain te case in te coming weeks. 7

Desite te information tat as emerged a:out 2l %aisa" it is important to note that the Sinaloa +artelessentiall! operates like a confederation of criminal organi9ations" and itsleadership is akin to a oard of directors. #ased on te 6 information" (agaOa is undoutedl!

an important figure in the organi9ation" :ut oter leaders suc as 5smael Sam:ada Jarcia" alias =2l Ma;o"= are stillactive and likel; continue to run man; of te cartelBs oerations.7 622 AL69' 6inaloa ?artel News and %rofile7 MagaOaBs reference to andle te6inaloa ?artelBs oerations from :eind te scenes ma; :e a strateg; to deflect unwanted attention from Mexican autorities. 4e former legendar;ead of te cartel" oauin =2l ?ao= Ju8man" was one of te most wanted criminals in te world :efore e was catured :; te Mexican Marines in

Fe:ruar;. -he Sinaloa +artel nevertheless remains the dominant criminal organi9ation

in (e)ico"with cells active in the nited S tates* +olomia* and ,uatemala * amongother countries.

J


10/14

;;;at stratfor ev

-heir ev is all out of conte)t and analogous to citing an Ann Aror studentnewspaper article aout a mugging as evidence that the federal government isliterall! collapsing.

Violence is limited to small regional skirmishes turf wars are largel!settled and an! conflicts will e low;level skirmishesStratfor* -P6/ A-PJ* 5JS-0A-/N,* &3#$&'(4ristan" =MexicoBs Drug !ar'?riminal Jrous 6linter as #osses Fall=

-he Euare9;7eltran e!va Jrgani9ation;os Zetas alliance will egin ad=usting tothe arrestsof $icente ?arrillo Fuentes and Hector #eltran Le;va in te fourt uarter. %ossi:le reactions include witdrawal from te allianceor furter slits witin its constituent arts. 3ater tan su:stantial adustments like tese during te fourt uarter" owever" the memersof the alliance are more likel! to work to hold together . 4is could see su:grous suc as La Linea of teuare8 cartel and Los Ma8atlecos of te #eltran Le;va 9rgani8ation :ecome te allianceBs oints of contact for teir resective grous. 6ould tearrests of $icente ?arrillo Fuentes and Hector #eltran Le;va diminis te overall caa:ilities of teir resective criminal organi8ations" Los Setas ma;

take carge of te general direction of te alliance given tat te cartel as" :; far" te widest reac of an; of te tree mem:ers.7 -he

likelihood of increased violence resulting from the third;quarter arrests alone is

slim .?hile there is a small chance that these captures will weaken the alliance// or

create tat ercetion among its rivals // no rival organi9ations are currentl! capale of mounting aninterregional offensive. 4e 6inaloa Federation" for examle" is too fragmented. Nortwest Mexico" ?iuaua state and te #aioregion are te areas most likel; to see a deterioration of securit; related to te sift in alliance d;namics tis uarter. 7ut an! resulting

violence proal! will e isolated to areas where regional crime osses operatingunder an umrella group like the Sinaloa Federationwill face off with alliance;affiliated ossesfor control of relativel; small territories.An! such fighting in the fourthquarter is unlikel! to draw in (e)ico8s larger entities .


11/14

;;;at hurst evidence

Hou should e e)tremel! skeptical of the alliances argument. -here is not a singlelegitimate news organi9ation that is reporting on it and its ased on a report from

August ! an alternative newspaper in (e)ico called eforma. Like" tis sit is on te

Drudge 3eort and #reit:art and nowere else. 5t is a erfect examle of eole ulling randomunsu:stantiated claims out of teir ass.

-he card actuall! concludes that the! have no idea what the purpose of the meetingwas and it might actuall! reduce violencePurst their author &'< Jrant" Director of Latin American Forecasting" 2xclusive Anal;sis" %olitical 3isk 7 Anal;st" Americas"5H6 Jlo:al 5nsigt" Drug/related violence in Mexico likel; to increase in states were 7 several drug cartels overla& Accessed at 5H6 Jlo:al 5nsigt7 Drug cartel summit A recent develoment is also likel; to ave imlications for violence in Mexico. 5n late August" 7 7 according newsaer 3eforma< on information attri:uted to unidentified sources from =intelligence of te Mexican and 7 7 6 governments P...Q derived from informants of law/enforcement agencies=' tere was a summit of four maor drug/trafficking cartels at 7 7 %iedras Negras" ?oauila. 4e to leaders of tree cartels 110@s and *000@s wen te Julf ?artel was te leading criminal organi8ation in Mexico. 7 Los Setas

:egan as te securit; detail of a former Julf ?artel :oss during te earl; *000@s and over time grew to :ecome an indeendent criminal organi8ation.

/n $3&3 the two crime s!ndicates went to war over lucrative drug territoriesleading to massive shootoutstrougout Mexico articularl; inNortern -amaulipas.7 #eeadings" mutilationsand gor; execution videos :ecame te norm as te two cartels fougt for control. 4e figting resulted in a massive attrition witin te two cartels as

well as oters tat took sides in te figt leading to ;ounger inexerienced and ras cartel :osses taking te lead. -he communique

wic was leaked on 4uesda;warns of an internal cleanupwitin te two organi8ations in order to ring

aout peace .

Nietos reforms will limit Zeta and ,ulf +artel violence6l niversal &3#&"#&'(=6tratfor %raises Actions of Mexico Against ?artels=-he document adds that the original ,ulf cartel has continued to fragmentto te extenttat numerous" oft/cometing grous" all of tem largel; referred to as factions of te Julf cartel" sometimes can :e found oerating in te sameneig:orood of a given cit;. Desite tis decentrali8ation" under te management of tese various factions" organi8ed criminal activit; in 4amaulias

state as continued aace. /f government pressure persists* (e)icos other criminalorgani9ations*even cartels such as os Zetas that have retained consideralepower and a cohesive structure"will meet the same splintered fate as the ,ulfcartel. For tese grous" fragmentation is a natural result of rolonged and consistent government ressure.B

Alliance actuall! proves our Q argumentsSmith &&;% (#enamin" =4e 2nd of te Drug !arG9r a New ?artel of ?artels"= Dissent Maga8ine"

www.dissentmaga8ine.org)onlineVarticles)mexico/end/of/drug/war/or/new/cartel/of/cartels

Jn August $G* oth .S. and (e)ican intelligence sources reported thatrepresentatives of four ma=or cartels had met to sign a pact of alliance . Held in une in te

:order town of %iedras Negras" te meeting ad :rougt togeter te ?rtel de alisco Nueva Jeneraci_n (?NJ" te ure8 cartel" te #eltrn Le;vacartel" and te Setas.7 4e reresentatives included Nemesio 2l Menco& 9seguera ?ervantes" te ead of te ?NJU $icente el $icero;& ?arrilloFuentes" te leader of te ure8 ?artelU 9mar 4reviOo Morales" alias S/-*"& te suosed ead of te SetasU and Fausto el ?ao& 5sidro Me8 Flores"

a ke; la;er in te #eltrn Le;va organi8ation. According to the reports* memers of the Sinaloa cartelwere asent from the so;called 1narcocumre*2 generating speculation that thefour other cartels sought to all! and move in on Sinaloa territor! .7 4e 2nd of te Drug !ar7-he (e)ican government has spun the alliance as evidence that 5resident 5eOa

Nietos securit! polic! has succeeded in deilitating the cartels . According to 9mar Fa;ad"

resident of te 6enate@s 6ecurit; ?ommission" the pact was 1a sign of weakness among the (e)icancartels due to the persecution of organi9ed crime ! the federal government andthe cooperation and coordination with states and municipalities.2 Fa!ad alsopredicted that the alliance* like man! of those signed efore* would not last long .1-hese alliances have not worked for them in the pastecause the! etra! oneanother . -here is almost alwa!s someone who wants complete hegemon!.27 /n

man! of the (e)ican newspapers* =ournalists have marshalled a persuasive list of

imprisoned or dead capos to ack up the governments assertions . 9ver te ast two ;ears"%resident %eOa Nieto as managed to imrison te leaders of te Setas" te Julf ?artel" and te 6inaloa ?artel. 9ter ke; narcos" like Na8ario el MasLoco& Moreno Jon8le8 ave died in confrontations wit government forcesU oters still" like uan os] el A8ul& 2sarrago8a Moreno" ave exired ofnatural causes.


13/14

link deate

Armentano is top level rhetorical without man! warrants doesnt address thediversification* splintering* or power =ocke!ing arguments onl! sa!s that it

would reduce revenues which is shocker; J A,

egali9ation doesnt kill the cartels the! still have other revenuesources to e)tract profits off of ut the aff causes a ig short;term hitongmire &&(6;lvia" former officer and investigative secial agent in te Air Force" =Legali8ation !on@t Kill te ?artels"= New Tork45mes" une >" www.n;times.com)*0>>)0,)>1)oinion)>1longmire.tmlVr0

nfortunatel;" it@s not tat eas;. (ari=uana legali9ation has man! merits" :ut itwould do little tohinder the long;term economics of the cartelsG and the violent toll the! take on(e)ican societ! .4For one ting" if mari=uana makes up B3 percent of the cartels profits* that still leaves another '3 percent " wic includes te sale of metametamine" cocaine" and :rown/owder and :lack/

tar eroin. /f mari=uana were legali9ed* the cartels would still make huge profits fromthe sale of these other drugs .7 %lus" tere@s no reason te cartels couldn@t enter te legal market for te sale of mariuana" asorgani8ed crime grous did in te nited 6tates after te reeal of %roi:ition.7 6till" legali9ation would deliver a

significant short;term hit to the cartelsG if drug trafficking were the onl! activit!the! were engaged in. #ut cartels derive a growing slice of teir income from oter illegal activities. 6ome exerts on organi8ed crimein Latin America" like 2dgardo #uscaglia" sa; tat cartels earn ust alf teir income from drugs.

+artels wont take the change l!ing down will intensif! violence tomake up for lost revenueFela;7rown &$($anda" =9rgani8ed ?riminals !onBt Fade Awa;"= #rookings" August"

www.:rookings.edu)researc)articles)*0>*)0)drugs/crime/fel:a::rown

Organized crime groups who stand to be displaced !rom the drug trade by legalization can

hardly be expected to take the change l!ing down. ather, they may intensif! their

violent power struggles o#er remaining illegal economies" such as the smuggling o! othercontraband or migrants, prostitution, extortion, and kidnapping.To mitigate their fnancial

losses

" te; ma! also seek to take over the lack econom!" wic oerates outside te tax s;stem. 5f te;succeed in organi8ing street life in tis informal sector" teir olitical ower over societ; will :e greater tan ever.

?e control the iggest internal link to conflict escalation ; Sinaloa hasthe capacit! to wage all;out war(urra! et. al &&(?ad Murra;" Aslee ackson Amanda ?. MiralrIo" Nicolas 2iden" Aril *,t *0>>"2lliott 6cool of 5nternational


Altoug te 2inaloacartel does not often target civilians" it is the most #iolent DTO in C terms o! o#erallcasualties .,C5t as targeted undreds of olice officers and its leader" 2l ?ao&7 Ju8mn" is widel; tougt to ave caused a recent usurge in

violence after :reaking a truce 7 wit te oter maor criminal grous in te countr;.,,The !eud between the 2inaloa anduarez C organizations is the reason that uarez is the most #iolent city in $exico, and

according to some C accounts, the entire world.7 EF The 2inaloa cartel0s huge financialresources make it a ma"or threat C to the go#ernment" because they are able to corruptlarge numbers o! local, state, and !ederal C go#ernment o4cials. 4is was revealed in several ig rofile casesin recent ;ears.E=The C 2inaloa cartel is constantly trying to expand its territory into thattraditionally held by other C cartels" articularl; in uare8" and tis is a maor cause of muc of te violence.7The 2inaloa

cartel has the greatest capacity to wage Rall;out war because they ha#e !ar C moremoney than the other DTOs. Ju8mn is also more focused on winning te favor and tacit 7 rotection of te oulace" and tus ismore involved in te drugs trade tan kidnaing" and 7 refers to :ri:e rater tan confront autorities.,1 However" in man; wa;s tis makes te6inaloa 7 cartel more dangerous to te Jovernment in Mexico. 5ts use of :ri:es can make local state and 7 even federal law enforcement unrelia:le.Furtermore" te 6inaloa organi8ation s outreac to te 7 civilian oulation makes it even arder for te government to gain information a:out


14/14

Ju8mn. 7 5n addition" the massi#e strength o! the 2inaloa cartel makes an e#entual peace all themore C allusi#e . In the e#ent that the go#ernment would try to reduce the #iolence throughtalks with C cartels, the 2inaloa organization would be unlikely to take them seriously.The

go#ernment has C little to o7er big organizations like 2inaloa, which already en"oy near

uncontested control o#er C the areas in which they operate.F

And* that flips the proailit! of state collapse and instailit! whichlink turns the aff7eittel* &%< Anal;st in Latin American Affairs (une" =MexicoBs Drug 4rafficking 9rgani8ations' 6ource and 6coe of te $iolence="fas.org)sg)crs)row)3->C,.df

(s the DTOs ha#e !ractured and more organizations #ie !or control o! tra4cking routes, thele#el o! inter- and intra-cartel #iolence has spiked. 5nter/DTO #iolence is used when the cartelsfght one another to dominate tra4cking routes. #esides inter/D49 violence (:etween te different organi8ations"there has been widespread #iolence within the organizations, as !actions battle in successionstrugglesto relace fallen or arrested leaders. 4e succession :attles are astened :;te drug war victories :; te Mexican government. 5ndescri:ing te violence resulting from te elimination of a leader" one o:server refers to internal vacanc; cains& tat result wen an organi8ation issuee8ed :; te government and tere is great uncertaint; a:out ow te leader will :e relaced (eiter troug internal succession or external

relacement. 5n some cases" a weakened DTO will be attacked by other DTOs in a !eeding !renzyB until

the uncertainty o! succession is resol#ed .>01 4us highly charged #iolence may result from

as!mmetric weakening of competitive organi9ations .>>0 Intra-DTO #iolence is used toassert leadership inside the cartel or to impose organizational discipline and lo;alt;.The #iolentresponse o! the DTOs to the go#ernment/s aggressi#e security strategy is a third keyelement leading to escalation. Jun :attles :etween government forces and te D49s are regular occurrences. And wit teexansion of democratic luralism" D49s are figting te state to reassert teir imunit; from te ustice s;stem.

Jrgani9ational splintering causes increased violence(urra! et. al &&(?ad Murra;" Aslee ackson Amanda ?. MiralrIo" Nicolas 2iden" Aril *,t*0>>"2lliott 6cool of 5nternational Affairs)5nter/American Drug A:use ?ontrol ?ommission'?astone 3eort"tts'))elliott.gwu.edu)sites)elliott.gwu.edu)files)downloads)acad)las)mexico/mariuana/0>>>>.df" Mexican Drug 4rafficking 9rgani8ations and Mariuana' 4e %otential 2ffects of.6. Legali8ation

The 2inaloa carteland 4 iiuana cartel might splinter into smaller groups .5n addition" the losso!C more than +89 o! re#enue would probably !orce them to downsize their operations. GikeanyC large business going through downsizing, employees will likely be shed frst in order tomaintainC proftability. ;H8These !ormer DTO operati#es will likely not return to earning a

legitimate C income" :ut rater will indeendentl; find new revenue sources in a manner similarto teir7 emlo;ers.There!ore it is possible that the legalization o! mari"uana in the 6nited2tates could C cause territories currently under the control o!te 2inaloacartel and 4iuana

cartel to ecome4 more violent than the! are toda!. 4is is trou:ling" as 6inaloa" #aa

?alifornia" 6onora" and7 ?iuaua states are alread; among te most violent areas of Mexico.>*>

sinaloa--revenue shift da

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