singapore q3 2019 - edmund tie & company · ocr (suburban areas outside the ccr and rcr) •...

HOUSING REPORT

NOVEMBER 2019

SINGAPORE Q3 2019Uneven performance despite surge in demand for private residential properties

1EDMUND TIE RESEARCH

Market summary

Key market indicators

• According to flash estimates from theMinistry of Trade and Industry (MTI),Singapore’sGDP grewby an estimated0.1percentinQ32019whichremained,remainingunchanged from the0.1percentgrowth inQ2, , according toflashestimates from the Ministry of Tradeand Industry (MTI), signalling continualweaknessintheeconomy.

• Based on advanced estimates, theseasonallyadjustedunemploymentrateforresidentswasuproseslightlyby0.1percentagepointsto3.1percentq-o-qinQ22019.However,retrenchmentshavenotincreased,butremainedlowat2,300.

• Housing loans fell for the 8th straightmonthby1.1percenty-o-y,asdemandfor housing loans continues toweakensince the latest coolingmeasureswereintroducedinJuly2018.

Investment sales - Government Land Sales (GLS) / Private collective sales sites

• Investmentsalesvaluedoubledto$1.9bnon a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basisduetomoresiteswithhigherlandpricesbeingsold.

• GLSsitesmadeupbulk(or97.8percent)oftotalresidentialinvestmentsaleswithfoursitessold-–thelargesttransactionwas for the Tan Quee Lan Street sitesoldfor$800.2m(or$1,535psfppr)toGuocoLandandHongLeongJV.Thissitewill align strategically with the GuocoMidtownprojectacrossBeachRoad,alsodevelopedbyGuocoLand.

60%52% 51%

52% 47% 57%57% 47% 42%

33% 31%35%

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Resale/Sub Sale (LHS) New Sale (LHS)URA non-landed price index (RHS)

Q1 2009 = 100

Source:URA,EDMUNDTIEResearch

Figure 1: Private non-landed home sales volume (excluding ECs) and URA non-landed price index

• Intheprivateinvestmentmarket,followingthecollectivesaleofasmall5-unitapartmentdevelopmentatSophiaViewinQ22019,anotherenblocsiteatPhoenixRoad,comprising24apartmentsand12shops,wassoldfor$42.6m(or$630psfpprafterfactoringintheestimateddifferentialpremium).Thesitehasadevelopmentpotentialofabout80unitsbasedonanaverageunitsizeof950sqft.

Private non-landed sales volume and price index (excluding executive condominiums (ECs))

• NewsalesinQ32019grewsignificantlyby49.2percentto3,198units (Figure 1), which even exceeded the 2,736 units in Q32018whentherewasabuyingfrenzyontheeveningbeforetheimplementationof the latest coolingmeasureson6 July2018.However,therewasadeclineinresalevolume(comprisingresaleand sub sales)by8.5per centq-o-q to1,855units. Totalnon-landedsalesvolumeinQ32019amountedto5,053units,slightlyhigher than the lastpeak inQ32018of 4,988units.when thecoolingmeasureswereintroduced.

• UrbanRedevelopmentAuthority(URA)indicatedthatprivatenon-landedpricesroseby1.3percentq-o-q,slowerthanthe2.0percent inQ22019. Pricesof non-landedproperties in allmarketsegmentsgrew,ledbythecorecentralregion(CCR)with2.0percentq-o-q,followedbyrestofcentralregion(RCR)with1.3percentandoutsidecentralregion(OCR)with0.8percent.


New non-landed project launches

• Although there was a decline in thenumberofnewprojectlaunches,thetotalnumberofunitsfromnewprojectsandunits released for sale almost doubledto nearly 4,600 units and 2,300 unitsrespectively due to the launch of twomegaprojects(morethan1,000units).

• RCRhad themostnumberof launcheswithsixnewprojectstotalling2,615unitsinQ3,more than the 1,731units fromeightprojectsinQ2.Aroundhalfofthese2,615unitswerereleasedforsale.

• Sell-down rates of the new projectlaunches rangedbetween2.8and33.6percent,withAvenueSouthResidenceattainingthehighestsell-downrateof34percent (or361of1,074units)despitebeingamegaproject(above1,000units).Thismaybedue to thestrongproductand locational attributeswith its closeproximityproximity to the CBDCentralBusinessDistrict(CBD).

Demand analysis and buyer profile

• With higher new unit prices, buyersbecamemore price conscious as therewasahigherproportionof transactionsbelow$1.5m.Inparticular,theproportionof new sales between $1m and $1.5mrosefrom40.7percentinQ2to47.1percent inQ3. As such, this also indicatedthatsmallerunitswereindemand,withtheincreaseinproportionofunitssmallerthan500sqftaswellas700to1,000sqft.

• Itwas similar in the resalemarket,withamarginal increase inproportionofresaleunitspricedbelow$1m.Nevertheless,mostoftheresaletransactionswereforunitspricedfrom$1mto$1.5m,wherebybuyerswereabletopurchasebiggerunitsintheresalemarket,ascomparedtothatinthenewsalemarket.

• The proportion of non-landed sales volume to Singaporeans(SCs)andForeigners (NPRs) rose inQ3,while thatofSingaporePermanentResidents(SPRs)declinedfrom16.0percentto13.0percent.Amongthetopsourcesofforeignbuyers,increaseinsalesvolumewasonlyformainlandChinesebuyers,whichgrewby17.2percentq-o-q.ThismaybeattributedtoSingapore’sreputationasasafeinvestmenthavenandhomepurchasesinSingaporecanbeconsideredasahedgeagainstrisks,amidthepoliticalsituationinHongKong.

• FortheNPRs,theCCRcontinuedtobetheirpreferredchoiceoflocation.Ontheotherhand,SCsandSPRspreferreddevelopmentsintheRCRandOCRthatwerepricedattractivelyandstrategicallylocated,withmorethan90.0percentofthetransactedunitsinthenewlaunchespurchasedbythesetwogroupsofbuyers.

• SalesvolumeofbuyerswithHousing&DevelopmentBoard(HDB)addresses fell by 3.4per cent q-o-q to 1,232units inQ22019afteranincreaseof33.2percentinQ1,resultinginadeclineinproportionofbuyerswithHDBaddressesto29.5percent.Whilebulkofthesalesvolumewereforunitspricedfrom$1mto$1.5m,therewasanincreaseinproportionoflargerunitswithhigherpriceranges,whichweremostlikelyforowneroccupation.

Outlook

Sincethestartof2019,approximately41newprojectscomprisingmore than 12,000 units have been launched, with an estimatedaveragesell-downrateof27.0percentasatQ3.Anadditional2,500to3,500unitsisanticipatedtobelaunchedintheremainingquarter.Withtotalnewsalesvolumeoverthepastthreequarters likelytoexceed7,000units,newsalesareexpectedtobewithinourearlierforecastof8,000to10,000unitsfor2019.


PRIVATE NON-LANDED DEMAND ANALYSIS:

I) New sales market1

i) SALES VOLUME

• WithasurgeinunitsreleasedforsaleinQ32019,totalnewsalesvolumeinQ32019roseby49.2percentq-o-qto3,198units.Onay-o-ybasis,thiswasa16.9percentincreasefromthe2,736unitsinQ32018,whentherewasabuyingfrenzyonthenightbeforetheimplementationofthecoolingmeasureson6July2018.

• Allthreemarketsegmentsrecordedgrowthinnewsales,withthelargestgrowthintheOCR(Table1),whichmaybeduetoprojectsbeingpricedattractively,hencedrawingbuyersintothemarketwiththelargevarietyofoptions.

CCR (main prime areas including the Central Business District - CBD)

• Nearly50.0percentincreaseq-o-qofinunitsreleasedforsale,leadingtomoreunitsbeingsoldasaresult,withaveragesell-downratesgrowingfrom4.6percentinQ2to7.8percent(Table2).

• Dunearn386wasthebest-performingnewproject,sellingsixofthe35units(or17.1percent).Transactedunitsofthefreeholddevelopmentwerepricedbetween$2,446to$2,537psf.

ii) NEW PROJECT LAUNCHES AND SELL-DOWN RATE

Despiteadeclineinthenumberofnewprojectlaunches,therewasanincreaseinnumberofunitsreleasedforsale,withthelaunchofmajorprojectsinQ3.Thisalsoledtoagrowthinsell-downratesofthesenewlaunches,asbuyersareprovidedwithmoreoptions,althoughtherewastheHungryGhostMonthinAugust.

Market segment Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q-o-Q change (%)

CCR 156 176 12.8

RCR 1,094 1,530 39.9

OCR 893 1,492 67.0

Islandwide 2,143 3,198 49.2

Table 1: New sales volume by market segment (Q2 and Q3 2019)


1 Includesbothresaleandsubsale


RCR (mainly city fringe areas outside the CCR)

• ContinuingthetrendinQ2,thenumberofunitsreleasedforsalerosefurtherinQ3,growingby75.0percentq-o-q(Table2).Assuch,thesell-downratealsoincreasedto26.6percentasthereweremoreoptionsinthismarketsegmentandthestrategiclocationofbeinglocationinthecityfringewasfavouredbybuyers.

• Sell-downratesofnewlaunchesinQ3rangedfrom6.8percentto33.6percent,withOnePearlBankandAvenueSouthResidenceattainingsell-downratesexceeding25.0percent.Forbothofthesebothprojectswhichhavecomprises774and1,074unitsrespectively,theyareconsideredwelltaken-upamidthenumerousnewlaunchesinrecentquarters.Thesetwoprojectswereconsideredattractivelypricedbasedontheircityfringelocation,goodeasyaccessibilitytoamenitiesandtransport,aswellastheoverallproductquality,notablyOnePearlBank’srenovation-zeroconcept,whichisabenefitforinvestors.

OCR (suburban areas outside the CCR and RCR)

• DespiteonlytwoprojectslaunchedinQ3,thenumberofunitsreleasedforsalewasstill43.4percenthigherthanthatinQ2.Additionally,averagesell-downratealsoimprovedby7.3percentagepointsonaq-o-qbasis(Table2).

• Theimprovementinsell-downratewasboostedbythesalesatParcClematis,whichachievedasell-downrateof29.6percentagainstthetotalof1,468unitsatthedevelopment.Whencomparedtothe665unitsreleasedforsaleattheproject,thetake-upratewassignificantlyhigherat65.3percent.Althoughtheprojecthadmorethan1,000units,thesell-downratewasdeemedtobeencouraging,,attributedtotheattractivelocationinthematureClementiareaandneartosituatednearprestigiouseducationalinstitutions,directconnectivitytotransportationnodesandamenities,alongwithaswellasawiderangeofcommunalfacilities.

No. of new projects launched

(total project units)Total no. of units released for sale

No. of units sold from unit release

Average sell-down rate based on total project units

Market segment Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019

CCR 4(369) 4(451) 196 293 17 35 4.6% 7.8%

RCR 8(1,731) 6(2,615) 732 1,281 321 696 18.5% 26.6%

OCR 4(654) 2(1,504) 489 701 141 435 21.6% 28.9%

Total 16 (2,754) 12 (4,570) 1,417 2,275 479 1,166 17.4% 25.5%

Table 2: Sell-down rate of newly launched projects



iii) NEW UNIT BEDROOM TYPE AND SIZE

• Smallerunitsaccountedforbulk(or81.7per cent) of total new sales (Figure 2),whichmaybeduetothemoreaffordablepricequantum.Proportionofallunitsizesdeclined, except for non-landed unitssmallerthan500sqft(13.6percent inQ2to15.1percentinQ3)andunitsizesfrom700to1,000sqft(30.3percentinQ2to33.5percentinQ3).

iv) PRICE RANGE OF NEW UNITS

• With the increase in proportion ofsmallerunitsbeingsold,mostofthenewsalesinQ3wereofmoreattractivepricequantum. As such, therewas a higherproportionofunitspricedunder$1.5m,particularly forunitsbetween$1mand$1.5m, with the proportion growingsubstantiallyfrom40.7percentinQ2to47.1percentinQ3(Figure3).

• Proportionofunitsofhigherpricerangesdeclinedonaq-o-qbasis,asbuyersandinvestorsremainedpriceconscious.

2Asaguide,theaverageunitsizefornewprivateresidentialprojectlaunchesbynumberofbedroomsisasfollows:i)studiounitisbelow450sqft;ii)1-bedroomunitrangesfrom500to650sqft;iii)2-bedroomunitrangesfrom600to900sqft;iv)3-bedroomunitrangesfrom900to1,200sqft.

15% 15% 11% 17% 12% 19% 15% 11% 14% 8% 12% 12% 15% 17% 17% 14% 15%

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Less than 500 sq ft 500 sq ft to 700 sq ft 700 sq ft to 1,000 sq ft1,000 sq ft to 1,500 sq ft 1,500 sq ft to 2,000 sq ft Greater than 2,000 sq ft

64%

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Less than $1m $1m to $1.5m $1.5m to $2m $2m to $3m Greater than $3m



Figure 2: New sales of non-landed units by floor area2

Figure 3: New sales of non-landed units by price range


3Includesbothresaleandsubsale,andexcludesECs.


Figure 4: New sales of non-landed units by price range and market segment (Q2 2019 and Q3 2019)

• Acrossthethreemarketsegments,therewereincreasesinproportionofunitspricedabove$2mintheRCR(Figure4).ThiswaslargelyduetothelaunchofAvenueSouthResidence,with26ofsuchunitssoldforunitsizesbetween1,000and1,500sqft,aswellasthesaleof32unitsatSkyEvertonthathadsizeslargelyrangingfrom700to1,000sqft.

II) Resale market3

i) SALES VOLUME

• Contrary to the surge in new salesvolume, resale volumedeclined by 8.5percentq-o-qto1,855units,areversalfromthe22.0percentgrowthinQ2.

• The decrease was observed in allthree market segments, with the RCRregisteringthelargestfalldeclineof10.7per cent (Table 3). Thismaybedue tothe increase innew launches, resultinginbuyersturningtothenewsalemarketinsteadwithmoreoptionsofnewunitsbeingavailable.

No. of resale transactions

Market segment Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q-o-Q change (%)

CCR 463 428 -7.6

RCR 600 536 -10.7

OCR 964 891 -7.6

Islandwide 2,027 1,855 -8.5

Table 3: Number of resale transactions (Q2 and Q3 2019)



• With the decline in resale volume, themarketshareofresaleunitsfellfrom48.6oftotalsales inQ2to36.7percent,thelowest sinceQ42013,when themarketshareofresaleunitswasjust27.3percent.

ii) PRICE RANGE OF RESALE UNITS

• Proportionofpricerangesformostresaleunits remained relatively unchangedq-o-q, except for a slight increase inproportionofresaleunitslowerthan$1mfrom23.8to24.9percentinQ3(Figure5).

25% 26% 29% 25% 26% 28% 28% 25% 27% 28% 28% 27% 29% 25% 24% 24% 25%

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Figure 5: Resale non-landed property sales by price range

Figure 6: Resale non-landed property sales by price range and market segment (Q2 and Q3 2019)

• Nevertheless,most(or32.8percent)oftheresaletransactionswereofunitspricedbetween$1mand$1.5m.Forthispricerange,therewasanincreaseinproportionoftransactedunitsintheOCR(Figure6),wherebybuyerswereabletopurchasebiggerunits(i.e.1,000to1,500sqft)intheresalemarketascomparedtothe700to1,000sqftunitsinthenewsalemarket.

• Additionally,therewasalsoanincreaseinproportionofunitsintheCCRthatwerepricedabove$2m.MostofsuchunitsweretransactionsfromnewerdevelopmentsthathaveobtainedtheCertificateofStatutoryCompletion(hencedeemedasresaletransactions)suchasSouthBeachResidencesandNouvel18.ForNouvel18,saleoftheunitsonlycommencedinJuly2019,withtransactionpricesexceeding$3mandunitpricesrangingfrom$3,231to$3,867psf.


73% 73% 68% 72% 75% 73% 75% 74% 75% 74% 73% 77% 78% 78% 78% 78% 80%

20% 20%23%

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Company Foreigner (NPR) Singapore Permanent Residents (SPR) Singaporean

246222 233

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Mainland China India Indonesia Malaysia USA Others



Figure 7: Proportion of non-landed sales by residential status

Figure 8: Transaction volume by NPRs

III) Buyer profile4

i) SALES VOLUME

• With sales volume increasing for thesecondconsecutivequarter,mainlyfromthenewsales,therewasaq-o-qincreasein proportion of total sales volume bySCsfrom77.8percentto79.6percent(Figure7).

• Similarly, total sales volume by NPRsrosesignificantly,leadingtoagrowthinproportionoftotalsalesvolumebyNPRsfrom5.9percentto7.1percent.

• However,salesvolumebySPRsdeclinedmarginally by 1.5 per cent after twoconsecutive quarters of increase,resultinginadecreaseof3.0percentagepointsinproportionofsalesvolume.

NPR BUYERS BY NATIONALITY

• SalesvolumebyNPRssurgedto361units,a46.7increasefromthe246unitsinQ2,despitethehigherABSDratestaggedtopurchasesbyforeigners(Figure8).

4ExcludesECs.


• Amongthetopsourcesofforeignbuyers,only the sales volume to of mainlandChinesebuyersincreasedfrom58unitsinQ2to68unitsandaccountedfor18.8percentof total salesvolumebyNPRs(Figure9).Althoughthiswasmuchlowerthan the peak of 46.6 per cent in Q32018,mainlandChinabuyers remainedthe top source of foreign purchasersin Singapore, which may be due toSingapore being considered as a safeinvestmenthavenandhomepurchasesin Singapore were deemed to be ahedgeagainstrisks,particularlywiththeongoingsocialunrestinHongKong.

35% 41%34% 31%

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Mainland China India Indonesia Malaysia USA Others


Figure 9: Proportion of sales by nationality


Figure 10: Non-landed residential property sales by price range and residential status (Q2 and Q3 2019)

• OthertopsourcesofforeignbuyersincludedUSA(6.1percent);Indonesia(4.4percent)andMalaysia(1.4percent).

• Additionally,therewasalsoagrowingproportionofforeignbuyersfromothernationalities(includingunspecifiedcountries),ofwhichNPRscomprised68.4percentoftotalsalesinwhichcomprised68.4percentoftotalsalestoNPRsinQ32019.

ii) UNIT PRICE RANGE

• TheproportionofpurchasesbySCsandSPRsofallpricerangeslargelyremainedunchanged,exceptforanincreaseintheproportionofSCspurchasingunitspricedabove$3m,aswellasSPRsandNPRspurchasingunitspricedbetween$2mand$3m(Figure10).

• Increasesinsalesvolumeforallthreegroupsofbuyers(SCs,SPRsandNPRs)wereobservedforpurchasesoflowerpriceranges(lowerthan$1.5m).Outofwhich,salesvolumebyNPRspriced$1mto$1.5mgrewthemostinQ3,morethandoublingthe43unitsinQ2to102units.


21% 54% 75%

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Marina OneResidences

MartinModern

Haus onHandy

AvenueSouth

Residences

One PearlBank

Parc Esta ParcClematis

TheFlorence

Residences

Treasure atTampines

SCs SPRs NPRs

CCR RCR OCR


Figure 11: Top three new selling new projects by market segment and residential status in Q3 2019

iii) TOP SELLING NEW LAUNCHES BY RESIDENTIAL STATUS

•WithSCsandSPRsbeingpriceconscious,new developments in the RCR andOCR that were attractively priced andstrategically located were preferred(Figure11),asmorethan90.0percentoftheunitsinthesenewlaunchessoldinQ3werepurchasedbySCsandSPRs.

•However, NPRs preferred high-endunits located in the CCR, with primelocational attributes, proximity to theCBD and quality furnishings and fittingsoftheprojects.Despitefreeholdprojectsgenerallymoreinfavour,HausonHandy,a 99-year leasehold development, wasalsooneofthetopsellingnewprojectstoNPRs.Thiscanbeattributedtotheprojectbeingnear locatedclosetothetoDhobyGhautMRTinterchangestationandprimeshoppingbeltoftheOrchardarea.

IV) Buyers with HDB addresses for Q2 20195

Another significant group of privatehomebuyers include HDB upgraders andinvestors who are living in HDB flats –comprisingSCsandSPRs.

5ItisnotedthatsinceQ12019,therewasasignificantincreaseofthebuyer’saddressindicatorbeinglistedas“N.A”likelyduetoatiminglaginupdatingthisfield,especiallyfornewsales.InQ22019,thenumberof“N.A”indicatorsincreasedandaccountedformorethan40percentoftotalnewsaleswhich,ifincorporated,wouldlikelyskewtheanalysis.Assuch,thissectionwillanalyseandusesalesdatafrompreviousquarterinviewofthistimingissue.


i) SALES VOLUME

•Sales volume of buyers with HDBaddresses declined by 3.4 per centq-o-q to 1,232 units after a 33.2 percent increase inQ1. This led to a fall inproportionofbuyerswithHDBaddressesagainstthetotaltransactionvolumefrom37.8percentinQ1to29.5percentinQ22019(Figure12).

• Whiletherewasasignificantdecreaseofnearly15.0percentagepointsinproportionof buyers with HDB addresses for newsales,therewasonlyamarginaldeclineof1.6percentagepointsforresaleunits(Table4). Thismaybedue to resale propertiesbeing more value-for-money (largerunitsforthesamepurchaseprice),whichresultedintheattractivenessofresaleunitstoHDBupgradersandinvestors.

HDB N.A Private

Type of sale Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

Newsale 43.3% 28.4% 21.3% 35.9% 35.4% 35.7%

Resale 32.3% 30.7% 2.7% 3.9% 65.0% 65.4%

All sale 37.8% 29.5% 12.1% 20.4% 50.0% 50.1%

Table 4: Non-landed unit sales by purchasers’ addresses and type of sale



Figure 12: Non-landed unit sales by purchasers’ addresses


ii) UNIT PRICE RANGE

•Bulk (or42.4percent)of the total salesvolume by buyers with HDB addresseswere for units priced $1m to $1.5m,whichwasaslightincreasefromthe41.3per cent in Q2 2019 (Figure 13). Apartfromthispricerange, therewerehigherproportionsoftransactedunitsofhigherpriceranges(i.e.$1.5mto$2mand$2mto$3m),whichweremainlyforlargerunitsofaround1,000to1,500sqftthatweremostlikelybeforowneroccupation.

61%

41%49% 46% 43%

51% 47%36% 36% 38% 39% 36%

44% 40% 45%37% 31%

29%

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41%42%

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Figure 13: Non-landed unit sales by quantum (buyers with HDB addresses)

6ExcludesbuyerswithHDBaddresseswhoareyettobeupdatedintothesystemandarecurrentlylabelledasNA.

iii) TOP SELLING NEW PROJECTS TO BUYERS WITH HDB ADDRESSES

•In the new sale market, while newprojects in the OCR remained highly infavour, developments in the RCR werealso popular among buyers with HDBaddresses.Outofthetopfivenewsellingnew projects inQ2, threewere locatedin the RCR (Table 5). Prices of mosttransactions in the RCR ranged from$1mto$1.5m,whichweremainlyforthesmaller units. Similarly, transacted unitsofthenewprojectsintheOCRwerealsolargely to be purchased as investmentproperties, with a low pricelow-pricequantums (below$1m) and smaller unitsizes(lessthan700sqft).

Top five selling projects in new market by district (market segment/number of units sold)

TreasureatTampines(OCR/60)

ParcEsta(RCR/48)

StirlingResidences(RCR/45)

RiverfrontResidences(OCR/40)

SkyEverton(RCR/35)

Table 5: Top selling projects and districts of buyers with HDB addresses (Q2 2019)


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Editor:

Leong Kin MunAssistant Manager Research+65 6393 [email protected]

Ong Choon Fah Chief Executive Officer+65 6393 2318 [email protected]

Author:

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singapore q3 2019 - edmund tie & company · ocr (suburban areas outside the ccr and rcr) •...

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