SINGAPORE REPORTCONTRUCTION MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE

ISSUE NO. 76 | DECEMBER 2016

NEXUS INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL (SINGAPORE)PROJECT FEATURE

|SINGAPORE REPORT

DECEMBER 2016

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Courtesy of Nexus International School (Singapore) Pte Ltd

The new Nexus International School (Singapore) campus will be situated at Aljunied Road and will have a capacity of 2,000 students, up from the current site capacity of 1,200 at Ulu Pandan. Designed by renowned international architects Broadway Malyan, this project will be Singapore’s latest state-of-the-art international school and become the flagship Nexus campus. It will boast cutting-edge modern facilities with a strong environmental focus, an Innovation Hub, flexible learning spaces, numerous play areas, a state of the arts field, a 50m Olympic-sized swimming pool. Broadway Malyan’s architectural vision embodies the ethos and values of the school, offers quality design that is also sensitive to local customs and culture. It is scheduled to be completed in the first half of 2020.

RLB is proud to be the quantity surveyor of this project that is committed to innovative education and personalised learning.

MARKET TRENDS

SINGAPORE ECONOMY

SINGAPORE REPORT | DECEMBER 2016

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Donald Trump’s victory as US President, the ‘Brexit’ referendum, and the slowing Chinese economy are all impacting Singapore’s economic growth and business sentiment. In 4Q 2016, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew robustly by 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), faster than the 1.2% growth in the preceding quarter. The annual economic growth expanded by 2.0%, slightly faster than the 1.9% growth in 2015.

The manufacturing sector was the best performer as its growth leaped to 11.0% in 4Q 2016, from 1.8% in 3Q 2016. The construction sector contracted by 2.8%, extending the 2.2% contraction in 3Q 2016. Growth was weighed down primarily by sluggish private sector construction activities, which shrank on the back of a decline in private residential and private industrial works.

Consumer prices posted the smallest fall in two years in October during 4Q 2016 as it fell 0.1% from a year ago. This is the 24th straight month of decline, according to the Department of Statistics. CPI- All Items rose to 0.2% in December 2016, performing slightly better than 0.0% the month before, on the back of a larger increase in private road transport cost. Overall, the declines in housing & utilities and transportation costs offset the rise in food and education prices, causing the overall consumer price index (CPI) to shrink by 0.5% y-o-y.

Both the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said global oil prices are expected to increase in 2017, and that all-items or headline CPI has troughed and is projected to pick up to 0.5-1.5% in 2017, from around -0.5% in 2016, largely reflecting the rise in private road transport cost due to the expiry of a road tax rebate for petrol vehicles,

higher petrol prices and the upward revision of car park charges with effect from 1 December 2016.

Against the backdrop of a slowing local workforce and tightened foreign manpower supply, the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) reported total employment contracted by 2,700 in 3Q 2016, following slower growth in the past two quarters. Owing mainly to contractions in the manufacturing and construction industries, this is the first decline since 1Q 2015. In addition, over the first nine months of 2016, total employment grew by 14,500, the lowest growth since 2009. Singapore’s weak labour productivity levels improved by 0.8% in 1H 2016 over the same period in 2015, and this was an improvement from the 0.3% growth in 2H 2015 over 2H 2014.

Furthermore, MOM has stepped up its efforts to transform the industries and create quality jobs through the SkillsFuture and Adapt & Grow initiatives amid the on-going economic transition. MOM also recently announced a new requirement on mandatory retrenchment notifications that will take efect from 1 January 2017. Under the Workforce Singapore Agency Act, employers will need to notify the Ministry of retrenchments within five working days after they provide notice of retrenchment to affected employees, if five or more employees are retrenched within a six-month period. This policy has the potential to become a model for countries that want to help workers hurt by globalization without erecting protectionist barriers, as reported in a Bloomberg report.

Taking into account the global uncertainties, and barring the full materialisation of downside risks, the Singapore economy is expected to grow at a modest pace of 1.0%to 3.0% in 2017.

SINGAPORE REPORT | DECEMBER 2016

Office space prices in 4Q 2016 declined by 0.6%, as compared to the 0.4% drop in the preceding quarter. Rentals of office space in 4Q 2016 also fell by 1.8% compared with the decline of 1.1% in the previous quarter. For the whole of 2016, prices and rentals by 2.8% and 8.2% respectively, compared with the 0.1% and 6.5% decline in 2015. As at the end of 4Q 2016, there was a total supply of about 786,000m2 GFA of office space in the pipeline, compared with the 879,000m2 GFA of office space in the pipeline in the previous quarter. The island-wide vacancy rate of office space at the end of 4Q 2016 rose to 11.1% from 10.4% at the end of the previous quarter.

Retail space shared similar weakness. For the whole of 2016, prices and rentals of retail space fell by 5.4% and 8.3% respectively, compared with the 0.8% and 4.1% decline in 2015. As at the end of 4Q 2016, there was a total supply of 595,000m2 GFA of retail space from projects in the pipeline, compared with the 652,000m2 GFA of retail space in the pipeline in the previous quarter.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) warned the uncertain economy ahead means Singaporean households should review their investments and take note of emerging risks such as those in property and corporate bonds. The warning comes amid prolonged weak growth, low interest rates and rising political risks, which have raised concerns about global financial stability.

While Singapore undergoes domestic economic restructuring, employment prospects continue to moderate and the local real estate scene for commercial and residential properties remain still. In all the real estate market segments, a supply overhang looms.

There has been increasingly fewer investors and overseas buyers in the market and home prices have fallen since the introduction of the cooling measures and TDSR (Total Debt Servicing Ratio). According to the Urban Development Authority (URA) islandwide Property Price Index (PPI), prices of all private residential homes (landed and non-landed) in 4Q 2016 suffered its thirteenth consecutive quarter of decline as it weakened by 0.5%, compared with the 1.5% fall in 3Q 2016. For the whole of 2016, prices fell 3.1%, compared with the 3.7% decline in 2015. On the other hand, sales transactions volume for private residential units rose as the residential property market adjusted to lower prices.

URA reported as at the end of 4Q 2016, there was a total supply of 40,913 uncompleted private residential units (excluding ECs) in the pipeline, compared with the 43,693 units in the previous quarter and of this number, 19,071 units remained unsold. After adding the supply of 9,635 EC units in the pipeline, there were 50,548 units in the pipeline. Of the EC units in the pipeline, 3,970 units remained unsold. In total, 23,041 units (including ECs) remained unsold.

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MARKET TRENDS

SINGAPORE PROPERTY MARKET

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SINGAPORE REPORT | DECEMBER 2016

In 4Q 2016, the construction sector shrank by 2.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), extending the 2.2% contraction in the previous quarter, on the back of stagnating private sector construction activities. For the whole of 2016, the construction sector expanded marginally by 0.2%, a big contrast from the 3.9% growth in 2015, based on data from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). The MTI also reported employment in the construction sector contracted by 5,200 on the back of sluggish private sector construction activities. This was the first quarterly employment decline in the sector since the first quarter of 2015.

The construction industry is expected to decelerate further in tandem with the slow economy and the declining private sector demand, which has fallen by about half that of 2015, and will likely to continue to be under pressure in 2017. According to the Singapore Contractors Association Ltd (SCAL), construction firms are bracing themselves for headwinds in 2017 caused by tightening manpower, rising costs, stiffer regulatory controls, and lower margins amidst stiffer competition. For Budget 2017, the SCAL urged the government to help reduce construction companies’ business costs, step up demand through public sector projects and nurture the industry in preparing to build for Singapore future economy.

The government’s long term plan is to raise construction productivity by up to 3.0% per year. According to the Building Construction Authority (BCA), site construction productivity has increased by an average of 1.3% per year since 2009. The BCA unveiled a research and development (R&D) roadmap that aims to raise productivity within the construction industry. The roadmap identifies 35 technologies under seven clusters, which include robotics,

DfMA (Design for Manufacturing and Assembly) and 3D printing, and is intended to help contractors change the way they construct buildings as well as sustain productivity improvements in the long run.

Aside from the R&D roadmap, the government is also looking at stipulating productivity outcomes as one of the requirements in future Government Land Sale (GLS) tenders, without mandating any specific technology. Currently, contractors are mandated to use prefabrication, pre-finished volumetric construction (PPVC) in certain GLS sites.

In order to further boost adoption of technology and innovation to raise productivity, the SCAL called for the Productivity and Innovation Credit (PIC) scheme, which was introduced in 2010 and will expire in 2017, to be extended as statistics showed the take-up rate has been increasing over the years. With an overcapacity in the construction industry, the SCAL also called for the government to bring forward some public sector projects to tie over the fall in demand in private sector projects.

Most recently, lift reliability has been a subject of much concern throughout 2016 after a spate of lift malfunctions in various housing estates across Singapore. This led to BCA issuing a list of recommended upgrades for existing elevators, to further improve their safety and performance as part of its on-going review of lift regulations.

BCA’s Tender Price Index (TPI) decreased by -1.4% in 3Q 2016 from 2Q 2016 on the back of higher labour costs and intensifying competition over a shrinking pool of jobs. Tender prices and project margins are projected to trend downwards into 2017.

MARKET TRENDS

SINGAPORE CONSTRUCTION MARKET

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The global world have high diplomatic concerns over the political risks from Trump administration’s big changes in economic and military policy directions. There is growing unease within the European Union (EU). China’s economic trend treaded cautiously as it logged the same pace of growth for the first three quarters of the year amidst asset bubbles and high debt levels. In October 2016, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates the world to grow at 3.1% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2017.

The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 1.9% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the final quarter of 2016, according to the Commerce Department. This follows the impressive 3.5% growth in 3Q 2016 which recorded the best growth rate in two years, buoyed by strong consumer spending. For the second time since 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s raised its benchmark short term interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50-0.75%, on the back of a stable inflation rate and a reasonable job market. The central bank further signalled it may raise interest rates three more times in 2017, one more than what it had predicted in September 2016 as a result of expectations of a massive government stimulus under Trump. Besides, Trump’s resolute vision of U.S. trade policies have already influenced the dollar’s strengthening since his election.

The euro zone’s economic growth was stable for 2016. The GDP grew a modest 0.3% in 2Q 2016 and 3Q 2016 after a 0.5% rise in 1Q 2016. Germany has a presidential vote in February 2017, the Dutch go to polls in March 2017 and the first round of the French presidential election starts a month later. The European Commission cut its GDP forecasts for the euro area in 2017 on increased political uncertainty and weaker global trade and expects the currency bloc to grow 1.7% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017, after climbing 2.0% in 2015.

As the world’s third largest economy, Japan’s quarterly GDP growth peaked at 0.6% in 1Q 2016 before slowing down for the subsequent quarters of the

SINGAPORE REPORT | DECEMBER 2016

MARKET TRENDS

GLOBAL ECONOMY

year, according to Cabinet Office data. The economy grew 0.2% in 4Q 2016, from the previous quarter, according to preliminary data, the slowest pace for the year. Weak domestic activity cast doubt on hopes for a sustainable recovery in the long run as sluggish household spending has kept the country in prolonged deflation. Government statistics show tepid annual wage rises, so it also adds to concerns that the benefits of the “Abenomics” stimulus drive have yet to spread to households. Japan’s overall GDP grew at 1.0% for the whole of 2016, helped by an increase in exports in the second half of the year. Data showed overseas demand accounted for about half of the Japan’s GDP growth in 2016, therefore the country remains particularly vulnerable to any new trade barriers from the U.S., which is Japan’s biggest export market after China.

China, being the world’s second largest economy does not have full immunity from Trump’s trade measures too. Its sluggish exports is expected to face more pressure should Trump’s administration impose tough protectionist measures. The GDP grew 6.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 4Q 2016 on the back of higher government spending and record bank lending. For the whole of 2016, the economy grew 6.7% which kept in line with governmental estimates of 6.5%-7.0%. Although this may be the country’s slowest pace of growth in 26 years, it remains within the range for Beijing to meet its longer-term goal of doubling GDP and per capita income by 2020 from 2010 levels. The figures likely signalled that China’s economic growth is starting to stabilize amid the country’s transition toward domestic consumption and away from manufacturing- and investment-led growth. The government is also pushing through painful structural reforms to help deal with rising debt and real estate risks in their cooling housing market. Amid those signs of stabilisation, China is expected to lower their economic growth target to around 6.5% in 2017 for allow for more room to push reforms to contain debt risks.

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Data Sources: BCA and RLB

Variances between the RLB and the BCA Tender Price index arise from differences in the index derivation methodology, the basket

of items and weightages used for each index and the variety of building projects utilised. The index basket here excludes piling works

and Mechanical & Electrical services.

Base Year 2010 = 100 is implemented with effect from the first quarter of 2015.

* Average indices as at 3rd Quarter 2016

Note:

Data Source: BCA

Annual change 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

RLB TPI -4.1% 83.7 106.2 123.2 100.2 100.0 103.1 105.7 110.5 112.0 110.2 105.7

BCA TPI -4.8% 90.2 107.1 119.9 101.3 100.0 99.7 99.8 104.6 106.8 104.0 99.0

BUILDING TENDER PRICE INDICES

Annual change 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

HDB Flats -5.8% 87.2 103.6 124.3 107.2 100.0 93.0 92.0 97.8 99.8 96.0 88.6

PrivateNon-Landed

-2.2% 94.2 110.9 120.0 101.9 100.0 101.7 103.5 108.0 110.1 107.6 104.8

CommercialOffices

-3.0% 94.7 110.5 118.4 102.0 100.0 102.5 103.5 106.3 107.0 103.7 100.1

DECEMBER 2016|SINGAPORE REPORT

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

TENDER PRICE TRENDS

BCA TENDER PRICE INDICES

80

90

100

110

120

130

1,250

1,350

1,450

1,550

1,650

1,750

1,850

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

350

400

450

500

550

600

CRUDE OIL PRICES

Data Source: BCA

Data Source: IMF

Note: Crude Oil Prices above are expressed as monthly average prices of UK Brent, Dubai and WTI oil classifications.

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STEEL REINFORCEMENT (16 - 32MM HIGH TENSILE) SUPPLY PRICES

METAL PRICES

Average 3Q 16 / 2Q 16 change

Nov 15

Dec 15

Jan 16

Feb16

Mar 16

Apr16

May16

Jun16

Jul16

Aug16

Sep16

Oct16

Nov16

Crude Oil -0.2% 43 37 30 31 37 41 46 48 44 45 45 49 45

US

D/B

arr

el

SG

D/T

on

ne

US

D/T

on

ne

LHS: Left Hand Side y-axisRHS: Right Hand Side y-axis

SINGAPORE REPORT | DECEMBER 2016

COMMODITY PRICE TRENDS

Average 3Q 16 / 2Q 16 change

Nov 15

Dec 15

Jan 16

Feb 16

Mar 16

Apr16

May16

Jun16

Jul16

Aug 16

Sep16

Oct16

Nov 16

Steel REO -5.7% 425 397 392 411 447 535 548 493 489 500 496 494 553

Average 3Q 16 / 2Q 16 change

Nov 15

Dec 15

Jan 16

Feb 16

Mar 16

Apr16

May16

Jun16

Jul16

Aug 16

Sep16

Oct16

Nov 16

Copper 0.9% 4507 4628 4462 4594 4947 4850 4707 4630 4855 4757 4630 4855 4757

Aluminium 3.2% 1465 1494 1479 1535 1530 1564 1556 1591 1629 1641 1591 1629 1641

Copper (LHS)

Aluminium (RHS)

p: preliminary

Data SourceL London Metal Exchange (LME)

25

35

45

55

50.0

100.0

150.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16P

S$/m3S$/Tonne

BASIC CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

Data Source: BCA

Prices of rebar other than 16-32mm dimensions may be subject to surcharge.Prices of granite and concreting sand exclude local delivery charges to concrete batching plants.The market prices of rebar (without cut & bend) are based on fi xed price supply contracts with contract period 6 months or less.The market prices of ready mixed concrete are based on contracts with non-fi xed price, fi xed price and market retail price for Grade 40 Pump.

Note:

CURRENCYEXCHANGE RATES

Data Sources: IMF, Oanda

Note: Exchange rates above are expressed in terms of currency units per US Dollar; averaged monthly from daily unit rates.

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CURRENCY UNITS PER USD

UNIT JUL 16 AUG 16 SEP 16 OCT 16 NOV 16 DEC 16

Singapore Dollar $ SGD 1 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.38 1.41 1.44

Euro € EUR 1 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95

U.K. Pound Sterling ₤ GBP 1 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.81 0.80 0.80

Australian Dollar $ AUD 1 1.33 1.31 1.32 1.31 1.33 1.36

Chinese Yuan ¥ CNY 1 6.68 6.65 6.67 6.75 6.83 6.92

Malaysian Ringgit RM MYR 1 4.02 4.03 4.11 4.18 4.32 4.46

Japanese Yen ¥ JPY 100 1.04 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.08 1.16

Myanmar Kyat K MMK 100 12.00 12.15 12.52 12.94 13.18 13.70

Indonesian Rupiah Rp IDR 1000 13.12 13.17 13.11 13.02 13.29 13.42

Vietnamese Dong ₫ VND 1000 22.60 22.55 22.63 22.65 22.80 22.99

Average 3Q16 / 2Q16 change

Dec 15

Jan 16

Feb 16

Mar 16

Apr 16

May 16

Jun 16

Jul 16

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16P

Conc. Sand -3.9% 21.2 20.4 20.6 20.6 20.1 19.7 19.4 17.9 16.4 16.2 15.9 16.2 16.2

Granite (20mm) -4.1% 17.8 16.7 16.3 16.0 16.0 15.7 15.3 15.1 14.8 14.6 14.6 15.0 15.0

Cement -4.4% 90.8 88.9 87.3 86.7 84.5 84.2 82.6 81.2 81.1 80.5 80.1 79.3 78.8

Ready Mixed Conc. -5.0% 95.9 92.9 90.8 87.2 86.9 85.8 84.6 83.7 82.8 82.2 81.6 80.8 80.3

SINGAPORE REPORT | DECEMBER 2016

MATERIAL PRICE TRENDS

p: preliminaryLHS: Left Hand Side y-axis

RHS: Right Hand Side y-axis

Granite (LHS)Concreting Sand (LHS)

Cement (LHS)

Ready-Mixed Concrete (RHS)

LOCALCONSTRUCTION

PRICES

Notes:CFA - Construction Floor Area is the area of all building enclosed covered spaces measured to the outside face of the external walls including covered basement and above ground car park areas.

GFA - Gross Floor Area is the area of building enclosed covered spaces excluding car park and driveway areas calcu- lated for purposes of planning submissions.

All Singapore construction prices stated herein are as at 3rd Quarter 2016, and include a general allowance for founda-tion, carpark and external works. The price ranges herein are indicative and due consideration should be given to the impact of varying design, specifications, size, location and nature of each project when utilising this information. Prices described here may not fully reflect the extent of current market forces and tendering conditions on any specific project.

Exclusions:• Land cost • Legal and professional fees • Development charges • Authority fees • Finance costs • Loose furniture, fit-tings and works of art (unless otherwise stated) • Tenancy work • Site infrastructure work • Diversion of existing services • Green Mark cost premiums • Resident site staff cost • Models and prototypes • Future cost escalation • Goods and Services Tax

Disclaimer: While Rider Levett Bucknall LLP (“RLB”) has endeavoured to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials in this report (the “Materials”), it does not warrant its accuracy, adequacy, completeness or reasonableness and expressly disclaims liability for any errors in, or omissions therefrom. RLB shall not be liable for any damage, loss or expense whatsoever arising out of or in connection with the use or reliance on the Materials. The Materials are pro-vided for general information only. Professional advice should be obtained for your particular factual situation before making any decision. The Materials may not, in any medium, be reproduced, published, adapted, altered or otherwise used in whole or in part in any manner without the prior written consent of RLB.

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DEVELOPMENT TYPE COST PER CFA

S$/m2

LANDED RESIDENTIAL

Terrace House 2,300 – 2,750

Semi-detached House 2,450 – 3,300

Detached House 3,450 – 5,650

Cluster Housing 2,650 – 3,000

INSTITUTIONAL

Institution of Higher Learning

2,800 – 3,500

Medical Institution 4,300 – 5,500

INDUSTRIAL

Single Storey Warehouse 1,100 – 1,600

Light Industrial Building 1,200 – 1,700

Heavy Industrial Building 1,450 – 2,000

CAR PARK

Above Grade Car Park 700 – 1,400

Basement Car Park 1,500 – 2,250

HEALTHCARE

Nursing Home 2,300 – 3,200

Medical Centre 2,900 – 3,300

Hospital 3,400 – 3,800

SINGAPORE REPORT | DECEMBER 2016

DEVELOPMENT TYPE COST PER CFA COST PER GFA

S$/m2 S$/m2

OFFICE

Standard (outside CBD) 2,000 – 3,200 2,500 – 4,150

Standard (within CBD) 2,100 – 3,350 3,000 – 4,400

Prestige (within CBD) 3,000 – 4,200 4,150 – 5,450

HOTEL (INCLUDING FF&E)

Serviced Apartment 3,100 – 3,600 4,100 – 4,700

Three Star 3,300 – 3,700 4,100 – 4,800

Four Star 3,600 – 4,450 4,700 – 5,850

Five Star 4,300 – 5,600 5,450 – 7,400

RETAIL

Medium Quality 2,200 – 2,900 3,050 – 3,650

Good Quality 3,000 – 3,400 3,750 – 4,450

CONDOMINIUM

Medium Quality Condominium

2,000 – 2,650 2,650 – 3,400

Good Quality Condominium

2,550 – 3,200 3,400 – 4,350

Luxury Quality Condominium

3,250 – 4,400 4,400 – 6,000

Cover: Singapore Downtown Core

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MCI (P) 140/06/2016