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Skating to Where thePuck Will Be

Copyright © 2014, Joel L. Hartman. This work is the intellectual property of the author. Permission is granted for this material to be shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyrightstatement appears on the reproduced materials and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the author. To disseminate or otherwise to republish requires written permission from the author.

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Wayne Gretzky“The greatest hockey player ever”

Only NHL player to score >200 points in a season“Skate to where the puck’s going to be,

not where it’s been.”

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However, This Session isNot About…! Hockey

! Sports, or! Wayne Gretzky

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Rather, it’s About…! The future

! Leadership! You

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A Few WordsAbout the Future

If you don’t know where you’re going,any path will take you there.

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The Future Can be VeryHard to Predict! “Everything that can be invented

has been invented.” Charles Duell, US Patent Office, 1899 ! “I think there is a world market for

maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, IBM, 1943 !

“The ‘telephone’ has too manyshortcomings…it is of no value to us.”Western Union internal memo, 1876

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The Future Can be VeryHard to Predict! “I predict the Internet will go

supernova and catastrophicallycollapse in 1996” Robert Metcalfe, 1995

! “There is no reason anyone wouldwant a computer in their home.”

! “640K ought to be enough foranybody.” Bill Gates, 1981

Ken Olson, 1977

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From Futurist Yogi Berra! “Predicting is difficult, especially when

it’s about the future.” Also attributed to Neils Bohr ! “If you see a fork in the road, take it.”

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Even Our Crystal BallCan Be Clouded

2004 Horizon Report! Scalable vector graphics

! Rapid prototyping

! Multimodal interfaces

! Context-aware computing

! Knowledge webs

2009 Horizon Report! Smart objects

! Semantic-aware applications

! The personal web

! Geo-everything

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Our Limited Powers of Prediction• In the short term, we overpredict the outcome• In the long term, we underpredict the

outcome

Gartner Hype Cycle: Gartner.com

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So How Do We…! See the future?! Prepare ourselves

for the future?! Lead our institutions

into the future?

From: pulp-o-mizer.com

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Are there “Laws” ofTechnological Change?! The Negroponte Shift

! Gilder’s Law! Metcalfe’s Law!

Moore’s Law

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Oops…Moore’s LawRepealed?

Source: Kunle Olukotun,Lance Hammond, HerbSutter, and Burton Smith

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Thinking About TheFuture! There is no single future, but rather

many potential futures! Early on, the future looks like the past;

but suddenly everything becomes

different

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Thinking About TheFuture! Example: early movies were filmed

stage plays; early TV was visual radioperformances

! Example: when we put in new ERP

systems, users wanted them to workthe way the legacy systems worked

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The Internet Effect! Disintermediation

! Music! Newspapers! Books! Movies / TV

! Any content-based service can bedisintermediated! Like, maybe higher education?

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The Future Often Comes …! In small, incremental ways

! In various, diverse areas of endeavor! And then convergence occurs,

producing visible impact

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You Can See ItHappening! By reading or viewing multiple

sources of information! From various, seemingly disparate

disciplines…! And then triangulate

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And the InevitableBlack Swans! Mosaic

! Google! iPhone

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The Four Domains ofResearch! Experimental

! Theoretical

! Computational

! Data Explorational

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Some Key VariablesAren’t Technical! Human!

Social! Political! Economic

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A Few PredictiveAssumptions! Simplicity wins over complexity!

Vertical integration wins over non-integration! Open wins over proprietary! Interpolation wins over extrapolation! Partnerships win over going it alone

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“The Best Way ToPredict The FutureIs To Invent It.”

Alan Kay

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Discussion 1Please divide into groups of three or four.

1) Through what lens do you envision the future?2) What sources and resources do you rely upon?

3) How far into the future do you think you can reliably see?

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Discussion 21) How do you lead your institution into the future?

2) What techniques do you employ?3) How do you engage your constituents?

4) How do you handle resistance to change?

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“Our Immediate Neighborhood we

know intimately. But with increasingdistance, our knowledge fades.”Edwin Hubble

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Thanks!