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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

25/10/ 2011

Skills forecast and mismatch

in Europe

Pascaline Descy Head of research and policy analysis

Cedefop

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

Skills are key

For competitiveness in knowledge economies

Higher skills and ability to use skills = higher productivity

For career and life success Employment

Wages

Civic engagement

Health

Adaptability

But which skills? For which jobs?

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

Top sectors & jobs demand in the EU

Cyprus Presidency Conference 22/10/2012

TOP 5

sectors 2010-2020

Expansion demand

Replacement

demand

Job

openings

Health &

social work

1.5 7.3 8.8

Professional services

2.7 5.7 8.4

Retail 0.9 5.5 6.5

Education 0.3 5.7 6.0

Other

business services

1.7 4.2 5.9

Source: Cedefop skill supply and skill demand forecast model

Change in employment by major occupational groups,

2000-2025

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

Demand for both high & medium

qualification

20% 19% 17%

51% 49% 48%

29% 32%

35%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2000 2010 2020

Low Medium High

Change in required educational level in jobs, 2000-2020, EU27

Source: European Social Survey data

& Cedefop’s skill supply and skill demand forecast model

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

The right ‘skills mix’?

Skills for success

Basic/foundation skills

Generic/transversal & ICT skills – increasingly important in workplace

Specific technical knowledge

Adaptability, flexibility and career management skills

Entering the labour market Specific technical knowledge - along with generic skills

Work experience – ‘simulated work practices’ at school or work-based learning

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

Skills increasing in importance

The view of employers

Source: Cedefop pilot survey on skill needs in Europe

Machine

mechanics

Shop sales

persons

Finance

professionals

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

A Skill Mismatch in Europe?

Skills shortages

o Significant deficits of basic skills

o Bottlenecks in specific sectors or occupations (e.g. health,

ICT, finance, engineering)

o EU firms report difficulties in finding staff with required skills

Source: Manpower Talent Surveys

Percentage of employers facing

difficulties filling their jobs, 2006-2013

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

Total

High skill

Skilled non manual

Skilled manual

Elementary occupations Low education

Medium education

High education

Change (%) in employment by occupational group and skill level, EU27, 2007-2011

Displacement effects during the crisis

Source: Eurostat data

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

The best educated workforce ever and low job creation

About 40m EU workers (20% of labour force) currently unemployed or

underemployed – significant share with high qualifications or skills

1 out of 4 HE graduates took up medium/low skill jobs (25% HE over-

qualification)

23% of EU workers mismatched in field of study

In 2011, 74m employees jobs in need of medium-qualifications, but

61m medium-educated workers available

Stable or falling job complexity in past decade in some MS skill

underutilisation

Claims of skill shortages but….

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

Available jobs and skills demand PES Regional observatories

Mid-term labour market

trends Sector/occupation skill requirements

Current labour market flows

Skill mismatch Shortages Overqualification Overskilling

Future skill needs Forecasts Foresight Scenarios

Informing decisions –

From the local to the EU level

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

EU Skills Panorama

A central access point to data, information

and intelligence on skill needs in Europe

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

A more skill intensive and

competitive labour market

Reform education and training Renew qualifications in partnerships

Provide guidance and counseling in

education and during careers

Support mobility between occupations, sectors and

countries

Project-based and work-based learning to combine basic, technical and generic skills and increase job readiness

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Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013

Thank you for your attention

http://www.cedefop.europa.eu