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Climate Change Impacts in Manitoba

Dr. Danny BlairUniversity of Winnipeg

http://dannyblair.uwinnipeg.ca/

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

2015 will be the warmest year on record

1880-2014 Global Temperature Change (°C)

Anomalies Relative to 1951-1980

1°C warming over the past 100 years

About the Graph: Line plot of global mean land-ocean temperature index, 1880 to present, with the base period 1951-1980. The dotted black line is the annual mean and the solid red line is the five-year mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. Important points on the graph: In the year 2015 the temperature index is ‘off the chart’ (0.86 degrees). Notice that there is a large amount of variation from year to year, but the general trend, especially after 1970 shows a rapid rise in the global temperature. During the 1940s there was a period of cooling; it is thought that this was, at least in part, caused by atmospheric pollution during a period of rapid industrialization. That is, industries which were at that time not required to use pollution controls put a great deal of material into the atmosphere that blocked out some sunlight, thereby slowing down the rate of warming caused by the greenhouse gases. Some of this cooling was also caused by natural variability, especially that caused by the oceans. Major points: The globe has warmed by about 1 degree over the last 100 years, which is a very rapid rate of warming compared to changes known to have occurred over at least many thousands of years. Graph can be found: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/ Other useful websites: To answer the tough questions about climate change visit http://climatechangeconnection.org/science/.

3Winnipeg

1971-2013 SPRING Temperature Trend (°C/century)

About 1.2°Cin Winnipeg over 1971-2013

Global: 0.7°CData sources:NRCan and NASA

About the Map: This map shows the rate of temperature change across the Prairie Provinces during the spring months (March, April, May) in the 43 years of 1971-2013. The rate is calculated as a simple linear trend (a best fit straight line). The values are shown as degrees per century; degrees per century means the temperature change that would occur over 100 years if the rate observed within these particular 43 years continued for another 57 years. For example, Winnipeg warmed at the rate of about 3 degrees per century. Notice that some places have a negative trend, indicate cooling, but most places warmed. Important: just because you can calculate a trend does not mean that the trend was statistically significant. Some trends are essentially random (not really trends caused by some influence), especially when the data is very variable from year to year, which is true for our climate. Major message: Over these 43 years, Winnipeg spring temperatures, for example, warmed 1.2 degrees; this is almost double the amount of warming that occurred for the globe as a whole during these years (and in these months). This is important: the Prairies (and most of Canada) have warmed, and will warm much more than the global average. Source: Created by Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/ Other useful resources: The book, The New Normal: The Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate.

4Winnipeg

1971-2013 SUMMER Temperature Trend(°C/century)



About the Map: This map shows the rate of temperature change across the Prairie Provinces during the summer months (June, July, August) in the 43 years of 1971-2013. Major message: Notice that more warming has occurred in summer than in the spring. Winnipeg warmed at the rate of about 4 degrees per century (1.7 degrees over the 43 years); this is more then double the amount of warming that occurred for the globe as a whole during these years. Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

6Winnipeg

1971-2013 FALL Temperature Trend (°C/century)



About the Map: This map shows the rate of temperature change across the Prairie Provinces during the fall months (September, October, November) in the 43 years of 1971-2013. Major message: Notice that more warming has occurred in fall than in spring or summer. Winnipeg warmed at the rate of about 6 degrees per century (2.6 degrees over the 43 years). Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

11Winnipeg

1971-2013 WINTER Temperature Trend (°C/century)



About the Map: This shows the rate of temperature change across the Prairie Provinces during the winter months (December, January, February) in the 43 years of 1971-2013. Major message: Notice that this is the season which has warmed at the greatest rate (the trends are very statistically significant in this season, too). Winnipeg warmed at the rate of about 11 degrees per century (4.7 degrees over the 43 years); this is almost 7 times faster than the global trend in these years. Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

The Keeling CurveCarbon Dioxide Concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii

About the Graph: The Keeling Curve is named after Charles David Keeling, who was the first scientist to accurately measure the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, starting in 1958. It is considered by many to be one of the most important graphs in science, in that it clearly shows that humans are having an impact on the chemistry of the atmosphere. It shows that the carbon dioxide released by the burning of fossil fuels is accumulating at a fast rate in the atmosphere (even though much of the CO2 gets absorbed into the oceans). This additional carbon dioxide is the root cause of ‘global warming’, because carbon dioxide is an important greenhouse gas. A very similar graph would be obtained from atmospheric samples from anywhere in the world. The ‘zig zag’ pattern is caused by the seasons; the concentration goes down in the northern hemisphere spring/summer when CO2 is taken up by the extensive green plant cover, and it goes up in the fall/winter when the vegetation dies and releases much of its carbon back to the atmosphere. Major message: Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the atmosphere because of the burning of fossil fuels. The current CO2 level (now over 400 ppm) exceeds any historical concentrations ever recorded. Graph can be found: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ Other useful websites: Climate records from the past http://climatechangeconnection.org/science/climate-change-in-the-past/.

Global Average Surface Temperature Change for High and Low Carbon Emissions Scenarios

Source: Adapted from IPCC’s latest report

High carbon

Low carbon

About the Graph: This graph shows the temperature projections for the globe as a whole, to the year 2100. The red line shows the projected temperature increase using the high carbon scenario; this assumes that we do not significantly reduce our emissions from the burning of fossil fuels (causing the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere to rise to very high levels). The blue line shows the temperature projection for a low carbon scenario that assumes we dramatically reduce our emissions by using green technology (wind, solar, etc.) rather than fossil fuels. Major message: The high carbon projection indicates that the planet will be about 4 degrees warmer than it is now, by the end of the century. Remember, over the last 100 years we warmed by about 1 degree; 4 more degrees of warming in the next 100 years, or so, is a very fast rate and large amount of warming. We have already seen devastating impacts with 1 degree, 4 degrees will be unimaginable. Graph can be found: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf (page 9-11) Other useful websites: NASA projections for temperature and precipitation - http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2293/

Largest amount of warming projected in higher latitudes and over land.


Low carbon High carbon

About the Map: These maps show the projected change in global annual temperature for the low and high carbon scenarios. Major message: The high carbon scenario produces a very large amount of warming across the globe by the end of the century. The amount of warming is not evenly distributed. The high latitude land areas would experience especially large amounts of warming. This includes virtually all of Canada, including the Prairies. These land areas (and polar oceans) are expected to warm more than other areas because they get darker; that is, with less snow and sea ice, they are more able to absorb (rather than reflect) sunlight. Notice that a low carbon scenario is projected to prevent a large amount of warming. Map can be found: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf Page 20 Other useful websites: Nasa: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/decadaltemp.php

In general, wet areas projected to get wetter, and dry areas get drier.


High carbonLow carbon

About the Map: : These maps show the projected change in global annual precipitation for the low and high carbon scenarios. Major message: Precipitation is much more difficult to forecast/project, but climate models generally show that wet areas are expected to get wetter and dry areas are expected to get drier. Notice that the Prairies lie in a zone that is expected to get slightly wetter. The stippling and shading on the maps indicates the level of agreement among the various climate models and the size of the change relative to normal. Map can be found: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf Page 20 Other useful websites: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch9s9-5-4-2.html and http://climatechangeconnection.org/impacts/water-impacts/

FALL Mean Temperature Change (°C)

1981-2010 to 2021-2050 1981-2010 to 2051-2080

High Carbon

+2.1 +4.3

Winnipeg

Data source: PCIC

About the Map: These maps show the projected temperature changes in the fall for two future time periods, relative to 1981-2010, using the high carbon scenario. These values are the average values produced by 12 Global Climate Models (GCMs). It is important to use many models, not just one, because no one model is ‘correct’; they each project slightly different conditions because they each have different strengths and weaknesses. Major message: Notice that the average fall temperature in Winnipeg is projected (according to the average of the 12 models) to warm 2.1 degrees by 2021-2050, and 4.3 degrees by 2051-2080. Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

WINTER Mean Temperature Change (°C)

1981-2010 to 2021-2050 1981-2010 to 2051-2080

+3.0 +5.8

High Carbon

Data source: PCIC

About the Map: These maps show the projected temperature changes in the winter for two future time periods, relative to 1981-2010, using the high carbon scenario. These values are the average values produced by 12 Global Climate Models (GCMs). Major message: Notice that the average winter temperature in Winnipeg is projected (according to the average of the 12 models) to warm 3.0 degrees by 2021-2050, and 5.8 degrees by 2051-2080. Winter is the season that is expected to warm the most, espcially in the northern areas. Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

SPRING Mean Temperature Change (°C)

1981-2010 to 2021-2050 1981-2010 to 2051-2080

+1.7 +3.5

High Carbon

Data source: PCIC

About the Map: These maps show the projected temperature changes in the spring for two future time periods, relative to 1981-2010, using the high carbon scenario. These values are the average values produced by 12 Global Climate Models (GCMs). Major message: Notice that the average spring temperature in Winnipeg is projected (according to the average of the 12 models) to warm 1.7 degrees by 2021-2050, and 3.5 degrees by 2051-2080. Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

SUMMER Mean Temperature Change (°C)

1981-2010 to 2021-2050 1981-2010 to 2051-2080

+1.9 +4.1

High Carbon

Data source: PCIC

About the Map: These maps show the projected temperature changes in the summer for two future time periods, relative to 1981-2010, using the high carbon scenario. These values are the average values produced by 12 Global Climate Models (GCMs). Major message: Notice that the average summer temperature in Winnipeg is projected (according to the average of the 12 models) to warm 1.9 degrees by 2021-2050, and 4.1 degrees by 2051-2080. Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

FALL Precipitation Change (%)

1981-2010 to 2021-2050 1981-2010 to 2051-2080

+10.3 +9.1

High Carbon

Data source: PCIC

About the Map: These maps show the changes in total fall precipitation for two future time periods, relative to 1981-2010, using the high carbon scenario. The changes are shown as percentage change relative to the values in 1981-2010 (e.g. 10.3% more precipitation compared to 1981-2010). These values are the average values produced by 12 Global Climate Models (GCMs). It is important to use many models, not just one, because no one model is ‘correct’; they each project slightly different conditions because they each have different strengths and weaknesses. Major message: Notice that the projected change in Winnipeg is higher in the earlier period than the later period. This is indicative of the amount of variability within the model projections for precipitation (much higher that the variability in the temperature projections). Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

WINTER Precipitation Change (%)

1981-2010 to 2021-2050 1981-2010 to 2051-2080

+8.2 +19.8

High Carbon

Data source: PCIC

About the Map: These maps show the changes in total winter precipitation for two future time periods, relative to 1981-2010, using the high carbon scenario. The changes are shown as percentage change relative to the values in 1981-2010 (e.g. 10.3% more precipitation compared to 1981-2010). These values are the average values produced by 12 Global Climate Models (GCMs). Major message: Notice that the projected change in Winnipeg is higher more then 2x higher in the later period. Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

SPRING Precipitation Change (%)

1981-2010 to 2021-2050 1981-2010 to 2051-2080

+11.3 +26.9

High Carbon

Data source: PCIC

About the Map: These maps show the changes in total spring precipitation for two future time periods, relative to 1981-2010, using the high carbon scenario. The changes are shown as percentage change relative to the values in 1981-2010 (e.g. 11.3% more precipitation compared to 1981-2010). These values are the average values produced by 12 Global Climate Models (GCMs). Major message: Spring is the season that is expected to have the largest increase in precipitation, especially across the southern Prairies. This may have profound implications for water and flood management in this area. Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

SUMMER Precipitation Change (%)

1981-2010 to 2021-2050 1981-2010 to 2051-2080

-0.9 -6.4

High Carbon

Data source: PCIC

About the Map: These maps show the changes in total summer precipitation for two future time periods, relative to 1981-2010, using the high carbon scenario. The changes are shown as percentage change relative to the values in 1981-2010 (e.g. 0.9% less precipitation compared to 1981-2010). These values are the average values produced by 12 Global Climate Models (GCMs). Major message: This is the only season in which the climate models, on average, indicate a reduction in precipitation. Some models indicate slight increases but, on average, the models indicate a slight reduction in total summer precipitation. Furthermore, the models suggest that the precipitation will become more intense (as in thunderstorm events). Even if the precipitation does not go down, the fact that the summer temperatures are expected to rise many degrees suggests that much of the precipitation will evaporate. This would almost certainly increase the risk of drought. Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

Annual Number of Hot Days (≥30oC) 1981-2010

12 days

Data source: NRCan

About the Map: This map shows the average number of +30 (or warmer) days across the region in the period 1981-2010. Major message: Winnipeg currently gets about 12 of these hot days in an average year. Parts of the western Prairies get many more. Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

1981-2010 to 2021-2050 1981-2010 to 2051-2080

Change in Annual Number of Days ≥ 30°C

15 more 36 more

High Carbon

Data source: PCIC

About the Map: These maps show the projected change in the number of hot days per year for two future time periods, relative to 1981-2010, using the high carbon scenario. Major message: A very large increase in the number of hot days per year is projected for the Prairies. For example, Winnipeg is projected, on average, to have 36 more hot days per year in 2051-2080…bringing the average number of hot days per year to 48. About 1 in10 years are projected to have more than 60 hot days. Source: Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

2071-2100

2020s

2050s

2080s

Summer (JJA)Climates Similar to Winnipeg’s

Similar = Mean Temperature ± 1°C and Precipitation ± 20%

Data source: AdaptWest

About the Map: This map answers the question “Whose summer climate will we have in the future?”. Using temperature and precipitation projections it shows that the summer climate in Winnipeg in the 2020s will be quite similar to that currently found in North Dakota; in the 2050s it will be like that currently in South Dakota; and in the 2080s it will be like that in Nebraska. Major message: These projections use a medium carbon scenario (between the high and low scenarios used in the global maps). Source: http://adaptwest.databasin.org/ and Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

2071-2100

2020s

2050s

2080s

Summer (JJA)Climates Similar to Winnipeg’s

High Carbon

Similar = Mean Temperature ± 1°C and Precipitation ± 20%

Data source: AdaptWest

About the Map: This map answers the question “Whose summer climate will we have in the future?”, using the high carbon scenario. It shows that the summer climate in Winnipeg in the 2020s will be quite similar to that currently found in North Dakota; in the 2050s it will be like that currently in South Dakota and Nebraska; and in the 2080s it will be like that in Oklahoma and northern Texas. Major message: These ‘climate migration’ maps very clearly show that the climate of the Prairies is expected to change quite dramatically, especially under the high carbon scenario. Source: http://adaptwest.databasin.org/ and Prairie Climate Centre. http://prairieclimatecentre.ca/

• Longer summers• Shorter winters• Less winter heating• New crop varieties• New business opportunities• New tourism opportunities

Implications:

Major message: There are many impacts caused by climate change. These impacts have been seen across the world and as we continue to increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere there will continue to be impacts. There are more costs than benefits to a warmer climate. Useful websites: http://climatechangeconnection.org/impacts/

• Heat waves• Drought• Storms• Floods• Fires• Variability• New pests

Implications:

• Heat waves• Drought• Storms• Floods• Fires• Variability• New pests

Implications:• Human health• Agriculture• Forestry• Water resources• Infrastructure• Winter roads• Insurance• Winter sports• Ecosystems

slide 1 in manitoba university of winnipeg http ... · major message: over these 43 years, winnipeg...

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