slide 1 sakari uppala and dick dee european centre for medium-range weather forecasts ecmwf...
TRANSCRIPT
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Slide 1
Sakari Uppala and Dick Dee
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ECMWF reanalysis:
present and future
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Slide 2
CONTENTS
Background
ERA-15 ERA-40 ERA-Interim
Product quality
Reanalysis plans at ECMWF
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Slide 3
ECMWF reanalysis projects
ERA-15 1979 – 1993
ERA-40 1957 – 2002
ERA-Interim 1989 … ECDAS
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Slide 4
Operational forecast performance 1980-2007
Northern Hemisphere
500 hPa geopotentialANC reaching 60%
Southern Hemisphere
500 hPa geopotentialANC reaching 60%
Tropics
850 hPa wind vectorABC reaching 70%
N.HEM LAT 20.000 TO 90.000 LON -180.000 TO 180.000
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
500hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
ECMWF FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC
Forecast Day MA = 12 Month Moving Average
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20064.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
SCORE REACHES 60.00
SCORE REACHES 60.00 MA
2005200019851980 1990 1995TROPICS LAT -20.000 TO 20.000 LON -180.000 TO 180.000
ABSOLUTE CORRELATION FORECAST
850hPa VECTOR WIND
ECMWF FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC
Forecast Day MA = 12 Month Moving Average
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
SCORE REACHES 70.00
SCORE REACHES 70.00 MA
2005200019851980 1990 1995S.HEM LAT -90.000 TO -20.000 LON -180.000 TO 180.000
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
500hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
ECMWF FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC
Forecast Day MA = 12 Month Moving Average
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20063
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
SCORE REACHES 60.00
SCORE REACHES 60.00 MA
2005200019851980 1990 1995
Monthly time seriesMoving average
ERA-15 ERA-40ERA-Interim
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Slide 5
ECMWF reanalyses
ERA-40 1957-2002
ERA-15 1979-1993
Improved data assimilation system
- Assimilating model T159L60
- 3D-Var FGAT
- Analysis of O3
More extensive use satellite radiances ERA-15 experience ERA-40 blacklist More comprehensive use of conventional observations Use of Meteosat reprocessed winds, CSR data passive Improved SST & ICE dataset Ocean wave height analysis
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Slide 6
VTPRVTPR1973
TOMS/ SBUVTOMS/ SBUV1979
1979TOVS:TOVS:
HIRS/ MSU/ SSUHIRS/ MSU/ SSUCloud Motion WindsCloud Motion Winds
1987SSM/ISSM/I 1991
ERS-1ERS-11995ERS-2ERS-2
1998ATOVS:ATOVS:AMSU-AAMSU-A
METEOSAT METEOSAT ReprocessedReprocessed
Cloud Motion Cloud Motion WindsWinds
1982 1988
CONVENTIONAL SURFACE AND UPPERAIR OBSERVATIONSNCAR/ NCEP, ECMWF, JMA, US Navy, Twerle, GATE, FGGE, TOGA, TAO, COADS, …
AIRCRAFT DATAAIRCRAFT DATA1973
1957 2002
Observing Systems in ERA-40
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Slide 7
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Slide 8
Trend and variability in two-metre temperature
CRUTEM2v (Jones and Moberg, 2003)
ERA-40
Linear trend (1979-2001): CRUTEM2v 0.31OC/decade
ERA-40 0.28OC/decade
NCEP 0.19OC/decade
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Slide 9
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Slide 10
Satellite radar altimeter 1992-2003(Davis et al. Science 2005 Vol 308 No. 5730)
Surface elevation change rate (cm per year):
1992 2003
Precipitation change (cm of snow per year): ERA-40 (1992-2001)+ ECMWF OP (2002-03)
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Slide 11
The Great Flood of 1953
The greatest surge on record for the North Sea as a whole occurred on 31 January and 1 February 1953. In the Netherlands 1,800 people drowned and in eastern England 307 people died.
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Slide 12
February 1953 00UTC The 500 hPa “Carpet” donated to ECMWF by
the Netherlands
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Slide 13
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Slide 14
Analysis
Sunday 1 February 1953 00UTC 500 hPa geopotential
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Slide 15
Forecast +7D
Analysis 1 Feb. 1953 T+168 hours
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Slide 16
Wave Analysis 1 Feb. 1953 T+36 hour Wave forecast
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Slide 17
Serves as an intermediate reanalysis before the next extended reanalysis
Assimilation has reached September 2004 and will reach real time in the end of 2008
1989 - 1998 products publicly available
Input data based mainly on ERA-40 and ECMWF operational observations with a few reprocessed datasets
ERA-40 1957-2002
ERA-Interim 1989 to continue as CDAS
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Slide 18
Data-assimilation system
T159L60 T255L60 / 12 hour 4D-Var
New humidity analysis and improved model physics
Satellite level-1c radiances
Better RTTOV and improved use of radiances, especially IR and AMSU
Assimilation of rain affected radiances through 1D-Var
Variational bias correction
Improved use of radiosondes
Bias correction and homogenization based on ERA-40
Correction of SHIP/ SYNOP surface pressure biases
Use of reprocessed
- Meteosat winds
- GPS-RO data CHAMP / UCAR 2001 , GRACE and COSMIC
- GOME O3 profiles 1995
New set of Altimeter wave height data 1991
ERA-40 1957-2002
ERA-Interim 1989 to continue as CDAS
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Slide 19
56
54
5452
49
49
41
30
28
2321 21
19
19
18
10
87
6
301
2
3
3
5
5
6
11
11
11
11
13
18
24
24
3840
0006 monthly/daily mean 198901 to 199812total column water vapour
kg/m²
2
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
70
ERA group
Daily mean total column water vapour1989-1998
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Slide 20
10
7
5
44
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-3
-11
-11
-8
-7-7
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2-2
-2
-1
-1
-1-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
00
0
10
7
5
44
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-3
-11
-11
-8
-7-7
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2-2
-2
-1
-1
-1-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
00
0
ERA40 monthly/daily mean 198901 to 199812differences to0006 monthly/daily mean 198901 to 199812total column water vapour
kg/m²
-20-16-13-10-7-5-4-3-2-1-0.50.512345710131620
ERA group
Daily mean total column water vapour1989-1998, ERA-Interim-ERA-40
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Slide 21
3
11
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
*** ***
***
-2
-2
-1
0
0
3
11
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
*** ***
***
-2
-2
-1
0
0
SSM/I monthly/daily mean 198901 to 199812differences to0006 monthly/daily mean 198901 to 199812total column water vapour
kg/m²
-20-16-13-10-7-5-4-3-2-1-0.50.512345710131620
ERA group
Daily mean total column water vapour1989-1998, ERA-Interim-SSM/I
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Slide 22
Global Total Column Water Vapour
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Slide 23
29
21
1413
12
12
1110
10
9
7
6
6
6
5
4
44
3
3
3 3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
8
total precipitationERA-Interim. 0006 monthly/daily accumulation. +12h.
mm/day
0.2
1
2
3
5
7
10
13
16
20
25
ERA group
Mean daily precipitation,1989-1998, ERA-Interim
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Slide 24
14
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-1 -24
-15 -14-9
-5
-4
-4
-3
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-1 -24
-15 -14-9
-5
-4
-4
-3
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ERA40 198901 to 199812 +12hdifferences toERA-Interim. 0006 198901 to 199812 +12htotal precipitation
mm/day
-25-20-16-13-10-7-5-3-2-1-0.20.2123571013162025
ERA group
Mean daily precipitation, 1989-1998 ERA-Interim-ERA-40
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Slide 25
ERA-40 +00h JRA-25 +00h RSS +00h ERA-Int +00hTotal column water vapour (Kg/m**2) Tropical Oceans
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 200138
40
42
44
46
48
38
40
42
44
46
48
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Slide 26
Tropical Ocean areas
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Slide 27
27
20
12
1110
7
66 6
6
5
5
4
3
3
3
3
2
22
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
-2
-6
-6
-5-5
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
11
27
20
12
1110
7
66 6
6
5
5
4
3
3
3
3
2
22
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
-2
-6
-6
-5-5
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
11
precipitation - evaporationERA-Interim. 0006 monthly/daily accumulation. +12h.
mm/day
-13
-10
-7
-5
-3
-2
-1
-0.20.2
1
2
3
5
7
10
13
16
20
25
ERA group
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Slide 28
ERA-40 +12h ERA-Int +12hPrecipitation - evaporation (mm/day) The entire Globe
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
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Slide 29
Forecast performance, ERA-40, ERA-Interim and Operations
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Slide 30
Research & Development as a collaborative effort 2009-2011
Start of production in 2012
1938 2015 and continue as CDAS
Important components
– Recovery, organization and homogenization of observations
– Improved SST & ICE dataset
– Variational analysis technique aimed for reanalysis
– Comprehensive adaptive bias handling
– Handling of model biases
– Coupled atmospheric-ocean reanalysis?
ERA-Interim
ERA-75?
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Slide 31
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Slide 32
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Slide 33
4D-Var CONTROLAll observations
3D-Var “Surfacepressure
observationsonly”
4D-Var “Surfacepressure
observationsonly”
15 February 2005 00 UTC 500 hPa analysis