NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

OVERVIEWChallenges

• Over populated centre-left

• Rise of the Green Party

• Conservatives aiming to achieve majority

• Potential stalled progress due to Vote-Swap

OVERVIEW

OVERVIEW

“I’m Applyingfor Stephen Harper’s Job”

NDP Leader JACK LAYTON

FROM THE HEIGHTS OF 1988:NDP ELECTORAL HISTORY

• 1988 – Electoral High Point for the NDP• 20.4% of Electorate, 43 Seats

• 1993 – Disastrous Setback• Vote Share Dropped to 7%, 9 Seats

• Introduction of Two New Players

FROM THE HEIGHTS OF 1988:NDP ELECTORAL HISTORY

BLOC QUEBECOIS REFORM PARTY

2003: ENTER JACK LAYTON

UNDER JACK LAYTON

• 2006 – Bounce back• 17.5% of vote, 29 Seats

• Regained Important Ground, but Still Vulnerable

• Addressing Uneven Seat Distribution

• Party Profile Virtually at 1988 Level

PRE-ELECTION CONTEXT

• Provincial Popularity – Key to Federal Success

PARTY OBJECTIVES

• Since 1932, NDP Has Aimed to Build a Party of the Broadly Inclusive Left

• Biggest Challenge During Elections – Convincing Voters That the Value of Voting NDP is Greater than the Risk of Having Conservatives Govern

PARTY OBJECTIVES

• Strategic Dilemma: Target Competitors in the Centre-Left, or the Party whose Policies they are Considerably More Opposed to?

• Game Plan: Oppose Harper, Ignore the Liberals

PARTY OBJECTIVES

• Success of Strategy Could Easily Result in a Conservative Majority

• Not Striving for Substantial Gains could Set Party Back Once More, Erasing all Progress Made in 2000s

RISKS INVOLVED:

CONSERVATIVES ON BOARD

• Campaign Objective Overlapping with Conservatives’ CONSERVATIVE P.O.V.• Running Against NDP Easier than Running Against Liberals

TOM FLANAGAN

CAMPAIGN ORGANIZATIONAND STRUCTURE

ELECTION PLANNING COMMITTEE

• Was the center of “modernization” efforts to change their campaign

approach

• Campaign headed by a subcommittee, but once the efforts begin, a

smaller and more centralized “campaign directorate” takes over

• Two campaign chairs lead the directorate: Brian Topp and Sue Milling

• Close to 60 full time members from provinces such as: Ontario,

Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, B.C, and Nova Scotia

LAYER CAKE STRATEGY

• Conveying the message at various levels:

leader’s tour,

ndp.ca, TV and radio,

and war room

WAR ROOM

• Provided information for campaign team to respond to daily events,

project perspectives, learn opponents, and keep messages flowing

• Media experienced “war room fatigue”, as many messages were

being ignored by the media

• Immediate response was to reduce amount of material sent to the

media, less spin

FINANCES

•In 2004, reforms banned donations from corporations, trade unions, and other associations • Posed challenge for NDP, as trade unions contributed roughly 28% of the revenue for campaigns • Legislation provided a quarterly allowance for each party, to compensate based on the number of votes each party had received in the previous

Therefore, larger parties received more allowances, reflecting their portion of votes, which outnumbered any support the NDP could gain

NEW REGIME:

NATIONAL CAMPAIGN

• After 2006 election, NDP decided to fully fund a national campaign

• With increased reimbursements and the opportunity to spend its legal maximum, the campaign had a clear target: better resourced leader’s tour, undertake expensive daily polling, and focus resources on next-tier ridings

STRATEGY AND PLATFORM

LAYTON vs HARPER

• Decision to present Layton as Harper’s main opposition was in response to thoughts that the NDP might be framed out of the competition

• With Dion vs. Harper framing already existing, Layton wanted to gain some of the attention too

GOING BOLD

• Announcing Layton as running for Prime Minister, the NDP aimed to disrupt the conventional story of the election and put NDP in the spotlight

• Layton attacked Harper through a unified focus, and improvement in numbers made it clear to them that their tactics were working

THEMES

• Protection of middle-class and working families from economic insecurity

• Protection of families from declining healthcare

• Protection of the environment

DEVELOPING PLATFORM

• Felt it was crucial mot to promote any personal tax increases and to make strong case of not using pragmatic approaches to spending money

• Platform was then constructed to put “needs of the kitchen table” first

STEP-BY-STEP APPROACH

• Put out one announcement per day, kept the media coverage constant. • 3rd week, released platform

CONSERVATIVE FOCUS

• Liberal focus was ignored, and targeted towards Harper who was opposed to Dion, which then took the heat off the Liberals

• However, the campaign deviated from ignoring the Liberals once they pleaded with NDP voters to “vote strategically”

• Layton then began the “two flank battle”

FRAMING THE BALLOT QUESTION

• Campaign strategists insisted framing the ballot question for past and potential NDP voters• Converted Conservatives’ ballot question• Combined leadership and economic themes in the ballot question, targeting the middle class

LEADER’S TOUR

• Well resourced and critical part of campaign

• Launched with Layton’s announcement, he was “running for the

Prime Minister’s job since Stephen Harper had quit”

• Liberals were stumbling

• few visits to NDP incumbent constituencies; ’08 campaign was run

almost exclusively in opponent held ridings

VIDEO: TIME TO CHOOSE CHANGE

LEADER’S TOUR

• “Rallies for Change”—Continued to reinforce idea of Layton versus Harper frame• Ontario received less attention than previously in the ’06 tour • Major problem during first week of campaign—Layton expressed that Elizabeth May should be excluded from leaders’ debates• Overall, success in creating highly professional tour in ’08

• However, data still suggested Layton suffered from being a leader of a third party

POLLING

• NDP contracted private polling since ’06 election

• Polling focused on riding clusters around the next tier ridings; daily tracking polls

• Private polling is important!• Provided strategists with guidance with regard to campaign theme• Itinerary could be adjusted based on information extracted

COMMUNICATIONS

• NDP communications group provided national advertising for both electronic and print media

• E-campaign grew rapidly

• Many important electronic innovations; reiterated idea of modernization• Traditional advertising, mainly broadcast media, still had its place • Gaining a stronger foothold on Quebec was an important objective• More targeted communication with immigrant communities

CANDIDATES

• NDP sought high quality candidates • Required to reflect well on the party• Represent the diversity of Canadian society

• In the end, they attracted a number of notable candidates

CANDIDATES - QUEBEC

THOMAS MULCAIR

CANDIDATES - QUEBEC

THOMAS MULCAIR

ANNA DAWSON

CANDIDATES – N.L.

JACK HARRIS

CANDIDATES – EDMONTON

LINDA DUNCAN

CANDIDATES – B.C.

MICHAEL BUYERS

AFFIRMATIVE ACTION POLICY

• Designed to achieve gender parity as well as to include significant no. of visible minorities, First nations, and youth candidates• In this election:

104 (34%) of the party’s candidates were women32 visible minorities11 First nations25 youth candidates (under 26 yrs of age)

• 2006 Election108 candidates were women21 visible minorities5 First nations36 youth

ELECTION RESULTS

• NDP’s proportion of the national popular vote increased by just 0.7% • The party retained its remaining seats and picked up 10 more

Newfoundland & LabradorQuebecOntarioPrairiesBritish Columbia

CONCLUSION

• Themes in the NDP performance:

• MODERNIZATION

• INCREMENTAL PROGRESS

• CHALLENGE of RELEVANCE

MODERNIZATION

• Requirement to run under a fully funded national campaign

• Effective use of electronic web-based social media

• Policy Terms aggressively engaging to economic issues

INCREMENTAL PROGRESS

• Since 2000, NDP has shown footholds in a number of regions, and far more professional, better-financed national campaigns

• The standard now was to be at the centre of national partisan

CHALLENGE of RELEVANCE

• 2008 campaign suggests that the party is making headway to establish relevancy to the next tier of voters• Jack Layton has to be hard pressed to be leader above Michael Ignatieff

NDP has rejected new right populism in favour of a broadly left populist appeal

NDP

NDP WHEEL OF FORTUNE!

PUZZLE 1:

Clue: Voter Strategy

NDP WHEEL OF FORTUNE!

PUZZLE 2:

Clue: Campaign Theme

NDP WHEEL OF FORTUNE!

PUZZLE 3:

Clue: Communications Strategy

NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY